HP favorites Robert Shiller and Stephen Roach are on this excellent panel talking about the credit crisis and housing crash.
Pop some popcorn, open a cold one, and spend the hour here. You'll be glad you did.
October 04, 2007
Wonk Alert: Mortgage meltdown and housing crash roundtable with housing realists Shiller and Roach
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dont you wackjobs say the CFR is a one world govt society? goes against everything you and Ronnie PPaul believe in.
i'm such a nerd i watched 45 mins of it
they all agree more rate cuts are coming
load up on SLV and GLD
I have been a "Roachite" for at least five years. . .he was a voice in the wilderness years ago. On a related note - the Financial Times this morning had an item - the top 20% account for 50% of consumer spending, and the bottom 20% account for less than 5%. . .the fix is in, and the small fry is cooked. . .Bernake has bailed out the big boys. The "stucco shitbox crowd" will be in foreclosure, while the LaJolla/Bev Hills/ Manhattan crowd will do fine thank you. . .
Yes dummy. They are telling you, after the fact, that you have just been fornicated.
They are distancing themselves from this mess.
"In 1933 the congress set up the homeowners loan corporation"
In 1933 people bought their houses to live in for a long time.
Over the last five years everybody bought houses to flip and make a quick 100 grand.
Why would a flipper sign his name to another loan if congress reenacted the homeowners loan corporation ? If you know your house is depreciating every month you're not going to be standing in line for another loan.
To see all these old baldheaded leaders of our society scratching their heads wondering what to do, scares the shit out of me.
we are so fucked!
Great video! Thank you Keith.
Roach impressed me the most. He is very direct and articulate.
Get your money out of companies that rely too heavily on the US consumer for revenues. There is no doubt we (middle class) are headed the way of the dodo bird.
This was taped at the Council on Foreign relations. This is the organization that pulls the puppet strings on Washington. They most likely planned this asset bubble and put it to work. Elimination of the middle class by the elite is their goal.
This might be an interesting video but it's the reason this country is doomed. The rich and powerful are all members of this New World Order club. How deplorable and I would hope this blog does it's homework next time they endorse the architechs of this fraud.
Explosive stuff over at MarketTicker.com:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
http://www.denninger.net/letters/fed-abuse.pdf
That's one of the best videos I've seen that describes the housing/credit crisis so clearly and accurately.
Stephen Roach pointed out that so
many people still feel "decoupled" from this crisis, and he explained why (using the Asian economy as an example) doing so would clearly be a huge mistake, and just another example of the denial that still exists out there regarding the down-turn in housing.
I especially liked these two comments by Shiller and Roach:
"If consumers are not driven by income or wealth, what are they driven by?"
- Stephen Roach
"The Fed can cut the rates, but it doesn't change the fundamental imbalanace in the housing market."
- Robert Shiller
Protracted yearly decline.
Cant find the bad paper.
Consumer led recession.
Sounds typical.
"If consumers are not driven by income or wealth, what are they driven by?"
- Stephen Roach
Why, DEBT, BANKRUPTCY and CRIME of course!
They were talking about mark to market. Currently etrade is marking its 47 billion in loans to model. The instant they mark to market they might become insolvent. They only have 1.5B according to yahoo statistics -- not much wiggle room there.
Netbank wasn't a big deal. :)
Roachie is a God. Imagine what could be done if Roach was fed chair and Shiller (and Roubini and Elizabeth Warren) were on the FOMC.
Great discussion.
I did not like everything they said. Not at all. This was prior to the fed's 50 basis pt cut but they were all looking for a cut of that magnitude just for starters.
Although I think Roachie suggested that the rate cut, since that's the only thing they can do, that is what he would do, he strongly suspected that the moral hazard it would engender would end up biting them all in the ass.
While it would hurt greatly, I believe it would be best to bite the bullet, stave off inflation and get the savings rate back up by increasing the overnight rate. ...if you've got the ballz.
"Roachie, you are the only, only, ooooonlyyyyy".
It's okay - if you were a Sox fan you'd get it.
Don't fall in love with Steve Roach. I've been reading his stuff for years too.
Around 2004 he threw in the towel and agreed with the crowd, that rising asset prices were the only thing that mattered.
Apparently now that the bottom is falling out, he's flip flopped back to his earlier beliefs. Stevie is nothing more than a stopped clock -- and we all know they are right twice a day.
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