HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HousingPanic declares the week of July 10

July 08, 2006

HousingPanic declares the week of July 10 - 17 "Iran and North Korea Week"

After the week is over you'll see why

I would not be long the market this week FYI

28 comments:

Anonymous said...: and we can't do a thing about it

checkmate; July 08, 2006 10:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Just like oil is flowing from Iraq?

In and out of Iraq in 2 weeks?

By the way Iran is much much bigger and more powerfull then Iraq.; July 08, 2006 11:06 PM
Anonymous said...: We bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, they stop exporting oil and closes the Strait of Hormez. We cut off their gasoline imports. We have a 700M bbl strategic petroleum reserve. Iran has no gasoline reserves. After a couple of weeks, Iran capitulates and oil flows again.
-----------------------

Oh really? And Iran orders the Mahdi army in massive jihad in Iran and Afghanistan, as well as Hezbollah et al blowing up trains, planes and automobiles in USA. 20-30 soldiers per day killed, 100 wounded with injuries which will cost the VA jillions for life.

Gasoline is $7-8/gallon.

And then, in a year, they have all their nuclear facilities back on line (they are very heavily set underground---impenetrable except to large nuclear weapons. They can withstand a dead-on hit with a Hiroshima-sized weapon.), and the US is losing a retreat in Iraq.

They're back where they were before, except they've abandoned the non-proliferation treaty and are making bombs full speed. Even the pro-democracy pro-western parties are in favor of nuclear weaponry.

Iran surely will not capitulate without a massive land invasion and US has no ability to do this now.; July 08, 2006 11:07 PM
Anonymous said...: No, we wring our hands and do nothing for another decade. Progressives tell us that a popular revolt will end the reign of the Mullahs, any day now. It won't happen of course, and like NK, eventually Iran will get a few nukes and join the untouchable club.

And all that talk about a New Persia and reconquest of Spain and France is just talk. If only they would meet with Barbara Walters and let their women wear thongs, everything would be OK.

Yeah, let's just ignore them - it's none of our business if the gentle, peace-loving tribes of Iran want nukes...; July 08, 2006 11:21 PM
Anonymous said...: israel cannot deal with it.; July 08, 2006 11:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Well, you all are just worrying too much. We have a very fine leader (and man of God), George W. Bush, and along with his Sectretary of Defense, Mr. Rumsfeld, I am sure they will wisely handle this problem for the best.; July 08, 2006 11:38 PM
Anonymous said...: love the picture of the n.k. nutjob on the mountain. i think his people are taught that he was born on the mountain and his birth was welcomed with a rainbow and a new star in the heavens

gee, i think i've kinda heard that story before

but no wisemen?; July 08, 2006 11:56 PM
Anonymous said...: "Who cares if they have a big army. What's important today is air superiority and technology, both of which we have a huge advantage in."

Important for what, exactly?

Air superiority and technology seems to allow you to get "halfway" in.

There is no doubt that the US could drop bombs on whatever targets it wants, probably with little aircraft losses.

But then, what?

It is indeed quite possible to build facilities, as Iran (and even Iraq) did which are essentially impervious to conventional weaponry, including the best US bunker-busters. This is a matter of physics and numerical computation, not air superiority, and the Iranians know the laws of physics as much as we do.

Those tapes that Saddam made in the middle of the war? It's now been discovered where they were made---directly in central Baghdad, underneath facilities that the USAF had repeated direct strikes upon.

The bunker was entirely undamaged. It was eventually captured of course by swarming ground troops. That's the only way you can really get people out.

It is quite possible to make facilities impervious to all but the largest and most precise nuclear attacks as well. Both US and USSR missile silos were so constructed---if you missed by more than 150 feet or so they were fine. And they had the significantly more difficult problem of having to open up quickly right after an attack.

Of course, the ground and people above this would be incinerated for miles around, but the facility would still be there.

This is all a matter of accepted experimental physics which is well studied and validated. Exactly how deep and how to construct a bunker to withstand a certain size weapon is well known.; July 08, 2006 11:56 PM
blogger said...: surprised nobody complained this isn't about the bubble

but oh it is about the bubble - the end of it; July 08, 2006 11:57 PM
Anonymous said...: i have tonns of GLD and XOM..and lots of keith putz; July 09, 2006 12:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Who cares about the aftermath? Nuke NK and Iran and then let's kick out the pansy liberals in this country.; July 09, 2006 12:34 AM
Anonymous said...: This whole discussion only reinforces Keith's original point -- the risks here to stablity and the economy are huge.; July 09, 2006 12:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Iran No problem
When you have the Perfect Plan all you have to do is repeat it.

Slam Dunk
Shock and AWE
Disband the Army
Looting
Torture
Rape and Murder a few Civilians.

The Oil will flow.
Peace and Democracy will Reign.
No more Terrraaa

Easy
Just like fipping houses!!!; July 09, 2006 1:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Iran No problem
When you have the Perfect Plan all you have to do is repeat it.

Slam Dunk
Shock and AWE
Disband the Army
Looting
Torture
Rape and Murder a few Civilians.

The Oil will flow.
Peace and Democracy will Reign.
No more Terrraaa

Easy
Just like fipping houses!!!; July 09, 2006 1:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Turn 'em both into giant lakes.; July 09, 2006 1:37 AM
Roccman said...: Hey Foolbeca

SPR = 700,000,000 bbl

US daily consumption = 25,000,000 bbl

That's 28 days...hmmmmmmmmmmmm

I say $20 gas right around the corner; July 09, 2006 1:57 AM
Anonymous said...: AFTR (Atheists for the Rapture)
Says

Lakes Good Idea

No Repercussions
No Problems

The other one billion people will not even notice.

Are you on Rusmfields Staff ?

Working undercover for
the Scarecrow ?

(Scarecrow code name for POTUS)

Ideas like yours should be reviewed at the highest levels.; July 09, 2006 1:57 AM
Anonymous said...: So bombing iran and nk would not result in the market price for oil going thru the roof?
Or does th US gov nationalize the oil supply and fix prices?
Or does such military action hasten our financial collapse?
If its such a no brainer, I think Bush would have done it by now.; July 09, 2006 3:54 AM
Anonymous said...: The price of oil would go up, but at least you'd be able to get it. It doesn't matter how cheap something is if you can't get it.

We can keep punting the football down the field, but eventually we're going to have to deal with Iran.; July 09, 2006 4:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Seems to me the latest Korea launches put even more pressure on the Iran front. Testing your first long range ICBM announcing it can reach America and then doing it on the forth of July is one big FU to Bush. Makes me wonder if Bush will give the order to carpet bomb Iran to deal with them and send a message to n. korea. Masses of iranian soldiers aside I don't think the iranian economy is very stable right now. We could definately bring them to their knees and it would set them back decades. The fallout in Iraq and internationally is the problem. Dont forget the energy deals china signed with iran recently. Not that we would hurt the precious oil fields anyway...; July 09, 2006 4:32 AM
Anonymous said...: I predict the next bubble is in underground nuke shelters. Let's go hire David Learah for our cause.

Fallout shelters for everyone!; July 09, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: foobeca saidThe cost of inaction is going to be higher. We can't allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. The consequences would be distastrous.

This is ridiculous. Iran is not threatening anybody. If they get a bomb, it is to raise the stakes against a US attack on their country. Iran is not going around lauching military attacks on anybody.

If Iran could make a crude bomb, it is another whole matter to weaponize it ie install the warhead on a reliable working missile. The Iranian Prez is a radical but not stupid enough to attack Israel and it's 200 nukes. If you want to get worried about something, envision our "partner" Pakistan with dozens of weaponized nukes and a surging insurrection that aims to unseat our puppet Mushareff ie Islamic Bomb.

And speaking of your ideas on NK. The problem there is that everything is underground- much of it in hard rock. In the event of attack, NK has 10,000 artillery pieces that have Seoul within range- and can level the city in a day or two. And those crude NK nukes are deliverable to SK by any number of means since the distances are so short.

As for the 700mbarrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is not intended to be drained dry in elective wars with minor nations- it is to be in reserve for national emergencies and a major war would be top of the list.

Looks like GOP/Fox News is trying to push the panic buttons like always.; July 09, 2006 6:54 AM
Anonymous said...: I still raise the question again: this is a housing bubble blog, and it is cool that we talk about geopolitical stuff, but why, why...are 95% of the HPers left wing, liberal dems? Very curious, and I have some theories.; July 09, 2006 1:29 PM
degoboy said...: NK long range(ICBM) missle test a flat failure. US not at all in danger of a NK missle hitting west coast. Problem is NK will work out the problems and eventually get the darn thing to work, and when that happens and they can fit a mianaturized Nuke bomb on top of it then the US should worry. This is many years away. NK has a hugh chemical/biological WMD capability:every fourth artillery shell in NK arsenal is WMD fitted.
NK intermediate-range (1500 klometer) missles well advanced and pose threat mainly to Japan/south Korea/US okinawan bases/taiwan. There is a queation whether NK actually has nuclear weapons but they have enough weapons-grade plutonium for maybe 6-12 bombs and can sell them on the black market to terrorists.
NK -Iran are active partners in selling/aquiring/exchanging ballistic long -range missle and WMD/nuclear technology. Iran is a tough nut-you go after Iran and oil shoots up to $100/200 per barrel instantly. Iran can close the straits of hormuz in a split second, thus causing western economies to collapse. Problem is US has very little easy access to friendly sources of oil overseas, and US cannot as yet drill domestically in Arctic refuge nor off shore in many areas. US must carefully weigh it's options over Iran in order to safeguard the strategic Middle east oil flow.; July 09, 2006 5:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Once again, any country that tries to protect itself from being attacked by the U.S. is then seen as a "threat" to the U.S. Give it a rest!

Panicearly - I love you; July 09, 2006 6:09 PM
Anonymous said...: "why...are 95% of the HPers left wing, liberal dems?"

why, I dunno...maybe we don't consume the main steam media crap as served, and actually THINK critically

not that I think the Dems have all, or any, of the answers, but we've had 6 years to see what the other side serves up

the whole housing bubble was created by the credit bubble which was created to enable Bush to (just barely and with some Diebold assistance) get re-elected

so now we have houses at 2x the correct price and a dangerous, freedom eroding dunce as President

yep..that conservative thing has worked out just great!; July 09, 2006 9:58 PM
Bill said...: HPers left wing, liberal dems? Very curious, and I have some theories.

I am far from a left wing or a right wing, more in the middle like a reality wing.; July 09, 2006 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: I have decided that Housing Panic is a dumb blog.

I mean, give me a break, your panic is not happening.

The week of July 10-17 ... nothing is going to happen this week.

Relax ... drink a beer ... chill out.; July 11, 2006 12:56 AM