June 01, 2007

Why don't the monkeys who are paid to understand basic economics understand basic economics?

Why do housing "analysts" and the Fed continue to be "shocked" and "surprised" by the length, severity and breadth of the housing crash?


Are they truly that dumb?

I also love when I read in the MSM that "nobody" anticipated this decline. Uh, ever read HP or any of the other bubble blogs? Or read The Economist?

I understand when realtors, mortgage brokers, homedebtors and shoe shine guys don't understand this stuff. Especially considering the pathetic state of the American education system and dumbing down of the MSM. But come on, you're telling me The Federal Reserve doesn't get it? IF that's true, that's pretty scary.
Maybe we should send a copy of Manias, Panics and Crashes to all of 'em. You'd figure in economics class (assuming to become an "analyst" you have to go to college) they'd cover this stuff.

After the biggest bubble and financial mania in the history of humanity, you'd think they'd understand that it's a long, long way back down.

Fed sees housing correction dragging on

The correction in the US housing market will “probably persist longer than previously anticipated”,
Federal Reserve policymakers judged at their last meeting, according to minutes released on Wednesday.

The minutes show that Fed officials meeting on May 9 were concerned by the decline in new home sales and the rise in the inventory of unsold homes relative to the rate of turnover.

Most of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee felt that weak residential investment would “continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year” – longer than expected.

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmmm let's see;

Option 1: Take economic advice from people with PhDs from the top schools, decades of experience.

Option 2: Listen to raving lunatics on a blog with maybe a high school diploma.

Tought call.

Anonymous said...

Is that former cheif economist of the NAR David Lereah?

Anonymous said...

It's a snow-job to keep the popoulace spending. They know the masses scare easily so they need to sugar-coat everything.

Scaring the flock of consumers is a no-no, especially when you depend on advertising revenue.

Chris G

beentheredonethat said...

Don't you just love those people with PhDs from the top schools, decades of experience? You know the bastards who will salivate for a few pats on the head or sell their souls for a few bucks. I know they impress me to no end and I believe every word they enlighten us with.

Why would I listen to the raving lunitics on a blog with maybe a high school diploma. You know the types who start and run small successful businesses in the real world. The types who have watched as the educated have led us down the yellow brick road we currently experience.

Tough call? I think not.

Stephen said...

Collapse comments


Anonymous said...
"Hmmm let's see;

Option 1: Take economic advice from people with PhDs from the top schools, decades of experience.

Option 2: Listen to raving lunatics on a blog with maybe a high school diploma.

Tought call."

---------------------------

You mean people like Robert Schiller?

Is that a tought call, retard?

Westchester Chick said...

Economics is all about psychology anyway. If you tell people things are good they will believe things are good until it starts to hit them in the pocketbook. Unlike that guy earlier in the week that thinks everything is fine because he hit traffic on the way to the lake and everyone was just relaxing on their boats when he got there. He doesn't yet realize that the traffic is just all the illegal aliens now on the roads and that the average family now has 3 cars instead of the 1 car they had 50 years ago. Unfortunately for the economists spewing this sh*t, the psychology is shifting because people are feeling the lies. Almost everyone in my company is feeling it a little. We each pay more for towards health insurance, they rarely give more than 1-2% raises and it costs 1/3 as much to fill up your tank, the energy to run your home costs significantly more - not to mention a movie costs $10. Instead of just chopping massive headcount every 5-10 years like they used to, they regularly chop just a few heads randomly so that it is hard to feel any security at all. It's not just the bottom-performers either - it's usually the people that don't have their heads far enough up someones *ss. It's easy to believe the political sh*t if things are going well. But I'm definitely a lot worse off than I was 5 years ago and I am so not the only one.

Anonymous said...

The term "expert" should ONLY be used in the context of someone performing some physical act that takes years to master. All else, including especially any "skill" involving solely verbal communication, should be excluded. Yeah, that includes professors, housing analysts, even Stephen Hawking (who can't physically prove anything he claims to be happening in the universe).

If you don't agree with me, F'off - I'M the decider!

Anonymous said...

First they are playing dumb because they don't want to cause a panic

Secondly, they are acting dumb because their NWO puppet masters told them to.

period.

Anonymous said...

BEWARE OF RUPERT MURDOCH and his bid for DOW JONES


where the fock are the anti trust lawyers.

BUST UP THE MEDIA INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX


BUST UP THE REIC

MOST OF ALL, BUST UP THE OIL OLIGARCHY THEY HAVE A 87% STRANGLE HOLD ON OUR REFINERY CAPACITY.

AND HOW COME ALL THE LIBERAL ENVIROMENTAL THUGS SAY NOTHING ABOUT THE IMPACT OF 30MMILLION ILLEGALS ON THE US ENVIRONMENT???!?!?!?!?

Anonymous said...

>> Tought call.

Not for someone who knows how to spell. Answer: Option 2. The "experts" (political, economic, military, etc.) have led us down the road to total destruction. Yeah, they're SO smart...

Anonymous said...

the monkeys DO know what's is happening, they simple refuse to say it. Don't want to UPSET anybody, need to keep the con game rolling along.

Anonymous said...

Almost everyone in my company is feeling it a little. We each pay more for towards health insurance, they rarely give more than 1-2% raises

not to mention a movie costs $10.
--------------------------------

Where the hell do you work? My last 3 raises were 14% (promotion more than raise), 7% and 5%. No wonder you think the economy is in bad shape. What a whiny little bitch you are. My boss won't pay me more, wahhh wahhh wahh. Here's a crazy thought, find a new. If you have a skill to offer, someone will pay for it. The fact you are only getting 1% raises means you have nothing more to offer your employer.

By saying "we" only get 1% raises I am assuming you are in some union where everyone gets paid the same. Only people worse off that 5 years ago are slobs like you. Uneducated, unskilled union filth. You were paid way too much to start with and are slowly coming down to your true value which sorry to say is a lot lower than your earnings today. No company will ever pay you $25 an hour to sit around all day doing nothing. We can pay someone in Ukraine $10 a day and get twice as much work.

You're finished pal. You can bitch all you want, vote for a Democrat or Ron Paul or whatever other socialist comes along with a plan to "save" America. Not going to make a difference, you can't stop progress. In 5 years you will look back on 2007 and think of these as the good old days. I suggest you get your ass in gear and start adapting to the new realities ASAP.

And OMG a movie ticket complaint, grandpa is that you? Next thing ou'll complain about is these crazy kids today with their rock and roll music.

Anonymous said...

also love when I read in the MSM that "nobody" anticipated this decline. Uh, ever read HP or any of the other bubble blogs? Or read The Economist?

if Bush read european papers, he'd have known that what he was saying was BS too!

Anonymous said...

Illegal Alien Janitor convicted of sexual assault on student

http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0531sr-janitor0601-ON-CP.html



ACLU files lawsuit against county for treatment of TB patient

http://www.azcentral.com/12news/news/articles/0530tbguy0530-CP.html

jymkata said...

Didn't you know that in classic economic thinking - bubbles CAN'T exist.

I think that's the big reason why egghead, academic economists can't see these bubbles...well, that and the fact that they are paid by groups of people (like the NAR) that profit from said bubbles.

Mammoth said...

Why don't the monkeys who are paid to understand basic economics understand basic economics?
-------------------------------
Back in college, my Economics class had ~200 students in it. The day that the professor discussed Reaganomics and the ‘Trickle-Down Theory,’ I waited until everyone had left the class so that I could ask him a simple question.

“Could you please explain to me why Reagan’s ‘Trickle-Down Theory’ did not actually work and produce results?” I asked him.

The professor glanced in both directions to ensure that nobody else was within earshot, looked at me right in the eyes, and said:

“If I REALLY understood economics, do you think that I would be working here?”

That just sid it all.

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

********************************

In Evolutionary terms that Orang must have been one of the slow ones to only have evolved to the level of realtor!

Mark in San Diego said...

Of little note in MSM or here at HP is the fact that the 10 year treasury is closing in on 5% - thus pushing up the 30 year mortgage rates. . .those who will be lucky to leave an ARM, will be paying a much higher mortgage than expected. . .also higher 30 year will take even more borrowers out of the market. . .can we say "China is selling US bonds???"

China would rather buy US securities and own companies - at least they have some chance of getting paid back!

Anonymous said...

When have you ever heard negative predictions from the Fed. It's always "minimal" "temperary" and "sound footing". They are chearleaders, not unbiased economists.

Anonymous said...

Supply side worked, tax revenues increased by A LOT once tax cuts were enacted. Unfortunately spending increased even more, way more and hence the huge deficits of the 80s. Had spending been kept constant, our debt today would be 1/3 of what it is.

What college was this where an economics prof couldn't figure out that much.

Anonymous said...

mark in san diego is right, mortgage rates are going up. So if you wait a year and get a 15% discount on a home, but mortgage rates go up as to make your monthly payment 15% higher than today, what exactly have you gained?

bickerer said...

Damb this troll we got here is a real baby. A baby troll.

Incredibly obvious that this is his first time around the block. Comments show no experience. Great example this trust the experts shit.

Hey baby troll, think and read all you can for at least 5-10 years and then if you're smart, and you may be, you'll have something to share.

Or just stay here and let us mock you further.

Anonymous said...

- GM sales up 9.6% in May.

- Housing sales up 16% in April

- wages up 3.9% compared to last year

Yet in HPland we're in a depression.

Mammoth said...

Westchester Chick,
You are right - times are tough and gettng tougher, and there isn’t much job security anymore.

Anono 2:43 PM was a bit harsh on you, but if you filter out the nastiness, the message is that if a person is not happy with their current situation then they need to change something. It is not always easy but it can be done.

I worked as a printer for years after high school, then at age 29 decided to improve my lot in life by going back to school to earn an Engineering degree. Working and paying my own way through college was tough, and yes I did eat a lot of Ramen; just last year I finally paid off my student loans. Having been in this profession for 10 years and being battered by the usual layoffs and lower-paying replacement jobs, in March I jumped ship to a company which pays 12% more than the job I left. This took courage.

On the side I have started a plant nursery – raising ornamental plants & vegetable starts and selling them to local shops. Maybe in the future it will be possible to quit the day job to do this full-time and become fully self-employed.

Improving one’s situation in life involves taking on some risk, but at least this opportunity is available to you and to everyone who is reading this
-Mammoth.

Anonymous said...

For those of you in MA.

www.boston.com/business/ticker/
2007/06/foreclosure_res.html

I can't imagine this being reality since I have been told numerous times that real estate only goes up. I would like to see the realtors who sold to these foreclosures explain this and why it's happening.

Paul E. Math said...

"So if you wait a year and get a 15% discount on a home, but mortgage rates go up as to make your monthly payment 15% higher than today, what exactly have you gained?"

Analysis:
In terms of monthly payment, you are right, it's a wash. Your line of thinking is probably pretty popular given that we, for the most part, have become a 'monthly payments' society - we care only about what the monthly payment is.

But consider a couple things:

1) when you sell your home, which everyone does eventually, your profit is an extra 15% if you wait until the prices drop before buying.

2) with a higher interest rate, a higher percentage of your monthly payment is interest and therefore tax deductible.

Conclusion: you're better off waiting for prices to drop even if interest rates rise enough to make your monthly payment the same.

Paul E. Math said...

"- Housing sales up 16% in April"

That was only new home sales that were up 16%, not all home sales.

Also, new home sales were up compared to March but compared to April of last year they were still down 10.6%.

And another thing, the median price, of new homes, were down 10.9% from a year ago.

"- wages up 3.9% compared to last year"

A wage rise is great, that will almost keep up with the 4.8% annualized rise in the Consumer Price Index we experienced in the first quarter this year.

So let's all celebrate that 16% rise in new home sales, yeah!

silly realtrolls said...

I hope that rates go up so home prices go down. You can always refi a high rate to a lower rate, but you can't refi a low rate with a high price.

You can refi a $300K mortgage at 9% when the rates go lower. You can't refi a $500K mortgage at 5%, because it will be very hard to get a lower rate than that on a 30 year note. You'll also get a bigger mortgage tax deduction with higher rates and lower prices, since you can't deduct the principle.

I'll take the lower price and higher rate anytime. That also shows you the stupidity of our resident realtroll.

Anonymous said...

"Where the hell do you work? My last 3 raises were 14% (promotion more than raise), 7% and 5%. No wonder you think the economy is in bad shape. What a whiny little bitch you are. My boss won't pay me more, wahhh wahhh wahh."

Ladies & gentlemen, I present you a typical Republican. And he still calls the working girl a bitch just for venting her frustrations against this con administration and collapsed economy. However, he has no balls to call a man, face to face, a bitch. He won't fight in Iraq either, since he's a pussy, so he "supports the troops" from very far away, applying magnetic ribbons on gas guzzler (upside down lease, btw), while playing macho behind the computer screen only. Another proud Republican, indeed.

PS: Raises of 14% over little wage = still little wage.

Anonymous said...

For a moment, I thought that was a picture from Bush.

Anonymous said...

"- GM sales up 9.6% in May. "

Here Republican troll who needs to kiss Karl Rove's butt to make a buck:


"Doomed GM plant is most productive
Rankings show GM plant slated to close takes least time of any in North America to assemble a car.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
May 31 2007: 3:59 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The most productive auto plant in North America is doomed - it's on the list of plants that General Motors is closing as the world's largest automaker slashes capacity in a bid to stem losses.

The annual ranking of auto plant productivity by Harbour Consulting found GM's Oshawa No. 2 plant is the most productive in the North American auto industry.
GM narrowed the productivity gap with its Japanese rivals in 2006, according to a study released Thursday, but its most productivity plant is slated to close next year.
GM narrowed the productivity gap with its Japanese rivals in 2006, according to a study released Thursday, but its most productivity plant is slated to close next year.
Video More video
CNN's Eunice Yoon reports on how Toyota is dealing with being No. 1 after passing GM in quarterly car sales.

That plant is among the plants that GM (Charts, Fortune 500) plans to close in coming years as it seeks to get capacity closer in line with demand."

James Dean said...


Anonymous said...
Hmmm let's see;

Option 1: Take economic advice from people with PhDs from the top schools, decades of experience.

Option 2: Listen to raving lunatics on a blog with maybe a high school diploma.

Tought call.


Dude, you are clueless. I am not saying Keith or any of us are 100% correct - at the end of the day, noone can predict the future.

BUT... Economics is not really scientific as much as physcological and geopolitical. If every economist was so great at knowing the future, they would not work and be retired wealthy by age 30.

WHICH GETS TO THE REAL PROBLEM....anyone working is (unconsiously mostly) spewing lies according to the interests of their parent companies. This includes every specialization.

I won't go on BUT before you come on here sounding so smug - you may want to grow up a little (it's called wisdom and they don't teach it in school). Consider that human motives are the same irregardless of if you are the local crack dealer or the CEO of the world's largest bank.

Look around at the world and it's experts. Look back at history. Really LOOK!!! They are wrong as often as right (if not more). I, for one, have the wisdom to trust myself/logic and only listen to people who have no real motive to tell me lies.

Anonymous said...

Our resident troll listened to expert economist David Liareah. HAHAHA

Anonymous said...

Supposedly prices are up but so are foreclsoures. How could it be? Why didn't they sell for a profit instead of losing all that equity and ruining their credit? Someone explain it to me

Anonymous said...

Hey troll explain that one. These people have all this equity in their home why did they let it forclose. tick,tick,tick we are waiting

serindippity said...

My college Econ 101 professor taught what was the worst class of my college career. It was ploddingly slow and indadequate and the guy taught like we were dim, and so when nobody volunteered comments or questions, he assumed we were confused, instead of bored, and went even slower.

He went on and on with circumlocutions to avoid using the word "derivative" --- supposedly a non-calculus Econ class but this was a good university and even freshmen knew what a derivative is. "Hey maybe back at Stanford you were teaching dull jocks, but here we're not that dumb."

Myself being the vexatious physics student taking general ed requirements, I once got him all flustered by asking, "excuse me, what exactly are the UNITS on those 'graphs' you keep on drawing?" What units does the hypothetical demand-meter register? (Neuronal brain stem urges per millisecond?)

The class laughed. In actual science every graph MUST have clear units to be worth anything.

The professor's name?

Ben Bernanke.

True story.