Get on record now..
My predictions:
* The Great Housing Bust continues, with median prices in Miami, San Diego, DC, Phoenix, Vegas, Tampa, Naples, Sacramento and Tucson falling by more than 30% from their peaks. The country has seen a median price fall of over 10% from the peak. Millions have defaulted on their loans, foreclosures are rampant, bankruptcies have soared.
* Hedge funds who held the commoditized debt have failed and liquidated, and the stock market has fallen for a third straight year as consumer confidence and spending has dried up, and business profits continue a downward trend.
* The assassination of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in May 2007 is still unsolved, however it is expected to have been an internal Iranian assassin. The agreement on enrichment signed in Spring 2007 still holds. North Korea continues its belligerent, yet harmless stance.
* The Democratic nominee for President, Mark Warner of Virginia, and his VP Barack Obama, have a 2 point lead going into the election versus John McCain and George Allen.
July 06, 2006
It's November 2008... What's the world like, and who will you be voting for?
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25 comments:
Keith:
You're dire predictions may be too linear vis-a-vis collapsing RE valuations and ignore a potential future event predicted by Swantar the transcendental macroeconomist. Swantar points out that rising interest rates being implemented by the BOJ could initiate an unwinding of the multitrillion dollar carry trade, slightly out of phase with the declining real estate asset demand, and causing a massive de novo supply of new "paper" cash (from heretofore virtual or electronic cash) out of derivative-account liquidations and moving into real estate assets like some credit tsunami. RE and precious metals would see spectactular, seemingly paradoxical, price increases in a high interest rate environment, as these assets are viewed as shelters from monetary hyperinflation. This theoretical phenomenom is unprecedented and has been termed a Swantarian Conundrum
Those are well thought out predictions. Warner yes Obama no. He has no gravitas. I think Roberts may be returning and will likely be second to Warner during the primaries. He will be asked to be VP and will turn it down. So he will ask Hillary as insurance against assassination attempts from wingnuts.
President elect Warner announces a 100-day plan to stabilize the economy and is looking forward to working with Congress, now that both houses are under Democrat leadership. The big boys on Wall Street and the money center banks know the jig is up for them and many announce retirement plans.
Warner's plan includes:
1) 100-year, interest only mortgages, insured by Uncle Sam up to $500K
2) A holiday on foreclosures and credit card interest through 2009.
3) Anti-hoarding laws that make non-numismatic transactions in gold or silver subject to a 50% tax.
4) A top income tax rate of 60% for earnings above $150K, and a national sales tax of 5% on all purchases except autos and RE.
5) Media "fairness" legislation that prevents any public broadcast of political analysis or comment without equal time given to an opposing viewpoint. This essentially puts an end to all talking head shows on radio and TV, both left and right.
Obama may lack "gravitas", but he is telegenic and has broad appeal similar to Colin Powell. The Dem's front runner would be a fool not to consider him as VP.
Naw.. it will be Clinton-Pelosi (Team Vagina) heading the dem card to steal the election from George Allen-Lamar Alexander after a recount. Lieberman will drop out of the race as secretly planned (running as independent) one month before the election to give Clinton that final boost.
The problem with such 'filler' questions is that the discussion veers away from housing-related issues.
I love your blog, make no mistake, but such filler questions only detract from the issue at hand - housing bubble.
Obama may lack "gravitas", but he is telegenic and has broad appeal similar to Colin Powell. The Dem's front runner would be a fool not to consider him as VP.
But theres my point Colon Powell actually has substance, so so on telegenic. Obama would just look like Quayle when the debates are televised.
"Obama would just look like Quayle when the debates are televised."
Debates? - LOL! Half the people voting could care less what the candidates say about issues. They simply vote based on appearance. It's the ugly consequence of too broad a democracy.
electritions postponed due to. martian law kicks in. mandarinory inlkisting for all 18 to 40 for min of 2 years. consititusioun suspendead. what follows is entropy of some kind.
"Debates? - LOL! Half the people voting could care less what the candidates say about issues. They simply vote based on appearance. It's the ugly consequence of too broad a democracy......"
Remember Bentsen vs. Quayle. I'm telling you Obama is a liability, I've seen him speak. While charming, does not seem overly sharp or knowledgable.
what's housing going to look like? what's the market going to look like? don't just focus on the prez race HP'ers
October 2008: "On account of alarming intelligence, we have declared the nation to be Code Orange with Code Red in effect in certain major metropolitan areas. The November election has been postponed to until the date that Usama Bin Laden is brought to justice as we have discovered terrorist plots to disrupt our nation on Election Day and contaminate our precious bodily fluids. The majorities of the current Congress will continue to meet in a Secure Unspecified Location, and has recently given by voice vote the repeal of the Posse Comitatus act, and given the President authorization to direct the Treasury to implement taxation and disburse funds as needed without the usual budgetary process politicized by traitorous surrenderCrats.
Former states of California, Washington, Massachussets, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Minnesota have been declared to be 'in rebellion' and the President has invoked his lawful Constitutional powers in the suspension of Habeus Corpus and the assumption of command of their National Guard forces in these U.S. terrories. Claimed Electors from these territories will be prohibited from the next Electoral College meeting, whenever that may be."
I see alot of fires unfortunately. People underwater, new BK laws putting the screws to them.
3) Anti-hoarding laws that make non-numismatic transactions in gold or silver subject to a 50% tax.
Remember.....its only hoarding when someone you don't like has it! Stupid Fuckwad! I'll bury it before I let your ilk get 50%
I remember thinking that Warner was almost as slick as Clinton when he was running for governor of Virginia. I was in the northern Shenandoah Valley for some time during the Spring before that election. Plastered all over the largely conservative Republican counties there were green (John Deere shade) and white "Sportsmen for Warner" signs. Without any legislative record to defend, he managed to appeal to the hunter-friendly, rural and semi-rural voters, and was able to avoid having the NRA endorse his Republican opponent. The org. found both candidates acceptable. He still lost in those Republican counties, but by much less than his predecessors, thereby winning the election when you added in the Democrat strongholds. Slick.
I love your blog, make no mistake, but such filler questions only detract from the issue at hand - housing bubble.
This administration caused this bubble in the first place, the only issue at hand is the denial of it. As far as voting goes..who would want the mess?
Maybe some of these great anonymous posters with their vast wealth and knowledge can rise up and be our next king of states.
PRESS DATE: DECEMBER 2010
President Obama reacted violently to reporters' questions concerning his executive order siezing precious metals of private citizens. "Obama yo mama, bet your ass I'm in charge!" the president exclaimed angrily. At his side was the loyal US Attorny General Al Sharpton who followed up by saying: "We can no longer have the have nots outnumber the haves who have way too much stuff that they got unfairly. We will rebalance the inequitable distribution of the wealth by force in order that the have nots have some of what the haves have too much of. Only then can freedom reign - we must keep hope alive - keep hope alive. Some of you crackers criticize this as theft of private property. But you all need to understand that that we need the stuff, and must take it, which is different from stealing. And don't go buryin' the shit - we gots some atomic powered metal detectors that will locate your ill-gotten booty no matter where you stick it!"
President Rice and VP Watts take advantage of their fillibuster proof advantage in both houses to push through far ranging gaurantees of personal liberties reverseing decades of Democrat errosion. Thus with the economy on track, the budget balanced and world peace they pledge to devote the remaining 3yrs, 11mos, 2wks of their first of many many terms to saving wildlife.
What bugs me about Obama is that he is called the first Black in the Senate. Why isn't he called the 1,432nd White in the Senate?
Are we giving his Black half all the credit? It certainly implies some kind of amazement that a person with the liability of Black lineage could accomplish anything.
liability of Black lineage
wow...what a perspective
You guys have Obama all wrong. He's about as "black" as Tiger Woods. If you think he'll toe the black caucus'/NAACP line of B.S. after the election then you are sadly mistaken.
No matter if it's Hillary or Warner in the top slot, Obama will get them over the top by grabbing plenty of votes from "da hood" and from progressives in the burbs.
Star Jones will be back on "The View"
Spending the last of his political capital, president bush pushes a one time exemption that allows foreign born citizens to become president in 2008 and re-elected in 2012.
The very next day, California's governator anounces he will run for president and soundly thumps the Hillary and Obama on a platform based upon personal responsibility.
The thing with gold confiscation is when FDR did it, the first 5oz was exempt, and so was jewellery.
The reason was the way I see it is, what government in their right mind would risk tresurey agents lives on a population with guns just to get their hands on grannys wedding ring. Aint gonna happen!!
Now confiscating Bill Gates recorded tons of PMs is a sight easier, and as he's rich, nobody gives a fuck, well nobody except maybe Bill.
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