Remember when people were mocking HP'ers for talking about gold when it was at $500?
Same people are probably still not getting it with gold at $1000
Here's the best I can sum this up: It's not about gold. It's about the dollar.
Oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, silver, aluminum, gold... It really doesn't matter. What matters is that the dollar is being turned into toilet paper on purpose by Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson and George Bush.
Invest wisely. Gold is a historically crappy investment, but has always been and will always be the #1 store of value when fiat currencies go bust.
You ain't seen nothing yet. But oh, what a wild ride it will be (up and down).
March 14, 2008
Gold cracks $1000. What comes next: $500, or $2000?
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36 comments:
maybe $1300 then a fast fall to $900
Not only is it about the US Dollar, it's also about all the other currencies that are following us into the abyss.
Pretty sure gold/silver will reach bubble status at some point, but right now J6P is selling his gold, not buying it. Bubble territory is likely a long way off.
Long term, we will see $2K gold as the USD loses value and is displaced as the reserve currency. Don't ignore the possibility that central banks will try once again to kill the emerging "gold fever" psychology. They can drop the price 15%-20% if they see the need to act.
Also, one source of gold is never mentioned. I'm talking about the "mine" of jewelry and coins that can and will dump large quantities of gold and silver into the markets when prices rise and the MSM starts touting them.
Gold at $3,000 is now considered to be a CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. There are now certain economic circles that are discussing the possibility of $9,000 - $12,000 per ounce due to the following:
Gold is finite.
Immense economic and financial crises are lurking like tsunamis,earthquakes,avalanches,etc
Hedge fund crises (The infamous Carlyle Group linked to 911, and the Blackstone Group unable to obtain credit),aka 'level 3 assets' that run into the trillions supposedly and the fund managers dont know what they are really worth.
Big banks that are exposed to hedge funds/derivatives and do not have enough 'level 1' or 'level 2' assets to cover losses of 'level 3'.
Central banks all over the world,the IMF,and the big one The Bank of International Settlements in Switzerland unable to stem the avalanche with any of their tired methods.
Global crash in real estate (Except in Dubai) and the financial instruments tied to it.
'Sovereign Wealth Funds' of OPEC member nations,China/East Asia,etc 'decoupling' from the US Dollar and purchasing gold, Swiss bonds, Singapore dollars, Canadian dollars, Norwegian Kronas,and Euro bonds at the speed of light.
Impending nuclear strike/war with Iran especially now that Admiral Fallon,the 'archangel' defending sanity against the neocon 'barbarians at the gate' has now resigned.
The aforementioned are no longer just the domain of websites such as HP, Dollarcollapse.com,Fallstreet.com, etc., but are now headlines and discussions on CNN,Kudlow and Co.,the Wall Street Journal,Lou Dobbs,PBS's 'MacNeil/Lehrer News Hour',and Bloomberg (Fox News is the exception of course). This will eventually create 'incremental panic buying' of gold and panic selling of stocks,bonds,and real estate.
In a world of crises,chaos,and gross institutional systemic failure, GOLD IS THE CURRENCY OF LAST RESORT.
Finally, in the words of Henry Kissinger,"Remember, it is always the 'real economik' that will always govern the 'real politik'.
PS (Some other useful quoutes)
"A conservative is a liberal who just got mugged."
"A liberal is a conservative who just got laid off."
"If my neighbor gets laid off,it's a recession. If I get laid off,it's a DEPRESSION."
Gold reaches $2000 before it retreats to $500. In fact, I suspect that gold may never again be had nominally at $500 per ounce.
How fast it gets to $2000 and how much higher than that it goes will depend largely on how badly the Fed trashes the dollar.
However, there is leverage and speculation involved in gold prices as well, so the speed and magnitude of the price increases will also depend on what the investors do.
Because of the leverage involved, there will be some retrenchments on the way up to $2000, but none of the retrenchments will be severe enough to take the beautiful yellow metal down to the $500 mark.
Then Mighty Tangelo has spoken.
There's a moron on talk radio who keeps insisting that gold is worthless because he doesn't wear any jewelry besides his wedding ring.
I remember less than a decade ago when an ounce was $278 US, and I could buy a Canadian one ounce maple leaf gold coin for $500 to $550CAD. The Canadian dollar was between 60 to 70 cents US at the time.
Since then, Gold has doubled in price in Canada, while it has at least tripled in the US.
That statistic alone shows that the US dollar has lost %20 (or one fifth) of its value as compared to the Canadian dollar in as little as a decade.
If this continues, within the next 20-30 years, most young people who will be heading into their pension will find they wont be able to survive on it in the US.
At this point, one has to wonder what people should save for if the US dollar is being destroyed in such a way.
Sad times indeed.
Do you leftwing dailykook dopes have any guns since you think society is going to fall apart? Do you really think it will be kumbya when the welfare checks and food delivery trucks stop coming?
Nevermind, none of that's going to happen because Obama Messiah will heal the world.
I'm buying a house because unlike gold, real estate "never goes down".
Tis true. Heard that fact from the local real estate pimp whore in 2005.
LOL
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Gold is truly going nuts right now. With it hitting $1,000 what do you think is going to happen next, and why? With this sudden publicity, are all the ‘sheeple’ going to jump onto the bandwagon and push it up to $1,500 in a few month’s time, or will all the current holders simultaneously hit the “sell” – button within the next week and rake in their profits, driving the price down?
This is a serious issue for me because after selling my rental house last October, knowing that there would be a hefty capital gains tax on the proceeds, I set aside the estimated amount and bought some of the yellow stuff.
So, please put yourself squarely in the Mammoth’s shoes for a moment: You have a $$$ tax bill due in a month, your investment has increased by 30%. Would wait a bit longer to take additional gains - with the risk that gold may drop, or would you play it safe and sell right now?
Comments anyone?
Thanks,
Mammoth
Gold to $2,000. Period. End of Story.
Mammoth,
I love gold more than I love my wife.
However, if I were you, I'd play it safe and exit to $. I mean, your time horizon for this investment is very short, right?
I give it better than 50/50 that your gold will be worth more in a month than it is today. However, it could also feasibly be worth maybe 10% or so less than it is today; i.e., you risk your taxes coming due at the bottom of a severe retrenchment.
If a hit that size wouldn't hamper your ability to pay Uncle Scam, maybe you want to stick with the gold. However, if I were in your shoes, I'd take the opportunity to cash in the amount that is about to come due.
Left alone, gold will contine up untill the day the US and the Fed turns the sinking dollar around.
That being said, any Central Bank could easily dump their reserve gold on the market to raise money to fix financial problems.
No, gold will crash but not truely crash but fall to its 200 day MA. Here's why, it's right now, driven by both fear and speculative leveraged contracts. Really, the world's currencies, including the falling USD, is still used in the world's bourses, shops, and ports for many things.
The Euro, however, is the only one of the so-called reserve dollar alternatives which is in hyperbolic territory whereas the Pound/Aussie/Singapore/Canadian Dollars are where they're suppose to be.
My take is that gold will fall back to $800, the Euro will be range bound, 1.4 to 1.5, and the other currencies will appreciate at their current rate with a few retracements here and there.
still kicking myself for not getting in at 550. I was waiting for it to fall to 530 because I thought it was too high.
I don't know what to think now. That is, everytime I think it can't get worse, ole BB does more stupid shit.
Really quite amazing.
I think you are right about gold keith. It is about the dollar.
Forgot to mention, this should be interesting when Trichet is forced to lower rates.
Dny
So gold is at $1000 while silver is at $20.67 atm. That last number is very amusing if anyone can recall the pre-1933 valuation of USD. What was "as good as gold" 75 years ago is only "as good as silver" today. Alchemy in reverse!
Gold/Oil ratio about 9 right now. The average ratio is about 15.5
Take a look at this chart.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/images/png_images/gold-oil_ratio_30yrs.png
The gold-oil ratio identifies:
* Buying opportunities (for gold) when the gold-oil ratio turns up at/below 10 barrels/ounce; and
* Selling opportunities when the gold-oil ratio turns down at/above 20 barrels/ounce.
Do you think that oil price goes down soon?
Whats so damn funny here is this left wing kook will be able to hire many of those right wing nut jobs for pennies when their leadereship is finally done destabilizing and looting the USA. Gotta love it! And brother no, I can't spare a dime!
The thing I really like about gold/silver as apposed to real estate; you pay no carry taxes on gold/silver. What a country.
Gold slowly gains since more
pension trusts and hedge funds
looking at commodities. Any
downside is quickly borne by
these, "buying opportunities."
:you pay no carry taxes on gold/silver
It's a collectible; who pays taxes on their Baby Ruth cards?
Thanks Tangelo,
Yes I did 'pull the trigger' today.
Bought last September at $752/oz
Sold today at $994/oz
Percent Gain: 32%
Percent Gain after taking out 28% for capital gains tax: 23%
Not too bad.
Thanks HP!
If you adjust for inflation, the same calculation used in 1980, gold should be selling for over $6,000 an ounce.
Gold/Oil ratio about 9 right now. The average ratio is about 15.5
Throw that out the window. When it comes down to it, an economy runs on oil, not gold.
I think gold will fall back slightly, but definitely going to $2000 an oz. and possibly beyond.
At the last three estate sales, people were asking specifically for gold.
Oh btw, my favorite person - Jim the 'shill' cramer last week said gold is going to $1600.
Last week the IMF threatened to release a good portion of their gold reserves to quell the rise of the yellow stuff. china immediately offered to buy it all at 1500 per oz. The IMF balked and then the Euro union offered 2200 per oz. The IMF shut up real quick....gold will continue to rise and will become the monetary standard for the world again.
$5000.00
"will all the current holders simultaneously hit the “sell” – button "
With Central banks dumping gold on the market by the tonne, you think a few people selling a few Kruggerands will make the market tank?
Anon said:
Last week the IMF threatened to release a good portion of their gold reserves to quell the rise of the yellow stuff. china immediately offered to buy it all at 1500 per oz. The IMF balked and then the Euro union offered 2200 per oz. The IMF shut up real quick....gold will continue to rise and will become the monetary standard for the world again.
Do you have a link to the source? Please.
Here's what I believe...
Using the Great Depression as an analogy, back then, the public could only own silver, not gold due to FDR's executive action. During the first wave of deflation, silver crashed to a low of $0.25/oz in '32 but for the remainder of the decade, it retained its intrinsic worth and rose to $0.75 by '38.
Likewise, for today's time we may see a similar crash for the PMs, during the start of the downturn, but then, it'll be followed by a steady rise, the only difference is that this time, the crash will be migitated by a huge support at ~$650/oz for gold. Any break below this point is a fair buying opportunity to increase one's exposure.
I recommend to stick with the basket of Norwegian Korona, Canadian Loonie, Pound Sterling, and AUD during these troubling times ('08 to early '09) then in loading up on the PMs and even Euros until the real depression begins. That's when we'll have the first PM crash and afterwards, a full PM recovery along with the displacement of the USD as the reserve currency.
With the current instability in just about everything,
and whatever comes next.
Gold will probably continue to surprise on the upward side!
Gold seems robust to me, as long as the dollar doesn't. I've written an article on investing in gold for Mahalo.com. I'd be grateful for some feedback from anyone who has some of their portfolio in gold.
Gold seems robust to me, as long as the dollar doesn't. Horribly unpatriotic to bet against the dollar, but what can you do? I've written an article trying to make sense of the gold markets. Would appreciate feedback!
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