On BubbleTalk, this gem of wisdom:
Not Buying The Bubble said...
It will never drop. You're all crazy. You want a disaster to happen because you missed the boat. So you're looking for any evidence, any at all that you're right.Well it's just not happening.
Saturday, July 08, 2006 2:48:35 AM
July 08, 2006
I'll let the HP'ers respond to this realtor troll comment
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26 comments:
Keep on believing that. You obviously do not understand simple economics. You should start with supply, demand, and equilibrium price. Actually, forget the price. Just focus on supply and demand.
HINT: Look what is happening right now to supply (Up) and demand (down).
if anyone tells me there is no real estate bubble or that they're still bullish on RE, i tell them, that if you really believe that, then go ahead and buy an investment home or two.
It's obvious, this realtor is scared sh*tless, and he should be. We're halfway through summer and listings keep piling up, rates keep going up, stock market is volatile. Wait till fall, when some flippers and sellers decide they can't carry their property albatross till the next home buying season and REO's start to pile up.
All the way down, realtors like this will be screaming, IT'S BOTTOMED OUT, BUY NOW BEFORE IT GOES UP AGAIN, but it won't for many years.
Those who lived through it in 1993-1995 know better
ponzi scheme members hate it when the ponzi scheme is up
but foobeca couldn't agree more - nobody wants inflation except on housing. it's weird.
Real estate will never come down as long as we have deficit spending.
Housing prices HAVE gone down. . .
Of course it depends on where you live, perhaps this guy is in Akron Ohio. . .certainly not South Florida, Phoenix, or San Diego/Riverside County. . .If a place was on the market last year for 500K and this year it is on the market for 450K, THAT IS a price drop. . .I even had to reduce my selling price in May in Northern California by 15K to sell my place. Condos here in downtown SD that were selling for $629K a year ago, are now reduced to 579K and are STILL on the market. . .
Nuttin' bad is ever gonna happen. We can debt our way outta this bubble if everybody will just pull together play along for a few more years. Come on people, can't we keep the game going one more year where I can unload this POS, um, I mean, sell this lovely investment to some other sucker, um, I mean wonderfully smart buyer?
I am a realtor also and posted this on another thread. No predictions, just actual facts, this bust is for real
[QUOTE=scrunchie]
"I sold a 2/2 pre-construction Florida condo in Dec. 04 for $224,900. Last month I sold an identical unit in the same complex for $178,000. During that time other identical 2/2 units sold for as much as $265,000. I sold a 3/2 in the same complex in Nov. 05 for $299,900 and an identical unit sold last week for $185,000. The crash is very real in this particular development."
Doesn't matter what we want. It's going to pop big time regardless.
I did jury duty with realtor three weeks ago. She lives and works in central California and is terrified of her prospects
as a realtor. I guess being in a court room brought out the honesty in her.
God Bless the burst of the Housing Bubble from San Diego to SF to Seattle across middle America up and down the East Coast and let's not forget our friends in Alaska and Hawaii too.
The gov. will have too much unrest on their hands if they don't allow a natural burst of this madness.
The middle class is already stretched to the breaking point over housing costs.
I don't even want to know what this would look like in a few years if RE continued to inflate or stay flat.
A massive, quick 50% or more crash is needed.
And we need it quick before too many more stupid Americans buy more house than they can afford.
This is not a job for the faint-hearted. The bubble's got to burst BIG and it's got to burst NOW.
I seriously doubt this is a realtor troll. When realtors troll, they tend to post comments with a lunatic-level optimism, like "after a few slow quarters, strong demand, immigration, and job growth will keep prices moving up! Take advangage of the market dip and get in on the action! There's never been a better time to buy!"
Seriously, why on earth would a realtor tell people that they've missed the boat? The poster was a troll, yes, but almost certainly not a realtor troll.
I agree. Probably an investor or homeowner, maybe someone who loaded up with a huge mortgage and bought in 2005, and is horrified at the thought that he might be upside down in another 6 months, if he isn't already.
Homeowners in general hate the idea that their homes might be declining in value, especially if they are heavily leveraged. That partly explains the resistance to the bubble burst scenario, even outside the real estate industry.
I would not want to be one of those people that have just bought and are highly leveraged right now, especially in the previous hot markets. You are facing a potential financial loss from which you cannot recover.
Dear Not Buying The Bubble,
I have ample evidence to support our position that there is a Housing Bubble. The evidence includes mountains of economic models, thousands of pages of data, and algorithms created by myself gained from historical housing records dating back to the Ming Dynasty.
I will summarize my argument here: You are a big poo poo head and how dare you disagree with us Housing
Bubble Bloggers. Dissension is not allowed at Housing Panic.
Went to open house today. Was being shown by owner/real estate agent/investor. How many people are seeing homes for sale by realtors?
Wow, so I got 5 seconds of fame on some website ... LOL
You want THE TRUTH???
Actually I am not a realtor, but I think that there will be a small correction, but mostly during the next recession.
But when I mention it to people at work, they totally freak out. So I decided to post like them, to see what kind of comments I get.
So I can use those comments to argue against them next week.
Make sense?
Basically I'm acting as argumenter go-between.
But I still don't think there will be a big crash. Maybe some minor corrections.
But look at those markets people are complaining about. Riverside, San Diego, Minnesota ...
They bounced back bigger and better than ever in 10 years or so.
So what is everybody worried about? Relax, go have a beer, enjoy the summer.
Oh, and nobody got the joke about the NAME ... Not Buying The Bubble
You think I'm buying into this Bubble? Heck no!!!
So while you guys are sitting out, and others are buying the Bubble ...
I bought OIL ...
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Oh, and this is why the bubble WILL NOT pop.
It's taking a breather because house prices are so expensive, but you all seem to be forgetting the real reason real estate is going UP, which is due to LACK OF ADEQUATE SUPPLY.
Yes, we have reached a point where supply has outstripped demand, but that's just because it's too darned expensive compared to incomes.
Doesn't mean there still isn't adequate demand. There are TONS of people in SoCal who want to buy a house still.
Which is why the prices won't drop that much because there is and will continue to be huge demand.
Will prices fall a bit? Yes, maybe a little bit.
But not by the 50% or whatever you people are claiming.
http://www.toacorn.com/news/2006/0209/Front_Page/005.html
Face facts, in the coming decade no one should be investing in anything that can't have a stop loss placed on it, housing as an investment is garbage.
Cluelessness continues.
There is no shortage of housing supply. Supply is not limited by new construction, nor by available land; it's limited by the number of sellers who put their homes on the market--by desire or need-at any given time. For that reason, supply can increase 10X in a single year, as it has in Phoenix.
Demand, by contrast, is limited by affordability. Rising interest rates affect the formulas that qualify buyers; hence, even minor movements upward push millions of buyers out of the market--it doesn't just slightly decrease the amount they can spend.
Housing prices will decline until they reach values supported by fundamentals. That is, 1997 adjusted for inflation, which can be estimated by multiplying a 1997 sales price by 1.2. That represents an easy 50% decline in many markets.
RE: SoldAtThePeak
And the funny thing about that is a 50% reduction around here pretty much means 2003 prices! Yeah can't wait till it happens.
I have some SUNW shares to sell you for $55, a true bargain, just half of the 1999 price. Better get them now before you miss the boat! They'll never fall.
Count me as one Southern Californian who would like to own a home someday. It just won't be for a while. I'm working my ass off and making good money, but still cannot afford to buy home in a manner that makes any economic/financial sense. These creative finance schemes are scary. All said, it's a sad commentary on the state of market here. Honestly, I don't know how the hell any average Joe or Flo in SoCal owns property and can still afford to buy that huge freakin SUV with 25 inch chrome rims.
They rent those rims and bought the H2 with borrowed money. They spend HELOC money to keep up the lifestyle. They run up their credit cards.
It will crash hard.
The gov't better not bail out these fools nor the GSEs.
Hellllllllllloooooooooo
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