Schiff nailed the housing bubble, credit crisis and crash, and is a HP hero no matter what.
But I think we need to admit now that that his prescription of foreign currencies, foreign stocks and commodities is in a world of hurt today, as all three have now completely collapsed.
As of today, except for US dollars (and yen), there was no safe haven. Not commodities. Not foreign stocks. Not Euros. Not gold. Not oil. Nothing.
I think Schiff's prescription may still come out on top, as I have zero confidence in the US dollar.
But this selloff in foreign stocks, commodities and foreign currencies is brutal, as deflation takes hold.
Inflation then deflation then inflation?
October 28, 2008
Commodities have completely crashed and the US dollar is becoming the strongest currency in the world. Was Peter Schiff wrong, or will he be right?
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The USD will be a safe haven until Treasury auctions fail and we have to start monetizing our own debt. Then it's physical gold to the friggin MOON.
Might be a year from now, but if Denninger is right, it might be within the next few weeks.
How many years were you wrong about the housing bubble, Keith?
I think you're getting ahead of yourself buddy boy.
Have you read Schiff's book?
Uh, last anon, welcome to the blog, but, uh, I think most people would say I nailed the housing bubble.
And I read Schiff's book three years ago, and invested based on it for a long time. He's truly a HP hero.
But as commodities collapsed, I got out. As foreign currencies collapsed, I got out.
Schiff may be proven right over time when it comes to commodities, foreign stocks and the death of the dollar. I'd bet on it. But for now, when foreign stocks are down 80%+, when commodities are down 60%+, and when currencies like the Aussie dollar, the Icelandic Krona, the Euro and the Pound are all being destroyed (against the dollar), Schiff's prescription for surviving the crash is crashing.
Even Schiff would admit that.
From what I read on the internets, it looks like the foreign markets crashing and dollar strengthening comes from the American hedge funds de-leveraging by selling foreign stocks, which in turn is a part of liquidity crisis in the US. The stocks are sold for local currency, which then has to be exchanged for dollars to be transferred to the US. That's where the high demand for dollars comes from, which drives the dollar up. Apparently the same happens to Japanese hedge funds invested in Asian emerging markets. I am not really sure if this explanation is true, but it looks very suspicious how the markets crashed simultaneously all over the world. By the way, the Japanese stock index is trading below its book value.
When this sell-off finally unwinds to the end, the next step might be foreign investors (and governments) selling American bonds and treasurys. Then the dollar will crash hard.
Here's another blast from the past. They call it right, but the site hasn't been updated in years:
http://pricedoutforever.com/
Talked to Euro Pacific a few weeks ago. They *won't tell you* what their returns are until you commit funds. Truly odd conversation.
Keith,
Crash Proof didn't come out until February 2007, so not sure how that's possible.
Lots of other books were available many years before that, such as "The coming collapse of the dollar and how to profit from it" - 2004
I stand corrected. I believe I first read Crash Proof in Feb or Mar 2007 after I was sent a copy.
Great book. Highly recommended. It was right about everything.
And then it wasn't.
Commodities have completely crashed. Foreign stocks have crashed. The Euro, the Pound, the Forint, the Ruble, the Krona, you name it - they're crashing.
Even Schiff has to be scratching his head. I've gotta believe he's more shocked than anyone how bad it's gotten for foreign stocks, commodities and foreign currencies.
He'll likely be proven right over time, after the dollar crashes. But right now, it's crazy out there.
Mish (at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ ) has been calling deflation (rather than inflation) for quite a while now. The rise of the dollar will continue partially because other currencies are in even worse shape. He doesn't rule out the possibility of hyperinflation somewhere down the road, though, but not yet.
As the one person posted previously when the u s of good ole is "the" place to put your funds and then all of a sudden these same investment houses fund the existance of these third world (Ukraine)/quasi first rate countries ((Iceland) I would love to live there in its hey day) But the people that created the scheme are crashing and just like everything else it was monetized and securitized to the hilt and you are seeing massive redemtions towards dollars since that is what is owed to others and they reinvested it for others to use in the future.
Being short on stocks is dangerous as some hedge funds learned yesterday for a 15 Billion education fee when VW stocks experienced a short squeeze.
The easy money in the US, emerging markets (including parts of Europe) and the Yen carry trade have established huge dislocations which are now unwound in a somewhat disorderly fashion. Whether the system becomes unstable or not depends on whether the stabilization measures taken now are worse that the previous mess. At the moment it looks to me like the liquidity injections even if they are now measured in Trillions are a fraction of the accumulated dislocations over the years.
The challege for policy makers will be that both the unwind and the stabilization is painful and costly. It will be tempting to inject more painkiller to get the population body to feel all is well again.
I have a question for HPers who know more than I do.
Istn't the dollar getting too strong even more of another nail in the coffin for American dominance?
I mean if the Euro crashes and the pound becomes worthless against the dollar. Doesn't that make these countries more attractive to industry and exports i.e. like low wage countries to invest in?
Where does that leave the US if the dollar is too strong. Who will want to put up factories in the US?
Where will that put the US worker?
Especially with the shoddy infrastructure that a lot of the USA has.
Europe currently has much better infrastructure in comparison to the US. I know that is a blanket statement and covers too much geographic area to truly compare but much of Europe has an enormously better electricity grid, better trained workers (not IT guys and software geeks but machinists, machine builders, assembly and robotics specialists etc.), especially in Germany and an established rail system for moving goods and people.
What am I missing other than the obvious fact that everybody loves America and despite the shoddy infrastructure, and the thinly veiled hatred growing in the ranks of the populace (with one half ready to kill the other half i.e. libs vs. conservatives) and vice versa, America could essentially live off it's own land and production.
Does it really need to import goods and foreign oil to continue to operate?
Couldn't America just shrug and do everything itself?
What am I missing
Schiff's advice seems to be that one should invest in companies that either own or produce commodities in non-dollar countries.
Commodities, because it's an item that cannot be devalued, and non-US currency because that will hold up better than the $.
I agree with you Keith that (for now, at least) Schiff called this one wrong on both counts.
The commodities market has collapsed due to demand destruction. I dunno about you, but I'm not seeing very many Hummers and Viking ranges moving these days - so commodity demand is collapsing. Also not many roofers and plumbers driving to work to build houses, so no crude oil demand either. No surprises on the commodities front for me.
On the $ vs. all other currencies I have been more surprised. I (and everyone else I suppose) was unaware that the Euro banks were in worse shape than their US counterparts. That pretty much blew the Euro out of the water as an alternative reserve currency. The Yen/Yuan aren't ready for prime time as those economies are totally dependent on the US anyway for exports.
I would say though that *right now* might be a good time to use Schiff's techniques to profit from the economic collapse. There is value in the commodities and the strong dollar now allows you to get quite a lot more than earlier.
Give it just a bit more time. I think the Dollar collapse is not far off. Days, weeks at most months. When this ship turns around, it's not coming back. The fundamentals of the US economy are shot.
Gold looks pretty good in £ to me. Just try buying the physical and tell me there is a sell-off.
I am confident Schiff will be proved right for the reasons already posted by others. His message is a long term strategy not a short term trading angle. Don't call it yet - we are a very long way from the end of this crisis.
The dollar rose far too fast to be a "real" fundamental long term rally. This is most definitely a very violent short term correction.
I expect the dollar to top out at the same time that the dow, oil, and gold all bottom out.
Like they say even a broken clock is right twice a day. Every bearish pundit the first thing I look for is since when. I was bearish in 05-06 but the market rallied 40% and it is not good getting to the party early. Some of these guys have been bearish since the 90's
As of today, except for US dollars, there was no safe haven. Not commodities. Not foreign stocks. Not Euros. Not gold. Not oil. Nothing.
Bzzzz.. Wrong! You haven't looked at the yen chart lately have you?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDJPY=X&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The poor shall always be with us. In fact, the ranks are swelling.
Who is going to buy all these surplus Dollars after the remaining hedge-funds and their carry-trade schemes plus fully collapsed?
Make no mistake the USD and its siblings are toast.
PS:
When are you lousy colonists pay back your outstanding debt?
IF Schiff is right, then today is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Buy commodities
Buy foreign stocks
Short the US dollar and T-bills
But if he is wrong, and you continue to do what he recommends, you could lose everything.
Time will tell.
I believe he'll be right, in the long run. But it may take years to recover from the losses his prescription just took.
I really don't know what to think.
Although the dollar's rise looks like a bubble to me.
The USD rally is phony. Schiff may be wrong at this exact moment, but in a year everyone will wish they have listened as the dollar crashes to even more historic lows.
It is tempting to load up the truck and buy foreign stocks, commodities and short the dollar and t-bills
Someone talk me out of it.
"
I believe he'll be right, in the long run. But it may take years to recover from the losses his prescription just took."
Maybe. But its already taking years to recover if you didn't follow his advice, so you're already ahead of the game.
With all the different strategies and bets for and against the dollar, pound, euro, *gold*, and other currencies.
Maybe one should consider that the answer is none of the above.
These are indeed unchartered waters and as much as one would like to proove or disprove certain theories. Everything is in flux now. Like the melting of a giant ice sheet which is breaking up in to thousands of pieces.
Not one person can say they stand on solid ground.
They could all go under, something completely different could emerge or we could all be plunged darkness for at least 12 months.
I mean how long can we all run around in panic before something logical will assume the role of a currency?
Is it a long time or a short time to wait for a solution?
I guess that depends on your particular country's ability to enstill faith in the newly minted currency with the people.
In that case, the US will probably emerge as the leading currency again.
It's not fair but it's probably closer to the truth than what Peter Schiff has been predicting.
War is not fair. Just ask the Iraqis. Life is not fair just ask the soldiers. Markets are not fair just look at your statement.
The only possible way for another fiat currency to have more value then the US Greenback and Japanese Yen, would be if ‘Things are different this time’
Fellow HPers (this issue is a blind spot for Keith):
‘Things are NEVER different this time’
just like with all the bubbles in the past.
It can not possibly be that the same failed countries peoples and cultures of all of history have now totally changed.
It is soo obvious, (as clear as we all here knew that housing cannot possibly continue going up in price in 2006)
Just look at Dubai and say ‘Things are different this time’ with a straight face.
As much as we and Peter Schiff are dissatisfied with the US
Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time before that house of cards collapse.
logic and common sense says = Europe will crash!
Yen & dollar are up 'cos that's the currencies people borrowed to make leveraged plays. Now the margin calls are coming in and demand for dollar and yen goes up to settle debts. It will go on for a while but it has to stop eventually. I would stay away from all paper currencies.
There're 2 possible scenarios, a full scale depression 1929 style that will last 10+ years or a long recession.
In a depression we're screwed six or half dozen the other. Stock up on guns, ammo, gold, vodka and canned goods.
If you believe that we will rebound within 2 or 3 years (like I do) then stocks and commodities are at bargain prices right now.
I wouldn't load up all in one day, buy some today, some next week, etc.
If Schiff ISN'T right, the United States has truly discovered the path to nirvana: print money with abandon and watch its value increase.
If this is really the way rational markets work, Obama might want to seriously consider a "$1 million stimulus check" for every American.
We'll all be rich!
long termer - go read the blog. I've been saying Europe will crash even worse than the US
1) common currency but uncommon policy response
2) bigger bubble than the US
3) declining and aging population
4) spoiled workforce
5) uncompetitive wages
6) corruption and incompetence in government (even worse than USA)
I could go on...
It's a tinderbox over here
if you were told you must hold one and only one currency, what would it be?
I think for a lot of people it would be the dollar. america has high value in natural resources, food production capability, and general stability.
Commodities have completely crashed. Foreign stocks have crashed. The Euro, the Pound, the Forint, the Ruble, the Krona, you name it - they're crashing.
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well, the guy can be wrong once in a while.
like I posted before, if the SHTF (trade grinds to a halt, international banking stops, etc), the dollar has the most intrinsic value behind it (raw resources, food, government stability, etc).
First, I think that right now, the US dollar probably is the strongest currency in the world. After all, the emerging markets will probably continue to nationalize foreign assets, and the euro nations will be intimidated by the Russian bear. (And with Obama in power, the US ain't gonna be pulling their chestnuts out of the fire this time.) Japan and China are export dependent, and Japan in particular, is not going to be doing that well with a US turned protectionist. It is a small island, and like Europe, is close to a dangerous neighbor. Having said, that, I don't think the dollar has actual strength as opposed to mere strength relative to other currencies. Once the other countries can no longer afford to buy our debt - probably next year - we will have hyperinflation. (Of course, by then we'll have hyperinflation elsewhere, as well, as the other countries sell our paper to reclaim their own. Thing is, everybody ran their printing presses.) Eventually, everybody will shut down the printing presses and come out with a new currency - possibly a world currency or basket of world currencies like the Amero - and things will stabilize, but the in between portion will be nasty. But as long as "commodities" or "gold" are actually pieces of paper, they mean as little as dollars and yen. If you are talking about buckets of wheat in your basement, then yeah, "commodities" will be very helpful during the nasty in between period.
Keith,
" bigger bubble than the US"
But limited to few select countries, Britain, Ireland, Spain & Netherlands, but probably enough to push the entire mess over the edge.
On the upside some European countries (Germany, Sweden, Poland, Czech) still manufacture real goods, not just toxic debt & hot air. The Euro might fail due to the imbalances within the various countries.
Yoski - that is incorrect. I personally observed massive housing bubbles in:
croatia
france
bulgaria
hungary
ireland
uk
spain
slovakia
netherlands
and have read about massive property speculation (led by the brits) in estonia, latvia, lithuania and portugal.
The entire continent is going to unwind. The hot brit money was everywhere.
On the $ vs. all other currencies I have been more surprised. I (and everyone else I suppose) was unaware that the Euro banks were in worse shape than their US counterparts.
-----------------------------------
wasn't the first major bank failure earlier this year in the UK? that should have been a clue, it was for me.
Regardless of how smart or dumb the guy is, hasn't anyone noticed that he probably has a huge conflict of interest when it comes to recommending US investments vs overseas investment? Look at the name of his company for christ's sake. What do you THINK he is going to say about the dollar?
The commodities market has collapsed due to demand destruction.
_________________________
I sell commodities OTC by the barge full and what is going on is there is a huge rush to lock in 12 and 24 month contracts for delivery because everything is SUCH a good deal.
I am on the front lines and business is booming.
The feeling is buy now and hurry, because after the election, to the moon with the stuff.
Just sayin.
FMW
Disclaimer: not investmenst advise
Peter's beatdowns of the Faux shills is the stuff of legends.I think he missed on one account...as screwed up as the US is, other countries can be just as bad, if not worse. jmho
Keith,
"The entire continent is going to unwind. The hot brit money was everywhere"
I wonder how much it will hurt Bulgaria, Slovakia, etc. versus how much it will hurt Britain. I would guess that it will hurt the people/banks/economy the made the stupid loans more than it will hurt the localities where the property was actually purchased.
The problems in Ireland, Spain and Netherlands are more home cooked, ie. their own banks financed much of the speculation.
Keeping your job and paying down debt are key to survival these days. I got some funny money in my 401K I use to speculate.
Europe is screwed.
Asia and/or the middle east (as in Dubai not Iraq) are probably not. Sure they are having problems now, but the when they finally wake up to the fact that the US really doesn't matter - it was consuming without producing enough to cover it and hence a net drain on the rest of the world - they should boom.
With a lot of pain in the middle - exacerbated by the fact that they all own so much US debt.
This drop makes a lot of sense, asset prices are deflating as money vanishes into thin air, there was lots of leverage which is being unwound and pushing the price of everything down (there are obvious babies going out with the bathwater - the question from an investing point of view is how much further will go down), people are on the whole idiots who thought the US economy was doing just fine a year ago and US treasuries (and dollars) are where you went for safety in the past and hence where they go now.
I might be wrong, since I can't read minds. But I think Schiff's thesis was that the US is toast and the rest of the world will decouple and boom. There's an implied drop in global markets before they decouple.
The reason Schiff has advocated getting out "now" for so long is not because he didn't expect foreign markets to drop before they decoupled but because the risk that the US dollar collapses was too great.
Turns out it didn't, and waiting has ended up the better option. Of course the US dollar could still collapse and Schiff's fear is it happens overnight so getting out anytime is good even if you experience heavy losses in the short term.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE49N1XX20081024
http://tinyurl.com/65scgq
If China follows through on words like those, the US dollar seriously could collapse while Americans are asleep one Sunday night.
mrbill,
It's not a conflict of interest - it's how you would expect it to be.
If I run and investment company and I think that investing in Icelandic króna is the greatest thing to do, then you would expect my company to recommend that. That doesn't mean I have a conflict of interest that means I'm principled enough to recommend what I actually believe.
Note, it doesn't mean I'm right.
If of course I believe the opposite of what I recommend, then we have a problem...
If he worked for the euro pacific that might be a conflict of interest. But since he owns it, if he thought the US was the best place to invest then that's what euro pacific would be investing in.
It can't be any other way, it would make no sense for him to recommend doing something other than euro pacific does - that would be hypocritical. So i guess if that's your definition of a conflict of interest then you have to choose an investment advisor to either have a conflict of interest or to be a hypocrite.
I know which I'd choose.
Anon, you speak as if Peter Schiff founded Euro Pacific and created the company philosophy to invest overseas. No, he came on board in 1996, 16 years after the company was founded. It's not like he had the option to change the whole course of the company and change the name to "US Capital" if he felt that would serve people better. His job is to convice people to invest with his company, which means overseas investments. Of course there is a conflict of interest.
I guess I should expect such a response on a blog where so many seem to think that real estate agents should be out there convincing people not to buy homes. Selling houses is their job, they are bound to the seller to sell the house for the highest proce possible. Anyone who thinks they should act differently is in a delusion. Anyone who relies on a seller's RE agent for personal financial advise is a fool who deserves whatever happens to them. Of course the seller's agent is going to talk up the value of the homes they are selling. Grow up people.
Of course mortgage fraud is a different matter and should be punished.
Schiff is more long term.
That is, his point is that once foreign countries wake up to the fact that the US has no money, they will stop loaning it money, the US goes bankrupt and the dollar collapses. The trick, however, is to first get out of dollars without causing alarm and then to teach their own people (who have money) to become western type consumers such that the vast majority of their production is consumed internally, rather than exported.
It will take time, but it will happen.
The US is the new England
I'm with the one or two thinking people on this blog - Schiff said buy and then started selling.
sorry keith but you should leave the complicated stuff to these guys...
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=57193#post57193
This is supposedly a tempoary bump, due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The dollar will crash eventually.
"Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time before that house of cards collapse."
I disagree. The quality of life there is so much higher in many respects.
Of course this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. That is exactly when you should buy -- when panic sends everyone else running for the exits. But then again, this time, it may take a lifetime to realize some profit.
Commodities run in a 20 years cycle, so keep that in mind if you want to buy cheap: you have a long wait ahead. Stocks have not made a dime in ten years (Dow at 1998 prices), and they also have a 20 year horizon. Choose accordingly.
I read Schiff's book and went to see him speak in person. I contemplated investing with Schiff, but my gut told me not to. I found Roubini. I also found Mish. They made sense to me. I pulled my $$$ out of the market on 1-2-08.
Anyone who invested with Schiff has probably lost big. His predictions are not panning out right now. I think they will at a later point after we wrap up this ugly bout of deflation.
Inflation (free money era 2003 -2007), Deflation (now), Inflation (It's coming. Got gold?)
What HPers fail to understand is that they wished upon a great bubble bursting. That is where you failed! You will all go down too! Fools, this is what you get for wishing bad upon everyone else!
How about those ETF's?
Keith wrote :It is tempting to load up the truck and buy foreign stocks, commodities and short the dollar and t-bills
Someone talk me out of it.
Can't. IF (when) the US dollar falls, then getting out before to another zone's assets that have already fallen down to the floor should protect you from the US based losses.
It's simply a matter of timing. But it something that MUST be done. And timed correctly.
In the words of Dirty Harry : Are you feeling lucky punk? Well, are you?!
Forget about gold ETF's or Gold stocks and the like. People are buying and hoarding U.S. gold coins. This is gold you can bang on a table. Not paper gold sold with a promise. $20.00 double eagles are around $200.00 over spot. a few years ago they sold at around $20.00 over spot. U.S. Mint is limiting new gold coin production also. Similar situation with silver coins.
This fact is seldom seen in the headlines!
Gold $ is holding up quit well if you use this measure. After all aren't us gold coins what the majority / masses can actually "trust" and take comfort in owning in times like this. Look back in history.
Not paper!!!
Schiff is right in the long term, but so is Buffett. That's like predicting that everyone is dead in the long term...it's true but not useful, because the timing is what's important.
My worthless opinion: we've just seen the bottom of gold at 680. No moon rocket, though, until we start monetizing...it'll probably stay in the 700s until that happens.
You can get 400 oz gold bars and 1000 oz silver bars just about at spot. The premium for gold and silver coins is because the small investors who are buying them can't afford to play with the big boys.
GLD alone has 750 TONS of gold, and I guarantee it's not in friggin Krugerrands.
"Inflation then deflation then inflation?"
Commodities bubble, then deflation, then inflation.
derivs said....
Some of these guys have been bearish since the 90's
___________________________________
Newsflash
The Dow is now trading at the same range it was trading at in 1998 (that would be the 90s). If you factor in 3% inflation, the dow is 34% LOWER than it was in 1998.
The fact is this market can go lower, much lower.
That means those bearish guys are right, it just took a while.
Jymkata
"The fundamentals of the US economy are shot."
this is where I disagree and think that John McCain is tell the truth since America has the courage to make hard economic transitions;
that's something that socialist countries refuse to do.
personally, I think we won, economically, in Iraq and our military technology is only growing stronger.
Moreover, Sigmond Freud once wrote that "Jews have always had the edge since they're militant although they've had their ups and downs; howerver, cultures who have sided with them have benefited."
So you can't count out the US.
The problem is that Schiff isn't necessarily wrong since prices are controlled and the banks can take dollars away by letting the price of Gold go up so it crash and the bankers can buy it back for nothing.
So I think it's a game.
I personally think that "trickle down economics" is a historical driving force since we all inherit the fruits of our forefathers' efforts and America, for better or worse, stood behind globalization and I think that the economic result of that is beyond imagination.
For example, the kind of collaborations I've seen on the internet are beyond marvelous.
The housing crash, and the like, seem like circus acts which merely entertain the peons.
Of course, I wish that "resource extraction" could be environmentally friendly; it's not so perhaps one day we'll all pay! until then, materialism will rule.
Keith,
How many times do I have to keep telling you dude. Schiff and Roubini are both smart guys, no doubt, but they enjoy the camera too much. You know that. Schiff had it wrong years ago, now he is changing his tune, saying that student costs will drop. Wasn't he saying 1 and a half ago that americans wouldn't be able to afford anything, because everything would go through the roof with hyperinflation. Schiff, keep your stance, and stop copying Mish.
I have never seen Mish on camera though. To me, he is the greatest economist there is. He predicted that the dollar and Yen would strengthen against all currencies. He is not a total long term bull on the dollar, but for now, it's a hold.
Mish did say that deflation can happen in a few different ways including the next ones. Everything goes down, except gold. Everything goes down, including gold.
I think it is becoming clear that when money is being hoarded, investors are even willing to dump gold, to get their hands into cash. Period. I say gold and any other commodities continue to take beatings. Hell, everything is coming down, except the dollar and the yen.
Dny
What Schiff didn't get - was that this is a global credit bubble - not just a US Housing/Credit card bubble. In the US, easy credit caused the housing bubble. In Europe - for some countries -it caused a housing bubble - see Spain. For most, though, they invested in emerging markets and caused a emerging markets bubble. they ain't getting paid back. They are reaping the whirlwind.
It is ironic that US bankers were scared to death of emerging market loans (although not for HELOCs) while Europe ate them up like candy. Just too funny.
EU wants to blame US - but the chickens are coming home to roost on all those dodgy loans they made to emerging markets.
This is what Schiff missed. And yes, Keith, I like him - he is a hero. But he missed this and this why many EuroPac customers are getting killed.
And I still say "someone is gonna want off the bus"..... and that is where it gets interesting.
Keith,
I've read a few of your posts. See, life is kind of funny. People all over the world, including Russians on these same board, were blasting the US for being broke. Well, who's broke now????
The issue is people outside the states tend to look outside for blame. It is apparent that most countries around the world were far worst than us. And when the shit hits the fan, people run to buy treasuries.
Keith, if you kept your eyes close on treasuries, you would have known this was coming. Mish spelled it out on his blog. He was dead on, and he will continue to be dead on.
Dny
So what if the Dow hasn't moved in 10, 20, 30 or 100 years? Dividends is where it's at. Dividends and cashing out every so often to shift capital. International funds were obvious - I sold all mine a year ago, when everybody knew that's where you should be investing.
You chumps want to look at a chart that really means something, go look at gold at Kitco. I sold mine to you morons at $900/oz.
When you play with the Devil's money, you agree to play by his rules. Dancing with the Devil, not a pretty site, the majority of players on both sides of the bet will be losers. We are just harming each other by continuing to play with the Devil's money. The best move is not to play. Cash and canned goods, with a splash of zeroing out your debt seems to be your best option in this environment. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Stop gambeling, the odds are against you. Make money the old fashioned way, Earn It and save it. Timing the market in turbulent times will yield many losers. How the movie ends is still a mystery but one things for sure, it will not be pretty. Abolish the Federal Reserve! How many more times are we going to allow them to ruin our lives.
I don't know schiff, but these guys have been right all along. They predicted the housing crash and dollar rise back in 2003.
http://www.elliottwave.com/
In defense of Peter Schiff, he's always recommended buying solid foreign companies paying good *dividends*.
The problem with Peter was that he predicted interest rates would go up, and all his other investment decisions were based on that premise. He had no clue how strong the influence of the powers that be would be on the monetary policy of the US. I, too, trusted his judgment, and lost quite a bit. I don't blame him - I thought, as he did, that the US would have to raise interest rates to attract capital. It never occured to either of us that the government would print to oblivion. These are exceptional times and anything is to be expected. Proceed cautiously.
long termer said:
"Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time before that house of cards collapse.
logic and common sense says = Europe will crash!"
What exactly do you mean by fake?
And what do you mean by crash?
By whose logic? And what is "common sense"?
Sorry to get so philosophical but really, there are beers in Europe older than the USA - Brewing culture that have been around for centuries. What's so fake about that?
The different peoples and cultures that have thrived and survived in Europe during times of peace and horrific wars make the USA appear to be a child in diapers by comparison.
I say that without meaning that Europe is "better" or that the "USA" is worse.
Just pointing out the simple fact that Europe is not "fake" as you seem to put it.
If Europe were "fake" it would look more like Las Vegas or some of the housing developments in California, Nevada, Arizona or your avearge strip mall in nowheresvill usa. i.e. your house of cards.
Those places will be tumbleweed cities full of scraggly jackrabbits and skinny coyotes before Europe collapes.
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