I believe the 200,000 number is understated by 1 Million or more - as the ripple will be huge. Realtors, mortgage bankers, construction workers, etc are obvious. But add in Home Depot workers, Lexus dealers, beauty salon workers (someone had to primp the realtors) - and the number is big. Really big. And worldwide.
Declines in home-building could cause as many as 200,000 construction workers to lose their jobs, as well as cause layoffs of real estate agents and mortgage brokers.
Over the past three years, the Anderson team, one of the nation's most respected group of regional economists, has issued repeated warnings about potential weaknesses in the housing market.
“The trend is clear,” Thornberg said. “The only debate now is how hard a landing there will be and what it will mean for the general economy.”
Nationwide, the UCLA economists predict that new housing starts will decline to 175 million units per quarter by the end of 2007, a 25 percent decline from the peak last fall.
“Make no mistake,” economist David Shulman said. “This is a soft landing. Typically, peak-to-trough declines amount to 50 percent.”
March 30, 2006
UCLA Report: More than 200,000 housing jobs to be lost in California alone
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Actually, unfortunately, hispanics will be over-represented as a class in jobs lost as they are over-represented as a class in construction jobs.
Good observation. I'm glad to see you're reasoned, thinking for yourself and not a pawn.
Construction always has been and always will be a feast or famine, expanding then contracting, business. The ratio of skilled to unskilled labor is about 1:10. During a contraction, the skilled remain while the unskilled go back to doing what the did before their construction jobs; waiting tables, folding burritos, stealing cars, etc.
Let us not forget the UCLA/Anderson has been wrong in 5 of the last 5 years. 200,000 is fantasy low. I'm already seeing the "job corners" getting crowded. The problem is the construction worker market will eat itself alive. Desperate young men working off the books and taking out the higher priced experienced workers. Vicious cycle spirals down. You can't just get rid of the number of workers in excess, you scare off another equal amount.
"Nationwide, the UCLA economists predict that new housing starts will decline to 175 million units per quarter by the end of 2007, a 25 percent decline from the peak last fall"
175 million? wow there must be a bubble. It must mean 1.75 million.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
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