Are you looking?
Do you think you may "buy" this year?
Are you tempted to do some low-ball bidding, or go after a foreclosure?
Or if you're holding off until we've hit bottom - what year do you think that'll be?
Where you live, how much cheaper is it to rent than to "own" the same place?
Bottom line, when it comes to housing - whatcha thinkin?
(And tell us if you're a renter, "owner" or investor, and what town you're in)
January 23, 2008
With mortgage rates falling, and home prices drastically reduced from the peak, are you getting tempted to "buy" during this firesale?
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135 comments:
Prices have not begun to fall(relative to how far they will) in the Bay Area. We still have another 30 to 40% to go.
The housing market will start to find its bottom beginning in January of 2012 when the last of the resets are completed.
Why own when you can rent?
I'll be buying a year after we hit bottom.
With mortgage rates falling, and home prices drastically reduced from the peak, are you getting tempted to "buy" during this firesale?
Why? It's just started in Seattle. I'll wait.
I'm not buying for the foreseeable future. This financial disaster is just beginning. You think prices have dropped? We are still just walking off the peak. The floor has just been pulled out from under our feet.
Anyway I live in Brooklyn. In and around Manhattan things are still insane. I predict Manhattan and Brooklyn will experience some of the greatest price declines of this whole debacle.
A friend of mine just bought a house in Brooklyn. I was tempted to tell him to wait a couple years until the market starts to crash. However, anytime I've told people to wait I've been met with scorn so I didn't say anything.
Yes
As a result of yesterday, Bernanke has shown that he will do whatever its takes to prevent deflation in house prices.
Its now time to buy, just make sure you fix your interest rate.
AFTER that you can laugh at the looser renters, who will face increases in rent every year.
What do you think of todays stock market action?
Hoped you sold your gold and bought something useful - not even the Indians are buying as much gold as they use to, they have grown up and are buying stocks - BANG goes another gold bug argument.
New construction this fall should be a good time to buy. Land is dirt cheap, lumber is dirt cheap, luxury appliances are dirt etc etc.
Don't buy a foreclosure or resale this year under any circumstances!
buying my 1st home out right with no loan in late 2009 to early 2011 (a window of less than 18 months) might go down more than that, but hey who cares at that point for me.
Not buying. Renting is a way better deal unless you are in a bubble. No RE bubble for at least another 15 yrs.
no, why give up a $450 dollar apartment that includes all utilities and a garage?
Owner, San Antonio, TX, purchased in 2005. 30 yr fixed, no PMI, no 80/20, etc.
If I were back in OC in 2008, I would become a renter.
As for the owners that will "entertain offers between $1M and $1.25M," here is my offer for your entertainment: $150per sq. ft. with a yard - palooka.
I am going for a visit this summer and look forward to see all of the listings. I may even throw out a low-ball here and there.
If I can lowball and get a GREAT repo for under 200k in Riverside, CA. I would do it. But it would have to be a GREAT HOUSE.
My rent is very cheap but my living conditions are horrible (living at the inlaws!)
I would like to go way low and act like an ass when making my offer and take some of that power back.
I have been waiting a long time to get a place of my own. I have not made any (too many) stupid decsions and have my money saved ready to go. Now I just have to wait :(
I am Selling everything I own including my gold and guns.
I am buying Real Estate and Financials.
NOT!
:-D
Refi and a HELOC for me
I wanted to buy in 08, back in 06, then was thinking 09. Now I dont care any more. Ill buy when I cna just pay cash for a house I want which will probably be 2010-2011.
I'm looking. I'm getting tempted. Will most likely wait until '09. But I can now get a mortgage for 5.25% with 0 points and that is getting harder and harder to ignore.
At that rate my cost to rent vs. buy is break even.
I currently live in Lafayette, IN and rent a brand new 2br/2ba house for $1000/mo. This rent is probably 10% of the price of a home, pretty steep but we're only staying here for a short while.
Soon we're moving to Wisconsin, in the Milwaukee/Waukesha area, and have been pricing homes and apartments there. $800/mo will get you a decent 2br/2ba unit in a suburb apartment complex compared to ~$150k purchase and $2k taxes in a similar condo. Or you could buy a nice 3br/2.5ba house for $300k with $4k taxes or rent it for $2k or so.
Currently, we are leaning towards renting a 2br/2ba lake home for $1350, which would normally list for $500k with $6k or so in taxes. We'll sit on the lake this year, sipping margaritas, while the house prices crash.
There's nothing to take to the bank right now. People are aware the situation is deteriorating but they're hand-to-mouth for information. I think people just go to their jobs, come home, and don't really care about the value of their houses/stocks/CC-balance.
I think 2015 is the year where we will see 12 consecutive months of YoY uniform national home price increases that outpace inflation. It sounds bearish at first, but give me one well reasoned argument that it could happen sooner. If you say "Manhattan" I'm going to punch you in the face.
I am watching the Southwest Florida market very carefully. I'd like to get a condo a block off the beach in the south Naples or Marco area for the real value - about $150K.
So yes, once things come back to reality (more concerned about reality than getting the actual bottom) I will buy.
HELL YES I AM BUYING REAL ESTATE!!!
Who can pass up this deal?
"You know it’s a big week in New York when the General Motors Building goes on the block."
http://tinyurl.com/2vs53e
Already own, thinking about investing, but it doesn't make sense yet.
In DC burbs things are still moving slowly.
I can still rent for half the price of buying.
Won't start looking until it is cheaper to own.
Are you kidding? It is only the 2nd inning of the big deflation in housing prices.
That would be a hell. No.
I am a renter in Orlando. I own in KY. I am hoping (since I selling at 02 prices) to sell my house soon.
I will rent in Orlando - until the prices drop to the 02/03 levels.
Then I will be eager to buy as I really like being a homeowner. I love my new "rental" house but I can't do anything to it and I certainly can't make it more "me".
However, I am feeling blessed the rent in this house (the same house across street on market for 285k), Mine is renting for 1400 Per month.
DOW IS UP TODAY.
DOPES.
Listen to this story. The guy across the street owns his house is now buying a 700k house with a partner and the contractor is going to rent it back from them as a model house. The contractor is going to buy his house across from me to hold for a rental and to free up the guys credit history. Then he is also buying a new house in the 300k range, he was over here last night faxing some of the paperwork to the banks. He's approved and makes with his wife around 65k, I should also mention that they also bought a condo that they are finally renting at a loss. What gives, have anyone else seeing this going on??
I am a renter in Austin, TX where things are inflated but not tragically so. I managed to rent a house last year for just under $1,000 a month, or about $200 less than the mortgage payment (not counting insurance and taxes) on a similar house in the same neighborhood.
My wife and I are looking at buying some land and then starting to build in 2-3 years, when things have bottemed out and the builders would be desperate for any work.
You guys are not smart enough to pick a bottom in this mess.I think there are some good buys out there if you look hard enough. I will be buying this year. And for you renters is it nice to pay for the mortgage of your landlord?
No way.
I'm holding out for the long haul.
Danny
I got tempted last year. I saw a McMansion that was foreclosed over a $65k debt. I called the bag-holder (JP morgan) and offered to buy it for $70k in cash, but they seemed to think that was a bad move for them.
Too bad, that same street now has 5 more in foreclosure. They should have taken the money when they had the chance.
why would anyone buy now when they know rates will just keep going down?
As far as I can see there has been no price declines in any area of the surrounding counties around Philadelphia. People still think they are going to make a killing, even though the house has been for sale since 2006 or earlier in a lot of cases.
Current renter in Nova, outside DC.
Market here is kicked in the teeth & getting worse by the Month.
I'm hearing some fantastic deals in Foreclosures & Short sales. But I know that the big reset is coming this summer..
Will probably wait till '09 or 10 to buy back in. Would be knife catching till then. Sold my old house in '06 & renting in the mean time. Renting for 1/2 of what it would be to own, even now.
My Mortgage Broker pal says her contacts are telling her the rate will soon be at 4%....
And speaking of "deals"....
I always comment about how crazy prices are over on the west coast.
To give you a good idea, look what $399k will get you in one of Michigan's best neighborhoods...
http://tinyurl.com/3cq8ao
I'll be buying when the US dollar has hit parity with the Mexican peso.
In the meantime I'll be spending my gold bullion on realty whore hookers and buying blow from my ex-mortgage broker drug dealer friends.
I don't see a point in buying sense rents will continue to stay low. Also, I will need to stay flexible in case of employment reasons. Look, in this day and age it makes no sense to go into debt for something that requires such a commitment. I do not like being a debt slave.
I'll be buying when it is cheaper then renting.
I don't think that this has come close to playing out. I may try to buy something when prices are sane compared to rents, i.e. when my TCO is 10% lower than the rent for an equivalent property. That may be a while, though...
Lots of new listings going up on the MLS in Orange county...CA
And get this... most of them the people are not even realistic on the prices.
get a clue peolpe!!
it may look like it's cheaper to rent since when you rent you get 2 rooms, 2 closets, and a kitchen.
when you buy a house, you get 6,7 rooms, basement, attic, driveway,
porch, back yard, etc. how much would it be to rent a whole house vs buying it, that's the question.
of course, if you don't need all that, why buy when you can rent?
I live in San Francisco, and rent a 3 bedroom 1 3/4 bath townhome in a really good neighborhood for 3600/mo. My landlord paid 1.4 million for the 2 unit building and spent 500K on improvements. So to buy, yikes! I'm not sure the exact math, but we're talking, what 14K/mo? So I feel pretty good about renting.
Sales are slow here, but still moving...but in all but the best locations, prices are down some. I've seen some reductions, particularly on places on the low jumbo end. I've been thinking of making some really lowball offers (like 50% off or so) in an area I know better (I lived in Seattle for 10 years) and telling them to hang on to it and call me if it starts to sound good.
I'm thinking the housing market will play out over the same period of time as the one in the mid to late 80's, around 5 years, but I think it will come back to a flat market for a while. I think this is going to be a huge hit to the overall economy, and will take, maybe 10-15 years to start an upward trend.
Waiting until springtime in OC.
Many of the sf homes that were 80 to 120 days on the market were taken off the market months ago. They'll soon be back on and inventories should rise a little bit in some communities here.
The sf prices are still way too high, IMO. And the qualified buyers? Yeah, like they're really crawling out of the woodwork. The median income is $75,000/yr, so when you price a 3 bed 2.5 bath home at $500,000 or more, people begin to doubt...
I'm always willing to offer a low-ball bid if the opportunity comes up. However, my definition of low-ball normally involves a price that is well below what most sellers would consider obscenely insulting.
250 point late day rally ??? I guess DOPES has stepped into the breach and bought up all those shares to spark a late day buying rally - next stop - Dow 36,000! Yahoo!
Temptations like this is why I signed a 2 year lease with an option to extend for a 3rd year.
It all sounds good (low rates, lower prices), but then you go to a homebuilder's site office or talk to an agent and you get the same lame BS like your just another GF.
Merrill Lynch is calling for another 25-30% drop over the next 2-3 years. Good old Larry Yun from Realtwhores-R-US is refuting this saying 08 will be stable & 09 will be rebound. I'm going with Merrill's prediction, and build equity as I continue to rent and watch prices drop and simultaneously continue to save for the day when owning is cheaper that renting.
I will buy when (and only when!) renting costs more than owning. Home prices need to drop about 15-20% more for that to happen here in the Boston area.
I think it will take another 2 years for it to happen.
I'll buy investment property at somewhere between 33 and 40 percent of peak valuation. Some builder haircuts are getting close (within 10-20%) to tempting this knife catcher.
Prices of condos in Destin, FL where I'd love to own a condo have come down dramatically already - some have been reduced as much as 40%. The cost to buy one (mortgage/insurance/taxes/condo fees) are still more than the potential vacation rental income (which is what I plan to do with the condo if/when I buy it) .... so I still have some time to wait. But if the trend in falling prices in this area continues as it has for the last year or so, then some late this year or possibly next year will be the time where buy costs are equal to or less than rental income.
I live in Prince William County, Va. DC metro area.
My answer Keith;
NEVER EVER AGAIN!
Buahahahhahahaha!
Where is the crash? Dow up 280pts.
Don't do it.Build your own home instead,or General contract it yourself.Let all these houses get down to 1989 prices.
No, but I'm thinking of re-fi'ing at lower and lower rates. 4.75% 15-year fixed, conforming, looks attractive. The house and the debt are an intergral part of my hedging strategy. A tangible asset like a house that ensures your biggest monthly expense is fixed is a real help during inflationary times. Debt at a low fixed rate is a great hedge against a declining dollar, since you pay it back in cheaper dollars.
Don't count on buying the inner bay area at 30% off. These low rates and a likely bump in the conforming limit to $625k, coupled with a continuing robust job market, should keep a floor under prices. With oil retreating, at least for a while, the fed has cover to keep lowering rates without triggering worries about chronic inflation setting in and therefore higher long-term rates that are not within their control.
Alt-A, Pick-A-Payment resets coming up over the next two years......buy now? F-that!
Wheres Dopes? His dead cat bounce is all over the drudgereport!
HAHAHAHA
.
.
.
DOW UP 300 Points
.
.
.
GAINS ALMOST 700 POINTS FROM IS LOW
.
.
.
DOPES!!!
Most stock markets have corrected 15-20% in less than 6 months. Over leveraged $*%@-boxes are considered a deal if the seller knocks 5% of their fantasy price. Forget it debt slaves, stocks offer a better return on my money for the next 10-20 years.
Just wanted to bring this to your attention, as I haven't seen it discussed much on most of the real estate blogs:
Excerpt:
A US Federal Judge, C.A. Boyko in Federal District Court in Cleveland Ohio ruled to dismiss a claim by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. DB’s US subsidiary was seeking to take possession of 14 homes from Cleveland residents living in them, in order to claim the assets.
Here comes the hair in the soup. The Judge asked DB to show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not... produce the actual mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta of not longer.
Again why could Deutsche Bank not show the 14 mortgages on the 14 homes? Because they live in the exotic new world of “global securitization”...
Indeed the profits being earned in the past seven years by the world’s largest financial players...were so staggering, few bothered to open the risk models used by the professionals who bundled the mortgages...
The Ohio ruling that dismissed DB’s claim to foreclose and take back the 14 homes for non-payment, is far more than bad luck for the bank of Josef Ackermann. It is an earth-shaking precedent for all banks holding what they had thought were collateral in form of real estate property...
Here's an excellent series of articles on this subject:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7413
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0801/S00199.htm
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0801/S00200.htm
"AFTER that you can laugh at the looser renters, who will face increases in rent every year."
Yes, all you renters, take advice from me the big LOSER who cannot spell LOSER.
HAHAHAHA- douche
"And for you renters is it nice to pay for the mortgage of your landlord?"
I'm paying $450 a month and that includes heat and a garage; I priced a condo of the same size and it would have cost me $1500 so I get to put $13,000 a year in the bank! and probably more since I won't have a big "new furnature bill" or "lawn mower" bill.
Anonymous 8:50 said...
it may look like it's cheaper to rent since when you rent you get 2 rooms, 2 closets, and a kitchen.
when you buy a house, you get 6,7 rooms, basement, attic, driveway,
porch, back yard, etc. how much would it be to rent a whole house vs buying it, that's the question.
of course, if you don't need all that, why buy when you can rent?
Based on who's information professor? Not all renters live in apartments, or haven't you noticed all the formerly "for sale" homes for rent now? I rent and have a house with 4 brds, 2.5 baths, 2500 sq ft, 2+ car garage, porch, back yard, attic, driveway at about 60% of what it would cost me each month to buy.
But you know, if you want to pay more . . .
Ha, ha, funny. But I am thinking of refinancing. Although we already got a 5.25% 20 year fixed rate loan nearly 5 years ago, maybe we will consider getting a new 15 year loan with new lower rate and wipe out our small HELOC balance. Since we bought in Orange County in Jan 1998 we have tons of equity.
Keefer,
Interest rates don't matter. You can only buy a house if you don't have one to sell, have a down-payment, and have a half assed decent credit score...
That knocks out any rally for the NAR...
http://dinkytown.net/java/MortgageRentvsBuy.html
this is a pretty good little calculator that i use.
My wife and i have basically decided a size, area, amenities etc, house we would like to buy, and the monthly payment we would be willing to pay for it. That is our static variable.
Once the dynamic variables such as home prices and 30yr fixed rates meet our desires, we will buy. looking like end of 2009 or 2010 probably.
stacking up a down payment in the meantime.
SuZANNE Said:
" Anonymous said...
it may look like it's cheaper to rent since when you rent you get 2 rooms, 2 closets, and a kitchen.
when you buy a house, you get 6,7 rooms, basement, attic, driveway,
porch, back yard, etc. how much would it be to rent a whole house vs buying it, that's the question.
of course, if you don't need all that, why buy when you can rent?
January 23, 2008 8:50 PM"
YOU CAN DO IT! BUY NOW! SUZANNE WILL HELP YOU.
Get Professional Help.
I want to buy now but I know I'd be a fool so I'm waiting. I think we also are going to see another 30%-40% slide away, but over an uncomfortably long period of time. I live on the central coast of California. I'm seeing a 'Japan' model implosion, very sticky, a slow painful ride. Americans are for the most part delusional people and the majority have grown up in a very stable economy and now its beginning to bite more than it should. I don't believe many people understand that the coming impact might very well lay the global economy so low, real recovery won't be likely in my lifetime, unless war becomes our economy. It's like flying on thermal winds, once you come down, it's a long way back up, when all we have left to sell is the Military.
There won't be a bottom per se, and forget any bounce, dead or otherwise, a rotten egg when it hits the wall doesn't bounce, most of it just settles. I would buy to early if the criteria were just cost, it's not, so I don't see holding off for more than two or three years.
"AFTER that you can laugh at the looser renters, who will face increases in rent every year."
Yes, all you renters, take advice from me the big LOSER who cannot spell LOSER.
Nah, anon. S/he was just calling you a bunch of sluts. ;)
PPT working overtime today.....
We're pretty much decided to "buy" in 2009. We probably won't have hit bottom by then but there will be massive price drops as the summer 2008 mortgage resets hit in a big tsunami.
Right now we rent in Newport Beach CA where the average rent on a house that sold for well over a million at the peak is now around $3,000.
We're moving when our lease expires next month because our landlords have admitted that their mortgage reset, they know they can't sell the house at any price, and they're f*cked.
When we moved here last year, the houses we really wanted to rent were going for around $4,500, now they're going for about $3,500 so we'll be moving into one of those.
While looking at properties we have been requesting credit checks on the landlords and also pulling up the mortgage records from the county recorder to make sure they are solvent and won't be foreclosed. Most landlords are so desperate to rent that they willingly comply.
This gets more fun by the day!!! But, in the end, I'd rather have my own place so I can remodel, get a dog, etc., so we'll do that next year. For now, these prices are still way overvalued. Yes, next year won't be the bottom yet, but we're at a point where we've had it with renting and dealing with landlords so we're willing to take that chance.
Besides, when I buy a house, it will be a place to live long-term, not a lottery ticket like the fliptards have been using them. So who cares if it drops a bit more.
Not yet ... waiting for when interest rates are zero and even the government admits inflation is out of control. Then I pile up on large fixed long term debt.
Are you looking?
Nope, everyone in this country is so much richer than I am. [/sarcasm]
I quit looking.
I don't know WHAT to think anymore, to be honest.
But one thing I DO know is that a 700 point swing in the DOW today, from -300 to +300 isn't healthy.
I'm investing all I have in the only things America can still make better than the rest of the world;
Weapons and Porn
Over-bought markets over-correct when they retreat.
I would buy the house I sold at the top in September 2005; when it it gets to the price I paid for it in 2000.
Thats what it is worth based on the rent the investor who bought it is getting.
Not getting tempted to buy, but am watching those interest rates for a refi. Some are dipping below 5% for an ARM, so hopefully the fixed ones will follow soon.
i shag realtors sed:
You guys are not smart enough to pick a bottom in this mess.I think there are some good buys out there if you look hard enough. I will be buying this year. And for you renters is it nice to pay for the mortgage of your landlord?
Well, where I live I am only paying for part of the mortgage. So, I'm quite happy renting. Purchasing RE is an investment like any other. It has its associated risks, price movements, unexpected maintenance, etc. Renting has only the risk of inflation. So, given that, I would expect that RE prices should reflect a bit of a risk premium to offset the higher risks. Which means that the carrying costs of a building should be substantially lower than the rental income. I just don't see that around here, so I'm perfectly happy having someone else assume the risks and negative ROI for me.
Renting in San Diego. I recently moved for work and considered jobs in Boston, San Francisco, DC area and NJ before deciding on SD. We wanted to buy. Of all of these markets, however, San Diego had the biggest disconnect between renting and buying. We looked at a rental on craigslist for $2800/mth, when I researched it I discovered it had been purchased in 2006 for $1.3 million. The owner must have dropped his calculator in his kool aid if he thinks that makes financial sense. We ended up in a condo with a free month rent still paying less than REOs are priced at in the same complex (and much less than those for sale by the "owner"). We go to openhouses as we investigate different neighborhoods, we'll buy when the cost makes sense versus renting (whenever that might be). These are strange times....
anonymous sed:
Buahahahhahahaha!
Where is the crash? Dow up 280pts.
Uh, have you actually looked at the chart for the last year at all?
Yes, the market didn't crash more
today, but its performance so far this year has been far from stellar. And, in fact, it's down from 1 year ago too. It's called a ``market correction''.
Renting should be more expensive. When you buy you pay all this rent upfront (down payment) you have to pay the taxes and maintain it. Oh, you also have to pay closing costs, some transfer tax and pay a Realtor to sell it.
Ive own 3 houses in my life, and believe me when you pencil all the costs out, I would have been way better off renting.
I was in Palm Springs several new condo projects had not all sold out but had resales, the developer was using them as model homes. Why?
Because he doesn't want them to FORECLOSE before he sells the rest of HIS units. He was giving you all sorts of incentives to buy his remaining units but no money off.. He said "Don't buy these resales I can undercut them." When they are all sold these will foreclose and the comps may be HALF. BEWARE!
I'm buying when the CAP RATE makes sense and way after the MASSIVE LAYOFFS that are about to start.
I'm curious to watch the stock and housing markets after unemployment rate reaches 8%.
Todays rally was PPT, don't be fooled and take this opportunity to sell.
I live in Phoenix, and currently rent a large 2 bedroom apartment for 700/month. There is no way at this point, that you can buy for that price. I'm going to sit back and wait this out and see what happens. Honestly, i don't know what to think at this point. However i'm not going to bet on my good credit that we've come anywhere near the bottom yet. If i could find a nice home in a good neighborhood for around the 100-120k mark, then i would consider.
Better wait and see what happens after Iran becomes best friends with Isreal.......NOT GOING TO HAPPEN... read the good book and I think I'll wait to see if amazing things are coming. Good luck
I will wait and see. Meanwhile, I will write songs about it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivp4YqGCI-s
Bubble? What bubble?
Dow is up 300!!!
Booya HPers!!
Bush is going to bomb some A-rabs in Iran!!!
Booya sand niggers!!
Bush is sending me a fat tax rebate!!
Booya!! Flatscreen TV here I come!!
Superbowl next weekend!!
Booya Patriots!!
DOPES!!
I have been lurking here and started looking at patrick.net for over 2 years now. So I finally decided to post my first post. I almost bought back in 05 when I thought that I was crazy and missing the train and found patrick.net and then housingpanic which told me I am still sane and people are crazy for buying these homes. I currently own and looking at a forclosure that I am trying to get for 50% off the peak price but still thinking that even that is not low enough. I did some valuation based on sqft and the price I am offering is equivilant to 1988 prices, I don't think it will be accepted but what do you all think.
E34 in Nova
Nothing could be more pathetic than every single total douche on here that comes out with a: DOW UP 300 WHO'S YOUR DADDY NOW BITCHES??
What the market does on any given day, week or even month really does not matter too much right now. But if you come to me in August and the Dow is 14000+, then you can rub it in. But it won't be. And you are pathetic, and I hope idiots like you lose their shirt and the shirt of their mom when the market takes it's enevitable plunge (and of course, you will sell at the bottom, when your pee pee finally sucks back into your arrogant and flabby little body).
So, like I said, talk to me in August, dumb dumb.
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Read it and weep morons.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MBI&t=5d
Oh no the end of bond insurance is here. Yeah right. Enjoy the 4% no scratch that 3% CDs losers.
Mid Hudson Valley, NY
A house that went for $130k in 2001
Asking price in 06 was $420k
Reduced price is now $399k
This cannot be called ‘drastically reduced’
It’s a JOKE!
Asking prices have to fall 50% from were they are now,
for inventory to begin moving.
Land parcels in this area, are in even worse shape.
Example: 1 acre lots in this area need to fall about 90% off current asking prices for them to begin moving.
Keith said
"...home prices drastically reduced from peack..."
Hell NO. NOT in Los Angeles. Prices here are still waaay out of proportion to income. You still have two bedroom shithouses selling for half a million.
I really am starting to wonder if prices here will ever really come down.
JuiceMan said...
I don't know WHAT to think anymore, to be honest.
But one thing I DO know is that a 700 point swing in the DOW today, from -300 to +300 isn't healthy.
January 23, 2008 10:47 PM
------
What I think is that you failed 3rd grade math. -300 to +300 is not 700 Einstein.
12:09 is starting to face reality. good for you. prices are coming down in the shitholes like Detroit, Las Vegas, Phoenix. LA, San Fran, NY...you know real cities, are holding their values and even gaining.
Buying a short sale, price back to normal after taking into account for inflation and rent for area. About 125K original asking price. It has been interesting to look at houses of late, a lot of nice flipper homes going for cheap with sellers getting desperate. I would wait them out to 2002 prices but I already found a good deal.
Sure, it sound like a good idea to me. Why not let the rest of the world act like dummies and let us great americans print easy money out of thin air while we rape and pillage their fields and make them work in factories like dogs to satisfy our greed. But don't tell them that they are asleep they might wake up. Thanks again and party party like it's 1999.
I bought in northern California in 2003 for a great price...had to remodel and wrap a HELOC into fixed in 2005 so I am about $200 over rental prices. I plan to refi here soon into another fixed to get me back BELOW rental costs...just waiting for Ben to pull another drop along with the rush to bonds...rates were GREAT today
The fat lady is just warming up.
Keith, where is this market crash you and others have predicted? I am renting and waiting for prices to be sane again. It is very frustrating. Back in 2005 I was about to buy and I did some due diligence online. I found several "housing bubble" websites. If it weren't for websites like yours I would have made a very bad mistake (to think of it, I was going to buy a 1900 square foot house for 799K). So thank you.
Now, the housing market in Chicago still hasn't crashed yet. In 2005 people were asking for 799K for a 1900 square foot house. Today, that same house is selling for 749K so I would not exactly call it a crash. At the same time, there are TONS OF HOUSES for sale. So I am renting a one bedroom house in Chicago with my wife. We are waiting for a major housing correction. My only fear is that this long anticipated housing correction may not happen with the government coming up with all sorts of bail out programs.
Renting and looking in Kansas City. A house that rents for $850 with a neighbor selling for 210K isn't drastically overpriced I suppose, but the inventory OH MY. Empty houses everywhere. New Construction is cheap, not as much if the bank has it listed though. They've flooded the market with land, recently and at ridiculous prices. Existing home prices have came down very little since I've been here, (10/06)they call a 2% price drop a drastic reduction! I'm thinkin it would be a HUGE MISTAKE to buy here now! (husband disagrees, he likes Kudlow AND Cramer, thinks I don't want to buy here because I hate it here, which I do, he wants to buy now) All the best
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Read it and weep morons.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MBI&t=5d
Oh no the end of bond insurance is here. Yeah right. Enjoy the 4% no scratch that 3% CDs losers.
Try 6 months instead of 5 days :
http://tinyurl.com/377o82
I'm in downtown DC; bought a 2BR condo in the middle of the winter Feb 2002 and sold it May 2007 for $500/sqft.
Pricing haven't really come down all that much in downtown I think, although sales are slow.
I'm renting a newer, sunnier, 25% larger condo in another just-as-good downtown neighborhood and closer to the subway, for about 2/3rds what my overall monthly ownership cost was (partly because I'm now sharing costs with a companion).
Meanwhile I'm making several hundred a month on most of the house money in a "safe" money market fund, and so far another several hundred more a month on average in GLD gold shares with the rest.
Ask me again if I'm eager to jump back in to owning LOL!
I want to see where things are in August after the biggest mortgage reset hump is past, and next winter in the seasonal dead time of the market. If prices are really rolling downward I'll check again winter 2009/10.
If prices in DC haven't started down by August, I'll be watching but not necessarily active looking, at nearby VA suburbs or other less expensive US cities.
Overall I'll be watching for $400/sqft or less in DC, and price-to-rent ratios here or anywhere to be WELL down from where they've been.
In some areas I think rents may come down too, which may add pressure to home prices.
Sorry, but all those who think prices in New York City are going up are simply incorrect. Yes, the median may be going up but individual house prices are going down. The median can go up when all house prices go down whenever the number of houses sold declines. Why? Because most of the houses that are not selling are the lower end ones. Because of the way the statistical median is calculated it looks as though the median is still going up even when the remaining houses are being sold for less than they sold the year before.
If you don't understand what I'm saying, Google "statistical median" and read up on how it's calculated. You'll figure it out. Unfortunately, it's difficult to get a complete listing of individual house prices so the real analysis can be done.
i'll start looking this fall to see what's out there. i also want to wait to hear what's going on with option arms and alt-a's that are resetting in 2009 and by the fall there should be talk of it. i don't think one needs to buy for at least the next few years though.
I don't buy real estate... but I do invest in bonds/stock.
I've been considering jumping back in the market now that the Fed is giving away free money.
I'm looking for muni's backed by AMBAC since the goverment probably won't let them fail. Fitch downgraded them yesterday, so yeilds might pick up.
Also, since the US is going to be baking Jumbo's any day, TMA looks good. (It's up 17% today alone!) TMA-F, 10% perfered stock is still yeilding ~12%. I need to read the prospectus and conpare... maybe the E or C class is better.
ROTFLMAO!
Listen up folks. Bush and Congress may use your tax dollars to bail out the builders and banks via the "stimulus package".
Didn't Hannity just say that this was a free market society? LOL. Privitize the gains, socialize the losses!
http://tinyurl.com/2nq2uw
Builders, Banks Could Get Tax Break
Wednesday January 23, 4:54 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Banks, Homebuilders, Others Could Get Fattened Tax Refunds Under Stimulus-Plan Provision
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. homebuilders, lenders and other struggling companies could receive hefty one-time tax refunds this year and next under a provision of the economic stimulus plan percolating in Washington.
Anyone buying now is catching a falling knife...but lets just assume I (and Merrill) are wrong. Since we are conservatively down about 10% YOY right now, what are you risking if you wait this year(2008) out. 5% appreciation? Do you really think the market is going to stop going down 10% YOY, go flat, then increase more than 5% all in the next year? So your payment will be 5% higher if that happens. Big deal. Instead of paying 1500 you will pay 1575. On the other hand, if I am right and the market goes down 10% again this year, you are screwed. Lets assume you put 20% down. A 10% decrease in value has lost you half of your equity. If the market goes down 20% you have lost it all, and if you had a smaller down payment you are bankrupt.
Risk management folks. Be patient. Lets see at least a quarter or two of rising prices before we think its a good time to buy.
Not withstanding the fact you can still rent for much less than it costs to own almost everywhere. So you are going to pay more money per month to speculate that its a good time to buy?? USE YOUR BRAIN.
Live in NoVA and have just signed a lease for another year to try to ride this out.
Looking at houses in the meantime, but prices for what we are looking at are still in the 600K range! They aren't worth that now and they REALLY wont be worth that in another year!!
Who knows what other temporary tricks the Fed may have up it's sleeve, but they can't keep the inventory from piling up!! Prices are still too high, so for now, we say NO DEAL!!
I live in the Boston area. No, I'm not tempted to buy in yet. The price reductions are just beginning.
Let's see, the arm resets are peaking this spring; it will take a few months for most to begin to default; it takes about a year for a property to work it's way through the foreclosure process and come back up for sale. That takes us to fall 2009. Give it another year after that for everyone to realize prices are not coming back.
I won't even think about buying until fall of 2010, but really there will be no rush at that point since it will be much longer before prices rise in any meaningfull way.
Fall of 2010 may not be the bottom but most of the losses will likely have occurred by then.
Renting an $800K (probably lower now) townhome half mile to the beach in Del Mar, CA for $1,950 per month.
Why would I buy, especially since it looks like rents will be going down.
Don't invest in anything long term. If you are Christian and know your bible, you know Damascus will soon be nuked (Isaiah 17) with Russia and Iran leading the Gog/Magog war (Ezekiel 38-39) against Israel soon thereafter before the Great Tribulation (7 years) begins and the second coming. Accept Christ before it's too late. Eternity in hell is a long time.
Agree--
The Fed's rate cuts are worthless...they might shut Wall St. up for a day, but they cannot stop the coming tsunami of defaults from happening.
This is all such a sickening chirade....Our key policy makers think only of making their Wall St. cronies happy temporarily at the expense of the long term financial health of our country. Same old thing--buy now, pay later, or hell--dont pay at all!! If I were a current presidential candidiate, I would be raising the roof right now, because they are going to inherit this rotting heap of garbage.
Bush only wants to pacify the masses until he is on a lifeboat on his way out!! God Bernanke, GROW SOME FUC#$ING NADS and stand up to your MORON of a Slave Master. Show us what that PH.D is really worth!!!!
ARRRRRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Fresno CA
Cost to Rent 3bd 2ba: $1100-1200
Cost to Buy same house: $250,000-$275,000
Still renting, and proud of it.
I'm currently renting a furnished 3 year old 2300 square foot oceanfront condo in Daytona Beach for $2300/mo including utilities. The owner paid over $750,000 for it. With taxes, common charges and other expenses he is losing $2000 - $3000 per month and is underwater by $350,000 - $400,000. I'll be renting this or one of the literally 1000's of rental homes and condos that are available in Florida for about 1/2 the cost of owning until...who knows
Las Vegas:
I'm renting a $380k house for $1750/mo. and I will keep renting it until I can buy the same house with the rent payment.
Bought in 92 for 93k..1500 sf+5 acres in Bend, OR. yet another hot overbuilt tourist town. median is now 350k and though the sales are off 30+% YOY the prices haven't yet dropped.. lots of foreclosers and short sales. Used to love the town..now tooo many Cali's. Hope for a huge recession and all the past 10 years worth of folks leave.
Am in cash, ammo, booze, tp and RE. RE is the loser. I sell it not own other than the home place. Retiring now. Not buying gold..laddered CD's,MMA's and Pepsi. Silver in the box at the bank. Always lived cheap...no debt. Yahoooo. Hope I make it.
Enough?
Well, NAR says...
Housing prices to free fall in 2008
By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.
"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
...
Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2008 1:43 p.m. EST
Think there’s too many houses for sale now? Just wait.
A new study by a professor at the University of Southern California details what is being called the "generational housing bubble.”
According to the findings of the report, detailed in The Economist, as the country’s 78 million baby-boomers retire the housing market will change "dramatically.”
For the last 30 years, baby-boomers have been a major catalyst for rising real estate values — they bought larger homes and even second, vacation homes.
Now many of those baby-boomers are preparing to retire. On average, they have sold more homes than they bought in recent years, according to survey data.
As millions of them retire and, frankly, the oldest of them begin to die, the question becomes: Will the far smaller younger generations be able to buy all the homes on the market?
Young adults make up the bulk of traditional home buyers — most purchase homes when they reach their early 30s, the survey shows.
But a huge number of elderly people may lead to a drawn-out buyers’ market. Prices may fall further as younger people, perceiving a downturn, delay purchasing, the survey’s author reported.
William Frey of the Brookings Institution think-tank said the impact will vary across the U.S. He noted that the "mismatch between buyers and sellers may be most pronounced in the rustbelt part of the country, where the populations of young people and immigrants are slowly rising, if at all.”
There may likely be other outcomes. Suburbs, for example, which grew with the baby-boomer population, could begin to decline. If the building industry contracts, too, home prices could remain stable.
Developers could also opt to switch to serving the senior population by building more compact housing near amenities. Towns could make efforts to attract immigrants.
Whatever the outcomes, Myers stressed that this transition in the housing market will be extended over a long period — the youngest baby-boomers won’t turn 64 until 2029.
At the current rate of decline, we won't be back to the historic trend until 2010.
We have a long way to go.
"Keith said
"...home prices drastically reduced from peack..."
Hell NO. NOT in Los Angeles. Prices here are still waaay out of proportion to income. You still have two bedroom shithouses selling for half a million.
I really am starting to wonder if prices here will ever really come down."
LA was down 10.5% YoY in 2007. You're not going to hit bottom overnight. Just go to doctorhousingbubble.com to see how fucked Cali is.
"LA, San Fran, NY...you know real cities, are holding their values and even gaining."
Hehe no, they're just filled with people that think their city is special. They'll be kicking and screaming the entire time, but prices are going to crash there too.
maybe not the place for this sarcasm, but did that "humanoid" they filmed walking on mars that they premiered last week try to eat the rabbit sized mars rover lander? "someone left the cake out in the rain"
how does the boiled "marrow" of a martian lander taste?
I may refi my mortgage, because the rates are so low, but no purchases planned yet.
Not sure when it will be a "good time to buy" as the home prices are nowhere near cashflow here in Orange County, CA.
Credit rating? What is this crap? It is all a joke, people should reject it and say "credit, I don't need no stinking credit." Only buy if you can pay all cash, then watch inflation dissolve. We bought into the game, the corporations created the game. Stop buying!
it's simply a matter of supply and demand vs cost to carry. with the mortgage market much tighter now and other investments looking far less risky then real estate will have to keep going down in price until there is demand. i'm in huntington beach, orange county and the prices are still 3x the rent. it's only gets more obvious each day as more foreclosures and more layoffs and more for sale signs THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEMAND! SO WERE FAR FROM BOTTOM!
sure you could get a foreclosure in riverside for under 200K(which if you wait long enough it will be 115K but remember your then stuck in riverside which equals no demand!
you might get that SoCal repo housedeal of a lifetime but what if they decide to begin to add huge property tax increases to shore up all the lost revenue for municipalities etc. there gonna extract the money from someone and you know they always stick it to the middle class. Just look at Portland, Or the huge school taxes for property owners, or say texas or florida with insurance increases. lets not forget all those HOA's who will be feeling the pinch from all those lost dues more increases. buyer beware!
I want to buy now but I know I'd be a fool so I'm waiting. I think we also are going to see another 30%-40% slide away, but over an uncomfortably long period of time. I live on the central coast of California. I'm seeing a 'Japan' model implosion,
On your 74th birthday, you can pat yourself on the back for having waited out the bubble and finally getting a fair price, is that the plan? Life is short - live a little - if you want to own a house, buy one, it's only paper anyway and you can't take it with you.
The real DOPES sends his regards to his long-time HP'er friends.
Unfortunately he was slightly over-leveraged in the stock market and got taken out. I guess you could say he was the Casey Serin of Wall Street.
Anyway RoadRunner cut off his internet service on the 15th, so I'm posting this message for him.
Hell NO. NOT in Los Angeles. Prices here are still waaay out of proportion to income. You still have two bedroom shithouses selling for half a million.
I really am starting to wonder if prices here will ever really come down.
Hmm, I'm in Newport Beach where I can see downtown LA on a clear day just 40 miles away, and prices are crashing *HARD* here.
Accept Christ before it's too late. Eternity in hell is a long time.
Wow, Mike Huckabee is posting here as an anon. I'm impressed!!
RE: Bernanke
CNBC and the right wing is screaming at him for cutting too little. You nutjobs on the left scream at him for cutting too much.
Which leads me to believe he is doing just what should be done. When you equally piss off the left and the right it means you're on the right track.
Plan to buy in 2012 after all of the ARMs reset. May buy earlier if general price inflation takes place, but no earlier than 2009. Sold the old house in 2005 so I'll pay all cash.
I bought in northern California in 2003 for a great price...had to remodel and wrap a HELOC into fixed in 2005 so I am about $200 over rental prices. I plan to refi here soon into another fixed to get me back BELOW rental costs...just waiting for Ben to pull another drop along with the rush to bonds...rates were GREAT today
Yeah, the only problem is that you spend 90% of your time in a car, behind 10 million illegals on the freeway. Enjoy the next superquake. But California is different, right?
Plan to buy in 2012 after all of the ARMs reset. May buy earlier if general price inflation takes place, but no earlier than 2009.
If you're planning to buy in 2012, buy it after December 21 because you'll get it pretty much for free.
will buy when it does not distress my meager savings, and only for cash, yet has at least a taste of quality, come closer last week, missed by a few bricks and a few blocks even with its complete remodel
Renting in NoVA (Northern Virgina/DC metro) 1BR for $1K pm utilities included.
Prices are sticky (mostly seller stubborness) but there are some short sales and even outright desperate sellers out on the market for about the price we rent.
I don't think this means RE prices are reasonable so much as rental prices are artifically high.
In the denial/acceptance/hope curve, NoVA is still firmly in denial but is edging over slowly to anger and panic. Condo projects are continuing because of contracts as well as city and county governments needing the revenue (which is collapsing as property values plummet. Lather, rinse, repeat.)
I get the feeling I'm not alone in refusing to pull the trigger since I see many properties with "for sale" signs in front of them for months and now even years. It's a big game of chicken and the buyers are not going to flinch...
When you buy, you are just throwing your money away.
don't buy, prices are coming down
inflation will tempt many to buy (thinking it will eat away my debt), but after inflation come high interest rates. So if you didn't time it perfectly (read: you certainly didn't), you will be in the hole again.
Go out, see sunshine, and don't fall in debt.
American dream is over. American life is up. Time to stop dreaming (it's too damn expensive and stressful) and start living.
I bought a condo in 1990 in what was then a nice community called Aliso Viejo. The foreclosures of '94 brought in a certain element that began to ruin the neighborhoods - but it was still overall a nice area. I saw this debacle coming a little over a year ago and finally was able to sell at $100K off original list. Never cashed any $$ out over the 16years of ownership & was on a 15 yr, equity accelerator program at 5.26%. Now the cash is parked in a 7 month CD at 5.13%, just drawing interest. We're still seeing denial prices in the communities I'm considering buying in - Newport Coast; Turtle Ridge, and some areas of Irvine. The properties I've had on my 'Watch List' for about the past year have either withdrawn from the market, or have come down from the $880 - 900K range anywhere from $60 - $100K -- not much. so they sit, as the DOM inceases, along with inventory. I'm still not budging & am leasing for the next couple of years until sellers become more realistic. Aliso Viejo is now a 'lower end' community - high, high inventory; high foreclosure rates, very noticeable blight and decay setting into many neighborhoods. AV is one gigantic master planned community -- all HOAs, inc. + the town itself is an HOA. Alot of the neighborhoods are having severe issues with non-payment of HOA fees by homeowners; which leads to more decay & blight, which leads to vacant homes, which leads to more decay & blight....I'm SO glad I was fortunate to get out! There's a steady exodus amongst those who began to see certain signs. And as for the more desirable communities, it'll probably take another 1-2 years of continuing hardship until they cry uncle.
I need to buy--my family is already too big for our tiny apartment. My big concern right now is Washington passing an economic "stimulus" plan that will keep housing prices artificially high.
Massachusetts is still historically overpriced even though we rank 49th in the U.S. in job growth. I wouldn't call these conditions conducive to a firesale just yet--not even close. I'm just looking for historically normal price to income ratio.
I love you guys, this is one of my favorite website, but I am loosing faith in some you because now it seems that you are also behaving the same way the other sheeps were when they were buying without using their brains. You have to remember that the most money has been made when there is blood in the street.
I have been waiting for this time for so long because it is now my time to shine. I love the fact that things are the way they are and Housing Panic points it out on a daily bases. This gives me the ability to buy properties on a short sale bases from the lenders at discounts as far as 50 cents on the dollar from their current market value, not the mortgage balance, but their current market value. Buying at these prices protects me from a further market decline so I do not have to wait for prices to go down even further. I can buy right now and if things get even worse, I can get even better discounts because the lenders know that if they do not sell me their trouble properties now and stop their financial bleeding, 6 months from now their current losses are going to be nothing compared to the future.
Trying to time any market, especially real estate is impossible because by the time you think we have reach the bottom it is actually too late. Even if I was interested in buying to live in I would always go after short sales with decent discounts so that as the values continue to decrease and I can make the payment, I can care less because I do not become a knife catcher.
This is the time to for the value investor to rip the benefits out of this market. We can buy way below market value via short sales and create a gap for future decreases and be protected. And as long as we go for the long haul; we make sure that we have positive cash flow and not be a Casey Serin investor; we can see ourselves increasing our net worth significantly when the market comes back. Furthermore, those properties that we bought at 50, 60 cents on the dollar today, 10 years from now would seen that we actually bought them for even bigger discounts.
Keep the flood for adjustable time bombs exploding, $30 billion every month for the rest of 2008, I am waiting with my arms wide hope!
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