January 23, 2007

Phoenix housing crash chart: Median asking price c/o Housing Watch

A, B, see-you-later... And don't forget, these still-inflated asking prices contain the incentives and cash-backs. Take those out (if we could) and this chart is even uglier.

$500,000 asking price home with $50,000 cash back or $50,000 in incentives is really a $450,000 home (if anyone is stupid enough to buy it)


Anonymous said...

Watch out below!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Isn't 'asking' more like 'desperately praying for' or 'hoping against hope' these days?

Dragasoni said...

Exactly! In my book, the actual numbers are bogus. Incentives are no different than cash back.

These graphs (as ugly as they are now) would be far more nasty if the incentives were factored in.


Anonymous said...

In case, somebody missed it or can't get it through their heads, here it is again:

Phoenix and it surrounding metro area is finding its
own level. Basically, a repository of mediocre poorly
educated bottom-feeders seeking cheap banal living and easy money.This souless mix of carpet-bagging transients, budget seniors,tatooed
misfits, real estate grifters, toothless white trash
tweakers, minimum wage job seekers and pseudo Scottsdale millionaires has created a major population
center that masquarades as a major metropolis but is really one big cow town.
A bleak barren landscape with terrible weather,traffic
congestion, bad air, stuffed with ugly stucco houses
and big box retailers peddling Chinese crap, corporate
food, and a dumbed down semi-literate citizenry,
Phoenix metro epitomizes the lowest commom denominator
of American cities.
If somehow, by either plan or accident, you're living
in metro Phoenix, you rank on the bottom rungs of the
intelligence charts. The only reason to be here
(temporarily), is if you're making a decent income
(absolute min. 250k per yr). Anything less is not
worth it, as your health, mental well being and
personal esteem will deeply suffer by living in this
genetic cesspool of half-breeds.
As someone posted here before,
Metro Phoenix, AZ:
"There is no there, THERE".

Anonymous said...

My math may be wrong but isn't a drop of $50K on a $500K home only 10%?

And after doubling in price in 3-4 years isn't a 10% drop not really the end of the world?

I mean seriously people, get a freaking grip on reality here. A 10% drop in any market, be it housing, stock, gold or whatever is pretty ho hum and not at all extraordinary.

Anonymous said...


Or above actually in SF since prices are up YOY there along with LA and NYC. At what point do you throw in the tower KEIF and admit you are wrong. 5% YOY? 10%?

RISMEDIA, Jan. 24, 2007-
As sales decreased 22% in the fourth quarter across the Bay Area, year-over-year, downward trends were moderating in most counties, according to a report released yesterday by the research division of Prudential California Realty. Price appreciation was stable, rising by one percent across all housing types over the same period last year. Inventory grew (+22%, year-over-year) but gains slowed dramatically over previous quarters.

Anonymous said...

tower = towel

LauraVella said...

Anon said:"My math may be wrong but isn't a drop of $50K on a $500K home only 10%"?

Yes, the sellers greed wont let them reduce more than 10k at a time, so the houses sit and sit without offers until full panic mode sets in.

There will be more than leaves falling from trees in Fall 2007!

Shakster said...

Anonymous above-For housing to stay out of trouble,there must not be any decline in sales,or prices.Housing has become the source of income that alot of people depend on to pay their light bill through equity refinancing,jobs in construction,realtors,brokers,lumber,concrete etc,etc.The economy depends heavily on housing starts,refis,and home equity lines of credit.Ford,GM,and Chrysler are getting hammered ,and sustained 29% losses in sales in Oct05( the very beginning of the downturn).BTW 10% at this point is huge.In 1985 it was business as usual.

stuckinthecity said...

Look, commodities go up AND down.

stuckinthecity said...

Anonymous said...
My math may be wrong but isn't a drop of $50K on a $500K home only 10%?

The most surprising thing is that housing prices are NEVER supposed to go down! Don't you remmeber?

Anonymous said...

Only 10%! Did you say only 10%! A drop of 10% in any market is actually pretty darn huge! Huge! A movement of "only" 10% is enough to make fortunes and ruin lives. Most people put less that 5% as a downpayment. A 10% decrease for a recent home purchase will imply an evaporation of whatever equity the poor shmuck thought he or she had. If the Chinese drop 10% of the U.S. Treasuires they owned our economy would shed about 1 million jobs. God what a Moron. Your grasp of 5th grade math not withstanding. Why not take "only" 10% of what you earn and send it to me. Its only 10%.

Anonymous said...

I love it. 6 months ago you numbnuts were talking about 70% crashes in Phoenix. Now prices have stabilized and once the dust settled a 10% drop after a 100% gain. Hmmm yeah sux to be a home owner today in Phoenix indeed.

Looks like you really will be priced out forever after all and you are getting angrier and angrier and calling people morons. Ehh, it's OK I understand. I'd be upset too if my last hope for home ownership was slowly slipping away from me too. Hope you like your apartment complex, you'll be there for another 20 years.

And can't you people post 1 thing without China into the mix? God, talk about an unhealthy obession. Did you have a bad experience at Panda Express or something? Let it go already.

Anonymous said...

There will be more than leaves falling from trees in Fall 2007!

Yeah. Renters jumping out of the 7th floor 1 bedroom apartments as the great crash fails to materialize for a 3rd straight year.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Spoke to many realtors in PHX, it is true that house prices are going higher in PHX!

Anonymous said...

I taked to my Realtor in Phinix and he said it is a good time to buy since I can get a deal before prices go up 50 percent thsi year. He said renters are to dumb to buy and they are not making more land.

foxwoodlief said...

Just returned from there, nothing like the doomsday people here preach. I am not happy moving back but my wife took a very good position and I was offered a better position than I had when I left but still wonder if we'd be better staying here in Austin and taking jobs making less.

Still, what did I see? Lots of SOLD signs. Fewer For Sale signs. Rents all over the map. Prices still high and in some area higher than 2005! Fringes, prices back to 2004 levels, builders offering incentives (but not lowering the price), 4.9% fixed loans, etc and people are snapping them up reducing inventory on spec homes. Some areas show new prices back in line with production costs (2004 levels) out in places like Buckeye or Maricopa or Queen Creek but prices still high and rising in Central Phoenix.

Looked at a loft to rent and there were five realtors showing clients lofts for resale and people still signing contracts for new construction. Things were all over the map but rents are still higher than 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006. Hard to find places for under $1 a sq ft, one bedrooms (and dumps to me) for $950 a month. 96% occupancy rates on apartments. Condo conversions lanquishing, some landlords offering super prices on rental homes, but still, all over the map and no major crash and the economy is buzzing and people still moving there.

Still waiting for the crash.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix is in rough shape, but so is the nation as a whole. To the poster who summed up Phoenix with intense sarcasm: I live here and I laughed my a** off when I read that! WOW! Sounds like me.

In Phoenix: SUBURBS - You're screwed. It will take 3-5 YEARS from now until you see a penny of appreciation from a "REALISTIC" appraisal done TODAY. CENTRAL PHX - Much better shape but still SLOW. Good houses will still sell when they're priced within reason (many still learning this).

I for one have been here 8 years and have had quite the lucritive career in this desert. However, I've always thought it's NOT a long term place for me, so I can't wait to bail out of here! Luckily I live in Arcadia and my house will be sold within a month or two max.

Best of luck to the PHX crowd trying to get thru this. Unless you are an over-zealous living beyond your means wannabe, you'll be fine. Conservative realistic people always end up on their feet. Meanwhile we have to wait it out while the idiots get cleansed from homeownership.