Post any interesting article links here, and have fun with the HousingPanic nominations below. Back Saturday morning (unless something breaks and I can find a net cafe)
I need a guest editor - post here if you want to be considered (Sorry Osman - no R.E.I.C. members!)
Auf Wiedersehen
June 28, 2006
Off to Munich for a couple of days
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
31 comments:
oh, darn... :)
Eins, zwei, gsuffa.
Economics tells us that a crash is coming, when exactly, no one knows. I do know that in the area I'd like to buy (pasadena, ca - chapman woods) there are no foreclosures and probably won't be. guess i'm out of luck........any hp-er's live there??
What do you think of the risk index for cities across the nation from PMI Mortgage Insurance? I am not surprised of the risk index for cities in California. But, Phoenix has a low risk compared to many other cities, only 16.5%.
From the USA Today,
Housing market: Risky business?
As housing prices rise at a record-setting pace, the risk of a price decline in hot markets is rising. The chance of a price decline in the next two years for the 50 largest housing markets in the U.S., according to PMI Mortgage Insurance:
Rank City Risk index
1 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. 59.9%
2 Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 58.9%
3 Boston-Quincy, Mass. 58.8%
4 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. 58.8%
5 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. 58.5%
6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 58.3%
7 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif. 58.2%
8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. 57.5%
9 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass. 56.8%
10 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. 56.0%
11 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. 55.9%
12 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass. 53.7%
13 Edison, N.J. 53.6%
14 New York-Wayne-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. 49.8%
15 Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 48.1%
16 Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa. 45.9%
17 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. 44.1%
18 Washington -Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md. 43.1%
19 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. 35.9%
20 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. 35.5%
21 Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich. 33.7%
22 Baltimore-Towson, Md. 30.7%
23 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. 29.4%
24 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. 18.4%
25 Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, Mich. 17.9%
26 Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. 17.5%
27 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 16.5%
28 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 15.3%
29 Denver-Aurora, Col. 13.0%
30 Philadelphia, Pa. 12.7%
31 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill. 11.2%
32 St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. 10.9%
33 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. 10.8%
34 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore.-Wash. 10.8%
35 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. 10.1%
36 Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. 9.3%
37 Austin-Round Rock-Texas 8.7%
38 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C. 8.3%
39 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, Texas 8.0%
40 Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas 7.1%
41 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn. 6.9%
42 Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 6.8%
43 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio 6.5%
44 Columbus, Ohio 6.5%
45 San Antonio, Texas 6.4%
46 Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. 6.1%
47 Memphis, Tenn. 5.8%
48 Indianapolis, Ind. 5.7%
49 Pittsburgh, Pa. 5.7%
50 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA. NA1
Average 27.8%
1 - The PMI Market Risk Index is unable to evaluate the effect of catastophic events such as hurricanes so there is no score for the New Orleans market.
Source: PMI Mortgage Insurance
For all of the bloging that has occured on this board I simply do not see the average Joe on the street starving and a total economic meltdown going on. You can throw all of the links you want at me about record foreclosures, bankrutcy, unemployment, dollar devaulation, etc....but it is not keeping people from going on with their lives of consumption and debt.
I am of course playing devil's advocate here and do not mean to come off as someone who discounts this bubble and the impact it will or might have to the average Joe. The economy seems to be moving along fine becasue one of the leading indicators is the job market and it seems as if qualified people are finding work. In fact, one of my relatives who is 23 and fresh out of college with a masters in accounting with no job experience except for a 3 month internship at $9 per hour landed a job that pays $48 grand per year with full benefits. She was also offered another job for $43K that she declined. If the economy was set to meltdown I doubt these private accounting firms would be paying fresh college grads this kind of money because their revnues would be in the crapper since their income depends directly on how much business their clients are doing.
The massive speculatory bubble and its horrid offshoot, the Real Estate are near the end!!
Sorry my man, I am going hafta pick on you. You are looking at the economy RIGHT NOW and thinking that means something, it doesn't.
What WE are talking about is the economy 1-6(yes, the bust may happen in July now) months down the line AFTER the massive speculatory bubble has burst and the liquidity has completely dried up. I could care less you friend got a low salaried position RIGHT NOW. Simply could care less. It takes a couple of months for a slowdown and crash to move through the system.
Take 1929, the Super Recession of 29-33 began when? December 1929? Nope. Augest 1929, 2 months before the great bubble crash. Shocking? Unemployment rate was only 3.2% as well.
We are dealing with lags, it is machine slowing down, the hum getting quieter.
You will learn ALOT about speculative bubble crashes that you didn't get to understand after the dot.com bubble bust.
Israel expands Gaza offensive.
This does not help.
Kleif, Its time to come home.
I agree that there is always a lag between cause and the effect but we have heard it so many times before in the recent past. The housing meltdown has been going on for over 6 months at least.
Even the energy prices soaring were supposed to destory the economy but they did not. Gasoline and electricity have increased something like over 150% in the past 2-3 years. The lower wage workers that make min. wage were supposedly going to have to pick between gasoline or food. It never happend. We are at roughly $3 a gallon but I don't read about mass gasoline theft and the pressures it is putting on the lower income homes. The media will take one story about someone who pumped and did not pay (as it occured even with 99 cent gas) and blow it out of proportion.
With my earlier post I make not of that relative because her job is in accounting. Their clients really can not hide data or present phoney data to them without being found out. If they know someone is broke and can't pay them for services they will cut and run. Despite this fact business seems to be moving along; so far.
She is becoming accustomed to blowing money on expensive lunches, clothes, etc...and this worries me. She was considering a new car with a payment and I talked her our of it since her current car is like new and paid for.
Kieth,
Good piece in current issue of Barrons (first few pages). Also, what did you notice in Paris? Lots of vacancies and for sale placards?
Re PMI risk above:
what are they basing their #'s on -past delinquincies?? how did they determne those #'s?
The massive speculatory bubble and its unhumane offshoot, the Real Estate bubble are near the end!!!!
Housing usually takes 12 months after "decelerating"(slowing appreciation) before it "busts". We have had 6-8 months of rising mad inventory along with overcapacity. The end has come!!!!
It will be like a market in Augest 19 up 5% on the year, by October 1st, DOWN 15% and falling. That is a bust. Overall, the RIC will decay for a long period of time, but a period that signifies the bust to depreciation is seeable in these markets. When the majority have markets have busted, the "overall" bubble has busted in the vast bubble markets around the world. The Northeastern bubble appears at that tipping point. The S.Florida one is probably right behind. Lets say by September, they blow, by November the Arizona/Colorado bubbles blow. Overall bust with the rest to follow. People will panic, Stock Markets will crash around the world. My guess at one of Bernanke's meetings during the rest of this year, he will hear a incredible "boom", he and his banker associates will look out the window seeing people drowning in liquidity as it is being flushed down the toilet. What a event it will be.
Prey for a hard landing my friend. Hope that prices stagnate over the next few years while inflation catches up and "smoothly" get back with fundamentals, but be warned, this "bubble" was not created with human rationality, it will probably not end rationally either. It will be step down(June was a very nice one thank you), step down, step down, crash!!
We are so close to the tipping point. I can almost touch it!!!
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0628home-prices28-ON.html
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/26/real_estate/days_on_market/index.htm?cnn=yes
Stuck! Homes sit longer on the market
It's taking longer to sell a house these days. Is this another sign that the boom is over?
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
June 27 2006: 5:28 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The tell-tale sign of a stagnating real estate market? When homes for sale start lingering - and that's exactly what real estate brokers and other industry watchers say they're seeing now.
The National Association of Realtors does not maintain national time-on-market figures. But inventory - the number of homes for sale - spiked 37 percent for the 12 months through April 30, the most recent data available.
At the same time, the rate of sales has slowed, so that there is now 6 months worth of supply, up from 4.1 months a year earlier.
All that supply means homes are sitting around longer and that sellers are asking more than buyers are willing to pay -- an indication that prices may have to come down.
"Sellers are in denial, and there is a rising disconnect with the buyers," said Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser in New York. "Until sellers get the message, you'll see a drop in the number of transactions."
Philadelphia has seen only a modest run-up in time-on-market from about 23 days last year to a still low 33 today. But the city's inventory has grown from nearly 21,000 last year to more than 36,000 today, a more than 50-percent jump.
"The sales pace is identical, but inventory is way up," says Harry Caparo, who runs Coldwell Banker Preferred in Philadelphia. "Time-on-market is going to start to rise."
Two markets
The cool or steady markets seem to be maintaining their equilibrium. David Barnes, a broker in Nashville, Tennessee, says time-on-market there has risen modestly this year to around 75 days from 65 days.
Carolyn Heimlinger, a broker in Des Moines, says the figure there is about 82 days, up from 75 days a year ago. Prices have flattened but not dropped. "Where I see concessions is new constructions," says Heimlinger. "Developers now offer rebates and free upgrades."
In Charlotte, N.C., Wallace Perry, president of Coldwell Banker United for the area, says time-on-market hasn't changed much, at 85 days to 90 days. "It's a very good sign that the market here is holding steady."
But in once superheated markets, things have gotten tougher.
In Hanover, New Hampshire, broker Ned Redpath reports a "drastic" increase in time-on-market.
All through the 2000s, New Hampshire averaged double-digit price increases and about 60 to 70 days on market. Now Redpath estimates average time-on-market at 125 days. He expects price changes to soon reflect that.
"The longer a listing is on the market," he says, "the more the price will come down."
In once white-hot Napa, California, Coldwell Banker broker Doug Fowler reports an increase to between 60 days and 90 days, where they once were a week or two. He thinks the long-term prospects for Napa are fine, but the area could see short-term adjustments.
Boston time-on-market has gone from 52 to 58 days, according to Susan Hsu, a RE/MAX broker.
In Phoenix, according to Valley Wide Homes broker Ron Wilczek, time on the market was often less than a week in 2005. Now it's approaching 60 days.
And in Miami, the time-on-market has lengthened to between 30 and 40 days from about 20 just a few weeks ago, according to Mario Tome, of Greater Miami Realty.
All this is evidence that the real estate boom may have run its course in many hot markets. At the very least, sellers will have to set their prices very carefully if they want to move their properties quickly and avoid long months of having their houses spending time-on-market.
I live out in the country where there are plenty of $10 per hour workers. These people are getting squeezed. The prices are going up and their wages are not. Food is up. Gas is up. Cigs are up (these people all seem to smoke despite the high cost). J6P is hurting. Most J6Ps are in debt and the price of debt is going up. They are not saving.
I think things are hanging on a thread and that thread is frayed.
I came across a house listing in Surprise, AZ (near Phoenix), with a price reduction of over 25% from April 2006 comps.
http://tinyurl.com/f3r8s
I love how stupid sellers are. They hold their prices firm while the inventory all around them is increasing, but just as importantly, with rates going higher and higher they don't even realize that the "payment is all I care about" crowd who can afford their overpriced POS is getting smaller. And now here come the foreclosures you'll have to compete against whaaaa ha ha ha!
The massive speculatory bubble and its "homie" the Real Estate bubble are near death!!!!
Some bubbles are going down quicker than others. The Northeastern bubble and Arizona bubble may have bust. The S.Florida bubble(which I have personal knowlege of concerning a homebuilder friend of mine just went brankrupt, poor guy!!) had a awfull June and may bust in July. Others are lagging behind still giving the illusion of a "hot market". When the RIC has more bubbles pop, especially the bigger ones that had the most speculation, showing a national slump, that is the Real Estate bubble popping as it WILL drag on the economy helping to soften the bubbles for popping and deflation. If the massive speculatory bubble busts overall, then a worldwide crash is in the offering as liquidity completely dries up most likely allowing Helicopter Ben to drop his bussells of dollars. We will know by December IMO.
I have a question. I pretty much follow everything and understand the concepts discussed (I've learned a lot in the last few months) but I'm not sure about something I've seen several comments refer to here: Liquidity.
What is this exactly? (refering to several postings like the following: '...AFTER the massive speculatory bubble has burst and the liquidity has completely dried up.'?
Is this $ available for lending?
Liquidity is 'The ability to convert an asset to cash quickly'.
In your context is referred to the ability to not sell one's house fast (as it once was).
The caveat here is that it could sell quickly if priced right.
The massive speculatory bubble and its phoney buddy, the Real Estate bubble are near collapse!!!!
Yes, though with the banking system following bad practices for the last several years, they are open to collapse ala 1930 which was the true trigger for the Great Depression. If the banks collapse again after a major financial panic, liquidity will be completely dried up, leaving assets like housing which have crashed. Worse case possiblity, but due to our excesses, a possiblity. Shame on us.
I've been wondering about the 'tipping point,' too. I am reminded of the Federal Reserve bank's role as being 'lender of last resort.' They can coin money and give it to any bank, as long as they want to!
This is a little like banks lending to people regardless of ability to pay!
It keeps the economy going, and going, and going. But when it's finally time to pay the piper, you get 'zugswang,' the Fed can choose deflation, OR hyperinflation. ONLY.
That point may not arrive until next year, when I think 1 trillion of ARMs resets.
But, maybe it'll happen in September.... who knows?
It will happpen, and soon. Months, at the outside.
Ben
This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my automobile insurance association site.
Have a great week!
Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my atlanta bankruptcy info site.
Have a great week!
Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my atlanta bankruptcy and structured settlement site.
Have a great day!
Hi Friend! You have a great blog over here!
Please accept my compliments and wishes for your happiness and success!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my australia bad credit loan personal site.
Have a great day!
A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my average credit card debt site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.
I am here because of search results for blogs with a related topic to mine.
Please,accept my congratulations for your excellent work!
I have a stock data feed site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!
Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my startup commercial financing site.
Good luck!
Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please make a visit to my business car insurance site.
Good luck in your endeavors!
This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my series ee savings bonds site.
Have a great week!
This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my series ee savings bonds site.
Have a great week!
Post a Comment