April 25, 2007



anonymous wimp said...

But, but, but.......house prices went up by less than the margin of error in part of San Francisco last month......


bozonian said...

Actually, it's worse than it looks

1) This is the spring buying season, where the most sales occur during the year

2) The mortgage tightening didn't happen until halfway through this earning season. Just wait until the new policy of "no loans for losers" takes full effect. Oh boy.

You ain't seen nuthin' yet. B-b-b-Booyah you just ain't seen nuthin' yet.

bozonian said...

Top 10 reasons why housing is crashing:

10) Bad Feng Shui. Move your sofa over an inch or two and you'll sell your house.

9) Low Inventory. Of Saint Joseph statues. If we could bury one upside down in our yard, our house would sell.

8) Anna Nicole. People were so glued to their televisions over this, they didn't go out house shopping.

7) Congress. Them libruls took are money.

6) Illegal Immigrants. They took are jobs.

5) Racism. The Man gave us too much money. Our civil rights got violated.

4) The Jews. The jews gave us too much money.

3) God made our house prices go down. God is punishing San Francisco for them evil homosexual marriages. I'll have to send more money to the TV preacher.

2) The Constitution. Arnold can't become president and save us. Sniff sniff. We're freakin' doomed!

And the number one reason for the housing crash...

1) Global Warming! Global Warming made February way too cold to buy a house. The loan officers all froze up. Global Warming took are jobs. Stupid Global Warming.

Doktaire said...

You know, the REIC should welcome the end of denial. The sooner we can get this storm out of the way, the sooner they can get to making a decent honest living the old fashioned way.

sojourner said...

I'm singing in the RAIN
Just SINGING in the RAIN!!!



This crash is so much fun I can't stand it - I got out just in time and now rent!!!

I can't jump and dance at parties or get togethers because that would be muy malo and embarrassing lol, but I can strut on HP!!! WooHoo!!!!

Thank you HP and to my very very few housing bear friends for advice and support during the cold nights in the forest, now we have been vindicated...

Frank said...

What's funny is that the anon-wimps are still saying "there's no meltdown" and yet the full on mortgage shutdown hasn't even begun yet. It's started at the highest levels but the shyster boiler room mortgage "brokers" down the hall from my office are still at it every day on the phones. They're only a couple of months away (if that) from having the mortgage companies say "sorry, no more apps that aren't fully income verified and credit score 720+"

THAT is when the major huge meltdown crash is going to happen. When only income-verified people with pristine credit can get loans (the way it should be, anyway) then you'll see the phonies and anon-wimps STFU.


Anonymous said...

You must have a lot of free time to search for cool photos. Cool photo...

Anonymous said...

seriously now, homes are just not selling because there are no "interested buyers" out there with realtors looking!

Anonymous said...

This coming news could top todays home sale numbers.

April 24, 2007, 1:38PM
Earnings Preview: Countrywide Financial

© 2007 The Associated Press
NEW YORK — Countrywide Financial Corp. reports first-quarter results Thursday. Following is a summary of key developments and analyst commentary related to the period.

OVERVIEW: The first three months of the year were treacherous for some areas of the mortgage industry. Many lenders catering to home buyers at the bottom of the credit ladder saw their stocks battered during the quarter, and several mortgage banks went bankrupt.

When Countrywide Financial, the biggest independent U.S. mortgage lender, reports first-quarter results, analysts will be looking for clues to whether the cracks in "subprime" mortgage lending are in danger of spreading upward.

As interest rates on mortgages jumped and more stretched borrowers missed payments, investors began shying away from mortgage debt backed by bad credit in the first quarter. For some lenders, the result was disastrous: Their loan portfolios lost a lot of value, their financial backers pulled the plug on their financing and some were forced to close shop.

Although less than 10 percent of the Calabassas, Calif.-based lender's mortgage loan portfolio is "subprime," the subprime shakeout still threatens Countrywide.

There is less demand for mortgage debt as a whole as investors are not as enthusiastic about bidding for mortgage loans associated with any type of risk. Mortgage lenders report they are having trouble selling "Alt-A" loans, which have better credit than subprime loans.

EXPECTATIONS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast profit of 77 cents on $2.58 billion revenue.

ANALYST TAKE: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Frederick Cannon recently said he is concerned about a statistic in Countrywide's monthly loan statistics for March. Whereas six months ago the average value of a home Countrywide repossessed because of delinquency was $160,000. Last month, the average value of a foreclosed home was $192,000.

That indicates the credit erosion is spreading to borrowers who took out bigger loans to buy more valuable homes, he said. Cannon said it may mean credit problems are spreading from subprime into other types of mortgage debt.

"While we continue to believe that Countrywide is a best-in-class mortgage company, it cannot avoid the impact of industry deterioration," he said.

SHARE PERFORMANCE: Countrywide's stock fell 20.8 percent during the first quarter to close March at $33.64.

uh huh said...

this coming from the guy that said the Dow would be at 8800 at the end of last year......nice call Keith

Anonymous said...

Watch Dr. Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics discusses the current housing bubble and its effects on California.Great description of currect housing bubble.

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyOWuczlJCA

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrWuZQ9770c

Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILW8OolM0Lo

Batman said...

If yer not buyin houses, yer with the terrists.

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

I understand that we are in one Hell of a mess, but this madness can go on far longer than either of us think. 15 out of 16 up days has only happened twice before. I'm a bull as long as the clowns can continue to pull the lids over the eyes of the sheeple; However, I believe as a famous blogger has said, "that we are friggin doomed".

As a famous blogger has said, We are figgin doomed

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

The Daily Reckoning

Miami, Florida

Tuesday, April 24, 2007


*** More cranes than China...more banks than Zurich...more liquidity than
ever before...

*** No deals on wheels for old fogies...smart money can sometimes sound
really stupid...

*** Selling bonds for a 'presto-like' result...housing prices continue
their slump...and more!


What a mad, mad, mad world!

We are at the Miami Airport. In our brief look at Miami this afternoon, we
saw so many construction cranes we thought we were in the Far East. What's
going on we wondered?

But looking more closely we found that the high-rises were either condo
towers...or banks and credit institutions. We've never seen so many banks
outside Zurich.

As near as we could tell, the banks must lend money to people so they can
buy condos.

Meanwhile, the money continues to flow - uphill, downhill, and around

Goldman has just launched its biggest leveraged buyout fund ever. And
private equity firms bought 654 companies last year, for $375 billion. And
look at that Shanghai stock market - up 250% since 2005.

Deals...deals...and deals on wheels...and wheels on deals.

Where the money comes from is obvious; there has never before, been such a
huge 'wave of liquidity' sloshing over the world. What we wonder is when
it will smash into some major low-lying city...and how much damage it will

But, of course, we are old fogies. The smart money is betting that this is
a wave without end.

And sometimes we wonder, too. There seems to be no stopping it. It is as
if the old rules had been, well...waived. Money supplies worldwide have
been inflating at three times the rate of GDP growth for years - 10% in
the United States...10% in Europe...14% in Asia.

When the old rules were still being enforced, you could inflate for a
while...but not for too long. At first, merchants, manufacturers,
investors and consumers would be tricked. They'd mistake the new money for
the real thing. They'd rush to increase their investments, their capacity,
their spending...and their debts. This would create a boom and, usually,
get a president re-elected. But then, after a hesitation of about 18
months, monetary inflation would leak into consumer prices. And then there
was trouble.

Creditors hate to see consumer prices rise. Because it means that their
assets - cash, mortgages, bonds any fixed amount of money or income stream
- is becoming less valuable. So, when they saw inflation increasing, the
'bond vigilantes' used to ride out with guns blazing.

"We don't need no stinkin' inflation 'round here," they would say. They
would sell bonds to protect themselves. And presto...the problem would
take care of itself. Lower bond prices meant higher yields...which meant
that fewer new investment projects made sense (since the cost of borrowed
money had gone up)...and consumers found it harder to borrow money
too...which pushed down sales.

This slump corrected the problem. Bad investments were wiped out...savings
increased...inflation decreased.

But now what happens? We live in times that are just too wonderful. The
problem of consumer price inflation never seems to come up. It is as if we
had robbed a bank and no one called the cops. Heck, where's another one?

Inflation seems to go only as far as the nearest hedge fund...or private
equity fund...or Jackson Pollock painting...or Greenwich mansion...or
Chinese stock. And then it stops. No increase in the price of toilet
paper. No vigilantes getting worked up. No increase in bond yields. No
correction. No nothing...except people getting rich without working.

So, please don't take our investment advice, dear reader. We admit that we
don't know why this is happening...or when it will come to an end...or how
it will end.

But that it will come to an end, we have no doubt. For while the 'old'
rules might have been suspended, we will bet that they have not been

[Ed. Note: Much like the end of a rainbow, the end of this wave of
liquidity will most certainly lead to one thing...gold. Learn how this
precious yellow metal can save you from the inevitable.

Anonymous said...

Um didn't you say the same thing 6 months ago?

Anonymous said...

PS I am renting and I still think youre full of shit

Anonymous said...

PS I am renting and I still think youre full of shit

Anonymous said...

Apr 25 10:00 New Home Sales

Anonymous said...

Now the RE market is really screwed. How are we going to absorb an entire another planet of property!!

2 heavy hits in one day & new home sales #s come out tomorrow!!


Anonymous said...

......However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers.........

what.? come again? lower rates....give me a break......motivated seller's ? what does this mean? give it away to get out from under the note...is that what he means?

Anonymous said...

Red alert is too old. We need something with zip for the 21st century. Hence may I suggest:


Smokey Bill said...

Oh Man! My hand is on the panic button.

Besides shorting lenders, builders, and the auto industry, is there a safe haven for my cash? Proceeds from the recent sale of a home far exceed what the government will insure, not to mention what it was worth or what anyone could reasonably afford.

LOL – I just love a good meltdown!

scruffy balls said...

The folks at the govt are busy printing more money to give all of you minions who are slaves to the system.
How in the world is the median price from march 2006 nearly the same as march 2007? Prices are off 30% in parts of arizona.Lets get real folks.

simisteve said...

Ya Keith,
COOL photos, but can you you make it blink like NAR did TODAY.... I have a stupid question suggestion... If the bail out should manifest someway somehow, would sheeple still want to keep their house when the interest deduction is $0.00 dollars per year? Zero or one percent interest is the only way to prolong the crash and WTF are you going to write off to make that $2600 nut worthwhile? Wait! It's all good, I make $3000 a month...Don't worry, be happy! Seriously though.... We are in for bad times, all of us. Check out the SPAIN REIT news today.
DOMINOS, BIG F'N DOMINOS are going to fall...

Got Water?

buyerwillepb said...

About that "Bad Weather" excuse for terrible house sales...

Doesn't it make more sense that in bad weather MORE people would like to buy a place and have a nice warm, dry roof over there heads?

Anonymous said...

I agree only people with pristine credit should qualify for a loan. But the stated income loan is necessary for self-employed borrowers. The problem was it was being abused and used to qualify salaried borrowers. AND they started doing it with no down payment. 10% down, A+ credit and stated, self employed income is still a good risk loan. Once common sense underwriting starts being used again the market will really correct itself.

Anonymous said...

Is there any way a class action lawsuit could be initiated by honest homeowners against any part of or all of the REIC, for fraud, loss of $$$, and so on?

Anonymous said...

Now that the MSM is awakening from its slumber and reporting some semblance of truth I have to believe that most of todays sellers are selling because they have to. Surely everyone knows that flipping is finished. This makes real estate kind of like a game of wits. Who will win, the desperate home seller or the nonexistent buyer? Are there any homes selling at all?

Anglophile said...

Stop using terms like "full stop". You are not a limey.

cobra2411 said...


"NOAA - March 15, 2007 — The December 2006-February 2007 U.S. winter season had an overall temperature that was near average, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C...
...The global average temperature was the warmest on record for the December-February period..."


"...February was 1.8 degrees F (0.9 degrees C) below the 20th century average of 34.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C), placing it in the top third coldest Februarys in the 113-year record for the contiguous U.S. Thirty-six states in the eastern two-thirds of the nation were cooler than average, while Texas and the eleven states of the West were near average to warmer-than-average..."

Now on to the NAR report...

"...There was weakness in every part of the country in March. Sales fell by 10.9 percent in the Midwest. They were down 9.1 percent in the West, 8.2 percent in the Northeast and 6.2 percent in the South..."

West was down 9.1%, but had average or warmer then average temperatures...

I don't know what's better, the bs that NAR's spewing, or the fact that people are still beliving it...

People, Wake Up! He basically said "There was trouble seeing at night becasue it was darker then daytime" And the sheeple out there went... "Huh... Guess he's right, it is dark... Lets buy some stocks!"

Actually to me it's like watching Willie Coyote when he would run off a cliff and just keep going for a while... Then when he realizes he just drops...


Anonymous said...

Keith this video is up ur alley.


Mark in Zurich this month said...

BTW - the Financial Times had a small piece yesterday about Spain's housing "implosion" . . .looks like the "Brits Abroad" and the "Easyjet" crowd are getting cold feet in a lot of vacation spots!!!. . .can we say - world housing meltdown - here in the CH (Confederation Helvetica) they never used housing as a Ponzi Scheme - just as a place to live - how quaint!!!

Anonymous said...


When the Office of Thrift Supervision starts saying that fraud is a daily occurance, you know some serious changes are in store for proving income. Probably take them 6-9 months to announce more tightening of standards which will be about the time we start moving from FEAR to DESPARATION!!

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Cheating on mortgage applications is so widespread and so seldom punished that it's fueling an increase in foreclosures that will prolong the housing slump, said Robert W. Russell, counsel to the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans.

Borrowers and brokers commit fraud when they exaggerate the applicant's income, qualifying the borrower for a home he otherwise couldn't afford. Such fraud robbed lenders of an estimated $1 billion last year, according to data collected by the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

``Misstatements about employment and income are being made every day,'' Russell said. ``The brokers are just putting down on paper what the underwriters would require. There are borrowers providing false information as well.''

Anonymous said...

Another juicy tidbit for FB/Homedebtors to chew on!!


Anonymous said...

Since when is a stated income loan necessary for self-employed borrowers. Haven't you heard of schedule C and a quarterly income statement?

Anonymous said...

DOW 13,000 what U talkin' 'bout Willis?

Anonymous said...

Remember Star Trek, how money was not used or needed in the future? With all the money sloshing around, maybe that is where we are eventually headed! Who needs money anyway? Spend more, borrow more, spend more, borrow more, refinance again over and over. Use balance transfer checks to pay off old credit card debts. The wheel goes round and round and never stops.

Anonymous said...

give me abreak, the market aint' falling. the dow is at 13000. a watched pot never boils

Anonymous said...

ha - the dutch dont lik ethe dollar either - buy mo gold!

Take a look at the image below from a CIGA over in Europe. It is an amazing graphic! The picture is a color scan of the cover from the April 14th, 2007 edition of the Dutch magazine FEM Business. "Het Dollartijdperk is voorbij" is Dutch for "The era of the dollar is over".


Anonymous said...

>> Remember Star Trek, how money was not used or needed in the future?

Ah yes, the Starship Enterprise - the perfect little socialist clique. Of COURSE they didn't need money - what the hell was there to buy when everything was provided in exchange for your labor?

Anonymous said...

Still very easy to get a loan with good rates. I have not seen a changed in the ease of a liars loan. The mortagage guy i have used in socal, tx, utah have no problem doing stated income loans. All this talk from KEITH and the rest on this blog about tightening credit and prices dropping i don't see it. Don't read your so call static go out and try to get a loan then back out or make low ball offer on a used house a you will not see people dropping there price. Maybe new home builder have thrown in incentives i'll give you that but a 211,000 median homes price, where? Even in salt lake , austin , nv you cannot find anything worth a damn at that median. If you did not buy already you are priced out for a long time. stop lying to yourself. your priced out. I bought a condo 2 years ago outside of salt lake for 120,000 and rented to a couple who said they would rent for a year or 2 then buy. Those condo are selling for 210 to 230,000 now what will they do?