FLASH: Real Estate fund manager expects a 50% fall in home values for inflated coastal markets

Are Arizona and Nevada close enough to the coast Ken?

For anyone thinking of buying a home today in San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Naples, Phoenix, Vegas, Boston, DC, Sacramento and a few others - unless you're getting 50% off of the peak bubble price, don't even think about it.

And nice to see an expert talk about the 800-pound gorilla in the room - that incentives are cuts in value just like price cuts are.

"I expect a 50% decline in the inflated coastal markets.... [When] homebuilders' conference calls talk about the concessions they make in the form of extras at no cost to the buyer, they can be 20% to 30% of the house price. So the full 50%... may come in other forms"

- Kenneth Heebner, manager, CGM Realty Fund, September 2007