January 11, 2006

Help a HP reader - offer your free advice - should he buy or bolt?


Here's an email I received from a HP reader from Arizona. He wanted me to post this to the site to get HP readers' feedback and advice

Poor guy. It must be gut-wrenching right now to sign your name to that mortgage, no matter what the situation.

Step up HP readers - give the poor guy your best, serious advice.

To HousingPanic:

I have been following your blog for sometime and am addicted to it.

I am supposed to be closing on a home in Mesa, Az on Feb 6th for 305,000. It is a new build from KB Homes (Summerlin). I bought the house for 279,000 plus 25k in upgrades. It is 1817 sqft and has almost no back yard at all.

Since I am a first time homebuyer the earnst is only $2500. The same house is now going for about 313k but that price has not changed in a couple months.

I am wondering if I should bail on this house.

I cant stop thinking about it and was hoping that you can provide me with some advice. I can still bail on it and the worse case is that I will lose $2500 right now...and I may even be able to get that back. Any help is greatly appreciated.

Here is the link to the home:
http://www.kbhome.com/Community~CommID~00875455.aspx

Thank you in Advance!

Ajay

58 comments:

000000000000000000000000000000000000 said...

If I give advice I can’t help but be wrong, if I share experience I can’t help but be right.

Here is my experience...

I was in your position in 1990 as Real Estate was peaking in the California high desert. I knew in my gut that it was a bad decision but went through with the purchase anyway. I lost 50% of the homes gross value in 1 year. I had to sell, partly because my business would not pay the bills and partly because I could WALK AWAY and buy my house back at the NEW PRICE.

AmazingRuss said...

Let me start by saying I'm a software engineer, not a realtor or financial person, so my advice may well be worth the nothing you are paying for it. In addition, That said...

I see a bunch of developments here on so-cal that have houses just like that one in the picture...all jammed up about 8 feet apart. They went pretty well for a while, but the latest developments have been about half unoccupied for the last two months. They are priced at about $460k...remember, this is a nice part of coastal California...not the desert.

On the 'what would I pay for it' scale, I'd give maybe $150k for one of those in Arizona....maybe 210k for one here. Then, I tend not to buy a lot of stuff because other can and do pay what I won't.

If I were in your position, I would first try to get the builder to come down on the price, by at least the 25k in upgrades. Barring that, I'd let the $2500 go, and hold out for the next two years to see what happens when this 1.5trillion dollars in adjustable rate loans start adjusting.

It seems to me that prices could easily drop 20-30%. Even if they only drop 1%, you'd lose $3000 by keeping the house.

Robert Coté said...

Tough question. My gut says run away but that's unimportant and unhelpful.

I did think of something that can help. Have you considered shopping your spot? If you are contracted for $305 and the same is selling for $313 now you should be able to sell your contract. Get your $2500 and a few thousand more to give up your spot. Best, if you cannot sell your spot for even breakeven then you know the deal is a bad one.

Anonymous said...

Ajay,

In my opinion, you should get out now. You should wait for a few more months and wait for prices to come down.

I am not sure where you work, but commuting on 60 is a nightmare. And living in Mesa is also a nightmare. The crime rate in Mesa in 2005 went up. Also, Mesa city council is proposing property taxes on the March ballot.

In my opinion, you are better off buying an existing home (something that is 5-20 years old) in a neighborhood close to where you work. At peak times (which are 5.00 am to 9.00 am and 3.30 pm to 7.30 pm though some days it seems all 24 hours are peak hours), major surface streets like Baseline, Guadalupe, Lindsay and Val Vista are clogged by commuters tired of 60, 101 and 202, and trying to get to their homes far East like Apache Junction or far South like Queen Creek.

I live in Chandler close to the Mesa border, and I see the traffic everyday. My husband and I purchased an existing home which is very nice for very cheap close to work after looking at houses in Mesa, Gilbert, South Chandler and Queen Creek, and have never once regretted our decision. Everyday, we are thankful that we can get home from work, or go shopping etc. within 15 minutes of our home.

We also have no HOA - so no monthly dues, and our house like a lot of other homes in our area has a big lot size. All neighbors are spread far apart, and most lots are 8000 sq. ft. Ours is 12000 sq. ft. and we never even see our neighbors if we don't want to!

Hope this helps.

inseattle said...

Ajay- get out now. $2,500 is nothing to lose (if you even have to lose it) in comparison to being able to breathe and sleep easy.

It sounds like, if you don't get out, you're going to spend a lot of time panicking over this.

Anonymous said...

Well - here's what I did. A friend of mine a long ago told me how he barely escaped the California crash in the early 1990's. He told me how Phoenix was full of brand new empty homes just sitting in dirt lots. I have new developments going up all around me and lots of inventory coming online soon.

So I decided to bail in Sept. It did not go as I expected...

My house was supposedly 'hot hot hot' S. Chandler (Ocotillo area). It is a 2 year old lakefront luxury 4200 sq ft home on a 1/3 acre across from a park. Has an amazing pool and upgrades. My realtor thought I could sell it for over a million plus easy last summer. By the time we got it on the market, the agent said the market was 'softening' we'd better stay under $1M e.g. $975 - but it sat and sat. The house next door (2800 sq ft) went up for sale for about $825. Should have helped us - right? Well, nada. Two months went by. So we took it down to $899 ... another month went by... no more floods of buyers. By December I got fed up and slashed aggressively and finally found an investor who took it for $850. I probably could have held out for more, but he actually had cash - I had some other contracts, but the other buyers wanted the house on the contingency that THEIR house sold - that does no good in a falling market. That's how you get a cascade.

So what happened next? The house next door (a 2500 sq ft place) ended up slashing and slashing and finaly sold a few weeks ago for less than $650 (agent is embarassed to say what the actual close was).

Maybe you will be luckier in Mesa but I never imagined the market would be this vicious this quickly. The basic problem is liquidity - even a great house now has serious competition (I was competing with non-lakefront customs) and buyers are hard to find, which it like trying to sell a penny stock in a thin market. There is a huge spread between the bid and ask. A luxury home takes time to sell - and meanwhile the market is dropping.

Given the speed at which my house value crashed (almost 20% already ?) I would expect a rebound - but I'm not seeing it yet.

Anyways, I've taken my cash and bought a beautiful custom home in the midwest for peanuts - and that is where I will ride this out.

inseattle said...

Ajay-

I looked at the house and it's very pretty. Now, here's the thing:

Can you easily afford this house?

Is this house something that you really love and want to live in forever?

Is it your dream neighborhood?, etc. etc.

If you can answer yes to all of those questions then it won't matter when the price goes down- right? RE always goes up and down.

Right now the consensus seems to be that it has nowhere to go but down.

But if you love the place and want to stay there and can EASILY afford it, then go ahead and buy it.

If not, bail.

Anonymous said...

ajay:

bachche bhag ja jaldi...
marne se bach jaiga..

Anonymous said...

Clearly you are a first-time buyer - you need to realize that $2500 is NOTHING in the housing world - not compared to 15 THOUSAND DOLLARS in sales commisions you will have to pony up to your agent when you sell - heck your house has to appreciate 5% after you close just to BREAK EVEN. But what if housing actually drops? THEN the fun begins. Now the $15K is the LEAST of your problems. Remember, your mortgage company has a right to track your equity and if they sense you are underwater, you may have to fund the difference or be in violation of the loan terms.

In a nutshell, if you cannot afford to walk away from $2500, then how are you supposed to afford the REAL money you might have to cough up?

Remember, in a down market, tract homes get SLAUGHTERED. Why? Because they are a dime a dozen. I found that out a few years ago myself - buyers will be able to take your price down on ANY excuse (lot size, amenities, location etc). Your house has to be perfect, which few are.

Anonymous said...

After telling us how much you paid and the number of sqft, your only comment about the house was "no back yard". You don't need to ask us...you've already decided.

Don't Buy

Anonymous said...

The thought of buying into a boring KB Home subdivision is enough to make me run. The pictures look great, but every house looks great when there are no others around. Stating that you will have no backyard and probably little side yards, I'll run like hell to the hills.

fishtaco said...

If you are not using some sort of exotic financing and are prepared to happily live in the home for +20 years, then go for it.

keith said...

Ajay

I wanted the HP readers to chime in first. You know my take:

1) boring stucco suburbia subdivisions in the far flung reaches of phoenix will be worthless 10 years from now. location, location, location

2) you'd be buying post-peak. Every month you'd be in the house for the next 5 years you'd lose equity, in addition to overpaying on monthly expenses vs. renting

3) what would your monthly ownership expense be? what would the house rent for? what's the difference? If the answer is negative - do not buy. The PE in Phoenix is all out of whack, and you can rent a house for 40% of what ownership costs would be

4) If you intend to stay in the house for 20 years, if you have 20% to put down, if you could lose 50% of your purchase price and be ok - then consider. If not, then flee

5) worst case ask the builder to lower their price and see what they say. IF they say no, tell them you're walking away, and then see what they say

Let us know what you do and why

Best

Keith

keith said...

here's maricopa (phoenix) listings (ugliest trend in the USA)

Tracking Phoenix/Maricopa & Pinal Counties

Population 2005: 3.8 million
Listing per population ratio 7/20: 1:353
Listing per population ratio 11/10: 1:150

6/30: xxxxx____6/05 sold: 11,545__6/04 sold: 11,665
7/20: 10,748
7/30: 11,656___7/05 sold: 10,200__7/04 sold: 8,525
8/10: 13,099
8/20: 14,321
8/30: 15,042___8/05 sold: 10,700__8/04 sold: 11,275
9/10: 16,716
9/20: 17,516
9/30: 18,799___9/05 sold: 9,815___9/04 sold: 7,780
10/10: 20,073
10/20: 21,806
10/30: 23,770__10/05 sold: 8,420__10/04 sold: 8,755
11/10: 25,387
11/20: 26,616
11/30: 26,811__11/05 sold: 7,195__11/04 sold: 9,525
12/10: 27,649
12/20: 27,580
12/30: 27,455
1/2: 26,715
1/4: 27,125
1/6: 28,224
1/10: 28,790

keith said...

Here's Phoenix asking price trend - note the meltdown at the higher levels, but not bad at the lower. To be expected during first leg of bubble burst

Phoenix, Arizona
Including Anthem, Avondale, Black Canyon City, Cave Creek, Chandler, Congress, Desert Hills, Glendale, Guadalupe, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Luke Afb, New River, Paradise Valley, Peoria, Rock Springs, Sacaton, Scottsdale, Sun City, Tempe, Tolleson
Trend 01/07/2006 1 month 2 month 3 month 4 month
Median Price $352,000 -0.8% -2.2% -6.1% -7.4%
Inventory 14,271 +1.9% +11.4% +40.3% +71.5%

Historical Data
Date Inventory 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
01/07/2006 14,271 $265,000 $352,000 $554,990
01/01/2006 13,854 $265,000 $355,000 $559,900
12/28/2005 13,880 $265,000 $355,000 $560,000
12/21/2005 14,092 $265,000 $353,900 $559,000
12/14/2005 14,077 $265,000 $350,000 $550,000
12/07/2005 14,011 $265,000 $354,900 $559,900
12/01/2005 13,832 $265,000 $355,000 $559,900
11/28/2005 13,884 $265,000 $355,000 $560,000
11/21/2005 13,782 $265,000 $355,000 $559,900
11/14/2005 13,295 $267,000 $359,000 $569,000
11/07/2005 12,813 $269,000 $359,900 $574,999
11/01/2005 12,275 $268,000 $360,000 $575,000
10/28/2005 11,959 $269,000 $364,500 $579,000
10/21/2005 11,287 $269,000 $368,800 $589,900
10/14/2005 10,845 $269,000 $370,000 $597,000
10/07/2005 10,169 $269,900 $374,990 $599,000
10/01/2005 9,264 $268,900 $369,900 $585,000
09/28/2005 9,118 $269,000 $369,900 $585,950
09/21/2005 9,352 $269,000 $375,000 $599,900
09/14/2005 8,907 $269,900 $379,000 $600,000
09/07/2005 8,319 $269,900 $380,000 $625,000
09/01/2005 8,030 $269,000 $380,000 $630,000
08/28/2005 7,979 $267,000 $379,900 $626,834
08/21/2005 7,769 $265,950 $379,900 $629,999
08/14/2005 7,447 $264,867 $379,900 $629,900

Anonymous said...

Ajay

From your statement, I suspect you have the wrong attitude about this home. You state that the home was purchased for 279,000. It is now going for about 313k, but that price has not changed in a couple months. Your reasoning exemplifies the problem with the Arizona housing market. Everyone is basing their purchasing decisions on the prospects of investment return.

You need to sit down and rethink this purchase in terms of affordability. 279,000 is a lot of money. Is your income sufficient to service a loan for this amount? What percentage of your income will go to mortgage payments? How will this impact your life style? Is your loan a high risk “interest only” loan, or are the payments reasonable? How long do you plan to stay in Arizona? How stable is your employment. If the market goes south, will you lose your job?

Ajay, the answer is simple. If you really love the home and the community, if the home is worth 279,000 to you personally, if you can easily afford the payments and have a secure source of income, and you plan to live in this home for the foreseeable future, then buy it. If, on the other hand, you don’t meet the above criteria, and you are purchasing this home with the hope of making a quick return, then you will definitely get screwed. And you deserve to. The housing market is at a peak right now. This isn’t a good time for investment purchasing.

Everyone likes easy money, and nobody likes to see their assets decrease in value. But a purchase is a personal life style decision. You should use your money to purchase the best quality of life available to you. If you can afford the purchase and you are happy with the price, then nothing else should matter.

Nate said...

It sounds that everyone says bolt, along with

Buffet
Templeton
Soros
and that guy who wrote rich dad poor dad

I think the smart people have spoken, the dumb people and money will get hurt just like the dot com days.

A New Renter said...

I cashed out last year and am renting. Renting sucks (it costs me $20K/year) but a 1% decline in the price of my house would have cost $60K. Prices in the Ventura County area where my house is went up for the first half of 2005 and have been flat to slightly down since then, and I don't feel like I've missed out on significant equity gains. I think most bubble areas are due for at least a 5% decline soon after the speculators and I/O crowd decides to bail (very soon, probably when the spring inventory comes on the market). You should try to sell your option as Robert Cote suggested and get out of the deal ASAP.

Robert Coté said...

...a 1% decline in the price of my house would have cost $60K

Ummmm.....

mtnrunner2 said...

Ajay - I had a friend in Phoenix who was upside down on her mortgage around 1989, when the market was down. She had to wait several years for the market to rebound so she could sell without owing the bank money. After she sold, she was finally able to move for a job transfer.

I built a custom home in San Diego, and am moving TODAY, yeah! We closed escrow on my dream house, after living in it for only 4 months. We sold when we woke up to the reality of having paid at the top of the market.

I know some posters say to buy the house if you can afford and love it. I disagree. Why would anyone buy an asset that is sure to plummet 50% over the next few years?

Rent a couple years, then buy. Wait until prices start creeping back up, so you know the bottom of the market has been hit. This strategy will result in a stronger financial position.

Tract homes do lose their value faster, since there is always another builder who has a BRAND NEW tract home. When you try to sell, you are competing with a brand new house. My house sold fast, within one month (2 offers) in a market where most are sitting for 6 months, because I have 5 acres.

The Thinker said...

Listen, if you come here looking for opinions chances are you already knew what we'd say.

Nobody can predict the future. Will the bubble burst or will the housing train leave the station and you will be forever locked out of home ownership?

You must do some serious thinking and make this determination according to your own assessments because in the end, it wont be us who will suffer if you make the wrong move.

Remember, this is a house, not stock in Webvan (I dont know what that means but it sounds important).

Robert Coté said...

Stocks can only go to zero. Housing can go way below zero.

Go to realtor.com and enter 3br, 2.5ba, 300-325k for Mesa, AZ:

26 properties that will have to sell before yours. Most have spent 000s on landscaping, most only a few years old, etc.

Anonymous said...

KB homes are poorly built. I live in FL and looked at them during construction and would never buy one. The workmanship os very poor. Looks good on the outside but looks cheap and shabby under the covers.

Catherine Wilkinson said...

Ajay,
Disclosure first...I am a realtor (in Prescott) and I grew up in Gilbert and have seen the growth and the outcomes. I ditto almost everything everyone has commented on so far. I'd add that the sub-contractors that have worked on those tract homes are horribly under-qualified to build anything, including backyard forts.
I also know that there will be significant water rationing in the not distant future...it's the invisible issue that everyone doesn't consider or see coming until the prices soar and rationing begins. I KNOW that the east valley will under pressure to start rationing in the next two years.
You probably will be able to rent that very same house soon. Or something very similiar.
Mesa is loaded up with investors/flippers and they are flooding the market with their properties. They are desperate and I wouldn't touch a property in the east valley with a ten foot pole.
btw, mtrunner...I answered your question to me on another thread a couple of days ago! Hope you got it!
Good luck, Ajay...be patient.

taxplanner said...

BAIL OUT!

Look at what your money can buy. The builder has an larger inventory home with who knows what in upgrades for only 10k more.

If you are stuck, get a realtor and make an offer on the inventory house.

Anonymous said...

Let the $2,500 go.

PLease heed the valuable comments by Catherine Wilkerson (who is brave enough to identify herself especially since she is in the business). She is right on in her analysis.

Anonymous said...

GET OUT NOW! AND SAVE YOURSELF FROM MANY SLEEPLESS NIGHTS.

aznycblogger said...

Ajay, I'm not an expert by any means but I would definitely say "trust your gut." I am familiar with the house (from another KB Development) and with KB homes in general. First off, KB homes don't have great long term quality. A friend of mine bought a KB home 3 years ago and it is falling apart. The bathroom medicine cabinet fell off, doors and hinges are all broken, baseboards are "separating" from the walls. The issues are all fixable, but if you're spending that much money, you want to make sure you don't want to put a bunch of money into a few years down the way. Secondly, I'm not sure if you have kids or are planning to, but the public school system in that area is awful. Do you want to pay that much money for a house and then wind up having to send your kid(s) to a private school? What about the crime in the area? Stores, etc.? The homes are acutally "patio homes," so there isn't much of a yard at all. Sometimes you get what you pay for, and if you're thinking long term, maybe you're comfortable spending $300,000 on the house. But, with today's housing market and the "unkown" future of it, do you think the house and area will warrant that price in the upcoming years? Good luck and trust your instinct, it is never wrong!

urbania said...

Ajay,

Looks like a great House..If You really Love it and Its a place to hang Your hat and a place to call Home Then Go for it. However, If your looking at this property as an investment..Do Your Home work..Tract Homes are a dime a Dozen whether Your in Florida,Las Vegas, or countless other states.I have seen many and most of them have the huge clubhouse with the Pool and a slide the kids just Love. I follow Jim Cramer On Mad Money..I heard him say in the past that some of those houses can fall 40 percent...He's not always on the Money. I looked at one of these Model Homes the Michaelanglo I think it was..Something Like 425 In Florida..I could rent the same House for 2000 month..Do the numbers..I decided against living there as all the houses and mailboxes are the same..Hell You can pull into a garage walk up the stairs and get into bed and only find out your in the wrong cookie cutter and its not Your wife.The houses are so close together : Your neighbor sneezes and You say God bless You.

town_mouse said...

This $2500 lesson could be well worth every penny.

I'm guessing this won't be the last house for sale.

best wishes

Anonymous said...

"The houses are so close together : Your neighbor sneezes and You say God bless You."

Each time you fart you blow down a neighbors wall and stink up the whole neighborhood.

those houses are pieces of shit. Tract homes are easily a dime a dozen. Who the hell's going to occupy them in a few years once the boomers retire and move into trailers in Florida or Texas? Sell, sell, sell.

Anonymous said...

Look, its simple. If you can 'afford' it, getting yourself a fixed 30 or 15yr, plan on staying, getting married, raising kids. DO IT. Most woman like 'new' stuff so your wife will be happy. So who cares if the market comes crumbling down. Your buying it to be a HOME and not an ATM.

NOW...if you are thinking short term (flipper mentality) with I/O,NEG.AM, ARM Loan kind of stuff. DTB (Dump that bitch )

keith said...

sleeping in your worst investment, waking up every day and looking at the four walls that you knew when you bought it were overpriced, yet you went ahead, would not be fun

why take the risk? just rent. sleep well. and come back a year from now and see where the market's at

Anonymous said...

as long as he doesnt look at it as an 'Investment' and as a 'home' and can afford it he is fine. We have to accept that some people 'can' afford these prices. Not all are FBs with a crazy loan amking ends meet.

Anonymous said...

one more thing..I thought I was crazy for paying 227k for a 1990 home in Califronia 3 years ago. People told me I was stupid and it was a bad move. I now can say that was the best move I ever did. Even though I doubted my move for a while. the feeling of waking up to my own home and somewhere for my son to run around in, a yard, offset my feelings of doubt. If its a HOME cool, if its an ATM your F-d.

Anonymous said...

KB HOMES are shit. that is why no KB employs live in them. Get out now. buy a used home that has some character and is near civilization. buy at summerlin, and you will waste your life away on I60 traffic, but atleast it is closer to things than Queen Creek.

Anonymous said...

Ajay,

after all of our opinions, we'd like to hear from you. What is your decision now?

Maybe you should thank all those who gave you advice freely and with best intentions, and saved you from possible financial ruin.

000000000000000000000000000000000000 said...

Don't thank me, I didn't give advice!

Ajay said...

Thank you everyone for the great advice. I have decided to walk away from the deal. I initially selected this house as a short term investment property but the value has nowhere else to go but down. I went into the office today and informed them of my decision. They were very understanding and courteous. Im not sure if it is all of KB or not but the sales rep (Doyle) was very easy to work with.

Thanks again!
Ajay

Anonymous said...

Did you lose the $2500?

They were probably understanding because they know what is going on. We'll all be screwed in one way or another.

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