January 23, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


HP Easy Quiz:

"I just bought a house in Phoenix for 30% below asking price!!!"

A) Smart
B) Stupid
C) Really fricking stupid

39 comments:

Admin said...

uh, b or c? how much time to i have to answer this question? b is what it's worth today, c is what its worth tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

D) Insane, probably advised by Greg Swann

Anonymous said...

C.
To upgrade to B make it 75%.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

GrandInquisitor said...

I don't know about Phoenix but nationally it looks like housing has bottomed. Good luck Hper's. After 5 years of waiting to buy a home I think it's a great time to get in. I'm beginning my search this weekend. Prices are back to 2005 levels. We've had the anticipated correction and I'm tired of renting. As a proxy of the homebuilder market TOL is up 6% today alone, and has been steadily rising since last July. Equities being the best leading indicator, spring is looking fantastic for homebuilders. I'm also hearing from realtor acquaintances, and friends who work for local builders, that the market is picking up and spring looks pretty good. There is no panic Keith. I held out for years and years. Even if prices fall 20% over the next decade, so what!. A panic means a liquidity crisis. I means a massive adjustment in valuation. Yet consumer confidence and retail sales continue to rise in defiance of the slowdown. I was dead wrong, and so are you. Our bet was a bet against fiat currency. Some day you'll be right, until then you and Fleck can say the same sh*t, every day, for the rest of your lives. It won't make a difference. I've got respect for what you are trying to do, but you may be a little ahead of your time.

Anonymous said...

I would say you overpaid by 15%

Anonymous said...

If I just sold a home in let's say, Southern California, that I purchased pre-bubble, sold to a sucker at the peak, I just dropped 50% as a DP on the new pad, bought all new furniture and cars and still have over 100k in my hot pocket..who gives a sheeat. Oh did I mention I am succesful IT Exec? Mortgage payment under 1500, all new toys paid for and a 100+ salary...miss renting..NOT.

Anonymous said...

REALLY REALLY FRICKING STUPID

skianddive said...

Hey Grand Inquisitor Fool,
Your assertion that housing is bottoming is an outright lie. You must be a scum realtor. You might want to read the comments from DR Horton (the largest homebuilder in the US) CEO today. And I quote;

"“‘We’re in the very early stages’ of the current housing slowdown,’ CEO Donald Tomnitz said. ‘Most of these downturns are longer and deeper, and right now we don’t see anything on the horizon that would change that opinion,’ the CEO said.'"

Please deal with reality. You'll feel better in the end.

Anonymous said...

"30%?"

now...all you have to do is wiat for another 15-20% drop and you will be in at a fair market price.

this is not to say yoy wont see another 10% of downside.

remember, all these pos houses went up 200%. You think they cant come down 50%?

Anonymous said...

GRANDINQUISOTOR!!!!

Are you holding any open houses this weekend?

Or, how many "flips" are you facing forclosure on?

Or, are you just plain stuid?

The hb stocks rose today on a "upgrade from GS--"from SELL to HOLD.....a real vote of confidence.

Anonymous said...

Hey grandinquisitor,
Housing may have bottomed, but here on the East Coast I can still rent for 1/3 to 1/2 the cost of a mortgage payment. A six bed 3.5 bath house in the best neighborhood in the county, no less.
I'll invest that money outside the real estate market until the real days of the hyenas and buzzards come.
The fact that homebuilder stocks are anything but the stinkiest dogs of stocks shows you how unbelievably overvalued equity markets are in general now. No profits? No problem. Guidances on future earnings? No problem. Massive land write-downs? No problem.
Remind you of anything? Like the tech stock bubble of 2000? There's a reason the Pets.com puppet is Keith's mascot.

Anonymous said...

-30% sounds like such a good deal...But sounding like a good deal is not the same as being a good deal. RE prices appreciated so much in the past couple of years (especially in areas such as Phoenix) that -30% is still overpriced. So I say it's B or C. Probably the latter. I bet prices will depreciate a lot more in the next 2 years.

--SSH Anon.

Dragasoni said...

C. Really freaking stupid!

I can just hear them now:

"But Suzanne researched it! And Greg Swann said I'd be priced out forever if I didn't buy today!!"

-Dragasoni-

Anonymous said...

Housing stocks could conceivably go up as they go from 4 P/E to 8 P/E even as earnings plummet.

Housing fundamentals are still down, and of course homebuilders can nearly always underbid existing homedebtors.

Anonymous said...

my parents' house is forsale. they are sort of in panic mode. they are in partial denial, because otherwise they'd be in full panic mode.

most sellers in the country are in panic mode or almost there. ones who are not are braindead.

it only takes a % to drive it down.

like the stock market... just because AAPL trades up $5 to 90/shr on 10mill volume, does not mean you could get out of 500mil shares. just not liquid.

houses are least liquid thing on earth.

all avalanches start as a small crack in the snow. Then it rips down the mountain destroy all in its path.

kilobar said...

Speaking of the tech bubble, I wonder what the homebuilder's "burn ratios" are.

Alpha_Bear said...

grandinquisitor = realtor troll

"Even if prices fall 20% over the next decade, so what!"

What if prices fall by 50% over the next few years? Good luck finding any "greater fools" to purchase your "flip", once you realise the mistake that you've made.

Alpha_Bear said...

"If I just sold a home in let's say, Southern California, that I purchased pre-bubble, sold to a sucker at the peak, I just dropped 50% as a DP on the new pad, bought all new furniture and cars and still have over 100k in my hot pocket..who gives a sheeat. Oh did I mention I am succesful IT Exec? Mortgage payment under 1500, all new toys paid for and a 100+ salary...miss renting..NOT."

Don't gloat. You just made the seller of your new pad very happy. In today's falling market, they were probably worried that your place would be hard to sell, and were glad to find a "sucker" like you. How does it feel to be the "greater fool"?

What's the commute like from Bengaluru?

Anonymous said...

My parents' house is for sale. They are sort of in panic mode. They are in partial denial because otherwise they'd be in full panic mode. Most sellers in the country are in panic mode or almost there, ones who are not are braindead.
+++++++++++
Hmm....Perhaps this explains why my sister, who is selling her condo, told my mother to tell me to stop mentioning the "bursting of the housing bubble."

Anonymous said...

House builder stocks behave different way than housing prices.
Builder on the begining invest money in land and projects does not sell much,later lays-off all illegal contractors and sells houses for pure proffit!
It's the timing stupid !

When prices go down to 2003 level than is bottom.

Anonymous said...

Greg Swann is a schmuck, and will probably file for bankruptcy SOON.

GrandInquisitor said...

Wow, that struck a nerve. I've been renting for the past 5 years and I'm not a realtor. Prices have fallen substantially and for the first time in a long time one can negotiate the purchase price. I'm not looking to flip a house. I'm not looking for a McMansion. I'm looking for a home to live in. One I do not plan on selling until I retire. I'm not going to wait 10 years so that I can save 20%. I was hoping for a crash as much as any of you. It just didn't happen like that, in nominal terms. You are all hoping for a 1 in a million shot. There is so much liquidity sloshing around. Do you have any idea how many people along the east cost are making 300-400K per year? How many people are in line for large inheritances? All of your bitterness and anger won't make it come true. I've tried that approach, and it doesn't work. Life is f*cked up, and so is America. If you live in Arizona or Florida or any one of the major bubble areas then maybe you should let the dust settle. If you live outside of Albany and can get a beautiful home on property for 350K, and you make 150K per year, I say go for it.

Anonymous said...

GrandInquisitor said...
Wow, that struck a nerve. I've been renting for the past 5 years and I'm not a realtor. Prices have fallen substantially and for the first time in a long time one can negotiate the purchase price. I'm not looking to flip a house. I'm not looking for a McMansion. I'm looking for a home to live in. One I do not plan on selling until I retire. I'm not going to wait 10 years so that I can save 20%. I was hoping for a crash as much as any of you. It just didn't happen like that, in nominal terms. You are all hoping for a 1 in a million shot. There is so much liquidity sloshing around. Do you have any idea how many people along the east cost are making 300-400K per year? How many people are in line for large inheritances? All of your bitterness and anger won't make it come true. I've tried that approach, and it doesn't work. Life is f*cked up, and so is America. If you live in Arizona or Florida or any one of the major bubble areas then maybe you should let the dust settle. If you live outside of Albany and can get a beautiful home on property for 350K, and you make 150K per year, I say go for it.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007 11:08:14 PM


Yea, that would be the top 1% of wage earners in america or ~3,000,000 people. I seriously doubt they are the ones buying up all the McMansions. Oh, and just as a side, liquidity in the market is BAD!!!! Here read this:

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1167675131.php

LauraVella said...

D) 30% off today turns into another 30% by end of 2007.

Today's bargains are tomorrows nightmares...

LauraVella said...

"When prices go down to 2003 level than is bottom".


With all our manufacturing jobs going overseas, 1996 levels sound good to me.

Anonymous said...

Anon sez: all avalanches start as a small crack in the snow. Then it rips down the mountain destroy all in its path.


That's true... and furthermore, no individual snow flake feels or accepts any responsibility for the avalanche!

Just like no individual member of the REIC is "to blame" for the probable billions in homeowner equity losses forthcoming.

(Unless you're the grandiquisitor, of course :-)

Paul E. Math said...

I hear ya, grandinquisitor. But I've waited just as long and I can wait a little longer to see how this all plays out.

Noone really knows for certain what will happen with housing. I feel pretty certain that there is a bubble but I feel less certain that this bubble will burst. I wouldn't have thought the Fed would be able to flood the market with money for 5 years without runaway inflation so, who knows, maybe they can do it for 5 more.

Still, I go back to the fundamentals of average prices v. average rents and average incomes and I say these prices are unsustainable.

Like I said, I've waited this long and I can wait a little longer. I think you should too. Have a little faith. At the very least, negotiate like crazy.

Original asking price means nothing. Look at comps, not the asking price and then chop 30 or 40% off that to start your negotiations. Unless you're in bubble central like Phoenix, Florida, Vegas, etc - if you buy there now you're really frickin' stupid.

Shakster said...

C. The houses were built with labor that lacked experience due to the shortage of experienced help.The inspections didn't happen,and the list goes on.A women at work complained today that her cupboards fell from the ceiling,another says the garage door sags so bad it has to be replaced under warranty.A contactor who we used to hire regularly has not been called to work by anyone in over a month,and thats after 6 months of slow construction.Another says her brother was living on home equity,bought a zillion toys,and has to bumb gas money from her.This is just starting,but all of them repeat the same ol line,"we've hit bottom".Sorry dudes,and dudettes,the bottom will have even HPers in awe,as in "awe phuk"this sucks.The devaluation of the dollar is their only hope of prices staying high.Even if that comes to be, the sales numbers will plummett harder cuz the smart money will have no incentive to jump in,and joe sixpack is tapped out.My brothers house is coming up on 300 days on the market,some minor reduction in asking price,and nobody to buy it.The smartest money will avoid housing for quite a while.Ongoing is the denial,and ingnorant stage of developers,and builders.I meet many,and they all have this notion that this is just a bump in the road,continue to build,and continue to dream on.Their inventory is rising along with the cost of carrying these properties.The defiant ones are amuzing in attidude.An older gent comes into our office,and proclaims it will end soon so "let em sit".SITTING is the term for "it ain't sold yet".He obviously doesn't research housing,past, present, or future.He goes on to ask,"how's the market up here?The room pauses,we look at each other,and I think to myself,if your so confident why the hell are you looking for a better market to build in?Uncertainty is just making it's presence.In a while,all these small time flipper/builders will be scrambling for funds to carry their homes,and to do that most will seek financing to build even more.The pressure on the downside is already great,yet they will add more to it,and when panic sets in( because Barnanke will allow it),all the new homebuyers better pray for a 20 pt crash in the dollar,and for rates to go down.Either way,you better love your home,cuz you will be living there for a very very long time.

Anonymous said...

C. Really Frickin' Stupid.

Unless he can afford to lose another 30% after his great 30% off deal.

Anonymous said...

To the Anon who bought pre- bubble and is happy.

Congrats! that's what we all want! A reasonably priced home! that's why we'll be buying post- bubble.

Anonymous said...

Aiya, grand Inquisitor, I see your argument about finding a beautiful 350K home outside of Albany on a 100K salary.

But first, I'd check to see what that same house sold for a few years back. Because it may really be a 200K home masquarading as a 350K home.

Check historical local RE values before buying in a new area. What you find may shock you.

Unless you've got nothing better to do with that 150K you might be losing. In that case, have at it! Make that Albany seller's day! Support the Albany bubble!

Anonymous said...

(A) if he's going to be there for a while and is secure.

Anonymous said...

The hb stocks rose today on a "upgrade from GS--"from SELL to HOLD.....a real vote of confidence.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007 8:08:14 PM
------------

I worked for a stock brokerage firm during the tech bubble. Got out to a cumfy city job.

From person experience:

SELL = Get the hell out, don't look back.

HOLD = Get the hell out.

Anonymous said...

Hmm....Perhaps this explains why my sister, who is selling her condo, told my mother to tell me to stop mentioning the "bursting of the housing bubble."

Tuesday, January 23, 2007 10:49:36 PM
-----------------

So, instead of facing the truth, she's rather not talk about it?

FUNNOMINAL said...

GRANDINQUISITOR...you can begin whatever search you want...2005 was still 75% above where it's going to be...
Catching a falling knife has never proven to be a prudent tactic.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

2005 was still 75% above where it's going to be...
*************
I do not believe it.
iw

GrandInquisitor said...

paul e. math...I hear you but it's getting harder to wait. Money I can earn back, time I cannot. However, I am just beginning my search. I'm going to piss a lot of people off when I offer 300 for a home listed at 400. I also look forward to making negative comments about people's homes while I'm in them. There is a web site in my state that lists all of the houses and the prices paid for them. Armed with that knowledge I should be able to negotiate well.

Anonymous said...

"How does it feel to be the "greater fool"?"

Sorry bud, I am in an extremely enviable position and you know it. Yes, I bought in a falling market, I dont care. 1/2 the house is paid for and my payment is like I said, 1400. Not too shabby for a 'McMansion' 15 MINUTES FROM MY OFFICE. HAHAHAHAHAA.
Oh and yes I am gloating. Just like you idiots who gloat how renters are smarter for not buying in a down market. How does the shoe fit on the other foot?

Alpha_Bear said...

anonymous said:

"... I am in an extremely enviable position and you know it. Yes, I bought in a falling market, I dont care. 1/2 the house is paid for and my payment is like I said, 1400. Not too shabby for a 'McMansion' 15 MINUTES FROM MY OFFICE. HAHAHAHAHAA.
Oh and yes I am gloating. Just like you idiots who gloat how renters are smarter for not buying in a down market. How does the shoe fit on the other foot?"


Hi Anonymous. How about printing out what you just posted, and hanging it above your computer monitor (or better yet, make it your desktop). Then you'll be able to look at your words every day, and consider the wisdom of them.

I'm actually happy for you. You've found a place you like at a cost that you can currently afford. Most of us are hoping for the same thing.

Are you at all worried about the rising costs associated with heating and/or cooling your McMansion? Your taxes are probably fairly steep, too. With the uncertainty in today's job market, I sure hope that you didn't go for one of those 40-year mortgages. I'd be paying it off as soon as possible if I were in your shoes.

In my case, I expect to buy back into the market in a few years, and have no mortgage at all. In the meantime, my investments are doing very well (they gained almost 15% over the past 4 months), I'm happily renting a house on 10 acres with a monthly payment of about 1/800th the value of the property, and it's between 6 and 8 minutes from work, depending on the traffic. I don't have to worry or budget for property taxes, repairs, or maintenance, either. OK, so now I'm gloating.

I strongly believe that now is not a good time to buy real estate. Let's see who is in better shape financially a few years from now. I suspect that you might be wishing that you'd waited a few years longer before buying your McMansion.