February 28, 2007

That HP "you only have days to prepare" call on Friday night was insane. But oh, so easy to make.

Remember this HP post on Friday night?







I hope many of you, not because of HP but because of reality, have made the moves in your lives to prepare not just for what's happening, but for what is to come. The Dow could go back up 500 points tomorrow (it won't), but that's not the issue. The issue is that The Great Unwinding is here. No more BS. No more spin. It's here. So get ready and deal with it.

Now I'm going to try to think of tomorrow's winning Lotto numbers. I'll let you know if I come up with anything.


Anonymous said...

Oh man.

Fremont General (FMT), another subprime lender just postponed reporting today.

That's a real bad sign.

The news is full of "mortgages going bad" articles that just came out today.

Anonymous said...

I'm so happy, I'm going to spank the monkey again, for the third time today.
I want to see blood in the streets, people jumping off buldings, marriages dissolve, and realty scum pimping their offspring to toothless Wal-Mart white trash shoppers.

Anonymous said...

This too shall pass.

It has happened before and it will happen again. The reason there is so much evidence of bubbles and manias from history is that the world is not going to end from this event or any before it.

I am not denying the bubble, or the mania or anything about this financial market. I just know, the world will keep spinning, kids will keep playing, life will go on.

This too shall pass.

blogger said...

I bought a May DIA put on Monday feeling the jig was up and it's up 173% today.

Still waiting for Countrywide to FINALLY announce what they all know - that their portfolio is a mess, that their future prospects are destroyed, that thousands will be laid off, and that insider selling was rampant. They have to come clean per Sarbanes Oxley. That put is up 74% but I'm hoping it goes nuts when CFC finally comes clean - I'll hold.

It's scary out there when there seems to be no store of value, no safe haven. Yen? Euro? Bonds? Pounds? Japan? Gold? Silver? Is anything safe? Will anything retain its value in The Great Unwinding? Or is the only way to hold on to your assets is by going short?

Anonymous said...

Can't you socialists go one hour without mentioning walmart? Your obession with a store is really weird and I think unhealthy.

I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account and a 1983 Honda Civic with 290,000 miles, all paid off of course.

Anonymous said...


I am on the road traveling today, but I wanted to say that on Monday, for the first time since early 2000, I went all in on the short side. That is a reflection of how negative I am about this market.
Despite too often sounding like the boy who cried "wolf" in light of the continued market ascent, I have spent the past several weeks outlining my investment rationale and my major concerns: heightened debt loads among consumers, the government and hedge funds; rising mortgage credit losses, which will weigh on a spent-up, not pent-up consumer; nascent inflation, seen in rising raw materials spot prices and crude lately; the ever-present specter of geopolitical tensions; and corporate profit and profit margin vulnerability.

Above all, investors are not being paid for risk -- and excessive valuations are not being recognized. As Robert Marcin pointed out Monday, today's median P/E of 20.5 times trailing earnings of the Value Line composite of 3,000 leading companies compares to 14.5 times at the market's top in the fall of 2000; meanwhile, credit spreads and volatility --expressions of copious complacency -- remain at record low levels.

Here are some reasons we're at such a precarious point.

1. Brokerages and money center banks are rolling over badly and remain a negative short-term market tell.
2. Hedge fund net-long invested levels (61%) are at the highest level and the AAII survey has bears at the lowest level since December 2004.

3. The daytrading in the Chinese market has begun to eerily resemble daytrading in the Nasdaq, which peaked seven years ago. (The more things change, the more they are the same, though the location changes.)

4. Virtually every hedge fund has the yen carry trade on its books, and recent signs in the currency markets indicate that the trade is getting less compelling. (If it does begin to unfold, the young hot money -- especially in the emerging markets like China -- could reverse in a nanosecond).

5. Further signs of speculation are the press mentions (and market reactions) of far-fetched takeovers. A classic example was Monday's item in England's Sunday Express that Dow Chemical (DOW - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) might be acquired by a private-equity group. The shares briefly rose by 8% in response.

Anonymous said...

Check out the web-bot predictive software results. They hit it DEAD ON, predicting the economy would go into meltdown mode beginning FEB. 27, 2007. It only gets worse from here, the bots are predicting lots of bad stuff coming in mid-March...

"Dow Down 415: A Jaw Dropping Web Bot Hit

For a long time I've been warning about the high risk of financial meltdown (spreading to the US Dollar) beginning the period Feb 23-27. This was all based on the amazing work of Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com who developed the proprietary way to "see" the future via subtle linguistic shifts on the public parts of the internet days, months, and even years in advance - depending on the size of event. With Cliff's kind permission, here's an extract from the report sent out to predictive linguistics - web bot - subscribers last weekend, reproduced with exclusive permission here and any linking or reposting much reference both www.urbansurvival.com and the site of www.halfpasthuman.com:

"Markets - Iceberg Rolls Over, Gold Floats on Debt

The [illusion] of (prosperity) that has propped up the Bush administration these last 6/six years is breaking up. Unlike previous market situations, our data suggests that no mere correction is underway, rather what is happening is akin to the [economic] and [financial] iceberg of the USofA rolling over. The vastly disparate ratio of wealth transfer these last few decades, which accelerated to gigantic proportions under the Bush decider-ship, and which has resulted in the top 1/one percentile of the populace controlling 99/ninety-nine percent of the wealth, is about to [flip] or roll over. As with real icebergs, the process is observable only at the point rolling begins, and by then it is way too late to react. As with real icebergs, it is entirely unequal distribution of 'mass' which results in the flip. As with really big icebergs, the actual flipping can take minutes.

The data suggests that the economy of the USofA based markets, and specifically all forms of [usofa dollar] associated debts are rolling over, and the actual visible signs of the roll will be apparent on February 27, 2007. The roll has been initiated, and came 2/two days early for us on February 21, instead of the 23rd as we had supposed. However the 'weekend tension' is still showing as of this point in the processing of the immediacy values, and therefore is still showing as an inflection point in our modelspace. However the actual [visible flip/roll] shows for February 27. The coming period of 8/eight days leading up to the Ides of March release period will also be presenting more [visible] (manifestations) of financial crumbling, but by that time, it is far too late to react to stem the process. In fact, as of this interpretation, ...alea jacta est/the die is cast. Start running now, just guess correctly as to which way the iceberg will roll.

As part of the [economic] degradation, soon to be exacerbated by political degradation, the populace of the USofA is going to have to endure a Spring of [employment] (crashes). The data sets are quite clear about the projection, and it is very dire. The data being interpreted has been showing up for over the last 6/six months and has been posted in previous ALTA report series."

So without giving away the whole outline of what else is to come (you can get longer lead times by subscribing to the current run ($200 for the whole series over the next 5 weeks) , but we'll post the public warning parts here) let's just say that sometime around the middle of the month (our months of Ides of March references will come into focus) a whole new direction of life will start unfolding and my store food/water/ and "investment grade diesel" comments may start to make sense even to remaining skeptics.

Anonymous said...

The implode-o-meter is up to 27.

veritas_faust said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

You think today was amazing? Just wait!

Anonymous said...

Funny how everyone was buying gold up until yesterday yet today everyone is all of a sudden making 173% returns on May DIAs.

Did you all sell your gold last night or something? Well that's OK. On anonymous blogs we can all be genius investors. We all sold our pets.com at $100. We all sold our homes at the peak in 2005. We all bought gold for $400 and sold for $700. We all shorted Countrywide.

Oh and we all make $200K a year and are married to a supermodel. Why not, it's all as likely as everything else.

Anonymous said...

Come on now Kiethodomus, dow down big doesn't signal the end of world. After all, you said the Bears were gonna win the superbowl.
That being said, I predict another bad day tomorrow, some stability by Friday. Look for a dead cat bounce opportunity in two weeks.
I bought a boatload of diq(nasdaq short) last week. The only feeling better than winning the superbowl is making some nice change while while the markets are getting Rogered in the most vile and mid-evil way possible, F%ck yea!...Awesome.

blogger said...

I agree, the Dow melting down after a nice runup is not the end of the world.

The Great Unwinding isn't about the 30 stocks in the Dow.

The Great Unwinding is about the BIG ponzi scheme - the fraud-fueled, flipper-funded housing and debt bubble.

The unwinding of the greatest ponzi scheme in human history is much more than 30 stocks in the Dow.

It's about, ready, here it comes...

It's About Everything.

blogger said...

As to my trading, I've been pretty clear where I'm at - cash, oil, gold and a few puts. Pretty simple portfolio. The puts are just bets - 100% fun money. As you know, you can lose it all with a put and I have. But you can also make a killing very quickly. Just ask Hillary. But don't forget, my conservative portfolio missed out on the gains the past few months. But now it'll miss out on the pain.

My strategy tomorrow is to unwind some more gold, and probably increase euros and yen. I'll let the puts ride. I expect some amazing stuff from Countrywide. To put out no news at all while every other subprime lender came clean, well, either they're still counting the losses, or they truly don't know the extent of the damage.

What interesting times we live in my friends. Everyone ready?

Anonymous said...

"I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account and a 1983 Honda Civic with 290,000 miles, all paid off of course. "

You left out the living in your parents basement line!


Ill be the dirt bag that buys your stucco debt pit for cash, and pennies on the dollar! har har har

Keep talking, and huffing 'cos that's all you got left chump.

Anonymous said...

People should peek again at the ABX indexes..

3 of the 20 are now trading in the 60s ! Truly, the 5 handle is in sight.

It was only, 4 weeks ago that I first saw the 8 handle.. This goes on and on..

Separately, I shorted Fremont - FMT - this morning in advance of their earnings tomorrow - then the bastards postpone the announcement.. Luckily, the market has STILL drawn the same conclusions as me in the after hours and marked it down 2 1/2 bucks


Anonymous said...

I make $300K a year, sold pets.com for $120 and have a supermodel wife and supermodel mistress too.

So there.

Frank R said...

"I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account and a 1983 Honda Civic with 290,000 miles, all paid off of course."

Hey smartmouth, this is me at #8:


Have fun slaving off that mortgage while I enjoy my debt-free life with an ocean view in Newport Beach. The movers arrive on the 12th :-)

Anonymous said...

Nikkei tumbles 700 points in early trading. YEAH BABY!!!

Anonymous said...

You left out the living in your parents basement line!

I left it out because it is implied.

and yet another tell of your lack of education...parents house should be either parent's house (which is most likely as you are the product of a single mother) or parents' house (in the unlikely event that you were brought up in a 2 parent home).

Now go on, you'll be late for your night shift at KFC and those wings won't fry themselves.

Anonymous said...

Asian Stocks Add to Global Rout After China's Slump; BHP Drops

By Stuart Kelly

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell the most in more than seven months, extending a global selloff sparked by the biggest plunge in Chinese shares in a decade. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Posco led declines.

In the U.S, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 546 points, the most since the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Chinese stocks yesterday fell the most in a decade after the government took measures to crack down on excess speculation that had driven shares to records.

``This will reverberate in Asian markets again today,'' said Shane Oliver, who helps manage about $64 billion at AMP Ltd. in Sydney. ``China's market has been poised for a correction for some time, which has made other Asian markets vulnerable too.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index fell 2.1 percent to 145.57 at 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo after rising to a record yesterday. The gauge was set for its biggest drop since July. 14. Trading in China begins at 9:30 a.m. in Shanghai.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped 3.9 percent, set for the biggest drop since June 13. Toyota Motor Co. added to declines after the yen strengthened against the dollar in New York, eroding the value of exporters' sales.

Anonymous said...

I brought up my IRA account this evening and it is reading the same balence as yesterday.

It always shows todays earnings at this time of day.

Should I be concerned?

Anonymous said...

newport beach...sure why not, anything is possible in anonymous blogworld.

As luck would have it, I live Newport Beach too. Maybe we could do lunch some time.

Anonymous said...

It's happening so quickly now!

Anonymous said...

Kieth you might me be right, with credit constricting the writing is pretty much on the wall. However, I don't believe it will result in a depression situation which will require bullion and guns to survive.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Anonymous said...

Australia dropped at the opening, is now up about 1.5% from the bottom. Still down 2.5% from yesterday's close.

blogger said...

There'll be a rush to lock in profits around the world. It's easy to hit the "sell" button on stocks, and you just know that millions - hundreds of millions - wish they could hit the "sell" button and be done with it on houses, condos and land.

Remember Manias, Panics and Crashes advice at this stage of the reversal:

Cash Becomes King.

Anonymous said...

The subprime bond market had too few buyers today. All the CDOs finally left the party.

Margin calls occurred from the warehouse lenders once they realized no one was going to buy the bonds.

Fremont probably has warehouse margin calls.

The really crazy thing is the subprimers still believe just moving the stuff around will make them profitable.

No one is buying the bonds-that is the huge story.

Anonymous said...

A month from now you'll all wish you had bought in tomorrow.

Keith, you pride yourself on being contrarian so why are you following the herd on this one?

Anonymous said...

cash becomes king eh? uhm wait i keep reading how dollars will be worthless any day now

Anonymous said...

what the hell are you doing bloggin on a Friday night? Get a life man.

blogger said...

"cash" does NOT equal dollars. There's plenty other "cash" out there that I'd recommend looking at - euros, pounds, yen for starters.

Gold is also "cash" now and will become even more so. One day you'll be able to buy goods and services via an online fractional gold conversion payment system.

And yes, good old greenbacks are cash. I think they'll hold up OK short term as flight to quality even though it's stupid is dollars. Long term that's not the case.

On the Dow tomorrow I have no idea. Should be a wild ride.

During days like these, it's nice to be on the sidelines.

Anonymous said...

It's cool when the realtors get angry and frustrated and take it out on the bubble-sitters. Daddy likes.

Anonymous said...

Australia up 2.0% from marhet bottom and it's not even 2 hrs into the trading day.

This is almost an exact repeat of what happened in Oct. 97. DOW fell 700 to 7100. End of the world was here so said the Keiths of the day.

Next day first 2 hours DOW is down 200. Then all of a sudden a U turn occurs and ends up 350 for the day and 10,000 was less than a year away.


blogger said...

"what the hell are you doing bloggin on a Friday night? Get a life man"

The post was friday late afternoon, at an internet cafe in barcelona before heading out to an amazing tapas dinner, and had a feeling, a strange, calm, no-question-about-it-feeling, that this week would be insane. There were way to many pressures building, it had to come to a head.

And sure enough, it did.

And where were you on Friday afternoon Desperate Homedebtor? Probably not at the beach in Barcelona I'm guessing. And probably not preparing your portfolio for what's to come.

Here comes the anger HP'ers. People who didn't listen, people who didn't believe, people who didn't understand and people who didn't prepare.

Anonymous said...

And where were you on Friday afternoon Desperate Homedebtor?

Friday afternoon I was on a flight to Dallas for a wedding.

I live in a 1900 sq ft home 1/2 a mile from the beach. I bought it in 1999 and have a mortgage with a balance of $132,000. My payment including everything is $1129 a month.

Desperate home debtor? OK if calling me names make you feel good, go ahead.

Anonymous said...

This is the end...prepare.

Anonymous said...

It's an 84 Honda, numbnuts!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Roccman said...

"($200 for the whole series over the next 5 weeks) , but we'll post the public warning parts here) let's just say that sometime around the middle of the month (our months of Ides of March references will come into focus) a whole new direction of life will start unfolding and my store food/water/ and "investment grade diesel" comments may start to make sense even to remaining skeptics."

$200 for this??!!

I have been posting March/April 07 the begining of the end here for FREE!!!

Damn right...in fact tomorrow will take delivery on another 20 cases of MREs...25 gallons of honey...and 26 superpails (6 gallon each) of legumes and grains...last week picked up yet another bushy (223) and mossberg (12 ga.)...took delivery of another 2000 rounds of 223 1000 round s/w 40s...and 500 round Federal 00 buck 12 ga.

Bunker has been in the ground for a few weeks now (pictures at my blog click oil graph)...1/4 loaded with 3 years supply of food...cots...ammo...grain mill blankets...med supplies...etc.

Those non-believers that the human species HAS STEPPED OFF THE CLIFF...will die first.

Better get food while you can.

Anonymous said...

One day you'll be able to buy goods and services via an online fractional gold conversion payment system.

Sure thing Keith and one day we will all have flying cars too like in Back to the Future II

Roccman said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Im a little confused by Keith. On one hand is is the bleeding heart liberal who cries about people getting hurt by big bad walmart. He champions every socialist cause and embraces the most left wing of politicians like Obama.

Then he turns around and bounces for joy at the news of people losing their homes or like today when millions of people lost billions of dollars in wealth he runs around giving high fives.

I'd swear he is bipolar or something.

Anonymous said...

14 22 19 34 74 12

Anonymous said...

Who is that picture? Is it Keith?

Anonymous said...



Anonymous said...

My prediction:

DOW falls to 11,800 tomorrow noow. Recovers and closes at 12,000.

13,000 by May 1st.

You read it here 1st

Anonymous said...

Shilling and shopping at Wal-Mart is like believing and supporting Bush and Cheney, the butchers of the US military and Baghdad.
It takes the same amount of incredulous moronic stupidity to find any worth in such national catastrophes, but nobody said it would be easy to eradicate W.T.S.(White Trash Syndrome) in Amerika.

Anonymous said...

I love trollfly's affectionate barbs. Hey, trollfly - I'll bet you look like Homer Simpson and eat doughnuts all day long. I love ya, ya big dumb Palooka! Hwhah haw!

If only you knew, man. If only you knew!

Anonymous said...

Didn't one of Casey Serin's houses foreclose today? Synchronicity!

tmaioli said...

Tracking the Perfect Storm

There is a blip on the long-range radar, something out there -- out there at extreme range -- yet now steadily closing the distance. Unable to be seen over the expanse of a long horizon, the object draws relentlessly closer bearing down on our position. As it approaches, we begin to feel the lashing winds and violent seas of a still developing ‘perfect storm.’ In advance of its approach, the palpable change is impossible not to notice with the complexion of a sunny day evaporating into a miasma of increasing winds and darkening skies. Like the approaching storm -- a weather system of immense size and power -- today’s violent decline in global financial markets is the signature of steadily darkening storm clouds and a BEAR MARKET in its early stages. Whoa, to the investor that ignores the message of such an unmistakable and powerful force. Bear markets take no prisoners cutting a path through investor portfolios strewn with wreckage and debris


Anonymous said...

Kieth you were so right!

I predict that by cose on friday The Dow will be down by 1,000.

I also think that China is preparing to take over the USA.

By next week people will be leaping off of tall structures

Anonymous said...

Gold goes down below $400.

Anonymous said...

That's amazing! On Sunday evening, I told the guys at work that I felt really uneasy about the economy and that I expected big things to happen this week. I could have looked like an idiot but ended up marveling. Now I keep asking myself how exactly this will all play out. It could be far worse than anyone expects.

Anonymous said...

"I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account and a 1983 Honda Civic with 290,000 miles, all paid off of course. "

Best get your own house in order. We squirrels are working hard to get ready. I think you were describing yourself...Right?

Anonymous said...

when the credit tightens those toothless target shoppers won't have money to spend except for their welfare checks

Anonymous said...

According to CNN Money, the Bush Plunge Protection Team is meeting tonite. Bernanke, Paulson and the rest of the gang will try to put a stop to this and keep the bubble going a bit longer.

Anonymous said...

I've got puts on most of the sub prime lenders and I'm really anxious on when to pull the trigger to sell them. They're already deep in the money but they could be really, really delicious if a sub prime debacle occurs.

I feel like Robert Wallace in the Braveheart battle scene when the English are charging and he's yelling, "Hold.... Hold..... Hold...."

Anonymous said...

I sold my SLV stock two days ago just because I thought it had topped.

However, I do have several gold mining calls that might end up worthless.

Anonymous said...

Oh, Countrywide knows their own damages. Insiders have been dumping the stock all month, hundreds of thousands of shares.

I'm just amazed how stupid you have to be to buy into it, even today, the lenders bounced a bit. Of course the investor logic was "how much further can they go down?". We'll find out soon enough.

Unknown said...

And the beat goes on and on ...
I learned in Georgia, Vietnam, Ohio,
and from various sources over several decades that American's aren't good
at raising kids. The result is pandemic folly, fraud, and failure.

(When some kid swore, Diogenes
popped his pop.)
Needed: some parenting Marshall Plan.
That, or the beat goes on.

Anonymous said...

Tomorrow is today in Asia, where markets appear to be off 2-3% again.

Anonymous said...

Someone else gave me the idea for this but I had to re-phrase it for maximum effect:

Q. What's the difference between the the housing market and the Titanic?

A: The Titanic eventually found a bottom.

Anonymous said...

Tuesday's fall was a prelude. The ship began to shudder and list. The plasma is venting from the warp core...

Anonymous said...

Another 3 percent loss for US today, even if up at the open, the day will end at a loss.

Anonymous said...

Move over MISH.
te he

Anonymous said...

Hey it's just beginning!

Bill said...

I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account.


Ya your right being Debt free does suck, man am i upset...all this cash and nothing to buy...ya it really sucks to be me...brand new 07 car no loan looser I am.

Anonymous said...

markets up 1%+ and it's only 10:50. I'm so happy I bought right back in mid-day yesterday. So so so very happy.

Oh and how is that gold doing? WHA??
Down $19??? How can that be, Cash is King baby!!! They can't make any more of the stuff you know, value MUST go up.

Bill said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

It's a good thing Wallmart doesn't sell Hondas, the paradox might actually tear space time.

Anonymous said...

Bernanke: Markets are 'working well'
11:15am: Fed chief says that Wednesday's sell-off did not sway central bank's view on the U.S. economic growth.

See all is well!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Anonymous said: "I think it's also really funny how you dimwits are commenting on the market when your net worth consists of $17.98 in your checking account and a 1983 Honda Civic with 290,000 miles, all paid off of course."

HAHA How'd you know??? You're just a bit off but life is better down here below. It's where we don't "own" our home and drive paid off cars, have no credit cards and enjoy making money month to month living within our means. It's so nice not having the pressure.

Really, as one who at 18 years old drove a Porsche and a 12 cylinder Jaguar, flew in our private jet to La Jolla every year to spend a month playing tennis at the La Jolla Beach & Tennis Club, while renting our private beach house, I can speak to your little comment.

Our 160 acre estate with our tennis courts, swimming pool, gym and 15 quarter horses all looked and felt great but the internal emptiness was overwhelming. Acquiring more and more and buying anything we wanted on a whim, nothing was out of reach. Oh, but when it crashed it crashed on us hard. And who could have prepared us for that?

It's so much easier and more enjoyable now to live life and experience just as much fun and enjoyment without the pressure.

So mister big shot, don't think that you can escape with your "wealth". When things crash, they go down hard. And if you have no underpinning faith in a God who loves you and sent His Son to die for you, your life will be just dust.

If I told you my story you'd recognize my family in an instant. But never mind that, just continue to be haughty and smug about your "wealth". It doesn't last sir, and it will never follow you into eternity.

Anonymous said...

Well Said Okie Oiler,
Infidel Woman
aka fmw

Anonymous said...

finally someone here admits that they are dirt poor. They finally admit that despite all the talk about investing in gold and countrywide puts they have nothing, and live paycheck to paycheck.

Good for you you okie on finally coming clean. I wish the rest of HP would be as honest as you and quit this crap about making $150K and living in $3500 a month newport beach homes.