Let's hear your feedback - has the past few weeks coverage of world geopolitical events and their effects on the housing bubble been a net positive or net negative for the blog?
Your host is obviously very interested in the bubble, the causes, the effects, the corruption and the historical context.
But this polysci major is also convinced that world geopolitics will play a significant role in the worldwide collapse of the housing ponzi scheme. Especially the radical kooks bastardizing the muslim faith, combined with the zealots trying to frame the now unrecognizable GOP as the true party of God, and the clash of cultures brought about by these two radical camps.
Perhaps time for a spin-off blog - worldpanic.blogspot.com? Or are we good to go here?
Keith
February 15, 2006
HousingPanic - taking a turn toward the better or worse?
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19 comments:
Keith, I think you should stay away from the republican / democrat arguments. The FED, the crazies in the Middle East and European politics are all on the table.
BTW, you said; “Especially the radical kooks bastardizing the muslim fait”. They are only doing what their faith teaches them to do … I challenge anyone to read the Koran and tell me otherwise.
I believe religious fanatacism and zealotry by any name is dangerous and threatening to the well-being of all humankind. I have never encountered anything so dangerous as a religious fanatic of ANY faith that knows everything, has a mind closed to discussion, is absolutely convinced his beliefs are right, asks no questions regarding religion, and is prepared to die and take others with him in defense of his screwy beliefs. That applies to ALL religions. If you see yourself here, then THIS MEANS YOU!
I left this same point on an earlier thread... I'll leave it again. I KNOW we are in a housing bubble, never been so sure of anything in my life. I am a former owner, out of the market in 2004 (leaving 20% appreciation on the table through 2005, ouch), and now I am renting for probably less than 50% of the cost of owning the same place. We WILL have a major historic buying opportunity in real estate in the next 5 years.
HOWEVER -- I simply do not buy that global turmoil and terrorism is a factor hurting home prices in the USA. Indeed I believe the reverse is probably true. If we are entering a period when nuclear terror is an increased risk, I am sure that will hurt places that are pewrceived as targets, like NYC. Overall, however, people will place a premium value on regions, countries, and cities that seem more secure. This means, at the margin, people will buy USA over Europe (where there are large muslim popultions and terror attacks have continued in major cities since 9/11, while the US has been quiet)and people will buy rural over urban in the US.
The last 5 years' boom in US real estate should be partly understood in terms of 9/11. People associate home ownership with security, hunkering down, the nest. People believe the US is more secure than other regions, because of a stable government and strong military. the fact that we have not suffered additional attacks since 9/11 has reinforced that belief among many people.
By all means expect the Real estate bubble to pop. But don't look to the middle east to pop it.
I enjoy the geopolitical event tie-ins that are very specific to USD. USD perception is very important to fund mortgages and allows us to buy goods at low prices! Almost everyone takes this for granted.
If 70% of the world savings was not invested in USD, we could not be where we are today. So news regarding Syria and Iran moving away from USD trade will hurt the strength of USD. China and Russia are interested in diversifying into precious metals and away from USD.
When we can't fund our personal and government debt at levels that we use to, our livestyles will be less luxurious.
Diemos probably has the right idea. Perhaps you can have Housing Panic and Dollar Panic.
I've been a carpenter for 25 years now, I work with my hands everyday and I'm not the brightest when it comes to bubbles, arms, oil, recessions or terrorism, but your blog leads me to websites I never would have gone to, and I've learned things I did'nt know.
Your blog gets better everyday.
keep up the good work.
I've been a carpenter for 25 years now, I work with my hands everyday and I'm not the brightest when it comes to bubbles, arms, oil, recessions or terrorism, but your blog leads me to websites I never would have gone to, and I've learned things I did'nt know.
Your blog gets better everyday.
keep up the good work.
net negative
I agree we are in a housing bubble, but it starts to get too doomsdayish when predicting war and destruction. We have been at war with terrorism now since 9/11 and if Iran gets added (hopefully not)into the fray, I don't think that would change things that much.
yeah, time for a different blog. (not that I didn't enjoy the geopolitics/religious issues, but it just needs a differnt blog)
Most of the posters here seem to be level-headed people who believe that the housing market is a cycle that has hit a peak and has started to begin to fall. Occasionally we those posters who think our world is about to fall apart.
This topic seems to have shed some light on this distinction. In the short history of our country we have seen good times and bad. We have survived through worse and we have always landed on our feet. What ever is going on now in the middle east is not nearly as threatening to our way of life as the civil war, the great depression, fascism, and the threat of global destruction posed by the cold war.
So let’s not get crazy here.
I agree witrh most comments, but as the gentalman above said
"I've been a carpenter for 25 years now, I work with my hands everyday and I'm not the brightest when it comes to bubbles, arms, oil, recessions or terrorism, but your blog leads me to websites I never would have gone to, and I've learned things I did'nt know.
Your blog gets better everyday.
keep up the good work"
This is most poeple who go about their daily routine without taking a moment and keep up with current events and what is really going on in the wotld. Anyway there is a bubble not only because of world events, but because people in reality can not afford what is on the market today. If i am making between $25/$29 dollars an hour, and have a $250/$350,000 thousand dollar mortgage how can i eat? pay the car insurance, electric bill, gas/oil bill, cable, cell, home phone, gas for the car, food , things my kids need on a daily basis.
On that particular salary rage (if one income wife home with the kids) one is streached to the max never mind credit card payments (forgot to add that lovely comodity). So world events do trigger a slow down but so doesn't not having the money to afford.
I am one of the lucky 25%+- i bought in 1993 $86,500 now worth (paper of course $310,000) to whom i ask? and never refinanced, anything i have done was out of pocket cash, but then again i work 2 jobs to support my family, not because i want to because i have to.
oh and forgot to add i have not had a credit card in 10 years, dont want them dont belive in them, pay cash live comfortable living within your means, use credit cards and you are living in a fantasy world of make belive cause that is all it really is fake monopoly money.
Anonymous said:
"I have never encountered anything so dangerous as a religious fanatic of ANY faith that knows everything, has a mind closed to discussion, is absolutely convinced his beliefs are right. . . "
You've just described the president of the United States!
I'd rather it stayed focused on housing issues. I'd happily read another blog on the topic, though.
I prefer if you restrict yourself to just the housing bubble issue. At one time I thought every article you posted was informative and related to the bubble issue. So much so, I recommended many people I know to read it. Now I no longer do....
I was especially disappointed when you posted the cartoon about Mohammed. Out of respect for the Danes and others that feel threatened these days, I do not think anyone should be stoking the flames of Muslim anger (whether we consider the protesting Muslims reasonable or not).
Anon said:
"I believe religious fanatacism and zealotry by any name is dangerous and threatening to the well-being of all humankind. ... That applies to ALL religions. If you see yourself here, then THIS MEANS YOU!"
The difference, of course, is if you said that in a muslim country, such as Saudi Arabia, you would be stoned to death.
Moral equivalency disgusts me.
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