The Great Unwinding, Housing Crash, Mortgage Meltdown and Credit Crisis is a baseball game.
What inning are we in?
April 14, 2008
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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33 comments:
Definitely out of the 1st inning which would be the start of this mess, and not in 9th inning since it is not over. So somewhere between 2nd & 8th inning.
If you are including the dollar depreciation, inflation of food, and other issues all tied to housing, then I would say 4th inning, with increasing probability of extra innings.
INNING?
WE'RE STILL LYING ABOUT THE STEROIDS USE...
CASEY SERIN INJECTED...
ORANGE MAN SOLD THE DRUGS...
AND ALTHOUGH CONGRESS QUESTIONED ORANGE MAN AND THE OTHER STEROIDS DEALERS ON NATIONAL TV, NOTHING CAME OF IT...
DOPES!!!
Since the run up was also part of the game, I would say bottom of the 6th or top of the 7th.
Top of the 4th inning, Keefer
The only problem is that this is going to be a marathon 18 inning game.
This is gonna' take years to play out.
Top of the 4th and 1 out.
Burn Baby Burn
Just like f'n baseball, it all sucks.
the 3rd fo sho.
i'd have to agree with anonymous and say 6th but the top of the 6th inning, not bottom.
Bottom of the 2nd inning.
bottom of the third...this thing is just getting warmed up.
Somewhere around the 4th or 5th innning.
There are still too many in the crowd for the home team with hope that the housing crash won't happen. They think a few plays in the field by the FED, the world central banks and Sovereign Wealth funds are turning things around. In second inning the US governments had a nice looking fly ball so in the next inning (may) they hope the US government will come thru with a big hit or maybe a homr run.
On the other side, housing panic has been putting people on bases every inning and their plays in the field are just out of this world. In fact, nobody could have anticipated how they would play. The assists from the outfield have taken away every extra base hit the home team tried to push out.
In reality housing panic is cleaning up on the home team. While everyone on the home team is cheering away the unattached observers know the home team's 2nd pitcher is done and the bullpen is not up to the task as they are all side-armed low velocity guys with a tendency to throw the ball in the dirt (interest rates and the dollar). Unfortunately, today's starting pitcher Greenspan and his replacement Bernanke both threw the same way. Maybe there's a rookie they can call in with high velocity and some new stuff???
You'll be able to tell when the seventh inning starts because everyone supporting the home team will collectively wonder how much longer this game is going to last. They know they aren't going to win, so the team will start pulling players. The people going off for a bathroom break won't come back.
It's sad, but this game has sometime to play out.
I would say middle of the 4th inning, since it looks like we're half way there.
The worst innings are ahead. I'm not even sure that we'll make to the seventh inning stretch alive.
As someone said above, this may be an 18 inning game. Mr Bernanke is trying so hard, that he'll stretch the pain even more. Just let it be over Bernanke, let it be over.
Dny
C'mon Keith...baseball fights are for the faint of heart...this great unwinding is more like the Vazquez/Marquez trilogy. Real pain, real blood, broken noses, disappearing eyes...I farkin' love it!
And BTW, I still haven't received my farm-aid. Prices @ an all-time high...the farmers are now on par w/ the American M.D....rolling in cash!
Willie & Cougar...WHERE'S MY FARM-AID?
Majority not buying homes, poll shows
Number of people 'definitely' not buying over next two years surges to 60%; one in four homeowners fear drop in home values.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A growing majority say they won't buy a home anytime soon, the latest sign of increasing pessimism about the nation's housing crisis, a poll showed Monday.
In a vivid sketch of how the sputtering real estate market is causing distress throughout the country, the Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll found that more than a quarter of homeowners worry their home will lose value over the next two years.
Fully one in seven mortgage holders fear they won't be able to make their monthly payments on time over the next six months.
http://tinyurl.com/4whryf
Good trick question, Keith. The answer is: Roseanne Barr is still singing the last verse of the National Anthem. Housing bubbles historically take 10 years to correct, but this is the MOAB (Mother of All Bubbles). Japan real estate dropped for 20 years, right? We've only been in this 2 years.
I'm not sure, but we're going into extra innings, BAYBEEEE
Wrong analogy because extra innings are *sudden death* matches, not true overtimes as in basketball.
It's more like a b-ball game with 3 OTs and we're in the first 5 mins of the 2nd quarter.
The question should be, What is the Score?
Im thinking its a tie ball game, but were in the 6th and their releif pitchers just got shelled. Momentum is clearly on the HP side and this could quickly turn into a blowout.
3rd or 4th inning.
We've still got a LONG way to go before this one is over.
I'm just kickin' back, got a beer in my hand and enjoying the spectacle!
Jymkata
Baseball? WTF is that? That sport died years ago when teams bought their championships. It's about as real as pro wrestling.
Top of the 4th.
Thing is, Bernanke pulled the starter in the 1st inning and he has now gone through the entire bullpen. The NAR, NAHB and Connie Degroot are all pinning their hopes on an old, tired and over-worked Mariano 'low rates' Rivera. Sure, low rates were unhittable in their prime. But their legacy is now being tarnished by having been kept in the game too long.
And quess what? Rivera is now going to have to pitch through the top of the order. Deleveraging is batting like Ted Williams this year with a .400 average. Meanwhile, inflation is on a base-stealing tear and the recession is playing like a seasoned veteran despite being just a rookie.
This game is going to be a blow-out of biblical proportions.
Burp, Fart, Belch
Lap 365 of 500 in NASCAR terms.
Pass the cheese nachos Jane.
Joe SixPack
Fart, lugi hurl, stinky feet on seat....
This game can not ever "end". The government and many consumers have already spent their futures. The medical system, school system, SS and medicare, the roads and bridges all need epic levels of financial support. The rest of the world is gradually pulling away from being tied to the American economy at the hip.
This is not analogous to a baseball game. A baseball game has clear rules and a way to win.
There is no way to win here. The lifestyle of the vast majority of Americans will be much different in 10 years, 20 years, 30 years.
Hey Keith,
Unfortunately we are only in the top of the second inning. This is going to get seriously ugly. Here in the Inland Empire there is a sense of defeat. Businesses are closing in mass and homes are not moving. The REOS are just about to mount an all out assault on our inventory and we already have "The most active listings ever!!!
The yard sales and estate sales are going bananas every weekend around here. Keith it is getting serious around here. I see many people moving out every weekend.
I went to the Moreno Valley mall last week and it sent chills down my spine. Over %40 of that mall is closed down including Gottschalks. They are trying to say there is a restructuring going on but sales are horrible in this area.
Gas prices are around $3.75 in this area which is putting extreme pressure on Orange County commuters. This will certainly deter more people moving from O.C. or L.A. to the Inland Empire.
Gas prices are going to bankrupt many companies if they keep escalating. We are in deep trouble people, you have to prepare. I have heard Truckers that have been in business for over 35 years that have never seen conditions this bad. The signs are bad if 4 airline companies go bankrupt in one week. The trucking industry is on the verge of panic. Truckers say they have to pass on loads that pay 700 dollars yet their gas bill is $900. These are also truckers that own their rigs free and clear.
These problems are deep rooted and is going beyond housing. There are signs of inflation everywhere but when it is all said and done, this is "Deflation" In the true scope here in the Inland Empire, people are screaming for cash. They are selling boats, cars, washers & dryers, kitchen sets, sofas, and just about anything they can get their hands on. We are seeing credit lines dry up and prices falling about $50,000 every three months.
Cash is King in the I.E.!!!!
The chain reaction has begun don't be fooled!!! Why do you think they will be handing out free money.
These bastards should have bailed out our States not some friggin corporations that made billions from us.
When prices in housing finally bottoms out we are all going to be shocked!!!!
THE UNITED STATES IS FOR SALE!!!
ICEMAN
They are still singing the National Anthem!
Were in the 7th inning stretch and Roseanne Bar is singing the national anthem.
4th. I hope.
2nd inning since I live in San Francisco.
8 inning . . . of the first game in a three or four-game series! Remember the "big" summer-2000 bounce on Nasdaq? from 31000 to over 4200 (after dropping from 5000)? Just remember, the subsequent drop from 4200 to 1200! That's another 70% loss opportunity if you jump in at 4000!
Interesting that you would choose the "wait till next year" Chicago Cubs as your example team. The NAR is a lot like a Cubs fan: separated from reality. The Cubs haven't won a championship since 1908, thats 100 freakin years! We could have the NAR spinning their BS for 100 years before housing recovers from this disaster.
I agree with most of the comments here so far. We are pretty much between the 4th and 6th. Just depends on how much the Government decides to get into it. They leave it alone, we probably have 1.5 years left (6th inning). If they intervene, and of course they will, we probably have 2.5 years (4th inning) left.
We are somewhere in the 4th Inning. Fact is the bank examiners are in town (at least in Phx) and are taking hard looks at books. Upon examination, they will make capital calls, then most if not all private homebuilders will be gone (save for the more prudent ones who didn't try to develop multiple sections of land).
All the bottom feeders who are looking at foreclosures will be so overwhelmed with new houses (arriving in the thousands per month), there will be a value problem. This is happening right now but will probably get worse.
There will probably be a lot of lightening storms as well in the top of the 7th Inning. Just saying.
THIRD INNING !!!!!!!!!
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