I TOLD YOU SO
July 05, 2006
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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15 comments:
yup
The denial keeps me from admiting it.
signed "the world"
Time to change the name of this blog to "Post Bubble Panic". . .
The walking-dead now seem to know it. . .I suppose that is progress.
LMFAO !!!
My neighbors in Mesa ,AZ are still asking 249 K for a 3 bedroom 1200 SQ FT ugly pile of stucco and wood that would'nt make a descent bonfire !
In west Buckeye the earthmovers are all parked next to each other in rows. I would not call it a slow down . I would call it a schreeching halt !
Keith:
A wise man once said: "Self-praise stinks." Of course you were right. So were many millions of others who put 2 plus 2 together when home prices started rising at a per annum rate ten times the rate of increase in personal incomes and GDP. Seeing macroeconomic trends is not difficult for one who is honest and has common horse sense. The hard part is predicting "when" a trend will break and create a watershed.
I sold my home on the North Shore of Long Island at the end of 2003, for a ridiculous profit, convinced that I might have waited too long and would be trapped as the bubble was popping. Well, I was out early, as prices kept climbing at 15% per year for the next two years. Of course, this is the madness of the home-buying hurd enabled by the loosest mortgage lending standards since the roaring twenties. Sure, I knew the whole Ponzi scheme had to collapse like a house of cards - but I didn't know when. Frankly, I'm amazed it went as long and as far as it did. It is going to be a bloodbath for the bubble markets in RE, like Long Island NY. The prices for homes are insanely unaffordable, have no relationship to market fundamentals, and will correct down massively. I'm glad I got out early - better than not at all.
what.....did I miss something?
Is the Dow below 8000?
Are year over year home sale prices lower in 2006 than 2005?
Is Gold above 800?
TO: Long Island out too soon. . .
My favorite Warren Buffet saying, "the reason I am so rich is because I sold too soon."
Now remember everyone, the housing collapse will have nasty fallout - people are already putting off medical visits, etc.(according to Arizona Republic) but being an animal lover, let's all give some of our money to local SPCA's because a lot of people may need to give up their pets and won't have money for pet vet bills.
"I told you so" is not self-praise. It's "I told you so". As did a lot of other people (HP'ers, Robert Shiller, Christopher Thornberg, housingbubble2, bubblemeter, the Economist, etc).
Take "I told you so" as a big middle finger to the angry realtors, flippers and real estate industrial complex members who troll this blog and attack yours truly on a daily basis simply for being the messenger.
Are year over year home sale prices lower in 2006 than 2005?
_______________________
Yes! In Boston! Several Ca counties! This is only the beginning!
what idiot (besides realtors with commissions on the line) look at year over year prices?
do you care what Tide Detergent cost a year ago, or last month?
Do you care what the Lexus SC300 went for a year ago, or last week?
A year ago was a TOTALLY different world, especially in the bubble cities, where the bubble was raging full steam.
Phoenix had 5,000 homes for sale a year ago, and now it's 51,000.
Comprendo?
I still have local friends telling me that housing here in the Boston area will not tank. *shakes head*
what are u telling us,
Take a look at Miami. I'd say the trend is clearly going down the tubes.
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Florida/Miami/
http://tinyurl.com/dbv8m
BubbleShanker - then you are on your way to making millions my friend! Since you know through your research that the DOW is going to tank, then you MUST be fully leveraged to take advantage of this correct? If I had the knowledge that you do, I would:
- sell all my assets
- to use as collateral to get as large a loan as possible
- and use the money to sell call options on DIA
Brilliant! I am jealous of you BubbleShanker.......you hit the lottery!!!
Well for one thing the word is "shekels" and another is quite a few will give MTAF when their over priced shitbox is a millstone around their neck on account of not being able sell it due to it being worth 40% of what they owe on it.
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