HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK

August 03, 2006

BUBBLETALK - archived thread

Post articles, rant away, keep it clean

231 comments:

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Smart Grid blogger said...: I love the pics and cartoons featured in your blog... but the most important of all is the REALITY OF REAL ESTATE MARKET trends featured here !!!!!; July 21, 2006 8:42 AM
Anonymous said...: Just spent a evening in a cell phone store buying some new phones. I was a great study of US money matters. Lots of people in there NOT buying phones, but trying to get their phones turned back on or finding out that their bill is way, way over their fixed bill should be. I walked around listening to everyone story. I think that money is tighter out there than I thought. Because you all know its hard to drive today in traffic without talking into your cell phone wandering between lanes and varying your speed. Keep those phone on!; July 21, 2006 12:24 PM
Anonymous said...: panicearly said.......
we can do with out, little luxuries that we can skip on?

We can skip the damn starbucks in the a.m. Our secretary stops faithfully every morning for her $4.50 cafe latte whatever.
Raves about it. Offers to bring me one. I repeatedly decline. I mentioned it to the wife. The wife tells me "Oh, it's good, you should try it". My response "When the hell have you been going to starbucks?"
Somebody shoot me!; July 21, 2006 1:46 PM
Anonymous said...: >>> interesting post at Mish`s blog.
it seems that the gov is about to make
a useful commodity taders report disappear.
first the m3, now this...

Can't this information be put together by the exchanges? M3 would be harder since its a government measure, but commodity trading has trade data in the computers of the exchanges.; July 21, 2006 3:21 PM
Anonymous said...: >>> Wife and $4.50 latte

I gave up trying to micromanage my wifes spending. It's better to sit down and agree on a montly budget between the two (common expenses, her discretionary, his descretionary, etc.)

Keep drinking the Starbucks, I am a stock holder ;-); July 21, 2006 3:27 PM
Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
>>> Wife and $4.50 latte

I gave up trying to micromanage my wife’s spending. It's better to sit down and agree on a monthly budget between the two (common expenses, her discretionary, his discretionary, etc.)

Keep drinking the Starbucks, I am a stock holder ;-)"

Hats off to you. I wouldn't even attempt to manage my wife’s spending. She has absolutely no concept of finance's. Fortunately we don't spend much, and don't need much. Key word I stress is 'NEED', not 'WANT', or 'GOTTA HAVE’, when it comes to money. It keeps most things limited to 'window shopping' when we go out, which is rare anymore.
I DO know that restaurants are taking a hit as far as business goes, an in-law is in the business, and tells me that some major chains are reporting serious losses. He didn't elaborate. Anon, how's starbucks doing?; July 21, 2006 3:45 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm not getting married, I'm sticking with one night stands.; July 21, 2006 5:44 PM
Anonymous said...: The fasteset way that a successful man can meet financial ruin is to get married.

I should say get married without a prenup.

Then yours becomes "ours" what I really mean is hers.

Then when she gets tired of you she'll file a no fault divorce and take half your stuff.

Sounds like an awesome deal where do I sign?; July 21, 2006 6:01 PM
Anonymous said...: "I should say get married without a prenup."

Dude, like that's going to happen.

Women are smart nowadays and know how to avoid the 'non-exposed' types. If you're a successful fellow, the best thing to do is to either have a gf or one night stands or a corporate account with a brothel in Amsterdam (or Nevada if you don't like travel).; July 21, 2006 6:11 PM
Anonymous said...: If she doesn't want to sign a pre-nup that's fine. There just won't be a wedding. Peroid.

Single4LIFE; July 21, 2006 6:15 PM
Anonymous said...: "If she doesn't want to sign a pre-nup that's fine"

What I'm trying to say is that most (80%+) won't sign it and that's why men cave in and become pussywhipped.

Remember, us 'single4life' types are a despised minority among ball 'n chain men and their control freak wives.; July 21, 2006 6:28 PM
Anonymous said...: "control freak wives.: AKA... C.U.N.extT.uesdays. You are correct. 80% of my friends are married to those types. I called one the other day and I heard his wife yelling "Who the F is that calling you now!". Boys need to get theirs balls off the mantel and screw them back on. It doesnt hurt to be an a-hole once in a while either. It keeps them in check. Its the old 'treat them like an asshole and they love you more". I am not saying to beat them, but dont be too nice of a Mr. nice guy. If you are, then you are destined to end up with a wife-zilla.; July 21, 2006 6:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "Boys need to get theirs balls off the mantel"

Dude, when the average married fellow is carrying a ball 'n chain, what would you expect?

That's where the phrase, "Does begging count as foreplay?" had originated from.; July 21, 2006 7:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Better to beg for foregiveness thatn ask for permission.

At least that's what i've been told; July 21, 2006 7:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Screw it! This middle class conformist mentality is for the birds!

Here's where successful guys need to hang out:

http://www.cat69.com/brochure/index.html

http://yabyum.com/html/eng/about.html

http://www.bunnyranch.com/main.php

Any questions?; July 21, 2006 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: They are still smoking cigs and talking away on the cell phones.

I have lots of cash and a good job and am debt free and I still dumped internet, home landline phone, sat radio, cable TV.

Not only is gas getting high but the hot weather has the electricity running at full speed and the water on the yard is flowing. hey - what about HOAs forclosing on FBs who cannot afford to keep the yard as green as it is supposed to be? I have heard about HOAs actually forcloseing. How is that possible and what fool would buy a home in a subdivision where you had to pay a tax to the neighborhood? Foolish foolish FBs.; July 21, 2006 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Bachelors like me are hated by wifes. All that drinking, carousing, and a free and easy life. Nope, they want "their" man under the thumb.

Poor guys.

I wonder how many loose women will be available after all the divirces from going broke.; July 21, 2006 9:14 PM
Anonymous said...: "I wonder how many loose women will be available after all the divirces from going broke."

Nah, they'll be acting like Alanis Morrissette as if their former hubbies let them down on their housing dreams and will subsequently be looking to take it out on the next man on the road.; July 21, 2006 9:23 PM
Anonymous said...: "I'm a bitch, I'm a lover
I'm a child, I'm a mother
I'm a sinner, I'm a saint
I do not feel ashamed
I'm your hell, I'm your dream
I'm nothing in between
You know you wouldn't want it any other way

So take me as I am
This may mean you'll have to be a stronger man
Rest assured that when I start to make you nervous
and I'm going to extremes
tomorrow I will change
and today won't mean a thing"

Rest assured, over 70% of married men are going through something as described above by Ms Morissette, herself.; July 21, 2006 9:54 PM
Anonymous said...: You guys don't get it. Women have ALL the power now.

All she has to do is say you raped her or bang her head against something and say you hit her, and you're in jail just like that.

Get used to it, boys. You're done for. LMAO; July 21, 2006 10:04 PM
Anonymous said...: "Get used to it, boys. You're done for."

Ergo, see below for a solution...

http://www.cat69.com/brochure/index.html

http://yabyum.com/html/eng/about.html

http://www.bunnyranch.com/main.php; July 21, 2006 10:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Or if you fellows want to go downunder for a vacation:

http://www.stiletto.net.au/category.asp?category_id=1

http://www.dailyplanet.com.au/content2/index.html

http://www.bonton.co.nz/html/location_premises.htm; July 21, 2006 10:17 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm waiting for this bubble to collapse, but it's just not happening.

Median prices are down by what? At most 5% in Florida or something?

Keep dreaming about your bubble popping.; July 21, 2006 10:21 PM
Anonymous said...: :Whores are gross.

I'd take a top escort over an Alanis Morissette GF any day of the year.

And Daily Planet in Oz has never had an STD passed, in all of its years of operation.; July 21, 2006 10:28 PM
Anonymous said...: OK THAT WAS FUN AND ALL BUT SERIOUSLY GUYS LETS GET BACK TO HOUSING AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Women, gotta love 'em; July 21, 2006 10:36 PM
Anonymous said...: yeah how about getting back on topic.

BTW, my wife is hot and we get it on like we were still 19 yrs old. Yeah, it's not "the strange" but at least she's not looking at her watch, with four more Johns coming in later.

The single guy life seems superficially enticing but I think those guys end up spending a lot of time at home on the couch, watching TV and wishing they had someone special in their life.; July 21, 2006 11:57 PM
Anonymous said...: "at least she's not looking at her watch, with four more Johns coming in later."

Perhaps you guys need to travel out of the country to know what I'm talking about. The best intl courtesans know how to please and do it better than many American GFs w/o clockwatching.

"wishing they had someone special in their life."

I've done the someone *special* bit. I can't believe folks still talk like that after their mid 30s, esp after seeing divorce/settlement from half (now almost 60%) of their peers. Many women are not special. Heck, even my sister's husband is now thinking of getting a divorce after talking that "someone special" talk for the past twenty years. Truth be told, Alanis Morissette is the modern American woman (despite her Canadian upbringing). And all her lyrics are in the public domain.
The other resource is the movie, "American Beauty", another eye opener for our modern consumerist society.; July 22, 2006 12:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Whatever. Who gives a damn about women. You only care if you're suffering through being a slave (married) to one.

Can we please get back to why the housing market is not crashing so I can get more angry responses from you to the contrary.; July 22, 2006 12:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "You only care if you're suffering through being a slave (married) to one."

Well... three to four of my good friends have upgraded their homes, during the prior year's run up, due to their incessant wives' rantings about the need for more space for the babies. Now, they just hope that the equity from their prior home sales will give 'em enough to get through the tough times. I think at least two of them rarely even have sex anymore and one of them, tries to go out with me and others continually, just to forget about his life at home. And that's a part of the whole housing mania, a lot of level headed fellows don't want to upgrade but are coerced into it from their spouses. So if incomes hold up then perhaps housing will get through the higher interest rate times ahead but I doubt it because higher rates usually leads to falling prices.; July 22, 2006 1:06 AM
Anonymous said...: My wife is a sweetheart, is more thrifty than I am and can't stand idiotic US consumerism.

what's the difference?

She didn't grow up in the USA, but in South America.

find your buddies who have foreign born wives or girlfriends---it is critical that they had their teenage years in another country---and compare to USians or Canadians.; July 22, 2006 1:20 AM
Anonymous said...: "a lot of level headed fellows don't want to upgrade but are coerced into it from their spouses."
With current prices, even with using old equity to trade up, you are almost always looking at a higher payment than your old one, anyway you slice it. I am talking about people that bought 2-4 years ago and now want a bigger home.; July 22, 2006 1:39 AM
Anonymous said...: I'll second the foreign wife recommendation. In my travels overseas the saying I heard the most was "American men make the best husbands, American women make the worst wives." My wife is great - she's thrifty, honest, kind and smart as a whip. Being a wild man is fun for awhile, but when you're old and sitting on your couch drinking beer alone and their is no one in the world who gives a shit whether you're dead or alive, maybe you'll understand that it wasn't that great a choice. The old rabidly single guys, so afraid of western women stealing what they have are the unhappy counterparts of the modern single career women. Both are signs of how fucked up this society really is.; July 22, 2006 2:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Men need to stand up and support their families (financially and emotionally), and quit bitching about it. The next generation needs men who think of someone other than themselves.; July 22, 2006 3:07 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm waiting for this bubble to collapse, but it's just not happening.

Median prices are down by what? At most 5% in Florida or something?

Keep dreaming about your bubble popping.

Unfortunately you didn't get to see my reply to you before Keith erased all of the posts and started over, so I'll be brief.

You were talking about Phoenix the other day, and how everything is just tits-up in Phoenix when it comes to housing. Preforeclosures are down, you said, although I think you were referring to the whole country.

You may want to check some more data every once in a while, and also from time to time, think a little harder about cause-and-effect relationships when it comes to housing. Just for one example, you may want to consider how getting only one offer per house every 2-3 months is going to affect the price of houses. Or how a reduction in housing sales will correlate to the loss of construction and other jobs related to real estate. This is already happening on a massive scale --- construction and retail jobs are way down for the second quarter when compared to the first quarter.

So go ahead and buy a house in Phoenix at the listing price. Yes, I insist, you first.; July 22, 2006 3:20 AM
Anonymous said...: emotion vs. market fundamentals. lets see who wins.

if you expect the bubble to burst and have people running out into the streets overnight its not going to happen.

Houses are illiquid assets and it WILL take a while.

Things are starting to happen now. Just wait until next year when the first major set (2 trillion) in ARMs's readjust...; July 22, 2006 4:17 AM
blogger said...: if you want the prior BUBBLETALK it's always just a few threads down - never erased; July 22, 2006 8:57 AM
Bots said...: Sorry if this is a duplicate post, but I just wrapped up my new version Of Lereah's book...
Enjoy, my friends, and have a great weekend!
http://www.putfile.com/damonbots
It's the one on the left.; July 22, 2006 11:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Hi there Blogger, a real useful blog.Keep with the good work.
If you have a moment, please visit my stock market charts site.
I send you warm regards and wishes of continued success.; July 22, 2006 1:19 PM
Anonymous said...: GEEEEZ, Why always me?; July 22, 2006 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey, is this in the ethics handbook for Realtors? From Washington Post Real Estate Live:

Kensington, Md.: "I submitted an offer on a house I wanted in Kensington yesterday. The listing agent told my agent about an hour before she was to talk to the seller about the offers what it would take to get to the top of the other two offers -- full listing price and the seller would contribute closing costs. I told my agent to go ahead with that offer. After that, we heard nothing for three hours. It turns out that another offer MIRACULOUSLY showed up a few minutes before her (the listing agent's) talk with the seller, complete with escalator clause to assure the other buyer the house! My suspicion and that of my agent is that the listing agent simply used our offer to call the other buyer and see if they'd up their offer. I was told this is illegal and unethical. Of course I can't prove this but do I have any rights? Is it wrong for an agent to talk about other offers to the potential buyers? Do I have a case for a lawsuit? As a first time homebuyer, I thought I could stay in that house for 20 years and now I feel like I'll never see another house like that again.

Maryann Haggerty: It may feel unethical, but it's not illegal, as far as I know.

But calm down. Why even think about bothering with the hassle and expense of a lawsuit? Keep looking; there are plenty of other houses out there. Really, there are."; July 22, 2006 4:15 PM
Anonymous said...: stuck in south PA Said = My monkey has a cute purple head that likes to b touched and played with. Would you like to play with my monkey? OHHHHH Man you so smart no wonder you are stuck in South PA have a small studder problem - they have primary education that cures that - you should look into it. but to protect calif please stay in PA. a kind note from the authorities always protecting you from lower classes...; July 22, 2006 5:36 PM
Anonymous said...: "but when you're old and sitting on your couch drinking beer alone and their is no one in the world who gives a shit whether you're dead or alive, maybe you'll understand that it wasn't that great a choice."

I don't mean to burst your bubble here but I already know old guys in this predicament who're either Vietnam vets a/o had their ex-wives ruin their lives for them, both emotionally and financially. I believe it's actually better to be alone, learn some meditation or spiritual practices, than to have one's life ruined by a third party. Yes, if a fellow finds a good int'l wife and it works out, great, however, do realize that there are cultural differences and there are also numerous cases of those US/Intl married for only a few years until the PR status is solidified.

All and all, what I don't agree with is that one is required to find "the one" between the ages of 27 and 48 as the playbook of being a successful adult says. Find what works and if nothing works, well then so be it.; July 23, 2006 12:45 AM
Anonymous said...: So Be It.

I am a Beautiful (I am told) Single (by choice) Female Boomer (look 35). I will never get married. Which I guess is a good thing, as I was raised in the USA. LOL
Anyway, I will have a lot of fun and maybe a boyfriend.
You guys are right, yet again.....
Geniuses all of u.; July 23, 2006 1:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Austingal, you don't get it. Men don't like bitchy females demanding things all the time ...

Take me. Am I getting married? Hell no!!! 75% of the marriages in my family failed just because the wife got 'bored' of the husband and decided she was better off with the kids, the house, and a bunch of money ...

My grandmother divorced my grandfather and spent the rest of her life watching T.V. Just because he wasn't like romance novels.

So will I ever get married? No. Because it's just too risky and not worth it. Prenups aren't worth the paper they're written on. The laws of the land come in to play before prenuptual agreements.

So if you want to withold sex before marriage, go right ahead because honestly you primadonnas are terrible lays anyway.

Okay, now that's out of the way, I'm still not buying the whole crash thing. Because once this inventory is gone, which will happen relatively quickly once the builders start slowing down, house prices will start going up again.; July 23, 2006 1:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Oh, and why do women always say they look like age X. Because who the heck cares? Besides, they do not look like 10-20 years younger. They look old, just in their dreams they look younger. They are in serious denial.

Anyways, this female topic is boring. If you have angst go buy a dildo or hire a hooker.

So here's my prediction. Housing prices in the major runup markets (Phoenix, parts of Florida, San Diego, Las Vegas), start to drop now ... medians down by 10-20% during the next recession, and then start rising again, because of all the hispanic babies popping out.

It's not going to crash like Japan because they had basically no population growth. The U.S. isn't like that because all the immigrants are popping out babies like crazy.; July 23, 2006 2:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Don't you boys ever watch the Suze Orman show? She gets endless emails and phone calls from women asking for her financial advice after MEN have ripped them off on their credit cards, wife's going gaurantors for THEM, and borrowing against the wife's pre-marital assets and losing it all. When the funds are dried up, they leave to find their next unsuspecting target. Don't proclaim yourselves so pure, innocent and hard-done-by for a minute!!!; July 23, 2006 2:43 AM
Anonymous said...: "women asking for her financial advice after MEN have ripped them off on their credit cards"

Ok, and they get to be on Suzy's show whereas the guys have no one but the bartenders to go gripe on.

Sorry, but the fellows who used ID fraud, from their ex's old assets can in fact be thrown in jail for identity theft.; July 23, 2006 5:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Yeah, Suze Ormond's show is totally biased against men.

I caught that episode where she had the writer from Sex and the City on there who wrote that book 'He's Just Not That Into You.'

Basically that poser author says guys should always pay for dates because the one who asks the person out should pay ... yeah, right ... women make good money now.

The real reason women 'make less' is because a lot of women decide not to work and instead leech off of men to raise kids. Why the men go for that I have no idea.

Anyways, sure, some men do burn the wife's nest egg, but in marriage settlements where the wife hasn't been working (why hasn't she been working? The man's been supporting her), the wife tends to get a lot of money to support her because of laws dating back before women worked.

So why would I want to put myself in that situation? I don't see Jessica Simpson types with a lot of money lining up to marry guys who make less. If some rich girl says let's get married I'm not going to argue with her, but that's never going to happen.

Anyways, WHATEVER. The only ones I hear bitching about men not marrying them or 'being responsible' and getting married are women. Well if that's what you want find some sucker guy to marry you. There's lots of them out there.; July 23, 2006 8:09 AM
Anonymous said...: "but when you're old and sitting on your couch drinking beer alone and their is no one in the world who gives a shit whether you're dead or alive, maybe you'll understand that it wasn't that great a choice."

Ask yourself would you rather be old and alone? Or old, alone and broke ...

Pretty much answers the answer to the marrying a woman thing.; July 23, 2006 8:52 AM
Anonymous said...: BTW part of the casual dining sector decline is also that so many people in the U.S. are fatties so they are cutting back on their food intake.

So you can add that to my racist card cabron, also the fatty card. LOL; July 23, 2006 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Even the tertiary Southeast "Halfback" markets are talking "Bubble."

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/15102639.htm; July 23, 2006 4:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Silly boys....

Settle down, this is a housing bubble blog, not a woman-haters anon club.

It's too bad you are having trouble finding like-minded frugal woman. My husband of ten years and I both have some bad spending habits: I'll plunk down $150 on a haircut, and he'll buy a progressive scan DVD player for $400.

But, we have zero debt, sold our home in Boxborough, MA in 2004 and are currently renting a 3/2 for $1600 a month.

We operate on a budget (that I manage) and are pretty open with our finances. The only time we have ever had trouble is when we don't plan our expenses.

I suggest you open up a dialogue with your spouse. No one likes ugly surprises. Yahoo Finance has a great budget calculator if you need a place to get started.

cheers,
bostongrrl; July 23, 2006 6:41 PM
Anonymous said...: I used to date women. Instead what I did for the past year was I'd 'hang out' with women as friends.

I'd drop little questions, like mention financial questions, or food questions to get an idea of their finances.

You know what I found? Most all women out there are in a ton of debt! I didn't find 1 frugal woman out of over 30!

Sure it's the same for guys, but where are frugal women?; July 23, 2006 6:46 PM
Anonymous said...: I can tell you there are frugal women out there. I am frugal. I put my self through college and paid off all debt within one year, and paid for all my cars with cash. My problem is finding a frugal man who won't rip me off!; July 23, 2006 7:06 PM
Anonymous said...: I am pretty frugal. My sister is pretty frugal. Maybe it was how we were brought up. Never carry any debt, and credit cards are just for emergencies.

Perhaps a frugal woman is 1 in a 100. I concede there is a disparity in the way women and men spend money, and I have spent a bit of time with some of my girlfriends helping them organize their finances.

However..... never, ever, has one of my girlfriends come home with a new car without even mentioning it to her husband. And I know of two women who have had significant others who have done this.

And don't give me any b.s. about the guy making all the money. One of my friends this happened to is an exec at Hartz.

I think with women it is the drip drip drip of expenses, and with guys, it is the big ticket items that get them into trouble.; July 23, 2006 7:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Boston Girl:
Jus the fact you drop 150 on a haircut I have a prob with. And I run with the 6 fig players. I would never marry a girl who spends 150 on a haircut. Like Tom says... DTB.; July 23, 2006 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: "I am frugal. I put my self through college and paid off all debt within one year, and paid for all my cars with cash. My problem is finding a frugal man who won't rip me off!"

What's your height and weight? ANy woman who is HOT would not have to worry about paying her own debt. Ask Tom. You must be a chunkster or a fugly that has to pay their own way and cant find a man.; July 23, 2006 7:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Exactly my point. Guys and girls have different priorities.

I could never fathom spending the money my husband does on his plasma tv and yamaha stereo system (enough to buy a car!), but I like to have my hair professionally cut and colored. I realize it is an extravagance. Believe you me, it would be the first thing to go if money got tight.

But, we don't have kids... we pull in about $150k a year with no house, no car payments... I have assets allocated in munis, cd's, gold, and the stock market. If I can't enjoy some of what I am working for, what's the point?

Once again, we have zero debt and have no children. If things were different, there would be no expensive haircuts. No more trips to Italy, and no more dinners at fancy Boston restaurants. And certainly no more $100 for some stereo 'monster cable' plated in gold and other precious metals. That's fine, both my husband and I are in agreement with that. That is why I advocate a budget to all my friends.; July 23, 2006 7:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Main Entry: fru·gal
Pronunciation: 'frü-g&l
Function: adjective

: characterized by or reflecting economy in the use of resources; July 23, 2006 7:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Boston, you hubby and you pull in 150k a year and take trips to Italy, Bostone expensive restaurants, 150 haircuts and 100 monster cable. hmmmm. You are definately in for a slap by reality when either, you get knocked up and have to stop working, one loses a job, or an unexpected event such as an accident occurs. I live in California and 150k doesnt get you very far. Especially with kids.; July 23, 2006 8:24 PM
Anonymous said...: "You are definately in for a slap by reality when either, you get knocked up and have to stop working, one loses a job, or an unexpected event such as an accident occurs. I live in California and 150k doesnt get you very far. Especially with kids."

Hard to judge when you don't know what we have in savings. 150k after taxes isn't so bad when you are a renter who lives outside of Boston.

Besides, I was hardly gloating. I mentioned that my husband and I don't have perfect spending habits in my first post. But, I wanted to differentiate between being 'cheap' and being 'frugal'. Most individuals don't understand that you can still have nice things in life if you plan for it. I am sorry if you knocked up someone and are trapped in CA, but life doesn't have to suck for everyone.; July 23, 2006 8:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Will spend 100 to 150 bucks on a haircut. Get used to it - specially if you get married.; July 23, 2006 9:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Yeah, $100-$150 for haircut and coloring is actually the low end for women. I dated a woman in New York who spent $400.

She never had any money, was 'borrowing' money from me, then I found out about the $400 haircut thing, and then it turned out she was cheating on me with another guy on the side and taking him out with the money I was giving her.

Call me a sucker. LOL I have my reasons for not trusting women, believe me.

So now I never pay anything for women. And you know what? I don't get laid any less.

In fact, women don't respect guys who just plunk down money on them. They just use them for cash.

Better have the woman paying for you than the other way around.

Anyways, this does bring up a good topic which is the extreme amount of debt people are carrying around. That and the extreme debt of the U.S.

How can this last with everybody spending so much money and so much debt? It cannot last is the easy answer. Supply side economics doesn't work. It just makes the rich richer and everybody else has a ton of debt.

It's a sick society now.; July 23, 2006 9:41 PM
Anonymous said...: The fact is, the wages just aren't there for these multi-million dollar houses.

The prices have just gotten to the point that nobody can afford them anymore...

So of course the housing market's going to stagnate. And if wages don't rise, it's going to stagnate until inflation creeps up another for people to buy again.

But it doesn't mean everybody's house price is going to drop. Just means that the realtors are going to go bust. hehehehe; July 23, 2006 10:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Somehow, the savers, end up with the spenders. I've had men take money from me. My son's dad took off with 5k, and left me with a newborn, never to be heard from again. Now that was being screwed over big time. I am now married, and run all the household finances, because I don't trust men. By the way, I can't get a good haircoloring job for less than 100 plus 20 tip. It just can't be had. So, I was sick of paying this, and tried to get my husband to do it. What a disaster. After 3 hours, and an incomplete dye job, my husband now says, "go spend the money".; July 23, 2006 10:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Never to be heard from again. And I suppose you didn't do a skiptrace on him to track him down or anything like that?

Unless he changes his identity you can find him. I never understand why women complain about stuff like this. I used to work for an insurance collections agency and you can almost always find people.

Didn't you know his family before you had a kid with him?; July 23, 2006 10:44 PM
Wendy said...: The current flap about the NAR is only the tip of the iceberg:

http://victimordeal.blogspot.com/; July 23, 2006 10:55 PM
Anonymous said...: "Will spend 100 to 150 bucks on a haircut. Get used to it - specially if you get married."
WHat SUpercuts isn't good enough for you. Go get a job and pay for it yourself. As a husband, I refuse to pay for suck crap. If you want to get 15o haircuts, 90 facials, and 100 brazilian butt hair plucking..go pay for it yourself. Again, I am a 6 figure player. Being frugal is how I got there.; July 24, 2006 2:34 AM
Anonymous said...: "I am sorry if you knocked up someone and are trapped in CA, but life doesn't have to suck for everyone."
fyi..I did the whole spending on fabulous vacations, toys and crap when my wife and I were dating. All I am saying is that life progresses. You get married and then the family gorws. Eventually one person will stay home and take care of the kids. I make 6 figs, own a home and it still is tough. Just saying to slowly make that transition from being about 'you , yu, you' because later it wont be all about you. Stop being such a cunt.; July 24, 2006 2:38 AM
Anonymous said...: "fyi..I did the whole spending on fabulous vacations, toys and crap when my wife and I were dating. All I am saying is that life progresses. You get married and then the family gorws. Eventually one person will stay home and take care of the kids. I make 6 figs, own a home and it still is tough. Just saying to slowly make that transition from being about 'you , yu, you' because later it wont be all about you. Stop being such a cunt."

Just wait until your wife leaves you and takes the kids, gets alimony and gets the house...

Will suck to be you. What's the divorce rate in CA now? 75%? It's so high they don't even publish the numbers anymore. Every other state does.; July 24, 2006 3:02 AM
Anonymous said...: LOL... the 'c' word? Did I hit a nerve lover-boy?

Why is it that every guy who is miserable with kids, wants everyone else to have children? Stop being such a Troll.

The world is an over-populated mess. I like my size 6 jeans and can play with my nieces and nephews any time I want. Besides, I like my job. I didn't spend all that time in college and grad school just to get 'knocked up' and spend the rest of my days babysitting. I could have done that without the degree.; July 24, 2006 3:06 AM
Anonymous said...: " LOL... the 'c' word? Did I hit a nerve lover-boy?

Why is it that every guy who is miserable with kids, wants everyone else to have children? Stop being such a Troll.

The world is an over-populated mess. I like my size 6 jeans and can play with my nieces and nephews any time I want. Besides, I like my job. I didn't spend all that time in college and grad school just to get 'knocked up' and spend the rest of my days babysitting. I could have done that without the degree."

And here I thought it was every guy who is miserable with a wife wants every other guy to be miserable. LOL

Most women do want to have kids, though. You're in the minority, that's for sure.; July 24, 2006 3:11 AM
Anonymous said...: "Most women do want to have kids, though. You're in the minority, that's for sure."

I realize I am in the minority. My friend who is the exec at Hartz is the only one from my 'core' group of friends who also hasn't has children.

Women rail against us both for choosing career over kids. It's such a tired old argument.

It's like the bachelor complaint. My brother couldn't be more thrilled living the single life. Maybe he will change, as he is still in his thirties, but right now he is pretty happy. Society is the ultimate 'misery loves company' crowd.

Night all.; July 24, 2006 3:31 AM
Anonymous said...: I saw this on CL today. Pretty bad in Riverside County CA

http://www.forsakencraft.com/proof.htm; July 24, 2006 3:37 AM
Anonymous said...: the reason for the lack of class in '6 figure players' is because just about anyone can make that income these days. Inflation makes it compararable to someone making 50k in the 1980s.

I'm a '6 figure player', plus I'm single and have no bills. My income is more than comfortable and I have a fair amount for savings, but it's not rich by any means.; July 24, 2006 4:16 AM
Anonymous said...: "the reason for the lack of class in '6 figure players' is because just about anyone can make that income these days."
I guess that explaons why most mortgage loans taken on are suicide ARMs, I/O or Option ARMS huh? I'd like to see your measly paycheck. WHat does 'class' have to do with having money? Look at the Donald.; July 24, 2006 5:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Not buying bubble....
At least I have hole to dip my dipstick in evernight unlike you a-hole. Why dont you go back to your cave and spank it to Oprah you friggin hobbit.; July 24, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: Boston Biatch..
Why is it every 'hip and happening'up ward moving professional wanna-b asshole assumes that people with kids are miserable. I kind of understand as I once was you in a sad way. I now love my life. I have a hot 'LA 9' Latina wife, beautiful kids. I own a home free I bought at pre bubble prices in the OC, over 300 in equity.. debt free and making 6 figs.
You really need to think about how time really does fly. Talk to me when your expiration date has come and gone (btw..sounds like its here already)and you try to have kids. Good luck with that 2 headed troll that pops out of your cooch. Sorry, I know I am harsh and I call it as I see it. No better words than a condascending cunt for you. Buenas Noches.; July 24, 2006 5:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Los Angles Friend in deed said:
When Prop 13 in California dies quietly due to the inequity it has created, the real estate market will be further flooded with properties that have been held by people cashing in on that gravy train, specifically those that have held property since 1978, and/or passed on that feeding tube to thier child, at the expense of all thier neigbors in thier community whom have had to subsidize them by having to pay higher property taxes, which cover the services they all share.

Said like a true Idiot who wants something for Nothing - the truth is tax 13 was created so that people who bought their home and lived in it for 30 years or longer and then retired did not loose the home because their neighbors bought and sold homes like they were pairs of socks everytime raising the taxable vaule of the retirees home until they had to sell because they could no longer pay the taxes to live there - so we passed property tax 13 so their taxes were raised 1.5% per year which has more than kept up with the cost of services - I should know I am a auditor with the tax collector for a city in southern california - So next time any Brain-iacs get any stupid Ideas that will only strip away the benifits of homeownership for the long time owners ( Follow these Insturctions - NO 1# Pull your head out of your ASSHOLE NO 2# Shut up all you are proving is that you are a IDIOT....; July 24, 2006 6:31 AM
Anonymous said...: BostonGrrl has proved to the rest of us that she knows how to cut and paste - I'M really impressed - isn't it you bed time! this blog is for People who are Scared about The Fall in the Value of Their Home - not to rub monkeys heads - you got in the wrong line - you are looking for the Barn yard line..; July 24, 2006 6:35 AM
Anonymous said...: "At least I have hole to dip my dipstick in evernight unlike you a-hole. Why dont you go back to your cave and spank it to Oprah you friggin hobbit."

A little testy are we (no pun intended).

Hey, I didn't write the rules so don't get mad at me. You never know, maybe she won't divorce you ...

But if that's all you're getting out of the deal then we should probably name you corn-holio or something like that. LOL; July 24, 2006 8:07 AM
Anonymous said...: See ... this is a good article about why housing will not crash.

Borrowers can keep putting off the higher interest rates indefinitely...

So much for your housing panic.

You housing panic folks are the only ones who have your panties in a twist.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/business/23mortgage.html?ei=5094&en=48d3badc80108762&hp=&ex=1153627200&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1153586813-ngF2Qet+z1yAGSlohNJ4/w; July 24, 2006 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm biding my time, watching prices fall in a condo complex in Destin, FL in which I really would like to own a 2BR/2BA. Been reading this blog and other housing bubble blogs for some time.

Question: will resort/vacation areas like Destin, FL suffer as big a drop as areas like Phoenix/Boston/etc.? Anyone have any advice on northern Florida gulf coast (Panama City to Fort Walton Beach)?

I have seen some descent price declines - as much as 15% so far, but I'm holding off for those 40% to 50% declines and hoping they come.

I'm just concerned that resport/vacation areas like Destin will not drop as much and/or bottom out and even begin to rise while I'm waiting.

Comments?; July 24, 2006 1:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Obviously I didn't post that 'monkey' crap. Wake-up people. Keith should really delete those posts, they are annoying.

I didn't say "every guy" with kids is miserable. I said "every miserable guy with kids". (which, I admit, is an overstatement)

-"Sorry, I know I am harsh and I call it as I see it. No better words than a condascending cunt for you. Buenas Noches."

I love it when people can't spell.

I could EASILY sit here and spout the same horrid vitriol that seems to be the only way some of you communicate, but, instead, I was trying to show a different point of view. How pathetic.... It's sounds corny, but no gentleman would ever respond to a woman in such a fashion. I believe it says a lot about you, and how you treat your family.; July 24, 2006 2:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Words of wisdom... provided you have good health, money should bring you happiness.

If not then you may need some psychiatric help because there are some unconscious obstructions to experiencing this happiness (i.e. need to belong, need to impress others, need to feel important, etc).; July 24, 2006 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: July 24, 2006 5:57:04 AM

Anonymous said...

Said like a true Idiot who wants something for Nothing - the truth is tax 13 was created so that people who bought their home and lived in it for 30 years or longer and then retired did not loose the home because their neighbors bought and sold homes like they were pairs of socks

You got that right.I live in a small paid for home in LA.Have a modest pension.If it wasen't for 13,I would have been kicked out long ago.Asshole politicos fought it like crazy until it began to snowball then they all the lyin bastards jumped on board.Sound like somebody bought in to high,to late.Nobodty told ya to.; July 24, 2006 3:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Boston Biatch said...
" I believe it says a lot about you, and how you treat your family."
I treat my wife with the upmost respect because she recognizes her place in our household, the wife/mother. She is educated, smart, financially savy, takes care of my children, excellent cook, keeps a clean home and takes care of me. What more can I ask. She left her corporate job to stay at home. She isnt celf-centered,selfish and controlling as most of these career woman are. For that I respect and love her to death. On the otherhand, I have no problem calling a woman who is a cunt a cunt. Just calling it like I see it.; July 24, 2006 7:33 PM
Anonymous said...: I've been watching these MLS reports for a while, wondering when they might start to reflect the reality I see on the ground. I live near Thousand Oaks, Ventura County, CA and prices have clearly dropped during the past six months but only today does the report at http://tinyurl.com/md468 show declines for the first time (Steamy Valley is the next town over). I think this drop is a bit understated. (The Miami report shows no real price drop and we all know what's happening in Miami!). I understand there are many ways to manipulate the MLS numbers, seller pays closing costs, seller buys buyer a car, seller gives buyer a suitcase of money, etc., to keep the official "sales price" artificially inflated but it looks like the market forces have plowed through those and actual nominal price decreases will start showing up in the realtor-baked numbers in a big way in the very near future! If they're giving up on or are no longer able to perpetuate the lie in Los Angeles, I think they'll soon give up on the rest of California and the west.; July 24, 2006 9:01 PM
Anonymous said...: "" I believe it says a lot about you, and how you treat your family."
I treat my wife with the upmost respect because she recognizes her place in our household, the wife/mother. She is educated, smart, financially savy, takes care of my children, excellent cook, keeps a clean home and takes care of me. What more can I ask. She left her corporate job to stay at home. She isnt celf-centered,selfish and controlling as most of these career woman are. For that I respect and love her to death. On the otherhand, I have no problem calling a woman who is a cunt a cunt. Just calling it like I see it."

Yeah, I was behind a guy in his car today with a bumpersticker, "Outlaw Abortion, the supreme court said slavery was legal too" and "Tolerance is only for those who have no convications".

I followed him into the parking lot where he worked, and was about to ask him if since he didn't believe in tolerance, if it was okay if I beat him up.

But I decided not to ... because he'd probably be a wimp and press assault charges.

People rarely practice what they preach. IMHO the only people who call others cunts (and not using it affectionately ) are dicks.; July 24, 2006 10:03 PM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/rzdgb

This is so funny, now if prices would just really fall, so people can get some good deals.

Nope, just isn't going to happen. LOL; July 24, 2006 10:26 PM
Anonymous said...: "My problem is finding a frugal man who won't rip me off!"

Oh yeah? I am 51, good job good pay, never married, debt free, money in 401K and the bank (and a stash of gold and guns/ammo), not fat, no hair loss or gray, big d*ck, pilot, own a plane or two which I keep on my 20 acre airstrip so flying away for the weekend is real easy. I do not have a woman. North Alabama (no bubble popping here, yet). And I do not rip off women.

so?; July 24, 2006 10:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Having a handle like 'Not buying the bubble' automaticaly makes 'you' a 'dick'.
At this moment in time, I am baffled there is someone out there that still thinks there is no bubble. LMFAO. What a loser. GO 'EDJUMUCATE' YOURSELF...
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/; July 24, 2006 10:57 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't buy there will be a big crash ...

What makes you think there will be? Are you from the future or something?

Housing hardly ever crashes in a big way. I have a list of all the major housing crashes and it was always due to a major economic downturn and then only in a local market.

Why don't you edjumucate yourself before you spout so much B.S.?; July 24, 2006 11:25 PM
Anonymous said...: no hair loss or gray

How do you manage no gray at 51? Do you dye? Are you male?; July 24, 2006 11:26 PM
Anonymous said...: To the "Not Buying The Bubble" man,
if you're don't believe in the froth, then why are you on a contrarian web site?

I mean that's like Kudlow spending time on prudentbear.com to argue going long on the S&P500 when the web site is almost strictly bearish on all S&P type of bullish indicators.; July 24, 2006 11:28 PM
Anonymous said...: Duh ... you want to debate you don't preach to the choir.; July 24, 2006 11:32 PM
foxwoodlief said...: You don't need to wait for the bubble to burst if you want a bargain. I just took a trip through the gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana and there were some homes in Port Arthur going for $18 a sq ft and the average in the area was $16 a sq ft. The one house was on Lakeview Drive, along the waterway of Sabine Pass, built turn of the century, 2 story, 2,600 sq ft for a whopping $44,000. Of course the town has nothing but a boarded up and abandoned historic downtown (the strip mall side of town is where the little action there is in town is happening) and if you want a job you have to work for the oil industry (so no horrible wages compared to cost of housing).

I guess if people would just spread out instead of all moving to Phoenix, LA, Boston, Miami then home prices would fall considerably. Maybe a lottery to decide who gets to live in the most desirable places?

I'd rather pay $500,000 for a condo in San Jose and have a job that pays six figures than the larger house in Port Arthur, Tx. It is all about location and jobs. That great sucking sound you've heard for the past 30 years is all our jobs fleeing overseas leaving behind decaying city and town all across America. Or maybe it is just the Real Estate Industrial Complexes way of getting people to move to ever more congested and expensive cities so they can keep people buying houses. Mega Cities are giant black holes that suck in as many people and businesses as possible at the detriment of our environment and small communities. Maybe we should limit cities/metro ares to not exceed 2 million people. Whatever the future holds, people don't hold declining assests only increasing ones and the bubbles they create will always exist, some winners, some losers (though in the end I guess the whole planet looses).; July 25, 2006 12:09 AM
Anonymous said...: "gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana and there were"

I guess you forgot something called HURRICANES???

And what with global warming making them even worse ...

You might spend 40 grand and find your house destructed in the next couple of years.; July 25, 2006 12:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Before you buy a house in hurricane land you might want to look at this:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/portarthur.htm; July 25, 2006 12:28 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm; July 25, 2006 12:30 AM
Anonymous said...: "
Housing hardly ever crashes in a big way."
There are 30% drop in prices in some areas. Do some research. 30% drop qualifies as significant drop dont you think? asswipe. You like many other idiots are waiting for a dot com style bust and if you dont see it overnight, its not a crash. DUH!; July 25, 2006 1:00 AM
Anonymous said...: "Housing hardly ever crashes in a big way."
There are 30% drop in prices in some areas. Do some research. 30% drop qualifies as significant drop dont you think? asswipe. You like many other idiots are waiting for a dot com style bust and if you dont see it overnight, its not a crash. DUH!"

Somebody's upset the houses aren't crashing and he's out of the market ... LOL; July 25, 2006 1:19 AM
Anonymous said...: Wrong again
.. I just sold my home I bought at pre bubble prices to some idiot. Paid off all my debt and walked awau with over 300k. Will buy in again when the floor drops out. When your Option ARM adjusts, give me a call. I might take that POS of your hands. See you on foreclosure.com LOL!!; July 25, 2006 1:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Cut it out "bubble", Housing is crashing and its picking up steam.......much like Housing busts do, they start with a slow motion and pick up speed down the mountain. We picked up some speed in the summer over spring, normally the biggest part of the season for RE. What kind of speed pickup do you think we will get in the fall?

Your a freaking moron.; July 25, 2006 1:40 AM
Anonymous said...: I'd believe you if I was seeing any significant price drops, but there aren't any.

Sorry, Charlie. LOL

You guys are kindof funny, you know? Looking for disaster and when you don't get any you get all pissed off.

Want disaster? Go visit Baghdad. It's a disaster there pretty much every day.

Besides like I said before I don't have any POS house. While 1/2 of you are buying houses and 1/2 of you are holding out, I bought OIL ...

Ahahahahahahaha; July 25, 2006 1:47 AM
Anonymous said...: These new houses are pieces of crap. Have you seen how they build them?

You shouldn't put your money into the crap they build these days. MDF, Tyvek, utter crapola.; July 25, 2006 1:50 AM
Anonymous said...: There is an aspect to the coming economic downturn - increased crime - that many here have discussed. Another blog, http://paper-money.blogspot.com/ , discusses this. They found this article which I think is right on.

http://tinyurl.com/j98yg

"A recent federal report confirms what anecdotal evidence from across America suggests: Bloodshed in U.S. cities, both large and small, is on the rise.

According to preliminary FBI statistics released in June, violent crime in the United States rose 3 percent in 2005, the largest one-year increase since 1991."

I think that a lot of cities do not like to relesae actual crime stats because it affects people's desire to live there. The stats can be found on sites like:

http://www.city-data.com/

I bought some 9mm ammo at the local Walmart (USA made, I think) and had to show ID to prove I was a resident of AL. Show license, no problems, no records. The salesperson said if I had a CA or OH ID he could not sell the ammo to me. Sweet (now) home Alabama. CA born and raised, never gonna live there again.; July 25, 2006 2:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Inventory for existing just released from NAR: UP to 6.8 months of supply.

http://www.realtor.org/PublicAffairsWeb.nsf/Pages/06JuneEHS?OpenDocument; July 25, 2006 3:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Get a load of Lereah:

"The big worry is that sales will fall so sharply that it could send shockwaves through the entire economy, much as the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 contributed to the 2001 recession.

Economists expect the decline in the economy to contribute to a slowdown in growth but not result in an outright recession.

Lereah said he believed price weakness will continue as sellers start cutting their asking prices in the face of weaker demand and rising inventories.

He said that housing continued to be a "tale of two markets" with previously hot areas experiencing declines and more modestly priced areas showing a boom.

Lereah said that while New York City, Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis had seen sales declines, cities such as Syracuse and Pittsburgh were experiencing rising sales.

By state, Maryland and Virginia were experiencing weakness while Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee were enjoying sales increases, Lereah said."

Start another bubble. Same idea, different locatipon. Gawd, I hope TN doesn't get overrun with flippers. Huntsville, AL already has bidding wars on SFHs and people who have no business being RE "investors" talking about buying houses with the equity from the house they already have (newby fliptoids).; July 25, 2006 4:12 PM
Anonymous said...: The Housing Bubble in IRAN! ...

"Housing remains a problem, both in Tehran and other major cities. A one-bedroom apartment in the capital can cost $500,000, well beyond the means of the average Iranian. Since mortgages are un-Islamic, buyers must pay cash. President Ahmadinejad recently proclaimed an interest-free loan program for potential homebuyers on a limited budget that dodges the religious objections of clerics. But the amounts offered are paltry in comparison with the inflated real estate prices."; July 25, 2006 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is a "Good One" Keith, now that I am finished talking about my Love Life on HP.

http://tinyurl.com/fr5w6

You have a lot of work to do yet my bubbleish friend.; July 25, 2006 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: "no hair loss or gray

How do you manage no gray at 51? Do you dye? Are you male? "

Male for sure. All due to good male genes, probably from my Mother's side since my Grandfather died at 93 with all his hair. For me, no dye, no loss. Heck, I keep it shortish and don't even need to comb!

6 figs, no debt, no kids, working on conning my secure employer to buy me a engineering masters degree which I do while I work. Life is good.; July 25, 2006 6:31 PM
Anonymous said...: TTFS, you sound hot, got a pic?; July 25, 2006 7:43 PM
Anonymous said...: I am hot. It is 91 degrees outside and I got pretty steamy walking back into the office after going out for lunch. There is not enough AC in this building!

Airwoofer@yahoo.com; July 25, 2006 8:18 PM
Anonymous said...: http://tinyurl.com/fr5w6

Public Poll Says No bubble In Orlando, Fl; July 25, 2006 9:17 PM
Anonymous said...: It is funny to see as time goes on, more and more people trying to make themselves feel better by saying that nothing is wrong. Of course this thing is largely geographical.

Also kind of interesting to see how ugly things are getting between folks on here as this thing comes down. It is obvious that people are emotional about this subject, emotions are what drive the economy. Fear being a primary one, and greed being another. Greed brought this thing up, and Fear will bring it down.; July 25, 2006 11:33 PM
the pope said...: It is funny to see as time goes on, more and more people trying to make themselves feel better by saying that nothing is wrong.

nothing is wrong.

I feel better already!

http:vancouvercondo.info; July 26, 2006 12:59 AM
Anonymous said...: "It is funny to see as time goes on, more and more people trying to make themselves feel better by saying that nothing is wrong. Of course this thing is largely geographical.

Also kind of interesting to see how ugly things are getting between folks on here as this thing comes down. It is obvious that people are emotional about this subject, emotions are what drive the economy. Fear being a primary one, and greed being another. Greed brought this thing up, and Fear will bring it down."

If you consider for a moment that the globe is obviously getting hotter, and people are such idiots that they don't even do something about global warming which is causing massive heat waves, floods, tornados, hurricanes, etc ...

Why worry about housing? Pretty soon the entire human race will be wiping itself out. Might as well just have a beer and go to a (night-time) ball game.; July 26, 2006 1:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Here's a fun little link for you HPers to show why you're such retards.

A guy at work owns a house in this complex in Eastside Seattle. He showed me this link, showing that house prices ARE STILL RISING.

Read it and weep. Loudly.

http://abellahomes.com/vintagevalues/avignon.htm; July 26, 2006 2:14 AM
Anonymous said...: So prices are still rising in Seattle, they aren't it most of the rest of the country and the rising inventory in Seattle will begin the downtrend soon enough as well as the Recession that will likely begin in January 2007. When the Real Estate industry goes into 2007, it will forecast business and production at MUCH lower levels than 2006 because of the crash. 2006 "production" is a ghost right now, based on 2005 estimates which were the height of the boom and if anything, helping to push down prices in 2007 by overbuilding. Everything must end.

Posts like your making describe your character or lack of one. Embarrasing.; July 26, 2006 3:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Housing starts are down somewhat, but hardly anything. Still well over a million for the year, as were permits.

This gravy train's slowing down, but it's not stopping yet.; July 26, 2006 3:33 AM
Anonymous said...: "Posts like your making describe your character or lack of one. Embarrasing."

Posts like yours are the reason I resort to personal attacks like calling people retards.

Because all you guys start with the personal attacks, so why not continue?

Why deal rationally with the subject matter when instead you can sprew insults ($&#($*&#()&$*)#$$#$#$; July 26, 2006 3:37 AM
Anonymous said...: To: Not buying the bubble

You seem like a real smart cookie.

So, put your money where your mouth is... and snatch up some of that AZ SFH that must be at fire sale prices to someone like you who can't deal with the reality that real estate in general is biting the big one.

SO SMART ASS, PUT UP OR SHUT UP!; July 26, 2006 4:52 AM
Holgs said...: "Housing starts are down somewhat, but hardly anything"

So, Braniac, can you point me to some literature somewhere that says more supply is bullish for prices?; July 26, 2006 7:04 AM
Anonymous said...: ABC MSM had a blurb on the "housing bubble" popping. they blamed rising 30 year interest rates (5.8 to 6.8%, big deal) and flippers dumping at the same time builders are throwing in discounts/incentives. No mention of the low teaser rate, IO, etc... causing the runup. No mention of the impending economic recession due to the housing crash.

MSM is also posting NARs 3.5M inventory. I do not think that includes FSBO or builder inventories. The number could be much higher.; July 26, 2006 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...: "Not buying the bubble"

If you dare answer these questions...

What do you do for a living?
Where are you located?
Do you own real estate?

Just curious. I'd like to get a basis on your opinion of the market, and find out why the place where your brain resides seems to reek of partially digested carnitas burritos.

You can deny it all you want, but in my opinion - You wouldn't be on this site if you weren't concerned about where the market is headed.

Sincerely,

Rdub

(P.S. I really am interested in the questions above.); July 26, 2006 5:22 PM
Anonymous said...: I read that there is a big shortage of long haul truck drivers. These trucks are like rolling houses inside. I wonder how many FBs who lose their house, or FBs who lose their job and their house, or REIC scum, will get into long haul trucking.

I don't think they even need good credit...; July 26, 2006 6:01 PM
Anonymous said...: "Just curious. I'd like to get a basis on your opinion of the market, and find out why the place where your brain resides seems to reek of partially digested carnitas burritos."

You get no answers because you are acting like a nasty person.

LOL; July 26, 2006 6:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Maybe the Mexicans are getting the drift of the REIC collapse. they are staying home. Does the better gaurded border keep them from returning to Mexico??

USA Today
July 26, 2006
Pg. 8

Southern Border Immigrant Arrests Fall

The number of illegal immigrants caught trying to enter the USA from Mexico dropped after President Bush deployed the military to tighten the border, the Border Patrol chief said Tuesday.

David Aguilar said that in the 69 days since Bush announced the military deployment in mid-May, there was a 45% decline in arrests of illegal immigrants along the U.S.-Mexican border compared with the 69 days before the announcement. “We are becoming more efficient,” Aguilar said.

The decline is greater than the 27% to 29% that was typical during the hot summer months in 2005 and 2004, said Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokesman Michael Friel.; July 26, 2006 6:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my stafford loan interest rates site.
Good luck!; July 26, 2006 7:56 PM
Anonymous said...: The massive speculatory bubble and its stupid brother in arms the Real Estate bubble are near end!!!!

The key with the bust of the Real Estate market is whether "by itself" put the economy in recession? IMO it can. Growth will probably go negative in this area of the economy over the next 1-2 quarters, which will set off a economic recession in the US by Q1/2 2007 as the decline continues(Maybe Q4 if it speeds up). It will at first seem like a harmless recession, but how the credit ponzi scheme and the rest of the world react/deal with this recession, will depend if it turns into something "worse". A fun time for the next 6-12 months for sure.; July 26, 2006 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my windows xp pro retail site.
Good luck!; July 27, 2006 2:38 AM
Anonymous said...: Mr. Not Buying the Bubble,

You might want to rethink your position, at least when it comes to many parts of Florida.
-------------------------------

From Barron’s Market Week:

“A Free Pool Means Housing Trouble”

Housing Industry Overview by JMP Securities

July 17: Florida appears to be in serious trouble. Following our recent Florida trip, which focused on the condo market in the Southeast and Southwest coasts of Florida, this time we spent three days touring three of the largest [housing] markets in Florida including Orlando, Tampa, and Port St. Lucie/West Palm Beach to better assess the current situation in the Florida single-family housing market.

What we observed and the conclusions we draw in this report are in many ways similar to our previous observations and may seem dramatic, but we believe they speak of the speculative excesses over the last couple of years in the market.

“Turn the Key and the Home is Free!” This headline comes from a two-full-page ad in the Orlando Sentinel. It refers to a promotion for which Lennar is offering to give away 110 homes in Central Florida next month for visiting one of their communities and participating in a drawing…We found several several promotions, including:

“Your first-year mortgage is on us.”
“No money down. No closing costs.”
“Free pool, $1 moves you in, 12-month locked-in rate, lower your payment with a 50-year loan.”
“Guaranteed pricing is here – if at the time of closing, the price of the home has been lowered, we’ll reduce the price to match”…
“Zero, Zip, Nada, No matter how you say it, it still means no money down!”
“Guaranteed buy-out program for your present home.”

Sold-out communities are ghost towns. Many of the communities we toured that were nearly sold out are essentially ghost towns. We would characterize them as about 20% to 40% occupied, half likely by renters. The remainder consists of unoccupied homes, most of which have lockboxes and for-sale or for-rent signs either on the lawn or in their windows. Several of these homes are for-sale-by-owner, thus they do not appear in the inventories reported by the Multiple Listing Service.

We spoke with many of these investors and their brokers. Most have sat on these empty homes for six to eight months, and though they may have dropped their asking price from their initial levels, they’re still asking for a few thousand above their cost…Very few are mentally prepared to accept losses. A few…are asking for prices that are 10% to 20% below “market” prices, and yet have received [no] offers.

- Alex Barron; July 27, 2006 3:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Why do you gloom-and-doomers hate America so much?

Venezuela and Cuba are waiting for you.

How can we win the War on Terror if people like you undermine our economy at home by trying to talk down the real estate market?

Seriously, why do you hate your country so much?; July 27, 2006 2:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "The fasteset way that a successful man can meet financial ruin is to get married.

I should say get married without a prenup.

Then yours becomes "ours" what I really mean is hers.

Then when she gets tired of you she'll file a no fault divorce and take half your stuff.

Sounds like an awesome deal where do I sign?"

Amen, brother! If men added up all the money they threw at women and then counted the number of satisfying orgasms they had with these women, the cost per orgasm is astounding, financially self-destructive, and downright depressing.

Most men are far better off with a dog and spending FAR LESS on a call girl on occasion.

I advise all teenage males of sexual maturity and those in their early 20s to spend the money to save their sperm at a sperm bank and have a vasectomy. Then, when you're at "a certain age" and feel you absolutely must have an heir or some poor unfortunate creature carry on your withering DNA, then you can pay and artificially inseminate the semen receptacle of your choice to bear the little monster for you.

Otherwise, orgasms are too damn expensive, except for the wealthiest of men.

Most women are ghastly whores or once were and retain the negative effects, and the vast majority are utterly unprepared to be wives and mothers. No intelligent man who has any pride or self-respect would get married to a western woman today and have children with her.; July 27, 2006 3:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Yo, "Proud American"

We don't hate America, just
traitors to the consitution like
you and Bush.

Why do you right wing nut jobs
insist on ruining our economy
by spending like drunken sailors?
Then you blame the messenger for
the bad news. Its about to get a
lot worse for you bucko.

El Maha del Norte; July 27, 2006 4:57 PM
Anonymous said...: "Or...could the explanation be you're too much of a loser to find the healthy, high-self-esteem, pretty, great women?"

How do you define "loser"? Does a $3.7M net wealth and $225K income sound like a loser?

Does never having married the typical American/Canadian/British/European semen receptacle and having young, gorgeous whores spreading their legs for me sound like a "loser"?

And, do you know how many MARRIED "healthy, high-self-esteem, pretty, great married women" I've been with in the past 20 years or more? I've lost count. Why did they cheat? Because they were whores? They wanted the excitement, the intrigue, and the naughtiness of it all. They wanted the power associated with not getting caught and having a secret over their spouses. They wanted to be taken sexually by a handsome, successful, virile, well-equipped male other than their spouse. They wanted the memories. Yes, some of them are immature enough to think that they could cheat and find an excuse to leave their husbands, but most of them were/are more fatalistic about their indiscretions or they assume that their husbands have done or are doing the same thing and want to even the score. Most of you guys, I suspect, have no idea how easy it is to seduce your wives into infidelity, especially today when it has become almost recreation for many or most women, if they can pull it off.

If you're past perhaps age 60-65, autofx, and married before or around the late '60s, then perhaps your wife or wives were never whores or do not suffer the effects of the inner shame of having been a whore. If so, then you're a fortunate man to have found what is now the exception.

However, if you have a daughter or daughters, I would bet a large share of my fortune that she is or they are or have been sexually promiscuous women you likely would not marry were you a young, single man today. If so, I have had dozens of pieces of human trash like this.

I do not have low self-esteem. I have clarity of understanding and experience with these women. Do you want to know what is tragic? Most women know I'm right and haven't a clue as to what to do to salvage their reputations and their own self-esteem, and the worst part is that they are having daughters who are or will be worse than they are.

What does this have to do with a housing blog? Plenty. A man is a fool to work night and day for slave wages and subject himself to a life of debt servitude FOR A WOMAN. Face it, that's why men do it: for a woman. The vast majority of women are not worth the sacrifice, and you know it.

Think about it.; July 27, 2006 5:53 PM
Anonymous said...: "What does this have to do with a housing blog? Plenty. A man is a fool to work night and day for slave wages and subject himself to a life of debt servitude FOR A WOMAN. Face it, that's why men do it: for a woman. The vast majority of women are not worth the sacrifice, and you know it."

Unfortunately I agree with pretty much everything you've said here. Unfortunately I don't know how to have safe sex, though. Because condoms don't work that well (especially with HPV and herpes) and there are so many STDs out there.

Oh, well.; July 27, 2006 6:03 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: Just heard some sad news.....my husband just got back from a Santa Ana electrial supplier class that he had to take from his employer here in Reno. This other classmate sells industrial electrial to Magic Mountain amusement park. He told my husband that the owner of Magic Mountain sold out becuase he is tired of all the gang problems.

I had no idea of the horrible gang problems at amusement parks. My husband said these gangs may move to Disneyland instead when MM closes down.

I think this is new news and not out in the public yet. Thought I would post it here for all the HP bloggers.

Would like some feedback from any of you that live in that area.; July 27, 2006 6:08 PM
Anonymous said...: LauraVella,

I grew up in that area. My Dad owns a print shop, and most of his work comes from Magic Mountain.

The gangs aren't a problem. The fact that they would make more money selling the land that the park is on, then they would continuing to operate the park is the true issue here.

The loss of this park will be a major hit to the local economy for the santa clarita valley. Many local businesses get a big % of their revenues from the park, and it employees a TON of highschool students.

Greedy Bastards. Santa Clarita Valley's local economy will suffer tremendously if this truly happens.

Hopefully this thing comes crashing down before they get a chance to sell off the rides and the land.

GRRRR!!!! this pisses me off.
That place kicks Disneylands ass.; July 27, 2006 6:20 PM
Anonymous said...: I side with old and rich on this.

I know a guy that has had one these recepticles get knocked up and the first thing they did was drag him into court for 20 years of money. He wasn't smart like his rich buddy to get the tubes snipped and now he pays dearly.

If the divorce laws were a level playing field maybe American women wouldn't be so underisable. Except the married ones, they have no recourse on the guy they cheated on. Fire away!!

Just like a boat, plane, house, or woman - it is cheaper to rent than to buy.; July 27, 2006 7:04 PM
Anonymous said...: I threw this up on the wrong thread. Sorry for the repeat:

I think the Dems like welfare. LBJ got his 100 years of N votes when they passed welfare. Shillery is taking plays from the same book. Print, debt, tax, spend...

Please consider the "American Dream Initiative".

The initiative was unveiled Monday at the annual meeting of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council by Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York with support from Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. All three may run for president in 2008.

"This American Dream initiative is a series of proposals to renew and strengthen the middle class and to help pave the way for the poor to work their way out of poverty," Clinton told about 375 local and state Democratic elected officials.

Democrats outline 'dream' project

$3,000 college tuition tax credits to help families pay for college.
A permanent "saver's credit" aimed at helping low-income families build equity by having the government match 50% of their savings, up to $2,000 a year.
$500 savings bonds for each of the 4 million children born annually in the United States and letting families with income under $75,000 augment the bonds by putting existing annual tax credits in them.
Pooling small businesses into a single national insurance purchase pool to augment bargaining power and streamline administrative costs.
Universal health care for children. The DLC says 9 million Americans under age 18 are uninsured.
Setting up an independent commission to crack down on business subsidies, which Clinton, Vilsack and their compatriots believe save the government $250 billion over 10 years.
Tax credits for employers that offer employee housing assistance programs, especially for public employees, and a $5,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.; July 27, 2006 7:17 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Amazing how this site can stray from the debate on where is the US and World Housing markets headed? If one includes world events to hint at how they might or are impacting the world economy or prices is one thing but to bash Jews, Muslims, piss on women, marriage, bash gay's or those who are financially more successful than you, what's with that?

If the Real Estate Industrial complex has manipulated the market, over built, sold to investors and flippers to the deteriment of a normal housing market and as a result billions are lost, those responsible should be held to account and prosecuted. We all will pay a price, some more than others which is the point of this whole blog, how do you protect yourself which we all answer with "Live within your means and buy a home not an investment."

As we all have seen and we all know someone who has jumped on the real estate bandwagon. I had two Administrators at the Hospital where I worked who bought new homes with the intent on renting them out for at least a year then selling them for a big profit. I warned them they were making a mistake and told them they missed the opportunity by about one year. They bought these homes in April of 2005 in Phoenix and took 8 months to build. By the time they closed the market had slumped. They both rent them out for a loss of about $400 a month only because they have interest only loans. They do benefit from a huge tax credit for the loss since they earn between $150,000-250,000 a year so in the end who knows how they'll turn out on this deal.

The full impact will not be known for two or three years at the earliest. At least the shift from real estate as a quick path to riches seems to have started and that correction will be healthy. A soft landing? Not sure how that can happen if the states that have the largest bubbles show major corrections as they will impact the whole country.

Still, for the past 30 years all I've seen is NY, California, Mass, NJ, export their house inflation to the rest of the nation. In each slow down and correction the pattern seems to be those states prices tend to come down until they almost catch up to the price of their exported inflation costs to other states and then take off again as more people begin to move back into those more desirable markets and they whole cycle seems to start again.

I've heard people in Phoenix say that now that prices in SD are coming down they see no reason not to move there over staying in Phoenix since the cost ratio between the two cities has closed.

I'd love to see how many people plan on moving back to California if prices come down. I hear that the state is again in a positive net in-migration so how will that absorb those excess units?

Bring the focus of this site back to what is, a house blog and leave the vicous attacks and religion to those blogs that cater to that type of mentality.; July 27, 2006 7:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Word.

(for you old folks out there. this means. "I totally agree".); July 27, 2006 9:59 PM
Anonymous said...: New Home Sales came in at 1.131, though that will be revised down to about 1.075, closing in on less than a 1.000. Another sign of the Real Estate bust that is coming.

Lereah sounds likes he is melting down now, hoping the FED will loosen credit again. The problem Mr. Lereah is, that if the FED did that, it wouldn't go back into Real Estate, but into economic sectors that cause major inflation. We would have, even in this low wage growth environment, major inflation that would match the 73-81 cycle. Thus stagflating the economy.

Bernanke is in a tough spot and we will see if he is Paul Volcker or A.Burns.; July 27, 2006 10:28 PM
Anonymous said...: No intelligent man who has any pride or self-respect would get married to a western woman today and have children with her.

Dear Old_and_Rich,
You really made some bad choices in your past relationships. I am sorry for you.

I, on the other hand, have the same feelings towards flippers, realtwhores, insurance companies and lawyers that you have for women.; July 27, 2006 10:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Honestly, I don't think we can blame women. In fact you should probably feel sorry for them.

I mean, their whole self worth is predicated on their looks, which is extremely ironic considering that after 30 most women aren't sexy anymore, and in the U.S. so many women are so fat and disgusting it's unbelievable.

This, plus the fact that their gender identity is breaking down and they're trying to juggle career, then finding out when they're 35+ that they're more successful than a lot of guys and most guys don't really want to give them the time of day.

It's kindof sad, really ... not to mention all the STDs and all that. I mean the most common STD of them all, HPV, causes cervical cancer. Condoms don't even protect you against HPV.

Anyway, whatever. Talking about bubbles and women is kindof boring.

I'll check back when things are at their worst and housing's dropped 10-20% in the most run-up markets in few years.

Until then ...; July 27, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't know, women between 30-35 are at their peek of matureness and youth. 20's women simply aren't fully developed yet, by the late 30's decline has begun.; July 27, 2006 11:17 PM
Anonymous said...: "I don't know, women between 30-35 are at their peek of matureness and youth. 20's women simply aren't fully developed yet, by the late 30's decline has begun."

Decline has begun at 18.; July 27, 2006 11:51 PM
Anonymous said...: KEITH,
Why do you allow this woman bashing to go on? Do you not believe that many of your readers are women? There certainly are some angry men out there, and I doubt very much that women are to blame. How 'bout a little personal responsiblity from the men?; July 28, 2006 1:19 AM
Anonymous said...: repeat: international women

it's amazing. They think normal American guys are pretty good (which they are, compared to many of the men in their home countries). They don't all blow money like tap water water on idiotic crap, because they have experience how times can suddenly get bad. They think fat is gross and SUV's idiotic.

And they actively believe that being a bitch is wrong, and they really want to be nice to their husband.; July 28, 2006 2:42 AM
Anonymous said...: yo... Keith is not in town and people can keep posting... chill out man... it's a free for all.. don't blame where the talk is going on a person who has no control... you troll; July 28, 2006 4:05 AM
Anonymous said...: No, the real decline begins after 12!!!!!; July 28, 2006 4:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Guys.

I am hotter and make more money than any of you braggots. Go get some fresh air.; July 28, 2006 6:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Stock markets to the MOON!!!!!

Absolute insanity. A slowdown in growth and the markets fly higher. Based on the fact that the lemmings think that this means that the Fed will quit raising. Sorry to disappoint but inflation is ugly and therefore rates will continue to rise. The LOW IQ's in the market and the herd mentality is amazing. The markets will melt down and those piling in now are the biggest morons on the planet.; July 28, 2006 4:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Sorry to disappoint but inflation is ugly and therefore rates will continue to rise

I agree with you, and I do not think the interest rates going north will stop any time soon.; July 28, 2006 5:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Ben Bernanke is an inflation targeter, not a GDP targeter.

Inflation up, GDP down: what to do?

The entire point of inflation targeting theory is that if inflation is past desired values, you will tighten, no matter what.

The idea is to induce "rational expectations" of controlled inflation, and you do that by whacking the market in the face until it understands.

The market thinks that ol Senile is in still charge.

Negatory.; July 28, 2006 5:52 PM
Anonymous said...: What kind of personal responsibility would you like me to accept?

I'm not a fan of american women. Never have been and as time goes on, my opinion only grows stronger. For the record, I have found some very rare good ones, but they are EXTREMELY rare.

What's with this word "'bout"?? the word is "about", so why the apostrophe? That's representative of the attitude. "I'm carefree, quirky, with my own individual style. How 'bout a little personal responsibility, because it's never my fault it's always you."

Something along those lines. It's sickening, holier than though, emotional tactic.; July 28, 2006 8:25 PM
Anonymous said...: thou*; July 28, 2006 8:25 PM
Anonymous said...: autofx, what if old_and_rich is the norm for "winners" today? IOW, what if he is telling the truth, he is perfectly well adjusted and content, and he is the archetype for today's/tomorrow's success?! What if a "loser" to you is today's and tomorrow's "winner"? Depressing, yes, but what if . . .?; July 28, 2006 8:53 PM
Anonymous said...: MUST READ THIS - the condo flippers in Phoenix are SCREWED, SCREWED, SCREWED. 37% price drop for closed unts this year, if I am reading this right. I also knew that Optima was a disaster of a project.

http://housingdoom.com/bubble/2006/07/28/phoenix-condominiums/; July 28, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Lots of people say bout. 'How bout'.; July 28, 2006 11:21 PM
Anonymous said...: confused_and_dazed.. it's not a what if. I have friends who are very successful, well adjusted and content, but refuse to get married or have a girlfriend for longer than a couple months. Hookers, regular girls, they don't care...

They regard the married type as losers.

Much of "morality" is pushed on us by women and by the powers that be in an effort to control us.; July 29, 2006 1:26 AM
Anonymous said...: The massive speculatory bubble is nearing the end as is its whore, the Real Estate bubble.

Now that we know Chairman Strong's err I mean Chairman Greenspans monetary disaster he created between 2001-06 is on similiar path as Strong's illegal open market operations BS during 22-28 that inflated the massive Real Estate and Stock Market bubbles during that time are on the same path, disaster is evident. Being a Friedman/Keynes follower, Bernanke will try and "inflate" out of the depression, creating W.Germany era hyper-inflation. My goodness, the disaster that will create. Though on the good side, Keynes and Friedman will be at last completely discredited.

A collapse is coming to Internatational Fiat and the return of metal backed currency again. Sadly China has got gold up the ying(no joke lol) yang(again lol!!). Whatever you say about those bastards, they are looking ahead.; July 29, 2006 4:35 AM
Anonymous said...: can someone start a blog site to help us "hper's" from making some mad money... like which homebuilders to short, mortgage lenders, etc.... i think this is a great site... but i want make some mad money off the fools of these obese americans... driving suvs; July 29, 2006 9:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Texas hill country affected by bubbles on each coast!
I live on a small ranch one hour west of Austin, Texas and San Antonio. Like other rural areas this close to urban sprawl, land prices have been going up from about $3000 - $4000 per acre to nearly $10,000 per acre for parcels of 10 - 50 acres. I have been looking for 100 acres to keep neighbors and roof tops out of my views ocmpletely, and have looked at a couple nearby ranches. These sellers are waiting for that $$$ California Money $$$ to buy their place so they can cash out too. They will be waiting for a long time. I am moving my portfolio investments to cash equivalents so that in two years when cash is again king, I can pick up distressed properties for much less. I did this in 1990 in Austin, buying a home in an upscale neighborhood for $132,000 and selling it for enough to buy this ranch land, build a custom house, put in roads, a deep well, barns, and cabin with no mortgage.
Yee Haw !; July 29, 2006 9:44 PM
Anonymous said...: I took out my equity when I sold in Tampa. Moved to a more central location in northern Louisiana. I bought a really nice house in a really nice neighborhood. It has 900 more sqft than the original and cost $120K less than my old Tampa house sold for. I wanted it and so took a small loan for $35K to cover what I couldn't on the price. It is beautiful! No more hurricanes, either.; July 30, 2006 1:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Look, we can all accelerate the coming real estate crash, and we all know the sooner the better because it's already gotten so out of hand already, and here's how:

Despite our amazement about it, there are still prospective homebuyers out there still looking to buy a home, who are unaware that they are being led to financial slaughter, and it's these people who are postponing the inevitable, so here's what we do:

Post links to this housing bubble site and a dozen others "ONLY" where prospective homebuyers are looking because that's the only way they'll find out. Post all over Craigslist and every other real estate listing site you can get into and use tinyurl.com links so they won't know where they are being referred to. Explanations to those links should be preceded by caveat emptor warnings like "Don't buy any real estate until you've read what's happening to the real estate market" or "Here's why you'll be able to buy real estate for 25% to 60% less in the next 12-36 months".

The few idiot buyers still out there (I know they deserve it, but let's get this over with already) will disappear and then we'll have a pricing freefall, initiated by lender REOs.

I've been told lately by many people how surprised they are at how many REOs they are seeing or how many neighbors they now know are in trouble for having bought in the last 3 years and who HELOC'd on top of an exotic or no down payment loan.

People, this giant boulder of a coming crash is just teetering on the edge of a cliff. If we all join together and give it a big push, we can make it happen sooner and get our economy back on track - What do you say? Heave Hoooooo!; July 30, 2006 6:31 PM
Anonymous said...: Condos in Phoenix? LOL

They have enough desert to build 5 LA's and people by condos? LOL

Lots of Mexican slaves in Phoenix last timt one gave me a BJ for a fiver...or maybe it was a realtor; July 30, 2006 7:00 PM
Anonymous said...: The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.
Proverbs 22:7

Plan: Estimate Cost.
Suppose one of you want to build a tower. Will he not first sit down and estimate the cost to see if he has enough money to complete it? For if he lays the foundation and is not able to finish it, everyone who sees it will ridicule him, saying, This fellow begun to build and was not able to finish. - Luke 14:28-30

A fool and his money are soon parted. - Proverbs

The plans of the diligent leads to profit as surely as haste leads to poverty.
Proverbs 21:5

Do not boast about tomorrow, for you do not know what a day may bring forth. Proverbs 27:1

Do not be overawed when a man grows rich, when the splendor of his house increases; for he will take nothing with him when he dies, his splendor will not descend with him. Though while he lived he counted himself blessed - and men praise you when you prosper - he will join the generations of his fathers, who will never see the light of life. A man who has riches without understanding is like a beast that perish. - Psalms 49:16-20

Antidote for covetousness: “Turn my heart toward your statues and not toward selfish gains.” - Psalms 119:36

Watch out! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; a man’s life does not consist in the abundance of his possessions. - Luke 12:15

Diversify: Cast your bread upon the waters, for after many days you will find it again. Give portions to seven, yes to eight, for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. - Ecclesiastes 11:1-2

Dishonest money dwindles away, but he who gathers money little by little makes it grow. - Proverbs 13:11

He who oppresses the poor to increase his wealth and he who gives gifts to the rich - both come to poverty. - Proverbs 22:16; July 30, 2006 11:42 PM
Anonymous said...: The idea is to induce "rational expectations" of controlled inflation, and you do that by whacking the market in the face until it understands.

I had coffee (and milk) coming out my nose when I read this.

Most of us don't really understand the magical machinations of the Fed. You speak with a sense of authority, so I suspect you may be right. Basically the Fed's primary job is to control inflation, not prevent recessions or preserve real estate values.

But I will tell you one thing: I'm losing confidence in the reported inflation numbers. They say "but actual inflation was a paultry 3.3% on the 'core' CPI, anualized."

What does that mean to me? Hey I'm not Fed chairman banker, but I see health care costs, gas costs, food, and don't let me forget, real estate costs rising very rapidly. I look on the news and the pundits are telling me inflation is low. But me, as a consumer, I can tell you that my $1 doesn't go as far as it used to, even only a couple of years ago.

So I have to wonder, is the inflation monster out of its cage, ravaging the livestock and villagers, and generally just running amok? Maybe it just hasn't had time to get around to Main Street. It seems so. So I wonder if all the things the Fed does count for "core" inflation are simply lagging so many other things. For example, rents seem to be rising slowly. But there is tremendous pressure on rents to catch up with real estate assets because of the large payments on leveraged RE assets coming due. But as the rents rise, the Fed has to step in to maintain "rational expectations of controlled inflation".

Result? Real estate get a$$pounded, even worse than it already is.

I'm wondering if we are experiencing such "delayed" inflation.; July 31, 2006 3:24 AM
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Have a great week!; July 31, 2006 4:16 AM
Anonymous said...: The massive speculatory bubble and its stupid troll, the Real Estate bubble are near end!!!!

yes sir, the end is about cometh!!!!! For the FIRST time in American history, nominal housing prices are going to drop.

I think sacred October is when the dogs come home to roost. A mass finanical panic will grip the world as the "American Flu" slams markets worldwide.

A dangerous time for sure; July 31, 2006 5:46 AM
Anonymous said...: check out this video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdq8z2Ujqfw&search=real%20estate%20bubble; July 31, 2006 6:33 AM
Anonymous said...: there are some pretty dodgy people on this blog. serious woman haters. anti-social types. Can I just say, 39 yrs old, married to a sweet wonderful woman, one 2 yr old kid, that there are happy families out there, and though I occasionally think a bachelor's life might have its excitments, I much prefer having an inner circle of people I love to spend my life with... a lot of you bastards are so jaded and cynical that you think you've found the answer in money and whores -- you'll die bitter and lonely. I feel sorry for you, and I mean that. Maybe you can still turn it around, but you're going to have to find the right woman, one that believes deep down that spending money won't make her happy, and try opening yourselves up to a real relationship. Good luck to you.; July 31, 2006 6:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Screw the statistics: inflation really is getting out of control. Everybody is mentioning it, and even I notice it. It's much more than just gas prices.

This phenomenon is distinctly different from the 90's boom, nobody really said that. Occasionally some food prices fluctuated with random weather events.

So what's so different from the 90's? We have a Fed that has similar policies, and now wages are increasing ever less.

Answer's simple: war.

War is inflationary, always has been, always will be.; July 31, 2006 6:56 AM
Anonymous said...: "But I will tell you one thing: I'm losing confidence in the reported inflation numbers. They say "but actual inflation was a paultry 3.3% on the 'core' CPI, anualized.

What does that mean to me? Hey I'm not Fed chairman banker, but I see health care costs, gas costs, food, and don't let me forget, real estate costs rising very rapidly. I look on the news and the pundits are telling me inflation is low. But me, as a consumer, I can tell you that my $1 doesn't go as far as it used to, even only a couple of years ago."

So I have to wonder, is the inflation monster out of its cage, ravaging the livestock and villagers, and generally just running amok?"

I think you've hit the nail on the head. IMHO, we've been in a period of 8-10% inflation for the last few years and the Fed has been acting like the Bush Administration's fabricated CPI score is real and we don't have humongous twin deficits. If the Fed wants to curb the global bust that I think is VERY NEAR, it MUST keep raising interest rates until REAL inflation is under control and we don't slide into hyperinflation and then deflation. Yes, the resulting recession will be painful, but our country cannot afford our currency (and economy) being destroyed, a la Argentina.; July 31, 2006 5:36 PM
Jip said...: Spending Less?; July 31, 2006 6:54 PM
Anonymous said...: "If she doesn't want to sign a pre-nup that's fine"

What I'm trying to say is that most (80%+) won't sign it and that's why men cave in and become pussywhipped.

Remember, us 'single4life' types are a despised minority among ball 'n chain men and their control freak wives.

I'm helping my father setup a trust for his estate that me and my brother will have when he's gone. I included a clause that requiers a Pre-Nup or no money...

Best part is that I can blame it on Dad and when the dumb *unt pisses and moans about it I'll know she's a money hungry control freak...

Honey... Thanks for this wonderful insite into your personality... Now get the F out and don't let the door hit you in the ass...; July 31, 2006 8:16 PM
Anonymous said...: If this comes to the USA there may still be a little life in the housing bubble.

http://tinyurl.com/kjbl6; July 31, 2006 11:48 PM
Anonymous said...: C'mon Keith,

We need more entries on the mideast conflagration!; August 01, 2006 2:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Wow. I've never seen a page full of such idiotic crap. There's not only some of the most poorly reasoned arguments both for and against the housing bubble I've ever read, but the debate about whether singles or married people were more miserable actually made me sort of long for armageddon. You all have accomplished something special here.; August 01, 2006 6:41 AM
"Hunter" said...: Saw it the other day and just found the link. California foreclosures up 104.4% annually.
http://www.dailynews.com/search/ci_4099727

I am a financial advisor and do loans on the side and just turned away a $5k commission because I told the client not to buy in this market. The client low balled the house and walked away. Some day I hope I will be rewarded for this... man it is tough to do that when you have bills to pay.; August 01, 2006 6:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith, those ads are not very nice. I was finally going to cave it and link to your site, but now I would rather be locked in the closet and forced to chew tin foil for the rest of my life.; August 01, 2006 1:35 PM
Markus Arelius said...: What will a real estate market bubble crash (i.e. no soft landing) mean for property taxes and area school systems that are funded by them? I am particularly interested to know how this might play out in OC, California.; August 01, 2006 1:50 PM
Anonymous said...: "Markus Arelius said...
What will a real estate market bubble crash (i.e. no soft landing) mean for property taxes and area school systems that are funded by them? I am particularly interested to know how this might play out in OC, California."

It all depends. Here in PA there is a millage limit of 25 mills (they topped that out years ago in most places). Need more money, just re-assess. Jack up the new assessed value to match the amount of the most assuredly deserved raises and benefit increases that you (state, county, school board, etc.) want to reward yourself with. The thinking at all levels is: Real estate tanking, taxpayers already losing their homes! No Problem! Just raise assessments again.
After all, why should we suffer!
In a state that has a real lock down on assessment increases like CA perhaps the loss of revenue will be balanced out by the amount of population (with kids) that moves out when the bank forecloses? Less people on the roads, less people to provide services to for, less kids in school, that should drop down the budgets, ......right,......RIGHT???; August 01, 2006 2:35 PM
Anonymous said...: "Google Alerts" e-mailed me an interesting article this a.m.

http://tinyurl.com/pto3s

Its was all the ECONOMISTS fault that we got into this mess. Now its their fault that its ending badly. When all else fails, shoot the messenger.; August 01, 2006 2:42 PM
Markus Arelius said...: While I agree that the "I told you so's" and sarcastic applause for the pending housing bubble crash is highly entertaining to read, as a renter, I just started to slow down my clapping. Once the home owning exodus begins, won't this mean renting becomes more attractive and lead to substantial increases in monthly rents? Doesn't this then have an effect of closing the gap between the cost of renting vs. owning a home? If yes to the last question, I'm wondering whether prices will have corrected enough (in OC, Calif.) to make owning a house even remotely affordable.; August 01, 2006 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: I am a financial advisor and do loans on the side and just turned away a $5k commission because I told the client not to buy in this market. The client low balled the house and walked away. Some day I hope I will be rewarded for this... man it is tough to do that when you have bills to pay.

IMHO, good karma will come your way because you have chosen the path of compassion.; August 01, 2006 5:58 PM
Anonymous said...: From time to time a good bubble bursting profit point floats thru this blog. A while back someone asked how they could "short" the city of Las Vegas. Somebody suggested shorting STN(station casinos), I added it to my watch list just for fun. Now I wish I had shorted, just hit a 52 week low and looks like the crater will get deeper. For all the ranting there is still some fresh info at HP.; August 01, 2006 7:09 PM
Anonymous said...: LOL! Displaced Hesbollah. LOL!
Not buying the bubble is nothing more than your average troll that has no life. He has nothing better to do than take opposite stances of what really is going on. That and spank the monky to Oprah. Go back to your friggin cave you hobbit.; August 01, 2006 8:41 PM
Anonymous said...: ...... spank the monky to Oprah. ROTFLMAO; August 01, 2006 9:59 PM
Markus Arelius said...: A monumental retard?
The inventory keeps going up (in OC) and Bernanke is going to raise rates again this week. Then summer ends, school starts and home sales take a September nose dive. Then it's Christmas and families wondering how their going to buy Johnnie the Thomas the Train Sodor Island Set and Susie her "OC Barbie" playhouse. Damn it, is there any good news on the horizon?; August 01, 2006 10:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Yeah renters, don't worry too much about increasing rents.

This housing bubble created so many "investors" (last year's bubble zones saw some 25-35% of purchases by second home owners) that there'll be enough supply of rental units (to re-coup some of the losses) to keep a bit of a downward pressure on rents so there won't be mass of ARM evictees looking to rent.

It'll be investors renting out more places that they can't quickly flip with fewer takers. Then places getting foreclosed on will be bought by new investors that'll then have to be rented out to get any sort of income. All and all, the rent hikes will be gradual and anyone with good standing (pay on time, minimal damage to unit) with a real estate management company or individual landlord won't see much of a hike as a retention incentive (perhaps 2 percent at most, mine was zero for the past two years and will be this coming renewal period).; August 01, 2006 10:46 PM
Anonymous said...: I had a bunch of rental properties during the last downturn (89-94) and rents decreased! I dropped the rents on existing long-term tenants to retain them.

Any landlord who thinks rents will rise to save their rental investment is dreaming. You have to have enough of a margin of safety to survive the bad times - just like in any business.; August 02, 2006 4:22 AM
Anonymous said...: Has anyone noticed that the inventory in the Washington, DC area peaked at 12,469 on 6/21/06 and has been on the way down since then? Even though this is a lot in relative terms, inventory is still tight compared to cities like Minneapolis or Cleveland with more inventory and much smaller populations. Has the the real estate bust fizzled out?; August 02, 2006 11:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Hi there Blogger, a real useful blog.Keep with the good work.
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I send you warm regards and wishes of continued success.; August 02, 2006 11:36 AM
Anonymous said...: there are some pretty dodgy people on this blog. serious woman haters. anti-social types. Can I just say, 39 yrs old, married to a sweet wonderful woman, one 2 yr old kid, that there are happy families out there, and though I occasionally think a bachelor's life might have its excitments, I much prefer having an inner circle of people I love to spend my life with... a lot of you bastards are so jaded and cynical that you think you've found the answer in money and whores -- you'll die bitter and lonely. I feel sorry for you, and I mean that. Maybe you can still turn it around, but you're going to have to find the right woman, one that believes deep down that spending money won't make her happy, and try opening yourselves up to a real relationship. Good luck to you.

You sound like a lucky man who has found a keeper. I wish you the best of luck with your future and family.

I agree with many of the other guys who have been writing on this thread about the money grubbing habits of women. My best friend has lost over $500,000 to a stay-at-home ex wife who used trips to the park with the kids to get stoned and have affairs with 19-20y/o boys. It was hard to see the anguish on his face because he was doing everything right but it wasn't "exciting" enough for her.

I cannot tell you the number of girls I have dated who have started talking kids, marriage, etc way too soon. One girl even joked about getting pregnant. Personally I do not find that to be a laughing matter at all. I was dating a pretty All-American girl who kept wanting to move in. She started acting strange and I stopped trusting her, then one night she got me worked up after I had fallen asleep and low and behold, we did something without using protection (though we normally did) but she was on the pill, right? right? wrong. Somehow it just didn't work and I got the dreaded phone call a couple weeks later of a girl screaming into the phone saying that I was going to be a dad, she was moving in and we were getting married, else she was going to take me for every penny I had. And I had to buy her a SUV. Talk about from love to hell in a short amount of time. My whole world was shattered and worst part was I was listening to my messages on speakerphone while out with some friends. I hit that button so fast, and they either didn't hear it or something, and no one has ever brought it up again. Thankfully I bided my time stringing her alone and she had a miscarriage within a month, at which time I told her in straight words to "GET THE F**K OUT".

Lessons learned, never trust a woman who says she is on the pill, never act in the passion of the moment, and be very careful. I am one of the lucky ones, I have friends who went through the same thing with much different outcomes. One has a wife is out cheating on him and he can't do anything about it lest he pay $800 a month in child support. When she was his g/f she was medically unable to get pregnant.... right......

Now I've been talking with highly educated, beautiful foreign women. It's completely different - instead of the usual "what can you do for me" attitude it's a "thank you for being a nice guy" attitude. what a change it makes.; August 02, 2006 4:14 PM
Anonymous said...: oh, and to add to above, the American girl was always bitching and moaning about being "fu*ked and chucked" repeatedly in high school and college. Like that is my fault......; August 02, 2006 4:16 PM
Anonymous said...: I know exactly what you would have gone through anon, my "HELL" lasted for 20 years. You were very lucky that girl miscarried!; August 02, 2006 4:41 PM