Property-mad Brits (they love their housing ladder), who also love going to Florida on holiday (why for the life of me I can't figure out) are getting destroyed now that Florida's housing market is crashing.
June 30, 2007
Property-mad Brits (they love their housing ladder), who also love going to Florida on holiday (why for the life of me I can't figure out) are getting destroyed now that Florida's housing market is crashing.
Regressing Toward the Mean: Here it is folks - the dirty list of how far real estate prices could/should crash city by city
From John Burns Real Estate Consulting. If you're in one of the top cities, get ready for an economic collapse the likes you've never seen before:
Resale Home Prices Are Likely to Fall in Many Markets
We calculated how much prices would have to fall for housing costs (including mortgage payments, property taxes and down payments) to return to each market’s typical ratio of housing costs / income.
City / Current Price / Price Drop % / Price Drop $
Miami, FL $350,000 -41.4% -$145,000
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA $390,000 -41.0% -$160,000
Los Angeles, CA $570,000 -39.5% -$225,000
Baltimore, MD $284,858 -37.2% -$105,858
Orange County, CA $720,000 -34.0% -$245,000
Washington D.C., DC-VA-MD-WV $404,517 -33.3% -$134,517
Las Vegas, NV $305,975 -33.0% -$100,975
Seattle, WA $415,000 -31.9% -$132,500
Portland, OR-WA $280,000 -31.4% -$88,000
Oakland, CA $635,500 -30.0% -$190,500
Sacramento, CA $375,000 -29.3% -$110,000
San Diego, CA $565,000 -29.2% -$165,000
Orlando, FL $245,000 -28.6% -$70,000
Phoenix, AZ $263,000 -24.0% -$63,000
Baton Rouge, LA $179,306 -22.5% -$40,306
Fort Myers, FL $255,000 -22.4% -$57,000
Myrtle Beach, SC $207,816 -20.6% -$42,816
Tucson, AZ $230,000 -20.4% -$47,000
Boise City, ID $213,498 -20.4% -$43,498
Virginia Beach, VA-NC $235,034 -20.0% -$47,034
Tampa, FL $190,000 -18.4% -$35,000
Minneapolis, MN-WI $234,000 -15.0% -$35,000
New York, NY-NJ $500,282 -13.0% -$65,282
Jacksonville, FL $187,000 -11.2% -$21,000
Salt Lake City, UT $233,013 -9.9% -$23,013
St. Louis, MO-IL $166,250 -9.8% -$16,250
San Antonio, TX $145,700 -9.4% -$13,700
More cities here
Here's the list, and what they had to say about little ol' HP.
Funny they think HP is an "American blog" even though I'm sitting a few blocks away from their office in London. But then again, the Arizona Republic thought HP was an Arizona blog, even though I'm thousands of miles away in England.
Gotta love the MSM...
Top 25 property blogs
We've scanned cyberspace to for the best property blogs on the web... Enjoy
American blog with a decidedly pessimistic slant, it nonetheless brings you loads of property market news and a gazillion links to other useful places on the web.
Posted by blogger at 6/30/2007
Now that the stupidity didn't pass, here's Ron Paul on what we really need to do regarding illegal immigration
Why are some things so obvious to Ron Paul and most HP'ers, yet so confusing or shocking to others?
If Congress now proceeds to do NOTHING on immigration, then 2008 must be a year where every single incumbent is swept out of office.
Here's Ron Paul:
Border Security and Immigration Reform
The talk must stop. We must secure our borders now. A nation without secure borders is no nation at all. It makes no sense to fight terrorists abroad when our own front door is left unlocked. This is my six point plan:
Physically secure our borders and coastlines. We must do whatever it takes to control entry into our country before we undertake complicated immigration reform proposals.
Enforce visa rules. Immigration officials must track visa holders and deport anyone who overstays their visa or otherwise violates U.S. law. This is especially important when we recall that a number of 9/11 terrorists had expired visas.
No amnesty. Estimates suggest that 10 to 20 million people are in our country illegally. That’s a lot of people to reward for breaking our laws.
No welfare for illegal aliens. Americans have welcomed immigrants who seek opportunity, work hard, and play by the rules. But taxpayers should not pay for illegal immigrants who use hospitals, clinics, schools, roads, and social services.
End birthright citizenship. As long as illegal immigrants know their children born here will be citizens, the incentive to enter the U.S. illegally will remain strong.
Pass true immigration reform. The current system is incoherent and unfair. But current reform proposals would allow up to 60 million more immigrants into our country, according to the Heritage Foundation. This is insanity.
Legal immigrants from all countries should face the same rules and waiting periods.
1) Pulling a listing off of the MLS and putting it right back on, to make it look like it's a fresh listing with zero days on market
2) Pulling a listing that sells below asking price and relisting it on day of close at selling price, to make it look like the market isn't crashing
3) Steering a sheeple to a certain mortgage broker because the realtor is getting an illegal under-the-table cash kickback (or hookers or cocaine) (hello IRS?)
4) Contracting work with an appraiser who "makes the numbers work" in return for the appraiser "making the numbers work"
5) Recommending the sheeple take out a toxic loan with a low payment so that the sheeple buys a higher priced home so the realtor makes a bigger commission
6) Working on against-the-law cash-back-at-close deals
7) Lying on mortgage applications and not reporting taxes due on their own investment properties
8) Being realtors in the first place
9) Accepting bribes (in the form of undisclosed commission bonuses) from builders or home sellers without declaring the bribe to the sheeple
10) Use photoshop to make a listing look nicer than it really is (who needs those pesky power lines?)
11) Using a straw buyer, inflate the price of a sale, get a bogus commission, then extract the cash difference between real price and sale price and take your dirty share
12) Intentionally make the property tough to show to other real estate clerks, so that the listing agent can find his own buyer (at an uncompetitive price) thus taking the full 6% and screwing the sheeple
What did I miss? And what kind of profession is it when it's so easy to list so many swindles?
June 29, 2007
Here's desperate insider sales transactions at heap-o-trouble Countrywide, look at just May and June alone
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the wise words of Lawrence Yun, newly appointed "Senior Economist" of the National Association of Realtors
We all know the NAR and US Government housing numbers are bullsh*t, as the price data doesn't include the rampant and desperate incentives and cash-back kickbacks used to move dead inventory.
Well, Lennar in their horrific numbers this week exposed the average incentive used to move a new home last month.
Their reported new home price plummeted from $322,000 to $298,000, down $24,000, or down 7.4% vs. last year.
And their average incentive value last month?
So that new home that sold for $322,000 last year? It's only really worth $254,000 today, a drop of $68,000 or 22%, and we're going even lower.
The new home price data is bullsh*t. And builders are in total firesale mode today (and so are their stocks)
Lennar Swings To Loss On Lower Home Prices As Supply Builds
For the second quarter, home deliveries fell to 8,940 from 12,506 a year earlier. The average home price dropped to $298,000 from $322,000 in the year- ago period. To attract uncertain buyers, Lennar said sales incentives averaged $ 43,700 a home versus $24,700 in the same quarter last year.
Orders for new homes plunged 31% to 8,056 from the prior year with the cancellation rate running at 29%.
This quote will be one for the ages. Kinda like "we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators" and "I did not have sexual relations with that woman"
Here's Paulson in all of his laughable, bizarre, corrupt, misguided, lying glory:
WASHINGTON - The major slump in the housing market is nearing an end and should not have a significant impact on the overall economy, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday.
"We have had a major housing correction in this country," Paulson said in an interview with a small group of reporters at the Treasury Department. "I do believe we are at or near the bottom."
"It doesn't pose a risk to the economy overall," he said.
June 28, 2007
Akaka (D-HI)Bennett (R-UT)Biden (D-DE)Boxer (D-CA)Cantwell (D-WA)Cardin (D-MD)Carper (D-DE)Casey (D-PA)Clinton (D-NY)Conrad (D-ND)Craig (R-ID)Dodd (D-CT)Durbin (D-IL)Feingold (D-WI)Feinstein (D-CA)Graham (R-SC) Gregg (R-NH)Hagel (R-NE)Inouye (D-HI)Kennedy (D-MA)Kerry (D-MA)Klobuchar (D-MN)Kohl (D-WI)Kyl (R-AZ)Lautenberg (D-NJ)Leahy (D-VT)Levin (D-MI)Lieberman (ID-CT)Lincoln (D-AR)Lott (R-MS)Lugar (R-IN)Martinez (R-FL) McCain (R-AZ)Menendez (D-NJ)Mikulski (D-MD)Murray (D-WA)Nelson (D-FL)Obama (D-IL)Reed (D-RI)Reid (D-NV)Salazar (D-CO)Schumer (D-NY)Snowe (R-ME)Specter (R-PA)Whitehouse (D-RI)Wyden (D-OR)
Posted by blogger at 6/28/2007
Posted by blogger at 6/28/2007
And then Congress passed a law per their REIC masters making gains on home sales non-taxable
And then the Fed inexplicably lowered interest rates to 1%
And then thousands and thousands of people became mortgage brokers and realtors
And then CDOs and toxic loans were invented
And then China manipulated long term interest rates
And then homebuilders started building an insane amount of inventory
And then sheeple lined up outside of new home developments to be lucky enough to buy a home, and told everyone they knew that they were stupid to rent, and to buy as many homes as they could
And then TV shows came out about how easy it was to get rich flipping houses, and Time magazine went goo-goo for housing
And then 20-year-olds could get $2.4 million in loans with no income and no job
And then appraisers got paid kickbacks to "make the numbers work"
And then Bush told everyone to buy a home, regardless of cost
And then Greenspan told people to take out adjustable rate mortgages, even though he'd be raising interest rates again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again
And then it all caved in... Oh, did it all cave in...
"Psychological factors," he said, explained buyer reluctance to jump into the market at the present time.
How Yun and his ilk are able to cite "psychological factors" as the reason for anything is an exercise in tautological meaninglessness that continues to baffle How the World Works. If you're going to blame consumer psychology when the market is headed down, then in all fairness you should blame it when the market is going up.
Psychological factors are always in play, whether a market is going up or down. We've been giving Yun a chance to establish some street cred, but with each whine about buyer psychology, our willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt takes another hit.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, said Tuesday the subprime mortgage crisis gripping U.S. financial markets was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy.
Gross said there are hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), derivatives on subprime RMBS and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that buy subprime RMBS and/or the derivatives on the RMBS - all of which he considers "toxic waste."
Gross, who manages the $104 billion PIMCO Total Return Fund, said the subprime crisis "may be just what the Fed has been looking for - easy credit becoming less easy; excessive liquidity returning to more rational levels," he added.
Beazer Accountant Fired in Document Destruction Try
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Beazer Homes USA Inc., a homebuilder that's under investigation by the FBI for potential fraud, fired its chief accounting officer for violating the company's ethics policy by attempting to destroy documents.
Beazer fired Michael Rand after an internal probe of the company's mortgage origination business, according to a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Messages left at Rand's home and with Leslie Kratcoski, a Beazer spokeswoman, were not immediately returned.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation opened an investigation of Beazer after the Charlotte Observer reported on March 25 the company sold homes to low-income buyers who couldn't afford them, using mortgages based on expectations the buyer's income would rise. That practice is prohibited by the Federal Housing Administration, which provides loan guarantees for home buyers.
June 27, 2007
The MSM is going HP
The dream of owning your own home is as American as apple pie--and (supposedly) better for you. Over and over, we are told that homeownership will make you happier, healthier and wealthier. Heck, it's even supposed to make you a better citizen.
Of course, there are times when, depending on your age, your savings and your income, buying a home can be a smart decision and an excellent way to build wealth. But is buying a home really such a universally good idea?
It's hard to separate fact from propaganda.
Certainly, the virtues of ownership have been preached loudly and from on high. As early as the 1920s, Herbert Hoover extolled home ownership as a pillar of family life. Nearly 80 years later, President Bush reiterated the message, stating "there's no greater American value than owning something, owning your own home and having the opportunity to do so."
But to realize that America's mania for home-buying is out of all proportion to sober reality, one needs to look no further than the current subprime lending mess. In the last decade, riskier lending practices combined with historically low interest rates and federal subsidies have encouraged a wave of low- and moderate-income households to buy homes.
As interest rates--and mortgage payments--have started to climb, many of these new owners are having difficulty making ends meet. At the moment, a record 250,000 mortgages are in foreclosure--that works out to more than 0.5% of the entire U.S. mortgage market.
So if something in your gut--or on your bank statement--tells you that now is not the right time to buy, resist the pressure. There may be no place like home, but there's no reason you can't rent it.
The good news for homebuilders, versus software firms, is that they don't have to go through an interview process and H1-B visas.
No, our homebuilder friends just illegally use illegals who illegally walked over the border. Or "used" I should say, as the millions of illegals who used to build homes are no longer needed.
But for the Microsofts, etc of the world, who want to import smart yet cheap people (on planes) to replace American workers, check out this video. Nice to see the system being gamed so easily.
Get the feeling that corruption in our modern American society is everywhere folks?
June 26, 2007
Or the worst one, someone in their twenties whose last real job was working at Best Buy who didn't go to college and who runs around town blabbing that he or she is a "real estate investor"?
In other words, and more importantly, do you know the guy who at the very bottom of the housing crash cycle (in 2010 or 2015 or whenever that is) will throw in the towel in disgust and capitulation (at which point HP'ers will know it's safe to buy again).
Posted by blogger at 6/26/2007
Key stat is gonna be selling price this year versus LAST YEAR, while the MSM will try to confuse the sheeple with May versus April comparisons. Also don't forget the margin of error on this report is like 13% either way - so why we even look at it I'm not sure but it's usually fun.
New-Home Sales in U.S. Probably Fell in May After April Surge
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. probably dropped last month, ending speculation that a jump in April sales signaled a recovery in demand, economists said before a government report today.
Sales fell 6 percent to an annual pace of 922,000 in May from a 981,000 rate the previous month, according to the median of 71 economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Purchases unexpectedly surged 16 percent in April, the most in 14 years.
A jump in mortgage rates this month and a glut of unsold properties on the market will continue to discourage home buying and construction, economists said. The housing slump, already the worst since 1991, will restrain the economy for the rest of the year and potentially into next.
``Builders are continuing to be quite cautious and are taking actions to bring the supply of homes more in line with the demand,'' said Drew Matus, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York.
The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue the new-home sales report in Washington at 10 a.m. Estimates ranged from 850,000 to 990,000.
June 25, 2007
When we as a country have plummeting housing prices, millions face bankruptcy, foreclosure and unemployment.
FLASH: Used home sales fall yet again - supposedly down 10% vs last year, dead wood inventory at 9 months, prices fall yet again
Sales down, inventory up, prices down.
Oh, you'll see the lazy MSM report the NAR's "down 0.3%" as their headline number. Why? Because sales in May at an annual rate vs. April's annual rate fell by that amount. When we all know the only real number to look at is May 2007 vs. May 2006. But that would be to tough for the MSM to do. It's much easier to take the NAR's spin and report it as the news.
And remember, this NAR number (to be trusted like Enron) doesn't include rampant incentives and cash-back, and is a 40% sampling of MLS sales.
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in May to the lowest in almost four years, reinforcing concerns about a protracted housing slump.
The supply of homes for sale increased 5 percent to 4.43 million. At the current sales pace, that represented 8.9 months' worth, the highest since June 1992 and up from 8.4 months' worth at the end of the prior month.
The median price of an existing home fell 2.1 percent last month from a year ago to $223,700, the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, the Realtors group said.
Housing accounts for about 23 percent of the U.S. economy, when taking into account purchases of furniture, appliances and items for new homes.
I hate to say it, but I think the majority is STILL in denial. We've got a long way to go.
Capitulation will be an interesting time in America. An interesting time indeed.
But it's PANIC I'm interested in today. Will we recognize it when it hits? Will there one single catalyst? Will you start seeing "housing panic" in media headlines? And when will it hit?
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a winner! The dumbest "we've hit bottom" quote so far - Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis
How do boobs like this get jobs running large American publicly traded companies? Boy, will we laugh and laugh a few years from now at these kinds of stellar predictions. Just like we laugh at classic "we've hit bottom" great depression quotes today
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years will begin to ease in the next month or two, and job growth will lift home prices and spur construction early next year, Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said.
``The drag stops in the next few months,'' Lewis said in an interview yesterday in New York. ``It's just about to be over. We're seeing the worst of it.''
June 24, 2007
The second quarter is coming to a close. Watch Ron Paul shock the GOP with the amount of $$$ he raised...
Of course, if you'd like to get that total up even more, you can send RP a few bucks here
Beauty of the internet. A million $10 donations is a lot more effective than parties with fat cats and NAR lobbyists any day
My guess - RP is gonna be #4 in GOP fundraising (assume Fred's #s won't be in Q2), potentially coming close to DOA McCain at #3. And watch for McCain and a few others to be dropping out by September
RP gets to #3 in fundraising and the media will have a cow!
Here's an overview of the Bank Panic of 1907. Good reading for those interested in the current Bear Stearns / Hedge Fund / Merrill Lynch / CDO / Subprime debacle now firmly underway. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it...
The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis in the United States. The stock market fell nearly 50% from its peak in 1906, the economy was in recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies.
In March 1907, over-expansion and poor speculation led to a stock market crash. Money became extremely tight. A second crash occurred in October 1907. This time, the crash was directly precipitated by Heinze's brothers, who had used money borrowed from Knickerbocker Trust in a failed attempt to corner United Copper.
Don't realtors know they're SHOUTING and RUDE when they spell out their name as REALTOR? Are they truly this STUPID?
Just another pet peeve of mine about our REALTOR friends, who are probably the worst marketers I've ever seen. I truly think the NAR is run by MONKEYS.
Being "Suzanned" would be (from HP'er Area 51):
*Man sees bubble and balks at joining the frenzy.
*Wife lets nesting instincts and desire to look fabulous get the better of her.
*Wife browbeats weak husband into making the worst financial decision of their lives.
*Suzanne gets paid.
*Couple's finances and life are ruined.
Dammit, I so got totally "Suzanned" on this damn house! Or "I can't believe I let myself get "Suzanned". Now I'm ruined!
Here she is, in all her glory, followed by a review in Slate.
As for "The Debate": It's terrifying. The problem lies in the performances. That beleaguered husband, dough-faced and weary, seems highly sympathetic as he expresses a few doubts about this major life decision.
Meanwhile, the wife (who looks like a more hostile Mary Louise Parker—though she lacks MLP's patented bone-dry delivery) just knits her eyebrows at the guy like he's unfathomably dense. Later, she jabs him with an accusatory "What?!"—her eyes wide and wild, her neck muscles flexed, her head twitching in disbelief at what a ninny her husband's turned out to be.
The capper comes when their real estate agent, who we discover has been listening in on what should be a private and delicate moment, takes sides with the wife and thereby crumbles the husband's defenses. Don't listen to her, John. Of course your agent wants you to buy a house you can't afford—she gets a bigger commission!
Just when you thought the subprime CDO mess couldn't get any worse, it's gonna get a LOT worse real quick, thank you Bear Stearns hedge fund blowup
"This would force other hedge funds to similarly mark down the value of their holdings. Is it any wonder that Wall street is pulling out the stops to avoid such a catastrophe?," Schiff said.
It's a Ponzi Scheme. Isn't that wildly apparent?
When your kids no longer want to go to university, and instead want to become real estate investors and homedebtors since that's where the real money is, you know not only are you post-peak, but you're f*cked.
An increasing number of young Britons are choosing to skip university in a bid to get onto the housing ladder more quickly, according to a new survey.
The Lloyds TSB study found that one in ten 18 to 24-year-olds has chosen not to go into higher education in order to start saving money towards buying property.
One in three respondents called for university tuition fees to be cut in order to help bring down the average first-time buyer age.
It seems that homebuying is now more important to many young Britons than getting a degree, with three quarters of respondents saying that homeownership is the goal they would most like to achieve before turning 30 – coming ahead of getting married and having children.
June 23, 2007
realtors ask God to bring back the housing bubble & big commission checks. Wouldn't Satan be a more sympathetic ear?
But come on, a realtor prayer breakfast, to appeal to the supreme architect of the universe for higher home prices and soaring realtor commissions? Do they actually believe God would be in favor of the housing bubble?
What the realtors don't realize is that if they want the housing bubble and their money flow to return, they're wasting their time appealing to God. The Church of Satan would be a better bet.
DESTIN — More than 300 people with a keen interest in the Emerald Coast’s real estate market gathered Wednesday at Destiny Worship Center to ask for God’s blessing.
The Real Estate Prayer Luncheon was organized in hopes of breathing life and positive thinking into the area’s slumping housing market.
It was the first of what the organizers — co-owner of Crye Leike Coastal Realty Wanda Duke, former Destin City Councilman Mel Ponder and Destiny Worship Center Pastor Steve Vaggalis — hope will become a regular, uplifting event.
“The heartbeat of today’s economic community is on the backs of the real estate community,” Ponder told the crowd.
“We need to think positively and get everyone on the same page,” Duke said. “Positive things that come out of your mouth will end with positive results. If we lose hope, we lose everything.”
The luncheon ended with Vaggalis inviting all Realtors present to come to the front of the church auditorium for a special prayer directed toward them.
“We are helpless people turning to a helpful God,” Vaggalis said. “That’s what this luncheon is all about.”
Posted by blogger at 6/23/2007
June 22, 2007
Bank of America: Bear Stearn's CDO hedge fund blow-up is "tip of the iceberg", IndyMac and Countrywide next
Losses in the U.S. mortgage market may be the “tip of the iceberg,” Bank of America Corp. analysts said today in a note for clients.
Higher interest rates have yet to affect many home owners who took out adjustable-rate mortgages, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said. Interest payments on about $900 billion of the riskiest subprime home-loans are due to increase this year and next, the analysts wrote.
Bear Stearns Cos., the second-biggest underwriter of mortgage bonds, plans to assume $3.2 billion of loans to stop creditors from taking over assets of one of its hedge funds, people with knowledge of the proposal said. Concern about the collapse of the funds, which made bad bets on mortgage-backed securities, sent bonds and stocks of finance companies lower.
“The demise of two Bear Stearns managed leveraged mortgage funds could be the tipping point of a broader fallout from subprime mortgage credit deterioration,” wrote Bank of America analysts led by Robert Lacoursiere in New York.
Countrywide Financial Corp. and IndyMac Bancorp Inc., two of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders, may suffer more than other finance companies because they hold mortgages themselves as well as selling them on to investors, the analysts wrote. They may not have set aside enough money to cover losses, said Bank of America, which has a “sell” recommendation on both lenders
Merrill Lynch supposedly to hold onto $850 million subprime cancer CDOs taken from Bear Stearns' blown up mortgage hedge fund
NEW YORK -- Merrill Lynch & Co. has backed away from a threat to dump about $850-million (U.S.) of securities it seized from Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds, according to people with knowledge of its plans.
Who was the most ignorant and irrational market player during the Late Great Housing Ponzi Scheme? In other words, who's gonna be in for the biggest shock of their lives as this all caves in?
1) Homedebtors, who didn't understand P/E ratios, historical norms, interest rates, toxic loan terms, how home prices are achieved or how rampant REIC corruption was
2) Realtors, who didn't understand that it's never different this time, that the good times couldn't last, and that once the crash started, it wouldn't stop until its natural and fitting end
3) Corrupted appraisers, who didn't realize that their fraud will be some of the easiest to trace once the authorities wake up and start doing their jobs
4) The mainstream media, who took NAR press releases and printed them as gospel
5) The federal reserve, who thought blowing a new bubble to replace the NASDAQ bubble was a fine idea
6) China, who thought we would pay back those silly bonds and loans
7) Homebuilders, who wildly overpaid for land, who based their business model on illegal labor, who will be arrested by SEC authorities for cheerleading their stock while dumping it, and who destroyed yet another American industry for short term gain
8) Freespending mortgage brokers, who flamed out as fast as drkoop.com
9) Wall Street Analysts, who must have gotten their degrees at Arizona State, who evidently never read Manias, Panics and Crashes, and who were surprised by the downturn month after month after month after month
10) George W. Bush, who encouraged people to buy homes regardless of the price or fundamentals
Others: CDO holders, hedge funds, David Lereah, Sheeple, Flippers, Congress, illegal immigrants, Harvard JCHS, Brits, home retailers, local and state governments,
PBS report with regional economists on housing crash (note the NAR and fake economists like Lawrence Yun are no longer invited)
Nice to see the U of Michigan economist being honest (go blue). The guy from Texas was a bit too rosy, and ignorant of national issues and bubble causes. But then again, we know another ignorant fool from Texas, don't we.
History will not be kind to cheerleaders, or "experts" who called bottom. Again. And again. And again.
And I wonder if the NAR and Lawrence Yun are pissed they weren't invited as usual. Perhaps the days of the MSM going to the NAR and realtors for "expert opinion" are over?
Saved the CALPERS-paid arsonist from having to burn it down though...
June 21, 2007
FLASH: Treasury Secretary Paulson says housing crash over, everything fine. RELATED NEWS: Iraq war going great, US debt paid off, global warming over
I think it's entertaining to watch the worst Presidential administration in the history of the United States do their thing. They keep on shocking and surprising with their incompetence and mismanagement.
If (choke, cough) you were a REALTOR (gag) and wrote about market conditions for Realty Times, what would you say (to drive commissions)?
Serious question. Here's my serious answer for the dimwits out there still trying to slog dead houses:
Real Estate Conditions - Phoenix, Arizona - Reported by your REALTOR, HousingPANIC:
An epic housing collapse is upon us, and Phoenix is the epicenter of this meltdown. If you own a home, I highly recommend getting it on the market, NOW, and price it to sell on day one - in other words, "drama pricing" and undercut your neighbors. Your goal should be to get out of that house ASAP, as it's only going to get worse from here on out, with skyrocketing inventory, desperate new homebuilders, and a total collapse in demand. This downturn will last years.
If you are in the market to buy a home, I'll help you with lowball offers until we get the house you want at a fair price. What's a fair price in this market? Your monthly payments should be less than what the house could generate in rent. And you should be thinking 30% - 50% off of peak pricing today. Sellers have never been this desperate, ever. There are foreclosures all over the city, and homeowners just want out.
From the enemy playbook: Here's how ramen-eating real estate clerks are spinning the housing crash now
1) How dumb do these guys think we are?
2) How dumb are these guys?
Here's a random laugh-out-loud sampling from den of thieves Realty Times. Post more gems here...
If you are looking to buy, there may not be a better time than NOW! Prices are softening due to the current excessive inventory. Buyers are able to negotiate on homes, including price, home warranties, and closing costs in today's market. There are many anxious sellers waiting for an offer.
GREETINGS FROM PHOENIX! Indicators show that Phoenix currently is a neutral market. Real estate is ALWAYS a great investment and time ALWAYS proves me right!
Finally a normal market. Don't believe all of the gloom and doom you here in the media about the housing market. If the home looks good, smells good & is priced good it will sell.
With prices evening out we are now at the bottom of this buyers market. Many homes are priced at or below appraised value. So, if you have been waiting on the sidelines now is the time to make a move.
Naples, Florida is a paradise and will remain as one of the most desirable cities to live in the U.S. Naples has experienced very rapid growth and appreciation. This growth is projected to continue fueling our local Real Estate Market. Real Estate cycles have their ups and downs and if you are thinking about buying- Now is the time.
Well...FINALLY, it looks like the market has bottomed...and the deals for buyers have NEVER been better!
Home sales appear to be bottoming out with lower home prices attracting buyers in many areas of the country
The Las Vegas area is exeriencing significant price drops due to the high inventory levels and the new booming foreclosure market. Market conditions are ripe for the home buyer to get a deal on a home at prices that are cheaper than what you can build a home for today.
With summer, optomisum, growth and renewal are in the air. Don't worry sellers, the market is definitely on the rise
Real Estate market is good in Sacramento area.
Yes, the market is "softening" but not "crashing" - there is no "Bubble" here! Why wait for the market to go even lower?
Posted by blogger at 6/21/2007
What five US cities / areas will have the biggest housing crashes over the next 2 years?
Which five US cities / areas will fare the best?
Here's the latest "markets that are gonna crash" report from PMI:
Riverside, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Las Vegas, NV, and West Palm Beach, FL rank highest on the index, with a 60 percent or greater chance that home prices will be lower in two years.
Five of the 11 MSAs facing a greater than 50 percent chance of a price decline are in California (Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Oakland, Sacramento, and San Diego) and four are in Florida (Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa); the other two are Boston, MA and Washington, D.C.
Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania MSAs constitute the lowest ranked group-those facing a less than 10 percent chance of lower prices.
"What the markets with the greatest risk of decline have in common is a history of price volatility: rapidly rising rates of price appreciation above the long-term average followed by a recent sharp slowdown in the rate of appreciation," Milner explained. "Markets with a history of volatility are more likely to see price declines in the future. MSAs with a history of low to moderate rates of volatility in house price appreciation have a lower risk of price declines."
Easily perceived or understood; quite apparent.
Warning: This article will totally bum you out - "Blood bath", "recession", "prices going lower", "there isn't a recovery"
A year and a half of doing HP, 3,000+ posts later, I think this is the ugliest article I've ever posted.
And the most spot-on. Hat-tip Richard for the link.
Get ready HP'ers. The days of spin, hype, cheerleading and "we've hit bottom" are over.
We've only just begun...
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.
The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.
``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''
``It's not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.
``There isn't a recovery about to happen,'' said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder. The company's stock tumbled 42 percent this year through yesterday.
``When all these people see their mortgage payment and it's up 40 or 50 percent, they're going to say, `We can't stay in this house,''' Pimco's Kiesel said. ``And there are millions of people in this situation.''
Roubini predicts the decline in U.S. home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.
Some owners are selling their homes at ``fire sale'' prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.
``Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,'' White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said
June 20, 2007
Yes, 24% versus last year. The only number that really matters. And to spin permits as "up" is like spinning Bush is "soaring"
I hate the mainstream media. They're incompetent, and when they're not being incompetent, they're corrupt.
And because there is no longer a fourth estate, we get into the messes we're in today.
Here's a columnist from Motley Fool who did his job yesterday. Voice in the wilderness.
May Housing Starts Tumble
Housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.47 million, down 2.1% from the downwardly revised April estimate, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. On a year-over-year basis, the May housing starts dropped 24.2%.
But here's a selection of headlines from papers that should be shut down:
Housing starts fell 2% in May; building permits rose 3%
US housing starts fall 2% in May
US Housing starts decline 2.1% in May
May Housing Starts Fall 2.1%, but Permit Activity Picks Up
Housing Starts: Is the Worst Behind Us?
Do you think ignorant ramen eating realtors are finally coming to the conclusion that no, it's not going to get better soon and yes, a housing crash that will cause them to eventually seek new employment is now firmly underway?
June 19, 2007
FLASH: Nicholas Retsinas, HP hater and discredited head of the corrupted Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, comes clean. Kinda.
HP'ers are familiar with the laughable and discredited Retsinas, and his list of REIC puppetmasters.
HP has a simple message for the stock-pumping, lying, deceiving, illegal-immigrant-hiring, system-gaming, short-term-thinking, insider-stock-trading homebuilder CEO swindlers whose bloody hands are all over the dead housing industry's corpse.
June 18, 2007
Here's my take. It's all based on leverage, and as we know now, with stocks you can get 50% margin or leverage. With homes, it's infinite - $0 can get you $1,000,000 or more. Lose 10% on $1 million of leverage/debt, you're bankrupt. Heck, even little kids can get $2.4 million with nothing to back it up.
5%: Correction / Bust / Adjustment
10%: Housing Panic
15%: Epic Historic Housing Crash
20%: Housing Devastation
25%: The end of all that is sane and holy real estate meltdown
30%: Are those locusts? Grandpa get your gun! Housing Armageddon
Interesting thing is that in some markets, we're already seeing 30% off. This one will be for the history books. Wonder what they'll call it?
NEW YORK: Many Americans fear the consequences of a housing bust, but few know what one would really look like.
Think about it. How far do housing prices have to fall before a slump becomes a bust?
In the stock market, we have a pretty good idea what a crash is. Among stock market experts, there is a consensus that a 10 percent decline in a major index is a correction while a 20 percent decline is more significant: a crash or a bear market, depending on the time involved. For the macro economy, there is also agreed-upon terminology. For example, a recession means two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product.
But when it comes to declines in housing prices, there is no such framework. As experts debate whether we are headed for a housing bust, you would think that we should at least be able to define it.
The problem is that economists have not agreed on a definition. In part, that is because severe declines in housing prices tend to be rare events, not a common subject for discussion. The last really big decline in national housing prices occurred more than 70 years ago, during the Great Depression. Another reason is that the data measuring the housing market is far more opaque than that for the stock market.