April 25, 2007

HP favorite Thornberg lecture on the late great housing bubble

Check out all three parts - here's part one...And compare Dr. Thornberg, a real economist, to the laughable Corrupt David Lereah


Hayley said...

I just got back from breakfast, CNBC was on on the widescreen in the Restaurant. 13,000 on the big board and Champagne all around.

The good news:

1. Now you really don't have to feel sorry for these people when the bottom drops out, if they're this gullible they deserve what they get.

2. It guarantees the fed won't ease making a bad situation even worse for housing.

3. It give you more time to get out and get into cash.

4. It gives you time to copy and frame all the bullish commentaries for you "I told you so" wall display.

How much of the earnings rise is from stock buybacks?

How much of the bullish drive is from Europeans taking advantage of the tanking dollar?

How much of the earnings rise is from legal accounting manipulation (i.e., booking negative-am draws as income.)

Oh and the guy was going on and on about all the space google hasn't used yet for ad dollars. Now, I ask you, if keith reduced content on this site to the size of a postcard and used the rest for ad space would you keep reading.

If it wasn't for TIVO I wouldn't be watching TV at all. The number of ads are abusive. Even PBS makes you sit through 4 minutes of "sponsored by."

Pat's Steak said...

What are parts II and III labeled on YouTube?

Can't find it?

Anonymous said...

Real Estate Bubbles and California's Economic Growth, Part 2

Real Estate Bubbles and California's Economic Growth, Part 3

Enjoyable and that was November. Would like to know what he to say now.

Anonymous said...

It is worth checking out his site and recent publication for a nice summary of the mess:


Anonymous said...

Part II

Part III

shtove said...

Here you go

ohmygod said...

Buy your villa in Spain, but wait a day or two!


Ben Franklin said...

Yeah, Thornberg is great. He was head of UCLA's real estate department, and left to run a private consulting firm. He has always been a straight shooter, IMO. BHe offers balanced commentary, showing actual stats to back up his arguments.

Unfortunately, no one listens to anyone who says something they don't want to hear, anyway, regardless of the speakers' credentials. People only hear what they want to hear.... However, they can't say they weren't warned....

Anonymous said...

very good overall. i think an important point he misses is that liquidity will be introduced to push down prices much faster this time as:
1. REIC jobs are lost/Realtors make less money due to fewer sales etc.
2. Investors dump investments that are not performing or that they can't affort the carrying cost on.
3. Builders lower prices so they can keep selling.
4. Forclosures keep rising

Anonymous said...

Part 2:


Part 3:


Anonymous said...

Part 2:

Part 3:

Tom said...

Part 2

Part 3

Doktaire said...

I can't find II or III either, can you post the links please?

Speculative Bubble said...

part 1

part 2

part 3

Anonymous said...

Only problem is that the DOW WOULD HAVE TO BE 28,000 just to break even to the purchase power lost in relation to housing since year 2000, or 38,000 just to break even in purchase power in relation to gold, yet there are still people trying to break even on gold after holding for 30 years, in relation to gold