A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
Yes.the Hello Kitty(TM) blissful ignorance
I think most people DO get it, but they are still like "deer caught in the headlights". . . the usual "wait till the market improves" mentality is wearing thin. . .I think most people in a bad loan situation have that very bad feeling in their gut. . .returning stateside Monday morning, I do think the Euro economy is pretty good right now, but the Spanish housing meltdown may spread. . .but, since the world stock markets have picked up the bubble where the housing market left off, who knows?? The housing mess may not bring the whole economy down. . .with the US dollar in the crapper, US stocks look cheap to Europeans and Asians, etc. . .we may keep this game going for a while longer yet. . ."alls I know" (as they say in Ohio) is that condos and houses back in San Diego are going down in price fast - despite "official" statistics - a condo in my building has been marked down for 700k to 610K, and it is STILL on the market 6 months later. . .the building next door (AquaVista) is known in the real estate world as the "black hole" of value - all units are now selling below developer 2004 prices. . .and it is a huge 300 unit building.
Totally. I think most folks are still clueless. Look at the stock market. I rent. I have no debt and drive used cars and have an excellent income. People still look at me like I crawled from a swamp. Trust me, this is going to be far worse than most, even Keith, fully understand. The fact that it is still an ongoing, in denial, bubble is mind boggling. Get your affairs in order.
Sure, just read Bloodhound Blog or Realty Times
GM Subprime Slimed!Read---> http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=171GM’s Q1 2007 earnings plunge 90% as subprime lending from their GMAC family of companies comes home to roost. Ironically, it appears that the lending-housing debacle may force GM to close plants and have layoffs which will inevitably put more pressure on housing.Originally aired on: 5/3/2007 on Nightly Business ReportRunning Time: 2 minutes 37 seconds
Get what? Oh you mean that house prices in Orange County are up 0.8% YOY. Or that prices are also up in Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, Nashville, Memphis and a host of other cities?Get that aside from Miami condos and Phoenix/Las Vegas the supposed housing crash is nowhere to be seen? And even in Phoenix/Las Vegas the "crash" right now means a 5% decline in prices?Yeah I get it.
Anonymous said... Get what? Oh you mean that house prices in Orange County are up 0.8% YOY. Or that prices are also up in Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, Nashville, Memphis and a host of other cities?Get that aside from Miami condos and Phoenix/Las Vegas the supposed housing crash is nowhere to be seen? And even in Phoenix/Las Vegas the "crash" right now means a 5% decline in prices?Yeah I get it. May 05, 2007 12:56 PM ------------No, I do not think you get it at all. You're just grasping at straws which are the last shards of the bubble before it heads down. 0.8 % YOY!!!!LOL after inflation thats a negative #. Tell the recently unemployed New Century workers in OC your thoughts and I think you'll get an earful & have a changed perspective.This is the lag/transition phase from massive rises in realty prices, i.e. bull trap, where the last of the GFs are taken in and the first to come to realize how foolish they really are. If you owned pre-bubble then you're fine. If you do not own, you're fine. If you bought into the bubble but stayed conservative & you've got a long/stable time horizon you're fine.But if you bought into the bubble with anything toxic &/or you'll need to sell w/in the next decade then be prepared to bring a check to the closing and don't count on having any "equity" for you're next place. Renting will not be viable, but just give you a life line in the form of a slow bleed each month of cash.If you got it then you'd realize this is not an stock bubble bursting in a matter of months, bur an RE bubble that will drop 5% a year for the next 4-5 years after the lag year & then bounce around 0% +/- 2-3% for another 5 or so years while inflation continues to rise thus making the depreciation worse. But these forced combined are what is needed to revert to the mean in real terms in regards to the true value of housing.Basically the market got ahead of itself in terms of pricing by a decade, so the 2005 price is the 2015 price in real terms.FYI-in case you were wondering who that is about to drop into the manhole, that YOU!!!
Schumer wants aid for subprime borrowers Democratic Senator wants $300 million to help borrowers avoid foreclosure(and now it's time for the goverment bail out)http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/03/real_estate/schumer.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Goverment bailout begins...Schumer wants aid for subprime borrowers.Democratic Senator wants $300 million to help borrowers avoid foreclosure.May 3 2007: 2:03 PM EDTWASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Community groups that help subprime borrowers try to save their homes from foreclosure would receive $300 million in aid under legislation introduced by Democratic Senator Charles Schumer Thursday.The infusion of federal money would help consumer groups reach out to troubled borrowers and, in some cases, provide new financing directly. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) The groups that would benefit from the money are in direct contact with delinquent homeowners and guide them through the complicated steps they can take to save their homes, said Sen. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of a Senate subcommittee on housing and sponsor of the legislation."They know how to do it. Their role is critical," he said of the consumer groups that aim to help troubled borrowers."We've learned that borrowers who are delinquent on their loans are at a distinct disadvantage," when trying to change the terms of a bad loan, the New York Democrat said.Companies such as Countrywide Financial (up $0.48 to $37.74, Charts, Fortune 500), Fannie Mae (up $0.88 to $60.70, Charts), Wells Fargo (up $0.12 to $35.81, Charts, Fortune 500) and Wachovia (up $0.23 to $55.60, Charts, Fortune 500) have made loans in the subprime market.Schumer's legislation is the first proposal from federal lawmakers aimed at dampening the crisis in the subprime mortgage market that serves borrowers with damaged credit. http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/03/real_estate/schumer.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
"Oh you mean that house prices in Orange County are up 0.8% YOY. Or that prices are also up in Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, Nashville, Memphis and a host of other cities?"This guy again? Sorry, buddy, but you won't goad anyone into buying in this inflated market. Sales have plummeted everywhere, even OC, Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, SLC, SA, Nashville, Memphis, and everywhere. Nobody is buying in any of those places. Subprime is over, and more and more people want to rent, everywhere. But your motivation is the key here. What do you have to prove to any of us? That you have a non-liquid "gain" that you will never see, unless you sell and move out or move down to something smaller than you have? Or that you can take a loan out against your own "equity", whatever amount it may be, and then basically be renting money from a bank? Is that what you want to prove to us?
i think 150,000 IBMers are about to "Get IT":www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2007/pulpit_20070504_002027.htmlLast year I wrote a series of columns on management problems at IBM Global Services, explaining how the executive ranks from CEO Sam Palmisano on down were losing touch with reality, bidding contracts too low to make a profit then mismanaging them in an attempt to make a profit anyway, often to the detriment of IBM customers. Those columns and the reaction they created within the ranks at IBM showed just how bad things had become.Well they just got worse.This is according to my many friends at Big Blue, who believe they are about to undergo the biggest restructuring of IBM since the Gerstner days, only this time for all the wrong reasons.The IBM project I am writing about is called LEAN and the first manifestation of LEAN was this week's 1,300 layoffs at Global Services, which generated almost no press. Thirteen hundred layoffs from a company with more than 350,000 workers is nothing, so the yawning press reaction is not unexpected. But this week's "job action," as they refer to it inside IBM management, was as much as anything a rehearsal for what I understand are another 100,000+ layoffs to follow, each dribbled out until some reporter (that would be me) notices the growing trend, then dumped en masse when the jig is up, but no later than the end of this year.
Geese, house prices are down in most markets. Throw in incentives and they're REALLY down. The HP troll is certifiably stoopid!
I see the spin from the bitter renters has changed dramatically. A year or so ago prices were supposed to fall 50% by now. Prices are flat or going up marginally, as in 0.8% YOY in OC. So the new spin now is well prices are up but they're down if you factor inflation into it.What's next, prices go up 10% and you start complaining that 10% isn't really good since your baseball card collection in your mom's basement appreciated 15%.Whatever your spin is, the fact remains you cannot afford to buy a house and you never will.
Geese, house prices are down in most markets. Throw in incentives and they're REALLY down. check out housing-watch.com and you will see prices are up in most markets and down in only a few
eye opening videohttp://www.safehaven.com/article-7485.htm
There is still evidently "pent up demand" up here in Seattle. I see places still selling and recently prices have upticked IN THE NICER AREAS ONLY. There are plenty of CA Equity Locusts coming out of winter slumber that sold last year in CA and are now buying up here, and they are buying in the more expensive areas. And we all know how activity in the high end jacks up the median and puts a smiley face on the market.Now lets talk about the REST of the area. Price reduction, 2nd chance sales due to buyer financing falling thru (the credit screws are tightening), lots of FBs trying to rent a SFH as a duplex in order to cover their "oops I bought at the top" costs. Lots of rent to own ads. I know this because I dig and research what is going on. But talking to people casually it is still "Seattle is special" and "it won't happen here because of Microsoft and Boeing".......Like I have stated from the beginning...Seattle is one of the last dominos to fall...but fall it will.Unless of course the Zune knocks off the iPod or the Microhoo/Yasoft merger creates another monopoly for MS....LOL.
there is nothing to get,housing is a basic life necessity.most will rent some will buy either way you are in the real estate market all your life. only at different levels. Some pay high rent some pay low rent some buy a condo some buy a mansionThe avg person historically is, was, and always be, a renter. The main reason there will be a lot of forclosures is renters had a chance, with with loose lending practices to do what most renters dream of everyday, OWN. They will lose their homes prices will go down in most low end areas and the natural balance between owners and renters will be restored.
The real housing statistics are misleading, especially now that there are fewer sales - if one million dollar house sells in a month in SmallVille, then the average or median price is one million . . .fewer houses are selling because many people cannot get a 100% loan, anymore - so - people with good credit and people with cash will buy the better homes and condos - and bring the average price up. I see that in San Diego - a nice condo or house with a view will sell if it is priced well. . .the junk on the market stays there forever. .and nice things cost more than junk, so the average price has not come down much. . .but - if you look within a building or neighborhood, the prices have come down 20% in many cases based on 2005 and 2006.
There two NPTP (No Pot To Pissin) in my office who are in debt up to their eyeballs and their Option ARM mortgages are going to reset next month, AND still have not F(*^ing clue.I think these people are not exception, as they are the rule.Amazing.
Here's an article for the guy so in love with "the OC". It's about illegal aliens that poop in south Orange County right on the streets. This is happening in Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, and Dana Point:http://tinyurl.com/2hj36dThat's what you get for your $600,000.
"Whatever your spin is, the fact remains you cannot afford to buy a house and you never will." Uhh, we can afford a house. Today. Tommorow. Any time. An illegal immigrant making $14,000 a year can afford a house. He buys them for $700,000 each. Anyone can buy a house. You don't see it? You can't be this stupid, can you?
I just won a bidding war for a condo in downtown San Francisco. All you bitter renters can keep blogging from your parents basements.
Realtors keep claiming housing prices are going up while the government keeps calling for a bailout of lenders and borrowers. It sure is a strange world we live in
Some claim housing prices are going up at the same time lenders are going bankrupt due to foreclosures. So why didn't the lenders take those foreclosed homes and sell them for a profit? Maybe the thought didn't enter their mind. It all makes sense now.
"mr san fran said... I just won a bidding war for a condo in downtown San Francisco. All you bitter renters can keep blogging from your parents basements. May 05, 2007 6:27 PM"Congrats, I guess. I know people trying to sell to get out of S.F.(nice place in a good location too!) Their realtor says it's much more difficult for people to qualify for a mortgage now. The pool of buyers is shrinking. They've reduced their price once and are offering incentives as well. Good thing his employer subsidizes his house. He says he knows a lot of people on edge and there's a lot of crappy mortgages floating around. So, once again, congrats, I guess.
Anyone can buy a house. You don't see it? You can't be this stupid, can you? May 05, 2007 6:24 PM Yes he can! Just you watch.
mr san fran said... I just won a bidding war for a condo in downtown San Francisco. All you bitter renters can keep blogging from your parents basements. May 05, 2007 6:27 PM Boy you are an idiot! I bet there wasn't even another buyer. Dumb sucker!
"Oh you mean that house prices in Orange County are up 0.8% YOY. Or that prices are also up in Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Salt Lake City......."Troll,Listen.I've been tracking the Utah MLS number of houses for sale since last year. We are approaching a 100% increase in inventory year over year. This does not even include most of the huge numbers of cracker box houses they are throwing up on previously productive farmland.The guy that said: "This is the lag/transition phase" is dead on.What happened in Utah is this-There was press (including in the famous "gaga over housing" Time article) that Utah was under valued.Equity locust "investors" awooped in and started prices up. There was some increased in-migration but this doesn't fully explain what happened. Locals panicked thinking they would be priced out forever. Many of them got the only loans they thought they could afford and most of them took on onerous levels of debt.Today I'm listening to 101.9FM do a remote from a cookie cutter development in Herriman. They are offering mexican food in honor Cinco de Mayo, as well as free T-shirts and toys for the kiddies! I'm laughing my head off!The news does stories of recently married 20 somethings out shopping for 300,000.00 dollar houses that are having a hard time making the cut and begging mom and dad to spot them some cash. After all mom and dad, it can only go up!I'm laughing my head off!A local reporter ended his "report" saying that "experts" project DOUBLE DIGIT rates of appreciation EVERY YEAR for the NEXT SEVERAL YEARS! I'M LAUGHING MY HEAD OFF!!!!
Want to see ignorance in action? Come to Arizona
Found a beautiful place at 1.5 times the bogus average wage, deep in woodsy hollow, with no neighbors within sighting or soundings, verdant and fertile with public road passing the drive. Feel the isolationists fear of being deep in the woods and a sitting duck????, Fed 50% of the time, owe no one nothing, no one owes me nothing, sorry i had to pass on that one, due to no compatriotness.
"What happened in Utah is this-There was press (including in the famous "gaga over housing" Time article) that Utah was under valued.Equity locust "investors" awooped in and started prices up."ONE OF THEM WAS THE INFAMOUS CASEY SERIN!!
Compatriotness verses tomatoes!!! at 1.99 a pound today????
Did Monsanto sabatoge my seed to earth donations???
Anon 8:27 -- I'm laughin' right along with you... A lot of that building inventory is in my backyard in N Utah county. It's gonna be great to watch!Happyrenter
There is a couple that is trying to sell their 4bdm 2.5 bath for $915K. It started at $935K but during the peak of the housing market the same exact house (it was a development from the 60's so there are lots of similar houses) in better condition only sold for $825K. This creampuff still has avocado green kitchen appliances and formica countertop and has never been updated. I would say they don't get it.
I am expecting triple digit increases in housing every year for the next few decades. By 2020 every house will be worth over $1 billion. Anyone who doesn't buy a home this spring will be priced out forever and have to rent with their landlords raising the rent 50% every year.
Ignorance is bliss but it doesn't last forever!
Who says housing prices are up in OC?Housing medians are notoriously inaccurate...different mixes will skew the median. You have to look at price per square foot, but even that can be off.I made some money, not enough, shorting homebuilders and New Century financial...and I OWN A HOUSE. BFD. Housing isn't a great investment, it just seems that way during bubble periods. The Nasdaq had been a great investment from 1990-2000...so it was smart to buy in 2000 right, I mean it was a great investment...goes up 10 fold over 10 years? Anyone who didn't was living in his parents' basement. Is Schiller, the guy who called the nasdaq bubble and is calling the real estate one now, living is his parents' basement?
Anonymous said... I see the spin from the bitter renters has changed dramatically. A year or so ago prices were supposed to fall 50% by now. Prices are flat or going up marginally, as in 0.8% YOY in OC. So the new spin now is well prices are up but they're down if you factor inflation into it. What's next, prices go up 10% and you start complaining that 10% isn't really good since your baseball card collection in your mom's basement appreciated 15%. Whatever your spin is, the fact remains you cannot afford to buy a house and you never will. May 05, 2007 3:18 PM------------Sorry I've owned 2 homes in my life. Planning on owning again after the next 4 years of 5%+ depreciation kicks in (more when you factor in inflation).For all the trolls who do not understand why inflation needs to be factored into the equation for housing here are a few wiki links:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_valuehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_interest_rateI currently rent a lovely & well appointed Townhome w/ a garage in the Old Towne Alexandria area for about 2/3 the carrying costs if I tried to purchase the same home w/ a mortgage. I have excellent credit (780 range last time I checked), a six figure income, 6 months salary in the bank, a fully funded retirement portfolio, two paid off cars (an 07 & an 06), pay my credit cards off in full each month, eat out & shop w/ any concern and put away 1k+/month. If I owned right now I would be a financial slave to my home. I chose not to. I chose freedom of choice in my consumption & not housing based forced consumption that cuts into my choices.Good luck in whatever life choices you make. Just insure you make them based upon independent thought & nothing else.
"I just won a bidding war for a condo in downtown San Francisco."PROVE IT.
mr san fran said... I just won a bidding war for a condo in downtown San Francisco. All you bitter renters can keep blogging from your parents basements. May 05, 2007 6:27 PM-----------If you define winning as some GF purchasing the SF condo/crapbox then congrats.If you mean that you placed the bid that was accepted and you got it at a STEEP reduction from list &/or incentives then congrats.If you mean that you actually paid above list in a soft market and the list price was at least efficient for current market conditions then OK, congrats but you could have done better.If you mean you paid above an unrealistic list in a soft market projected to decline/flatten for the next decade then I think you need to seek counsel and try to get out of the contract NOW.
A bail out of 300M ain't gonnna do jack shit!! The lenders will more than likely suck that fund dry, making themselves whole, while the home debtors continue to sink with only one eventuality
My neighbor doesnt get it! He just sold his house and pocketed about 100k. I commented how he did good since the market will come down and he said OH NO IT WILL ONLY KEEP RISING.... what the fuck??!! I reminded him we live in a shithole of SOCAL called Riverside, so does he really expect these 120k shitboxes to one day reach 1MILLION??? He had a confused look on his face. The guy is career Marine.. NUFF SAID.BTW..He said he is moving into a new ghome th at is 3 times what he was paying. Thats approx. 4500 a month. DUMB SHIT JAR HEAD!!!
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