June 07, 2006

Gold


So we ran quick from $400 to $730. Now we're back to $630 and stuck in a trading range. Ben's talking tough, the dollar is holding steady, inflation is flaring up, but can Ben shoot it down? Will a worldwide recession dampen demand, or will it make gold more attractive as a safe store of value?

Lots of questions short term for gold. I still believe long term that the dollar has to drop, inflation will roar, and Gold will see $1000 before it sees $500.

I think too that the hot money is now flushed out of gold. But owning it isn't for the faint of heart.

Other thoughts? Should we be buying more, or should we be getting out? No sacred cows here, make your best case.

74 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, folks!
Regarding price of gold (POG) - it's not straight move since central banks playing games. They lease gold to dump the price, but it works only without physical delivery.

If everybody took physical delivery the POG would be in four digits now.
So, what's we can do? Take physical and keep it until SHTF.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Keith, I dont call "crashing" from 730 to 630 a "trading range". If gold were a house, in your book it would be crashing. Have fun in your bubble, bubble boy.

Anonymous said...

Buy physical, and I'm not talking Good delivery bars either unless you happen to be called Rothschild and are a bijillionaire!!

Go down the market and try liquidate a 100oz bar, and if you go to the bank the taxman will take a humungous slice out of it.

Someone posted an article not long ago about Argentina, and he said he wishes he had bought a load of old rings etc, as the street traders only gave you the 9/10ct gold price regardless of purity.

Now I buy mostly silver, but do buy gold in small denominational coins and rings. Now the thing with used wedding rings is that unless it is a family heirloom, there isn't a woman on the planet that will wear a wedding ring that belonged to your previous Mrs. Consequently they sell for scrap (and sometimes less) so are a very cost effective way to invest. Not only this, but in the gold confiscation of the 30s, it was only bullion that was taken, jewellery was exempt.

Gold is gold whichever way you look at it. Tour the pawn shops with a wodge of cash, and buy all they have, and you'll get a good price as they have stuff they can't sell, and to get a return they sell it scrap for well below market value.
The thing with the jewellery exemption is if a load of rich bastards have their assets stripped, those without don't care.
If they'd tried to take the recently widdowed Aunt Agatha's wedding ring etc, there'd have been rioting in the streets!!

John Polomny said...

"Lots of questions short term for gold. I still believe long term that the dollar has to drop, inflation will roar, and Gold will see $1000 before it sees $500."

Agree 100%. Bernanke can blather on all he wants about fighting inflation but one thing is certain. In a social democracy all roads lead to inflation. Ignore the short term price gyrations and buy the dips.

Anonymous said...

As for the volatilic trading range of PMs, the fear index needs to ratchet up a tad. There's a shitload in the pipeline of war, inflation, oil shortage, housing and SM crash etc, and any one of these taking hold will send the fear index skyward.
Money will flood into easily transported hard assets like PMs, uncut gemstones (not just diamonds) and with demand comes a rise in price, simple economics.

Anonymous said...

I couldn't care less if the price goes down in fiat dollars....

I love the feeling of a gold sovereign in my hands....beats paper money any day.

Anonymous said...

I am buying 1 oz coins here but am hoping that the price doesn't drop. these coins seem pretty liquid but there is a premium on buying them of about $35 over spot and selling is about 2% less. They do not need assay and the little store that sells them for cash also buys them - for cash.

Might be handy if SHTF. Just squirrel them away somewhere safe and keep quiet about having them.

Hope the price doesn't crash long term. Wish I had bought a pallet of copper Romex wire 2 years ago.

The Thinker said...

Investing in gold is not for the inexperienced, unsophisticated or faint of heart. The casual investor would be well advised to stay away.

Anonymous said...

"This is gold, Mister Bond. All my life I've been in love with its colour, its brilliance, its divine heaviness...
I welcome any enterprise which will increase my stock, which is considerable."



Gold is eternal, lustrous, inert, most maleable, ancient, heralded, biblical and rare. Gold's price in worthless paper dollars has little to do with the constant and fixed measure of tangible wealth that gold is. The dollar price of gold is a one dimensional index of the confidence in the fiat dollar. To the bulk of the world's population, and through all of history, gold is understood to be a true store of wealth, and is not to be confused with the US dollar, an intrinsically worthless promissary note no more valuable than the receipt for your shirt at the dry cleaners.

If you have gold, you have purchasing power that no government can steal through inflation and taxation.

Rob Dawg said...

Shiny yellow commodity with several useful industrial and commercial uses. Formerly used as money.

Anonymous said...

With regard to PMs and the need for "Assaying", (it's my view so take that as you will) is only worth doing if you're selling/buying big lumps of the stuff.
I bought some suspect kilo bars of Indian silver, (which turned out to be fine) by drilling them to satisfy myself they weren't lead cored.
You can buy a testing kit (for little money and is pocket sized) with solutions that will tell you (within reason)the relative purity of the PMs you buy.
You dont need to drill small rings and such as a a few strokes of a file and a dab of solution will tell you if it's kosher or not.
It's not rocket science, but as always caveat emptor, as once the price of anything shoots up, there'll be someone trying to palm off shite to the unwary.
A little advice I will offer is this, If something seems too good to be true it rarely is, and it's almost impossible to con an honest man!!

Anonymous said...

Gold saw a 50% haircut in the 70's before it ran to 850. Ben is talking tough, but i dont believe he has the balls to push rates to 6%. Just look at whats happening to RE and the dow today. With an election in Nov., the republicans do not want to see the RE market crash and the Dow crash at the same time.

Hurricanes and war, oil and euro bourses are all ttrouble. oil is headed higher. period. gold and silver will follow. Pm's are very volitile. but they are headed back to their 70's hi's.

everything is tanking in this market, keep your cash for entry points into PM.

Anonymous said...

It looks to me that the price of gold is falling because the US economy is going into recession. Ditto for long-term interest rates.

Anonymous said...

Gold is junk. Dump it.

Anonymous said...

Look at the 20 year charts. Gold goes down in the summer and up in the winter.

Anonymous said...

Gold and Silver are inflation proof dollars. We are just starting to see core inflation show its head.

S said...

Keith,

While the "hot money" is getting out, smart money and central banks are getting in. Russia has been converting oil dollars into gold. China still has plenty of dollar burning in its pocket and not that much gold in reserve. See this Telegraph article:

http://tinyurl.com/nf6w2

S

Anonymous said...

Gold is an accumulation for me. I don't buy it to try and trade it. You target a small percentage of your assets for it as a hedge, (2-10%) and don't worry about the dips.

It's an insurance policy, a hedge. It's also a commodity that provides some of a balance to your portfolio (easier than storing oil or wheat).

I like gold coins, they are pretty, and more liquid than bars. Yes, there is a higher premium, but in the long run its OK.

I also like gold watches, since I like to wear them. But the gold content is rather low for the mark up if you want a current fashionable one in working condition.

Other threads have talked about the SHTF scenario, and its good for that, but not something I am betting on, or hopeing for. And yes, I do include S+W (and Glock, Ruger, etc.) as part of diversification.

Anonymous said...

Yup. I agree. I recently bought coins and may get some more. Have the guns which seem to remain constant in price despite the metal they are made from is rising - stainless in particular.

Next to be heaped into the pile of land, coins, guns, and toys (airplanes) is more tools to be used on my tractor. The tools seem to only go up and they are useful. And maybe some fencing and cattle. Biotech stocks (bird flu, aging population).

And of course - cash.

But a $600K McMansion in a cookie cutter subdivision crammed in with a bunch of worried and underwater people? Gotta be kidding.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of coins, the dealer I buy from (with cash) is selling eagles for $660 this AM. I paid $680 two days ago for some. They ordered them 2 weeks ago and paid $686 for them.

I think the coins are a liquid asset on the buy and sell side that trades with the market. The premium is built into the coin and it includes assured assay and protection against fake alloy. I like maple leafs and "kangaroos" because the alloy is pure. Eagles are probably what they state, but who knows since the US govt is behind them.

Anonymous said...

Y'all should know by now that whenever CNBC talking heads start babbling about an asset class, it's time to SELL.

Precious metals will inevitably move higher as the U.S. dollar sinks. I disagree with those who advise buying gold coins. Junk silver (pre-'64 coins, 90% silver) is much better if you have a place to store it. They are legal tender, and their value can never fall below the face value even if the Feds legislate a ridiculously low price for silver. If silver prices go to the Moon, it will be a lot easier to barter with a dime or quarter than a 100 oz bar or a Krugerand worth $5K.

Anonymous said...

If Keith says buy, then I sell. If Keith says sell, then I buy.

I am not buying GLD.

Anonymous said...

We're only transitioning into stage II of the gold bull run. We have a long way to go. This correction was expected and predicted. Here is a little on the stages:

http://www.zealllc.com/2004/au3stage.htm

Anonymous said...

I'll repost this here:

Where do you store your gold?

In your freezer ? Buried somewhere?

I'm just trying to figure out the risks in that (floods, hurricanes, burglar/drunken uncle/jealous ex-spouse stealing it etc). Also, if you are known gold bug storing gold at home and your predictios are correct (gold soars to unprecedent levels) I think you ought to buy a Smith&Wesson as well and know how to use it. Law & order may collapse easily (remember Katrina in New Orleans, LA riots in 1990s..).

How are you selling gold in that kind of environment (if dollar has collapsed)? I'm thinking about Mad Max (Mel Gibson escaping from the oil refinary with load of oil)

Anonymous said...

Do you guys think gold will be the next mania?

First money went to stocks, then out in 2001 and found a home in real estate.

Now the RE mania is coming to an end and mad money will go into gold?

Plenty of time to ride gold up, IMO. But will it end like the RE mania?

Will there be "Gold Panic Blogs"
battling the gold bugs at the top 1200 an ounce, calling for Gold 2000?

What's the next mania?

Anonymous said...

The talk about having some gold in your pile of assets is relevant here because housing can / may really take the global economy down for a while. So can oil, bird flu, earthquake, etc...

What is so wrong about owning some? It can be bought and traded in cash, which is handy stuff to buy food and gas with. A decent way to ride out inflation to have money for the things we really need (but do not show in the index).

I have some and will probably get some more. Maybe in the amount of 1-2 years of food / gas / utilities at current prices.

That is my call. Safe, maybe not a huge gainer, but still on the safe side.

Anonymous said...

People are so impatient these days! They want to make 50% a year, with no risk.

Gold is a long term investment. Like any other investment you want to buy it at the beginning, or at least in th e middle of a long term uptrend.

If you are hoping to make 50% in a year, ANY investment is unlikely to work out for you.

Gold is a STORE OF VALUE over the long haul. THAT is what gold is! Take a look at the price of a barrel or oil, a man's suit, a house or almost anything else over the last 100 years and you will see the price has stayed fairly constant, IN TERMS OF GOLD. Can't say that about the US dollar now, can you?

Anonymous said...

Exactly what I am thinking. Hedge inflation with gold coins. Not looking to make a fortune, just get some stability.

Now those who sold their RE at the peak and bought gold with the proceeds - they not only kept their value but also made a buck.

I am finding gold coins to be easy to buy and they will be just as easy to sell. More commission than stocks though. I figure around 2%. That is on a cash transaction, no sales taxes.

Anonymous said...

No offence to anyone intended, but it would appear that the majority of posters on this board would not be considered "smart money". A contrarian view to the majority on this board would therefore seem wise. In fact, a few weeks ago when the gold hysteria was raging on here, it was plainly obvious that there was going to be a very sharp correction....

Anonymous said...

You do not have some gold?

Read this article.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2205477,00.html

Then think about the state of the economy, even global economy.

Again I ask, you do not have some gold?

Anonymous said...

Iran is buying gold

http://tinyurl.com/zphdl

Anonymous said...

The asset repatriation plan was set into motion just weeks after former Revolutionary Guards officer Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took over as president.

This nutcase planned to have the confrontation and nuclear weapons so he realized better to repatriate everything asap.

Anonymous said...

Ben can yap about a strong dollar all he wants...thats for politics and public consumption! All that needs to be said about the fate of the dollar was said by former Dallas based Fed governor Robert McTeer; "The ONLY direction for the dollar is down"! Hold all the dollars that you want, eventually they will be at par with Zimbabwean money! Enjoy!

Anonymous said...

Gold never goes down, it has no risk and they don't make anymore gold.

Anonymous said...

trading range? it's plummeting faster than housing! seems like you are choosing to ignore the fact that gold had no fundamental reason to go up, just like housing had no fundamental reason to go up. gold is a bubble just like housing, open your eyes.

Anonymous said...

What is the best way to buy and sell gold? Does anybody have any ideas?

Anonymous said...

"What is the best way to buy and sell gold? Does anybody have any ideas?"

Well it all depends, unless you have an employer contributed retirement account, I personally wouldn't entertain an ETF, but your circumstances may be different from me.
My advice (it's worth precisely what you pay for it) is buy krugerands in 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz or 1/10oz coins (there's a load of different types/brands of coin, but krugerands have the lowest premium I find) easiest way is to set aside $X amount a week/month and take a wander to a coin shop and buy when you have enough saved to buy something. Selling is pretty much the reverse, take your coins down the shop and sell them back.

Anonymous said...

"What is the best way to buy and sell gold? Does anybody have any ideas?"

Well it all depends, unless you have an employer contributed retirement account, I personally wouldn't entertain an ETF, but your circumstances may be different from me.
My advice (it's worth precisely what you pay for it) is buy krugerands in 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz or 1/10oz coins (there's a load of different types/brands of coin, but krugerands have the lowest premium I find) easiest way is to set aside $X amount a week/month and take a wander to a coin shop and buy when you have enough saved to buy something. Selling is pretty much the reverse, take your coins down the shop and sell them back.

Anonymous said...

Where do you store your gold?
What do you think of the risks in that (floods, riots, hurricanes, burglars..) ?

Anonymous said...

Even if Bernanke jacks rates up to 6%, that will only be good enough to address last year's inflation.

All the money supply expansion the Fed created in the past decade has yet to work its way through the real economy. When it does, it is likely to be quite jarring. Inflation may go to the double digits.

Bernanke will continue to lag... when the market realizes this, gold won't look back.

The interesting thing about "helicopter Ben" is that this is really the only way out for Bernanke. If he just deflates, then we'll have a depression. But if he deflates just higher forms of money and pumps up cash, he would effect a redistrbution of resources from the comfortable to the desperate. The best way of doing this without any legislation would be, almost literally, flooding the streets with printed cash.

As for the gold situation... the central banks that have been leasing gold short are an OPEC-like cartel that will end up getting broken by the fundamentals, just like OPEC. Even in the above "redistributive Fed" scenario, investor confidence in the central bank will be destroyed.

Anonymous said...

My advice is buy krugerands

How do you know they are real gold? If you can fake Picasso you can fake anything.

Since all clueless amateur speculators are now rushing to buy gold isn't this an open invitation to gold fraudsters? I'm sure there are plenty of "gold factories" already making new gold to clueless speculators. In fact, launching a gold factory start-up sounds like a great business idea. I can sell "supergold" so technically it is not even a lie.

(voice of eric estrada on TV:) Hey, buy supergold, it never goes down!

Anonymous said...

Where were you guys back in the day? Were any of you buying gold back in 2000/2001 when you could get an ounce for less than 300 bucks? Most of the posters I have seen were buying gold in the high 400's and low 500's which I consider to be pretty expensive.

Look, gold doubled from 250 to 500. You should have bought it at 250. But now it needs to go to 1,200 to double (or 1,400 f you bought just a couple weeks ago), which is a much harder task to accomplish. From the sound of the pro-gold crowd it seems they would rather buy gold at ever higher prices than at low prices.

Back when I bought gold you couldn't tell anyone about it because they would look at you like a UFO conspiratorialist. However now when one talks about owning gold or adding it to your portfolio there is no shame.

Question: Which time period above do you think is the best time to buy gold?

Anonymous said...

I just bought 10 100oz bars of gold and got delivery yesterday!

The price drop was just more then I could bear.

It you think gold is not were its add then you are full of bull.

After seeing the movie sideways I will bury my gold in old wine bottes and then put the wine back in so Adolf Bushler will not find it.

Technically we are in triple finger knuckle trading range which always implies a mid term correction in either direction followed by a stability factor over 5.3 dependent of the alpha bear looking through to the bull.

41cadillac said...

Yahoo News Canada 6-07-06
Investors who thought gold has nowhere to go but up have recently been getting a sharp lesson in just how volatile the precious metal's price can be.



In morning trading Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery were down $11.20 US to $623.50 US an ounce.


That's their lowest price in almost seven weeks, and a drop of more than $100 US since May 12, when gold hit a 26-year high of $730 US an ounce before retreating on profit-taking.

Anonymous said...

In the long run, I hate gold. In the short run, who knows?

Anonymous said...

For as much as you talk about the housing bubble...you sure bought right into the 2nd biggest bubble of all time. The commodity bubble.

Gold is worthless dude.

Anonymous said...

How to store your gold or silver?

Buy yourself some steel ammo boxes, They have a rubber seal, you can put a lock on them, they have a carry handle so are easily transported, they also come in various sizes too.

As for being burgled, store your gold/silver filled ammo boxes under the stairs/in cellar/in loft amongst all the other crap we all have stored that will never see the light of day again.
Burglars want to get in and out asap, they look for high value items that are light and easy to carry. They'll take your wallet off the shelf, empty the wifes jewellery box, mobile phone etc.
They don't go rooting through boxes of old crap, or take widescreen TVs or washing machines without the aid of a removal truck and they know the house is empty for a fortnight.
So if you are going away, make alternative arrangements for storage.
As for fire or flood, neither will consume your gold, if in the unlikely event of your house becoming a raging inferno, the worst that will happen is all your nice gold coins are now in one big lump!!
In that case scenario just weigh it in at the refiner and you'd get back 90% of your outlay, which is more than can be said for your cash stuffed mattress!

Dogcrap Green said...

send me your gold. I will store it safely

Anonymous said...

"Gold is worthless dude."

Oh really? Care to comment on why all (I repeat all, not just the odd one or 2) gold clearing houses spend $millions on security every year instead of just stacking it all on a pallet in the parking lot?

You haven't really thought this through have you?
Remember, shiney side out dude, oh and if your head starts to hurt, you've got it on too tight!!

Anonymous said...

Sorry Keith, I dont call "crashing" from 730 to 630 a "trading range". If gold were a house, in your book it would be crashing. Have fun in your bubble, bubble boy.

________________________________

The Russians and Chinese are buying gold for investment purposes, not speculative condos in the US. They're hedging against a dollar collapse. Eventually the Fed and it's foreign central banks will lose control of the price of gold and be up Shit's Creek. Gold is real money, debt dollars aren't. Gold is limited in quantity, dollars aren't. Gold was used up til 1971 to settle international debts. Apparently some large central banks that aren't friendly towards the US and have massive assets to invest would like to see a return to that.

Anonymous said...

trading range? it's plummeting faster than housing! seems like you are choosing to ignore the fact that gold had no fundamental reason to go up, just like housing had no fundamental reason to go up. gold is a bubble just like housing, open your eyes.

___________________________________
No fundamental reason, how about large central banks with huge depreciating dollar denominated assets to investment in something, something like say, a time tested international money like gold. There's a good fundamental reason for it to go up. And there's lots of info on how the Russians and Chinese, Iranians and Indians are doing just that. The truth is, there's no fundamental reason in a free-market for it to go down, unless we take the free-market part of of the equation and factor in central bank (US, European, Japan) leasing to manage the price of gold to make paper assets appear attractive. At some point though, they'll have fired their last bullet in the leasing scam and the jig will be up publicly. gata.org already knows about this though. Even the central banks and Fed Reserve have admitted doing this, Joe Sick pack doesn't pay attention though. He'll pay attention when gold goes to $2,000 in a matter of months though, the same way he paid attention to houses going up and got in on that one and pumped it even higher but not understanding the fundamentals. The fundamentals for gold is, it's way undervalued and has a history of being international money, and it will return to that.

Anonymous said...

I was told by the coin dealer that Krugers are a little harder to sell due to the old stigma of apartheid. That is why they have a lower premium. Besides, like US Eagles, they are not .9999 pure and have a slight off color compared to .9999 coins. For that reason I like Maple Leafs or Kangaroos a little better when I have a choice. As for counterfiets, I doubt it. These coins are very nice and would be hard to fake. Buy from a dealer that has a good reputation.

The price drop is not a big deal unless it really falls off. The 1oz coins have about a $30-$40 premium and about a 2% trade-in cost. The dealer I buy from has Eagles he paid $686 for which were priced to me yesterday at $660. Today they may be a little less. Hope so cause I want some more Leafs and hope to pay a little less for them today or tomorrow when they come in.

I do not see gold coins as a real investment that will for sure go up. To me they are just a way to preserve value in a more secure way than dollar currency. Better than a ETF or other electronic means of securing value because these are physical assets. Not all my real value is in coins, just some, which I equate to a year or so of living expenses at current prices. To the guy who said he was buying at $250-$300 and now it is too high, well so is oil and gasoline. You are still buying gas aren't you? The gold / gas ratio has remained about the same.

Anonymous said...

GW Gets another today, How are you left my left wingers???

Anonymous said...

Keith. Run keith Run..They're gonna get you.
Gold shellacked.
Going down to 500 short term.
Then to $350
Gold speculators ass on FIRE FiRE FIRE

EOM

Anonymous said...

more crickets chirping here. The lefties are ducking.

Anonymous said...

Your GlD and COP is crashing........COP is below 60.......ouch.

Anonymous said...

Fannie and Freddie downgraded today. What we're looking at is going to be bigger than the S&L crisis.

How can you downgrade a government-backed enterprise? This is the closest we may get to a downgrading of the US's bond rating before it all collapses.

Gold and housing are not unrelated; Fannie's collapse will add to the housing bubble crash and undermine confidence in the government. Obviously this will send gold up.

Anonymous said...

The gov't better NOT bail out those GSEs. No reason to. They are run by the Fed now and traded on stock exchanges. this is a private sector problem. the sooner they collapse, the sooner the market can return to being a market.

I am gonna buy more gold coins today. this may be a losing bet, but maybe the PPT is working hard as they can to keep gold down and the dollar up. Will they run out of ammo?

Anonymous said...

All you people trashing gold had better look at the news. Al Qaida is going extract revenge for al-Zarqawi's death, and I suspect it will make the London stuff look like a girl scout picnic.

This war and the resulting turmoil is just beginning, and gold is not down and out.

Anonymous said...

Maybe gold is not the best way to store value, but it is one way. Land is another if it is not bought at too high a price. Is gold too high right now? Maybe it is. That is why the best advisors always say have SOME in your quiver, maybe 10% or so. At least gold is pretty liquid buying or selling. And it stashes away easily.

This may be a dip, it may be a trend. You takes your chances when you makes your bets.

Anonymous said...

You're the one that bought. You mean you bought and have no plan of when to sell for profit or when to take a loss -- you're asking us. Good luck with you investments :-)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous of June 08, 2006 3:51:16 PM asked "How can you downgrade a government-backed enterprise?

This is a common, but dangerous, misperception. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debt is not government backed. In fact, they are required by law to clearly state that they are not government backed.

Quoting from their prospectus:

Freddie Mac: Principal and interest payments on the PCs are not guaranteed by and are not debts or obligations of the United States or any federal agency or instrumentality other than Freddie Mac. We alone are responsible for making payments on our guarantee.

Fannie Mae: Neither the Mega certificates nor payments of principal and interest on the Mega certificates are guaranteed by the United States government. The Mega certificates do not constitute a debt or obligation of the United States or any of its agencies or instrumentalities other than Fannie Mae. We alone are responsible for making payments on our guaranty.

I don't understand why people continue to live in the fantasy land that Freddie and Fannie are obligations of the government. Just because they have "federal" in their name no more makes them part of the federal government than "Federal Express".

Anonymous said...

I dumped GLD in April, when I started seeing a lot of people on these boards pumping it and detected a speculative frenzy. Of course I missed the biggest appreciation and had to live with a mere 70%, but I sleep nights. I think once people on these boards are universally saying dump gold it might be time to reconsider.

Anonymous said...

"I don't understand why people continue to live in the fantasy land that Freddie and Fannie are obligations of the government. Just because they have "federal" in their name no more makes them part of the federal government than "Federal Express".

One minor detail: In '05 Congress put both under direct supervision of the Federal Reserve. They were horribly mismanaged, and are probably insolvent. If you think politicians and the Fed will let them twist in the wind and bring down the economy, YOU are the one in fantasy land. They will be bailed-out with taxpayer money, just like the S&Ls were 20 years ago.

Anonymous said...

Bubble or not, if you ever plan to retire in the next 20-50 years from now, you better understand how the feds work over the economy by blowing asset bubbles and how to prosper in those investments while not getting hosed. Knowing you are playing in a bubble is half the game to prosperity.

Anonymous said...

Just participate in the Holy Grail Of Investing located here:

http://autoforex.biz

The Thinker said...

THE NEXT BEST THING WILL BE PORK BELLY FUTURES AND CONCENTRATED OJ! Get in now while there is still time because this train is about to leave the station...

Oh brother! Quit watching so much CNBC. I hope you gold bulls learned your lesson.

The issue is not whether gold is a good thing to own, obviously it has value, the question is at what price is gold a good bargain. Ask yourself if you are buying gold because you think it is a good bargain or are you buying gold because you think speculators will bid it up.

Why do people say gold is a good hedge against inflation when it has (forgetting about the speculative bubble of the past few years) kept up so poorly with inflation? I mean, more gold has been taken out of the earth in the past few years than has ever been taken out in all of human history. Gold will be easier and easier to extract as technology improves. Gold is only valuable because it is rare. I said it before, some native Americans thought iron was rare and precious because they were only able to get it out of meteors.

Sure gold has industrial uses, but it can also be hammered out until it is one atom thick, so you don’t need to use much of the stuff.

Don't get me wrong, I like gold, and I would like to put a few percent of my portfolio in it, however, what is good is not good at any price and right now it is way over priced! I'll buy in next time it loops back to 500, that seems like an appropriate price.

Anonymous said...

I recommend the DVD: Gold! History of Man's Greatest Obsession (2001) from the history channel.

"It has sparked wars and toppled empires, inspired legends and captivated our imagination. Throughout the course of human history, gold has been sought, mined, treasured and hoarded."
Tom

Anonymous said...

hedged

mechanical-reactive

nanolot

granularity

Metatrader




sounds like a load of Meta-crap

blogger said...

Flash: I don't own gold anymore.. my stop loss got taken out at $625. Ugh.

But I'm making a killing with my FAST and HD put option shorts! QQQQ short options doing well too, as is BEARX

COP holding, and remember, I don't care the price until 2012 when I exercise.

And cash is king.

Anonymous said...

right

Anonymous said...

Closed gold shorts this AM, went long [CBOT].
Front month support at 612; stop 608.
Leveraged 9:1.

Anonymous said...

"I hope you gold bulls learned your lesson."
Which lesson is that?
My gold will be a store of value long, long after everyone on this blog is gone.
I just appreciate the anti-bubble (Didier Sornette) that developed in the late '90's/early 2000's

"Gold is worthless dude."
In 1913 terms, real millionaires should have 15-20 million in "net worth" - so which is really worth-less? Maybe you're not old enough to remember penny candy (viz Richard Maybury). 1913 millionaires with "personal portfolio managers" have ~5-7% gold weighting in their portfolios.

"I dont call "crashing" from 730 to 630 a "trading range"."
I agree, certainly not a trading range (though it was a great tradable range). It's spec washout and shorts going nutz.
Is 575-600 new support? We'll see.

Anonymous said...

Good info. Thanks.

Regards,

ETF & Stock Trader
equity option trading