Gee, that was a tough one to predict... Not.
What other companies, besides the obvious ones (builders, lenders, pmi insurance) will get killed during the downturn?
Full disclosure - I (happily) own HD puts (shorts)
July 05, 2006
Anyone spot a trend with Home Depot's stock price?
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is "the banker" dead? I sure hope not
maybe he just fled
I can't wait for the last showing of "American weekend".
"American Weekend" is the inspiring story of a middle class American family with 2 kids, a dog, a Silverado and an Expedition SUV, living in the suburbs, who spends their lovely weekends shopping at Home Depot for a perpetual home renovation project. Watch as Al and Carol rip out their 2 year old cabinets, replacing with the trendiest current fashions and granite countertops. The story is energizing watching Al and Carol perpetuate the American dream and plow their cash-out refi money back into their home so they can become millionaires in a few short years.
Watch the special fourth-of-July episode where Al and Carol take their kids camping, aptly called "Yuppies in the Sticks". That episode will show the kids having fun sitting in a camper paid for with money made off the renovation project, watching television and sitting in the air conditioning all day. At night the kids will snuggle up under the air conditioner watching "Ernest goes to camp" on the television. Al and Carol will spend the evening looking at Better Homes and Gardens trying to get an idea for the next episode of "American Weekend".
Sorry, but I doubt it has anything to do with the housing market. Home Depot's stock is tanking because the new CEO from GE doesn't have a clue about running a retail business. Customer service at HD is a joke and as they tighten the screws on employees, it will only get worse.
looks better than AAPL, loser
AAPL only down 37%+ from the high right. Guess that's " a long term holding" huh Keith.
not only is aapl a long term hold, but I'm up over 100% on it
I LOVE AAPL
wow. Maybe we should start a blog about how you didn't sell it at $86, and why you are holding it now at $56. This, even with long term capital gains tax rates at 15%, and $8 stock brokerage. You still held on as it fell over a third. I thought you were a hotshot trader. You pick on people for not trading their houses like this, so I am coming at you for doing the same.
the point is valid about not selling appl at the top, but I believe appl to be undervalued based on sales, PE, vision and pipeline. I can not say the same about housing, where you can rent a house for 1/3 of the cost of owning it. I'll hold aapl until I retire - say 10 or 20 years. And unlike housing, it's not leveraged, and it doesn't represent 50%+ of my investment portfolio as does most folks house.
I'm buying more aapl, I'm definitely not buying more housing.
And if there's one thing I'm not it's a hot shot trader. I make about 2 to 4 trades a month if that, and my positions are buy and hold almost always (aapl, sbux, ebay, cop, ewc, ewj). fun money goes into gld and shorting few real estate industrial complex picks. real money stays in 5% hsbc savings cash.
Going back to about 1980 or so AAPL has a long history of huge price swings...10 to 80 or so in most cases.
It is now heading to 10 I'm afraid. Great company and I love it's products and design! That has NOTHING to do with the stock price however.
It's overpriced and the IPOD has seen it's best days for sales growth. The market is becoming saturated and with the tough economic times ahead people are going to have to cut back on the unnecessary stuff....like a 3rd IPOD.
Take your profit Keith.
I'd have thought it unnecessary to explain what a put is to the sophisitcated readers of this blog, but had to chuckle at your use of 'shorts', seeing as how that's precisely where real estate is going to take it this year and next.
yeah, that whole ipod thing was just a fad. there aren't billions more people on the earth who want one - everyone who wanted one bought one already
yup. no future there.
not saying IPODs are going to stop selling; I'm saying the GROWTH in IPOD sales are likely to disappoint the markets VERY high expectations...and that will result in a lower stock price
----
btw, this is on Barron's Online tonight:
Apple: Apple’s new product releases seem to be on schedule, “but do not line up with more ambitious investor expectations.” She notes that expectations have been for a major revamp of the Nano in the third quarter, along with a video iPod refresh, and a launch of a full-screen video iPod in the fourth quarter. But she says a 2006 launch of the full-screen iPod “will not happen” this year, “and contrary to Street consensus, may not actually have been scheduled for 2006 for quite some time.” Conigliaro expect the full-screen iPod to launch in 2007’s first half, but probably no in the first quarter. She also says the supply chain is “locked and loaded” for an August/September ship date for the new Nano, and a September/October ship for the new video iPod. “Even the supply chain is beginning to sense that iPods are not as hot as before as they face forecats with more variability,” she writes.
Meanwhile, she says that Apple is “actively engaged” with the supply chain on a cell phone. “There is no scheduled launch date, but based on triangulated lead times, we guess its launch to be at least [the 2007 second quarter.] There are clearly hurdles still to be addressed, including with the communications technology, but out clear sense is tha tApple is trying to break new ground with its advanced smart phone functionality.”
Conigliaro trimmed her estimates for Apple to $2.08 a share from $2.12 for fiscal 2006, and to to $2.56 to $2.58 for 2007; she says that for the short-term, the bias in the stock “is still downward.”
Too many Harley's bought with HELOC free money, buying leap puts on HDI.
Retstern
The economy will take a huge dive with the housing bubble imploding. The REITs have had a historic bull run which will come to an end soon. Lots of REITs space has been leased by mortgage related companies which will fold in droves.
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"uknowwhoiyam said...
Home Depot and Lowe's should do very well if - as many here predict - a recession hits."
Why? I don't mean to act stupid, but I put two additions on my house back in 2000 and practically lived at Home depot for the better part of a year.
It is located in a nearby city, and was the ONLY game in town at the time.
Stopped by there last week only because we had a church function way down in Baltimore city
and it was close to where we stopped for dinner on the way home.
I almost had a stroke when I saw what the prices were for the most basic of building supplies: 2x4’s, electric wire, water pipe, sheet rock, paint, etc. And that’s with a new Lowe’s 5 miles down the same road! Now HD has competition! The parking lot, which was always packed whenever I was there before, no matter what day of the week, or what time, was virtually empty. Even the wife commented how dead Home Depot was, and she never when in that much, and she noticed that the lot
was nearly deserted. We had to drive by the new Lowe’s on the way home, and that parking lot wasn’t much better. It would have cost me 200-300% more, not counting labor, to have put on my additions at these currant prices. So when housing tanks (among other things,) and causes a recession, HD and Lowe’s will do very well? Please explain?
With nobody able to afford a house, how will HD and Lowe’s sell over priced building supplies and stay afloat?
GM and Ford go under and gone. Yugo and other cheap cars make a real comeback.
In addition to the usual suspects of shorting candidates, I suggest the consumer discretionary stuff that sells yuppie fluff for home "owners" like Crate and Barrel and Bed, Bath and Beyond. It won't be the high end to be hurt, nor will it be Walmart.
Similar topic: Anybody know what the secret strategy here is? http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060705/clw501.html?.v=51 I'd love to see a post or two!
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