January 10, 2006

Soros added to housing bubble believer list


Wanna bet against Buffet and Soros? Go ahead. Stupider things have been done. Maybe.

Soros: U.S. recession may occur in '07

Billionaire investor George Soros said Monday the Federal Reserve might overshoot in its bid to tighten monetary policy, deflating housing prices and tipping the economy into recession in 2007.

A collapse in U.S. housing prices could be associated with a dollar decline, scuppering the Fed's attempt to engineer a "soft-landing" for the economy, Soros told an audience at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

"If housing continues to cool while rates are slowing then it could turn into a hard landing," Soros said. "That's why I expect a recession to happen in 2007, not 2006."

11 comments:

Renter_Panic said...

In 2000: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2001!!!"

In 2001: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2002!!!"

In 2002: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2003!!!"

In 2003: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2004!!!"

In 2004: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2005!!!"

In 2005: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2006!!!"

In 2006: "Watch for Housing Bubble in 2007!!!"

Anonymous said...

Watch for a Nasdaq Bubble in 1997!

Watch for a Nasdaq Bubble in 1998!

Watch for a Nasdaq Bubble in 1999!

Watch for a Nasdaq Bubble in 2000!

Hey, SUNW is selling at 50/share - This is a buying opportunity!

Hey, Hey, SUNW is selling at 30/share This is a buying opportunity!

Hey, SUNW is selling at 10/share This is a buying opportunity!

Hey, SUNW is selling at 5/share This is a buying opportunity!

OK... maybe *now* this is a buying opportunity.

Anonymous said...

Dow 11,000

Anonymous said...

Dow ain't NAQDAQ, which is still getting killed.

Anonymous said...

CA affordability 15% and less...

Renter_Panic said...

Yearly Median Housing Prices have not gone down since 1968, and have only gone down ONCE (-4%) in the last 63 years........

I'll take my chances......

Y'all keep on renting and paying my mortgage on my rental properties.....you'll have my mortgages paid off in three years.

Anonymous said...

U.S. stocks extended their gains, pushing the Nasdaq index above 2,300 for the first time since May 2001.

AmazingRuss said...

"Y'all keep on renting and paying my mortgage on my rental properties.....you'll have my mortgages paid off in three years."

Hehe...three years rent to pay off your house....you should change your nick to Captain Mathematic.

The house I rent appraises at 800k. I rent it for $1100/mo. Property tax alone is almost $700/mo. I'll let you calculate the interest expense on that kind of cash. For you to even break even, appreciation has to beat your interest rate by a fair amount. How long do you see that continuing?

If you owned those houses before this all started, you're rockin. If you bought in last couple years, you can probably ride it out. If you bought recently, you're toast.

Now get over here to 'your' house and fix the holes I kicked in the walls and the spillover from my meth lab :D

Anonymous said...

in response to renter_panic:

there have been plenty of local price declines. Check out...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/19/real_estate/buying_selling/price_declines/index.htm

almost all of these markets did eventually recover, like the DOW seems to be. Nobody is expecting a nasdaq-type meltdown.

If you can 1) afford a property, and 2) would be happy living there long term, then go ahead and buy. Long term prospects are *almost* always good. That said, I would advise against stretching yourself to the max on an interest-only arm to buy a property that you will not meet your long-term needs.

renter_panic - here's the real question: would you encourage people to spend above 50% of their income on an interest-only arm? That's the only way most people in SF can get into the housing market. Most people can't do the 20% down, 30-year fixed, staying within 33% of income.

Dogcrap Green said...

Housing Panic,

I may have been a bit hard on you.

Can I make it up to you by loaning you $10 bucks to get by these terrible times?

keith said...

note to readers - this blog is a housing bubble blog.

day trading stock speculators should look for a blog on that

after they're done trying to get out of their investment properties