March 25, 2007

The NAR f*cks over the gullible MSM and sheeple, leads them to believe used home sales were up last month. That was NOT the case.

Yup, the spinmeisters at the NAR are good. Real good. To be matched only by the laziness and incompetence of the mainstream media.

Why do the bloggers have to do the work of the MSM? For god's sake - they get paid to do a job, not copy and paste NAR press releases!

Anyway, as any dolt knows, home sales increase in the springtime month over month, every year, even if the world is ending. It's called "the home buying season" for a reason. So you don't look at February vs. January, or April vs. March. No, just like retailers look at Christmas vs. Christmas, not Christmas vs. July, any dummy that follows the housing market, INCLUDING THE FU*KING NAR, looks year over year.

Here's the real numbers, and headline the MSM should have reported:

Dubious NAR report shows home sales continue to crater, off 3.7% vs. last year, while unsold inventory explodes by another 763,000 units and median sales price (without incentives) is down 7.6% from peak

February used home sales (per the dubious NAR numbers) were supposedly 387,000 units, vs. 402,000 units February 2006, down 3.7%. Inventory is now at 3,748,000, vs. 2,985,000 in February 2006, up 763,000 unwanted homes, or 25.6%. And the median sales price (without cash back or incentives) in February of $212,800 is down $17,400 from the July 2006 peak.

Suck on that MSM. And next time, in April, or May, when the NAR spins you like a top again, wake the fu*k up and do your f*cking jobs. Here's the breathless report in the New York Times, one of many with the same headline and spin.

(chart from the always-spot-on housingdoom blog, who is all over this NAR spin and BS)

Existing-Home Sales Rise Most in 3 Years

Sales of existing homes rose in February by the largest amount in nearly three years, but worsening troubles in subprime mortgages were viewed as a roadblock to a full-fledged rebound.

The National Association of Realtors reported on Friday that existing-home sales climbed 3.9 percent last month, pushed higher by a milder-than-normal winter that increased sales in some areas like the Northeast.

It was the biggest one-month gain since March 2004 and left sales at an annual rate of 6.69 million units, a pace that was still 3.6 percent below a year ago.

Existing-home sales were up 14.2 percent in the Northeast, a gain attributed in large part to warmer-than-normal weather.


Anonymous said...

Just saw a word for word reading of the press release on CBS this morning. Attempted manipulation will not stop the inevitable, but it will bend over a few more sheep.

Bill said...

We believe a credit crunch is underway. It started with the housing slowdown, which resulted in deteriorating real estate prices (collateral values), is now fed by adjustable rate mortgages resetting higher, that make it difficult for many homeowners to make payments on time. Without rising values, refinancing isn't an option, resale isn't an option (folks owe more than they can get, net of real estate sales commissions and taxes), and so they are forced to hand lenders the keys. This has resulted in losses for subprime lenders, who generated loans to marginal borrowers based upon unsubstantiated incomes, and a belief that collateral values would continue rising.


The thing that bothers me the most about this comment...and many othe rcomment I have read about this Sub-Prime Abortion is, They all seem to be saying they made marginal loans to marginal borrowers.

This is not the case I have read many articles where a person was Refied into theses loans just to take money out of their Equity...and many of the folks that did refi had 30 year fixed rates and good credit...The marginal borrower over the last 2 years is screwed for sure...but so are the ones who refied into thses toxic the picture is a lot more broader than what is being spun on the News.

Anonymous said...

As far as I'm concerned I'm all in. I've sold and have been renting for almost a year. Prices arent deflating that much yet. The problem may be there are a lot of people in this world who got way more money than they know what to do with. So until they get scared to buy, prices on the nice stuff in a good location aren't going to waiver much, unfortunatly.

Anonymous said...

There is no longer a profession of journalism; if you can annoit yourself a journalist and get rich at it (ala Anderson Cooper), then it isn't a profession.

For example, you don't see self annoited brain surgeons, engineers or accountants. Hell, you don't even see self annoited hair stylists. Think about that.

The MSM is largely a dumping ground for upper-middle class kids who have exempted themselves from the indignity of having a job which (and that means you America) they see as a form of wasting your life.

It's not a liberal bias in the media, it's a upper-middle class bias, though people have a hard time putting their finger on that.

Anonymous said...

EEEeeeHAW (cracks whip).

I guess no one told you folks that, oh, about 25 years back the MSM (main stream media)became nothing more than paid advertising for the powers that be.

Anonymous said...

I guess this just gives more time to get our shorts in. I need a good quick education in options. Any advice Keith? Oh and as far as the media, on Bloomberg the reporter is saying that the existing home sales were higher than that projected by rose the economists surveyed. Now, did he/she ever ask if the economists were referring to YOY? If she didn't (and they were) it's even worse than I thought.

Anonymous said...

There is NO CREDIT CRUNCH. Look at M3 and its still growing at 11%. The money may not be going into mortgages, but it is going somewhere.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Thank you for the correct analysis, Keith.

I saw that head line and it looked so ridiculous that I did not even bother to read the story.

I am glad I did'nt wast a few minutes of my life on it. Glad I saw it here first.


Mozo Maz said...

Expansion in population is at least .3% a year anyway. So even flat YoY unit sales, are a decline in real terms.

Inflation is at least 4% a year. So even flat YoY dollar volume, is a decline in real terms.

No wonder I get my news first from the blogsphere. They get me ready for what I'm about to see printed in the MSM.

Anonymous said...

Consumer credit crunch Zappa ... your statement makes me think of those arguments that cost of war is affordable as a percentage of GDP. I keep waiting for a MSM follow-up question, BTW, that asks for the correlation of GDP and affordability, but (sigh) it never happens.

It strikes me the most logical thing that banks will be able to do in the coming profit squeeze is to tighten up lending standards because a rise in interest rates would be economic suicide.

Anonymous said...

I read this same information in the SF Chronicle. They said the numbers were seasonally-adjusted. Looking at the raw numbers posted here, there is no excuse for such a report. It continues to amaze me how the MSM is just not doing their job with this story. Even now as the obvious house of cards they failed to point out to the sheeple is caving in, they still fail to question the BS that continually emanates from the RE industry.

While we're disembowelling and replacing the government in the next couple of years, we should do the same to the MSM. We need people that are capable of uncovering and reporting the truth, not these f_ing mouthpieces we have now. Is there a blog dedicated to shaming the MSM? There should be.

JC said...

check out this article

Sob story

It's true the lenders were shark, but I just don't buy that the borrowers are all victims. Credit has been a scam for decades now, mortgages are the biggest form of credit for most. People wanted to stick their head in the sand, they knew the interest was going up, they knew they already have 3 kids they can hardly feed but took on more debt to live in lollipop land. Then all the sudden their victims who bought the creditors sales pitch. No I don't think they are victims just suckers. Sure there will be increased scrutiny on sub prime loands but a new suckers game will soon emerge. There will always be people who wish to consume more than they can afford while wanting to get rich quick at the same time. Words like family and home evoke instant and deep emotions in America, but using them in a news article doesn't make me sympathize with fools and their (lack of) money.

Anonymous said...

"There is NO CREDIT CRUNCH. Look at M3 and its still growing at 11%."

Where do you get that? They quit publishing M3 a long time ago.

Anonymous said...

All that liquidity will eventually find its way into foreign markets. The Fed can print and lower rates all they want, but they cannot force it to stay in the US markets. The ponzi scheme will eventually fail. Has there ever been one that didn't?

Anonymous said...

Sofia: Private sector still tracks M3 using raw data available in Fed's reporting. Check out :

Anonymous said...

M3 is tacked by private sector.

Anonymous said...

The Washington Post reported these median single family home sales price numbers for the DC metro area Sunday, March 17:

2002: $240,000
2003: $279,000
2004: $330,000
2005: $419,000
2006: $417,000

Looks like the bubble stopped growing, no burst pattern here yet. It seems to have grown many times faster than area incomes and in too short of a time. Not looking for alot of price appreciation in the near future.

Anonymous said...

Of course the NAR aren't the only spinners. Last Thursday's headline "Foreign cenbanks net buyers of US debt - Fed" (March 22nd) by Reuters hides the negative net treasuries sales as well as it can (offset by huge buys of agencies, heaven only knows why).

Anonymous said...

AOL pulled the story regarding the rising home sales after 15 minutes...they couldn't take the heat from the BH's telling the truth.

Anonymous said...

From HousingDoom - Phoenix has 12 months of inventory now!

Phoenix - Sales are “Sobering”
By twist
Thank you M for the latest Phoenix update!:


[data from ARMLS]

Sold March 1-24 ‘07 3,968
Sold March 1-24 ‘06 5,144

Percent change: -23%

Total inventory as of this morning: 49,533

eternitus said...

Great Post! Check out my blog, which also points out dubious NAR numbers... and provides a reprint of a great article from the Wall Street Journal (who do the best job of any major publication covering this mess)... They sort of call out David Lereah for the NAR's Phantom "Price Revisions"...

This was the second straight month the NAR revised the year-ago numbers downward (to make the YOY drop appear less severe) - this SHOULDN'T HAPPEN. Revising after two, three, or six months, maybe... but this just smells fishy.

I just started my blog two weeks ago, but I write to provide balanced information... check it out... hopefully the information will be of some use to you.

Anonymous said...

The MSM is largely a dumping ground for upper-middle class kids who have exempted themselves from the indignity of having a job. It's not a liberal bias in the media, it's a upper-middle class bias, though people have a hard time putting their finger on that.

I have worked in broadcast TV for over 30 years. The above is 100% correct. We hire reporters right out of college who show up wearing $500 suits and driving new sports cars. All for a McJob that pays MAYBE $9 an hour. They cannot afford to work here without Daddy's money to keep them up.

The only thing they know how to do is take a faxed press release and retype it into the script. We had a reporter doing a story on Gas prices who didn't know what OPEC was! These kids are spoiled and DUMB as a box of rocks.

Anonymous said...

sound like Mr. Dover is a jealous little baby who huffs and puff about how unfair the world is.

Typical of the renting set.