January 10, 2006

Dot Condo Miami Update: 25,000 (flipper) condos hitting the market soon. Maybe Sonny Crockett will leave the boat?

Good interview today on the Miami condo market bubble. 25,000 condos under construction. Amazing. Like GM rolling out the Hummers right when $3 a gallon gas hit. The Miami situation will be amazing to watch unfold over the next 12 months.

Henry Fishkind is the principal of Orlando based-economic consulting firm Fishkind & Associates.

Q: How do you characterize the housing market in Miami?
A: There is a significant condominium bubble in Miami. There are by our account 25,000 condos under construction in Miami-Dade County right now. I believe 18,000 of those are in the city; in downtown alone there are 9,800. It is completely unrealistic to believe that all of those units can be absorbed in the next 12 months.

Q: What are the ripple effects of a housing slowdown in the broader economy?
A: Clearly as housing activity slows, there will be a direct effect on construction. Pricing pressures will improve. It's interesting to note that about one-third of the upsurge in retail (both local and national) sales were directly related to housing. As the housing market slows, we'll see concomitant slowing in construction and in retail sales. I am only projecting mortgage rates to rise to 7 percent. That's enough to cool the markets without crushing them.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Umm... There are 52,000 condos coming on in DC in the next three years. Even Tubbs will be able to buy in about 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/06/AR2006010601981.html

xSparta said...

This must be an omen. I just started watching reruns of Miami Vice................So does this mean...............get out of town?

Realty said...

If a "hot" real estate area cools off, who's going to argue that it does not have larger implications? Boca Raton, Florida, may have some valuable lessons for the real estate industry as a whole. Read more ....

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Real Estate Expert said...

In the year prior to Hurricane Wilma, which ripped through south Florida in October, 2005, 64 homes had new owners at the Boca Country Club. If you're interested in palm beaches real estate, a snapshot of the present may show the Housing Bubble has already popped. Read more ...

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Buyer said...

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