January 14, 2008

I love comments like these. Just shows we have a long, long, long way to go...

There are a few areas in the US that haven't crashed horrifically yet - big finance money centers like Chicago, Seattle and Manhattan especially. I'm not sure why these areas feel they're immune. The funding has dried up everywhere. Inventory is building everywhere. Jobs will be lost everywhere. No area will be immune. Some will fare better than others, but every city will fall.

And when you see things like this today, you know that even these "special areas" are about to get punked soon too. Even if they think they have 21 reasons why they won't fall.

Here's the troll view from Chicago. Too bad this poster is Anon - it's much more fun when we can go back a year later and mock them..

"You are a fool Keith for thinking that real estate prices will crash. Here in Chicago's North Side, prices are doing well thank you very much.

Yes, it is true that there are lots of properties for sale, and inventory is high, but prices are not crashing. I repeat: PRICES ARE NOT CRASHING. In the end, homes are selling but it is taking longer to sell and people are knocking off 10K to 30K not exactly a CRASH Keith.

So keep dreaming Keith about a real estate crash."


Anonymous said...

These inmates should not be allowed to send e-mails. OK to read internet, but don't allow retarded people to comment.

If the drugs are not working, increase the dosage...

Anonymous said...

Well we all the saying about opinions. By the way, I saw a two hour long infomercial on buying gold this weekend. It was all over the weekend broadcasts here in Charlotte NC. It featured a tray of gold coins with a shill hawking that if you bought them now, they could be worth 160,000.00 in a couple of months to years, With a bank security guard parading a case of cash. Is this the beginning of the end of the gold runup. it was very similar to those late night shills on real estate. Must have been directed by the same team. I think an investment firm should track infomercial advice and correlate it to run-ups in investments. It is the old shoe shine boy warning for sure.

Edgar said...

I actually enjoy people paying insane prices, they pay five times the property tax I do. I eat steak and lobster, they shiver in the dark eating Top Ramen. Fine by me.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, it makes you wonder what these people would classify as a crash. Losing 50% of your home's value in a year. Would that be enough?

Thomas Jefferson said...

How about SEVENTY-ONE PERCENT markdown? How 'bout it, huh? Huh? HUH? Is a SEVENTY-ONE PERCENT discount a crash? Is it? Huh? Huh?
Linky to crashy: http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/
See list at right.
(Crickets chirping in Chicago...)

Anonymous said...

I live in ine of the areas people swear is immune to the bubble, (NJ coast town close to NYC). The asking prices are really insane and I am waiting for prices to adjust, but realtors and sellers are still in denial. It will be interesting to see how far prices will fall this year - I am hoping at least 20%, even then, that qouldn't be enough to make buying a house a good investment.

Anonymous said...

yep..and thank you for those double and triple property tax bills that compound at 10 percent a year ...yep.. not that the drugs are not working...health maintence equals disease....see todays reports on the choelesterol drugs today....note that illegal drugs may do less harm, but there is no money made in policing and taxing? yards and kitchens................

MassBubbleGirl said...

"Famous last words" is all that comes to mind...Clear desperation as well trying to scream that "THERE IS NO CRASH" What an idiot!

Anonymous said...

Supreme stupidity: not just for Realtwhores any more. Not AZ but check this out; didn't you know the bubble can be sustained so easily?

Realtors, sellers perpetuating the free fall by dropping prices (opinion)

nnj said...

Actual listing from a desirable town here in NJ, close to the big apple.

OLP: $519
today's asking: $425
DOM: 170

That is $94,000 off the original list price. I am also assuming that this property was not listed at an earlier time, taken off the market, and re-listed.

Wait 170 days and put $94,000 in your pocket. Since I can now get $94k in savings, should I wait for, say, $115k? $125k? As of now, that is the easiest $94,000 I have ever made.

Anonymous said...

I live in NY area, prices still crazy, BUT there is a lot inventory
and now sellers is willing to negotiate. On my way to work I am passing a few empty houses and few sitting with "For Sale" sight for at least 18 month. So as soon as a few more Financial Institutions post another 15-30 bln write-offs and restrict there lending standarts even more all those sellers will have no choice , but to cut even more. And "R" will start to accelarate and they have to slash even more ....

Anonymous said...


Al Capone said...

Prices are NOT necessarily holding up well on the North Side, f**k YOU very much:


Maybe I'm just overly HP, but a 45% drop probably warrants the term "crash."

Anonymous said...

He's not a troll. He really believes what he says. But then it always starts like that. Just $10K off. Then $20K then $40K. Then $50K. Then before you know it your house is worth $200K less.

Nobody in Phoenix or Miami or Las Vegas thought it could happen there either.

Tyrone said...

Well said, Keith. I was thinking the same thing after reading that comment.

While this isn't Chicago--Bang,bang--it underscores the growing problem...

San Diego December Housing Data

Anonymous said...

Hey, prices aren't "crashing" here either. However, those prices AREN'T SELLING!

You can price your house however you'd like, but that is not the value of that house. The value of the house is established when someone buys it.

Just wait until those "motivated" sellers become desperate. Then the prices will come down as they frantically try to find a buyer.


Anonymous said...

Inventory is a leading indicator.

Price is a trailing indicator.

Simple as that.

Mammoth said...

Did somebody mention “crash-proof Seattle?”

The WaMu headquarters building has blinking red lights around the perimeter of its roof.

What is a flashing red light usually signaling?



Anonymous said...

He repeated "prices are not crashing" and SHOUTED IT so it must be true

Anonymous said...

Great quote from Swann in the header Keith

What a dick

iam4sanity said...

"Yeah, it makes you wonder what these people would classify as a crash. Losing 50% of your home's value in a year. Would that be enough?"

a crash means people start doubting the liquidity of their investment; housing met that criteria a while back since the "number of homes for sale" steadly increased.

borkafatty said...

LOL obviously the commenter did not see the dollar index today....shameful to say the lease.

miner_tom said...

"Is this the beginning of the end of the gold runup."

There really won't be a run up in commodities like gold that will resemble what happened in Real Estate. I own gold, I even mine it (when the f**king government lets me) and yes, gold prices are high, but there will be nothing like a true "bubble". The reason? J&J6P will never be able to buy gold with leverage the same way that they have bought RE. RE is always acquired with borrowed money, ie, high leverage. You can picture average schmucks going to the bank or Countrywide and asking for $500K with $50K/yr income for a HOUSE but you will never see the bank loan that kind of money to the unwashed masses for gold investment. No way. Where would J&J6P get the money, otherwise? From savings? Dream on. The only way that gold can really, really, take off is if the currency collapses, and even if you own gold, you would not want to see that happen for reasons that should be all too obvious.

tabasco said...

Housing Tracker shows Chicago area median down 10% from peak with inventory still rising YOY. That guy needs to pull his head out of the sand.

Paul E. Math said...

I love the revolving discredited REIC quotes too. For old-time sake I visited the Swan-dive blog the other day. Sorry, I know it just encourages him.

Anyway, the guy hasn't changed a bit. At the time, his latest blog entry was a pathetic piece of naked self-congratulation: he was responding to an email asking him for writing advice. In the very first line Swan, waxing poetic, had referred to the inquirer as a 'would-be literateur'.

Firstly, I consider it the height of pretention to throw in French or French-sounding words when an English word will do perfectly well. Secondly, the word is misspelled - the correct spelling, in English, is 'Litterateur', with a double-t. And there is no such word as literateur or litterateur in French.

So I told him so, concluding "it's clear that you think very highly of yourself; what I can't figure out is why".

Swan didn't publish my comment but when I checked back he had edited the word 'literateur' from his blog entry.

Not that I care that much about spelling or grammar, but if you're going to stroke yourself in public then you'd better look like you know what you're doing. It's so petty, but that's exactly the kind of thing that drives a guy like Swan completely insane.

Art said...

I always love asking these people "So, since housing is such a great investment right now, how many houses have you bought lately? None? But I thought you said it was an infallable investment and that there were lots of houses for sale? So you are irrational? Ah, I see. STFU."

Anonymous said...


Maybe this dude should read this post by Mish. Very good write on Chicago.



califrothnia said...

Whatever happened to the thinker?!

Anonymous said...

beautiful paul e.

i disagree with qweefer a lot, but i give him credit in that he publishes all comments, even ones that criticize him

swan is a waste of air

Anonymous said...

if you like to troll. go to


they are the peek of ignorant

Anonymous said...

Chicago market sucks big time. Call any realtor abotu a listing ask them how much square foot is the house? They awalys say: "I know know." How they hell could you not know about sq ft???? I had one ass realtor tell me and I QUOTE: "We don't do square footage in Chicago." No joke.

Anonymous said...

Quick list of condos for sale in Chicago, IL per realtor.com:

15,587 properties match your search


Good luck selling YOURS.

Anonymous said...

Good article about how bad Chicago's condo market is.

Renters Italo and Alexandra Subbarao are biding their time in what they call a pricey Chicago market. They want to buy a two-bedroom condo close to downtown by next summer, but are torn about what to do.

''If the prices came down a little bit more we'd certainly be more apt to go for it without hesitation,'' said Italo, a physician. ''But we know it's a significant investment. There is uncertainty in the market and that gives us uncertainty.''

WINGS said...

I like these arrogant, high-brow people thinking their area of real estate is beyond reproach and immune from the massive tsunami of correction about to crash down upon them.

Wait till their little financial buttocks are peppered by falling real estate prices and they have to take it in the wallet.

They won't be so proud then.

I'll rather enjoy the corrective punishment that will humble them.

I want them to pay like the common man. I want justice and to see humility imposed upon them.

Anonymous said...

FYI, I live in Chicago and I and in the market to buy. I am waiting till the prices adjust back to income levels and PE rent v. own correction levels.

I have signed up with a forclosure website. I took a loo thru the worse ghetto hoods I can think of. I am seeing rundown boarded-up deep in the ghetto houses going for 75-80% off the last loan price! I'll say it again 75-80% off. Furthermore some of the prices I am seeing are BELOW 2001 prices!

This stuff would have been snatched up by developers a year ago. Now they are just sitting collecting dust.

Anonymous said...

You are a fool Keith for thinking that the sanity will prevail. Here in the Real World, insane ideas are doing well thank you very much.

Yes, it is true that there are lots of people with common sense, and ability to think logically is high, but sanity is not prevailing. I repeat: SANITY IS NOT PREVAILING. In the end, people do crazy things but it is taking longer to go insane and people are thinking clearly now and then not exactly a RETURN TO COMMON SENSE Keith.

So keep dreaming Keith about the return of sane thinking.

Anonymous said...

The Canadian equivalent would have to be Vancouver. House values are totally out-of-line with income and always have been. Once Hongcouver crashes I'll know the "fit has hit the shan".

Anonymous said...

Not that I care that much about spelling or grammar, but if you're going to stroke yourself in public then you'd better look like you know what you're doing. It's so petty, but that's exactly the kind of thing that drives a guy like Swan completely insane.

You HP'ers are a sick bunch.

I love it :)

Stuck in So Pa said...

......"people are knocking off 10K to 30K" off of WHAT? Around here that would be mind boggling!

swiss bacon club w/side of fries said...








C & C said...

As a "Seattle" burb resident, here's a few things I will add...

1) the Windermere Realty branch by us looks like a ghost town most days. Usewd to be it was like a bee-hive.

2) a look on www.redfin.com shows so many houses for sale, they look like little weeds all over the map. Inventory is more than abundent.

3) one chart i saw published by CFSB says Seattle had 1/3 of all mortgages written in 2006 as neg-am or I-O. this portends some major downward pricing in the future.

scott715 said...

Real Estate is local.

Lending is global.

mikey said...

I dont know about Chicago, but here in Rancho Santa Margarita, southern California, prices are crashing, I am looking at a 3/2 detached home here that is listed at 417k, theyre trying to get under the FHA conforming limit.
This house would have sold for around 650 grand, back in 2005.
We are 20 minutes from the beach, and all this week its been 75 degrees and sunny, in the middle of january.
If were crashing, it wont be long before the rest of the country follows, including Chicago.

double royal with cheese said...

Hey DOPES with the official Bushco GOP tin foil hat!

QUESTION: What does it mean, when, one of the world's largest banks fires 20,000 of it's bankers in ONE single day?


Dopes, are you there?....



He must be at Home Depot purchasing a For Sale By Owner sign... What a hoot! BWAAAAA!!!

Anonymous said...

QUESTION: What does it mean, when, one of the world's largest banks fires 20,000 of it's bankers in ONE single day?


Given that Citi employes about 350,000 people, laying off 20,000 is not that big a deal really.

Don't get me wrong, things aren't looking all that peachy out there. But laying off 5% of employees is not exactly earth shattering.

Gotta keep things in perspective.

BubbliciousChicagoan said...

I received a mailer, my first RE mailer ever, from "[my] local real estate expert" yesterday explaining that "Shift Happens" in the housing market. A "shift," not a correction or loss- a shift. It also included a quote from Lawrence Yun circa October 2007 AND a GlamourShots-style realtor photo.

I had to save it to show the grandkids in 40 years when they ask "what in the hell happened back then?"

Anonymous said...

i live on the n/w side of chicago.
mostly 970sf ranches listed for 450,000. nothing special and not many takers these days. 3 houses for sale on my block and 2 are empty.....at least 1 foreclosed.
i work in a trendy area on th n/e side and saw a house that last year might have sold for 700,000 being boarded up-foreclosure.
i think we are leaving the denile stage here.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...

Given that Citi employes about 350,000 people, laying off 20,000 is not that big a deal really.

Don't get me wrong, things aren't looking all that peachy out there. But laying off 5% of employees is not exactly earth shattering.

Gotta keep things in perspective.

January 15, 2008 12:52 PM"

You are correct. Since there are over 1 million Realtors slinging houses out there, If we eliminate 5% immediately, just for starters, that would be "not exactly earth shattering".

Therefore I propose permanently eliminating 75,000 Realtors immediately.

Think of the reduced carbon footprint...

Anonymous said...

NAR and Wall Street crooks strategy: Don't call it a crash even when the majority of realtwhores are living under a bridge. Call it a 50-50% chance of recession, which always translate into a good time to buy.

California is burning said...

This guy does not know how dumb he is. He uses facts that directly undermine his position and in the process, reveals his lack of knowledge about basic economics.

Homeowner said...

Sorry bitter renters, but there is no housing crash in Manhattan. 4Q 2007 saw incredible price appreciation in co-ops and condos! The credit crunch will no affect Manhattan since they ALWAYS had tough requirements. Even if you can get a toxic loan, the co-op baord will not approve you. I doubt bubble bloggers in Phoenix know what a co-op board is so I won't go into detail.

And Manhattan has a very large number of foreign buyers who will have no problems keeping prices up.

And I am one of those "sellers in denial" that an above poster referenced regarding New Jersey, and if you can't pay the current prices, you will just have to suck it up and continue renting or move to North Carolina or Pennsylvania, which is what so many priced out renters are doing right now.

Good day!

Homeowner said...

And I know I will get attacked for not buying into this whole "housing crash" fantasy, but remember this: I am brave enough to post using a REAL user name. You clowns just post under "anonymous" so I have no idea who I am speaking to.

Renting Clown said...

I live on North Shore (Winnetka, Wilmette, Kenilworth). Went to open houses just before Christmas. 1st house priced at what the owner paid in 2004 and the Open House lady told me as I walked out...make an offer...they're desperate. Second house I visited, was 10% off the Original Listing price...as I walked out this Open House lady said...they would accept an offer 10% below the currently listed price. The third house I visited was 25% the OLP. These homes ranged in price from $1.5M to $4M. My conclusion, the North Shore is unwinding not Vegas/California/Miami style but it is unwinding....fyi, I am renting. I could not afford the house I am renting but the rent was too good to pass up.

Tyrone said...

How is Chicago (Bang-bang) doing?

Housing crashes through floor
Sales decline picks up speed in 4th quarter; a tough spring ahead

Sales of new homes in the Chicago area fell even faster in the fourth quarter, and with the economy on the brink of recession, homebuilders face another tough spring selling season.