I. Can't. Believe. What. I'm. Reading.
Oh. Dear. God.
It's like REIC aliens have taken over this poor writer's body and brain. Maybe a nice big under-the-table check from the NAR? What a fantastic piece by Forbes. I wonder when they'll fire the writer and editor responsible for this doozy.
Housing Boom!
Forbes
Kenneth L. Fisher
Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster.
We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now.
Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and that inventories are lower than six months ago? We're accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board.
32 comments:
in this era of lots of "low paid jobs," housing needs to keep bubbling to give people income... it's certainly a silly economy but...
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Here's another article from this REIC cheerleader, from housing peak July 2005.
http://tinyurl.com/34vzhv
He must own a bunch of real estate (shouldn't Forbes have to disclose his holdings?)
Bubblenomics
By Kenneth L. Fisher | Jul 04 '05
The real bubble must be the airholes in those brains that thought interest rates would rise.
So, are home prices a bubble, ready to burst and implode the economy with it? No! Real bubbles are never commonly referred to as bubbles in the press until after they've burst. Real estate doesn't qualify. You can't pick up a reference to home prices in any newspaper or magazine nowadays without seeing the word bubble nearby. That is true here and around the Western World. Only here is it seen as American-only. In Britain, for example, they not only bubble-fret about
Do the opposite of this Fisher guy and you will be rich. He is the dumbest SOB to ever write for Frobes, and that's saying ALOT.
Take the drugs away from this fool.
These morons will be cheerleading in their own sh@t.Never listen to an analyst or con man.There is a reason these people are rich and it's by f@cking over as many people as they can.
Same stupid comments as some of the trolls on this site trying to link stock prices to home prices
They have nothing to do with each other
Tell the guy who is getting foreclosed on that his homebuilder's stock is recovering.
I don't think he'll really care too much
Ken Fisher is AN ASSHOLE. He runs a huge money management firm somewhere in CA that was started by his father. He's got a book out now, the premise of which goes like this: you gotta know what others don't to make money in the market. MEMO TO KENNETH: THE SECRET IS THERE IS NO SECRET.
He's talking his book like there's no tomorrow, in more ways than one.
Fisher lives in Woodside, California on top of Kings Mountain with his wife Sherrilyn.
Ah, in the heart of the bubble market. San Jose McMansion owner. Who would have thunk?
Is Ken Fisher added to the list of housing panic villans?
Anonymous said...
Is Ken Fisher added to the list of housing panic villans?
February 11, 2007 3:39 PM
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After an article like this I think he is at least on the radar screen, if not vaulted into the top ten.
With 1.5% U.S. population growth that is almost 4.5 million new people per year by birth, immigration, and longer life spans. More housing is desired.
While I may want more, it is not always possible to afford more, nor easy to produce more.
Lending money to people with bad credit histories and expecting somehow they learned to budget their money or not borrow more than they can repay is a flawed theory. These people have always wanted to borrow more, but were not always allowed to. One would suppose the experts had calculated the risk, but if so, why was NEW stock down 40% at the end of last week?
Those heavily invested in the REIC are willing to do anything to pump their dwindling investments. I see this type of BS everyday on MSNBS, desperate people lying their ass off.
Hey Fisher, have you heard of a "dead cat bounce?"
Well, that is what you are seeing with builders stocks.
I wonder how much publications get paid for pumping the spin.
Another rosy article here in the New Haven Register today. They even have a picture of a house made of hundred dollar bills.
http://www.nhregister.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17837818&BRD=1281&PAG=461&dept_id=7546&rfi=6
But what I really wonder is, is this considered ethical. Do they just have line items in their books like:
$15,000: NAR sponsored article, Housing, Feb 11.
Or is it cash that is taken on the QT. Of course only public companies have to show their books.
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builders got their dead cat bounce, but their stock prices have NOTHING to do with home prices.
Builders will consolidate, they'll keep building (with lower margins), they'll undercut current homedebtors.
But prices will keep coming down and down and down.
I like how this article quoted sales were going up. Uh, no they aren't. YOY sales declines nationwide are double digit. Nobody looks at monthlies given the seasonality of home selling.
But then again, this author doesn't know his head from his ass, so that makes sense.
I seriously think he'll be exposed later on in an NAR payola scheme.
He has a funny logic.
Homebuilding company stocks are going up. Therefore there is no "real estate bust" or "landing" even at all.
Therefore you should buy homebuilding stocks.
So if they're going up, buy them.
Which is why they went up in the first place.
If enough people buy homebuilding stocks and push the prices up, then, with his logic, home sales will be great and people will be buying houses like 2005 all over again! Something doesn't follow.
He bills himself as a 'money manager', etc. How can someone be so misinformed? It's not just a difference of opinion. It's the logic that "homebuilder stocks have risen, therefore you should buy them". Brilliant.
I hope the guy is just an idiot and not actually diabolical. There are an extraordinary amount of people that still don't get it. But I don't see how he could not know SOMEBODY that either can't sell their house or are having problems with debt. Maybe they think if they tell people it will be okay that can actually believe it will be.
Goodness!!
This Fisher guy is retarded.
Ken Fisher is talking to people who invest in stocks, not real estate.
He's not saying go out and buy real estate, he's saying buy stocks. Like the ones his firm and clients own.
He's almost a permabull in stocks, as that's how he makes his really big paychecks.
But obviously his Jul '05 column was completely wrong as it was about real estate prices. During the dot com bubble, plenty of people were saying "it's a bubble" well on the way up. The thesis that bubbles are named only after the burst is factually incorrect.
What is correct is that there are always bubble cheerleaders who say it's different this time.
BTW, Steve Forbes is the dumbest guy to write for Forbes.
Malcolm was smart, son, not so.
"You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback."
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It's a classic Pump and Dump scheme.
The CEO's, and major bag holders are trying to pump the prices up, then sell. This is looking like it came straight out of the 1929 crash play book.
"Inventory is less today [February] than it was six months ago [August]."
Ya think?!?
We all know that there's no cyclicality in markets such as housing. Is this guy really this stupid, or just this venal?
You know that it's way colder today than it was six months ago. I guess that means that global warming isn't happening.
Housing is a great investment and always will be! It's a wonderful time to buy!
How do I know? Why, silly billy, because Suzanne, Greg Swann, and Kenneth Fisher researched it!
Here's part 2 on why it's different this time. This is perhaps the most compelling part of this series. Pay close attention to the spreadsheet at the end of the article. I've never seen a site that compares median house prices with interest rates. If you compare the numbers, there is no relation.
I CAN'T BELIEVE KEN FISCHER SAID THIS.
I READ IT TOO IN BARNES N NOBLE TODYA.
I VEHEMENTLY DISSAGREE WITH KEN.
I'M IN PHX METRO, AND I CAN TELL YOU I SMELL A MASS EXODUS FROM THIS PLACE IN 07 AND 08.
I'M OUTTA HERE.
LMAO!
Who is this guy? Henry Blodget's long lost brother??
The article was written at least a month ahead of time. The market was fine then with no surprises. But just this past Friday (2/9/07), the Fed hinted a possibility of an interest rate hike if inflation gets out of hand.
Forbes.com has a long history of running inflammatory and provocative trolling/flamebait articles just to drive traffic. Those of you in the IT industry may be aware of their coverage of the SCO-IBM Linux lawsuit.
If you want to send a message ... don't click and deny them the revenue from the traffic.
Builder stocks go up because there's a lot of pumping to short right after. This market is totally manipulated by big money. They pump and pump the stocks just to short later.
Note to Ken Fisher: Go ahead and lead the way by buying a few McMansions in bubble areas right now. Money talks...
He's just another disinformation agent who lies to make a buck, just like the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, James C Cooper from BusinessWeek, Forbes, Fox News, economic indicators, etc. Only a fool would believe those sources.
This guy is insane - call the wagon! The jim Jones of our time.
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