HP'ers recognize this complex as one of the most obvious bubble-crazed towers of stupidity in Phoenix. So check out this firesale: Here's a 1000 square foot unit that old in bubble-madness 2006 for $895,000, now (trying to go for) only $395,000. And yet likely STILL overpriced based on its P/E ratio. Good god what fool (or fraudster) paid $895,000 just a few months ago? Someone without a calculator (or a realtor) most likely.
And how about those "21 reasons" again? HP has the one reason that really mattered: It's the P/E stupid. It will always be the P/E stupid. Not the pro athletes. Not the golf. It's the P/E stupid.
Here's what I wrote in October 2007 after doing the math, which might have seemed nuts to realtor-believers at the time:
"Seriously, these hilariously overpriced bubblerific units will see drops of 50% to 70% when all is said and done. Just do the math. It's the P/E stupid. It'll always be the P/E stupid."
And now, of course, it's happened.
I'd love to see the (lazy and REIC-ad-supported) Arizona Republic, maybe even Rolodex-of-Realtors Catherine Reagor, do a piece on the foreclosure madness at the Third Avenue Lofts. Every unit would no doubt have story - mortgage fraudsters, failed flippers, Scottsdale posers, cash-back-at-close con artists, realtor investors, and some pretty dumb sheeple who bought at the peak without any regard to the fundamentals.
$395000 LESS THAN 1/2 PRICE - LUXURY SCOTTSDALE, AZ CONDO
A FORECLOSURE STEAL!!! $455,000 PRICE REDUCTION FROM ORIGINAL PURCHASE PRICE OF $850,000 IN 2006 FOR QUICK SALE! QUALITY UPSCALE, MODERN, 1 BEDROOM (1072 TSF) EXECUTIVE LOFT WITH 24-HOUR SECURITY, FULL-SERVICE CONCIERGE, UNDERGROUND/GATED PARKING AND MANY FINE AMENITIES
May 03, 2008
HP favorite target "Third Avenue Lofts" in Scottsdale Arizona now going for more than half off
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33 comments:
Just an observation -
In many previously hot markets - Inventory appears to have stabilized between March and April (If not decreased ever so slightly) -- Not your normal March to April trend.
In addition, inventories for April are very close to the same for the previous year (based on inventory tracking blog data).
What are we to make of this ? Just a blip ?
Wake me up when it gets to $95,000
Banks are hoarding properties and not putting them on the market so they don't destroy their portfolio's comps or mark-to-market value
what is a condo keith? its just a glorified apartment. even if you paid it off, you are still stuck with insurance, taxes, maintenance fees, club fees or whatever else fees they have in a place like that. who needs it? piss on it. they are not worth 150k much less half price....
Executive loft! That's rich.
I would not want to live there even if they were 100K.
Seems a bit deserted to me. Maybe everyone is at work. :)
"In many previously hot markets - Inventory appears to have stabilized between March and April (If not decreased ever so slightly) -- Not your normal March to April trend.
In addition, inventories for April are very close to the same for the previous year (based on inventory tracking blog data).
What are we to make of this ? Just a blip ?"
I think there are at least two good reasons for this.
One reason is that only the people who really need to sell are selling. The people who really didn't need to sell are not bothering to list their houses as much as they used to, because they finally understand they won't get the prices they were seeking. Don't know why it took them so long to figure it out, but they finally get it. The only person who apparently doesn't understand this is Lawrence Yun.
A second reason is that there are many properties that are not on the MLS, a higher ratio than in past years. See the Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking blog for one of its May 1 posts which explains the inventory question. Basically, houses are going into foreclosure and the owners aren't even bothering to list the houses (and some of these owners are REALTORS!) They've decided to walk away without even trying, so those won't show up as listings, if at all, until they are bank-owned properties.
We have nonsense like that in California, too. But they are not cutting prices yet:
Mercer Walnut Creek
Bulldoze the building and turn it back into desert.
OR
Put Bars on the windows and doors mand razor wire the perimeter and turn into America firt debtors prison. Allow no air conditionong and only 1 shower per month.
Amgelo Mozilo first inmate followed by George W. Bushco and friends.
Check this out:
http://tinyurl.com/5dbljb
Some fool is suing because a neighboring house is being sold for "too low", and "brings down the value" of his own. Unbelievable.
Found it thru The Housing Bubble Blog.
RE: "And how about those 21 reasons again (link to Greg Swann)"
AGAGAGAGAGAGA!!! ROTFLMAO. Keep up the great work, dude! Keep jammin Swann's words right back down his throat.
I called Scott this morning to let him know he's famous. He thanked me.
$455K for a 1 bedroom?? Jeesh! If I can get that price right here in GEORGETOWN, DC, why would I want to pay that in SCOTTSDALE????
Must be close to a metro or something. :)
It still needs to come down half from $395K to $195K.
Then, perhaps, the elite 5% of Arizona breadwinners can afford it.
You fricken' lunatic realt whores have precipitated this conflagration of housing madness!
I would pay $125,000, but since it's in Scottsdale, I would only pay $100,000
That building looks like public housing here in NJ. Not kidding either.
was thinking of offering 125,000 but then thought of all the other units unpaid taxes and maintenence bills.....
1972 Oil price under Nixon - $3.60
1980 Oil price under Peanut Brains Carter - $38
Over 1000% INCREASE!!!
Boy those solar panels on the White House really helped fool the sheeple while Cater and his gang were fleecing them
Anonymous said...
Check this out:
http://tinyurl.com/5dbljb
Some fool is suing because a neighboring house is being sold for "too low", and "brings down the value" of his own. Unbelievable.
Found it thru The Housing Bubble Blog.
===========================
I did check it out! God, this is hilarious! A bunch of FB's filing lawsuits because the builder is building cheaper (50%) homes. I figure in a year, or less, the FB's homes will be right down there in that price range anyway, so it probably will be laughed out of court!
What's next, suing the banks for selling foreclosed properties at their true valve, or less, to get them off the books?
"The nerve of those banks, selling properties for what they are worth, where's my lawyer's number?"
Well it did say "EXECUTIVE" LOFT, so I suppose it's a bargin at 400k.
I'll take two.
Sundry
AGAGAGAGAGAGA!!! ROTFLMAO. Keep up the great work, dude! Keep jammin Swann's words right back down his throat.
_______________
Yep.
Hi Mammoth, Richard and Buzz.
FMW
Anonymous said...
Check this out:
http://tinyurl.com/5dbljb
Some fool is suing because a neighboring house is being sold for "too low", and "brings down the value" of his own. Unbelievable.
Found it thru The Housing Bubble Blog.
May 03, 2008 4:35 PM
This guy should counter-sue to make mr. jerk buy his house at a highly inflated price.
I'd love to see a lawyer argue both sides of that.
Lawyer: your honor this man is selling his house at far too low a price, why it's worth at least $900k! Also his counter suit is rediculous that house isn't worth even $95k!
About p/e: surely rents have to come down in the future too? that has to bring 'p' down further than would appear today.
I rent in pasadena and am fed up of paying 50% of my net salary in rent. And I have a decent job too!
1. I second Chris. Lots of properties are being held off the market or are being stealth marketed. I would add another class of properties that are being held off the market: those that are subject to fraud investigations.
2. The real estate "pros" here in Salt Lake City sound just like Swann used to: No problems here, just keep moving forward. Of course, we know how the "pros" make their money. Which leads me to...
3. What makes you think a real estate agent would have kept someone from buying that place for $895K? I haven't seen many agents trying to put the breaks on the feeding frenzy.
I rent in pasadena and am fed up of paying 50% of my net salary in rent. And I have a decent job too!
If you pay more than 25% of GI in rent, you're getting screwed financially and should make some radical changes so you don't retire in poverty. I sold my house at peak and now rent for 21% GI (oceanfront).
rent of $1000 x 100 = $100,000.00 MAX sales price. ANY QUESTIONS?????
Keith, here's the real scoop on Third Ave Lofts. A couple of investors went in and bought 20 of those dumps. All of them went into foreclosure. I heard that the HOA couldn't pay the bills for trash collection etc. and was going to have to charge over a thousand a month. When the remaining residents found out some went ballistic and immediately put their Third Ave. Dump on the market. That picture you had of all the lockboxes a while back was no joke.
I was just in Scottsdale for a meeting and drove by that place - it looks like a ghost town around there. Nobody even on the streets.
Went to Grazie Pizza nearby, pizza was still good but service was an absolutely horrible joke.
What was really noticeable too was the lack of luxury cars on Scottsdale roads compared to a year ago and the much lighter traffic overall.
C-R-A-S-H!
Jeesh! If I can get that price right here in GEORGETOWN, DC, why would I want to pay that in SCOTTSDALE????
You, my friend, just touched on the dirty little secret of the Scottsdale phonies:
If they're all so filthy rich like they say, then why on earth are they living in SCOTTSDALE?
Enough said.
What’s the P&E on that? Still way out of whack!
It's the PEG stupid!!!
Keith....P/E is a terrible way to evaluate an investment. A much better metric is the PEG. However, that metric is always debatable as the G is not a known quantity.
That said I do agree with you, in fact that situation gets even more ridiculous, as I believe the G to be close to zero for the medium term, and essentially at inflation for the long term.
I am really just restating what bitter renter already said.
The appraiser at $850k should be investigated for fraud
I'm not sure what all the fuss is about this place. Isn't it hitting the entire nation like this? I live in north phoenix in mainly a middle class neighborhood where home values in '06 were close to $300k now I just saw a home in the same area being sold by the bank for $90k. I have another buddy that lives in Michigan that said prices have dropped so much that the banks are almost giving them away, and still no one is buying them. I also own property in California that luckily I bought right before the boom. I was able to sell it for almost 4 times what I paid for it. I recently was looking at property in that neighborhood again 2 weeks ago and saw the house I sold up for sale again from the bank for less than I originally paid for it. I think a lot of you are confused in thinking that it is just this building......It is everywhere. It certainly sounds like this building got hit by some shady people, but so did a lot of other places.
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