March 21, 2006

Folks, sorry to bring more bad news. But the US property crime rate is about to soar

Housing meltdown ramification #1263: The US Crime Rate Soars

Pretty obvious, but now that housing is in meltdown mode, adjustable rate mortgages are about to add hundreds of $ to monthly payments, and 1 Million plus folks are about to get the heave-ho, our safe little mecca called the US of A is about to see crime soar like never before.

1) Illegal, jobless, displaced and pissed Mexican immigrants, now that they're in the country, are going to stay here by any means necessary. Watch the criminalization of this once generally peaceful class happen before your very eyes. African Americans went first, next up is the Hispanics. Has nothing to do with skin color, has everything to do with socioeconomic status. Shoot the messenger all you want, it's just basic class warfare of the haves vs. the have nots. And the have nots are going to be really really frigging pissed - white, black and Hispanic.

2) 1 Million people (at least - I'd guess many many more) connected to the US real estate business are about to get the old heave ho. And they'll need to do something to pay the bills. Circle K and 7-Eleven, get ready. Here they come and they need cash now.

3) Millions of folks are about to get their interest-only ARMS adjusted. That means they'll need $100's of dollars a month more just to keep the house. Heck, look at the Bush staffer who robbed Target and Hecht's just to pay the mortgage. If he can do it, so will your neighbor. Lock down the bikes and bolt the doors, property crime is gonna soar

4) eBay. One word. eBay. Steal stuff and put it up on the www. Never been easier, and listings will soar. eBay.


Out at the peak said...

Did you see the movie Fun with Dick and Jane? One issue it tackles is serial theft to pay the mortgage.

There is bound to be a lot of eBay competition. I'm also going to try to unload my excess not for money, but for mobility.

Anonymous said...

Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime by Steven Raphael and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer

The Journal of Law and Economics, volume 44 (2001), pages 259–283

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime. Using U.S. state data, we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses. We control extensively for state-level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state-specific time trends, state effects, and year effects. In addition, we use prime defense contracts and a state-specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications. Our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate. The evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker. However, a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates.

Anonymous said...

On the other hand.....

Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving
the Paradox by Cezary A. Kapuscinski, John Braithwaite, and
Bruce Chapman

Journal of quantitative criminology ISSN: 0748-4518
Volume: 14 Issue: 3 Page: 215 Date: 1998

While official crime statistics from many countries show that unemployed people
have high crime rates and that communities with a lot of unemployment experience
a lot of crime, this cross-sectional relationship is very often not found in
time-series studies of unemployment and crime. In Australia there have been no
individual-level or cross-sectional studies of unemployment and adult crime
which have failed to find a positive relationship and no time-series which have
supported a positive relationship. Consistent with this pattern, a time series of
homicide from 1921 to 1987 in Australia reveals no significant unemployment
effect. A theoretical resolution of this apparent paradox is advanced in terms of
the effect of female employment on crime in a partriarchal society. Crime is
posited as a function of both total unemployment and female employment. When
female employment is added to the model, it has a strong positive effect on
homicide, and unemployment also assumes a strong positive effect.

Translation : unemployment has no effect on the rate of homicide.

Anonymous said...

Whites will not also commit crimes as a result of the bubble? Will they not be profoundly affected by the economic collapse? Check yourself, Keith. You sound like William Bennett ("if you kill all black babies, crime will go down").

blogger said...

oh, crimes will be committed by all - see my statement that skin color has nothing - NOTHING - to do with crime. Economic status has everything, EVERYTHING, to do with crime.

Remember, your blogger is an independent - can't stand republicans, can't stand democrats. Calls it likes he sees it without the pressure of party.

Blacks were held down as a skin-color class post-slavery by whites for well over a hundred years. So that repression caused the crime seen in the African American community, where now 43.7% of people behind bars have Black skin.

Now that we've let the Hispanics in (illegally but gladly), and now that their jobs are about to go away, we'll see discrimiation against this skin-color class, which will lead to socioeconomic stress, which will I believe lead to a crime wave committed by economically stressed Hispanics.

Now, that said, the strong Catholic heritage of the Hispanic culture may soften the propensity to commit crime, versus the general US population.

But again, just look at that Bush staffer. Good church-going, right-wing, Christian guy. Who stole and stole and stole to pay his mortgage.

Anonymous said...

Keith, thanks for addressing my concern about the balance of your post. I'm glad I was able to express my view and I like your sensitivity to this issue. I'm new to your blog and I think its great. Keep up the good work and I'll keep reading!

Anonymous said...

I applaud you for taking a stand in your posting. But the article you linked to goes on and on about how non-whites are imprisoned more than whites, but forget to mention the fact that the crime commitment rate is proportionally higher.

I've learned this with my kids and co-workers. People do not improve unless you hold them to some hard standards, and stop making excuses such as years of slavery....

blogger said...

I'm touching the third rail here. The reason Congress hasn't addressed this issue is that they can't - while I, an independent blogger, can.

Skin color has nothing to do with behavior. Correlation has nothing to do with causation.

And folks who call me a racist for addressing this issue head on don't know me, and don't understand the logic of my argument.

cereal said...

i see a possible dutch revolt in the danish community of van nuys. it could get very ugly.

Anonymous said...

Let us all hunker in a bunker and buy some ARMs (that word has a whole new meaning). . .

Anonymous said...

How many muslim,african,south american, countries do you feel safe in? how many countries of european decent do you feel safe in? Pick any area in socal that is dominated by mexicans(south americans) or blacks do you feel safe? White dominated?

Anonymous said...

I like the post about ARMs.
Just watch out for the people comming to get a zero down deal on your home : (

Keith good on you - you call it like it is.

Anonymous said...

Regarding race comments here: Race is too broad a categorization to place people in. You could certainly draw conclusions about how people are geneticaly adapted to an environment (based on latitiude from the equator) and show they have certain behavioral tendencies.
Truly though, I think we can all find evidence that from our perosnal lives that some types of white people cause as many problems as others "races". There are jerks in every race. And whites have their fair share.

Anonymous said...

Actually a little eugenics would not be bad thing.

panicearly said...

go ahead pat yourself on the back for being born white, im sure your banker
will let you slide on payments and will understand when you complain about the non whites.

Anonymous said...

I live in a community with very low diversity (94% white) and what we're seeing is a surge in property crime from meth heads. These people are usually poor, uneducated, trailer-trash types who are addicted and need quick cash for their habit. The cops arrest them, they make bail and the first thing they do is go out and steal again because they know the jail is full and the DA won't do a damn thing to them.

Personally, I think we should just shoot the a**holes and be done with it, but our "criminal justice system" wouldn't work very well if we short circuited it, now would it? The bleeding hearts here are trying to spend every penny on "treatment" for these losers as if a sermon and a job raking leaves is going to remove that gnawing chemical desire for meth in their shriveled brains.

The legalize all drugs crowd says we should sell 'em meth from storefronts and that would solve the problem -- LOL! While we're at it lets set up governmentt operatted pawn shops so they can fence the stuff they just copped!

Anonymous said...

The police protect criminals from armed citizens because without criminals, the police would be laid off as an unnecessary expense.

The Dallas police have been arresting citizens for drinking in bars (on Drudge).

When RE prices collapse, I hope property tax receipts disappear and police and other gov't bureaucrats have to get real jobs and make an honest living.

Anonymous said...

everyone stock up on 9mm and canned tuna.

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