October 09, 2008

I wrote this post in April 2006. And remember, according to Fannie Mae's CEO, nobody saw this coming.

From the HousingPanic archives, April 12, 2006:

I'm starting to think this is going to end badly. No, really, really badly

For the original HP'ers, Fall 2005 was kinda fun - as we were dealing with a theory of an economic bubble, many of us had figured it out, and against the advice of our friends, families and realtors, sold our houses (at the peak).

We were debating if we were in an economic bubble, what were its proofs, its causes, and what would lead to its collapse.

Now that we're here, without a doubt post-peak, post-bubble-pop, well, its time we really think hard about what the world will look like in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, 48 months.

For your personal situation, for your neighbor, for Bob Toll, for realtors, for mortgage brokers, for illegal immigrants, for married couples, for families, for the kids of investors, for Ben Bernanke, for the poor, for the rich, for retailers, for Lexus salesmen, for George Bush, for returning soldiers, for Greenspan, for Trump, for job seekers, for condo flippers, for developers, for Fannie Mae, for China, for stock investors, for renters, for new homebuyers, for America and for the world.

Really. Stop and think about it. Now. Think hard. Visualize it. The bursting of the largest financial bubble in human history.

Because it's all going to end badly. For almost everyone. Really, really, really, really badly.

Really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY badly.

Really badly. And that's not good.


christiangustafson said...

You were so right, Keith, then and today. I am proud to be an early HPer.

Are you ready? Prepared for the twin equity/bond market panic and collapse?

I am almost ready.

Anonymous said...

You are really starting to scare me!!!

One reason is I am not prepared for this even though I knew and I tried to do things to make my situation better but I couldn't get anything to work out! Partly because people didn't understand what I was talking about and also everyone I know is fuckin retarded!! "They no nothing" thanks cramer! I say this all of the time now! THEY NO NOTHING! How typical the phrase is actually a double negative!!
Seriously Keith you are scaring me right now! The second reason is my ability to think and think hard! I also have been long enough to see your track record about having insight to the near future! HELP!!!!

Here is my double positive!

"I know too much"

rich in fl

Boom2Bust.com said...

Yeah, these days a lot of people are saying they didn't see it coming. What they meant to say is that they didn't WANT to see it coming. Who looks forward to the prospect of seeing the boogeyman on their doorstep.

Anonymous said...

Too Bad! This is the consequences of nonchalant crookery at every level in the business world of finance.
Did the richer elements actually think they could rape the system, collect the money at the expense of the middle class? Did they really believe that Americans would buy into this idea of rich being served by mexicans and immigrants while the middle class in this country was being destroyed?
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha.

Anonymous said...

That's a given. So, let's look BEYOND the crash. Beyond the eventual martial law both here and abroad. Let's look beyond the inevitable Third World War...cause that is what our Masters are planning for the grand finale.

What will the world look like afterwards? Will we even care?

gutless and lazy said...

I remember that pic. I use to post as the populate "Anonymous" name back then. I also remember the one with the drunk dog passed out. Of course, LOTS saw it comming. Even many in the "mainstream" financial industry. But they were too busy propping up "business as usual". 90% of what you hear from the business media and the 'talking heads' is BS, they don't believe it themselves.

Anonymous said...


I recall that post (probalby because of the picture). I have been an avid HP'er for years. I have been preaching the pending economic collapse message for over 4 years. My wife listened (thank God) and we sold our Orange County, CA house in early 2006. We've been renting for 2 1/2 years.

I pissed a lot friends off. I was the guy at the party that no one wanted to talk to because I was warning everyone that houses were going to crash. Be careful I said as my friends were "upgrading" to a $700,000 - 1500 sq ft in Huntington Beach or a $850,000 -2,200 sq ft new construction in Laguna Niguel. I had friends in Real Estate Investment Clubs braggin about owning 15 properties. I said, I hope you have some other assets cause those are all going to take a shit. People laughed at me. I always kidded that I felt like Noah building the Arc. I said "its going to rain my friends".

I am very nervous about where we are heading. I am seriously considering the $5,000 cash, food supplies for a few months and a pistol as my final safety net.

For now, I have my portfolio in cash/CD's and a small position in metals and I am keeping a very close eye on the behaviour of the lemmings. Once they turn on Dancing with the stars and it's the President instituing some new emergency plan they will finally figure out that the shit is actually hitting the fan. Then, it's head to the hills time.

Thanks Keith, we did what we could and possibly saved a lot of folks a huge financial loss. Now the question is, how to hold on to it and grow out of this carnage.

kiwibob said...

Sell houses and rent in 2006. Check.
Move everything to cd's at 13500. check.
Get job in New Zealand and live on the beach. check.
All friends and associates think I'm totally insane and should be committed. Check,check,check.

Living well is the ultimate revenge.
Hp rocks.

Anonymous said...

Take a close look at that cat. It's as dead as the world wide banking system. RIP

Isotropic chicken meat product said...

What's all the worry about really?

The sun is still shining, you have two hands (hopefully) you have a strong back (unless you're in a wheelchair or otherwise injured).

The world has not stopped turning since the last time I checked. The tides still go in and out. There's still wind.

Chickens still lay eggs even though the sky is falling. Cows still give milk even without the recombinant bovine growth hormone. Plants still grow when they are tended. People (especially Americans) are still eager to help each other in times of tragedy.

Chinese food is still available for delivery in my neighborhood, Casey Serin still believes that he's going to make something of himself.

Oprah still needs 4 hours of makeup before she goes on TV (maybe after this end of the world crap she'll need 8 hours).

John McCain still hasn't delcared himself the F├╝hrer of the people.

We've got nothing to worry about right? Right????????

Patrick.net is still posting articles which means the media hasn't yet gone out of business.

There's still land that can be farmed and the houses that are sitting empty can be torn down for growing food.

Anonymous said...

Keith, I have been following your blog since the beginning. I read and read and read all the data everywhere. I've been "in the know" for years now, that all this was coming. It's still shocking to actually see it unfold. It's shocking to see people's lives detroyed and it's not fun. I simply wish people were more informed. Why are we such a nation of ignorant people. The sad part is that it's by choice. Education and information abound and it's all open and for the most part free. Yet, still our population never chooses to be informed. We're a nation of mindless followers. All of this could have been prevented, if we would simply choose to make educated decisions.

Anonymous said...

Did you ever find out what happened to dopes?