May 29, 2008

Here's some of the home price drops by city. Can we all agree now that REALTORS and the NAR are thoroughly & forever discredited?

Chicago -10.0%
Detroit -17.9%
Larry Murphy's Las Vegas -25.9%
Connie De Groot's LA -21.7%
Miami -24.6%
Minneapolis -14.1%
Greg Swann's Phoenix -23.0%
Leslie Appleton Young's San Diego -20.5%
San Fran -20.2%
Kendra Todd's Tampa -19.6%
Lawrence Yun's Wash DC -14.7%

47 comments:

eric in vegas said...

Vegas representin'

Anonymous said...

How is Greg Swann still employed in real estate?

Anonymous said...

True, people who bought recently got crushed. Otherwise they'll be fine

Anonymous said...

Get ready for all the inner-beltway DC owners to start screamn' "NOT inside the beltway!!"

It's different there, ya know - close to Bush Co

Anonymous said...

Tell me HP, who made the better decision?

ME: bought a house in 2000 for $210K. Value went to $800K. Now down to $650K and most likely will go down another $100K. 30 year fixed, refinanced in 2003 at 5.15%. Mortgage payment including tax and insurance is about what renting a 2 bedroom apartment costs in the same area of town, yet I live in a 2900 sq ft house. Got tax deductions for the past 8 years and for the next 15 years. Meaning my actual cost is significantly less than renting. And as rents increase every year, my mortgage stays the same and will for the next 15 years.

YOU: rented an apartment the past 8 years and are now paying more in rent than me to live in an apartment



Don

Paul E. Math said...

I second that emotion.

But, luckily, they are on their way out. They have finally settled the case brought against them by the Justice Department for excluding discount realtors from the MLS.

http://tinyurl.com/48s7nu

I would love to see a realtor site like trulia or zillow that does quick-and-dirty appraisals based on average local incomes and average local rents. So far they still just look at comps which really is looking at prices in the rearview mirror.

LAWRENCE PUN said...

I TRIED HAVING YOUR BLOG SHUTDOWN, BUT GOOGLE TOLD ME TO SHUT THE F#CK UP AND STICK TO MAKING HOUSING FORECASTS WITH MY MAGIC 8-BALL...

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO, EVEN THE SMALL TOWN NEWSPAPERS ARE REFUSING TO PUBLISH MY BOGUS PREDICTIONS...

TALK ABOUT INFLATION, THEY USED TO PUBLISH MY GARBAGE FOR FREE, NOW THEY WANT THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS UP FRONT, PLUS PROOF OF ERRORS AND OMISSIONS INSURANCE...

Twin Cities said...

I live in Minneapolis, and the numbers are obviously skewed. One area, North Minneapolis, prices have fallen 75-80 percent, while other areas are still increasing. Sure, maybe it averages out to the Case-Shiller numbers, but I don't think it gives an accurate view to the city's market as a whole.

Question for everyone else: Are there neighborhoods in your cities that are single-handedly ruining the numbers for your entire metro area?

Anonymous said...

I amazed Detroit was able to go lower than it already is!

Anonymous said...


True, people who bought recently got crushed. Otherwise they'll be fine



How about all the people with HELOCs?

Anonymous said...

You crack me up. Your generalized comment about REALTORS and the NAR is no less the same thing as if I were to generalize all Blacks as thugs and rappers, all Whites as racist supremist, all Asians as rice cooking, cat eating geniuses, and every man that speaks with somewhat of a feminine tone as gay. Did any of that spark a reaction? Good or bad, it's absurd. I am a REALTOR and I for one have not been "lying". I tell them like it is. As a matter of fact, the "positive" spin makes my job much harder because the sellers then have unrealistic expectations. I am in the Middle Tennessee area where our market doesn't even resemble the National Market and the National Trends aren't holding water here. The only similarity is "Yes" the market is slower here and prices continue to fall, but we are still much, much better than the rest of the nation. For that I am thankful, but we still face declining value by the month and in some areas, even weeks. So your posting headline is along the same lines as any other person who can't seem to get away from extremes, be it a Democrat, a Republican, or someone who thinks they can lump ALL Realtors in the same boat. And let me tell you, I am for regulating the real estate industry much more than it is now because anyone and their mother can get a license and barely know what the heck they are doing. So for those who think we do nothing and get paid too much for it, without going into my life, I can tell you that you are probably right....for a majority of agents. But there are those who do this full time and don't do it on the side, and treat this as a true profession and are professionals.

Can we now all agree that all bloggers who comment on REALTORS are thoroughly and forever discredited?

And before you try to comment on the fact I am anonymous on here, I don't ever get on these things and this is actually the first time I've ever even commented on anything such as this. So I'm not quite comfortable on putting my info out there on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Is it possible for Greg Swann to look a bigger idiot today?

Anonymous said...

@ Don,

First of all, your scenario is severely inflated. I don't know any areas that went up almost 400% between 2000 and 2006. So lets take out your BS factor and say you bought at 200K and at the peak maybe your house was worth 550K. Now your house is worth about 350K. By the end of 2011 it will be worth 200K again.

OK, so you did well. You have been paying down your principle and getting a nice tax deduction in the meantime, and you live in a nice house. I would have made the same decision as you if I would have been in a place to buy in my area (So Cal) in 2000. Because of my young age, I didn't start earning enough to be able to afford a house in this area until about 2004. By that time, the prices had clearly over-inflated and I decided to wait it out. I am glad now that I did. I have seen same unit sale prices in my area go from high 500K's in '05 to low 300K's now. We are actually back to 2002-2003 pricing already with a long way to go still.

Congrats on buying before the bubble. Do you ever wish you would have sold near the peak and pocketed all that profit-renting until the prices dropped again?

Anonymous said...

"ME: bought a house in 2000 for $210K."

Exactly, we all need to buy houses in 2000. Or make more money. That's the sort of poignant advice that wins elections.

Anonymous said...

"ME: bought a house in 2000 for $210K."

Exactly, we all need to buy houses in 2000. Or make more money. That's the sort of poignant advice that wins elections.

Christopher said...

Boston Globe is reporting 187.5% decline year over year for Massachusetts.

ONE HUNDRED EIGHTY SEVEN PERCENT DECLINE!

What recovery?

Christopher S. Penn
Producer, the Financial Aid Podcast
Daily free financial aid internet radio, no iPod required
http://www.FinancialAidPodcast.com

sell high said...

anonymous (Don) @11:54 AM,

I'd say the guy who saw the bubble prices for what they were and sold the house when it was so $700k and will buy it back a bit after it bottoms (at $550k according to you - 10% appreciation a year seems a tad higher than historic, I suspect many would expect it to go lower than that, then again inflation is roaring).

Anonymous said...

Don said...

Tell me HP, who made the better decision?

ME: bought a house in 2000 for $210K. Value went to $800K. Now down to $650K and most likely will go down another $100K. 30 year fixed, refinanced in 2003 at 5.15%. Mortgage payment including tax and insurance is about what renting a 2 bedroom apartment costs in the same area of town, yet I live in a 2900 sq ft house. Got tax deductions for the past 8 years and for the next 15 years. Meaning my actual cost is significantly less than renting. And as rents increase every year, my mortgage stays the same and will for the next 15 years.

YOU: rented an apartment the past 8 years and are now paying more in rent than me to live in an apartment

___________________________________

Kudos to you on not drinking the HELOC kool-aid these past 8 years. However, think about this.

If you had sold your house at peak price you'd have about $550,000 in cash in the bank (lets say you can earn 3% on it). That gives you additional monthly income of $1,375.

Now, add that to what you're paying on a mortgage right now (given your numbers, I estimate your mortgage payment is about $1200/month plus taxes, maintenance, insurance and HOA fees) and figure out what you can rent. I'm pretty sure it's going to be better than a 2 bedroom apartment.

Jymkata

P.S. You're house is going to drop more than another $100k. It will drop back to it's 2000 price plus 3%-4% for inflation. I estimate your house will eventually fall to about $300,000 by 2012.

Don't think that can happen? Prices are dropping 2% a month right now in bubble markets (I assume that's where you live given your appreciation numbers). That means you're losing $13,000/month in equity on your house.

Ouch!

not andrea gressinger said...

"I am a REALTOR and I for one have not been "lying". I tell them like it is. As a matter of fact, the "positive" spin makes my job much harder because the sellers then have unrealistic expectations."

This post is so funny when you consider the correct use of quotation marks.

NEPA gal said...

"Can we now all agree that all bloggers who comment on REALTORS are thoroughly and forever discredited?"

No, Realtor Anon, we cannot...because we were RIGHT.

The bottom line of your profession is this: You charge a ridiculous amount of money for something anyone who can read is able to do themselves. It is NOT rocket science. There is no mystery. If someone wants to be lazy and pay you, fine. But people deserve to know the TRUTH...that all you do is place some ads, push around some papers, and spend money on gas then cash your big check at the end of it all. People in your profession helped drive prices up and up and up despite the fact that there was no rational association between income and said price, all so you could make more money for doing less work...but that is SO OVER. Bye bye, teaser ARM. Bye bye, SISA, NINA and other variants. They are gone baby gone...and soon, you shall be flipping burgers with the people you sucked a commission off who've now been foreclosed upon. Enjoy.

Paul E. Math said...

Anon 3:28 PM, jump in, the water's warm.

You don't have to leave 'personal' information - just end your comment with some made-up name so we can refer to your comments which, to a certain extent, are valid.

I think we all privately know that there must be some ethical, wothwhile Realtors out there. It's just that there are so many bad apples, the bathwater is so filthy and there is so much of it that we can't find the baby in it.

The most well-known Realtors are all guilty of presenting themselves as economic experts and made wildly inaccurate statments and enriched themselves by contributing to this housing bubble. Your national and state associations are primary offenders in this area as well. Your profession is rightly in disgrace as a result.

Until you are up at arms, joining us in the fight against the dishonest practices of your associations and fellow Realtors then we are going to lump you in with the rest of the worthless, lying pieces of garbage who share your 'profession'.

DonWhacker said...

"Anon said:
Tell me HP, who made the better decision?

ME: bought a house in 2000 for $210K. Value went to $800K."

YOU: Liar,Shill, Phoney,
Be a man and provide an address or STFU!

not andrea gressinger said...

HP did not exist in 2000...

Anonymous said...

Don:

You are an utter and complete douche.

No one here has ever indicated that buying a home before the bubble, or when it made sense relative to renting, was a bad thing.

Of course buying in 2000 made sense. However, and depending upon the specific situation, it generally does not make any sense today.

And, I rent a 3 bedroom townhouse for 2000/month less than it would cost me to buy.

Now, continue on with your douchebaggery, douchebag.

Anonymous said...

Nope, can't agree.

Why weren't realtors and the NAR "forever discredited" after previous real estate debacles?

Each generation makes the same mistakes. People have to learn on their own. There will be future stock market and real estate bubbles.

Anonymous said...

twin cities:
"Are there neighborhoods in your cities that are single-handedly ruining the numbers for your entire metro area?"

During the boom, North Minneapolis home prices were artificially inflated by about 5X in just a few years. Look at the mortgage fraud committed by TJ Waconia. They single-handedly skewed the numbers upward. That ruined it, in a different way. It got everybody thinking the entire metro was appreciating at 50%/year.

What areas are still increasing in the Twin Cities? They aren't where I live.

patrickthemediocre said...

How is Greg Swann still employed in real estate?

Simple. By pretending to teach others at seminars about real estate, rather than actually selling real estate.

The Wade Cook school of daytrading brought to real estate...Though since ol' Wade is now in the pokey doing time for income tax evasion, that's probably a bit over the top by way of comparison. But it was my first thought of who his "Unchained" seminar most sounded like when I first read about it, so I'll go with it.

patrickthemediocre said...

Christopher said...
Boston Globe is reporting 187.5% decline year over year for Massachusetts.

ONE HUNDRED EIGHTY SEVEN PERCENT DECLINE!


Eh? Does that mean somebody selling house worth $100,000 last year now brings $87,000 cash to the closing with them?

FWIW, the only entry I see on the Globe's Real Estate Now blog is one about a generalized 12% decline. And even that one gets "lipstick on a pig" treatment. See here

So, I'm not sure what Christoper is seeing, since I'm not.

Roscoe said...

From Tampa, FL Suburbs:

Sales stats for my neighborhood for the last year (all homes feature similar size/amenities requiring building permit):

8/2007: $355,000
12/2007: $295,000
1/1008: $312,000

1/08 sale was to a military family who transferred and needed to buy quickly.

12/07 sale tried to resell within the last few months for $290,000 but couldn't find a buyer.

Assuming the houses aren't worth $290,000 and things won't change in the next two months, we've seen about 20% reduction. Of course, that's on top of the %25 percent drop we saw for the 18 months prior to 8/07.

I used to guess the bottom would be 40% (back to 2000 prices) for my street, but we're already there and headed lower.

Happy homeowner said...

To the guy that bought in 2000, Amen. I have many investment properties that I have been using that same logic on and it has made me independent of any employer. That being said, if the person HELOC'd it all depends on what they used the HELOC for. If they purchaseed a Hummer, Boat, and vacation - they are in a world of hurt. On the other hand, if they bought some oil stocks, kept some in a high interest savings account as insurance (the premium being the spread between the 3% savings and 6% heloc rate) and let the tenants pay the costs, then they are laughing at all of you. See the problem with you guys is that you take the worst example of greed and stupidity, then paint with a broad brush that EVERYONE who owns real estate is dying. Just a couple of points to think about- A: While the MSM likes to hype that foreclosures are rampant, the actual figures NOT skewed for doom show that a small percentage of the overall mortgages in the country are defaulting. The increase in percentage is staggering year over year because the default rate when everyone could refi endlessly was abnormally low for 3 years, now it is abnormally high because of 3 years of pent up debt buildup by people that should have never had a mortgage in the first place. B: The banking problem on Wall Street was NOT caused exclusively by housing related losses, it was just the initial trigger. The REAL cause of the problems on Wall Street were due to crafty hedging, LBO's at enormous premiums for companies that should NEVER have been purchased for what they were, and margin accounts used to excess for the quick score. Mix in a little bit of market panic, and you have a crash. Most companies that were never over valued or LBO'd are returning to their previous highs, while others are still dead.

Trying to make the case that housing is the ultimate evil, and all homeowners are fliptards or over extended is a dumb generalization and just shows you are the "sheeple" that I see so many making fun of here. Sheeple are people that believe generalities as gospel and do not look deeper in to the "fine print" to find the real story. Please get educated before making a blanket generalization of anyhing. The only fool may ultimately be you otherwise.

6% is history said...

No, Realtor Anon, we cannot...because we were RIGHT.

The bottom line of your profession is this: You charge a ridiculous amount of money for something anyone who can read is able to do themselves. It is NOT rocket science. There is no mystery. If someone wants to be lazy and pay you, fine. But people deserve to know the TRUTH...that all you do is place some ads, push around some papers, and spend money on gas then cash your big check at the end of it all. People in your profession helped drive prices up and up and up despite the fact that there was no rational association between income and said price, all so you could make more money for doing less work...but that is SO OVER. Bye bye, teaser ARM. Bye bye, SISA, NINA and other variants. They are gone baby gone...and soon, you shall be flipping burgers with the people you sucked a commission off who've now been foreclosed upon. Enjoy.

==================================

*Instant Classic*

Will the 6%'ers ever understand they have no defense..."0".

Just by posting on HP they open the door to scathing abuse which they richly deserve.

Tom said...

Kudos to nepa gal. Very well said.

Realtors are about as useful as a sh*t flavored lollypop. To me, acquiring the services of a realtor is akin to having a stock broker do all your buying and selling of stock. Why not do the research yourself and save on commissions?

It will only be a matter of time before software and the internet make realtors obsolete. Just like Etrade, TD Ameritrade made brokers obsolete. And Intuit is putting the pinch on accountants. (Who I have WAY more respect for)

Realtors: you are nothing more than glorified used car salesman. You are not interested in helping families, you are merely interested in pocketting your grossly inflated commission. Nuff said.

Anonymous said...

YOU: rented an apartment the past 8 years and are now paying more in rent than me to live in an apartment

Not really.

Me: sold at bubble peak for a $300k tax free profit. Then used profit to buy property overseas in a country that has its currency smashing the dollar since then.

Meanwhile, I've been renting a luxury oceanfront condo for $950 (1/5 of buying cost), while the second-home owners subsidize my 24 hrs-on central A/C, pool, jacuzzi, full gym, sauna, tennis courts, basic cable, valet, concierge, etc. So I practically live in a building that's 1/2 empty for most of the year. It's also nice to live 5 min from work during the high gas prices period. My gas bill for the month = $60. On weekends, I enjoy the beach right in front of me.

The huge savings I've been getting by renting were invested into foreign currency and utilities, emerging markets, commodities, etc, for a nice return since 2005. Thanks for the advice, Schiff and Jim Rogers.

When the market hits bottom, I'll pick a few properties, for pennies on the dollar, from f*cked homedebtors who are leveraged up the wazoo. And when the Euro goes into the toilet, we'll take a nice vacation in Europe. After all, airlines and hotels will be begging for business from anyone with discretionary money left.

I don't know why people complain so much about down cycles. I love to beat the system and fleece the wannabes.

Anonymous said...

Trying to make the case that housing is the ultimate evil, and all homeowners are fliptards or over extended is a dumb generalization and just shows you are the "sheeple" that I see so many making fun of here.

Just deny the strong evidence that homedebtors are screwed. You homedebtors are holding a cancer that's eating your Net Worth and financial security. Here's why:

http://tinyurl.com/444qj

Enjoy your retirement in poverty.

Anonymous said...

I am in the Middle Tennessee area where our market doesn't even resemble the National Market and the National Trends aren't holding water here. The only similarity is "Yes" the market is slower here and prices continue to fall, but we are still much, much better than the rest of the nation

Unfortunately, not all the 300 million Americans want to be a red neck living in the boring TN. Oh my, prices have held steady in a city of 2,000 inhabitants located in the middle of the swamp. How revealing!

Stuck in So Pa said...

Anonymous said...

......The huge savings I've been getting by renting were invested into foreign currency and utilities, emerging markets, commodities, etc, for a nice return since 2005. Thanks for the advice, Schiff and Jim Rogers.

When the market hits bottom, I'll pick a few properties, for pennies on the dollar, from f*cked homedebtors who are leveraged up the wazoo. And when the Euro goes into the toilet, we'll take a nice vacation in Europe. After all, airlines and hotels will be begging for business from anyone with discretionary money left.
===========================
Gotta agree on these three.

1. Emerging markets have been DAMN good to me in the last five years

2.During the Great Depression my grandfather and great-grandfather, who never trusted banks and LITERALLY kept their money under the mattress and buried in mason jars, made a killing buying up neighboring farms for next to nothing. My great uncle made a fortune in the 60's-70's-80's selling of parts of the farm to developers as Baltimore City sprawled out into the county!

3. I can still remember the Volker years, when the fed chairman had the balls to do what was necessary (had a 10 year cd paying 17.9%,) the U.S. was the first one out of the woods, and when the dollar was back on top foreign tourism practically PAID YOU to come to their shores!

Like the Good Book says: "there is nothing new under the sun."

Tyrone said...

YOU: bought a house in 2000 for $210K. Value went to $800K. Now down to $650K and most likely will go down another $100K.

YOU: Stupid shit for brains that thinks his/her house will only fall another $100K. 1999 or 2000 prices are returning.

YOU: Moron for thinking you've made money BEFORE actually selling.

Anonymous said...

Don you sound like a retard. Get laid or jerk it, or have a drink, or smoke some bud. You need it.

Zardeenah said...

I wish the home prices for cities weren't for Metro Area. Unfortunately, although the on-the-market times are longer in SF proper, I'm left wishing for that 20% drop (okay, I'm waiting for the 40% drop, but right now, I see nada in the city).

Happy Homeowner said...

"Just deny the strong evidence that homedebtors are screwed. You homedebtors are holding a cancer that's eating your Net Worth and financial security. Here's why:"

Sir, I looked at the Patrick.net link, and it is the same generalities that I was speaking of in my previous post. And you make the same tired bearish, gloom argument, based on those generalities. As far as my "enjoying my poverty", if living without the necessity of a job at 33 years of age is poverty, then I will take it. The advantage that I have here is that the house value could go to zero, and so would the property taxes and the insurance, which make my costs of owning the assets lower, and thus my return on it from rent (dividend) even better, however the population (in good areas) is still going to increase, and people will have to live somewhere, preferably close to work. The economy and interest rates will eventually turn up, and again I don't care as I am in low fixed mortgages. Currently I have been able to raise my rents higher in the last 6 months than I have been able to in the last 2 years due to all the "housing panic" and gloom. And, this should surprise all of you even more - I am in Phoenix! Oh god, housing crash central....So I think I will continue my vow of poverty, and you continue being a financial genius using those talents working for someone else generalizing what you hear and not focusing on details. At 33, I have time to spare waiting for my retirement in poverty. BTW, I don't own a Hummer and have a small personal home. I am not a Realtor - in fact I did not use a Realtor for any of my purchases, did not defraud anyone or take out a "liar loan" and also did not buy anything after March 2003. I have one HELOC that I have not even used. Am I still a screwed homedebtor? Of course I must be, I am going against a housing bear on HP.

Anonymous said...

I'm in the midwest and though small, 3% last year, we've continued to appreciate in value and homes are still selling as they've always done here, despite the downward turn on the coasts and big cities.

dedicated to Don said...

I bought in 1997 a house for $100K. It went up to $7.8 million and I sold it exactly at the top in 2005. Now I live in a $10K/month multi-bedroom luxury apartment off the interest and dividends generated from my after-tax investments. And I do no maintenance too!

Don: Stuck in a mortgage for the next 15 years hoping he never has to move or he's lost megabucks by not selling out at the top of the real estate market.

How believable is my story? Almost as believable as yours is, Don. Got any more 'tall tales' Don?

Anonymous said...

I agree...


generalize all Blacks as thugs and rappers, all Whites as racist supremist, all Asians as rice cooking, cat eating geniuses, and every man that speaks with somewhat of a feminine tone as gay.

taken out of context perhaps, but still true...

Anonymous said...

Nice parts of LA are doing great. I'm up 14% over the last year on a condo near the beach. It's just the areas with lots of Mexicans and blacks that are free-falling. Upscale neighborhoods are booming.

Anonymous said...

Yeah right ... blame it on the REALTOR's for bring the house prices down ... Blame the economy on the REALTOR's too for that matter. You have to be a real IDIOT to think and say such a statment ... blaming it on REALTORs ... give me a break.If your going to say such stupid comments first educate yourself on the topics first.

We REALTORs do a service like in any other profession. Whether you want to use our service is up to you ... just like in any other service.

Example .. how hard is it to do paint a house, change a pipe in the kitchen, change the oil in your car, add numbers and subtract managing a store ... it's the same. It's a service that you pay for because YOUR lazy ass does not want to get off the couch and do it yourself. If you do get up and do it yourself ... than great.

To generalize ... is to be an ignarant idiot.

Anonymous said...

I'm tired of people who claim that owning their home costs less than renting. Maybe the mortgage alone on a "cheap" house might be less than rent alone (and that depends on your down payment). But the cost of owning a home hardly stops at the mortgage. You have property taxes, which depending on where you live could be 50% or more of the average rents in your area. Depending on your down payment, you may have PMI costs. You have higher utility costs than renters (many apartments don't charge for heat or water, and apartments use less electricity). And then their's maintenance (roof, appliances, flooring, fixtures, general upkeep) that renters don't have to pay. When you add up all the costs of owning a home, it is much higher than rent.

Anonymous said...

Anon June 01, 2008 8:59 PM:
You have to do the math over time. I factored in all those costs you posted about, and compared against renting. I came up with break-even at 60, progressing up to millions ahead at 80 and 90 by owning.

Also, don't kid yourself. Your rent pays for most of the maintenance, taxes, etc. If the owner is a little behind, he'll make up for it when the house is paid off. Because while the mortgage goes away, your rent does not.