December 21, 2007

And then another ramen eating realtor who doesn't understand economics pleaded with the sheeple to stop panicking. And of course they panicked more.

When crowds see panic, they panic. It's just human behavior. When people buy financial assets solely for the promise of future appreciation and then that promise goes kaput, the value of the financial asset goes kaput too.

When Ponzi Schemes and classic financial manias end, and they always do, it's simply every man for himself in a desperate rush for the exits. Appeals to "remain calm" from the bagholders and scheme enablers do the exact opposite.

Here's the letter to the editor (thanks doom) from the simplistically clueless and yet oh, so naively optimistic Scottsdale realtor who doesn't understand manias and panics, and also doesn't understand that realtors like him are to blame.

How to help the real-estate market

Here is a moderate solution to the real-estate market:

There are more than 58,000 homes on the market. If each and every person who does not need to sell his or her home, or can wait to sell, takes his or her home off the market, the market will correct very quickly.

What we would see is all the homes that the banks have had to take back or the short-sale homes. After a few months, we would have a strong housing market. In fact, if many Realtors would educate their sellers about this, everyone would be happy.

Sellers would get closer to their asking price, buyers would feel more confident when making a decision to purchase, and Realtors would not be throwing their hard-earned money out the window to market a property that will not sell.

I honestly believe that the greed of the banks and mortgage companies are to blame for a majority of this mess. We are helping them out. But in order to keep happy customers and create a strong housing market, we all must work together.

If you are planning to sell your home in this market, think again. Waiting just a little longer could mean extra money in your pocket. - Jason Grandon, Scottsdale

84 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Jason:

Exactly how thick is your skull? Home prices are to such levels that people cannot AFFORD to buy homes.

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Jason Grandon,

Now that we're at the end of the year, I think it's safe to say that you have won the "Douchebag of the Year" award. I think next year's award winner will have a hard time attaining your level of douchebaggery.

Anonymous said...

Hey Keith,

Now that Vlad Putin is leaving office, and has managed so somehow amass a fortune estimated in excess of $40 *billion* dollars, where do you think he's going to buy a house (ie. palace)?

LauraVella said...

Over on SFGate there's a article on bayarea home prices falling and most posters believe nothing's changed, that we're in the "slow period".

They say: Wait until Spring... homes aren't selling because it's the holidays...or superbowl... or some other excuse.

Anonymous said...

If they didn't need to sell, why the hell would they be selling? People put their homes up for sell for a reason. FB's can't make their payments. Others are getting divroced or need to relocate for some reason. I don't think anyone puts their home up for sale just for kicks.

Anonymous said...

Exactly how thick is your skull? Home prices are to such levels that people cannot AFFORD to buy homes.

--

Speak for yourself McWorking renter. Just because all you can afford is a basement apartment, don't assume everyone is in your shoes.

Veronica Lodge said...

RE: Naively-optimistic Scottsdale realtor's statement: "I honestly believe that the greed of the banks and mortgage companies are to blame for a majority of this mess."

Well that's a relief!

All along I thought that greedy Realtwhores, dishonest brokers and bribed appraisers were somehow involved in the real estate collapse.

V.L.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Wait a little longer, sell for a lot, LOT less you mean, as opposed to selling for less now. Tell your customers if they want to sell, lower the damn price, idiot!

Anonymous said...

Put down the pipe Jason....
Santa

Cow_tipping said...

Yes, absolutely, he is 100% right, and everyone that has a house or 15 to sell, has to absolutely sell them all yesterday ... that 8,000 house payment is eating them alive. BTW, why should anyone sacrifice themselves for the others. let the people with the $7500 payment get theirs off the market, then I'll pull mine.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Dr. Lewiston said...

Hey everybody it's Dr. Lewiston here with another way to solve this whole mess we're in.

All would be well if buyers would simply switch over to generational mortgages, that way we cant have what we want now and our children's children can continue to pay for our brilliant decisions. It would give reason to having granite countertops too since stone lasts a hell of a long time.

And it provides incentives for having more children which increases the likelyhood that we can retire with somebody else paying for it and allows you to live beyond your means RIGHT NOW!

Go generational mortgages, GO!

I think they do this in Japan already but since I'm not an expert (I don't know my Nagiri from my Maki) please don't quote me on that until I've googled the internet for the answer.

Tangelo Mozilo said...

Even assuming this guy is correct, which he is not, the solution that he poses gives rise to a prisoners' dilemma, and therefoere will not work.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for speaking up Jason. You are why the general public as a whole think realtors are scum.

Anonymous said...

I think his plan is what would be called an illegal non-compete agreement that artificially distors the market and leads to de facto price fixing, all of which is a federal crime under the sherman act. but of coures realtwhores have been violating the sherman act for decades and not been caled on the carpet yet by the feds. That is more likely than not why this nimrod thinks manipulating the market is a good idea.

Here my suggestion:

Realtwhores are all arrested for the federal, state and local civil and criminal violations they've commited, commissions are set by a free market and drop to 1% like in many other countries and sellers slash knowing that they have a 5% cushion now so that their asking prices reach an undistorted equalibrium in regards to supply and demand, thus the price point reached by this equalibrium establishes the true FMV for homes and then we can all move forward and worry about the other ills our nation is afflicted with.

Anonymous said...

O.K., here is another fine opportunity for Frank to rear his head and once again enlighten us.

Where are you, Frankie? Please, please don't let us down! I know you're out there!

I'd bet this guy probably broke out in a heavy sweat when he saw this thread Keith posted, and can hardly wait to chime in with more negative comments about Scottsdale.

Coming from on-so-unpretentious Southern California, his boring drivel. really mean a lot to everyone reading it.

Anonymous said...

From his website;

"I have many years of experience and knowledge working in this industry. I can say with confidence that I'll get the job done right. In addition to working in the entertainment industry, I believe that confidentality is important. My clients can rest assured that I'm one person they can trust and rely on.

Anonymous said...

DOW UP 200

End of the world is here.

randy said...

Is this realtwhore still trying to keep prices high?

Anyone still think realtors where not responsible for inflating housing prices for a nice 6% commission?

Jason, I have really bad news or you.
We don’t need you..
We are all very capable in negotiating a home sale directly from sellers.

The housing market will get back to normal when prices get back to normal.
When your local teacher and fireman can afford an average home, demand will get back to historic levels.

This means that most houses must drop about 50% in price for demand to pick up again.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

anon guy looking for Frank ~

Don't worry, he'll be here just as soon as he updates his blog about how bad Scottsdale sucks. He left there months ago and still can't get over the place.

BTW, he isn't representative of all of Southern California. The rest of 'em all know that Orange County is LA's answer to NJ.

(peace to all Joisey boys & girls...sorry for insulting your state by the comparison....)

Anonymous said...

"I honestly believe that the greed of the banks and mortgage companies are to blame for a majority of this mess. We are helping them out."

That last statement could be taken two ways. Are you helping them out to be less greedy, or more greedy? Like that old medical joke:

Patient: "Doctor, doctor, I'm on death's door!"

Doctor: "Don't worry, we'll pull you through!"

Anonymous said...

I THINK HE HAS A GOOD IDEA....HERE'S AN EVEN BETTER ONE.

How about we ask everyone living in New Mexico to move to Arizona!! If everyone in New Mexico sells their house and then move to Phoenix, think of the housing demand!! Its foolproof I tell ya...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
DOW UP 200

End of the world is here.

December 21, 2007 4:13 PM
------
Come back next year and post what the DOW is doing after the music stops and the Banks and Wall Street can no longer keep this game of hot potato with all the losses going and 100's of billions of toxic waste must be reported on their books and they have to meet the margin calls instead of hiding it on off balance sheet Iinvestment vehicles"

Anonymous said...

>> DOW UP 200
>> End of the world is here.

----------

When is this idiot going to realize that the current housing depression is NOT connected to how much the stock market going up in a single day??? This was very expected to happen. Google "sucker rally"

Tyrone said...

From his FAQ section. Did he honestly enforce these rules with his clients? Although, he did add the caveat about other programs (i.e. fraud).

Determine How Much Home You Can Afford
Many web sites offer calculators that help you determine how much home you can afford. A good calculator will give you a range affordability. Many of these calculators use standard debt ratios of 28/36. This means that your housing payments cannot exceed 28 percent of your gross income and that your total debt cannot exceed 36 percent of your gross income. However, there are a wide range of programs. Depending on your assets, credit history and earning potential, you may be able to qualify for more than what the standard debt ratio calculations would indicate. Contact a lender to determine of how much you can afford.

Anonymous said...

It's the price of houses. They are so high that it makes no sense to this retiree who would like to leave his house in the city and go to a smaller, slower moving town.
Yes, my home in the city is worth almost 4X what I paid for it. BUT...ever take a good look at what you get for your dollar now?
Compared to my current house that I have lived in for the last 24 years, the houses that they want to sell to me that I have seen are pure junk.
Also, I have been steered by realtors. They don't like to tell you about "problem areas". Places like the Pocono mountains in Monroe County, areas where people are leaving because of taxes or anticipated re=valuation due to the price rises, etc. Also, how much sense is it when a person is on a fixed income in their late 50's or early 60's to purchase a house for $375K? or even $275K for that matter! We'll be dead in a likely 10 years.
I feel bad for young people, they are in worse shape. First, good luck getting a job that pays enough. Second, good luck with that overpriced house you just bought. It won't be worth what you paid by the time ;08 and '09 roll around. Will you walk away from it? IS an economic collapse around the corner? - messenger from "The Silent" generation.

Anonymous said...

I bet this guy also believes the over crowding at hospital ER's is caused by people going there to meet and chat with their friends.

Anonymous said...

He must be sniffing glue!!!!

pwnd said...

"I'm Jason Grandon. I am a native to this awesome state and I'm proud to live here. If you are buying, selling or just renting, I want to make sure that you have a positive experience. I have a very professional staff and we will make this the most memorable experience for you. I would love to hear about your wants and needs. Please feel free to contact me anytime. Whether you are buying or selling now or in the future, call me and I will help you in the right direction. Thank you"

Dow is up (today anyway), housing is still down...

In sum, if own a highly leveraged asset, like a mortgaged house, you are screw'd. It really doesn't matter what GOOG is doing. If your house is 10 - 20% upside down, you are technically bankrupt - congrats!

Stocks are up by the way because Asian countries, and OPEC are tired of buying worthless US debt and financing our prodigal lifestyle. Now they are using all their USD to buy our iconic enterprises. Seems like a shitty deal doesn't it, trading Citigroup and Morgan Stanley for worthless Chinese crap that just ends up just filling the landfills.

"Happy" days ahead for the once great USA. At least we still have the greatest military - right?

Peter T said...

> doesn't understand that realtors like him are to blame

I don't think that realtors are to blame for the housing bubble and bust - the Fed is, and rating agencies are. If realtors are to blame for anything then for appearing to be confidants instead of the used-house salesmen they are.

To the letter: If all sellers keep their houses, prices wouldn't matter to them, would they? Lower prices might be even better for them, to have lower property taxes. It's easy to see through his motives: he doesn't care about sellers, his income comes from buyers, and he wants buyers fearing to loose a bidding instead of fearing to loose money.

Ruprecht said...

This guy is hilarious. He always posts in the AZ online newspaper.
Does he also suggest that all the condo converters in the area. (there are at least 15 of them; some from mid 2005) take all their property off the market?
Maybe the county should also stop issuing new housing permits until all the spec homes are sold!
Maybe all the houses could be sold at one huge auction with no reserve.
How about realtors waive their commission for the next five years!
Or wall street could come up with some kind of EZ financing deals that requires no money down and no payment for 2 years, they could package the loans into bonds that could then be bought by pension funds around the world.

Tangelo Mozilo said...

DOW UP 200

End of the world is here.
------------------

Gold is up more, genius.

Adam Slowhand Smith said...

[b]Contact a lender to determine of how much you can afford.[/b]

Yikes! What horrible advice, relying on financial advice from anyone who's trying to sell you something! NEWSFLASH: as the sub-prime collapse conclusively proved, the lender has NO fiduciary responsibility to lenders (as well as thinking they have no fiduciary responsibility to investors, too, but I digress).

Relying on others for determining what you can afford: isn't that exactly how we got into this mess, in the first place? Brokers/lenders clearly have a stake in YOUR financial decision, as does the real estate agent (hence, all the "Suzanne says we can do this" references, when the realtor suggests the couple CAN afford the house, with their eye on their 5% commission).

Think of it: would you expect a car salesman to say, "No, maybe it's not a good idea for you to buy this luxury car right now". Are they trained and licensed as certified financial managers, or are they going to forego their commission on the deal, out of concern for YOU?

The answer is YOU, the CONSUMER, need to have an idea of what your budget is, and how much YOU can afford. Get help from a neutral party (financial adviser, etc), if you need help. Such services are offered for free, in some cases.


[b]Anonymous said...

It's the price of houses.[/b]

EXACTLY. It IS that simple.

Why do some people try to make this more complicated than it really is, trying to frame it as a problem that can be solved by Fed interest rate adjustments, more exotic terms, etc?

As they say, it's the PRICE, stoopid....

Some are pushing for lower mortgage interest rates, which is stoopid: in 2007, the housing problem (and solution) is NOT related to excessively high interest rates (like it was in the 1970's, when rates skyrocketed to 15-20%, making home loans too expensive). No, current rates have hovered near historic LOWS for the past 6 years!

So how could you LOWER rates at this point, in a foolish attempt to try and rekindle the market (and driving inflation higher)?

The housing crash was NOT spurred by interest rates, per se, and can't be blamed now.

The REAL problem was triggered by EZ access to $$$ to virtually ANYONE who asked for a loan, despite not having a job, income verification, etc. FINALLY, lenders have figured out that lending $$$ to people who cannot repay it is NOT good business (and who needs an MBA to know THAT?), the EZ liquidity is gone.

The problem was fueled by easy money, where no one, even the lenders, really understood how the money machine worked; the exotic instruments used (CDOs, SIV, etc) allowed any adult so inclined to rush into the market to be the next Donald Trump real estate mogul.

Stock market and mutual fund investors in China and elsewhere jumped on the promise of healthy returns via their investments, and greedy specuvestors in real estate highly leveraged their assets, borrowing millions of $$$ on the hopes of driving prices higher.

We thus saw the largest speculative demand created in real estate EVER. Who knew the infomercials were right, as Americans attempted to become rich via real estate (not realizing they were bidding against each other, for the most part, thus creating an artificial demand/shortage).

Hmmm, so what would happen if all these specuvestors suddenly tried to sell their 2nd (3rd, 4th, etc) homes? Think that might drive down demand a tad? Ya' think?

So prices increased 3-4x in a short period of time, and these "I'm getting rich in equity" morons bid prices well past affordability for the average working stiff.

Isn't it common sense that people earning a median income need to be able to afford the price of a house? Regardless of what anyone says, you cannot sustain any other situation, without resorting to bubble-inflating methods (zero-down loans, toxic ARMs, I/O loans, etc).

So now that the forces inflating the bubble from 2001-2006 have collapsed, home PRICES have nowhere to go but down (not to mention the collateral damage done to our economy, AKA stagflation, if not outright recession/depression, not to mention a shrinking dollar overseas, etc.)

Anonymous said...

I don't think I've ever read something so stupid in my life. Keep in mind that not all people selling their homes were even invested in real estate to start with. If someone needs to move and needs to sell their home his tactic would make people lose their jobs.

My mother already has a coworker who bought a new house...but hasn't sold the old one yet so he's paying TWO mortages. So under his logic I guess he should take it off two and just eat the cost of one house vs the other.

Face the facts they made more homes than the demand has created...total empty homes is estimated to be 17.9 million. We could house everyone from cuba and austria...there's more empty homes than homeless people.

Let the housing bubble burst or else it will be a bigger burst down the line.

Anonymous said...

To all house buyers, (and sellers) who are currently working with Mr. Jason Grandon.
Take him up on his advice and tell him you are going to wait the market out for the next 2 years. Thank him for all he has done and tell him to wait to hear from you in a couple of years from now.

Anonymous said...

"and Realtors would not be throwing their hard-earned money out the window to market a property that will not sell."

Jason, Jason, Jason.... Hard-earned money ??

NOT

Anonymous said...

WAAAA WAAAAA WAAAAA

Get a W-2 job and stop whining.

What a dumbass!

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

So I guess that big realtor event in Scottsdale where they danced around campfires in robes and asked the universe for a good market didn't work?

Anonymous said...

I have a question for some of the smarter people here. In my area, during the bubble era, hundreds of homes were built and sold for outrageous prices (a 2500 square foot home would typically sell for 550K to 625K and 3000 to 4000 square foot homes would sell for 699K to 1.2 M.). Now, if a person bought a house for such an exorbitant price, and now they can not afford it AND the value has decreased, WHY NOT JUST WALK AWAY? Just don't pay the mortgage and live rent free for six to nine months and save the money and let them foreclose on you??? Why aren't people doing that? Please provide your answers please.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Exactly how thick is your skull? Home prices are to such levels that people cannot AFFORD to buy homes.

--

Speak for yourself McWorking renter. Just because all you can afford is a basement apartment, don't assume everyone is in your shoes.


I think he's referring to the classic first-time buyers: A couple in their 20s, just married, buying their first home.

Nowadays that couple can't afford to buy. And that is exactly why the bubble and Ponzi scheme came to an end - you can't support it on baby boomers who have (had) the spending money and credit to buy overpriced McMansions.

For all of you waiting for my Scottsdale comments, they're not even needed here. Everyone knows by now that Scottsdale was just a fake economy with no real industry other than real estate. The mass closures of shops and restaurants speak to the fact that no one in Scottsdale ever had any real wealth and it was just one big housing ATM spending spree.

Hell, even Scottsdale's wikipedia page mentions that it's become the butt of jokes around the country and has become known as the classic "fake" town.

Anonymous said...

They are in fact doing just that. Some people will make the smarter financial decision (smarter for them) to let the property go back to the bank rather than keep paying on a depreciating asset. Plus they pay no rent for 6 plus months. If they pay everything else on time, then they only get one ding on their credit report. More will follow soon.

Anonymous said...

"If you are planning to sell your home in this market," DON'T TAKE TO LONG AND "think again. Waiting just a little longer could mean extra money in" the buyers "pocket."

Jordan said...

I have a $5M McMansion in Scottsdale to sell you. Here is the deal:

- The mortgage is 30 year fixed at 0.0% APR. Yes, I said zero percent....
- Cash back of $5K ( Five thousand dollars) per month on your monthly payment for 30 years.

Anyone ready to signup ?

Warning: Check your monthly payment! Of course, with zero interest on the load, say bye-bye to the tax break.

FB idiots: Do you now realize how the lowering the interest rates to zero affects you?

Anonymous said...

Sorry Jason but Suzanne crunched the numbers and told me that it's time to sell. She knows what she's talking about (gives Jason furrowed brow).

Anonymous said...

OK renters, you've had your fun. Now it's time to head back down to your mom's basement.

Oh and lookey here, dow is up 200. Yeah real hurt in the financial markets. Goldman Sachs is up anohther $7 today. My goodness, people are jumping out windows in lower Manahattan as I type.

Anonymous said...

"WHY NOT JUST WALK AWAY? Just don't pay the mortgage and live rent free for six to nine months and save the money and let them foreclose on you??? Why aren't people doing that? Please provide your answers please."

People have been doing that for the last 6-12 months which is the reason credit markets are frozen and people can now only borrow at prime (Fannie/Freddie/Government).

DaveO said...

Speak for yourself McWorking renter. Just because all you can afford is a basement apartment, don't assume everyone is in your shoes.

What you don't understand is that housing prices are so high, and this is the key, RELATIVE TO INCOME, that only rich people can afford modest houses. Think about that.

To think of it another way, a renter could afford a hell of a nicer house for their given monthly payment than they could buy for the same mortgage payment.

Like Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said, in a normal non-bubble market (which we had last decade), if the McWorking renter, as you so fondly refer to him, could afford a place that was as good or nicer than the one he was currenly renting, it would make sense to go ahead and buy. By "afford", I mean using a loan that won't blow up in his face after a certain period of time.

Think about it.

Anonymous said...

Frankie,

Housing took off in 2004. Are you saying that pre-2004 Scottsdale/Phoenix was a fake economy too?

I realize you have some deeply rooted psycholgical issues with Scottsdale. That is between you and your doctor. But come on man, the city is the 5th or 6th biggest in the country and it was that in 2003 as well.

Obviously housing priced shot up too high and are coming back down. But to suggest the whole are is now somehow a ghost town is beyond stupid.

Anonymous said...

So Dow is up 200 and you goons can retort is

a) yeah but gold or

b) yeah but next year will suck

OK. Look up gold price in 1980. "nuff said.

And you goons have been saying wait till next year for the past 3-4 years. In that time the dow is up about 50%.

Face it morons, you have no idea what you are talking about. You are the same goons who were building Y2K bunkers. You are the same goons who vote for Ron Paul.You are the same goons who think black helicopters are landing in your backyard.

Keep stuffing your mattresses with $5 bills.

Anonymous said...

Oh wait, dow is up only 190 now. The depression is about to begin.

Silly goons you were right all along. My bad.

Jim said...

Sure, DJIA is up 7.3% this year, but gold is up close to 30%, wheat is up close to 40%, oil is up about 50%!

The best performing stock market in the world this year is once again Zimbabwe stock market. It's up close to 2000% in local currency, which is facing inflation rate of somewhere around 18000%!

tater said...

"Yes, my home in the city is worth almost 4X what I paid for it. BUT...ever take a good look at what you get for your dollar now?"

Exactly!
Your house may be worth a mint, but it takes a mint and a half to buy another one that would be a comp to your house.

Anonymous said...

"I honestly believe that the greed of the banks and mortgage companies are to blame for a majority of this mess. We are helping them out. But in order to keep happy customers and create a strong housing market, we all must work together."

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume his idea of "working together" will not involve him lowering his 6% commission.

Anonymous said...

I just spoke with my stock broker friend and he is not worried at all. In fact, he thinks we are currently in a recession, but he says if one sector performs badly, then other's do well. For example, tech stocks are doing well right now. I tried to tell him that the overall economy will deflate because of lowered consumer economic activity. He just doesn't get it.

The market is jumping on anything even remotely good and ignoring a lot of the bad news. The market responds positively to a bailout but ignores the very fact why they needed the bailout in the first place. Strange. My friend told me that stock market has already priced in the subprime losses for now and into the future. I said how could that be when the future losses are unknown. I don't think he gets it, he doesn't see the wave after wave of default heading our way. I guess this 4th quarter is only the appetizer. The main dish will be 1st or 2nd quarter next year. We shall see.

Anonymous said...

This letter just shows how truly dumb most realtors are

Anonymous said...

Consumer spending gives the Dow a 200 point boost. We have passed the $5.00 per gallon of milk stage. Buy a few bushels of corn while it's still cheap!

Anonymous said...

Gold is up 0% in the past 27 years.

Anonymous said...

DOW is up today. That means we should all go buy houses. When the DOW goes down next week, we should all sell those same houses we just bought. I still don't understand what the DOW has to do with home prices or sales, but I'm just a goon. LOL

Anonymous said...

Realtors would not be throwing their hard-earned money out the window to market a property that will not sell.
-----------------------------------

this is the real problem for mr grandon. he is not worried about his customers. he is only worried about his wallet. and the "hard-earned" bit was classic.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Housing took off in 2004. Are you saying that pre-2004 Scottsdale/Phoenix was a fake economy too?

Actually it started in 2002. That's when I began to notice that you couldn't go anywhere in Scottsdale without hearing some jackass in a Tommy Bahama shirt bragging about how much his house had gone up.

Prior to 2002, Phoenix/Scottsdale was primarily call center jobs and low-wage factory/manufacturing jobs. While everyone was caught up in the real estate mania, all those call center and factory jobs quietly moved to China and India.

(Also, there was a lot of fake dot-com money in Scottsdale up until 2000 when it got wiped out. Another fake economy.)

So, the call center and factory crap is gone, real estate is gone ... what's left?

I sure hope they sell lots of $8 beers to the pretentious a-holes at the FBR Open this year cuz it's gonna take a lot to make up the deficit.

PS: Of the friends & relatives I have remaining in Arizona, they're mostly moving out of state to find jobs, either by choice or not. Nice "real" economy you got there.

Anonymous said...

Dow 15K by 12/31/07

Dow 18K by 12/31/08

KEEFER, i hope you keep archives a long time, I want to come back and gloat on 1/1/09

Anonymous said...

I have an idea everyone:

Let's all quit our jobs stay at home for a few months. This way we reduce the supply of employment. Employers will forced to pay a higher wage since there will be fewer people to choose from.

And then by the time we all re-enter the work force our salaries will have doubled.

What do you say everyone?

Anonymous said...

"DOW UP 200

End of the world is here."

Ah, nice to see 13500 is the new heckling threshold. Never be disappointed again, just lower your expectations.

jim said...

DJIA had 0% return for 20 years from 1962 to 1982. DJIA was trading at 18 times the price of gold in 1928. Today, the ratio is 16.7. The ratio goes in cycles. . . as in, the two assets are generally out of phase with each other, when normalized by a common inflatin adjustor (not the BLS number, but a summation of both DJIA and POG with a constant weighing). Housing price is somewhere caught between the two, with the housing market trailing the stock market by about 3-5 years.

buttmunch said...

At least the relators in my town have a back up plan. They're gonna use all of their shiny new FOR SALE signs to build a group home for relators and burn MLS listings to keep cozy thru Christmas and they're gonna feed each other bullshit until this little "slow down" passes. Then it's right back to those six figure incomes (ya know Glamour Shots cost a fortune).

ZZwcck said...

I wonder if I can take that as investment advice? Our homes are now investments so shouldn't I be able to go after the realtor in question in the event my house doesn't sell for more in a few months?

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Yeah, Scottsdale never had a "real economy", right, Frank?

So, I guess I have a pretty active imagination. My dad didn't work for an airline that eventually became Northwest (Hughes Airwest), my brother's best friend's dad didn't work for Garrett (I think Allied Signal took them over) and the guy next door didn't work for Motorola. I didn't meet and marry some guy in Phoenix that worked for Honeywell, and our wedding wasn't attended by a bunch of people who work for American Express (not the call center guys, either).

And I'm really delusional to think that Dial was hq'd in Phoenix and then Scottsdale.

Thanks for setting us all straight with your in-depth research you did Friday nights while waiting to get into Axis/Radius.

keith said...

If you post as ANON you are a coward. Your words and thoughts are meaningless to this board.

If you'd like your opinion to matter, sign your posts, or click "other" and make up a name (you don't have to register)

Anonymous said...

"Thanks for setting us all straight with your in-depth research you did Friday nights while waiting to get into Axis/Radius."

The doormen would never let Frank into Axis/Radius, I think thats why he still hates Scottsdale so much!

Anonymous said...

Feel free to visit Jason's site at:
http://www.jasonsellsarizona.com/

Happy now KEEFER I picked a name said...

It's not that hard people. Housing is in the shitter. The stock market is doing pretty well - and will continue to do so in 2008 IMO.

The two are not related. 2001-2003 was god awful for stocks but great for housing.

Now back to your regularily scheduled doom and gloom.

Anonymous said...

Prior to 2002, Phoenix/Scottsdale was primarily call center jobs and low-wage factory/manufacturing jobs. While everyone was caught up in the real estate mania, all those call center and factory jobs quietly moved to China and India.

=============
Frank you are a fool, really.

Top employers in Tempe:

1 Arizona State University 10568
2 Jpmorgan Chase Bank 2300
3 Honeywell 2200
4 Purple Rhino Imports 2000
5 Chase Card 1994
6 Chase Bank 1600
7 Freescale Semiconductor 1500
8 Conocophillips 1500
9 Medtronic Microelectronics 1355
10 US Airways, Inc. 1152

Top Employers Phoenix:

1. Wal-Mart19,189
2. Honeywell 13,303
3. Banner Health Systems 12,408
4. Raytheon Co: 10,100
5. Intel Corp: 9,575
6. Albertsons Inc: 9,500
7. Bashas': 9,282
8. Wells Fargo & Co: 9,100
9. Kroger Co: 9,053
10. Target Corp: 8,778

Top Employers Tucson:

Wells Fargo
U.S. Army Intelligence Center
Raytheon Missile Systems
University of Arizona
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base
Tucson Unified School District
TMC Healthcare
Carondelet Health Network


Yep nothing but call centers and real estate jobs in Arizona.

And median household income in Scottsdale is $84K. Compare that to your precious Newport Beach at $93K. When you factor in the california income tax vs. az income tax it almost evens out. Yet housing in Newport is 2-3 times more expensive than Scottsdale.

Like I said you are a fool. And speaking for all residents of the state, thank you 100 times for leaving.

Anonymous said...

Actually it started in 2002. That's when I began to notice that you couldn't go anywhere in Scottsdale without hearing some jackass in a Tommy Bahama shirt bragging about how much his house had gone up.

blame it on the viagra

Anonymous said...

It's not that hard people. Housing is in the shitter. The stock market is doing pretty well - and will continue to do so in 2008 IMO.

You are likely out of your mind with fear or simply too stupid to understand this collapse.

To beleive the stock market is even legitimate requires a dull mind.

Anonymous said...

"Dow 15K by 12/31/07

Dow 18K by 12/31/08

KEEFER, i hope you keep archives a long time, I want to come back and gloat on 1/1/09"

...and when you're wrong are you going to come back and eat crow?

by the way your whole "KEFFER" thing is not funny, and just makes you look like an a55hole -- just sayin'.

Happy Holidays HP!!!

Anonymous said...

.



Hey, that looks like Tony Robbins!


.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Hey anon tool, you're fudging numbers and giving us "funny math" just like a politician ... let's take a look:

Top Employers Phoenix:

1. Wal-Mart 19,189
2. Honeywell 13,303
3. Banner Health Systems 12,408
4. Raytheon Co: 10,100
5. Intel Corp: 9,575
6. Albertsons Inc: 9,500
7. Bashas': 9,282
8. Wells Fargo & Co: 9,100
9. Kroger Co: 9,053
10. Target Corp: 8,778


What this list intentionally leaves out is the fact that over 90% of jobs in Phoenix come from SMALL BUSINESS and not from the employers you list.

What you also left out is that approximately 40% of jobs in Phoenix are/were tied directly to real estate. You don't see them on your bogus list because real estate & mortgage jobs primarily fall under the small business category.

You're also not helping Phoenix's image by pointing out that the #1 employer is Wal-Mart. Jeez, that's embarrassing. It just goes to show the #1 priority of Phoenix area residents is cheap banal living.

You also forgot to mention that retailers are suffering their worst holiday shopping season EVER right now thanks to the credit crash, and that 5 out of 10 on your list are retailers. And then there's Wells Fargo. So, in all, 6 out of 10 of Phoenix's top 10 employers are in trouble.

Not good pal, not good. If you have any brains at all you will move out of there before it turns into the new Detroit. But then again, you can't, because nobody can sell a house in Phoenix right now.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure whether to laugh at your or feel sorry for your people. How's that Y2K bunker coming along by the way?

losers.

Anonymous said...

Hey Frank tool,

Speaking of "just like a politician," your reference to Scottsdale's Wikipedia page failed to reference that "Scottsdale being the butt of jokes and being referred to as Snotttsdale, etc..." was directly linked to a period of time about thirty years before you ever lived there. If everyone knew it was so bad THIRTY YEARS AGO, what the f*** were you ever doing living there in the first place? I've found you to be one of the most convenient re-arrangers of facts ever (please PLEASE show us where you get this "40%" number). You should host a right-wing talk show.

You're a joke. I, too, cannot thank you enough for getting the hell out of my home state. I hope you start a trend: The "I Lived in Phoenix For A Short Time But It Sucked So I Left" trend. Please, please, please take every other douchenozzle who thinks somewhere else is so great with you. And stay the f*** out. People like you are the very reason my hometown has taken a turn for the worse in recent years. And we don't take kindly to "#1 bestselling authors" here, mostly because we're all stoopid, right?

Unless, of course, you've written a book of some literary value - then you're welcome to come speak for free, like Michael Chabon and Barbara Kingsolver, or you could even teach here, like Ron Carlson or Buzz Poverman.

But if you just wrote a jerkoff sales manual, you're better off staying out.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix housing is going to be in the crapper for a loooong time.

You bubble doubters can get as mad as you want - we'll just watch house prices CONTINUE to crash.

Anonymous said...

"You're also not helping Phoenix's image by pointing out that the #1 employer is Wal-Mart. Jeez, that's embarrassing. It just goes to show the #1 priority of Phoenix area residents is cheap banal living."

Walmart is the #1 employer in the country dude. It will be #1 in many many cities. And that is beside the point. You originally said Phoenix is nothing but call centers and low-level manufacturing. I pointed out you were factually wrong. Now you come back with some idiocy about small businesses. Since when are call centers run by small businesses? Frank you seriously make no sense.

"You also forgot to mention that retailers are suffering their worst holiday shopping season EVER right now thanks to the credit crash, and that 5 out of 10 on your list are retailers. And then there's Wells Fargo. So, in all, 6 out of 10 of Phoenix's top 10 employers are in trouble."

EVER? Like worse than say 1933? Or worse than 1982? Or worse than 1991? Credit crash huh? Oh so then Nov. spending was up 1.1% because everyone spent cash? And Best Buy's numbers were great because everyone bought $2000 TVs with gold coins? Oh no wait it's because everyone used a credit card,so they your fellow HPers. Oh no wait you now say there is a credit crash. Make up your minds already.

Well I'd love to chat some more but I have to get to the airport. The economy is sooooo awful, that my flight is overbooked by 22 and I want to get there nice and early to make sure my seat isn't given away. I know that is a sign of a recession since when people lose their jobs and have no money, first thing they do is book a flight.

I'll be thinking of your doom and gloom as I'm skiing this week. Hey maybe you're all right and the depression is here, maybe I'll have shorer lift lines.

Merry Christmas HP,cheer up a little guys.

Anonymous said...

I think Jason the Realtor will soon be returning to his previous job. I'm guessing that's DJ in a strip club.

"OK, guys, put your hands together for Mo-Nique. Next up on the main stage is Tiffani! All table dances are $20 for the next hour. Don't forget to check out the free buffet. All the cocktail weenies and batter-dipped mushrooms you can eat!"

Another six-percenter gets butt-rammed. Love it.

Anonymous said...

"Speak for yourself McWorking renter. Just because all you can afford is a basement apartment, don't assume everyone is in your shoes."

Actually, working professional that currently rents a 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath townhouse, which I share with the woman. All my neighbors who bought the last few years are now in the hole. I am paying 1/2 the cost to live in a place that they think is better than theirs- we have granite, stainless and hardwoods, they don't but wish they did. And, I often get really drunk late at night and turn the music up really loud.

Anonymous said...


The stock market is doing pretty well - and will continue to do so in 2008 IMO.


The DOW30 is composed of the 30 largest multinational corporations in America. That's hardly representative of America. The S&P500 is lower than it was 8 years ago. That's how much America's economy has grown the past 8 years. With 3% inflation per year, we have been going backwards. We have depended on war spending and real estate fraud just to keep the economy from collapsing. Now the bill comes due with massive inflation.

Anonymous said...

There are a ton of dumbasses out here. Gradnon has a good point and since space is limited he could not obvioulsy address many of your ignorant comments. Here is one thing we need to keep in mind, EVERY PLACE IS DIFFERNT. SCOTTSDALE is in good shape compared to many other parts of the country. I'm just wondering , why you all all so mean. Everytime I read a solution to a problem , I alway see atacks after attacks. I applaude Grandon and the many others that have stepped up to offer a solution. Thanks for tring. For those of you that are full of hate and bitterness, I suggest that you either help with a solution, call and introduce yourself to these suggestion makers and help be a solution to the puzzle and not a problem. Because, I'm tired of all the hatred, I called Grandon, Givenello and Hollinger( all realtors in AZ) and they were awesome. I never thought they would be such nice easy going people.