June 21, 2007

If (choke, cough) you were a REALTOR (gag) and wrote about market conditions for Realty Times, what would you say (to drive commissions)?

Serious question. Here's my serious answer for the dimwits out there still trying to slog dead houses:

Real Estate Conditions - Phoenix, Arizona - Reported by your REALTOR, HousingPANIC:

An epic housing collapse is upon us, and Phoenix is the epicenter of this meltdown. If you own a home, I highly recommend getting it on the market, NOW, and price it to sell on day one - in other words, "drama pricing" and undercut your neighbors. Your goal should be to get out of that house ASAP, as it's only going to get worse from here on out, with skyrocketing inventory, desperate new homebuilders, and a total collapse in demand. This downturn will last years.

If you are in the market to buy a home, I'll help you with lowball offers until we get the house you want at a fair price. What's a fair price in this market? Your monthly payments should be less than what the house could generate in rent. And you should be thinking 30% - 50% off of peak pricing today. Sellers have never been this desperate, ever. There are foreclosures all over the city, and homeowners just want out.


Anonymous said...

Brutal Keith, just brutal. But then, the truth hurts...

gekko said...

"If you own a home,"
i think you mean if you want to sell. i dont think everyone owning should think of selling, only those in trouble

Anonymous said...

Caveate for both buyers & sellers:

If you're absolutely certain you're going to be in the home long term (i.e. like in the old days when houses were homes) they by all means stay in the home or start fishing/trolling as Keith noted to get the home you want. If you have any doubts about your long term staying power then sell the cr@pbox now and only rent for the next 3-5 years minimum until this slow train wreak unwinds to the point that it can no longer be ignored.

Anonymous said...

You forgot to mention that they'll need to bring $100,000 checks to the escrow table.

Anonymous said...

P.S. This is not a drill.

Anonymous said...

If you have to sell, take the average of the homes for sale on your block, take 10% off that is your listing price.

If you want to buy see above and take an extra 25% off. That is your buying price. You will be turned down a few times, eventually someone desperate enough will sell to you.

Anonymous said...

yeh but if you are in a neighborhood of tract homes, then even if you have your price lower than someone else, how does this affect anything? who is buying in that neighborhood and why? since the flippers are toast and the investers are gone, who is buying? good quality possible owners are few and far between now. even the most deaf and dumb potential buyer has become hip to what is going on, surely .....even now.....i mean, if you go looking for a house, and you see gobs of for sale and for rent signs, what does this mean to a person that is looking? frankly i think it would scare them off. now if you have a custom home with acreage, then perhaps this might work, who knows...its a buyer's market now....it might be better just to walk on it if you must......what other options are there??

popeye said...

I am's wherst I am's. There aint enough spinach fur me to carry that mortgage...

Anonymous said...

If I were a realtor I'd just kill myself and be done with it

Anonymous said...


Sorry about the change of topic, but here's proof that Dr. Ron Paul really IS a good guy! He's trying to abolish the Fed with legislation dated June 15, 2007!


Anonymous said...

I'd say: Markets go up, down and sideways.
They always go down after they went up, then they go sideways for a while.
If you want to know what the market is going to do next, figure out what it did last.

It just went way, way up.
Now it will go way, way down.
Then it will go sideways for a while.
Then it will go up again.

Next question, please.

AZ Realtor

chris g said...

"What's a fair price in this market? Your monthly payments should be less than what the house could generate in rent."

I agree a lot with what's being posted in this board, but I don't agree with this. The only way you can assume this with a straight face is if you assume there will never be future appreciation of the house's value, and the tax break on paying mortgage interest is rescinded.

Obviously the tax break of mortgage interest reduces the effective rate of what you pay each month. Also, if you understand the concept of present value and you have a financial calculator, you can calculate the present value of future appreciation of the house that will be realized in a (usually) tax-free capital gain at some point in the future. The discount rate used to figure out the present value would be the rate of return you would require to tie up additional PITI expenses above that of the rental payment.

The renter's side of the argument would be that there are maintenance and utility expenses for the owner. However, average appreciation (in a "normal" market) should significantly exceed these expenses over time, as long as the house isn't old and decrepit.

Sorry to sound like such a geek. Now feel free to mudsling away at my argument.

Anonymous said...

You guys will love this a Realtor just called the wrong number MINE.

I said oh she doesn't live here then he said well do you know how to get ahold of her I have information about the house she bid on. I said I don't know her at all but I am looking to rent a house. After hearing I was looking to rent he went into instant sell mode.

You know the rent is throwing money away no pride of debtorship. Besides with this buyers market almost over you better buy now or you will regret it. Anyway I told him I was waiting for the fire sale this Fall or next Spring. Of course that isn't going to happen because Real estate never goes down.

After all that I told him its hard to understand something when your income depends on you not understanding it.

Anonymous said...

When is it not a good time to buy?

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Serious question. Here's my serious answer for the dimwits out there still trying to slog dead houses

Touche' and priceless!