Remember a few months ago when the yield curve inverted for the first time and some said "don't worry, it's DIFFERENT this time".
And we said, no, it's never different this time.
Well, it's never different this time. Again.
We wish it wasn’t so, and we wish we didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession.
This is how aging economic recoveries end--when “good” news means bad things for interest rates and the stock market. And while everyone likes to think the Federal Reserve is omniscient and omnipotent, the “soft landing” objective is very seldom achieved. In the current climate, with the housing bubble unwinding now underway, we believe the landing gear has already fallen off.
In the past 40 years, there have been eight instances where the yield curve (10-year T-bond minus 3-month T-bill) has flattened to this extent. In four of those instances, the yield curve temporarily widened, only to flatten again: 1973, 1989, 1998 and 2000. But in only one of those eight instances was the economy able to avoid a recession.
June 07, 2006
Forbes writer uses the "R word": Recession Dead Ahead
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I couldn't agree more! But they won't suffer half as much as all of us.
keep it clean folks or I'll delete
The GOP from Reagan to Bush Jr. - its main goal has been to take us bacl to the era of Coolidge/Hoover- and even the guilded age of the late 19th century ... it's sad, and scary but the 'ownership society' is a cold place- with no safety nets for anyone but the wealthy shareholders, and corporations.
What do you mean no safety net???
Boy and girls, you get to kneel and whine in the pew of your local MegaChurch every Sunday. It's great consolation to those who lose in the great capitalist game. That's why the GOP promotes religion so heavily, doh.
Meanwhile our economic masters will enjoy a game of golf at their exclusive country club. No poor people allowed.
Thats what many in the bubble sphere have been saying for a while now.
With the technical definiton of recession being two quarters of negative growth (i think), we will have a short recession, its what comes after that? Years and years of low growth and stagnant wages, once you've perpetrated the largest credit default in history its tough to get that credit re-established, and the RESPONSIBLE use of credit is actually a good thing.
What may make it different this time is information liquidity (how's that for a description of the internet media - blogs in particular) and the ability for big and little guys to trade globally electronically. You can buy gold, trade currency, sell stocks (except maybe not, as a trading freeze was reported by a poster yesterday at 3:30 right before the DOW runup). This time the stampede may get faster. Will they conjure up technical difficulties to prevent the electronic stampede while they unload or buy for themselves?
I think the price action in gold is a fake. The PPT must not want people to panic when the price runs up over $700 like it did. The price of gold is an indicator of sentiment and high = scared. Scared of either of the dollar value for Americans and others, collapse in economies, or other disasters. That is why the "powers" like to keep the price low. This business of leasing gold sounds funny to me. They can't short shares of stock that the owners have certificates for, and they can't lease coins or other physical gold that is held by individuals.
I agree with Granny that that the internet has given the rest of us a platform at a time when ownership of MSM was becoming ever more concentrated. But this situation is in jeopardy.
See this:
http://tinyurl.com/om5kr
All the lefties are wringing their hands in glee over the coming financial storms. I wonder what these party shills will have to say when President Pelosi or Clinton uses the Dem-controlled Congress to tax their asses into poverty?
The sad fact is that even with an income tax rate of 100%, there still isn't enough money to pay for all of the toys and spending legislated by those fools in DC. And please don't tell us how getting out of Iraq will solve all the problems. That spending is huge $$ for sure, but it's just a squirrel fart in a hurricane when compared to the total budget.
So tell us comrades, how will YOU wisely spend the people's money and lead us to Utopia?
See this:
http://tinyurl.com/om5kr
A friend of mine gets his internet through the local phone company. They have their browser installed into his machine. Total crap and a real crime - when i try to use it there is no way to access a lot of sites. Cannot get onto Yahoo email and others.
Some sheeple will let these ISPs dictate their content. too bad for them. I wonder when the HBs and NAR will start paying GOOG and YHOO and the ISPs to redirect bubble blogs to NAR friendly sites?
So tell us comrades, how will YOU wisely spend the people's money and lead us to Utopia?
I'm not sure I qualify as a "comrade", however, here are a few steps to start with-
*Cut back the empire building before we get a new and expensive arms race started. And does anyone think that Russia, China, and India are not capable of keeping Iran in line?
*Cut back the prescription drug benefits. No more money for brand name over-priced dangerous and useless drugs for people who are killing themselves by their own hands ie smoking, obesity, drugs, neglect of diabetic conditions etc. And why did the F-ing Repugs have a system in which drug prices are not negotiable?@$%
*Tax breaks for energy conservation ..this wil pay for itself in the near future and is good for national security.
*No tax breaks for loser programs like ethanol production. It's a scam giveaway to the agricorps.
*Put the boomers to work by setting up public/private partnerships to build affordable centralized housing for the herd of retirees that is bulging down the pipe.
*Cut the mortgage deduction for home equity loans.
*And lots more. Anything that will save money and wean this spoiled society away from it's wasteful ways.
Greater freedom will result, comrade.
What? No mass executions of greedy Republicans? Come now comrade, the State surely needs more than the puny remedies you offer! In fact, it may be time for you to take a vacation to the western industrial region where our new oil shale project is underway. Lots of fresh air and the company of other comrades who will do the right thing to glorify President Pelosi's new five year plan.
We're so glad you volunteered!
depression in the cards??
http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/07062006.html
To the moron at the top of this post bad-mouthing conservatives, if they suffer, you'll suffer more idiot, because you, and little commies like you work for people like us. Most conservatives I know are fiscally conservative. It's the hip-hop, slacker, hippie liberals who think everything is owed to them that I see living way above their means, and I can't wait for them to get introduced to reality.
I'm guessing you're one of those people who instead of saving or investing, spends ALL of your discretionary income on computer gaming, concert tickets and alcohol, the latter which you can use to drown your sorrows, or your pitiful self
Hate to "burst your bubble," but it is slightly different this time thanks to creative financing! There's the 125% loan & the 50yr mortgage; and our American Idol watching sheeple can't wait to get one!
The arrogant, bullying tactics of conservatives makes me realize how Stalin could kill so many of their ideological ancestors. I understand ideological hatred and the glee of watching a group of people destroyed.
If it comes to that, I wouldn't lift a finger to stop it and doubt anyone else in the world would either.
Ugly? You bet. But there's nothing that says this kind of hatred won't resurface when the republicans bring pain to the masses.
"Most conservatives I know are fiscally conservative."
Good, you and most of your friends can join us in getting rid of this horrific gang that seized the white house in 2000. We know their mascot is terming out in 2008, but we need to make sure the WHOLE gang is either in prison or back in Texas where they belong.
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