So do you think society in general now understands that the speculative, out-of-control, runaway increase in house prices, which of course was unsustainable and not supported by any fundamentals, was not a good thing afterall?
(btw, record fall in prices reported today in the UK - and away they go...)
May 29, 2008
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
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59 comments:
i love how house prices always fall more then analysts expected.
the analysts obviously don't read HP ;)
keep up the good work Keith
In terms of the global society Keith I think it is just becoming an emergent consciousness and corresponding realisation...certainly where I am due to the buffer effect of infested media etc...."general inflation, interest rapes...food prices?? WTF?!" I have a laconic drawl these days and distant stare. Could spit a bit of chewing tobacco on the ground if I had it and say...."yup, you's f#cked". -Well 'we're' f#cked but I at least I rent a nice cheap place by the ocean, have a good collection of fishing rods. C'est la vive.
Costco profits up 32%
Oh my it must be a depression
DOPES
DOLTS
FOOLS
TOOLS
Good times in the UK -- credit crunch, melting home prices, and a spike in inflation. I think I may have seen this someplace before.
I don't think the public at large understands any such thing. They are too dumb to put 2 and 2 together. They think all the bad things happening now are because house and condo prices are falling but they don't understand that it was the crazy high prices that caused this in the first place (and cheap credit that caused that).
We are a short-sighted and ignorant species indeed.
Some commentary from some Eastern European economists on the housing bubble spreading across Europe.
HOUSING BUBBLE SPREADS ACROSS EUROPE
I think it all comes down to their monthly payment. No one cares about value as long as the monthly can be comfortably paid.
When will they start to roll upside down mortgages into the next one, a la car loans?
That’s the Millennium Coaster at Cedar Point! That is a fantastic roller coaster
FYI I sold in 6/06 and netted 285k! TAX FREE! Ha!
The Nascar crowd has no clue as to what is happening around them.
Of course people don't understand. Everyone seems to think that falling house prices are bad, and they can't wait to return to a "normal" [bubble] real estate market.
“So do you think society in general now understands that the speculative, out-of-control, runaway increase in house prices, which of course was unsustainable and not supported by any fundamentals, was not a good thing afterall?”
--------------------------------
Uh...the answer to that question would be a “NO.”
What society DOES understand is that housing prices are dropping, but most people do not make the connection that prices are dropping from unsustainably high levels.
Nor are most people out there seeing the correlation between the past few years’ crazy runup in house prices and the fact that gas, food and most everything else is going sky-high in cost.
But what they are beginning to understand is just how f*cked they are.
-Mammoth
Understand in the sense that reminds me of the coyote in the roadrunner cartoons understanding in that perfect moment of realization that he's 1000 feet above the desert floor, about to begin to fall, nothing he can do about it...
And we're the roadrunner(s), watching gleefully.
Understand will fully manifest itself in the RUSH FOR THE EXITS!
i don't think they do, plenty of people still seem to think things will go back to the way they were or that now really is a great time to buy.
Most of the idiots still think that the dotcom ponzi scheme was a wonderful thing.
it's hard to know; after prices go up, and perhaps salaries, we'd have to remind folks that, inflation adjusted, they really didn't; thus, perhaps home prices will stick-- or grow but, because of the hidden inflation tax, it will be an illusion.
Who was it said "There's a sucker born every minute"? WC Fields?
Human stupidity endures
"...house prices always fall more then analysts expected..."
A more cynical person might think they(and bond-raters) don't really "analyse"...
More like "verbalize" their employers' instructions.
FLASH:
GDP revised up, Gold trending down over 3 months, commodities trend down, unemployment revised up.
In other news:
HPers lose all around, both their investments and their $6.00/hr McDonald's jobs. Most hunker down in mom's basement.
I spoke with some people traveling from London several months back, and they were telling me just how bad housing is there - children being forced to move back home.
Even though the kids have jobs, prices are so insane that they can't even afford the rent - even with 2 or 3 jobs.
We're soon to follow here, in fact it's already happening, just nor in your or my neighborhoods yet.
Beach cities tend to suffer from delusional thinking.
bearmaster said...
Some commentary from some Eastern European economists on the housing bubble spreading across Europe.
HOUSING BUBBLE SPREADS ACROSS EUROPE
"perhaps home prices will stick-- or grow but, because of the hidden inflation tax, it will be an illusion."
This is what happened with the housing bubble of 1990 popping. If you look at it in nominal prices, the prices went down a little bit and then held their value. When you look at an inflation adjusted graph you see a large drop in home values. I'm thinking that it's going to level off at around the 1990 bubble prices (in real terms) and then stagnate for a few years.
1% GDP growth last quarter. Some depression.
Consumers are gravitating to Costco and discount retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as they face record U.S. gasoline prices and higher food expenses. Costco's customers, who pay an annual membership fee, also visit for bargains on luxury items such as a 1-ounce bottle of Shalimar perfume for $225.
``They are benefiting from people who are trying to save money,'' said Patricia Edwards, a Seattle-based portfolio manager at Wentworth, Hauser & Violich, with $14.8 billion in assets including Costco shares.
Consumers are gravitating to Costco and discount retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as they face record U.S. gasoline prices and higher food expenses. Costco's customers, who pay an annual membership fee, also visit for bargains on luxury items such as a 1-ounce bottle of Shalimar perfume for $225.
``They are benefiting from people who are trying to save money,'' said Patricia Edwards, a Seattle-based portfolio manager at Wentworth, Hauser & Violich, with $14.8 billion in assets including Costco shares.
"There's a sucker born every minute" is a phrase often credited to P.T. Barnum (1810 – 1891), an American showman.
Sitting at a local pub, frequented by retired police officers, firemen, doctors, plumbers and housing contractors - the conversation typically degenerates into housing, salaries and pensions.
However, now the conversation has more substance as these same people are beginning to acknowledge high prices in commodities.
Why? Because now even *they* are getting hit in the wallet - heck their beer schooner's have even started going up - that puts a kink in the day.
Costco profits up 32%
Oh my it must be a depression
DOPES
DOLTS
FOOLS
TOOLS
Are you even capable of reasoning?
Stupid monkey...
Costco has the least selection and the smallest mark up of any other chain. So the fact that everyone is shopping there indicates that people are starting to hunker down for a bad economic storm.
The next big cash cow is going to be Lowes and Home Depot as people start buying garden crap so that they can grow their own food.
After that - you'll see the bottom of the barrel drop out.
.
no
.
pt barnum
"Costco profits up 32%
Oh my it must be a depression
DOPES
DOLTS
FOOLS
TOOLS"
Is this a joke, sarcasm? Wow, one company posts record profits so the whole housing debacle is over.
How bout:
- record crude oil prices caused by Fed induced inflation.
- a crashing home building market
- 0.9% growth in the first quarter, with inflation more then that
Yeah that's nothing to get upset about. Why can't we have a market where fraud, deception aren't countered with more fraud and deception as a solution.
So basically you are saying that the condo I paid $80k for is only worth....$80k? It's not worth $225K? Oh %$&* I'm HELOC'D!
what about house prices in dubai, the seventh circle of real estate hell?
I love the HP spin. Costco profit is up 32%, GDP is growing at 1% (not great but not horrible either) and you imbeciles are acting like it's 1931.
"Gold trending down over 3 months"
-------------------
Someone said Gold is going on sale soon? Cool - time to stock up again!
If my mom will allow me to leave her basement for a while...
Anon Said:
Costco profits up 32%
Oh my it must be a depression
DOPES
DOLTS
FOOLS
TOOLS
------------------
What a fool! Do you also know that Salvation Army and Goodwill made a killing in the last quarter?
Do you know that SPAM food sales went up 13%?
Anon, do you want some more cheerful tips? Just examine your toilet paper--you might find a few good corners that you have not yet used... and keep wiping... coz you still smell like sh*t!
The metrosexual PBS crowd is still clueless
"Costco profits up 32%"
Guess I'm not the only one buying a couple hundred pounds of flour every time going there grocery shopping for the week :-) What's up with the disappearance of all the free tasting stations? Where did spam cans go?
Oh man, these crooks on Wall Street are on fire. Our rotten GDP hits 0.9 only because the imports are dead and the market rallies. That means that retailing is dead, as the 3/4 of the GDP is consumer driven.
Wait for the huge fleecing coming up. The market will tank tomorrow. Yesterday the PPT came at the last 30 min of close to turn it positive.
IT'S ALL RIGGED! NOTHING CHANGES, DO YOU HEAR OBAMA CULTISTS???
Costco profits up 32%
2 months ago I told you all here to buy COST because during a recession warehouse thrives.
I think it all comes down to their monthly payment. No one cares about value as long as the monthly can be comfortably paid.
I agree. I think most of the home debtors were aware that they were probably paying way too much for their house, but as long as they could afford the initial monthly payments on their toxic, explode in your face, gimmick mortgage, they didn't care...
Anon, we don't think it's 1931, we think it's 1928. Patience..
I've seen many bubbles rise and bust, not just here in America but in other places around the world. the most incredible thing is - people NEVER learn. My favorite quote: "This time it's different!"
anon said...
1% GDP growth last quarter. Some depression.
___________________________________
That's based on a government reported inflation rate of 2.6%. Who else here thinks inflation was only 2.6% in the first quarter?
Anyone?
Jymkata
PS I nominate "Yu Been Skooled" as the DOPES of 2008!
"Costco profits up 32%"
It would hit 50% if they sold MREs.
Costco profits up 32%
Does it include the gasoline sold by COSTCO?
I spoke with some people traveling from London several months back, and they were telling me just how bad housing is there - children being forced to move back home.
Even though the kids have jobs, prices are so insane that they can't even afford the rent - even with 2 or 3 jobs.
That's what happens when you continue to pump into Britain Muslims and other third world country cesspools. From South American hookers to African welfare parasites to Russian crooks, England has been embracing all. Enjoy the die-off.
Realty said (in reference to Costco):
“Where did spam cans go?”
--------------------------------
Is there a lot of food hoarding happening these days?
Guess that I’m not the only person stocking up on canned food whenever it goes on sale these days.
Also growing a big vegetable garden this year AND learning how to save & preserve seeds.
Most people believe the home prices will come back within 10 years....because RE prices ALWAYS come back.
However, I don't believe it's the case this time.
What's up with the disappearance of all the free tasting stations? Where did spam cans go?
-----------
So true... I went to Costco in San Leandro at lunch time today, and there were no tasting stations-anywhere.
Costco trying to keep their overhead down? Also, I never see the same cashier twice-always new people working there...
I've seen many bubbles rise and bust, not just here in America but in other places around the world. the most incredible thing is - people NEVER learn. My favorite quote: "This time it's different!"
Indeed. The "new paradigm" as they like to call it. The "new economy". Remember all those snazy catch phrases?
Well, like many on this forum acknowledge: people are stupid and they are SHEEP. Eventually, sheep get slaughtered. I just hope they don't take the rest of us with them.
"This is what happened with the housing bubble of 1990 popping. If you look at it in nominal prices, the prices went down a little bit and then held their value. When you look at an inflation adjusted graph you see a large drop in home values. I'm thinking that it's going to level off at around the 1990 bubble prices (in real terms) and then stagnate for a few years."
Then what?
There will not be a recovery in any sense that any of us understand the word. Why? Oil supply cannot meet demand anymore. It's over, people. The Oil Age has peaked. Human technology has peaked -- the energy to drive the tractors that plant the food is running out. Cars are killing us. Literally.
Meals Rejected by Ethiopians...?
Costco profits up 32%
Oh my it must be a depression
Costco, Walmart, Target, K-Mart are basically "inferior goods" (or suppliers thereof)
they do well when the economy tanks
people NEVER learn. My favorite quote: "This time it's different!"
favorite bubble blog quote:
"This time it's different...it's much worse"
"I love the HP spin. Costco profit is up 32%, GDP is growing at 1% (not great but not horrible either) and you imbeciles are acting like it's 1931."
No moron - they are acting like it's 1928...
From Urban Dictionary:
Jingle Mail:
Jingle mail is the package containing the keys to your house that you send back to the bank when the interest rate on your adjustable-rate or IO/neg-am mortgage resets, or the property tax bill gets reassessed at double what it was two years ago, or you find out that heating and AC and repairs cost a ton of freaking money, or you lose your job because of the recession that's coming with the housing crash, and you can't make the payments any more.
My neighbor put up the Escalade and the Beemer that he bought with his third HELOC for sale, and has been having garage sales every week for the last month to raise cash ... I give it about 90 days till he sends in the jingle mail.
To all the morons who scoff at the Costco numbers....
"IBM (NYSE: IBM) enjoyed a solid quarter with $1.1 billion in z10 mainframe shipments, up 10.4 percent over first-quarter 2007 -- the highest first quarter revenue for IBM's System z systems in three years."
"Linux servers also enjoyed strong sales, rising 8.4 percent over first quarter 2007 to $1.8 billion, accounting for 13.7 percent of all server revenue."
"Microsoft also continued to show growth in Windows-based servers, with revenue from server sales totaling $5.1 billion in Q1 of 2008, a 4.2 percent year-over-year increase. Windows-based servers accounted for 39.2 percent of all server revenue during the quarter."
DOPES
DOLTS
TOOLS
FOOLS
That's what happens when you continue to pump into Britain Muslims and other third world country cesspools. From South American hookers to African welfare parasites to Russian crooks, England has been embracing all. Enjoy the die-off.
Yeah, that's right, blame the immigrants. Around here it's not the immigrants that were rolling around like $30K millionaires.
It was stupid middle class white people flipping homes, taking out HELOCs and just consuming like a bunch of Nouveau Riche filthy hogs.
Anon 11:31,
IBM has 60% if its total sales originating from overseas, and that of Microsoft is around 40%. The 18% decline in USDollarIndex may have something to do with those "increases" when converted back into dollar for US accounting.
Yeah, that's right, blame the immigrants. Around here it's not the immigrants that were rolling around like $30K millionaires.
I hate to break it to you but you live in a socialist regime that pumps millions of illiterate immigrants in, while the working class who actually pays tax ends up supporting their arses through higher taxes and socialist welfare.
Do you think that pumping millions of immigrants per year doesn't affect your sewage, social services, water, electricity, roads, government, law enforcement, etc? These immigrants get dual citizenship off your backs, then most of the cash they earn in the underground economy (i.e., drugs, tips, prostitution, counterfeit goods, etc) is sent back to their countries of origin. See, they use the infrastructure you pay for, but the cash they earn is not applied back into your economy. That's why local governments are going bankrupt and taxes are skyrocketing. Politicians love their votes and corporations love depressed wages, so they keep pumping them in.
Do you think that your universal health care will last long with this tsunami of immigrants coming in every year? And now you belong to the EU, so your wages can be depressed by an over supply of cheap labor from across Europe. Why do think that the EU was created?
Don't be sad because the US is doing the same. And after the Messiah arrives, backed up by a Democrat majority, immigration will explode in America.
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