March 14, 2008 - a day that will live in infamy. Housing panic is here.

As of today, we have reached the beginning of the endgame HP'ers.

The dollar has been destroyed. And will fall even more.

The investment banks will fail.

Fannie and Freddie are in a heap of trouble, and the taxpayer bailout may be in the trillions.

Banks will be liquidated.

Home prices have crashed, but will continue to fall and fall and fall and fall. To levels that will surprise even hardcore HP'ers.

realtors and the REIC have been forever and permanently tarnished, discredited and called out for what they are - scum, charlatans, liars and conmen, never to be trusted again.

Bush, Bernanke, Greenspan, Dodd, Clinton, Reid and Pelosi will be seen as traitors who failed America.

The ad-supported cheerleading mainstream media has embarrassed themselves. Again.

Flippers and speculators are toast.

States and towns are left looking around, wondering where all the revenue went.

Businesses have begun to fold up shop.

The FBI, SEC and local law enforcement are finally thinking about doing their jobs.

And most importantly, people for generations to come will stop looking at homes as lottery tickets. They'll consider price to rent and price to income ratios before they 'buy'. They'll think twice about paying an uneducated stooge a percent of the selling price for doing nothing. And they'll read the legal documents and do their own research before they sign.

Housing panic is here.

God help us all.

Here's the blaring headline from housing-crash-central San Diego. I think this one probably stopped traffic. HousingPANIC anyone?

Ignoring the cold hard truth, living in denial and listening to realtors on commission was possible for awhile.

And then it wasn't.

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!! The panic starts now.

FLASH FLASH FLASH: Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt

MortgagePANIC is here.

And then, HP'ers, the real ugly truth started to (finally) come out. Funny though, they're still talking about losses on the toxic stuff. Don't they understand the conforming stuff is getting killed too? And that this meltdown will put most loans underwater?

Soft landing right? Credit crunch over right? A few billion in markdowns and call it a day righ?mort

I don't think so.

Banks will fail. Trillions will be lost. CEOs will go to jail. And the biggest bubble and mania in history will be followed by the biggest crash the world has ever seen.

It hath been foretold.

Get ready for more dollar destruction, more Fed injections, more rate cuts, more inflation, more market turmoil and more HousingPANIC. We've got a long way to go.

Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt

A new phase in the credit crunch, one of “$1 trillion losses” seems to be dawning. The crisis at Citigroup and renewed doubts about some of the world’s leading banks disquieted stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, with the fractious mood set to continue.

Bill Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management, said US mortgage delinquencies and defaults would rise in 2008. “There are $1 trillion worth of sub-primes, Alt-As [self-certified] and basically garbage loans,” he said, adding that he expects some $250bn in defaults. “We’ve only begun to see the pain from rising mortgage payments,” he added.

Samir Shah at Landsbanki Securities said: “People thought most of the bad news had been priced in. It seems we’re entering a second phase of the credit squeeze. We’re going back to a place where liquidity is drying up and volatility is increasing.”

HousingPANIC is two years old today. From "flying monkey" and "brown shirt" voices in the wilderness to "damn, those guys sure got it right"

Two years ago, it was "there is no housing or credit bubble - you're all a bunch of wackos", "Bubbles are for bathtubs", Chicken Little may wail", and "Are you missing the real estate boom?".

And now?

Housing market in the early days of a historic implosion after the biggest credit and real estate bubble in recorded human history

Dollar in freefall

Gold at $800

Oil at $100

Banks and Lenders going belly up, firing their CEOs, being sued, and under investigation

Lazy MSM switching from "can't miss with housing" fluff pieces quoting realtors to "you're better off renting" articles quoting Peter Schiff

Housing cheerleaders like David Lereah, Lawrence Yun, Nicholas Retsinas, Greg Swann, Mike Norman, Kendra Todd and Blanche Evans laughed at, mocked, and fully and forever discredited

Homebuilders destroyed

Illegals going home

Bush seen as the worst president ever, Greenspan seen as the incompetent who caused this mess

Permanent destruction of the mortgage broker and realtor professions

Congressional REIC investigations

It's been a fun ride so far HP'ers. Two years, 6 million views and nearly 4,000 posts later. Some days I feel our work is done, other days I think it's just getting started.

HP is a volunteer effort, and a gift to future generations who one day will again be able to save up a modest down payment, buy a home (without a realtor on commission) that they can comfortably afford, and treat their house as a home, not as a lottery ticket, and not as an ATM.

The REIC hates us, as we've helped expose the scam, and we're costing them commissions. So be it. But the people have a voice now, thanks to the bubble blogs, and the days of unchecked realtor disinformation are over. Even if the MSM doesn't do their job, we will.

Cheers to you all for participating and reading. Screw the housing bubble, and screw the REIC! Now let's get this crash over with so we can move on.

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

When will Bernanke and the Fed panic and cut the Fed funds rate?

A) By next week

B) September

C) October - December

D) Not gonna cut until next year

E) Next move will be a rate hike

Bonus Question: Inflation, Stagflation, Deflation, Reflation or Desperation?

People of the world it's time to listen. Housing PANIC is here. The time is nigh. The Greatest Ponzi Scheme is over.

HP has been a cute little blog these past couple of years, seeking to warn, inform and entertain. We talked in theory, we debated in potentials.

No more.

The Great Housing Crash and the Great Unwinding are now here.

If you haven't sold your home yet, and you need to, put it on the market now - as in today - and put it out at "drama price" - undercut your neighbors by at least 10% and get the hell out of dodge. Take any offer. But don't hold your breath - it's already too late.

If you're thinking of listening to a realtor on commission and buying a home (renting money from a bank), DON'T. Homes will be cheaper, SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper, months and years from now. We're in the early innings of the greatest crash of all time.

If you're invested in the stock market, GET OUT. The Fed Bump will be oh so brief. A meltdown awaits.

If you have all your assets in US dollars, SPREAD THE RISK.

If your job is tied in any way to housing, get ready to lose it.

And if you don't believe us, just go read the blog, from start to finish, all 3,300 posts. We've been mocked, we've been slandered, we've been criticized and we've been defamed.

But we were right.

And now housing PANIC is here.

And there's nothing you can do about it. This crash will be a crash of necessity. We got off the track. And after it's over, we'll be better off.

Good luck out there. You're gonna need it.

FLASH - Right on schedule, panic and the run on the banks has now commenced. No surprises for HP'ers, shock and awe for everyone else

Even I'm surprised and amazed at what a Great Unwinding and Panic looks like in real life. Theory is one thing, and damn, we nailed it there, but to see it in action is, well, quite stunning. Trillions are going to be lost over the next few months. Trillions.

Prepare for more of this run on bank stuff... And if you have more than $100,000 exposed in any FDIC account, or if your accounts aren't FDIC insured, or god forbid, if you have ANY funds with Countrywide or IndyMac (I'm short), then what are you doing reading this blog - get down to the bank and get your cash out now!

A rush to pull out cash - Worried about the stability of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial, depositors crowd branches.

Anxious customers jammed the phone lines and website of Countrywide Bank and crowded its branch offices to pull out their savings because of concerns about the financial problems of the mortgage lender that owns the bank.

At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene rare since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names.

In West Los Angeles, a Countrywide supervisor brought in from another office served coffee to more than 25 people waiting calmly for their turn with the one clerk who could help them.

Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to Countrywide's Laguna Niguel office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000, which he then wired to an account at Bank of America.

"It's because of the fear of the bankruptcy," said Ashmore, president of Irvine's Impac Mortgage Holdings, which escaped bankruptcy itself recently by shutting down virtually all its lending and laying off hundreds of employees.

"It's got my wife totally freaked out," he said. "I just don't want to deal with it. I don't care about losing 90 days' interest, I don't care if it's FDIC-insured -- I just want it out."

And then there was panic, and a run on the banks, and right on schedule Bernanke's printing press and helicopter swooped into action

Gotta love Bernanke stepping in with billions in depreciating US dollars to rescue the depreciating housing market by bailing out the imploding banks. Man, is this really happening?

Get them printin' presses runnin' boys! Some 5's, some 10's, some 20's and tons and tons of hundys! And get my helicopter ready!

We're so screwed...

Fed Pumps Another $35B Into US Financial System Friday to Stem Credit Turmoil

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, trying to calm turmoil on Wall Street, announced Friday that it will pump as much money as needed into the U.S. financial system to help overcome the ill effects of a spreading credit crunch.

The Fed, in a short statement, said it will provide "reserves as necessary" to help the markets safely make their way. The central bank did not provide details but said it would do all it can to "facilitate the orderly functioning of financial markets."

The current meltdown in the housing and mortgage markets has caused new home foreclosures to climb to record highs and has forced some lenders out of business.

Increasingly restrictive lending conditions can put a damper on people's ability to buy big-ticket items such as homes, cars and appliances. And it can crimp businesses' capital investment and hiring. That reduced appetite by businesses and consumers would slow overall economic activity.

"Panic". "Meltdown". "Nightmare". Is it just me, or is Housing Panic here?

Seriously, folks, you'd have to be a clueless fool to buy a home in this market. Even if you were one of the few lucky enough to secure financing as the mortgage lenders implode.

It's a bloodbath out there. Hold tight. This week will be wild. Check that - the next few years will be wild. Good luck out there everyone.

Housing Market to Weaken Even Further As Mortgage Industry Takes Cure

"This week is going to be a nightmare," says Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage in New York. Lenders are scaling back so fast that it isn't clear which loans are available or on what terms, and rates are jumping even on large loans, known as jumbos, for prime borrowers.

These stricter lending standards reduce demand for homes and nudge some people who can't refinance toward foreclosure. Higher foreclosures add to a glut of homes on the market in most of the country. And, completing the vicious circle, a weaker housing market comes back to bite the lenders by wiping out owners' equity in their homes and increasing the risk of even more foreclosures down the road.

"The market is in a panic," says Larry Goldstone, president of Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a lender in Santa Fe, N.M. He says he thinks the mortgage-bond market, which supplies most of the money for home mortgages, will calm down within a few months, but the housing market may need at least another year or two to heal.

Jim Cramer melts down (with the markets) live on CNBC - you must watch this video. "We have Armageddon" (Bump)

(UPDATE - I'm gonna bump this video for a bit longer. It's just that good, and that honest. You gotta believe CNBC and others will make Cramer back away from these comments Monday, and he probably will. But card laid, card played, and this cat is out of the bag...)

Mark this day - August 3, 2007. The day it all unraveled. The day the center could no longer hold.

Even Jim Cramer completely lost it today.

And I think we all know why.

I didn't know what housing panic would look like when it really started to hit.

Now I do.

Everyone watch this video.

This is housing panic.

And get ready.

Sorry, Jimbo. The Fed ain't gonna cut.

Here's some highlights:

SHOUTING:

"HE HAS NO IDEA HOW BAD IT IS OUT THERE. HE HAS NO IDEA. HE HAS NO IDEA. I'VE TALKED TO THE HEADS OF ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE FIRMS IN THE LAST 72 HOURS AND HE HAS NO IDEA!!!"

"AND BILL POOLE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT'S LIKE OUT THERE!!"

"THESE FIRMS ARE GOING TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS!!!!!"

"THIS IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF MARKET AND THE FED IS ASLEEP AND BILL POOLE IS A SHAME HE'S SHAMEFUL!!!!"

"WE HAVE ARMAGEDDON"

At this point the video ends and I've gotta believe Cramer went out to his car and did some blow with Kudlow.

And then Jim Cramer got religion, gave up, and told sheeple to walk away from their homes as housing moves to crisis stage

Home prices crashing

2/28 timebomb about to blow

Housing falling apart nationwide

"Dramatic decline in home values" expected

The end is here. Now panic sets in.

hattip (again!) to housingdoom - great work

International Herald Tribune asks: When does a housing slump become a bust?

Here's my take. It's all based on leverage, and as we know now, with stocks you can get 50% margin or leverage. With homes, it's infinite - $0 can get you $1,000,000 or more. Lose 10% on $1 million of leverage/debt, you're bankrupt. Heck, even little kids can get $2.4 million with nothing to back it up.

5%: Correction / Bust / Adjustment
10%: Housing Panic
15%: Epic Historic Housing Crash
20%: Housing Devastation
25%: The end of all that is sane and holy real estate meltdown
30%: Are those locusts? Grandpa get your gun! Housing Armageddon

Interesting thing is that in some markets, we're already seeing 30% off. This one will be for the history books. Wonder what they'll call it?

NEW YORK: Many Americans fear the consequences of a housing bust, but few know what one would really look like.

Think about it. How far do housing prices have to fall before a slump becomes a bust?

In the stock market, we have a pretty good idea what a crash is. Among stock market experts, there is a consensus that a 10 percent decline in a major index is a correction while a 20 percent decline is more significant: a crash or a bear market, depending on the time involved. For the macro economy, there is also agreed-upon terminology. For example, a recession means two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product.

But when it comes to declines in housing prices, there is no such framework. As experts debate whether we are headed for a housing bust, you would think that we should at least be able to define it.

The problem is that economists have not agreed on a definition. In part, that is because severe declines in housing prices tend to be rare events, not a common subject for discussion. The last really big decline in national housing prices occurred more than 70 years ago, during the Great Depression. Another reason is that the data measuring the housing market is far more opaque than that for the stock market.

MELTDOWN MELTDOWN MELTDOWN MELTDOWN MELTDOWN MELTDOWN

Has housing just gone China Syndrome?

Stop denying Denial. It's Fear my friends. Fear.

HSBC moved $10 billion from the "denial" column straight to "capitulation" the other day.

The entire subprime industry, which fell off a cliff in the past few weeks, went from "euphoria" to "despondency" overnight it seems. And the contagion will spread. It always does during a the mania unwinding stage.

1.9 million American homes currently listed in foreclosure are in "desperation" stage.

2.2 million Americans who took out toxic loans and are expected to default, well, they've gotta be in "fear" stage now if they're paying attention.

Millions of REIC employees / contractors / commission hungry sharks are in "fear" stage today, wondering when the axe will fall, and how long they'll have to eat ramen.

The 2.1 million homedebtors with an empty home on the market and no buyers in sight have gotta be in some stage of "fear", "desperation" and yes, "panic" today.

One would-be real estate mogul who is now selling off his portfolio of failure and days away from bankruptcy and a knock from the FBI, well, even he's evidently moving past denial lately.

HP'ers, you'd have to be insane, clueless, corrupt, stupid and seriously the greatest fool on earth if you're still in "euphoria" or "anxiety" stage. Man, the train left the station, a long, long time ago. When will Americans (and the world) finally get on board? Or are they?

HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with Attitude, gets a new name today

The housing bubble is over my friends. We're now, without question, firmly in crash stage. So as of today, 3,000,000 page views, 2,500 posts and a year and a half later, let me now introduce:

HousingPANIC - The Housing Crash Blog with an Attitude Problem

Yup, you'll continue to get housing bubble (RIP) and crash news, political and fiscal commentary, and until this thing is over, a serious attitude problem.

One day HP'ers, when it costs more to rent than own, and real estate clerks and the corrupt REIC have been forever defeated, we'll move on to better and brighter topics. Hope will spring eternal, and we'll be better off as a country having experienced this historic crash. I truly believe that.

I see a shining city on a hill. A thousand points of light. Or something like that.

Until then, F the REIC! F real estate clerks! F David Lereah! And F the late great housing bubble!

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

What else do Americans need to see in terms of proof for them to come to the awareness and understanding that housing from 2001 to 2005 was caught up in a massive, historic and unsustainable mania, one that is now swiftly, firmly, predictably and unequivocally crashing?



Mania,

then
Panic,

then
Crash.

HP'ers, I'll keep repeating how this is going to go down until you can recite it from memory

There should be NO surprises. As an HP'er you should know EXACTLY how this will unfold. This is like watching evolution in real time, and don't you all feel like you know something, some eternal truth, while others are still clueless.

From the HP bible, "Manias, Panics and Crashes" by Kindleberger, with my notes on what each stage felt like to Joe Homedebtor:

* The upswing usually starts with an opportunity - new markets, new technologies or some dramatic political change - and investors looking for good returns.

2001: Hey, isn't it GREAT that the Fed lowered interest rates to 1%! Boy, it sure is easy to get a loan these days, wonder why? That stock market sure sucks, maybe I should try real estate?

* It proceeds through the euphoria of rising prices, particularly of assets, while an expansion of credit inflates the bubble.

2002 - 2003: Everyone's getting rich! Marge, our home just went up in value, let's get a cash-out refi and buy a Hummer! Man, getting credit from a bank has never been easier! Now you don't even need a job to get $1 million!

* In the manic phase, investors scramble to get out of money and into illiquid things such as stocks, commodities, real estate or tulip bulbs: 'a larger and larger group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved'.

2004 - 2005: I'm gonna go with my friend Pete and go camp for a few days so we can win a condo! I mean, win the right to pay whatever the developer asks to buy a condo! (No, seriously, HP'ers, just a year ago people were CAMPING OUT FOR FUC*ING CONDOS!)

* Ultimately, the markets stop rising and people who have borrowed heavily find themselves overstretched. This is 'distress', which generates unexpected failures, followed by 'revulsion' or 'discredit'.

2005 - 2006: Oh, crap, my Scottsdale investment condo has been on the market for 5 months and no offers. Maybe I should lower the price? But Larry next door sold his a few months ago for X so I should be able to get X too. Hmmm... OK, I'll lower the price. (months go by). Oh, crap, nobody wants this sh*tshack! Where did all the buyers go?

* The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king.

2007 - 20??: OH DEAR JESUS SOMEONE BUY MY HOME! Why are all these subprime mortgage companies going belly up all of a sudden? I'll sell my home for any price - I don't care, Mr. Banker, just tell me what I owe! Get rid of this damn thing! I HATE HOUSING! Oh, dear, I need to raise cash and raise it fast otherwise I won't be able to eat! How did I get $2.2 million in debt!? What was I thinking! AAAHHHHGGGHHH!!!! SUZZZZAAANNNNEEEEE!!!!

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Regarding the Great Housing Crash of 2005 - 20XX, how does it all go down from here?

We'll be talking about this mania and crash for the rest of our lives.

The late great housing bubble was such a perfect and textbook financial mania. Every single criteria was met, straight out of the mania (and eventual panic) gameplan.

But just wait now, loyal HP'ers, for the fallout from the biggest mania in recorded human history. A mania which caught in its trap over 70% of the American population. A mania on steroids, with unimaginable levels of leverage, the likes of which we've never seen before. And a mania with an almost surreal level of fraud and deception.

Oh, we'll be talking about this mania and crash for the rest of our lives. And so will our children, and our children's children. And 500 years from now, The Great Housing Bubble will be taught in classes.

I couldn't be more proud. We did it. We created the biggest financial mania in recorded human history.

Congrats Americans! Congrats people of the world! You did it!

Now deal with it.

And isn't it time for Newsweek or Time to put the housing crash on their cover already? The AP story of the year after all. What are they waiting for?

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a "market bubble", a "financial bubble", or a "speculative mania") refers to a market condition in which the prices of commodities or asset classes increase to absurd or unsustainable levels (that no longer reflect utility of usage and purchasing power).

It occurs when speculation in the underlying asset causes the price to increase, thus encouraging even more speculation. The bubble is usually followed by a sudden drop in prices, known as a crash or a bubble burst.