tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post5631800786750887608..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: Commodities have completely crashed and the US dollar is becoming the strongest currency in the world. Was Peter Schiff wrong, or will he be right?bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-48154304815514871452008-10-30T09:45:00.000+00:002008-10-30T09:45:00.000+00:00long termer said:"Europe is fake; it is just a mat...long termer said:<BR/><BR/>"Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time before that house of cards collapse.<BR/><BR/>logic and common sense says = Europe will crash!"<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>What exactly do you mean by fake?<BR/>And what do you mean by crash?<BR/>By whose logic? And what is "common sense"?<BR/><BR/>Sorry to get so philosophical but really, there are beers in Europe older than the USA - Brewing culture that have been around for centuries. What's so fake about that?<BR/><BR/>The different peoples and cultures that have thrived and survived in Europe during times of peace and horrific wars make the USA appear to be a child in diapers by comparison.<BR/><BR/>I say that without meaning that Europe is "better" or that the "USA" is worse. <BR/><BR/>Just pointing out the simple fact that Europe is not "fake" as you seem to put it.<BR/><BR/>If Europe were "fake" it would look more like Las Vegas or some of the housing developments in California, Nevada, Arizona or your avearge strip mall in nowheresvill usa. i.e. your house of cards.<BR/><BR/>Those places will be tumbleweed cities full of scraggly jackrabbits and skinny coyotes before Europe collapes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68912680762735879602008-10-29T23:08:00.000+00:002008-10-29T23:08:00.000+00:00The problem with Peter was that he predicted inter...The problem with Peter was that he predicted interest rates would go up, and all his other investment decisions were based on that premise. He had no clue how strong the influence of the powers that be would be on the monetary policy of the US. I, too, trusted his judgment, and lost quite a bit. I don't blame him - I thought, as he did, that the US would have to raise interest rates to attract capital. It never occured to either of us that the government would print to oblivion. These are exceptional times and anything is to be expected. Proceed cautiously.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-48645167767011300562008-10-29T08:19:00.000+00:002008-10-29T08:19:00.000+00:00In defense of Peter Schiff, he's always recommende...In defense of Peter Schiff, he's always recommended buying solid foreign companies paying good *dividends*.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-52274829690791483172008-10-29T05:35:00.000+00:002008-10-29T05:35:00.000+00:00I don't know schiff, but these guys have been righ...I don't know schiff, but these guys have been right all along. They predicted the housing crash and dollar rise back in 2003.<BR/><BR/>http://www.elliottwave.com/Feralandroidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17525704508930608248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-56781719652077635262008-10-29T03:07:00.000+00:002008-10-29T03:07:00.000+00:00When you play with the Devil's money, you agree to...When you play with the Devil's money, you agree to play by his rules. Dancing with the Devil, not a pretty site, the majority of players on both sides of the bet will be losers. We are just harming each other by continuing to play with the Devil's money. The best move is not to play. Cash and canned goods, with a splash of zeroing out your debt seems to be your best option in this environment. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Stop gambeling, the odds are against you. Make money the old fashioned way, Earn It and save it. Timing the market in turbulent times will yield many losers. How the movie ends is still a mystery but one things for sure, it will not be pretty. Abolish the Federal Reserve! How many more times are we going to allow them to ruin our lives.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68329687568459561602008-10-29T02:16:00.000+00:002008-10-29T02:16:00.000+00:00So what if the Dow hasn't moved in 10, 20, 30 or 1...So what if the Dow hasn't moved in 10, 20, 30 or 100 years? Dividends is where it's at. Dividends and cashing out every so often to shift capital. International funds were obvious - I sold all mine a year ago, when everybody knew that's where you should be investing.<BR/><BR/>You chumps want to look at a chart that really means something, go look at gold at Kitco. I sold mine to you morons at $900/oz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-211428529422718612008-10-29T02:04:00.000+00:002008-10-29T02:04:00.000+00:00Keith,I've read a few of your posts. See, life is ...Keith,<BR/><BR/>I've read a few of your posts. See, life is kind of funny. People all over the world, including Russians on these same board, were blasting the US for being broke. Well, who's broke now????<BR/><BR/>The issue is people outside the states tend to look outside for blame. It is apparent that most countries around the world were far worst than us. And when the shit hits the fan, people run to buy treasuries. <BR/><BR/>Keith, if you kept your eyes close on treasuries, you would have known this was coming. Mish spelled it out on his blog. He was dead on, and he will continue to be dead on.<BR/><BR/>DnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-56362726150313268542008-10-29T02:02:00.000+00:002008-10-29T02:02:00.000+00:00What Schiff didn't get - was that this is a global...What Schiff didn't get - was that this is a global credit bubble - not just a US Housing/Credit card bubble. In the US, easy credit caused the housing bubble. In Europe - for some countries -it caused a housing bubble - see Spain. For most, though, they invested in emerging markets and caused a emerging markets bubble. they ain't getting paid back. They are reaping the whirlwind.<BR/><BR/>It is ironic that US bankers were scared to death of emerging market loans (although not for HELOCs) while Europe ate them up like candy. Just too funny.<BR/><BR/>EU wants to blame US - but the chickens are coming home to roost on all those dodgy loans they made to emerging markets.<BR/><BR/>This is what Schiff missed. And yes, Keith, I like him - he is a hero. But he missed this and this why many EuroPac customers are getting killed.<BR/><BR/>And I still say "someone is gonna want off the bus"..... and that is where it gets interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-47759527842384199202008-10-29T02:00:00.000+00:002008-10-29T02:00:00.000+00:00Keith,How many times do I have to keep telling you...Keith,<BR/><BR/>How many times do I have to keep telling you dude. Schiff and Roubini are both smart guys, no doubt, but they enjoy the camera too much. You know that. Schiff had it wrong years ago, now he is changing his tune, saying that student costs will drop. Wasn't he saying 1 and a half ago that americans wouldn't be able to afford anything, because everything would go through the roof with hyperinflation. Schiff, keep your stance, and stop copying Mish.<BR/><BR/>I have never seen Mish on camera though. To me, he is the greatest economist there is. He predicted that the dollar and Yen would strengthen against all currencies. He is not a total long term bull on the dollar, but for now, it's a hold.<BR/><BR/>Mish did say that deflation can happen in a few different ways including the next ones. Everything goes down, except gold. Everything goes down, including gold.<BR/><BR/>I think it is becoming clear that when money is being hoarded, investors are even willing to dump gold, to get their hands into cash. Period. I say gold and any other commodities continue to take beatings. Hell, everything is coming down, except the dollar and the yen.<BR/><BR/>DnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82865428766990337462008-10-29T00:14:00.000+00:002008-10-29T00:14:00.000+00:00"The fundamentals of the US economy are shot."this..."<I>The fundamentals of the US economy are shot.</I>"<BR/><BR/>this is where I disagree and think that John McCain is tell the truth since America has the courage to make hard economic transitions;<BR/><BR/>that's something that socialist countries refuse to do. <BR/><BR/>personally, I think we won, economically, in Iraq and our military technology is only growing stronger.<BR/><BR/>Moreover, Sigmond Freud once wrote that "Jews have always had the edge since they're militant although they've had their ups and downs; howerver, cultures who have sided with them have benefited."<BR/><BR/>So you can't count out the US.<BR/><BR/>The problem is that Schiff isn't necessarily wrong since prices are controlled and the banks can take dollars away by letting the price of Gold go up so it crash and the bankers can buy it back for nothing.<BR/><BR/>So I think it's a game.<BR/><BR/>I personally think that "trickle down economics" is a historical driving force since we all inherit the fruits of our forefathers' efforts and America, for better or worse, stood behind globalization and I think that the economic result of that is beyond imagination.<BR/><BR/>For example, the kind of collaborations I've seen on the internet are beyond marvelous.<BR/><BR/>The housing crash, and the like, seem like circus acts which merely entertain the peons.<BR/><BR/>Of course, I wish that "resource extraction" could be environmentally friendly; it's not so perhaps one day we'll all pay! until then, materialism will rule.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68303856660098672942008-10-28T22:07:00.000+00:002008-10-28T22:07:00.000+00:00derivs said....Some of these guys have been bearis...derivs said....<BR/><BR/>Some of these guys have been bearish since the 90's<BR/><BR/>___________________________________<BR/><BR/>Newsflash<BR/><BR/>The Dow is now trading at the same range it was trading at in 1998 (that would be the 90s). If you factor in 3% inflation, the dow is 34% LOWER than it was in 1998.<BR/><BR/>The fact is this market can go lower, much lower.<BR/><BR/>That means those bearish guys are right, it just took a while.<BR/><BR/>JymkataAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64243513605900313252008-10-28T21:39:00.000+00:002008-10-28T21:39:00.000+00:00"Inflation then deflation then inflation?"Commodit..."Inflation then deflation then inflation?"<BR/><BR/>Commodities bubble, then deflation, then inflation.Refuse to buy overpricedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04529128673944692315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-51655801429288950432008-10-28T20:57:00.000+00:002008-10-28T20:57:00.000+00:00Schiff is right in the long term, but so is Buffet...Schiff is right in the long term, but so is Buffett. That's like predicting that everyone is dead in the long term...it's true but not useful, because the timing is what's important.<BR/><BR/>My worthless opinion: we've just seen the bottom of gold at 680. No moon rocket, though, until we start monetizing...it'll probably stay in the 700s until that happens.<BR/><BR/>You can get 400 oz gold bars and 1000 oz silver bars just about at spot. The premium for gold and silver coins is because the small investors who are buying them can't afford to play with the big boys. <BR/><BR/>GLD alone has 750 TONS of gold, and I guarantee it's not in friggin Krugerrands.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-14372144765585494212008-10-28T19:17:00.000+00:002008-10-28T19:17:00.000+00:00Forget about gold ETF's or Gold stocks and the lik...Forget about gold ETF's or Gold stocks and the like. People are buying and hoarding U.S. gold coins. This is gold you can bang on a table. Not paper gold sold with a promise. $20.00 double eagles are around $200.00 over spot. a few years ago they sold at around $20.00 over spot. U.S. Mint is limiting new gold coin production also. Similar situation with silver coins. <BR/>This fact is seldom seen in the headlines!<BR/>Gold $ is holding up quit well if you use this measure. After all aren't us gold coins what the majority / masses can actually "trust" and take comfort in owning in times like this. Look back in history.<BR/>Not paper!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-58188290201310941472008-10-28T19:04:00.000+00:002008-10-28T19:04:00.000+00:00Keith wrote :It is tempting to load up the truck a...<I>Keith wrote :It is tempting to load up the truck and buy foreign stocks, commodities and short the dollar and t-bills<BR/><BR/>Someone talk me out of it.</I><BR/><BR/>Can't. IF (when) the US dollar falls, then getting out before to another zone's assets that have already fallen down to the floor should protect you from the US based losses.<BR/><BR/>It's simply a matter of timing. But it something that MUST be done. And timed correctly.<BR/><BR/>In the words of Dirty Harry : Are you feeling lucky punk? Well, are you?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34354781258719153382008-10-28T18:21:00.000+00:002008-10-28T18:21:00.000+00:00How about those ETF's?How about those ETF's?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-77841551462200654492008-10-28T17:23:00.000+00:002008-10-28T17:23:00.000+00:00What HPers fail to understand is that they wished ...What HPers fail to understand is that they wished upon a great bubble bursting. That is where you failed! You will all go down too! Fools, this is what you get for wishing bad upon everyone else!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67767353508946785422008-10-28T17:20:00.001+00:002008-10-28T17:20:00.001+00:00I read Schiff's book and went to see him speak in ...I read Schiff's book and went to see him speak in person. I contemplated investing with Schiff, but my gut told me not to. I found Roubini. I also found Mish. They made sense to me. I pulled my $$$ out of the market on 1-2-08. <BR/><BR/>Anyone who invested with Schiff has probably lost big. His predictions are not panning out right now. I think they will at a later point after we wrap up this ugly bout of deflation.<BR/><BR/>Inflation (free money era 2003 -2007), Deflation (now), Inflation (It's coming. Got gold?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4298799582336212032008-10-28T17:12:00.000+00:002008-10-28T17:12:00.000+00:00Commodities run in a 20 years cycle, so keep that ...Commodities run in a 20 years cycle, so keep that in mind if you want to buy cheap: you have a long wait ahead. Stocks have not made a dime in ten years (Dow at 1998 prices), and they also have a 20 year horizon. Choose accordingly.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-20830175040812226752008-10-28T17:08:00.000+00:002008-10-28T17:08:00.000+00:00Of course this is the buying opportunity of a life...Of course this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. That is exactly when you should buy -- when panic sends everyone else running for the exits. But then again, this time, it may take a lifetime to realize some profit.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34735764628823251122008-10-28T17:03:00.000+00:002008-10-28T17:03:00.000+00:00"Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time befor..."Europe is fake; it is just a matter of time before that house of cards collapse."<BR/><BR/>I disagree. The quality of life there is so much higher in many respects.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34908083754728928202008-10-28T17:00:00.001+00:002008-10-28T17:00:00.001+00:00This is supposedly a tempoary bump, due to the unw...This is supposedly a tempoary bump, due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The dollar will crash eventually.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-43216519234418020722008-10-28T17:00:00.000+00:002008-10-28T17:00:00.000+00:00sorry keith but you should leave the complicated s...sorry keith but you should leave the complicated stuff to these guys...<BR/><BR/>http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=57193#post57193Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-36238910248610065212008-10-28T16:53:00.000+00:002008-10-28T16:53:00.000+00:00I'm with the one or two thinking people on this bl...I'm with the one or two thinking people on this blog - Schiff said buy and then started selling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-18001082619269479392008-10-28T16:21:00.000+00:002008-10-28T16:21:00.000+00:00Schiff is more long term. That is, his point is t...Schiff is more long term. <BR/><BR/>That is, his point is that once foreign countries wake up to the fact that the US has no money, they will stop loaning it money, the US goes bankrupt and the dollar collapses. The trick, however, is to first get out of dollars without causing alarm and then to teach their own people (who have money) to become western type consumers such that the vast majority of their production is consumed internally, rather than exported. <BR/><BR/>It will take time, but it will happen.<BR/><BR/>The US is the new EnglandAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com