Hey, buy one of those Toll McMansions that have depreciated 5.9% already? A little pissed to see Toll discounting the model you just bought?
Well, go F yourself, says Bob Toll. His profit margins have been so high because there's been a steady stream of suckers (oops, I mean buyers) that hey, if he has to shave a few points off his margin to lower prices, no worries, he's still printing money.
You, the Toll customer on the other hand? You're gonna be heading towards Chapter 11 real soon. But hey, your fault in the end for buying his product at the way-over-inflated price.
Oh, meanwhile, Bob and team have cashed out (as in taken from his shareholders) over $600,000,000 in Toll stock and hey, guess what, the did it right before their shares trainwrecked. Think he may have seen some ugly numbers and wanted to get out before his shareholders did (good god where is the SEC?)
Anyone want to file a complaint with the SEC on Bob's insider selling, stock manipulation and disinformation, including today's comments? Go right on over here. Anyone still want to buy a Toll Brothers house I'd recommend this site
Toll Brothers CEO Tells AP That Predictions of Doom and Gloom in Housing Market Are Overblown
Predictions of doom and gloom in the housing market are overblown and there is still room for real estate to grow as long as mortgage rates stay near historical lows, according the head of Toll Brothers, the nation's largest luxury homebuilder.
Toll, who has been in the real estate business for four decades, agrees with industry pundits who predict a "soft landing" ahead for housing.
He bases his belief on the mixed results he's seeing at his communities -- he can still raise prices at certain properties in several markets. In past housing downturns, he said, pricing power generally was weak across the board.
"I truly believe it's going to be soft. In selected markets, for selected locations ... you still have pricing power," he said. "If this is a hard time, I'll take it. I'll keep it."
March 17, 2006
Toll Brothers CEO Sees Real Estate Growth (and his huge bank balance)
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7 comments:
Toll is doing well today, actually up almost 4%. Good formation on the chart too.
HOV is doing jaw-droppingly well too. It gapped up for the second day in a row and was up nearly 5% at one point. UFB!
PMI is up a percent today from its all-time triple-top high of $45.00 as well. It's creeping back up there again on no volume.
I'm starting to wonder if this is some kind of grand finale, blow-off, last hurrah short-squeeze before the undeniable, un-spinable, no-contradiction, in print reality of the failed spring selling season finally sends these stocks back to 1998 levels.
Yeah, the stop-loss shorts drive buying from little momentum. It's a Catch-22. Those traders have to cover their short interest at some point.
This reduces the buy to open put prices in the short term. It could be advantageous if you have a limit order on those options.
WLS CEO got his stock PRICE UP !!!
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060317:MTFH69400_2006-03-17_23-03-13_N17287940&symbol=WLS.N&rpc=44
William Lyon Homes chief offers to buy company
Fri Mar 17, 2006 6:02 PM ET
WLS.N (William Lyon Homes Inc)
Last: $99.00
Change: +23.30
Up/Down: +30.78%
Keith I know how pissed off you were about the phony upgrade of the homebuilders on Jan 6 or so; this WLS stuff is at least two orders of magnitude worse.
I haven't seen pure market manipulation so blatant since Chairman Gasoline with no prior implication whatsoever dropped the Fed Funds rate by 0.5% in the middle of trading on the day of option expiration way back in 1998 or so.
If this guy is so hot to buy the stock back, just shaddap and quietly buy it! WTF is this 30% premium in a sector that is without question gonna be valued 20% within a year?
I'LL TELL YOU WTF IS GOING ON!
Any or all of the following possibilities:
1) Blow out EVERY SINGLE PUT OPTION AND SHORT POSITION IN EXISTENCE for March
2) Go private before they have to announce POST-ARMAGEDDON second-quarter earnings after the worst spring selling season since the Great Depression
3) Reduce the number of shares outstanding so that EPS for the first quarter doesn't look as bad as it might.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE THAT HE THINKS WLS IS FUNDAMENTALLY WORTH 93 DOLLARS A SHARE NOW OR WILL BE WORTH 93 DOLLARS A SHARE ANY TIME IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS!
Yep.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TOL
Nothing too scientific about that!
Ka-ching! Ka-ching!!
This is the doom and gloom I see...or it is an opportunity if I am correct. In any event, I am deeply worried.
Gold will go way up, maybe to $1,500 an ounce or higher because the dollar will fall for years. The dollar will keep falling and here is why:
The U.S. cannot sustain 800 bilion a year trade deficits. We cannot export our way out of this mess. The only answer is a sharply lower dollar to drive manufactruing home and to lower the trade deficit. The dollar has much farther to fall. What you are seeing is a long term effort (it will take 20 years) to get the trade deficit back under 1% of GDP. We are currently running a trade imbalance of nearly 6% of GDP. No nation can do this. The IMF would be stepping in to help any nation if its trade imbalance went to 6% of GDP becuase its currency would collapse! The U.S. is different, but still, we cannot sustain a trade deficit of this magnitude. People must understand that when we buy an item from say China, we pay in dollars. The Chinese company we just bought from them goes to an Exchange Bank in China and converts those dollars to Yuan. The Chinese banking system (Chinese Government) is now sitting on those dollars. They can either 1, buy oil, 2, buy Treasuries, 3. buy U.S goods, 4. buy U.S. Corporations, 5. other. Over time if we (the U.S. ) continue to run a trade deficit we could simply be completely bought and controlled by foreigners. Warren Buffet has explained the situation as being like a rich Texas farmer who loses a small piece of his land year after year and never notices for a while. When he then notices, tragedy sets in because he no longer controls his land. So in sum, we need to get the trade deficit way down. This is why the Fed has abandoned the dollar. It wil be going down for the next 20 years. That is how long it is going to take to correct this imbalance mess. Bottom line: Lower, much lower dollar will equal higher inflation and higher GOLD prices. Much higher!
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