I can't believe what I'm seeing. Here's your chance HP'ers to own a "Countrywide Owned Property". COP. Wow.

I'm truly amazed and that doesn't happen much. "Countrywide Owned Property". Is that like "Lexus Pre-Owned". A badge of distinction? A mark of quality?

Oooh, nice home Bob. Is this a 'Countrywide Owned"? Very nice!!!

Here's Countrywide's website where they list all the homes where the owners simply walked away and gave Countrywide back the keys, and Countrywide couldn't pawn the stench off to your pension fund or China.

Take it for a run, and let me know what you think. And to think, we're just getting started. And yes, Desperate Homedebtors who want to sell aren't just competing with the desperate homebuilders (who dropped prices at least 10% last month in their firesale). They're competing against the lenders who just want the dead wood off their books.

I've linked to the Arizona page, and it's amazing to see the number of homes $500,000+.

Nice move Orange Angelo cashing out those hundreds of millions of $$$ of CFC stock. Nice f*cking move Angelo.

Looking for a bargain on a home?A Countrywide owned property (lender-owned), also sometimes referred to as a REO (real estate owned) home or property is often a way to get a good deal on a home or an investment property. You can use the tool below to search for Countrywide owned properties in your area.

Got cash? Morgan Stanley issues "Triple Sell Warning" on equities, first time since dot-com crash

Got cash? It's tough to pick exactly when markets will crash and bubbles will pop, but it's pretty easy to identify "why". And as Buffett said, always sell too early. The stock market euphoria during this historic housing crash has been interesting to watch, especially in the context of Bernanke's "it won't spill over" statements. Yeah, right, Ben. We trust you.

Everbank is paying 6.01% on savings. HSBC is also 5.5%, and e-loan has some good CD rates I'm enjoying. I check bankrate.com for the best rates and just keep it moving around. With bond yields soaring those saver rates will keep getting better hopefully.

Keep in mind you don't want more than $100,000 in any one bank (FDIC limit), 'cause bank failures may be next during the rush to cash, as is written about here.

Good luck out there.

Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'

Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.

Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.

"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002.

"We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.

The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.

NAR Pending Home Sales falling off a cliff, and an epic, historic housing crash is now fully underway

The NAR can try to spin and lie as hard as they can, but there comes a point folks, like when the water was coming over the bow on the Titanic, when people realize it's all over, and now the rush to the lifeboats begins.

Folks, you are witnessing a housing crash of historic proportions. You will tell your grandkids about this time one day. The gears are starting to lock up now. The center is not holding. And a chain reaction meltdown is fully underway.

I hope you've found your lifeboat. Better hurry, they're getting pretty crowded.

Hat-tip to the excellent housingdoom blog for the chart and truth.

Don't think a historic real estate crash is underway? Tell that to Hovnanian who just lost 75% on land in 24 months

Folks, when you pay $85,000 and sell for $20,000 two years later, that's an epic, historic, mind-blowing meltdown.

And makes you wonder, after falling 75%, can it fall even farther? Big message is don't buy real estate for 10% off or 40% off. We're going to see firesale pricing that'll make your head spin. 75% off. Wow.

Geesh. This is amazing.

The following is a transcript from today's HOV conference call:

Stephen S. Kim - Citigroup Smith Barney

That’s what I thought. Could you give us a sense, or maybe what magnitude it was lower than what you had initially paid?

Ara K. Hovnanian

Well, we did not buy all of that land in one transaction. These are, if you remember, scattered lots in that area so they were literally bought in small increments on a regular basis.

To give you an idea on how significantly that market corrected, at the peak lot transactions happened in one of the areas at about $80,000 a piece.

The market continued to come all the way down. We wrote it down, and not all of ours, by the way, was purchased at $85,000 but that was where it was at the peak.

We wrote down the values to the low 20s, and I think the contract amount off the top of my head came in just slightly below that level.

Stephen S. Kim - Citigroup Smith Barney

Thank you. That’s what I was looking for. Thanks a lot.

Sacramento Housing Bust: Anyone want a house at 50% off? Anyone? Anyone?

Unintended housing crash consequence #1843: Lots of weeds growing in yards

Think America is having a nice housing crash? Just wait, England will have one for the ages

If what goes up must come down, then England, which has much further to fall than the US, will land with a bang heard 'round the world. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

Get ready world for Housing Crash, Brit Style.

Here's a great column in The Observer. I especially like the point that the central bank must raise interest rates not just to fight inflation but to send a message to would-be housing speculators that yes, housing prices can and do crash. Because home prices will keep going up and up and up and up unless, like a bad doggy, someone gets a spanking.

The crash is coming and it could be soon - The Bank of England must act decisively and swiftly to curb the current house price madness

It is crazy and it defies logic. The continuous rise in house prices over the last five years has become one of the facts of British life. It divides the generations: parents often sit on hundreds of thousand of pounds of equity propped up by their children's willingness, as first-time buyers, to incur mortgage debt on a scale never before dreamt of. It has made millionaires many times over of those who have plunged into the buy-to-let market. We are obsessed by house prices.

The risk of history repeating itself is known, but too few people believe it. Not the clubs of four or five young people 'co-buying' in order to have a chance of getting into the housing market. Not the wave of buyers of flats that are bought speculatively either to be let or which just stand vacant (and which now constitute one of the prime drivers of demand). Seventy percent of the 20,000 flats built in London last year were bought by buy-to-let speculators.

Neither they, nor those who lend the money, appear to be concerned that prices will fall. Cheltenham and Gloucester has just decided that it will finance small buy-to-let borrowers to buy up to nine properties rather than the three at present. The Bank of Ireland, according to the Financial Times, has just raised the maximum it will lend to any one entrepreneur by eight times - from £2.5m to £20m. It is risk-free lending. It may be that the yield from rents is lower than the costs of borrowed money, spelling disaster, but as property prices only rise, nobody worries. It is stories like these that prove we are in a bubble.

House prices are now six times average incomes - 20 per cent higher than before the calamity of the early 1990s - and forcing ever higher amounts of mortgage and bank lending, which, in turn, push up inflation.

The bank has to act decisively on Thursday and give an unmistakeable signal of its intent. It should raise rates to 6 per cent. If it does not, it will only have to move them even higher next year because it bottled out of acting pre-emptively.

It has to break the folklore that the only direction of house prices is up.

So be cautious. Don't take out an extreme mortgage at the top of the market. Don't feel sympathy for the distress about to hit the buy-to-let market and the lenders who recklessly fed the fever. But do ask hard questions about how our financial system is managed.

Casey Serin at Iamfacingforeclosure.com is considering living in his car

I've got nothing to add to that headline. But I'm guessing you all do...

I have to come up with 2 months of rent money plus May’s payment by tomorrow. And there is even talk of pre-paying 2 months in advance if we are to stay here. Even though I don’t think my sister-in-law is going to kick me out, there is always that chance.

The thought of living in a car or a van has crossed my mined a few times. Apparently, I’m not the only one thinking about it. Living in cars after being priced out of housing is a growing trend according to last year’s New York Times article Keeping It Secret as the Family Car Becomes a Home

Why do desperate homedebtors think they get to set the price?

"I'm not gonna sell for a penny below what I owe"

"There's no way I'm gonna take a loss"

"I deserve what my neighbor got last year"

"I'm gonna find a realtor who can get me what my place should go for"

Uh, no, you're not. The market sets the price, not the homedebtor, and trust us, that market price is WAY below what it was last year or the year before.

It's time for the Great Housing Blue Light Special.

Cleanup on aisle three.

At this point in the housing crash, HP recommends everyone see "The Pursuit of Happyness"

Just read Casey Serin's latest post (he's alive) to get a glimpse how tough it's gonna get on a personal level for millions of people during the crash.

I also would like to point HP'ers to our official charity, the Denver Rescue Mission, which helps the homeless in foreclosure-central Denver Colorado. Please think about giving, even if it's just a couple of bucks.

The housing crash is here folks. There's no denying it. Lives will be ruined. Families will be torn apart. Crime will soar. The divorce rate will go through the roof. Bankruptcy will become a way of life. Neighborhoods will be decimated.

And the builders, mortgage brokers, bankers and realtors got paid all along the way. Never forget that.

HP favorite Thornberg lecture on the late great housing bubble

Check out all three parts - here's part one...And compare Dr. Thornberg, a real economist, to the laughable Corrupt David Lereah

FLASH: Existing home sales crash 13% vs. LAST YEAR, median price now down $13,200 or 6% from peak

As predicted, the brain dead and worthless MSM lead with the change versus last month, down a shocking 8.4%, and go with The Corrupt David Lereah's excuse that it was "bad weather" and that he expected the drop. Yeah, right.

Some days folks, you just gotta marvel at the incompetence and laziness of the MSM... At the same time you have to marvel at the swiftness of this American housing crash that's now gathering steam.

Here's the real headline, care of HP:

USED HOME SALES CRASH 13% VERSUS PRIOR YEAR, MEDIAN PRICE NOW DOWN AT LEAST $13,200 OR 6% FROM PEAK ACCORDING TO FLAWED NAR STUDY. UNWANTED HOME INVENTORY UP AT LEAST 17% VERSUS PRIOR YEAR TO 7.3 MONTH SUPPLY. NAR MOUTHPIECE DAVID LEREAH HILARIOUSLY BLAMES HOUSING CRASH ON WEATHER.

NAR Data: Sales: March 2007 482,000 vs. March 2006 554,000. Median Price: March 2007 $217,000 vs. $230,200 July 2006 peak

And here's the one of many MSM reports using the NAR spin:

Sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the subprime mortgage market, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent in March, compared to February. It was the biggest one-month decline since a 12.6 percent drop in January 1989, another period of recession conditions in housing. The drop left sales in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million units, the slowest pace since June 2003.

David Lereah, chief economist at the Realtors, attributed the big drop in part to bad weather in February, which discouraged shoppers and meant that sales that closed in March would be lower.

"Five months later, I lose $100,000 - I don't think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster"

Man, it's really sad to watch the end of a Ponzi Scheme. So many dream-chasers are now so screwed.

They listened to their neighbors (who thought they were rich), they listened to their REALTORs (who got paid), they listened to their mortgage brokers (who got paid), they listened to their developers (who got paid), and they listened to their "ownership society" buffoon of a president (who was too dumb to understand), and they listened to themselves (really bad move).

And now they'll be listening to bankruptcy court judges and debt counselors.

Tulips anyone? Pets.com stock anyone? South Sea shares anyone? Phoenix condos anyone? Anyone? Anyone?

The late great American housing bubble has ended. Prices are crashing (no matter what the government or NAR tell you). Inventory is skyrocketing. Lives are ruined. Millions are asking "what the hell was I thinking". And an epic Ponzi Scheme ends.

'Upside Down' Home Sellers Owe More Than They Get

Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it because they are getting divorced and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.

The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.

"Five months later, I lose $100,000," Taylor, a high school teacher, said. "I don't think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster."

The people most vulnerable are those who bought their homes within the past two or three years and now want to sell, either because of a life change or a financial problem.

Prices in some places are notably lower than they were at the peak of the market, and the costs of selling can eat up even more money.

Nah, home prices aren't in freefall. Nah, there's no housing crash underway. Pssst... someone tell that to Lennar!

Hat-tip to Housingdoom (again) for this one. One word folks: FIRESALE!

Man, wanna have some fun? Run around to new home communities and ask for 50% off the original price. At least you'll get a nice counter offer. But obviously don't buy unless you can rent the place out for positive cash flow. Do that math with the builder on that one too...

Oh, for extra credit fun, go knock on doors in these new home communities and let the neighbors know how far their homes have fallen in value since they bought. Let 'em know the builder is conducting a historic firesale that will destroy the comps for years to come.

You might want to bring protection.

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

What will America do with all its unwanted and unneeded houses and condos now?

Empty houses and condos at record levels

The number that got all the attention this week was 2.7 percent. That's the percentage of homes that are sitting empty across the United States. And it's certainly noteworthy, because in the four decades since the Census Bureau began tracking that number, it's never gone higher than 2 percent.

Put another way, there are 2.1 million empty homes out there, and the people who own them are taking a vicious beating.

But the really nasty number almost got lost in the shuffle. It's 11 percent. That's the number of buildings with five or more units (read: condominiums) that were unoccupied during the fourth quarter.

These and other numbers are being bandied about this week at the National Association of Home Builders' International Business Show. If you recall, this is the same show at which economists last year announced what developers were already figuring out - that the speculators feeding the condo boom had packed up and gone home.

FLASH: Foreclosures soar 800% in California vs. last year

800%

It's not often in life that you see "up 800%" type numbers.

Sometimes, you just have to put the paper down and look at that one in awe.

Up 800%.

Not 100%. Not 200%. Not 400%. Nope, up 800%.

Wow.

Foreclosure Surge in California

A surge of foreclosures in California has some economists concerned that the fallout will be long lasting and potentially wound the whole economy.

The 11,033 foreclosures in the first three months of the year represent an 800 percent increase over the same period a year earlier.

"For this rise in foreclosures to be happening in the midst of a strong labor market is truly unique and scary," says analyst Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics.

He predicts foreclosures will top out at four or five times the current level — enough, he says, to induce a recession or at least bring the economy to the precipice.

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

What are the five worst housing-bubble-based cities in the US?

For the PC crowd who ripped HP for connecting illegal immigration to the housing bubble, I give you this...

This article addresses the supply side, where illegal labor fueled the corrupt homebuilders profits these past few years as millions of poorly built homes went up and an American homebuilding workforce was displaced, all with a nudge nudge wink wink from the corrupted Congress and President.

But don't forget though that the illegals also played a role in the demand side too (check out that article - $15,000 a year illegals get $720,000 loan) which is also unraveling faster than a soggy burrito.

For Illegal Immigrants, Housing Slump Takes Toll

Some of the casualties of America’s housing bust are easy to spot up and down California’s Central Valley.

From Fresno to Sacramento, big tangles of wire and PVC pipes clutter vacant lots in silent subdivisions, waiting for houses to be built — some day. Dozens of “For Sale” signs already dot the lawns across new residential communities. And right next to the ubiquitous billboards from builders are fresh signs offering homeowners help to avoid foreclosure.

But another set of losers is less visible: the immigrant workers, mostly illegal, who rode the construction boom while it lasted and now find jobs on building sites few and far between.

Offering more than $10 an hour as well as new skills and a shot at upward mobility, construction provided many illegal immigrants the best job they ever had, a step up from the backbreaking work reserved for those toiling without legal authorization, which in the Central Valley mostly meant pruning and picking in fruit and vegetable fields.

The growing presence of illegal immigrants in home building, mostly working for small labor contractors, might help explain why government statistics have recorded only a small decline in construction employment, despite the collapse in residential investment.

“Technically they don’t fire them,” said Myrna Martínez, coordinator for the Fresno office of the American Friends Service Committee, a nonprofit organization working on social assistance projects for immigrant workers. “They just tell them that there is no more work.”

While there are no equivalent statistics at the state or local level, a glance at a construction crew anywhere in the valley confirms the overwhelming immigrant share. “There are only Mexicans,” said Adrián L., an illegal immigrant from Oaxaca who does interior work on homes here. “Now not even the supervisors are American.”

So when Time magazine FINALLY puts the housing crash on the cover...

Does anyone find it weird that the housing crash was the biggest business story in 2006 (per the AP), and has completely overtaken the MSM and the dinner table for the past six months or so - nearly every day in the USA Today, Financial Times, Arizona Republic, New York Times, etc....

And yet Time magazine has done almost zero housing crash or subprime disaster reporting. And when they do it's a fluff piece or terrible reporting. And not a single cover since their now-hilarious going goo-goo for housing piece.

So what's up? Are they embarrassed? Are they corrupt? Or are they just Bush-like-incompetent? Does Time Warner take so much REIC advertising $$ that they don't want to admit the truth? Does Richard Parsons, Time Warner CEO, have some kind of strange REIC connection?

Something just doesn't make sense. Every issue for the past year should have had an article about the housing bubble / housing crash / REIC meltdown / subprime disaster. And at least four or five covers by now.

So what the hell is going on?

When Time FINALLY puts the housing crash on the cover, any predictions on what it'll say?

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Gotta be Fear by now, eh? I know people are dumb, but they can't be THAT dumb, can they?

The traditional 100x to 120x rent to purchase price equation is now laughable, wouldn't you say?

I've always known that real estate investors (real ones, not the fake ones these past few years) use a 100x or 120x rule of thumb when evaluating potential rental properties to purchase, so that a 10% to 12% ROI before expenses could be achieved. Even a trained monkey wouldn't buy a property with a negative ROI after expenses, unless he was a gambling monkey, vs. an investor monkey.

So, are you laughing yet? Or crying? Because we all know that rule of thumb not only got thrown out the window, the thumb got chopped off too. Places are going for 300x and 400x rental income now.

Take my old loft in Arizona. I tried to rent it (before I woke up and sold) for $1000 a month and had no takers, figured $800 would be right.

$800 x 120 = $96,000. Yet the place sold for over $300,000.

See the problem? Plus then you've got the stupid always-rising condo association fees, taxes, maintenance and not being able to rent the unit out. "Investors" were just gamblers betting on future appreciation, and now they've lost. Big time.

So do the math with your place - give us real examples. And we'll laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh, because we all know one day the 100x to 120x rule will apply again, we know rents ain't gonna be going up, so you know what that means... Watch out below!

It would be fun to go look at condos or houses with a real estate clerk, ask how much the place would rent for, then offer 100x. Oh, man, would that be fun. Especially when the place is being offered at 400x.

Look to achieve 12 per cent rental return "Some landlords are happy to receive eight, nine, or ten per cent rental return however I feel that a 12 per cent return is achievable and that is my benchmark," Mr Ahuja explained.

"I use the simple 'rule of 12' when deciding if a property is worth investing in; take the purchase price, divide by 100 thus giving the monthly rental figure that needs to be charged to obtain a 12 per cent gross yield. "For example if a property is priced at £100,000, divide by 100 giving £1,000. If the monthly rental figure (£1,000) can be achieved in the area then go for it."