If you could short a city like you short a stock, what city would you choose?
August 02, 2006
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47 comments:
This is a no brainer. Short those outskirts towns that have had enormous upswings. These places have no jobs, consume alot of energy, and cost alot in gasoline to travel to. The big cities typically hold up pretty well because of the job market. This is a good time to buy an apartment building in Los Angeles, New York, and the like.
Short Flea-nix
Phoenix would be so buried in puts that it wouldn't know what hit it!
I agree with #1. The country vacation home is the first to go.
Bakersfield, Riverside, Visalia, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Palmdale, Lancaster, Victorville, Canyon Country, Lompoc, Ventura.
Phoenix
Fresno
Tampa
all the far away outskirts of DC
san diego first, and phoenix a very close second.
oh, and i live in phoenix.
Riverside, CA. Biggest shithole this side of the Colorado. Hot, smelly, crime infested,cookie cutter bland track homes. And I live here. I dont care, I bought prebubble. Even if we nosedive 50%, I still gotz me sum equity beeatch!
Right now, Miami and Key West with Hurricane Chris coming.
Woo hoo...a gas guzzler
A really big house that cost tons to heat/cool and a vehicle which gets hideous gas mileage.
http://tinyurl.com/ztdvz
Miami. its gets beaten down like an ugly stepchild in every cycle.
tampa. naples.
Geeski said san diego and then phoenix and he lives in phoenix well i live in san diego and that is like comparing a bueatiful womans butt hole to her face and san diego is her face - phoenix is a shit hole - hotter than hell itself - nothing to look at but mexicans and weeds - no beautiful landscape anywhere in the close proximity to phoenix - lets face it all it ever had was vast amounts of realllyyy cheap land and now that is gone - so they have ZERO Nothing to offer. San diego on the other hand has the most bueatiful pacific ocean - la jolla hills - Rancho Sante Fe woodlands - the julian mountains and pine trees - Rossereto beach in Mexico - mission bay park 15 square miles of bueatifully landscaped beaches and bays. and all that is within 45 minutes driving time from the center of downtown. when this all blows over San diego will still be the draw to people that it always has I should know I have lived here 58 years and have lived in Hawaii - Costa Rica - Monterey - No other place in the world has our Weather by the way - and is very seldom that you need air conditioning within 10 miles of the coast - so you see Phoenix is the Anus and San Diego is the Beautiful face.
yo anon - the blog is about cities that will face sharply falling housing prices. sorry for you, old-timer, but you're ground zero for property correction, regardless of how much you love san diego, and how little you love phoenix. grow up, since you've already grown old.
one last thought, anon, you forgot to mention that san diego has top-notch spellers. kisses.
we might not spell up to your specs but we sure can pick better geography can't we or is the sweat in your eyes affecting your judgement. As for ground zero I - I purchased back in 96 so even if the prices drop 150% I still am ahead of all the Zonies that moved here...
i love these pissing matches of "my place is better than your place". it is like playground fights in elementary school. it is a free country, live where ever you'd like. i choose phoenix, you choose san diego. enjoy.
does someone need a hug ?
we might all be surprised to find out detroit makes the #1 meltdown list for 2007
Northern Virginia.... I hate this place.
DC-
1. Fairly substantial bubble going on;
2. The loss of all those government/defense industry related jobs "that keep this market from being affected bya bubble." - just wait for the budget cuts.
3. The inevitable return of crack.
4. And, I hate to say it, but its a pretty big target for them "evil doer's"
The only problem with San Diego is the very High cost of Real Estate and the Hoards of Humanity squatting here.
Detroit, Michigan.
There is no upside.
Population has been falling rapidly for many decades. It will continue to fall.
London, Paris, Sydney for starters and maybe the ten cities that rank before New York city as the most expensive places in the world to live.
Paris! it's a no brainer.
Definitely Miami or any other city in South Florida. People are getting bills for $8K to $10K from the state insurance fund for this year's premium on a nothing-special-1500sqft home - not on the beach. Last year they were half that price. Most middle class people can't take that kind of rate hike with flat incomes. While there is a demand crash everywhere else, there is a sellers-panic in South Florida. And the higher bills just started going out on June 1. Most people haven't received theirs yet.
Beirut???
Phoenix is a no-brainer (as good as shorting GOOG). Does anyone remember the ghost town-like subdivisions in the early to mid-'90s in AZ? It was surreal! Block after block of finished and empty houses, along with half-finished units. There was such a dearth of buyers that sales personnel hung out their "Be Back at 1 PM" signs and never came back for the day. This was during the days of the "Keating Five", the S&L Debacle, and the massive RTC liquidation and auctions. Most of you here are probably too young to remember or were not living in the region to be aware of the extent of the meltdown and dismal results. In many neighborhoods, recovery didn't come until the late '90s!!!
And now they're doing it AGAIN!!! Only this time the scale of the bubble is MUCH LARGER!!!
Seriously, I will not be surprised to see massive out-migration from Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, and the Palm Desert, especially if, as some geologists speculate, the Southwest is in the early phase of a "Mega-Drought" supercycle epoch that could last for centuries, similar to the period during which the Anasazi were displaced en masse from the Southwest, as well as similar conditions that brought the Maya civilization down.
They are ringing (have rung) the bell at the top for Southwest real estate folks! And this bear market could be permanent.
And, yes, FL is at the top of the list, too.
Detroit? It's too late to short that cesspool.
I would put Bend, Medford, and Ashland, OR near the top, as well, as CA and Portland, OR equity has driven house prices to probably 100% overvalued (subject to 50% decline).
This might be a surprise pick, but I would put TX real estate near the top of the short list, as the oil boom is headed for a bust, too, as the US and then global economy shifts into low gear for the rest of the decade or longer.
As to the Insane Diego reference in the post above, San Diego was the bubbliest market in SoCal and is the first to have turned down in real yoy price terms in June, just as occurred in '90. It's over in Insane Diego, amigo, except for the crying.
Boston... everyone is moving out...
"Sarasota/Bradenton....and the rest of the bloated Florida cities...."
I kinda liked the place several years ago, but that was when it was cheap and I was younger and less fatter...daiquiri deck, siesta key, nothing but dunb hot chicks in bikinis with heaving/heavenly breasteses. And, a heluva place to bring up a family! As for jobs, though, unless your a stripper or dealer, good luck! Maybe you can squeeze oranges at Tropicana, or even better- sell real estate!
Loudoun County, Virginia. The Board of Supervisors along with Loundoun County Government Office of Building and Development and the Planning Office. Since they are all in the pockets of developers and corporate homebuilders I would love to short all of them. They are all still arguing about how many thousands of houses they should let profiteers build at a time when nothing is selling.
Right here in Loudoun County is a perfect example of government wonks and elected government official inability to think outside the box. They have been doing it this way for 30 years......by God we are going to continue to do it this way.
I might be a low paid government secretary and farmer but by god I'm no boot licker or ass kisser.
All of California.
mexico
I am going w/ Los Angeles or California for that matter. Why? Not only are these poor souls going to get a nice trim in their home market, but they are going to get hammered with their "investment properties" in places like Phoenix, Austin, Vegas, etc. But hey, the prices were sooo much cheaper in those markets it was a great deal at the time. This is the type of mentality these "investors" have. Its like saying I am going to buy Ford stock because it's a better deal $7/sh vs. Boeing at $80/sh.
I'd look at all the exurban areas in the commuter belts of some of the real incandescent hotspots (SF, Florida) for some real short action.
Nothing loses value faster than a $500K dump in a $250K neighbourhood 1 hours drive from a hot urban market.
Cheers, Haggis
Phoenix, AZ
All of California!
Miami, FL
Ft Lauderdale, FL
Naples, FL
Sarasota, FL
Tampa, FL
The 10,000 condos going up in Nashville Tennessee don't look particularly necessary. All being bought by specs.
Anonymous said...
Beirut???
Sorry sucker, you missed that sweet put option by a few weeks...
Boston...cost of living is insane
Boston. Population loss, busted job market, crummy weather, sky-high cost of living. Is it any wonder people are leaving?
Detroit? They've had approximately ZERO price growth. This isn't about what cities you think suck, its about which ones are going to have price drops.
1. Miami/South Florida
2. Northern Virginia
3. Boston
4. Phoenix & suburbs
5. Inland Empire, CA
6. Arkansas
San Francisco..get out now before the big quake :)
Short any city that is loosing population. Dying cities are not a bargain unless you are retired and don't care.
Phoenix,miami,vegas,naples,sandiego,orangecounty,sacramento,losangeles,d.c.,......opps! You said just one huh?
All of Them!
Greater Boston is in a death spiral of an aging population, insanely high cost of housing, a brain drain of intelligent people leaving the so-called "Athens of America," and social meltdown caused by decades of liberal social engineering. The prices have to drop and soon.
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