June 21, 2007

Warning: This article will totally bum you out - "Blood bath", "recession", "prices going lower", "there isn't a recovery"


A year and a half of doing HP, 3,000+ posts later, I think this is the ugliest article I've ever posted.

And the most spot-on. Hat-tip Richard for the link.

Get ready HP'ers. The days of spin, hype, cheerleading and "we've hit bottom" are over.

We've only just begun...

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.

``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''

``It's not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.

``There isn't a recovery about to happen,'' said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder. The company's stock tumbled 42 percent this year through yesterday.

``When all these people see their mortgage payment and it's up 40 or 50 percent, they're going to say, `We can't stay in this house,''' Pimco's Kiesel said. ``And there are millions of people in this situation.''

Roubini predicts the decline in U.S. home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.

Some owners are selling their homes at ``fire sale'' prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.

``Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,'' White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said

82 comments:

Devil's Advocate said...

Just because Bloomberg says it does not make it so. Seriously, stop getting so excited each time you read something in the MSM. I'll bet within the next week Bloomberg will have an article saying the bottom is here and now is a great time to buy.

Anything written in the MSM be it about housing, about politics, about hell I dunno vacation spots in Baja is useless. Every article has an agenda behind it and means absolutely nothing.

Anonymous said...

WOW!! 5%!!! maybe even 10%!!

That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about.

Anonymous said...

"Bloomberg" didn't say anything. Read the quotes troll

Not selling a lot of houses today?

borkafatty said...

-------------------

-------------------

Yup just finished reading that article...and if one did read it, it said maybe 3 or 4 times in said article and i quote " The downturn will not effect the economy as a hole" IE: No recession ....umm who are they trying to convince me or themselves?

We are 2 feet in a pile of shit, and no toilet paper to wipe with...oh wait let me grab a Dollar.

Anonymous said...

I sold all my stocks today

Anonymous said...

These people don't really know what level of pain will be felt as all of this reckless speculation unravels. They don't really know any more than anyone on this blog but, at this point, it does say something that they are now on the same side of the fence as the most pessismistic folks (HP) have been for quite a while. 5% - 10% loss?, 60% - 70% loss, hmmmm, I don't know but my guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between. Strap on your your tin foil hat and let's roll!

Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

Are there health benefits to bathing in blood?

borkafatty said...

70/80% in house price drop's does seem a little far fetched...I would say more like 20/30% is more realistic....Personally I think it all sucks..

And you know what bothers me the most...Ill be standing in the bread line and by the time I finally reach the point to where I get my slice, it will be nothing but Mold.

Anonymous said...

6:41..take your prozac dude it'll be OK. you know it is possible to have a different opinion and NOT be a realtor doofus.

Now be a good little paranoid Ron Paul voter and take the tinfoil hat off slowly, don't want you to get hurt now.

Anonymous said...

Housing is going down an average of 45%! I saw a computer model based on the historic and bubble drop predictions. So. California will go down about 50%. Things won't reverse until about 2014!

Anonymous said...

NOW can we throw out of the country all the conservative GOPers that votes for traitor Bush and Cheney?

Anonymous said...

well if a computer model says 45% it must be 45%. The computer model has spoken. Case closed. Shut her down. See you in 2014 everyone.

Anonymous said...

The home real estate bubble is gonna recover like the way the NASDAQ is recovering from the Dot Com bubble.

In 10 years, to hit the high water mark again. Mainly thru inflation.

Anonymous said...

"Now be a good little paranoid Ron Paul voter and take the tinfoil hat off slowly, don't want you to get hurt now."


Take off the tin foil hat, and become....like you??? Never! If anything, I'm strapping it down even tighter!

Anonymous said...

You know, wearing a tin foil hat can't be any worse than driving that pink Hummer Keith has pictured a few threads below this one. I'm not sure which would be more embarassing to be seen in at this point.

Anonymous said...

Just wait until the meltdown becomes full blown in the credit markets. Then you'll see it translate over into more visible forms in foreclosures & falling asset prices. Right now is the calm before the storm...

Anonymous said...

Man you can tell these RA trolls really are on edge. I mean putting in and taking out those signs all day in the hot Summer sun must make them a bit edgy. I bet the flapping of those little plastic flags probably is aggravating as well. However, I bet when they are dancing on the corner with a big giant arrow in their hand, they will long for the flappy flags and those cumbersome signs and the heat...and having to spin the facts and lie through their teeth. At least he is here for now and trolling the forum and away from people trying to get them into debt, and also he still has a computer for....now.

Glad you are here fighting the good fight RA troll, you are a real American hero.

burn baby burn said...

I would only buy at 1997 prices or lower.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The home real estate bubble is gonna recover like the way the NASDAQ is recovering from the Dot Com bubble.

In 10 years, to hit the high water mark again. Mainly thru inflation.

__________________________________

The nasdaq is still about 50% off it's high from SEVEN years ago. In order for it to hit that high water mark from March, 2000 again, the Nasdaq would have to return about 28% a year for the next 3 years.

Good luck with that!!!

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

LOL. Realtwhoretrolls in full screech mode today.

Tell us again how housing has never gone down and never will.

Anonymous said...

If any of you really think you'll be buying a $1M home for $300K you really need some help.

Shakster said...

Anonymous said...
WOW!! 5%!!! maybe even 10%!!

That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about.
-----------------------------------
I think we should encourage Anons to stay anonymous Kieth.They take everything printed by the Government,or Mass Media as gospel as soon as their eyes gaze upon it.
Like religeous fanatics,they never question,or verify ,or even come to their own conclusions.Whats really sad is the crippling fear within them that won't let them examine any other evidence to the contrary.
Don't worry Anons,once you untie yourself from that whipping post that you have tied yourself so tightly to,we will welcome you.Well,maybe not all of us,some HPers will certainly kill you.Oh Well.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm..sorry Keith, I'm a HP hardcore but that article did nothing for me. By your scandalous introduction, I thought that homedebtors and realtwhores were committing "seppuku". Call me when that happens.

Anonymous said...

Tin foil hats, pink hummers, wiping yourself with the dollar?

After what's been revealed in this thread, what WOULDN'T BE appropriate!!!

Normally I'm against kicking someone when they're down but in the FB's case... I'm willing to make an exception!

DinOR

Anonymous said...

"Now be a good little paranoid Ron Paul voter and take the tinfoil hat off slowly, don't want you to get hurt now."

Hell no! I'm even listening to my weekly paracast.com podcast, as we speak. Tinfoil all the way, baby.

keith said...

"WOW!! 5%!!! maybe even 10%!!

That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about."


- Example: Listen to realtor, buy Phoenix condo for $500,000 with $25,000 down.

Condo falls 10% ($50,000). You sell.

You're down 200%, plus selling fees and carrying costs

Condo falls 20% ($100,000). You're down 400% plus selling fees and carrying costs.

Leverage - gotta love it. Can't lose money that quick in the stock market. Or pretty much anywhere for that matter.

And you'd be lucky if your Phoenix condo only fell 20% from the peak.

Anonymous said...

The problem with buying a 1 mil. home for 300K is that it will have been torched by the previous owner long before it's get's close to it's true value!

(That or bulldozed to make room for more sensible housing).

DinOR

Mark Rhymes said...

Everyone is right!

Peter Schiff and Jim Puplava are right; there is going to be inflation with all the major central banks printing money at will.

There is going to recession; Greenspan did make an uncharacteristically clear comment that as an exapansionary period grows more mature, the next recession draws closer. He then properly called the China stock market overvalued, which was about as difficult as calling an ocean, "wet".

There are going to be more mortgage defaults; you can't hand out money generously and expect the general populous to be good stewards of easy money.

Housing prices will fall further; duh!

The over-extended consumer in the face of a declining housing sector will induce the next recession.

Robert Prechter is correct on a deflationary recession ensuing.

Wait! Which is it; inflation or deflation? The answer: BOTH.

All of the above is true, it's the timing and magnitude that will separate the casual observer from the profiteer.

Harry Dent was partially right when he predicted a severe recession following the end of the baby boomers nesting phase. He also called for astronomical equity market growth right up to the year 2010 preceding that recession.

You have to get the sequence correct:

*Inflation as central banks keep the punch bowl full
*Stagnation in profits as the consumer goes to the brink
*Credit Defaults as the consumer goes beyond the brink
*Panic selling in properties without regard to what they used to be worth.
*Recession
*Deflation as the forest fires burn through all the mal-investment, all businesses will put their goods "on sale".

Two to four years of pessimistic turmoil will feel like the dark ages, wondering what happened to the "good old days". Political and economic chaos will change the players.

India and China will experience their first setback. And then when things look the most bleak, and personal balance sheets are clean again; we can cautiously climb out of recession/ deflation into a constructive expansion again.

We'll all be older, wiser and have differing points of view to who or what caused the great recession.

Our kids will hear about it; but be doomed to repeat the cycle some years later.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.

Mark Rhymes
www.marketrhymes.com

kitchenstove said...

LOL @ Anon 8:44 PM's post. That was too funny.

Yes, the trolls are on edge. They're so angry now and getting more combative by the day. Someone please get them some Ramen and a nice tall glass of Kool Aid on the rocks. Throw a few steak sandwiches in there too.

Anonymous said...

>>>Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis yesterday said the U.S. housing slump is almost over. ``The drag stops in the next few months,'' said Lewis, whose bank relies on the U.S. market for almost 90 percent of its revenue. ``We do not see a recession. Because that drag stops, you'll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters.''<<<<


man they just can't bring themselves to come clean can they?......even with the ship sinking they say that everything will be alright.........yeh sure pal.....i am supposed to believe you, after all of this???

Anonymous said...

So wait a minute. You post a link to an article that says prices will fall either 5% or 10%. This is evidence of a "bloodbath".

Yet you mock a poster who says prices will fall 5% or 10%. That poster is a troll.

How does that work?

Anonymous said...

can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.

Anyone? Anyone at all?

You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters.

keith said...

I don't agree with the quote in the article that prices will only fall 5% a year

Way too optimistic

But it's important to understand what even that rosy scenario does to people who bought homes the past couple of years.

A 10% drop is a crash. It wipes people out. Foreclosures, HUD homes, bank failures, the whole enchilada. A 10% drop on this kind of massive leverage will be one for the history books. Beyond 10% is financial armageddon

Hasn't happened since the Great Depression on a national scale, yet here we go. For a preview, go to San Diego, Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Naples, Vegas, Sacramento, etc. They're already there.

Anonymous said...

>>>Housing is going down an average of 45%! I saw a computer model based on the historic and bubble drop predictions. So. California will go down about 50%. Things won't reverse until about 2014!<<<


well that prediction is more believable. of course for me, i really don't see a come back once the economy starts down hill. when you think about it, who will buy any homes and at what prices, when there are no jobs, the money is no good, and the nation is full of wetbacks?....folks, the entire system is going to collapse and there isn't a damn thing any con man or wall street huckster can do about it......i say prepare of the coming collapse of the american way of life......buy gold and silver and lots of it and bury it for the future....and buy guns and ammo to protect what is yours too...

Anonymous said...

>>>>That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about.<<<

i got your imbecile...

Anonymous said...

>>>keith said...

I don't agree with the quote in the article that prices will only fall 5% a year

Way too optimistic

But it's important to understand what even that rosy scenario does to people who bought homes the past couple of years.

A 10% drop is a crash. It wipes people out. Foreclosures, HUD homes, bank failures, the whole enchilada. A 10% drop on this kind of massive leverage will be one for the history books. Beyond 10% is financial armageddon

Hasn't happened since the Great Depression on a national scale, yet here we go. For a preview, go to San Diego, Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Naples, Vegas, Sacramento, etc. They're already there. <<<

that's what i mean keith, the liars are lying on the way out the door......bastards.......

Anonymous said...

Holy mother of delusional people....I think you went from drinking the kool aid to running around with pitcher on your head naked.

"can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.

Anyone? Anyone at all?

You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters."

Ok....let me spend...ohh 20 seconds max on this. How about 2003 prices, or less than that?

1801 Diamond St #113 (Don't have a picture, but it's in the plaza)
San Diego, Ca. 92109
2 bdrm, 2 bath, 1032 sqft condo
Year Built: 1975
HOA: N/A (probably ~$325)
Purchase Price (12/03): $367,000
Sale Price (03/07): $363,000


Purchase Price $367,000.00
Sale Price $363,000.00
Association Dues $325.00
Holding Period(mo) 40
Mortgage Paid $79,516.67 (6.5% interest only)
Closing Costs $4,000.00
Property Tax $15,291.67
Estimated Monthly Rent $1,500.00
Estimated Monthly Loss $638.59 (if rented)
Estimated Monthly Tax Savings $556.62 (using 28% tax rate)
Sales Commission $21,780.00



Total Loss $55,323.67

Mind is a terrible thing to waste.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Don't look now but we have Global Cooling to deal with with. From Canada's National Post:

Read the sunspots
The mud at the bottom of B.C. fjords reveals that solar output drives climate change - and that we should prepare now for dangerous global cooling
R. TIMOTHY PATTERSON, Financial Post
Published: Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Politicians and environmentalists these days convey the impression that climate-change research is an exceptionally dull field with little left to discover. We are assured by everyone from David Suzuki to Al Gore to Prime Minister Stephen Harper that "the science is settled." At the recent G8 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel even attempted to convince world leaders to play God by restricting carbon-dioxide emissions to a level that would magically limit the rise in world temperatures to 2C.

Read the Post's series on Climate Change: The Deniers

Forget warming, beware the new ice age
[EXCERPT]

anoninMaine said...

[i]You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters.[/i]

Well - I can tell you from personal experience. We are looking to move to the Naples Florida area. We started poking around in early 2006, and were shocked at how expensive it was. We live New England on the coast--so we get expensive--but even inland naples was ridiculous. We put it on hold. I liked a Divosta home - it was high 400's. We went back last week to look again. I still like the Divosta home--now low 400's, and lots of freebies.

WE will continue to wait. I saw a home online--the model I want for 399,900 today. I also saw a rental of the model I want in the development we want for 1675/month.

We are about to pull the plug on purchasing and move down there and rent. Anyway--I have seen about 20% reduction on the new stuff--who knows how low resales will go.

Either way--I think I should sell our place here - now--we have not seen the drops yet. Any thoughts on that? HOw about the rental route in Florida?

By the way--this website is great. Thanks

borkafatty said...

I think Scooby said it best in the hamster thread...it will trickle down no matter what the percentage is.

g said...

San Diego has dropped AT LEAST 20% on most properties. The market is flooded with inventory so no end to the fall in sight. I don't even know how they cook the median to represent only the small drop we've had. From what I can tell, as I have been passively monitoring specific listings for a couple years, even the $1.5 mill places are selling for $1.0 mill now. That sure looks like more than a 10% drop to me.

Since there are so many morons stubbornly sticking to their prices the inventory is skyrocketing. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you MLS #: 066072467-70. Crappy condo conversion in Pacific Beach. I looked at these units over a year ago and they are a total crapfest. On the market for over a year and still not selling, yet the developer is still trying to hawk 2/2 units for 579k. They will be lucky to get $450k now. If they had dropped the prices to 500k six months ago they likely would have found some suckers, but they were just too goddam stubborn. Now they are caught in the downdraft. I would not be surprised to see this developer Sand&Sea go belly up as they have a bunch of crappy condo conversions around this town still not selling. I'm sure the CEO has already transferred most of his profits to an offshore account.

Folks, grab that popcorn, or in my case a six pack of Dos Equis, and watch the drama unfold. Hell, since my positions in the SRS and SKF have been doing so well maybe I'll grab a bottle of Bollinger instead. This is gonna be fun.

suzanne researched it... said...

**can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?**

Zillow the following house: 136 Randall Dr Zip code: 48085

If you do you will find the house sold for $238,000 1/29/04 and sold for $220,000 5/31/06. Today's current price? <<$209,400 and dropping>>

About as close as I can get to your 2005 request...

-SRI

Anonymous said...

Some markets will decline 30-50% while others might increase up to 20%. Depends where you're at. The big bubble markets in FL, NV & CA will take the biggest hits while other markets that never seen a bubble might fare quite well. Areas like Raleigh-Durham or Nashville come to mind.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

It's almost like they planned the whole thing.

1. Greenspam tells people they need to go with the new and exciting exotic stuff instead of the old boring conventional mortgage, and the sheeple go for it. CHECK!

2. The sheeple are led to believe that debt is wealth by borrowing against their homes. Nobody bothers to tell them, and they are too stupid to know, that should the price of the home go down the debt still remains and the so called housing wealth is voporized. CHECK!

3. Meanwhile in the shadows, we have the banking lobby writing the new bankruptcy law making it much harder, if not impossible, for consumers to get a second chance thereby making them life long debt slaves. CHECK!

4. Folks, we have been hosed.
The greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. CHECK!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.

Anyone? Anyone at all?

You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters.

June 20, 2007 9:45 PM
-------------
142 Christina Landing Dr Wilmington DE 19801

Sold from developer to FB:
31 Oct 2005 (Yes Halloween!!)
385k

Sold from FB to new FB:
8 Nov 06 (just over 1 year later)
350k, just under 10% but the FB left behind 5k in appliances & improvements. And lets not forget the commissions & closing costs. The 1st FB was out a grand total of 60-65k when it was all said & done.

It was a riverfront development that was really a gentrification project that is teetering on the edge of collapse. The developer has sunk millions into a condo project that he cannot turn off, deamdn has dried up & he will be sitting on 100's of vacant condo units for years. Many of the THs in the first phase were sold and resold early on pushing the prices through the roof relative to the local economy, which is very shallow and poor. There are still several fliptard TH units that are up for sale and NEVER lived in. There are several more that are being rented out for LESS than the monthly carrying costs. Many of the Condo buyers have pulled out, the developer refuses to lower the price because he feels he let the THs go cheap and now wants the "market price" for himself.

Roccman said...

"And the most spot-on. Hat-tip Richard for the link."

Damn right Keith...

And think I kid about the die off...

Happening right before our eyes!

Food shortage, economic collapse, peak oil...we are Fu F'n Bar!!!

Best hug the ones you love.

Anonymous said...

Want to know where housing prices SHOULD land? Work Backwards. Go back to the week that the Dot.com bubble burst, find the median price. Now adjust upward 3-5% for inflation for every year after that. Now find the difference between the two and that is where it should land.

Now, that is probably a fair guess but there are other factors as well. In that time frame how many homes were added by builders? Think about it this way, when you reach that adjusted price, will supply meet demand? Or have we added so much to supply that we need to adjust the price even lower?

Another key factor is credit. Once you reach the point where supply meets demand, who has the credit to qualify? When you get there will it be a mandatory 10 or 20% down? Here again you effect demand negatively due to tougher credit standards.

Lo and behold, you will not have a healthy market again until the psychology of buying and selling reach a more rational level.

Anonymous said...

Right on with the srs. I bought some for my ira. Up about 17%. Got a good feeling on that one...

Anonymous said...

Pink Hummers for everyone with a tin foil hat! (Except Bork A Fatty).

Paris Hilton

a.creampuff said...

If the underestimate was for the whole country, then maybe.

Let's say a bubble market house shot up 100% in a short span. Then 50% would represent a return to the mean, would it not? Why is 50% down unreasonable when not long ago 100% up was not unreasonable? In my bubble area, houses skyrocketed 200%, agruably more. In bubble areas, a 50% drop will get us a little closer to the long-term trend and what people can actually afford. Will it happen? Who knows? But crazy was the speculation driven high, not the hope for affordability.

Also, why base anything on million dollar homes? Only a small segment of the population is going to salivate over a drop from $1.3 M to $850,000 or whatever. Still too much house, too expensive. But run-of-the-mill "POS" houses also doubled and tripled. Is it unreasonable to think an average house will cost about average, even in the big city?

Guess I'm preaching to the choir and a couple trolls.

Anonymous said...

Keith ,you have a tough crowd tonight.You are so very correct though.The trolls laughed at the idea of housing prices falling.They never do!HAHAAAA!Then when they do,the trolls say.But they havent fallen seventy percent.HAHAHA!!!!Whatever.They are falling and falling alot.And will continue to do so.Then the trolls will be even angrier at you.Shoot the messenger comes to mind.All the while we will laugh and enjoy.FALL!!FALLLL!!!!FALLLLL!!!!!!HAHAHHAHAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

"It's almost like they planned the whole thing."

It absolutely was planned. An economy is defined by working stiffs showing up to their miserable jobs day after day after day.

The best way a country can do that is to get people in debt. The best place for that debt is in the home because, as the economists always say, everyone needs a home. A home is not a stock.

That's why I, a happy renter, love the bubble. It will keep millions of miserable people working to drive the economy and maintain my standard of living.

Greenspan may have been a genius, it just depends how bad it gets.

JBR said...

If any of you really think you'll be buying a $1M home for $300K you really need some help.

Still not catching on Anonopussy???
I don't plan on buying a 1 million dollar home for $300K. I plan on buying a $300K home for $300K that spent some time high on credit/crack in 1 million dollar range. Did you miss the Ft. Myers video??? It's only beginning. More troll postings make me even more confident I am right.

Anonopussy said...
can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?


Does this help?? Just watch and try not to laugh too hard at late 2006 buyers. Was $300K, now $145. Is that 51.6% off?????

http://www.winknews.com/news/local/7896352.html?video=YHI&t=a

Awesome site Keith.

Anonymous said...

Housing is going down an average of 45%! I saw a computer model based on the historic and bubble drop predictions. So. California will go down about 50%. Things won't reverse until about 2014!

The last recession prices went down 50%, this time will be much worse because the gains are so much greater this time around.

Anonymous said...

I would only buy at 1997 prices or lower.

Exactly, this is when prices started to accelerate and not make sense. IMO, even prices in 97' were high, who knows how low this thing will go.

devestment said...

I’m dizzy… I feel like I just got spun by pompous prognosticators spouting their version of gloom and doom. Their claims do not add up. There is a blood bath so we lower interest rates and compete in the international market while saving housing during brisk consumer spending while people loose their homes? Yep, everything OK here!
Make sure you have less than 100k at B of A!!!

Anonymous said...

nonymous said...
can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.

Anyone? Anyone at all?

You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters.
-----------------------------------
Hey, shit fer brains,

spend a little time at
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
and see for yourself.

Anonymous said...

50% off townhomes in FL for the person who asked for an example:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=10WoQZKZkNs

They still don't get it--why do you post em Keith? said...

WOW!! 5%!!! maybe even 10%!!

That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about.

That is national average. there are markets where 40% declines have been recorded and some areas that where not in the bubble have seen slight nominal increases--what part of national average do you not understand?

Anonymous said...

Actually a Realtor here in Colorado Springs told me a month ago not to buy till next Fall. Said it should be real interesting by then.

Anonymous said...

Marbella Vineyards between Seville and Power Ranch. Giulbert, AZ

San Xavier model. 3392sf. 3-5 BR, 3bath.

Price Date
1 04617608 384990 2005-05-10 03:21:44
2 04617608 399990 2005-05-14 03:20:06
3 04617608 414990 2005-06-09 03:18:27
4 04617608 417990 2005-06-23 03:19:09
5 04617608 422990 2005-07-07 03:18:57
6 04617608 427990 2005-07-13 03:22:58
7 04617608 431990 2005-07-17 03:19:07
8 04617608 433990 2005-07-24 03:19:11
9 04617608 435990 2005-08-05 03:19:21
10 04617608 438990 2005-08-18 03:19:34
11 04617608 441990 2005-08-20 03:19:43
12 04617608 444990 2005-08-31 03:20:04
13 04617608 446990 2005-09-08 03:19:30
14 04617608 447990 2005-09-10 03:19:40
15 04617608 448990 2005-09-17 03:21:25
16 04617608 449990 2005-10-16 03:19:59
17 04617608 451990 2005-11-05 03:21:53
18 04617608 441990 2006-08-21 03:17:15
19 04617608 411990 2006-08-27 03:18:17
20 04617608 391990 2006-11-23 03:20:13
21 04617608 371990 2006-12-19 03:23:30
M

June '07 371,990-41,300=330,690 (see below)


SUB REMARKS [3% TWDS CLOSING THRU PREF LENDER]CALL FOR SPEC AVAILABILITY [$30K TWDS OPTIONS THRU PREF LENDER



You basically have a whole sub "upside-down", all other models are similarly discounted. The historic run-up in values over the last 2 years is GONE! 55k BELOW May 05 price. 27% off peak price.

Info as requested. How many more do you want???

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.


Yes, I can. This website has too many to mention. And only in Sacramento. Losses far greater than 10% and Sacremento's only begun.

Any response??????

http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

I noticed Ditech's new sales pitch for mortgage products : "people are smart" .....wow, how many sheep will they pull in with that one.

Macaca


SPECTRE of Deflation said...
It's almost like they planned the whole thing.

1. Greenspam tells people they need to go with the new and exciting exotic stuff instead of the old boring conventional mortgage, and the sheeple go for it. CHECK!

2. The sheeple are led to believe that debt is wealth by borrowing against their homes. Nobody bothers to tell them, and they are too stupid to know, that should the price of the home go down the debt still remains and the so called housing wealth is voporized. CHECK!

Mike said...

check out new jersey listings. you will find more than 10 % drop in prices and start reading facts rather than gossip.

Guy Daley said...

Goodgod anonypussy, you've got to do more than just read your junk mail. Go to this website and you'll have all the evidence you need. But the real question is, why do you have your head in the sand? This material isn't going to come knocking on your door or your forehead.

Anonymous said...
can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?


http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

I'm renting a house in a very nice/hipster LA neighborhood. Been here for just under a year, when the flippers realized they were in trouble and decided to rent. They wanted $939,000 at the time. Today, according to Zillow, it's worth $584,000.

Of course nothing in my neighborhood has sold in six or seven months, other than a couple of 2-million plus castles on the hills.

My parents delayed selling their house two years ago -- they bought a vacation home that they wanted to retire to, but wanted to remodel it, etc.

Well, they finally sold the house (in Northern California) a few weeks ago, at a lowball price. They sold it for $150,000 less than a nearly identical house across the street sold for in 2005. It didn't really matter to my folks as the house was paid off and the new little country house was bought cash, but still -- $150K difference. That's a lot of money.

I am happy the midwest and Texas aren't suffering like this, because they didn't have double-bubbles to start with. I am sad for people who thought they had to buy a house NOW because otherwise they'd be priced out forever. This stuff is going to hurt for a long time, and it's going to hurt even those of us who were lucky/smart enough to sell before the bust and rent through the depression.

Anonymous said...

5 to 10 per cent on a national scale is a lot! Rember some markets are just fine. In Texas $150,000 still gets you a very nice 3/2 and there are plenty of jobs to support it. Here in Central Florida the carnage has already begun. Builders slashing prices by well over 15%. We fully expect a 15 to 20 per cent decline in existing home prices in the next few years.

I think it might be useful for all of us to sign with one's city or region to get a better perspective on everyone's comments.

Regards,
Orlando

BuyerWillEPB said...

can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Anyone? Anyone at all?

-------------------------------

EASY!

Here's a few.


4750 Mount Hay Dr, 92117 2005 $610,000 2006 $550,000. (DOWN 10%)

4641 Mount Laudo Dr, 92117 2005 $615,000 2007 $527,000. (DOWN 16%)

4932 Mount Frissell Dr, 92117 2005 $547,000 2007 $450,000 (DOWN 17%)

P.S. Notice how all these have "Mount" in the names? Yeah, it's because they are all IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD. Any other smartass questions?

Anonymous said...

The million dollar condo will be bought by HUD for public housing because nobody wants to live downtown with a bird's eye view of skid row and a $20K annual HOA

turdly said...

The new ditech ads do suck! first they have a guy in mask trying to sell you a mortgage then the new one has a guy in a turban cutting your home in half. What were they thinking? both of them are so visually revolting that you can abrely get the audio portion to make sense.

Anonymous said...


They still don't get it--why do you post em Keith? said...
WOW!! 5%!!! maybe even 10%!!

That's a far cry from the 70% you imbeciles keep talking about.

That is national average. there are markets where 40% declines have been recorded and some areas that where not in the bubble have seen slight nominal increases--what part of national average do you not understand?

June 21, 2007 2:19 AM


Hey retard! The collapse has just STARTED! Check back in 5 years.

Moron.

Paulin08 said...

Do your own homework troll. Trying to figure out what your future commission might be? Try this, $6/hr x 20hrs/wk...oh, plus free big mac's


Anonymous said...

can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Not asking price reduction, actual sales price reduction of 10% or more from 2005 selling price.

Anyone? Anyone at all?

You flap your mouth all day about 50% price crashes. I'd like to see evidence of 10% for starters.

June 20, 2007 9:45 PM

Anonymous said...

Re: Anon (June 20, 2007 10:59 PM )

Christiana Towers

------

I live in Wilmington in a 100 year old townhome, and drive past these condos everyday. They are in a terrible neighborhood. The building is < .5mile from stripclubs (I bet you can see them from the top floors), the 2nd closest gas station (a Hess) has condoms in the parking lot, and an overpass (< 100 yards from the driveway of the THomes) has at least 5 homeless begging under it everyday.

Everytime I see these condos advertised (all over the place on craigslist and the realtwhore papers) I laugh.

Anonymous said...

I asked for SALES of 10% or greter off. You idiots provide zillow values. Make comments about Bic Macs. Call me a troll. Yet none of you can actually point to 1 example of what I asked for.

Let me try again.

Show ******SALES***** where the ****SELLING**** price was 10% lower than a ****SELLING*** price in 2005.

Not listing price.
Not zillow.
Not what a blogger says.

*****SALES***** price compared to ****SALES**** price.

Here is an example:

House at 1234 10th Avenue sold for $500K in 2005. The same house sold for $450K in 2007, therefore the *****SELLING**** price is 10% less than the previous *****SELLING**** price.

So go on talking about 50% price drops all you want. You can't even provide evidence of a 10% drop.

Maybe you need a tightening on the tin foil hat.

Stephen said...

"even with the ship sinking they say that everything will be alright"

Anon 9:42

----------------------------------

And the band played on . . .

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Another "I'm with the government, and I'm here to help" anecdotal article. Always looking out for the little guy, huh Hank? They should all be thrown in jail!

Paulson Pushed on Shareholder Suit Issue

Thursday June 21, 2007 12:01 AM


AP Photo DCMC106, DCMC104

By PETE YOST

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday he personally initiated his department's role in a Supreme Court case that could hurt shareholders' efforts to recover losses in securities fraud lawsuits.

Paulson's acknowledgment came at a House Financial Services Committee hearing where Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., focused on the plight of investors who lost billions in the collapse of Enron, a Texas energy firm whose executives were convicted of fraud.

At Paulson's request, Treasury this month cautioned the Justice Department's solicitor general about enabling investors to sue firms that do business with scandal-ridden companies.

The issue arose because of a shareholder suit before the Supreme Court that seeks to recover money in a securities fraud case against two suppliers to a cable TV company. The outcome likely will determine whether a similar lawsuit by Enron investors against Wall Street investment banks is allowed to proceed.

The Securities and Exchange Commission urged the solicitor general to file a brief in support of investors.

But President Bush, Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency weighed in on the opposite side of the issue, which is referred to as third-party liability.

The solicitor general, who represents the Bush administration's views in the Supreme Court, decided not to side with investors. In several weeks, the solicitor general's office will decide whether to file a brief in support of defendants in the case.

``I am very surprised to find out that our government, this administration and you have decided that you are more interested in protecting those with third-party liability as it relates to Enron than you are in protecting the citizens who got ripped off,'' Waters told Paulson.

``I am a very strong advocate of protections against security fraud,'' Paulson replied. ``I asked the Treasury Department to send a letter to the solicitor general'' on the separate case before the Supreme Court because ``I thought it had enormous implications for the U.S. economy.''

Paulson said supporting such lawsuits ``could create a very uncertain legal environment that is ultimately harmful to our economy and to the workers.''

``The relevance to Enron can't be lost,'' said Waters.

Paulson said his concern was exposing firms to liability that ``happen to do business'' with a company allegedly engaging in securities fraud.

The Treasury letter says that allowing such lawsuits creates uncertainty and ``could adversely affect domestic and international competitiveness of the U.S. financial markets.''

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

BuyerWillEPB said...
can someone please post evidence of any homes sold for more than 10% off 2005 sales price?

Anyone? Anyone at all?

Go to Sacramento Area Flippers In Trouble to see the carnage. FUGLY!

Your thinking reminds me of the saying, "It's hard to get a man to understand something when his job/lifestyle depends on him not understanding it".

Guy Daley said...

Borders is closing 250 Waldenbook stores. 2 5 0, that is a lot of retail space opening up in shopping malls.

As the recession grows in scope a lot of Commercial REIT trusts are going to suffer as business after business can't afford to pay the titanic leases in the big shopping centers. Businesses have to jack up prices just to pay the lease bills and consumers won't support businesses like that anymore.

They'll buy used books on line instead, if at all.

Borders, five straight money losing quarters. Should be a good company to short. Lots of opportunity shorting retail in the near future.

K.W. - Southern Ca. said...

Very good story - and so true.

Nice to know you see this as what
it will turn into ... a housing depression, not a housing recession, or "slight" downturn.

House pricing is still way out of reach for most people, so it has a long way to fall yet.

Anonymous said...
I'm renting a house in a very nice/hipster LA neighborhood. Been here for just under a year, when the flippers realized they were in trouble and decided to rent. They wanted $939,000 at the time. Today, according to Zillow, it's worth $584,000.

Of course nothing in my neighborhood has sold in six or seven months, other than a couple of 2-million plus castles on the hills.

My parents delayed selling their house two years ago -- they bought a vacation home that they wanted to retire to, but wanted to remodel it, etc.

Well, they finally sold the house (in Northern California) a few weeks ago, at a lowball price. They sold it for $150,000 less than a nearly identical house across the street sold for in 2005. It didn't really matter to my folks as the house was paid off and the new little country house was bought cash, but still -- $150K difference. That's a lot of money.

I am happy the midwest and Texas aren't suffering like this, because they didn't have double-bubbles to start with. I am sad for people who thought they had to buy a house NOW because otherwise they'd be priced out forever. This stuff is going to hurt for a long time, and it's going to hurt even those of us who were lucky/smart enough to sell before the bust and rent through the depression.

Guy Daley said...

Pier One going tits up too:

Pier 1 Reports Wider Loss, Plan to Close More Stores (Update3)

By Mark Clothier

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Pier 1 Imports Inc., the biggest U.S. retailer of imported furniture, reported a wider loss after it cut prices to clear out merchandise and announced plans to eliminate jobs and close more stores.

The first-quarter net loss grew to $56.4 million, or 64 cents a share, from $23.2 million, or 27 cents, a year earlier, the company said today. Pier 1 will shut 100 stores, up from a previous plan for 60, and cut an unspecified number of jobs.

Sales have declined every quarter for 2 1/2 years at the company, which faces competition from bigger retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that have modeled their merchandise on Pier 1 items. Pier 1 shares trade for less than a third of their peak price of $26.19, reached in December 2003.

Anonymous said...

"Housing is going down an average of 45%! I saw a computer model based on the historic and bubble drop predictions. So. California will go down about 50%. Things won't reverse until about 2014!"

I saw a graph and report of the above from a think tank. What they were saying is that if liquidity drys up, and with the bubble prices, ARM resets, and present consumer willingness to walk away from "under water" loans, we will be about 50% down in Cal., Fla., Az., and parts of Nevada. The down slope look "scary". If I can find the web site I'll attach it. It showed recression to the mean theory, and it showed past down turns, which were horrible, but this one will be the "mother of all" crashes! It could make the great depression look like a walk in the park. Did anyone see "Escape from New Yorrk"? Well this one will be called "Escape from the ARM Hell!"

Anonymous said...

>>> Greenspam tells people they need to go with the new and exciting exotic stuff instead of the old boring conventional mortgage, and the sheeple go for it. CHECK!<<<

is that kind of like irrational exuberance????