March 03, 2007

Dot-com to dot-condo - company flame-outs, criminal investigations, and the disintegration of an industry. Subprime #2 New Century blows up


Damn I wish I had had the guts to short this one. Oh well, at least I pulled the trigger on LEND and CFC puts, two other big sub-prime lenders that are also flaming out. But damn, New Century is doing it IN STYLE!

Not only have they pets.com'ed on the stock side, not only have they helped bring the world financial markets to its knees last week, but noooooo, they're hitting the flame-out-trifecta, with the oh-too-predictable criminal investigation now underway.

Frog marches do earn the style points in my books. Bravo New Century! Bravo! Couldn't have scripted it any better. 10.0.

Now come the mass layoffs, the office closings, the shareholder lawsuits, and the "how could this happen" MSM stories. And NEW is just one of many. Here we go.

I think all the REIC insider-selling CEO stock manipulators are feeling more nervous by the day, and are probably thinking of making their get-away to Belize or Angola or somewhere pretty soon.

Right Angelo Mozilo (Countrywide)? Right Bob and Bruce Toll (Toll Brothers)? Right Bruce Karatz (KB Home)? Right Brad Morrice (New Century)? Right James Konrath (Accredited)?

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- New Century Financial Corp. said late Friday that it's facing a federal criminal probe and will likely breach a major lending covenant with its financial backers, bringing into question the survival of the second-largest U.S. subprime-mortgage lender.

The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California is conducting a federal criminal inquiry into trading in New Century securities as well as accounting errors, the company wrote in a regulatory filing late Friday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also is looking into the company, as is the regulatory arm of the New York Stock Exchange, New Century disclosed. The company added that it is complying with all three inquiries.

Shares of New Century were down almost 25% in after-hours trading Friday at about $11, after falling more than 7% in the regular session to $14.65.

And this note on New Century's IR website today:

In light of New Century Financial Corporation's February 7, 2007 news release (New Century Financial Corporation to Restate Financial Statements for the quarters Ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2006), the financial information related to the quarters ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2006 should not be relied upon and is included on this Web site for historical archive purposes only.

Will the Great Housing Crash solidify Bush's standing as the worst president in US history?


No, it's not all his fault, but as you all know, what happens on your watch as president, good or bad, is your responsibility in the eyes of the public, like Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression.

Where Bush will really get rung up will be his misguided call for an "ownership society", encouraging people to buy homes at the peak regardless of their financial standing, ability to pay or rent versus own fundamentals.

He'll also be seen as aiding an out of control REIC, never bothering to call for regulation of what was an obviously out of control mess of corruption, system gaming and fraud.

So, simple question, will this epic, historic, devastating housing crash seal the deal with the already historically unpopular George W. Bush in the American population's eyes?

Will Bush be seen as the worst president in the history of the United States of America?

March 02, 2007

The housing crash in slow motion

Yes, some days the housing crash feels like it's happening in slow motion, even though some weeks (Exhibit A: This Week) feel faster than others.


Good god, you ask, why haven't prices (if we knew the truth, not the NAR and Commerce Department BS) crashed 50% already?

Why aren't we in Desperation stage by now - can people still seriously be in Denial?

Why isn't the Great Housing Crash the cover of Time magazine already?

Why aren't Desperate Homedebtors up in arms, protesting in front of the NAR head office in Chicago?

For those of you who complain that this is taking forever, I've got some bad news for you. This is gonna take some time. Maybe (brace yourselves) ten years. Look to Japan.

But just look how far we've come in a year and a half - from lines of sheeple camping out in front of new condo developments, to lines of people camping out at foreclosure auctions.

From The Corrupt David Lereah writing a book on how home prices will never go down, to The Corrupt David Lereah unsuccessfully and unconvincingly calling bottom every month.

Be patient, the crash is FIRMLY underway. But this is gonna take years, not days, not weeks, not months.

Years.

Getting nervous?


Subprime blowing up, spilling over into all other lending


Dow suffers worst drop in four years


Iran ignores latest UN resolution


Housing inventory at record levels, sales plummeting, prices dropping


Wealth effect disappearing, consumer spending to follow


Britney in rehab


Add it up. Get ready. Here it comes.



Weeeeeeeee!!! Enjoy the ride HP'ers, Desperate Homedebtors, Daytraders, Sheeple and Hamsters


Today should be another wild one. And what does Monday have in store? I got some '87 deja vu.

Another rocky start's on tap - Gloom deepens, as futures spell out bearish open.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures turned sharply lower on Friday as investors expressed concern over the dollar's continued slide against the Japanese yen, and about computer maker Dell's downbeat outlook.

S&P 500 futures dropped 9.50 points to 1,395.40 and Nasdaq 100 futures slumped 22.75 points to 1,735.00. Dow industrials futures slid 77 points to 12,175.

The move, like others this week, came quick -- Dow futures were only down about 20 points at around 6:45 Eastern.

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Knowing what they know now, what percent of American homedebtors do you think wish they had sold their house in 2005, cashed out and rented?


And what percent who bought last year regret it now?

The United States - an unsustainable welfare state heading toward bankruptcy fast


Just when it couldn't get worse, the Bush Pharmaceutical Industry Big Wet Kiss Prescription Drug Bill Disaster is now getting some appropriate attention.

The worst president of all time. The greediest, most self-centered generation of all time. Put 'em together and you have the biggest fiscal mess since Rome fell.

U.S. COMPTROLLER: PRESCRIPTION DRUG BILL 'MAY BE THE MOST FINANCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE LAW IN 40 YEARS';

Bill Will Add $8 Trillion to Long-Term Medicare Obligations That Could Already Bankrupt the U.S.

The U.S. government's top accountant says the law that added a prescription drug benefit to Medicare may be the most financially irresponsible legislation passed since the 1960s.

U.S. Comptroller General David Walker says Medicare -- barring vast reform to the program and the nation's healthcare system -- is already on course to possibly bankrupt the treasury and adding the prescription bill just makes the situation worse.