February 24, 2008

BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the housing crash and mortgage meltdown

What's on your mind?

367 comments:

1 – 200 of 367   Newer›   Newest»
ICEMAN said...

Hey Keith, did you notice Wells Fargo, Chase, Washington Mutual, and Countrywide have started to lock out customers from their equity lines of credit accounts. This will be a huge bombshell!

Joe 6 pack is dead!

Cash is king.


ICEMAN

bradinsb said...

We will see prices at the 1998 level before it gets any better.

LauraVella said...

Whats on my mind?


The stock market- about the concern on how much it went down today and how the talking heads are calling it a buying opportunity.

To me, the stock market is as much as a buying opportunity as the housing market.

Stay away!

Anonymous said...

.




Booty call anyone?



.

Anonymous said...

.


Women only!


.

void_genesis said...

If a crisis is an opportunity for transformation then what will come from the coming bankruptcy of the USA?

Forget the obvious things like a return to regulatory standards and frogmarching. So old school.

The anger from those trashing out shown towards their homes is an interesting indicator. Collective rage and lashing out seems to be coming. How will it crystallise and coordinate itself? History says that powerful nations deprived of essential imported resources tend to start rampaging around the world (germany, japan). Will the rest of the world be strapping the strung out corpse of the USA down to the gurney?

Anonymous said...

Australia's Reserve Bank has signalled that it will continue to increase interest rates until it hurts enough to dent inflation in an aggressive statement defending its latest rate rise its third in six months.

Kuwait's central bank is not happy that domestic inflation is historically high

Indonesia's central bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second month after raising its inflation target for 2008.

Soaring energy and food prices pushed Italian inflation to a decade high in January, making consumers’ dwindling buying power a central issue for an election due to be held by mid April.

Food prices will remain high in 2008 globally and will change overall inflation expectations, according to financial management and advisory firm Merrill Lynch.

Agflation is lifting inflation rates in the emerging markets as well.

China's inflation rate may be heading to a 10-year high due in large part to agflation.

Motorhead "Eat the Rich" said...

REally?!

FaceDown said...

The thing that is on my mind is that there aren't many places on this planet where you can be free. Just seeing the pictures of Clinton and McCain on this site remind me how far we have fallen and how much further we will fall.

Anonymous said...

The pound rose the most against the euro in three weeks after an industry report showed growth in U.K. services unexpectedly quickened for a second month in January.

Anonymous said...

The U.S. central bank's interest-rate cuts may be a quick fix for 2008, but they'll create a massive inflationary push in 2009, leading right back into another boom-bust cycle.

Anonymous said...

Weather-related job losses in construction trades in the Pittsburgh region in December helped push unemployment to its highest level in a year

PONCH said...

I was a large internet seller of Transformers robot toys for 10 years. Now I'm tired of it, and am blowing out stuff left and right. I share a one-bedroom with a hot chick and two sexy cats, so we can use the extra storage space...it's freeing and awesome to live uncluttered. Sometimes I feel like home owners turn their homes into stagnant swamps of posessions over the long years. We look at places, and from the outsides, you can tell that the insides are self-inflicted mental filth. Of course some people would claim to like it, but...well, I guess we all get to choose how we live, and that's fine.

Bitter Realty said...

Peter Schiff on Cavuto
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1a5_1202219905

Keyser Soze said...

Larry'Greatest Coke Ever Sold' Kudlow, said we were in a recession.
What does your dealer say?

Mammoth said...

This is a good read for HP Goldbugs. The last line is the real kicker!

Gold Coin 'Worth $15m' Found in Closet

An Egyptian couple have discovered a rare Double Eagle gold coin valued at up to $15 million while cleaning out a closet in their home, according to reports.

Experts believe it is part of a 1933 collection of Double Eagle American $20 coins that was presented to Egypt's King Farouk by then-US president Theodore Roosevelt, the man who stopped the production of gold coins.

The find is particularly rare as it bears the later, 1907 Double Eagle design, which was created by US sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens. Only 12,367 of the high-relief version of these coins were ever produced.

It is notable for omitting the motto In God We Trust, as Roosevelt, who asked Saint-Gaudens to redesign American coins, did not believe the word God should appear on money.

Here’s the link to the full article:
http://tinyurl.com/2bsbj4
- Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Kieth:

You should do a post on how many people posters have saved from financial suicide. To date, I have saved about 4 or 5 of my closest friends from buying homes last year, which are now 100s of thousands of dollars less- they always thank me and tell others to listen to me. The 2 others, well I could not get the gun out of their hands and they pulled the trigger in late 2005/2006.

Anonymous said...

The Mexican...

I sold a house in sd 390K sept06
-Back then Zillow price was 400K.
-Current Zillow price is 330K.
-Countrywide foreclosure site has a comp. house a block away for 209K

My point: As bank owned properties sell, houses will really start to tank.

Once prices take these significant drops, even people with good equity will be upside down (not able to refi.) regardless of how low interest rates go.

edd said...

"In God We Trust",
and "under God" in the modified
pledge, are short professions of
monotheism that should have no
place in a society where people
have freedom of thought and
belief; right or wrong.

At least a billion people in the world would not want "God" on their currency, including many
good Americans who might be Hindu, agnostic, or advocates for genuine freedom.

Despite the requisite references
to God in the founding documents,
Amendment I includes:
"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion …", and a profession
of monotheism on the currency is
in the realm of "religion".

We have the right to be "wrong",
at our personal peril.

westwest888 said...

Can't wait for this to start happening...

http://tinyurl.com/2fcdje

"The homeowner just assumes, well the bank's going to take my house, but the bank can make the economic decision not to take the house," said Cindy Cooper, a Housing Court prosecutor in Buffalo. "Then that leaves two parties walking away, each one thinking that the other is going to take care of the house."

Across the street from Charles Gliha's cozy 120-year-old home stand three vacant houses, including one with the first-floor windows broken out. Another is being repaired, and a sign in the window warns would-be thieves that there are no copper pipes inside.

Anonymous said...

Euros Accepted' Signs Popping Up in New York City

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23031776

Tired of bailing out the reckless said...

HP'ers Here's the banking community asking for a US Government Treasury funded bailout.

http://tinyurl.com/2fnw7s

This is complete B.S. Scream long and loud to all about this ridiculous nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Inflation on day to day needs such as food and energy

Deflation on big ticket items - things that normally require credit for purchase

It's known as stagflation

Anonymous said...

The bubble areas will be destroyed. Their entire economies depended on MEWs. All those cars, boats, nice dinners, vacations etc will be gone for 75% of the population. If you weren't a realtor or mortgage broker, you likely sold items or services to them. If not, then you sold something to people who got the money from a HELOC or cashout refi. Just as the dotcom crash hurt the entire economy, the housing bubble will be even worse.

  said...

Celebrity Real Estate Losers

http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/02/05/hollywood-economy-housing-biz-media-cz_dp_0206realestate.html

or

http://tinyurl.com/26l833


pretty funny

Blowfly said...

I can't wait until my brother Barrak Obama is president of the United States. The first black president!!!! Would have been better if Blowfly would be elected president. I would first of all deport all of you trailer trash imbecilic retarded morons to Alaf*ckingbama or lock you up in an institution for the mentally ill. The last thing this country needs is more renting retards. So all of you dipshits out there, it is game time. Come up with a down payment, and I don't care if you got to clean out your grandmas piggy bank. Go out and start collecting aluminum cans or panhandle at the intersection. Do anything to get you out of that rat infested shit-hole rental and join the American Dream!!!!

Anonymous said...

Like bees in a bottle we are flying at fate
beating our wings against the walls of this place
unaware that the struggle is the blood of the proof
in choosing to believe the unbelievable truth
They will dig up these ruins
and make flutes of our bones
and blow a hymn to the memory
of the Orphans of God

John Mark Heard 1951-1992


ladies and gentlemen, if you think we have any power via the vote, then you do not understand that we are all bees in a bottle .....

ron paul knows this.

get rid of the FED and take control of your money according to the constitution of the united states. then , perhaps you can talk to me about voting......but until that time, do not bother me about candidates except for ron paul, who is not bought off by the world financial interest...

Anonymous said...

Thank you for getting rid of that assinine video.

To Blofly:
Shave your ass first.....

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

A lot of stories in the MSM today about "jingle mail" (sending the keys back to the bank). And it has nothing to do with subprime. It's mostly big houses that are underwater and the owners, who put no money down, understand that they're just throwing money away when they make payments on an asset that's sinking in value. Some of these people have ARMs that haven't even reset yet and they're bailing out. Wait till the next wave of resets hits.

Anonymous said...

Oops, I was wrong, you didn't get rid of the asinine Boo Boo Pooh Bear video.

Please trash that stupid asinine video.

Blowfly:
That doesn't exempt you from shaving your hairy ass.

Juggernaut Nihilism said...

Check out this quote from a Yahoo! News story on the Chinese New Year:

"Chinese fortunes are based on a belief that events are dictated by the different balances in the elements that make up the earth -- gold, wood, water, fire and earth.

Feng shui master Raymond Lo says this year will see the earth element sitting atop water, suggesting an outward solidity built on sliding foundations."

Apparently, our fate has been written in the stars.

Ate-Up said...

Since Keith bailed on the convention, I am having a BBQ @ my 1 bedroom 600 sq. ft home next to a graveyard, in Collinsville, il. Sorry guys/gals, I am inviting ONLy Andrew Hac, DOPES, and blowfly. Andrew will supply the vittles, (he can bring vaseline, like a good guest!), and..well...three hot bleached blonde strippers too. I am not into gang bangs.

Yum, Yummy...across the board, (stick).

P.S. Keith, you are not invited for cancelling the convention!!!!!

wc said...

Did anyone read Milstein's op ed today? Bastard wants us to bail out the banks so they can loan money again and so that housing doesn't drop. In the long term I can see that the economy is in trouble but it pisses me off to reward people that spent recklessly while punishing people that didn't.
http://tinyurl.com/28h9sb

another bitter renter said...

Countrywide is selling their Gulfstream IV-

http://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft-for-sale/GULFSTREAM-IV/1990-GULFSTREAM-IV/1129674.htm?guid=9A9914A7C4244E9EAF95CA45D50BFEAEream IV

They will have to fly commercial now, poor SOBs :)

Princess Mononoke said...

Uuuuhhh, isn't this a NO brainer! I can't believe they are just NOW recognizing that it IS a conflict of interest!!!

BRUSSELS, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Credit rating agencies may be banned from helping to design structured products that they also rate, the world's top market regulators group said on Wednesday.

Lawmakers see a conflict of interest between an agency helping a bank to design structured products which they then rate.

http://tinyurl.com/2xq762

Princess Mononoke said...

FINALLY some news about this deal! Although I don't understand why they are prolonging the close of this deal????!!! What are their motives? Hhhmmm... 3rd Qtr?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The proposed merger between Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is on track, a top U.S. banking regulator said on Wednesday.

Both banks expect the merger to close in the third quarter!

http://tinyurl.com/23cul7

Anonymous said...

cash is king...making less than any form of inflation?

Anonymous said...

FLIPPERS NEVER LEARN !

Flippers bought bunch of houses 15 miles west of me (foreclosed properties) between 110 -140 K
( those houses used to sell for 160-170 in 2006)they fixed them and listed on Craigslist for rent for 1300$ month!
( machine gun required for protection in that area)
Now I'm lowballing them offering 700 $ - none will rent for sure :-)

Pitsa

Anonymous said...

"God grants Liberty only to those who love it, and are always ready to guard and defend it."

Daniel Webster

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Ate-Up said...

Since Keith bailed on the convention, I am having a BBQ @ my 1 bedroom 600 sq. ft home next to a graveyard, in Collinsville, il. Sorry guys/gals, I am inviting ONLy Andrew Hac, DOPES, and blowfly. Andrew will supply the vittles, (he can bring vaseline, like a good guest!), and..well...three hot bleached blonde strippers too. I am not into gang bangs.

Yum, Yummy...across the board, (stick).

P.S. Keith, you are not invited for cancelling the convention!!!!!

February 07, 2008 12:04 AM<<<

hey ate, what makes you think blowfly and dopes are into hot blond strippers?

keith said...

Hey you all are welcome to pull together a convention or a BBQ

But I'm too lazy and far away to do it

Some BBQ sounds good right now. They don't have that over here...

DAMN I WANT SOME CHICKEN WINGS!

Anonymous said...

Keith ,have you seen HOUSING PANIC pornolized ?
http://tinyurl.com/3xzmq6

By pornolize.com
Pitsa

Mitesh Damania said...

The fight continues in Congress and elsewhere!

Some Ron Paul links:

http://www.paulcongress.com/

http://www.hired4freedom.com/

http://www.freeople.com/

Anonymous said...

Over 86,000 mortgage jockeys were laid off in 2007 and the layoffs are expected to continue into 2008. Most of them deserved it.

Anonymous said...

The bubble areas will be destroyed. Their entire economies depended on MEWs. All those cars, boats, nice dinners, vacations etc will be gone for 75% of the population. If you weren't a realtor or mortgage broker, you likely sold items or services to them. If not, then you sold something to people who got the money from a HELOC or cashout refi. Just as the dotcom crash hurt the entire economy, the housing bubble will be even worse.
----------------------------------

My family has owned a small midwestern non-housing related business for the past 32 years.

Its was a steady cash-cow through the '80s and '90s. Our inflation adjusted sales starting jumping higher around 2002 and by 2006 were nearly tripple the previous 2 decade baseline.

Last summer sales started crashing down and down hard. The last 3 months NOV-JAN, came in at 41.3% below our two decade baseline.

With the credit markets locked up, the adverage American consumer tapped out [of 'FREE MONEY' purchasing power]; we are staring into the abyss. No choice but to let over half the production force go at the end of January.

Our best guess is that we won't climb back to our 2 decade baseline for years (maybe even 5 to 10 years). If the peak-oilers are anywhere near correct and oil goes over $200 in todays dollars -- then the net effects on our operating expenses and additional killing off of consumer disposable purchasing power will put us and perhaps over 35% of the small business in the USA *OUT OF BUSINESS".

moretroops said...

Miami Herald article today -- this problem has been ratcheting up for about 6 months now. Soon they'll open a foreclosure-dedicated court, surely.

http://www.miamiherald.com/103/story/409564.html

Blowfly said...

Sorry guys/gals, I am inviting ONLy Andrew Hac, DOPES, and blowfly. Andrew will supply the vittles, (he can bring vaseline, like a good guest!), and..well...three hot bleached blonde strippers too. I am not into gang bangs.

You sick ugly retarded f*ck!!! What makes you think Blowfly would come to your cheap ass party in your rodent infested 1BR shit hole rental trailer? Vaseline? Asswipe renters dream of parties in a real crib like Blowfly's home. I really hate you jackass renting dipshits!

Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS!

NAR adjusts forecasts and admits more losses for home prices.

Is NAR finally throwing in the towel?

http://tinyurl.com/28blcl

Anonymous said...

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8ULNH980.htm

New legal suit strategy: Allege a price fixing conspiracy b/t the bank, the builder, the brokers and the appraisers. This one might just stick with all the appraisers coming clean that they were pressured to hit the number!!!

Anonymous said...

Judgement day comes the day after the chi-coms blow out the olympic torch.

Enjoy the die-off

bubbles belong in the bong said...

yo mon, i nominate this as the theme song for 2008! Enjoy...

http://tinyurl.com/ys43dz

Anonymous said...

Reagan economics was BS and this started the bull market. You can't push demand. We did artificially maintain the bull run with low rates and now a massive adjustment to Kenesyian balance of Demand and Supply is taking place. If you followed old school economics you would have seen this in 2004, 1999 and 1991. Sorry couldn't foresee 9/11 or Enron era fraud.

On the plus side, I think the US will pull out of the hole faster than Europe. Whether or not it was planned by those stumblebums in Washingtion, we pulled a fast one on the Europeans. They let their currencies favor the US and now they are locked into maintaining the FX to counter their own inflation. I think it's hilarious that those scum suckers who have bled the US from time of the Marshall Plan (look it up) now must deal with a competitive US economy. Go Exports!! F$%^ the French, Germans and especially the Swiss.

Lastly, for those who have not lived the last 40 years worth of cycles, they always come around. You just have to be prepared for them. The world is not going to explode.

Anonymous said...

Well the Senate just passed the "Stimulus Bill" by a resounding majority, so, I guess now its time to claim that I have 20 kids and stop paying taxes to this corrupt and thieving government.

"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

Anonymous said...

a country that does not produce its own television electronics anymore is going to be forced to buy replacements because the ones they have are to be disabled. does anyone wonder who picked up the bribe money from those foreign governments or industries that it must have taken to cede the airwaves and rights that it took to get this done... when do "they" decide to disable your houses and house ownership rights......f@uck em.......

Anonymous said...

next..your houses, cars, refrigerators, stoves, water pumps, well works, ect ect...feet??????????????/ ......a consuer economy .producing nothing, in extreme debt, "forced" to buy.... see where the power is...... think treason.... a capital offence, in a country that has such low respect for life enough to do in "criminals"

Anonymous said...

oops i forgot..they wrote themselves laws as protections from being prosecuted... how about you............................

Anonymous said...

law now being written by foreign governments to be used against you and your wallet.

Anonymous said...

Romney drops out, so now all the republicturds will be rallying around McStain, get ready for all the slime boat ads smearing Clinton and Obama.

Message to Republicturds; suck it up, you had 8 years, but you used up most of your time playing musical chairs with your crooks. Idiots. You always manage to f*ck it up. Oh well, I guess the reason to have Republicturds around is to keep the broom handle company in business.

Wotten Wascal said...

To all those people that are making their credit card payments on time whilst foregoing their mortgage...ya better come up with a new game plan. BoA needs some dosh to pay for Countrywide and they are gonna make you come up with it!

http://tinyurl.com/ywhqkb

“Credit-card issuers have drawn fire for jacking up interest rates on cardholders who aren't behind on payments, but whose credit score has fallen for another reason. Now, some consumers complain, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC - News) is hiking rates based on no apparent deterioration in their credit scores at all.”

I think Panic is nigh.

Wotten – down south

Tyrone said...

There all back together, again--Schiff, Norman, and Adkins (Goldilocks).

Fox Business News 2-6-08.

Andrew from InsideSanAngelo.com said...

What about real estate on a local level. The markets that are not being affected by the bubble are seeing steady appreciation. Texas being one region that has largely avoided the sudden rise and the subsequent market corrections. The media is too quick to jump on the doom and gloom bandwagon.

Anonymous said...

Cisco Systems Inc gave a disappointing outlook on Wednesday and warned of a rapid slowdown in US and European orders, driving its shares down 8 per cent and adding to broader fears of a US recession.

"It's the most cautious I've seen CEOs in the US and Europe in many years," Chief Executive John Chambers said on a conference call after reporting quarterly results.

"We do think there is a very cautious attitude in the boardroom and that is different from six months ago."

Cisco is the latest of a slew of technology companies that have been raising warning flags about nervous consumers and businesses facing the threat of a recession

Cisco's diversification across corporate, consumer, telecommunications and government markets makes it a proxy for the overall health of global tech spending.

While investors have debated for months what impact the slowdown in the US housing sector and its spread into other consumer markets would have on the global economy, the quarterly comments from Chambers have oracular powers.

Stalwarts like Apple Inc and Intel Corp have set financial targets short of many Wall Street estimates, while Google Inc reported soft revenues and Yahoo Inc said it faced 'headwinds' and planned to cut jobs.

Anonymous said...

Who said that House price never go down in the bay area.

Allot of single family homes in Silicon Valley on sell below 400K.

Here are some recent sells too many to list them all.

SAN JOSE, 2 bed 2 bath 2,152 SF
Sold $310,000 on Dec 21, 2007
Was $650,000 on Nov 28, 2005

SAN JOSE, 4 bed 3 bath 1,599 SF
Sold $311,000 on Dec 13, 2007
Was $589,500 on Nov 30, 2004

SAN JOSE, 3 bed 2.5 bath 1,798 SF
Sold $325,000 on Dec 12, 2007
Was $799,000 on Aug 31, 2005

SAN JOSE, 3 bed 2 bath 1,200 SF
Sold $328,500 on Dec 11, 2007
Was $530,000 on Jul 08, 2004

SAN JOSE, 3 bed 1 bath 1,141 SF
Sold $342,378 on Dec 19, 2007
Was $615,000 on Jan 26, 2007

SAN JOSE, 2 bed 1 bath 1,100 SF
Sold $355,000 on Nov 29, 2007
Was $455,000 on Jan 19, 2006

SANTA CLARA, 2 bed 1 bath 840 SF
Sold $355,000 on Nov 29, 2007
Was $466,269 on Sep 24, 2007

CAMPBELL, 4 beds 3 bath 2,250 SF
Sold for $395,500 on Dec 24, 2007
Was $879,000 on Nov 22, 2006

ate-up said...

Blowfly:

Though protest too loudly! You're still invited!!!

Ate Up

P.S. Not a trailer.

KillYourTV said...

Whats on my mind is an outright boycott of the MSM from here on out!

Uncle Sam's Cabin said...

Professional Realtor leaves week-old corpse in the closet. This is a very odd way to stage a house.

LONDON (Reuters) - An estate agent who took a prospective buyer to view a house in central England found the owner hanging dead in a closet, the agency said Thursday.

It was the first viewing of the 350,000-pound ($700,000) house which had been on the market for a week. The owner was hanging from a belt inside a walk-in closet in the main bedroom.

"It was quite a shock," said a spokesman for estate agents Hartleys. "Our agent quickly ushered everyone out, locked the property and called the authorities."

The owner, a single man in his 40s, is thought to have committed suicide. He inherited the house from his mother who died recently, the estate agents said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSEIC75235620080207

Marky Mark said...

Ok - I admit I watch some trash TV. The "Millionaire Matchmaker" has male millionaires and tries to find them love (marriage) with hot women. One guy was total geek and lived with two other buddies in the freaking ghetto. The owner asked "Are you sure this guy is a millionaire?" after seeing his lifestyle and the response "yeah - we checked him out - he owns two $500,000 condos." Nobody made the connection.

In the "Millionaire Next Door" last night a panel was discussing the debt (almost $700,000) of two real estate flipper/agents who were going to get married. They lived the good life for YEARS – travel all over the world, limos, perfect teeth, $400 bottles of wine and now want a wedding (they have $20,000 cash in the bank for that) and really do not want to change their lifestyle. Oh yeah - they are $100,000 under water with their house and considering a "short sale." They guy said he is starting a great new business and needs cash for that (wonder how he would feel if someone stiffed him for $100,000 in that business). He considers himself an “entrepreneur” and was just an arrogant ass.

The world is still in denial.

Marky Mark

Ruprecht said...

The guys who created toxic slime (turning subprime mortgages into bonds) just had a convention in Vegas, and guess who threw a party for them while they were there?
That's right, Countrywide!

http://tinyurl.com/28nc2s

"The occasion was, officially, the 5th annual conference of the American Securitization Forum, a celebration of the financial wizardry that supposedly turns risky mortgages and other loans into gilt-edged securities"
"Many came in search of ways to ride out — or better yet, to profit from — the mortgage mess their industry helped to create".
"Some of the people who attended the Las Vegas gathering had recently lost their jobs and came hoping to find new ones."

formosan80 said...

http://tiny.cc/v6mLN

Euros now accepted in NYC!

Anonymous said...

Bay Area home sales drag along bottom, median price back to 2005 level

http://www.dqnews.com/
RRBay0108.shtm

Anonymous said...

Will chief economist for the California Association of Realtors admit to eating her words again when house price drops more then 10% in California.

http://www.mercurynews.com/
ci_8193840?source=most_emailed

Home price declines in California this year will be steeper than she originally forecast, an economist for the state's biggest real estate trade group said Wednesday in Campbell. But there's a silver lining: Prices are dropping fast enough that the market may hit bottom faster than most people anticipate.

"I've obviously had to eat my 'soft landing' words," said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, referring to a refrain from the statewide housing forecast she delivered in October.

Last fall she predicted median prices in the state would drop about 4 percent this year. Wednesday, she said she's in the midst of revising that forecast, and that a median price decline of 8 to 10 percent is more realistic.

Speaking to about 900 Intero Real Estate Services agents and guests gathered at the Campbell Heritage Theatre, Appleton-Young said it's "absolutely impossible" to craft a one-sentence version of how California's housing market is performing now. Conditions vary too widely among regions and even neighborhoods.

Mitesh Damania said...

Wexler Bush/Cheney Impeachement. PLEASE support him!!

http://www.wexlerwantshearings.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7M9sjRLCtQ

Mitesh Damania said...

Wexler Bush/Cheney Impeachement. Support him!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7M9sjRLCtQ

Anonymous said...

Remember there are three phases to a housing cycle.

The three phases are:

A. Slump
B. Recovery
C. Boom

Each phase have three stages.
The three stages are:

1. Beginning
2. Middle
3. Ending

During the middle stage of the housing slump flippers begin to ask themselves the question who would want live in lower-priced homes area like East Los Angles, Compton, Stockton, South Fresno, East San Jose, Oakland, North Richmond, or East Palo Alto by choice when housing price in better location are falling.

Sellers are still pricing these house in the $150,000 to $350,000 range, but during the ending stage of the housing slump when rent start dropping fast many of these home would be priced back in the pre-2003 price range of $50,000 to $125,000.

Anonymous said...

A good indication of the middle stage of a housing slump is when Federal Reserve start to aggressively cut rate

Currently there are many indications of this transition from the beginning stage to middle stage of the housing slump.

In the beginning stage of the housing slump lower-priced homes stop selling and median-priced homes continue to sell this process means that the median price of home continue to get supported.

During the transition from beginning to middle stage many lower-priced end homes are forced into foreclosure. This process forces banks to do more auction.

Many time only middle and high end homes sell in these auctions, and the banks are forced to take lower-priced homes back.

When the banks are forced to take too many of these lower priced homes back, the banks will stop working with these lower-priced homes borrowers. These sellers (many time flippers) are forced to cut price to sell their homes.

Once price are cut enough to where low income people are able to buy these homes the process begin to change the median price of home.

Anonymous said...

During the the beginning to middle transition of the housing slump the housing price peak is very noticeable and the media who work with real estate professionals begin to publish more negative news hoping these bad news will force the Federal Reserve to cut rate faster causing inflation.

As inflation expectation take hold from aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts businesses are forced to raise wage, and productively are cut.

When this happens the transition from the middle to ending stage of the housing slump occurs as many businesses begin the layoff process.

Anonymous said...

As housing bubble deflates, rent stays high

Terry Jacobs remembers the 1970s, when she paid $75 a month for a three-bedroom apartment in south Bozeman for herself and two daughters.

Over the past four decades, the 59-year-old IHOP hostess has watched the valley change and rent prices soar.

Today, her $7 an hour pay doesn’t come close to what she needs rent a place in the Gallatin Valley, where a one-bedroom apartment averages $575 a month.

“That’s just too high,” she said.

Montana’s soaring home prices have spilled over into the rental market, sending monthly rents higher all across the state, said Scott Rickard, an economist at Montana State University-Billings.

Anonymous said...

ATWATER -- Roena Carter has already suffered through one broken back.

That's why she refuses to shoulder the latest rent hike at her senior community.

After receiving notice that her rent would be going up from $860 to $930, the 63-year-old nurse began stacking her art frames against the wall and wrapping keepsakes in newspaper. Her three-bedroom duplex lies in disarray.

"I call it senior exploitation," she said with a drawl that lingers from her North Carolina roots.

Carter, along with some of her fellow senior neighbors, feels pinched by the rent increases handed down last month by Castle Vista, a retirement community off Juniper Avenue run by Ray Stone Inc., a Sacramento-based real estate investment company.

Anonymous said...

The Federal Reserve may not call it Inflation, but it is what it is.

Sneaky rent increases?

When is a rent increase, not an increase? When you call it something else.

Even in places like Orange County, where vacancy rates have gone up, some of what ApartmentRatings.com describes as “unscrupulous landlords” are finding ways to make money off their tenants without officially hiking rents. Some charges seem reasonable. Others? Well, you be the judge.

Here are some of the things landlords are doing nationwide:

1. Parking. Charge $20 or more for parking an additional car.

2. Fees for guests. Charge $5 for a one-day parking pass for a guest. If a guest stays more than three days, tack on $30 per night “guest rent.”

3. Late-rent fee on a lease. You accepted a $300 per month discount (a so-called “concession”) when you signed your lease and your rent is late by one day. Your lease stipulates that you have to pay back all your discounts (which would be $3,000 if you have been in your apartment for 10 months) and your rent goes up to the original market rate.

4. Pool or gym access fee. Charge a $100 non-refundable key deposit.

5. Storage fee. Charge $20 per month to store items on site.

6. Alternate satellite or Internet access fee. Charge a 50% premium because your apartment signed an exclusive contract with a cable company.

7. Pet extras. Charge $500 deposit for your dog or cat and an extra $100 per month for “pet rent.”

8. Disputed damages. Forget to report some holes in the carpet when you moved in? $500 of your deposit will be withheld to re-carpet the apartment.

9. Automatic lease renewal. Didn’t send your written move-out notice 30 days prior to your lease end? Your lease automatically renews for another month or year.

10. Utility charges. Landlords are getting away from common meters and charging separately for everything from water to trash collection.

Anonymous said...

As Federal Reserve continues to lower rate, inflation expectation goes up forcing businesses to raise wage.

Landlords win amid housing doldrums

Apartment rent continues to increase even though property values go down.

John Citrigno of Coldwell Banker Commercial in San Jose, addressing 140 members of the California Apartment Association in Fresno, said rents between Madera and Elk Grove have climbed from an average of $461 in 1998 to $634 while occupancy levels average 94.2%.

Also, he said rents are likely to increase even more within two years because, historically, they rise when the minimum wage increases.

He predicted rents in the $800-per-month range by 2010.

Anonymous said...

Inflation Expectation is going up.

Fresno rents rise 3.9% Apartment rents throughout the western United States climbed last year while home prices crumbled in many markets, a contrast apparently driven by the growing number of people who don't want or can't qualify to buy a house.

Fresno county's unemployment rate reached nine percent in December 2007, up from 7.5 percent

Anonymous said...

When will businesses be forced to raise salaries.

The average cost of renting an apartment rose in all 20 major Western metropolitan markets covered in a quarterly survey released Thursday by real estate research firm RealFacts Inc.

In many cases, last year's rent increases were well above the inflation rate. Apartment dwellers in the Bay Area, Salt Lake City and Seattle were all particularly hard hit as their average rents rose 8.6 percent to 10.8 percent during 2007, RealFacts said.

Rents in Portland and the Los Angeles area also increased by at least 5 percent.

Anonymous said...

When will businesses be forced to raise salaries.

Inflationary Expectation is building.

The higher rents are taking a substantial bite out of people's paychecks, especially in places such as Silicon Valley. By the end of 2007, renters there were paying an average of $160 more per month for an apartment than at the start of the year. That translated into a nearly $2,000 annual increase.

After a 10.8 percent increase in 2007, Silicon Valley's average rent stood at $1,647, tying the region with the two-county market defined by Los Angeles and Orange counties as the most expensive places in the West to rent an apartment.

Anonymous said...

How will the Federal Reserve calculate it's CPI now.

Inflationary expectation is growing, businesses will be forced to raise salaries.

Rent for your primary residence in the Los Angeles-Santa Ana-Riverside area in December was up 6.1 percent over December 2006 — the highest increase since 2004, when rents jumped 6.9 percent, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released today.

The average increase for the year was also 6.1 percent.

Princess Mononoke said...

Mitesh Damania,

I signed up at that website! I am one more raised voice SCREAMING enough IS enough!

Thank you Mitesh for the referral.

Princess Mononoke said...

Mitesh Damania,

As much as I would love to see these A-holes pay for their crimes on HUMANITY, the following bill has a provision that will PARDON President Bush and all the members of his administration of ANY possible crimes connected with the torture and mistreatment of detainees.

http://tinyurl.com/ywlwky

"The Military Commissions Act of 2006 (MCA)s restricted definitions arguably would exempt certain U.S. officials who have implemented or had command responsibility for coercive interrogation techniques from war crimes prosecutions.

This amendment is designed to protect U.S. government perpetrators of abuses during the "war on terror" from prosecution."

area 51 said...

Lawrence "scratching the bottom" Yun calls bottom in Seattle market.

Despite saying, "All real estate is local," he compares Seattle to the entire west coast and says it is an undervalued market.

"We are probably scratching the bottom in terms of home sales activity."
-Lawrence Yun

http://tinyurl.com/2ahtpo

Anonymous said...

Anyone noticed that allot of High Technology companies have been announcing laying off since the beginning of this year.

Acer Inc.
Alliance Data Systems Corporation
Altera Corporation
Analysts International Corporation
Applied Materials Inc.
Cascade Asset Management, Llc
Cerner Corporation
Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
Dell Inc.
Digeo Inc.
Edgewater Computer Systems Inc.
Election Systems & Software, Inc.
Flextronics International Ltd.
FormFactor Inc.
KEMET Corporation
LeapFrog Enterprises Inc.
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc.
Methode Electronics, Inc.
Micronas Semiconductor Holdings, AG
Mitel Networks Corporation
National Semiconductor Corporation
Sonic Foundry Inc.
TenFold Corporation
Vyyo Inc.
Westell Technologies Inc.
Yahoo Inc.

Anonymous said...

Not only is the Federal Reserve corrupt the FDA is not far behind. I congratulate France on their decision.



http://tinyurl.com/2843tt

Tyrone said...

Watch this video and think about it the next time you fill your tank...

Vanity plates sell for millions.

Anonymous said...

Based on hedge fund losses for January we could see some nasty margin calls this week as banks are required to report reserve balances.

The housing bubble which lead to a hedge fund bubble, which lead to a derivative bubble, which lead to a yen carry trade bubble, is all about to come crashing down.


http://tinyurl.com/2lvuwn

Tyrone said...

Warren Buffett...
The woes in the U.S. financial sector are "poetic justice" for bankers who designed and sold complex investments that have since gone sour, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Wednesday.

But he warned that the U.S. dollar will continue to slide unless the country can rein in its yawning trade deficit -- the "biggest factor" behind the decline. Still, he said, the U.S. economy will "do very well over time."

"It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end," he said.

BWAHAHAHA

Stuck in So Pa said...

Tyrone said...
Watch this video and think about it the next time you fill your tank...

Vanity plates sell for millions.

February 09, 2008 5:04 AM
============================
That was kinda neat! The money goes to the government, and a large chunk goes into a fund for traffic accident victims.
Considering that Dorothy’s ruby slippers went for 6-7 million the last time up, 20mil for the #1 license plate almost makes sense..................................................................almost!

Ola Dunk said...

I am thinking this song would make a good foreclosure soundtrack:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0YCXJcoCBGI

(Craig David - Walking Away (US Version)

chris g said...

Greg Swann is a douche. Just look at the last two columns on his blog and you'll see what I mean. While one writeup tells sellers to get ahead of the other sellers by whacking the price lower than the rest (actually good advice), the last writeup says that if you're a buyer that's found your dream home, don't dawdle.

Nice work Swanny Boy...you're basically telling both sellers AND buyers to race toward a closing.

It's never been a better time to get a commission, eh?

Informed2008 said...

So the question is "Where are RE prices heading"

Perhaps the question should be "When will housing prices stop falling"

To do so you need a few things to take place. Most of which are currently very far from happening. Here is a short list of what needs to take place to stop the falling prices and get us to a state of stability. You cannot begin to wonder when prices will rise until they stop falling and then become stable (it's called a cycle).

1. You need jobs.

Note: We can clearly see from the jobs reports that this isn't happening right now, and especially good paying jobs...

2. You need buyers.

Note: Hard to have buyers without jobs to support them. This is not to say there are not plenty of buyers out there. There just isn't enough of them that qualify to make a difference. The rules have changed in lending by quite a bit. You may find a lender here or there that will be a tad more lax in their lending, but as a rule now you need documented income, a down payment of atleast 10% in most cases, an ability to pay it back (3X-4.5X) income, and good credit to get any reasonable interest rate.

3. You need sellers.

Note: Sellers with realistic prices. Recent reports suggest that most still think that their homes are gaining in value or holding steady. We know that is simply not the case by several reports available. This tends to create a holding pattern by buyers awaiting for this reality to set in. A stalemate of sorts is currently in play. With rising foreclosures and speculators at the end of their rope it is causing sharp drops in prices across the state. Potential buyers see this and pull back seeing as they don't really have to buy, but many sellers (including banks now) have to sell.

4. You need a psycological change to take place.

Note: The news is bad and getting worse with every passing day for housing. This free fall in sales and prices is hurting the healing process. Most that are on the fence have jumped off and most of those thinking about buying have changed their minds. There are still sales taking place, but at a much lower pace than needed to gain any momentum.

We are now entering a period of decline and many are now using the "R" word. This does not bold well for any chance of a turn around any time soon. Consumer confidence is waning and there is a lot of pressure on companies to turn profits of which many simply cannot do right now. Retail is extremely slow, and commercial markets are really in jeopardy. The stock market is over valued and globally we are feeling the pressure of the declining dollar as well as a global slow down. Real inflation (i.e. food and energy) is out of control and hampering the ability of many to save. Without the down payments now required they have little to no chance of qualifying for a loan even if they want to buy. We have what many economist are calling a systemic melt down in the financial sector. This will eventually cause long term rates to rise and for these companys to look to raise revenue in other ways. CC companies are raising there rates, ATM rates are rising, and points are now back in play when applying for certain mortgages. Companies are cutting or doing away with dividends and p/e ratios are way out of whack. Now we are seeing that the monolines are in trouble and this has the potential of placing lots of risk and on the books of lenders that can't handle it. This will further tighten lending and restrict borrowing. All of these things are in the way of a turn around anytime soon and all of this when we have not even reached bottom yet. By the time we get there it will be much worse which begs the new question "When will housing prices stop falling"

Probably not for a long time...

Tyrone said...

There's no place like home.
*click heels*
There's no place like home.
*click heels*

Paulson confident on growth, says US not in recession
"I believe that we are going to keep growing. If you are growing, you are not in recession, right? We all know that," Paulson said after a meeting in Tokyo of finance chiefs from the Group of Seven rich nations.

Anonymous said...

http://www.powayrbteam.com
/page.cfm?page=NewMap

from:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Economist article:

Chain of Fools
http://tinyurl.com/2f2j4y

area 51 said...

California economist calls bottom:

"We have got a housing market that is absolutely at rock bottom."
-Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast.-

He goes on to prod prospective home buyers to BUY NOW....

http://tinyurl.com/26a2z5

Anonymous said...

60 Minutes segment: Iraq and Pentagon Waste, Fraud, and Criminal Contracts

http://tinyurl.com/2kl6ga
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f6e_1202595306

Anonymous said...

Rents are up where? Maybe in the bubble areas where the morons live. My rent is lower than it was 4 years ago even though the price of gas and food has nearly doubled.

Tyrone said...

World bourses lost 5.2 trillion dlrs in January
PARIS (AFP) - World stockmarkets lost 5.2 trillion dollars (3.6 trillion euros) in January thanks to the fallout from the US subprime crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown, Standard & Poor's said Saturday.

"If investors thought the market could only go up, January's wake-up call pulled them back into reality," the independent credit ratings' provider said.

Defn: Bourses
A stock exchange, especially one in a continental European city.
(I had to look it up; lol)

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work tyrone!

Anonymous said...

Rents are up where?

Remember when timing the housing market always use the 7 trends.

There are 3 Nations trends:

1. Interest rate
2. Inflation
3. Flow of Funds

There are 4 Local trends:

A. Job Growth
B. Migration
C. New Construction
D. Path of Progress

These 7 trends are used in determining the housing cycle.

The three phases are:

A. Slump
B. Recovery
C. Boom

Each phase have three stages.
The three stages are:

1. Beginning
2. Middle
3. Ending

Rents normally goes out of control and peaks in the transitional period of the Beginning to Middle stage of the housing slump.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/
article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/09/
REF7URU6D.DTL

I prefer staying on a month-to-month rental agreement rather than a lease, but in the past 12 months I have seen my rent go from $950 to $1,125 per month.

Anonymous said...

Fighting stubbornly high inflation, China's leaders dusted off a blunt tool from its pre-market reform era and commanded utility companies to freeze electricity prices.

Anonymous said...

Swiss inflation accelerated in January to a pace faster than the central bank's threshold for price stability for the first time in more than 12 years.

Rising prices of salt, cereals and bakery products have pushed up the rate of inflation to a six-month high of 4.11 per cent in India. The inflation rate, according to an official release, moved up to 4.11 per cent for the week ended January 26 from 3.93 per cent a week ago.

Reducing inflation is a priority for Russia, as inflation hampers long-term investment in industry and processing branches, Russia's finance minister

A fall in US inventories of wheat to a 60-year low drove prices of the grain sharply higher on Friday to a fresh record, intensifying fears of rising global food price inflation.

Anonymous said...

The IT industry has some job worries. More than 500 IBM and TCS employees across the country have been retrenched. This has techies in the IT industry uncertain about their future.

Worried IT guys writing, speaking their mind on blogs. This is what dominates the cyberspace these days. Well, at least in the techies' domain.

The worry stems from the recent retrenchment of many like them from the TCS and IBM.

Though many like Akhil (name changed) who works in IT firm, don't feel alarmed yet, the truth is – the younger crop IS apprehensive.

And with the gossip mills running riot, many in the industry feel their future may not be as secure as they once thought it to be.

Akhil says, "The panic hasn't as such set in. Among the fresher there might be a certain amount of wariness."

Anonymous said...

At first, Adriana Diharce ignored the envelope taped to her front door because it wasn't addressed to her. Then she saw the words "trustee sale," so she opened it. The letter said the modest, ranch-style Hayward house rented by Diharce and her husband would be sold at a foreclosure auction.

When Diharce called the phone number on the letter last month, a representative told her the house was slated for auction on Feb. 8 - Friday - and said the couple and their two young children would have to vacate almost immediately after that. Diharce called her landlady, but her phone had been disconnected.

"The landlady owes us our deposit, and we cannot locate her," said Diharce, 29, who is expecting a third child in March. "I am so upset. As a tenant, we have no rights, no deposit and nowhere to go."

Her situation is not unusual. As the mortgage crisis claims more homes - more than 11,000 Bay Area residences were repossessed by lenders last year - an increasing number of tenants are facing rapid evictions by banks eager to partially recoup their losses by selling the properties.

In November, a Chronicle analysis of Bay Area foreclosures showed that about one-fifth had nonresident owners. Presumably many of those investor-owners rented out their properties to produce income.

Anonymous said...

If it flies floats or f**** you are better off renting

http://www.costofsex.com/married_sex_cost.shtml

SkyKIngNShayking said...

Naysayers Anonymous has recently announced great increases in people seeking treatment for negativity and have opened up "chicken Little" halfway houses for worrywarts that have to see the darkness decending on their overextending lifestyles. I propose that you start a "bubblehead branch" so you can worry yourselves into an early grave. And commiserate in person where real shoulders exist to cry on. Fear is the motor of all this and fostering more and more of it just worsens a bleak situation that you can blame on every one else but your own greedy needs for more and more and more. Its the FEDS, the immigrants, the govt, BUSH, cheney, ad infinitum. Take a peak inside and honestly look and see. It could surprise you that you have contributed to this as much as Joe Sixpak and Mercedes MeFirst. Maybe there is a solution but I guarantee a constant drumbeat of doom gloom and bleakness lies a formula for more of the same. After reading all theses reports you folks so dutifully collect to increase the profits for Prozac, Pissin and moaning only serves to make more pissers and moaners and geometrically they lead us in to more malaise and the economic demise you fearmongers love to fear. Good work. Its working. and your not. The American people suffered a lot more than the loss of their hot tubs, gold faucets and survived before, how about sucking it up and coming up with some ideas to fix it. It starts with you, the poor hapless victims of the banker badguys, and the perpetrators of buy now pay later philosophy. Later is here. The Sky is falling and you can revel in being bankrupt and right. Or not. Pay up.. Skyblue Lee keeping an eye on the status of all bad news and the abuse of it.

SkyKingNShayking said...

It was reported today that due to no news good or otherwise, smiles were seen on otherwise pinched and worried faces, as another day passed and the sky remained in place, as measured by the US atmospheric and space adminstrators. It was a day of talk only of the weather and what Operah did to save the human race from itself. She dispensed cars to all in her audience.

SkyKingNShayaKing said...

Dateline: Washington DC
Todays news involved nothing more than a review of the movie "Its a Wonderful Life" and the ramifications discussed on Nightline, David Letterman, and leading experts on its deeper meaning and insights. A statue of Jimmy Stewart was unveiled at ceremony in general area of the Einstein statue. Nothing else really happed this day and again the USAF confirmed the sky firmly in place much to the chagrin of millions.

Anonymous said...

"We are probably scratching the bottom in terms of home sales activity."
-Lawrence Yun

I think Larry Yun has been scratching his bottom in terms of finding something believable to say.

Anonymous said...

fractional reserve bankers loaned out ten times deposits, so do not think housing could not fall more than 90 percent to sop up "lose" liquidity, or not feel that they will make your little bits of real money worthless at the same time...those people with borrowed money were bidding up prices and creating dollars that did not exists and "hopefully will not exists to bid higher and higher

Anonymous said...

February 09, 2008:

Median Price..........Jan17, 2008

All homes.................$630,000
Total resale houses......$690,000
Total condominiums.....$481,500
Total new homes.........$616,500

Real estate sales prices and volume for Santa Clara County

http://viewfromsiliconvalley.com/
id125.html

Anonymous said...

Was 09/24/2007 the peak for

SANTA CLARA.........Median Price
All homes................$700,000
Total resale houses.....$800,000
Total condominiums....$527,000
Total new homes........$661,500

Anonymous said...

maybe the poll selection, "Mortgage holder" should be something like "mortgage holder / debtor / borrower" since some states rarely have real mortgages.

Anonymous said...

The inflation rate in Sri Lanka has been reaching dizzying heights lately. It was 21.6 per cent on an average in 2007. In November it touched an all-time high of 26.2 per cent.

Sri Lanka also has the highest rate of inflation in South and Southeast Asia, points out Harsha de Silva, chief economist of LIRNE Asia, a regional development economics think tank.

"At the end of the last quarter, inflation in Indonesia was seven per cent; in Thailand 2.6 per cent; in Malaysia two per cent; in Singapore 2.9 percent; in the Philippines three per cent; in India six per cent; and in Bangladesh it was 11.2 per cent," he pointed out in a recent article on Sri Lanka's monetary policies.

"We are the champions, champions of bad policies driving people to misery," he said mockingly.

Anonymous said...

Fresno city inspectors face frustrating challenges in battling blight caused by foreclosed homes.

Generally they only learn of a foreclosure -- which often leaves a property vacant, becoming a magnet for crime, squatters and decay -- too late, when the problems have upset neighbors. Officials said they lack the resources to check foreclosure properties before complaints are filed.

The city first heard of a problem last May, when a neighbor complained of furniture and construction material outside the house and a dead lawn.

Inspectors mailed a warning notice to the property owner, not realizing that the house had been repossessed by the lender.

Five months later, trash still littered the yard, and other problems remained. "This property looks vacant," an inspector noted.

In October, the city sent a notice to Option One Mortgage Corp., based in Irvine, which maintains the mortgage for Wells Fargo, records show.

Option One spokeswoman Christine Sullivan said the company never received the notice. She said the company wasn't aware of the code violations until it was contacted by The Bee last week.

The city is considering a number of changes to make code enforcement more effective.

Among them: Amending its property code to shorten the time to complete cases and increasing fines for vacant homes, said Charlotte Hylton, deputy city attorney for code enforcement.

Anonymous said...

Thieves have been systematically stripping fixtures from one of the largest homes in the county since the residents left

While the property is fenced, one of the front gates is open wide enough for a truck to drive through. So are the French doors leading into the house - because the doors themselves are missing. In fact, so is the front door and several side doors, allowing leaves and other debris to start piling up inside.

Besides the missing doors, thieves have stripped the house of light fixtures, faucets, carpets, window coverings, toilets, anything copper - including pipes, tubing and the main electrical panel - and chiseling lots of grout to remove bathtubs

Environmental Health's Alan Biedermann has seen a sharp increase in problem homes that are damaged like the Guzman house. Many are way beyond repair and must be demolished, he said.

"Stealing is becoming way more common. We've got five properties in that area alone that we're dealing with now,"

About every six months, he takes demolition contractors on a tour of abandoned homes so they can bid on deconstructing the property. Typically, five to 10 contractors are interested in the work. On last summer's tour, they visited 17 homes.

Last week on his most recent tour - called a bid walk - Biedermann led 30 contractors through 32 homes slated for the wrecking ball.

"It's going to probably get worse before it gets better,"

Washington Mutual spokesman Gary Kishner said Thursday it was the bank's usual policy not to comment on specific properties facing foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

REALTOR Steve Fernandes held an "Open House" on a recent Saturday morning here. He waited in the center of the living room next to a roaring fireplace, a homey touch on a cold, hazy Central Valley day.

Fernandes, sipping coffee out of a thermal mug, had two interested parties that stopped by looking over the four-bedroom, three-bath, 3,176-square-foot Centex home. But Fernandes, a broker at Silver Creek Realty Group Property Management, wasn't selling the home.

RENTIBusiness 3He's renting it out for $1,995 a month.

Drew Jacobsen, 23, of Livermore looked over the home for a friend who asked him to go while she worked that weekend. He said the home just outside Tracy is on the "top of her list."

"In Livermore, you're lucky to get 2,000 feet for $2,500," he said. "Here you can get an extra 1,000 square feet for less — and it's only about 15 minutes extra driving time."

With many homes languishing on the market, homeowners are choosing to rent out their new custom homes rather than sell in a down market. The renters, a large portion escaping foreclosure, are willing to pay $2,000 to $3,000 a month for a new house in the same neighborhood or school district for half of a mortgage payment.

"Mainly, it's to help pay the mortgage," he said. "They don't want to sell right now, and they can't afford to hold onto the property."

Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the "market will come back" — which is why they choose to rent the home. For renters, the new homes are also attractive. Renting now doesn't have to mean a cramped apartment in an urban area. It can mean a never-lived-in home with all the amenities.

"When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive," he said.

Anonymous said...

There is a reason why rent begin to drop in the Middle stage of the housing slump.

Remember the 7 trends, when determining what stage of the housing slump your city is in.

The Valley's average rent in the fourth quarter of 2007 was $775 per month, according to real estate software firm RealData. That's up from $759 a year ago but only $2 more than the third quarter 2007.

"Rental homes compete right now with apartments more than they ever have," said Pete TeKampe, a broker at Marcus & Millichap.

The Valleywide apartment vacancy rate was 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter 2007, compared with 9 percent a year ago, TeKampe said.

An estimated tens of thousands of vacant homes have been thrown into the rental pool by investors and homeowners who failed to sell.

Some owners fell into foreclosure. Others had to move for other reasons and find a way to keep paying the mortgage, said Bob Kammrath, owner of Valley research firm Kammrath & Associates. No one is predicting a quick turnaround for housing, Kammrath added.

Apartments in East Valley cities that saw a lot of home building, such as Gilbert and Chandler, have been harder hit, said John Carlson, asset manager at property management firm Mark-Taylor. "It's a competition we're not used to seeing in the multifamily business," Carlson said.

A renter can get a three-bedroom home with a pool in Chandler for $1,200 a month, compared with $1,400 or $1,500 for a similar-sized, high-end apartment, he said.

Anonymous said...

All of the political bloggers are buzzing on about the housing crisis, and most all of them are pondering one thing, or, more accurately, one man.

Who is this man who is rising to fame while the housing market crashes? Hyman Minsky -- an obscure and dead economist whose major theories were all proposed in the 1960s and 70s.

Why is this man of such interest to the blogosphere? Well, to many people (or many people who publish over the internet, anyway) it seems that Minsky's theories on financial crises are coming true with the seemingly inevitable housing market crash.

Minsky theorized that financial markets run in a cycle. The cycle begins in prosperous times, when there is money to be had. This prosperous environment leads to what Minsky called a "speculative euphoria" -- investors go into large amounts of debt in order to buy into the soaring market.

Eventually the amount of debt that they are in exceeds the amount of profit to be made, which causes banks to call in the loans issued to investors. This, in turn, causes investors to sell in order to pay off their loans, and this massive sell-off of investments leads to a crash in the market. At this point, the cycle can start all over again.

Many people have written that the housing market has reached that fated "Minsky moment."

E34 in Nova said...

So my wife saw a house that was empty on her way back and forth from work and we decided to look at it. We found it is a forclosure and the prvious FB managed to F it up nicely including ripping out the dinning room chandalier. The house was listed at about 30% off what the FB bought it for, so I decided what the heck I'll inspect it and if it doesn't have anything major, I'll fix it up and move in it if they accept 50% off the top. Fate has it that the inspector doesn't show up but my realtwhore tells me that there is going to be an offer on the property and I should put an offer on it. What perfect timing, only when I looked at it, an offer came even though it has been on the market for over 4 month with ZERO offers. Anywho I play along, and he keeps priming me telling me, "what a weird market, I have a customer who put in an offer less than asking on another house and now there is a counter offer and they have to pay 5K more than listing". I am thinking what a bunch of BS. He keeps telling me "House prices are going up, but don't quote me on it" and this just threw me over the top. Came time for putting the offer and I stuck to my guns and offered 50^ from FB purchase price and the guy went from level 10 on hyper mode to a negative 10, he was shocked. After he used his tricks to make me put a higher offer it didn't work and I disapointed him. Oh well, I will wait to hear the rejection from the bank sometime on monday or tuesday.
Sorry for the rant but this guy got on my nerves with his BS and all the time he is telling me "I am your agent, I do what you want" some more BS.

E34 in Nova

Princess Mononoke said...

E34 in Nova
February 10, 2008 11:31 PM
========================

Great story! Thank you for sharing. This proves that NOTHING has changed with regard to agents and brokers. They are still used car salesman, using the same sales pitch! They have NOT learned anything from this crisis! Pity.

Until they learn to change their ways, serving the client and NOT their own self-interest THAT is when we can start seeing a bottom.

Tyrone said...

E34 in Nova,
Nice story. F**k 'em!

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm. If Obama wins the nomination it would be monumental (and interesting) if he chose Ron Paul as a running mate.

That would make an interesting pair that just might lead to true bipartisan leadership.

Food for thought.

Tyrone said...

Too late! Actually, it has always been too late. The house prices were too high, pure and simple. So keep those renters paying, Countrywide.

Countrywide to aid more borrowers
LOS ANGELES - Countrywide Financial Corp., under pressure to help stem growing home loan defaults, says it will expand programs to help borrowers manage their mortgage payments regardless of the type of subprime loan they have or whether they have already fallen behind on payments.

Under the latest plan, borrowers with subprime hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, which typically were issued with a low "teaser" interest rate and then adjust higher after two or three years, could be offered the option of refinancing into a lower prime rate loan, or have their initial interest rate frozen for five years.

Homeowners with fixed-rate subprime loans who have fallen behind on payments could be offered short-term repayment plans, loan modifications or other adjustments, including having their interest rate frozen or adding their overdue balances to their principal loan amount.

Anonymous said...

Actually affordability has gotten better since December 19, 2007.

As of January 17, 2008 the median price of existing home in Silicon Valley is $690,000; therefore, it is now only about 11 times annual income.

Which either means the median household income has allot further to raise or median price of existing home in Silicon Valley has still has allot further to drop to go back to historical norm.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/

Consider Silicon Valley, home to much of the driving force for our economy in the '90s. Today the median price of an existing home in Silicon Valley is $775,000, but the median household income there is only $62,020. A home in the area costs almost 13 times annual income.

Home prices in that market would have to drop nearly 70 percent or income would have to triple, and interest rates would have to stay low for the price-to-income ratio to reach a more affordable level.

Here in the Washington metropolitan area, the median home price is about eight times the median household income.

Anonymous said...

THE G7 finance ministers and central bankers left Tokyo yesterday as they arrived last week: fundamentally divided on policy responses to the growing global emergency.

Take monetary policy. The G7 meeting highlighted that the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan remained deeply reluctant to follow the lead of the Fed's 1.25 per cent reduction of US interest rates and the Bank of England's 25-point cut last week.

While Ben Bernanke tries to unfreeze credit markets and stimulate domestic recovery, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insists, despite last week's "tightening pause", that restraining inflation remains his priority.

The BoJ's problem is simpler: with a 0.5 per cent official rate it has nothing credibly to cut. Widening rate differentials will feed some currency disparities, which were already pronounced beforehand. In fact, the undervalued yen and excess liquidity created by previous monetary policy in Japan was a major factor inflating the international credit bubble before August.

The Europeans have tried to have previous meetings consider a concerted approach to exchange rates. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde in particular has been bothered about how the high euro is debilitating the European economy. But Japan has no intention of allowing any co-ordinated tampering that would necessarily hasten the yen's revaluation. As well, it is encoded in every Tokyo official's genes that Japan is still living with the consequences of the last grand international currency strategy, the 1985 Plaza Accord.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, meanwhile, must continue to pretend for domestic political purposes that US policy supports a strong greenback, when an intended consequence of everything now being done in Washington is to weaken the dollar.

Anonymous said...

President Hugo Chavez on Sunday threatened to cut off oil sales to the United States in an "economic war" if Exxon Mobil Corp. wins court judgments to seize billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets.

Exxon Mobil has gone after the assets of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA in U.S., British and Dutch courts as it challenges the nationalization of a multibillion dollar oil project by Chavez's government.

"If you end up freezing (Venezuelan assets) and it harms us, we're going to harm you," Chavez said during his weekly radio and television program, "Hello, President." "Do you know how? We aren't going to send oil to the United States. Take note, Mr. Bush, Mr. Danger."

Princess Mononoke said...

"If you end up freezing (Venezuelan assets) and it harms us, we're going to harm you," Chavez said
February 11, 2008 6:51 AM
=========================

And let the games begin...

The Dictators of the World who are NOT cooperating with the 'New World Order' (NWO) cronies will NOW start pounding their chest like ALPHA males!

When in realty the 'PTB' see them as BETA and OMEGA males in the hierarchy. ~ wiki the terms

They want international notoriety and will get it by screwing each other... Not literally of course, I mean financially, where it really hurts the 'PTB'.

Can anyone PLEASE give these A$$holes a shot of estrogen to bring down their testosterone (EGO) levels!

WE CAN'T AFFORD CONGRESS ANY MORE said...

http://bartonbulletin.wordpress.com/2008/02/02/we-cant-afford-congress-anymore/

buttcrackofdoom said...

thanks for saving me more than i could make in 5 years with a job by selling 03-06, still near peak price

Freddie Moorer said...

Like the old saying “what goes up must come down” Sellers had their run now it’s the buyers turn.

Blowfly said...

Dear Senior Dipshit Chavez:
Thank you for your imbecilic comments and non-working veiled threats against our great country. It is obvious that an individual such as yourself who looks more like a f*cking monkey than a human being was elected by a raving hoard of lunatics and sheep sodomizing morons who’s only qualification and skill is leading jackasses in the ranchitos of Caracas. Every time I see your retarded ass-face in the media it makes me want to chuck it up. Dumb ass imbecile morons such as yourself ought to be tied up, whipped and hauled back into the jungle to your tree swinging relatives. And yes, we are gonna confiscate all your money and spend it like a muthafucka! You can use your oil to lubricate your ass Senior half witted, idiot, lamebrain, numbskull, cretin, cock sucker Chavez.

Anonymous said...

and to think i thought the 54,000 average household income numbers were bogus in just the fact that it took 2 incomes to get 54,000 thus average house price fairly should be 81,000.......strange.

Anonymous said...

Mexicans are going to own us

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-02-11-population-study_N.htm

Mitesh Damania said...

John Conyers starting hearing to IMPEACH Bush/Cheney:

http://tinyurl.com/2e2g7z

Please call, write, email to support him!!

Anonymous said...

Ya think blowfly's gotten it in the ass? poor guy.

Beignet said...

Do you think Peter Schiff monitors this blog?

I do.

Beignet

Princess Mononoke said...

This is outrageous injustice! The Pentagon has announced today it will seek the death penalty for the six suspects charged in the 9/11 attacks. I say injustice because these detainees get no LEGAL representation. So basically these hearings are purely ONE SIDED!

So now what's to stop all other countries from passing bullshit legislation like this and capture, prosecute and kill our U.S. citizens or U.S. miliary under suspicion of anything they fricken want...

http://tinyurl.com/3bgzvc

Anonymous said...

"My point: As bank owned properties sell, houses will really start to tank."

i think so too. this will be the next big shoe to drop

tater said...

Hey blowfly. I'm hearin ya on Chavez. He is nothing but a little sawed off smart ass that needs to have his ass introduced to the back of his head. that way both his ass and his head would be together spewin out shit. everytime i see this cat he makes my blood boil. i say the u.s go down there and don't be bashful about it and say we're comin for the oil. Don't give this little squig Chavez nothing but trouble. then put him in a prison where the men like their boys short. chavez better be lookin out for his ass then. it would serve the little smart ass well to get "violated" by a few horny lifers in prison. he'd squeal like a fat little pig.

Anonymous said...

Traditionally the best time to buy is somewhere the between the Ending Stage of the Housing Slump and the Beginning Stage of the Housing Recovery.

Although the Phases is easier to determine using the 3 National trends the Stages can be different for each city so use the 4 local trends.

There are 3 National trends:

1. Interest rate
2. Inflation
3. Flow of Funds

There are 4 Local trends:

A. Job Growth
B. Migration
C. New Construction
D. Path of Progress

These 7 trends are used in determining the housing cycle.

The three phases are:

A. Slump
B. Recovery
C. Boom

Each phase have three stages.

The three stages are:

1. Beginning
2. Middle
3. Ending

The only catch of course is how many more housing cycles do we have left.

The Federal Reserve is gambling that we have one more Housing Cycle and this may be the last Housing Cycle before the interest rate cycle have to be reset.

The interest rate cycle is the mother of all cycle.

Anonymous said...

UK short sterling futures -- a gauge of interest rate expectations -- fell after much stronger-than-expected producer price inflation data suggested the Bank of England will have little room to cut interest rates further.

Official figures showed input prices jumped by 2.6 pct in January from December, way above analysts' expectations for a 1.3 pct rise, giving a massive annual rise of 19.1 pct, the biggest increase for 22 years.

Output price figures, meanwhile, showed companies have had to pass on these extra costs into their prices, with the monthly rise of 1.0 pct the biggest since January 1995 and again easily beating forecasts for a 0.4 pct increase.

'For a market which is aggressively priced for future easing, this will make for uncomfortable reading and rate cut expectations will need to be pared back,' said Daragh Maher at Calyon.

'There are plenty of lingering hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee who will point to today's data as further reason to be careful about cutting rates too quickly,' he said.

Anonymous said...

NYH heat oil up on weather

Values for heating oil in the New York Harbor rose on Monday as a cold snap in the Northeast was expected to boost demand in the world's largest market for the heating fuel, traders said.

Demand for heat oil in the Northeast is seen averaging 3.6 percent above normal this week as cooler weather returned to the region, the National Weather Service said.

U.S. Gulf Coast ultra-low sulfur diesel climbed amid news of a power failure and subsequent processing unit shutdowns at Citgo's Lake Charles refinery.

In other refinery news, Valero's Delaware City, Delaware refinery was completely shut on Sunday due to a power failure

area 51 said...

And now.....

The latest housing bubBLe krAze....

DECONSTRUCTION!

Line up folks for your own heapin' helpin' load of DeCONstRuctIOn........

Thieves (illegals) and contractors (out of work) are now disassembling houses, taking all the hardware....

That ought'a give a boost to the economy, ya think? when they have to buy all new hardware just to sell the place a few years down the road?.....

Call it "Strip This House" on HGTV 2.0.....

OR
-House Stripping Hunters..
-My Stripped House Is Worth What?
-Strip It.....
-Buy Me, Stripped or Not....
-This Old Stripped House....
-Bought, Stripped and Sold...
-Before, Stripped and After...
-Stripped to Sell....
-Extremely Stripped Homes...
-I Want That! (So I Stripped It)
-If Stripped Walls Could Talk...


http://tinyurl.com/2sghq2

Anonymous said...

One would think looking at the days of inventory indicator chart that Santa Clara County is at the Ending Stage of the housing slump.

Yet, it is still transiting from the Beginning Stage to the Middle Stage of the housing slump.

http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/
newsletter.html

Princess Mononoke said...

Hi HPer's, I want to touch on the subject of massive U.S. layoffs that are being masked and swept under the rug by the U.S. Dept of Labor... Every damn Republican I've talk to or heard on the news has said quite adamantly that OUR economy is doing phenomenal right NOW! Are ALL these people cloned or what???

I heard this past week that the HUGE automaker Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge is cutting production to reduce cost and therefore will have to layoff thousands of manufacture workers and close dealerships.

So, I decided to start researching just how many layoffs have occurred since this debacle began. You know, get the real numbers. O-M-G, there are sooooo many corporations that have laid off OUTSIDE of the Mortgage industry that have been affected by this mess. It will take me a while to tally these numbers and post.

Anyhoo, here is the link to the U.S. Dept of Labor Statistics http://tinyurl.com/39m2e9

Look at the TOTAL... shouldn't that number be Private Non-farm + Manufacturing = such and such. If so, then these numbers don't add up???? and are bogus!

Princess Mononoke said...

Is it just me or does anyone else out there feel like we are living in the "INVASION of the Body Snatchers" Movie???

http://tinyurl.com/yjhvvl

Assured at first by the town psychiatrist that the cases are nothing but "epidemic mass hysteria".

Bennell soon discovers, with the help of his friend Jack Belicec, that the townspeople are in fact being replaced by simulations grown from plantlike pods; perfect physical duplicates who kill and dispose of their human victims.

The Pod People are indistinguishable from normal people, except for their utter lack of emotion.

Anonymous said...

NYT: Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans

http://tinyurl.com/yoyvw2

"The Doyles took advantage of the housing boom by refinancing their home nearly every year since they bought it in 1995 for $275,000. Until their most recent loan they never had a problem making their payments. They invested much of the money in shares of companies that subsequently went bankrupt."

yedinite said...

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0208.html

Keith - you gotta give this one it's own showcase.

Behind Door #1 - How we got here!

yedinite said...

@Sky-high idiot:

http://history1900s.about.com/library/photos/blygd6.htm

http://history1900s.about.com/library/photos/blygd7.htm

http://history1900s.about.com/library/photos/blygd8.htm

And economies don't operate in cycles? And the gap between the rich and the poor (who actually spend money to a far greater proportion, and with greater economies of scale, spend far more) has never been greater in a consumer economy?

Any more questions - you moron?

yedinite said...

Wait a second, you Chavez haters.

Why hate someone who's spreading wealth to the lower and middle-class from the wealthy?

If you're one of the wealthy, what the hell are you doing on the internet?

If I was wealthy, I'd be chilling with hot movies starlets and not your ugly selves.

Think about where you get your hate...Fox, NY Times, etc, etc.

All of which are owned by major corporations.

Maybe some history is in order - why not look up the Spanish-American war?

We put our lives on the line for a corporate accounting line.

Princess Mononoke said...

"Only after the last tree has been cut down. Only after the last river has been poisoned. Only after the last fish has been caught. Only then you will find that money cannot be eaten."
~ Cree Indian Proverb

http://tinyurl.com/24ahdd

http://tinyurl.com/39l77c

Princess Mononoke said...

yedinite said...
>>>Wait a second, you Chavez haters. Why hate someone who's spreading wealth to the lower and middle-class from the wealthy?

=========================

You ARE kidding aren't you??? Chavez is a Military Dictator with a humongous EGO! But then again these two descriptions ARE synonymous right.

"Some social scientists and economists claim that the government's reported poverty figures have NOT fallen in proportion to the country's vast oil revenues in the last two years." ~ wiki

He is a fantastic talker. Has great ideals and has made many promises to keep the Chavistas loyal to him. Nevertheless, don't actions speak louder than words?

Venezuela's official poverty figures dropped by 10% since HE took office. Rich are getting super rich and they only raise up 10% of their very large population?

This sounds very much like the Bush followers/clones. The U.S. is doing phenomenal!!! NO poverty here...

Anonymous said...

Third of recent buyers owe more than home's value: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - More than 30 percent of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last two years owe more on their mortgage than their house is currently worth, a housing market research company said on Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT

The housing market peaked in most U.S. markets in the last two years. Of home buyers in 2006, 39 percent of those with a median 10 percent down payment now have negative home equity similar to 30 percent of those who purchased in 2007, said online company Zillow in its quarterly home value report.

Overall, only 3 percent of those who purchased in 2003, and less than 1 percent of all homes in the United States regardless of when they were purchased, have negative equity.

At the same time, U.S. home prices fell 3 percent last year from 2006. Condos and single-family residence values dropped 7.4 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, the report said.

Nationwide in last three months of 2007, all home types fell 3.3 percent from the third quarter and 3 percent year-over-year.

"With consecutive declines over the past five quarters, we haven't seen the housing market bottom yet, and it may very well get worse before things get better," said Stan Humphries, Zillow vice president of data and analytics.

"Even many markets that have been largely insulated from recent declines, like some in the Pacific Northwest, reported notable value declines in the fourth quarter," he added.

Home values overall fell in the fourth quarter of 2007, to around $224,890, while condominiums posted the largest year-over-year drop, down 7.4 percent to around $229,017.

The fourth-quarter Zillow report taps data for the nation and 125 metro markets, covering 67 million homes.

Anonymous said...

Market Ticker has important info regarding Fed and liquidity.



http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The Most Important Ticker You Will Read This Year

Really.

Last night one of the wonderful forum folks dug up a post from another blog who had in turn dug up a published Fed document that settled in no uncertain terms the entire "hyperinflation/deflation" debate.

Simply put, this debate is over.

The Fed has been aggressively draining the SOMA account, with the pace of that drainage stepping up precipitously since December.

Draining.

Not adding.

The whole report (in PDF format) can also be accessed.....

The "money graph" is right here:


Why?

You can think of the SOMA as the Primary Dealers (big banks) "margin" account. (This is not strictly accurate, but is close enough.)

Many market crooners and "technicians" have been stating that "The Fed is hyperinflating to bail out the economy."

The facts say otherwise.

This has profound investment implications.

If you are investing today on the premise that "The Fed has our backs", you're wrong.
If you are buying metals in the belief that The Fed is intentionally devaluing the dollar and hyperinflating the money supply, you're wrong.
If you think The Fed is intentionally being "the bagholder of last resort", monetizing bad debt, you're wrong.
If you think The Fed leads the market and sets rates, again, you're wrong. (Read the entire PDF - very carefully - you will find that The Fed is in fact following the market, and admits so!)
There simply is no more debate on any of these points, because we now have the actual data from the Horse's Mouth.

There are is no more "postulating" this or that, as we now have the facts, and they are what they are.

There is no bailout in process via monetization. Period.
There is no hyperinflation via "printing." Period.
The Fed does not "set" interest rates. The market does, and The Fed then does their damndest to deal with it. Period.
In fact, The Fed is actually taking down risk, as I have said repeatedly, and de-leveraging not only their own balance sheets but they are also forcibly taking down risk in the primary dealers - whether they like it or not!

Now we know - for a fact - why Citibank had to go to the Arabs for money at double-digit rates. Why the other money-center banks are issuing preferreds and other instruments with returns at more than double the interest coupon required to borrow through the primary Fed credit facility (whether it be the TAF or the Discount Window.)

We know know the facts of life:

Fact: The good collateral has all been pledged.
Fact: The margin credit supply has been decreased.
Fact: Risk capacity is being withdrawn actively by The Fed.
Fact: The money supply is deflating.
Get that all in your head and make sure it sticks, because if it is not the foundation of your investment thesis over the next several months, you are proceeding from an incorrect premise.

There is plenty of other news, but that's something for another time - and another ticker.

Recalibrate your thesis folks.

We are no longer dealing with postulates and hypotheses.

We are now dealing with facts.

posted by Genesis | 7:41 AM Links to this post

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
Market Ticker has important info regarding Fed and liquidity.
February 12, 2008 8:32 PM
========================

That was a great read. Thank you for posting it!

Small Hat said...

Did anyone else notice the poll results?

Close to the same percent voting for Obama as saying it is okay to walk away from your mortgage...

Okay, now you people scare me! No moral compass what so ever.

Is this what we are in for as a nation is Obama gets elected.

God help us all.

-- Small Hat

Anonymous said...

I guess the Fed may have to bail out the auto industry next.


GM reports biggest-ever automotive loss
Automaker also offering new round of buyouts to its workers

Feb. 12: General Motors’ CEO Rick Wagoner discusses the major U.S. automaker’s latest earnings results.

updated 56 minutes ago
DETROIT - For all the good in GM’s 2007 results — the near-record worldwide sales, the reduction in labor costs and in retiree health obligations — there is no getting around the $38.7 billion in red ink.

The largest annual loss in the history of the auto industry signals that even with a garage full of hot vehicles and a historic new labor contract, GM has little hope of making a profit again before 2010 as the weak U.S. economy and competition eat away at its gains.

GM reported the record-setting loss on Tuesday and promptly offered a new round of buyouts to 74,000 U.S. hourly workers in hopes of replacing some of them with lower-paid employees.

decaffeinated said...

Uh-oh. The Secretary of the Treasury drank Keith's kool-aid. Really. Hank Paulson said today (2/12/08) that with regard to subprime mortgages, "The worst is just beginning."

Afterthought said...

Good endorsement, Keith.

Hopefully one of its side-effects will be clearing your site of the racist troglodytes.

It doesn't matter how many illegals stormed the border, how many babies were aborted, how many heteros divorced, how many jobs were shipped overseas, or how many innocents were bombed, burned, and blinded for Bush's lies in the last 7 years; "Obama must be worse".

Yeah right.

Obama has no choice but to govern well because of the racists maniacs in America; and still they won't be grateful. I pray that he picks his VP wisely, because the assassins' bullets are everywhere.

The American people, and I am not excluding whites, far from it! The American people are bankrupt, not just fiscally and intellectually, but spiritually as well.

Princess Mononoke said...

"Troglodytes"
====================

Afterthought, I have not heard this word used by another person in such a long time.

Great choice to use for your description!

~ Cheers

Anonymous said...

Didn't Treasury Henry Paulson tried to make some kind of failed SIV superfund back in November, but Alwaleed and a group of investors from China have to come to the rescue.

Wasn't it around January that Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and the investors help Citigroup by raising $12.5 billion in convertible preferred securities.

Does Alwaleed still own 3.6 percent of Citigroup which make him Citigroup's largest individual shareholder,

Weren't that money going to Citigroup's SIV funds.

A structured investment vehicle (SIV) is a fund which borrows money by issuing short-term securities at low interest and then lends that money by buying long-term securities at higher interest, making a profit for investors from the difference.

SIVs are a type of structured credit product; they are usually from $1bn to $30bn in size and invest in a range of asset-backed securities, as well as some financial corporate bonds.

Anonymous said...

So what is up with Treasury Henry Paulson announcing 30-Day Freeze on Foreclosures.

Why 30 days. Why not 3 to 6 months.

What is the importance of 30 days.

Can these bank handle that kind of volume in 30 days.

http://www.startribune.com/
business/15571562.html

Mary Coffin, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage executive vice president of loan servicing.

"Our phones are ringing off the wall,"

The participants -- Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide Financial, J.P. Morgan Chase, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo -- pledged to mail further information to qualifying borrowers.

Anonymous said...

OT
Spielberg bows out of working as artistic advisor for the Chinese.

http://tinyurl.com/34wv5g


he accused China of not doing enough to pressure its ally Sudan to end the "continuing human suffering" in the troubled western Darfur region.

Sudan, with its vast oil reserves, sells some two-thirds of its oil to Beijing.
In turn, Beijing sells weapons to the Sudanese government and has defended Khartoum in the UN Security Council.

Anonymous said...

Unlike a CDO, an SIV has an open-ended (or evergreen) structure; it plans to stay in business indefinitely by buying new assets as the old ones mature.

So when Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and the investors recent SIV mature, and all of a sudden there were an over whelming amount of foreclosure were can they find the new investors dumb enough to pick up their SIV when they mature.

Aren’t those SIV that Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and the investors brought going to mature this quarter.

Does this quarter mean sometime around late March or early April.

How many days is that from now.

Just a little over 30 days round about wouldn't you say.

Anonymous said...

So what was that thing that Treasury Henry Paulson was trying to ask Congress to do.

Something to do with 30 days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=aI6LnkbB
JexQ&refer=home

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said today the plan isn't enough to curb the surge in foreclosures expected in the next few months.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>>What is the importance of 30 days. Can these bank handle that kind of volume in 30 days.
February 13, 2008 6:33 AM
=========================

It IS going to get so UUUUGLY and the 'PTB' have NO choice but to look. Inventory is growing exponentially.

If they didn't live in LaLa land high UP in the clouds away from the real issues, they could have been PREPARED for the onslaught. NOW they are in SEVERE panic mode.

Senator Obama said...

KEATING FIVE IS ON MY MIND

Anonymous said...

Another subtle and stealthy admission as to the state of the market by NAR:

Go to realtor.com and go to the “advanced search” function.

Scroll down to the bottom of the advance search GUI.

Under financial options they now include the following:

Lease Option (i.e. rent to own); and

Trade considered.

They still refuse to update the # of homes they are searching from “over 3 million” to “over 4 million” (at least it no longer “over 2 million”) but it looks like the market trends are still forcing them to make some adjustments.

I think someone at NAR has a brain and realized that by saying over 3 million it would include any number over 3 million to include a # over 4 million so they decided there was no need to continue to change that little blurb when you initiated their search engine.

Anonymous said...

Today's Headline at CNBC:

Rise in Retail Sales Eases Worries About Recession

An unexpected rise in January retail sales fired up hopes the U.S. economy might skirt recession despite the pressure on consumers.

Pressure? What pressure? Apparently the new Amex Clear Cards have solved the problem for the tapped out:

The Credit Card with No Fees of Any Kind

and... with Ben Bernanke telling Congress yesterday that the housing crunch will be winding down at the end of this year it is looking like we have hit bottom. Now is the time to buy.

Anonymous said...

Hey HP'ers, consumer spending data came out today. And the consumer is continuing to spend. So all of this big housing doom/depression that you folks are wishing for won't happen.

thomas jefferson said...

NAHB takes its congressional contributions and goes home in a huff!
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1227547320080212?ref=patrick.net&rpc=92

Anonymous said...

You home is not your nest egg:
http://tinyurl.com/3ah2sv

MSM media beginning to turn on real estate as a non investment.

Just the start of contrarian signs that buying real estate may make sense again sometime in the near future.

Anonymous said...

Lots of stock market negativity. Contrarian signal sign to buy?

http://tinyurl.com/2nl8lg

Anonymous said...

Must see T.V.!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23028700/site/14081545/

See how debt is created! Best of all a segment features real estate tycoon wannabes.

Anonymous said...

I work for a large building materials hauler on the East Coast. We are suddenly getting extremely busy hauling all types of building materials. We have not seen this volume since 3rd qtr 2006. Maybe the tide is turning??

Anonymous said...

How much mortgage debt needs to be written off? Best guesses are 2 Trillion to 3.5 Trillion.

Not Billions folks.

Trillions.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=650329974

Anonymous said...

We went over a small waterfall and now, a bit bruised and battered, no one really knows what is next. Will we have a leisurely trip down the river or are we headed for Niagra Falls?

The economy was laying in the street with it's guts hanging out. Bernanke and Paulson throw a sheet over the mess and tell us everything is O.K.

Something isn't right. That's what is on my mind.

Anonymous said...

"We have not seen this volume since 3rd qtr 2006. Maybe the tide is turning??"


No, the tide is not turning. It is just a bunch of dumb-ass builders who think that they can "build and buyers will come". The only problem is that they are still holding onto houses from last year. You're just seeing the last seeds of greed being sown by these builders looking for the "good old days" when people could get a "fog-loan" (if they could fog a mirror with their breath, then they got a loan). Those days are gone, but some builders live in the past. They just keep their mindless chatter about "I think I can; I think I can". Better enjoy the hauls before the banks start cutting the draws to these fairyland builders. When that happens these fairyland builders will then be saying to their sub-contractors: "The check's in the mail. I mailed it last month."

Anonymous said...

Japanese annual wholesale inflation hit a 27-year high of 3 percent in January due to rising oil and other raw material costs

Economists expect the rising wholesale inflation to push up the core consumer price index to 1.0 percent in annual terms in coming months.

The pace of rises in wholesale prices in comparison with a year ago has been picking up in recent months and putting upward pressure on consumer prices

Japan's annual core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh fruit, vegetable and fish prices but includes oil products, hit a decade-high 0.8 percent in December, due largely to surging oil and other commodity prices.

Anonymous said...

The Bank of England dampened hopes of a series of interest rate cuts as the Governor hammered home his determination to keep to the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.

The central bank's quarterly Inflation Report yesterday predicted inflation clearly above target in two years if rates fall in line with market expectations to 4.5 per cent this year.

The pound climbed to a two-week high against the euro after the Bank of England raised its inflation forecast, prompting traders to pare bets on interest-rate cuts.

Anonymous said...

ECB's Garganas-2008 inflation seen higher than expected

Dow Jones said the Greek central bank governor also declined to rule out a further rise in interest rates, saying: "I cannot say whether interest rates have peaked, we don't follow a predetermined policy."

"For 2008 as a whole, I believe that inflation will be higher on a year-on-year basis than was expected in the latter part of last year," he said in the interview

Anonymous said...

China needs to raise interest rates to curb inflation and its yuan currency should rise in a "gradual, controllable" manner, an adviser to the central bank said in remarks published on Thursday.

Fan Gang, an adviser to the People's Bank of China, told the official People's Daily in an interview that U.S. stimulus ecoonomic policies would increase pressure on the yuan to rise and may boost hot money inflows into China.

Anonymous said...

The subprime virus has mutated. It has now infected the municipal bond market.

The same issues that roiled the asset-backed commercial paper market in the autumn are cropping up again.

Liquidity risk turns out to be a bigger problem than credit-focused investors had reckoned with. And liquidity risk can be fatal.

Look at what happened to structured investment vehicles, a market that shrivelled away.

Municipal issuers tap the capital markets in several ways and all of them now look under varying degrees of stress.

Auction rate securities, a $330bn market according to JPMorgan Chase, have coupons that reset periodically at auctions.

Now a few are failing, in part because of jitters around the insurers that support the credit ratings of municipal debt.

There has to be a good chance that this type of funding vehicle, like SIVs, will lose its raison d’ĂȘtre.

Tyrone said...

Think it's not a good time to buy? Think Again!

"It's the best time to buy in the Bluegrass (Kentucky)."

BWAHAHAHA

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Here's the handoff:

Depression risk might force U.S. to buy assets


Now take this ball and run with it!

BuyerWillEPB

Anonymous said...

I haven't got the patience to see if anyone else has posted this, but it's the PERFECT youtube for this site.

http://www.youtube.com/v/dr3qPRAAnOg&rel

Anonymous said...

Depression risk might force U.S. to buy assets
http://tinyurl.com/32jwap

area 51 said...

Stunning and Staggering losses in San Diego County.

Am I reading this right?

43% of resale homes were in foreclosure or default.

Almost 50% were sold at a loss to their original price.

And we haven't even begun seeing resets for the latest ARMs taken out in 2005-2007, the height of the mania.

I see armageddon around the corner. I think you may see 50-75% off prices or even more in some markets. The real bloodbath hasn't even begun.

What idiot (HEY Blowfly, holla if ya hear me!) in their right mind would even dream of trying to catch a multi-hundred-thousand dollar falling knife?

http://tinyurl.com/yrzp7d

Anonymous said...

GOLD TO DA MOON ALICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

New York State bonds auction off at payout yeilds of 20 percent interest. that 500,000 dollar house in addition to all expenses costing 100,000 a year in lost oppurtunity and thats not counting the costs of keeping or buying it? Time to buy stocks contrarian?

Anonymous said...

those were port authority aka transportation bonds???? infrastructures?, toll booths?

Anonymous said...

does anyone know the words to the song "allelula, my ship has come in, start raising chickens in the yard, schizoid bastard" oops aint no such thing and its religious overtone is racist........

Anonymous said...

i think i prefered the depression era "happy days are here again" song....

Anonymous said...

yeah ...ny transportation bonds that start shipping prefab world trade centers whena mere 20,000 of them could house half the worlds population as rich peoples vacation houses

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