October 09, 2008

Housing has crashed. 401k's are wiped out. People are losing their jobs. Everything is more expensive. Trust is gone. So how is it out there?


SPECIAL 2-DAY HOUSINGPANIC OPEN THREAD

How has the collapse that we all anticipated affected you?

How about your friends, family and co-workers?

Are you fearful? Are you prepared? Are you furious? Are you stressed?

We all saw this coming, nobody can deny that now. But does that really matter when it all falls apart?

140 comments:

Anonymous said...

10% of the company laid off, 10% cut in pay. Panic, fear, capitulation all in the air.

Now all anyone wants to talk about is the stock market, kinda like when all anyone wanted to talk about was the real estate market. Still, most people are complacent, they haven't sold anything. At least the one or 2 guys who invariably thought it was cheap to buy is no longer saying that.

pgrant said...

Stocking the cupboards. Pulling incremental chunks of cash out of the bank. Keeping the gas tank full. Working out my budget for the day I'm laid off. Expected time of layoff - Dec. or Jan.

keith said...

Read this one. And be glad you listened and stayed strong HP'ers.

I bought a house at exactly the wrong time

Miro Cernetig
Vancouver Sun

Monday, October 06, 2008

Not long ago, I was addicted to real-estate blogs. More precisely, I was fixated on what you might call the Internet's real estate disaster genre: HousingPanic.com, HousingDoom, FlippersInTrouble and, my favourite, ICan'tSellMyHouse.

I didn't own property, you see. I yearned to buy. Yet I thought the West Coast prices way too high. So I loved the gloomy advice of my bloggers, most of whom were located in the United States.

Long before news of the sub-prime meltdown hit the mainstream media, they were warning the U.S. financial system was about to go kaboom. Just wait, they said, for those $1 trillion in junk mortgages to come up for renewal right about, well -- now.

For almost two years I stuck with the doomsayers. I was a believer. My blogger friends, some of them clearly experts with insider information about the industry, had awfully convincing numbers. When the U.S. market melted down, the world markets would follow, they predicted.

So I held off buying my piece of Lotusland.

Then I moved to Vancouver, to begin writing columns.

I quickly discovered that all the while I had been listening to my gloomy real estate disaster bloggers the price-tag of an average Vancouver home had moved up by something like 20 or 30 per cent. I'd missed the boom. So I reassessed and did this calculation.

On a scale between one and 10, I asked myself, what was the chance of the Vancouver housing market going up 10 or more per cent in 2008? I thought less than two. (Turned out I was right about that.)

Then I asked, what are the chances of an average house price going up between zero and 10 per cent? Maybe six out of 10, I guessed.

And the chances of Vancouver prices actually dropping? Maybe two out of 10, I surmised. (Most of my friends, who at dinner parties often talked about how their soaring real estate was ensuring their retirement, thought I was slightly crazy to even think such a thing.)

As you might have guessed, my resolve had finally weakened. So, in the spring of 2007, I bought a piece of paradise. The odds seemed on my side, I decided. At first the prices seemed to keep soaring.

Soon I was telling people at dinner parties how much my house had gone up, too.

Now I'm back to where I started.

The real-estate-disaster bloggers actually were prescient. Wall Street is melting down because of the junk mortgages. Bay Street is in a tailspin. Now my almost daily question is what's going to happen here?

Why did the Bank of Canada suddenly feel the need to pump $20 billion into Canada's financial system in the last few weeks? Can we really avoid a massive downturn here? Have I made a ruinous decision?

As usual when I'm confused about the economy, I called Jock Finlayson. He's the big thinker over at the B.C. Business Council and probably the best economic forecaster in the West. He's never political or an alarmist. It's always just the facts.

And the facts really don't sound very good.

"I wouldn't feel bad about buying," said Jock, listening to me fret. "Nobody saw this coming. We're in a hurricane, but in a hurricane you don't know how bad it is until it's over. And it's not over."

At the moment, Jock said he himself is in the middle of re-evaluating the growth predictions for the B.C. economy, which the provincial government expected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2009. Bet on our 2009 GDP growth sliding sharply downward.

Jock then added: "I wouldn't be surprised to see prices (of Vancouver houses) fall 10 or 20 per cent."

Worried, I then called Vancouver's Condo King, Bob Rennie, to see what he thinks. A man with his pulse on the real estate market, he was comforting.

While the local economy is surely going to be impacted by the financial crisis in the United States, he says people who buy downtown and within the city of Vancouver are likely in good shape.

There just isn't enough supply for the people who want the stuff in the centre of the city.

Rennie also believes the fundamental reality is there's no oversupply of housing and condos in the city of Vancouver, as there is in many U.S. cities now seeing the market tank. He also sees a strong demand for Vancouver's high-end real estate by rich people from afar.

"I wouldn't sell right now," Rennie said. "In fact, I just bought a few more units myself."

Maybe he's right. I sure hope so.

All I know is that I haven't the foggiest idea what's going to happen to the value of my house. And now I've also got something other than real estate to obsess over. My banker is mailing me my RRSP statements.

I'm afraid to look.

mcernetig@vancouversun.com

Anonymous said...

The beginnings of societal breakdown?

Just in the last year I've witnessed many families and relationships break down as the housing bubble collapses here in California. Not only are weak businesses wiped out when the bubble bursts but so are weak relationships.

We're already seeing the breakdown of society as people commit horrific acts as their world's turn upside down and their mortgages go underwater.

It's getting bad out there and it appears we're only at the beginning.

What's going to happen when the Mexicans are jobless and the yuppies can't get their Starbucks or have to sell their BMWs?

That's when the sh*t will really hit the fan!

keith said...

I was riding the train back home today and the guy next to me, banker-type, was reading the carnage on the front page.

He turns to me and says, verbatim: "can you believe this? man, nobody saw this coming"

And I told him to go read housingpanic when he got home

it takes brass balls to to a great investor said...

Just what the doctor ordered.We need to rid the weak hands.This is very healthy.If this did not occur you would seen more unhealthy risk taking.We know who is swimming naked when the tide goes out, warren buffet.I only have about 20k to lose in the market.I started out at 22k now at about 15k.I'm young so I'm a buyer now.Stick to your goals and do not panic.what you are seeing is panic and the weak hands bailing.We all know home prices were way overvalued so no surprise here.Expect 60% declines in bubble areas.I think it is a great time to buy in certain areas.

Anonymous said...

Nobody saw it coming.

The interesting part starts @{8:00}

Anonymous said...

Things are going to get really cute when they declare a Credit Card Holiday for about a month or so.
Purely opinion,,but I can't see how these banks can send the money to the retailers.
I suggest having some green cash available for groceries.
Of course, if you have food stamps, they'll work too.

Anonymous said...

Oct 6

Anonymous said...

I saw it coming. Have acted accordingly, sold the "second home", eliminated all debt and built up a cash cushion, reduced market exposure in retirement accounts and cash accounts...... AND I STILL am getting killed here on what I still have in the market. Holy mole poblano!

real estate 101 said...

Hey Keith, are you still working in the UK or are you unemployed yet?

I bought a shotgun and a months worth of supplies this week. I'm loaded up with everything else of real value and no debt.

Real estate is slowing, but still selling in our area. Prices are still about the same, no significant decrease. That's weird with seeing the news in CA, AZ and FL.

Cinch said...

lets inflate the alternative energy industry and see if we can generate some jobs

create tax incentives for companies to move back to the USA

extend unemployment benefit and encourage REIC workers to seek other career paths

the FIRE economy needs to be marginalize and refocus to help create an economy base on production rather than consumption

wait a minute..I'm smoking some good pot here, ignore my nonsense above

sorry

Cinch

curtstest said...

Whether we saw this coming only matters if we acted accordingly. I tried to, so I feel OK.

I'm young, married with a family of four kids and just out of school (law school) this last April. I have a secure job with a judge through at least Jan. 2010. We have one 15 year old minivan that leaks oil and I commute on my bike to work every day. We rent.

We've prepared where we could, but you can only save and do so much while in school. We have about 6 months worth of savings in the bank and no debt (just paid off the student loans). But if we have health problems, that can be used up very quickly. I'm just glad I didn't saddle myself with a home that I had to sell right now.

I am very nervous about what will happen, but I feel like I've done the best I could and that things will work out for me. This isn't the end of the world, but times will be tough for all of us.

I just hope America learns a lesson from this, and maybe we can start moving forward in another 5 years or so.

deep Thought said...

Even though this was totally obvious over 2 years ago for me (thanks to HP!), I'm still quite surprised at the extent of the financial destruction we are now witnessing. Must be the incredible leverage that was applied to housing & mortgages.

With the incredible bailouts we have witnessed which failed to stem the tide of despair, I'm just trying to figure out when, if ever, it will be safe to get back in the market. Past crashes bounced off the bottom pretty sharply, but I'm not sure we have seen anything quite like this with the credit markets essentially frozen so I'm not so sure we won't be in for a decade+ of horizontal stock trends like we saw after the Great Crash.

That said, for now I'm sitting pretty -- solid job (federal govt.), money in the bank, no stock exposure for the last 9 months+, gold, guns & ammo, low debt, and shopping for rural land.

Thanks HP!

les said...

Very bad in the Inland Empire.

Unemployment should reach 10% this month.

Business are being robbed everyday.

People are getting mugged walking home.

Many business are going up in literal flames (Jewish lightning, arson+insurance fraud)

REB said...

Chicago (cook county) is going to halt foreclosure evictions:
http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2008/10/cook-county-sheriffs-office-to-suspend-mortgage-foreclosure-evictions.html

Can you imagine how that's going to mess everything up even more? Folks who were already struggling to pay their mortgages can now stop and live RENT FREE. This is plainly illegal and banks will likely have to go to court to force the sheriff to enforce the law. Banks can't sell the houses if they can't get the residents out, now can they? Less money for banks = bigger economic mess.

Anonymous said...

"Things are going to get really cute when they declare a Credit Card Holiday for about a month or so. "

I mentioned that same thing to a few people and they thought I was nuts. I hope I am home and not at the gas station when that happens.

Uncommonadvice said...

Keep your job and pay your bills - you'll come out stronger on the other side.

Jeff said...

I work for a defense contractor. Our business is stronger than ever, we're making healthy profits, hardly any debt that I know of, and our main customer owns the printing press. I got lucky when landing this job. Aerospace (other than Boeing) is still booming.

Anonymous said...

Riots and Mayhem in Hong Kong on Stock Losses

Tonto said...

Gentleman,

$700 Billion Bailout- COMPLETE
Global Rate Cut- COMPLETE

I am very afraid of the Governments next attempt to stabilize this market by targeting the source; Housing Prices.

Behind closed doors different absurd socialist ideas are being floated discussing buying vacant homes, cutting principal for delinquent borrowers who have negative equity, and the list goes on and on.

Mark my words that an attempt to intervene in natural supply/demand house price stabilization will only make this crisis worse, and last longer.

Anonymous said...

All I hear around me is denial. Don't sell your stocks, you'll miss out when they go shooting back up. Now is a buying opportunity for houses, stocks, whatever. We've been through trying times before. Blah, blah, blah. The blogs are 180° the other way. Sell dollars and buy Euros - no wait, the Euro is going to hell too. Financial blogs have turned into survivalist blogs. Sell your gold and buy canned goods and ammunition.

I haven't got a clue what to do next.

Anonymous said...

A special department meeting called for this Fri. Layoffs are in the air. This is going to be very ugly...

Anonymous said...

I am from vancouver and can tell you that the article Keith posted from Miro Cernetig is indicative of most of the reporting here in that they still keep asking realtors like "Condo King Bob Rennie" if the market is strong. Amazingly, the realtors, just like in the US, tell them that everything is just fine, it's different here.

Anonymous said...

The wisest thing I've done in the last four years is to consistently follow the doom and gloomers of this renegade web site. I thank you all for having the courage to speak the truth. I sold my house in '03, made 200K which has sat quietly in an ING account making 3+1/2% , no wait, 3% interest. I have no debt at all, a 60K a year job with Raytheon, cheap rent, good health, and I sleep peacefully at night. And I owe it all to HP.Com. Thanks Keith. My only regret? That I couldn't get any of my friends to follow me. Sadly, most of them are in fear or panicing right now.

Anonymous said...

Hahahahaha...this website like most of the blogs out there is good entertainment. Does anyone really think that the world will end because the DJIA (a number made up by a private corporation of all things) ends up at 7000 or 5000 or 1000? I think not.

What can't harm me, I don't fear. That which can harm me, I keep my distance from. That which can kill me, I do fear. Survivalism is 99% attitude. Remember that.

Prozac Caused this said...

“Do not apply for a home-equity loan when taking this drug.”

http://tinyurl.com/4psd3g

Anonymous said...

Food stamps, thats it.

I need to find a job, but Michigan's job market sucks after our government let cheap imports into America without fair tarrifs. The auto market is connected to many other types of local industries. The playing field was never balanced. And now get ready for new car dealerships from China flooding our great land.

But who cares about American jobs anyway?

Nobody that I know of.

Sincerely, f*cked in the a*s.

King Bush said...

Hi all,

This is president Bush. I just wanted to say DON'T Panic! Everything will be fine.

G W

West Coast Willie said...

Anyone buy the RTH puts like I quietly advised last week? I hope so. This market is like trying to hang onto the back of a whale.

There is the potential for very big gains in a matter of days that will more than offset the losses of those who went down with the ship.

This market is hughly oversold and there will be an explosive snap back rally. Look at the vix, number of new lows, etc. The world is coordinating a massive effort.

Get yourself some SPY calls pronto.(only with money you don't need for the next 5 years LOL-way to sideline the Cramericans Cramer)

p.s. Obama was phenomenal yesterday. I mean "that one."

keith said...

I'm thinking RTH puts tomorrow Charlie

Buy why spy calls? bear market relief rally into EOM?

Or just screw it, back to the beach.

This market is 100% pure gambling now. It's not investing.

Look at RSX, EWZ, FXI, EWT and the other country ETFs. Down 70%+ in many cases.

70%

That's a crash of historic proportions. And it could happen here too.

70% ruins lives. 70% puts people out of the market for a generation. And 70% is a panic unlike anything you'll see in your lifetime again.

And it could go lower still.

Invest in what works said...

I have a few words about this stock crash. SDS, DUG, and QID. There is a way to make some really good money on this financial problem. Everytime the Government does a futile rate cut, or jaw bones a rally, it is just like adding on dips in a bull market. Simple, easy straight forward. We are in for a year or so more of this, and as the indexes go down, if you own these, you will have profits for the whole period. Just watch your history, and once you see it align with the bottom of 2002, take off some of the position. This situation is FAR worse than then, and the monkeys in charge are making sure of that. Another year of profits while things trend lower and suckers buy low and get their heads chopped off.
Just my thoughts. There is always a way to make money.

Anonymous said...

Keith, I would compare the current situation to that of an astronomer who manages to predict with perfect timing that a giant meteorite is going to crash into the earth, destroying the planet. That foresighted person might be absolutely right, but they are going to get blasted into smithereens along with everyone else. I hope that people reading blogs such as this took some various prudent measures which will limit the damage to them personally. But the fact remains that in a general economic meltdown, particularly if it leads to social chaos, that there is no real safe haven. We're all going to have to work together, including the jerks who drank the kool aid and believed the hucksters who equated debt as being an asset, and try to dig ourselves out of this mess as best as we can.

i've had it said...

i feel bad for my friends and family. most of them had a lot invested in the market and they are now hurting badly because their retirement portfolios are down by at least one-third. i think they are paralyzed now, not knowing whether to keep holding or sell.

I told them many, many times since June 2007 after the Bear hedge collapse that we were in big trouble. None of them listened. They thought I was a crackpot. Ahhh, just little bumps in the road, they said. Just a blip; the market will go back up soon. I told them the Dow would be going to 8,000...they all laughed.

Well, I gave them the "i told you so" a few weeks ago but I can't say anything else anymore because I know they are simply reeling from what's happened.

Anonymous said...

I work for blackwater USA, I am making so much money I will be able to ride this through with no problems.
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• And yes - Free lunch every day?


.
Too good to be true? Well there is a company that provides all this and much more - we are Blackwater Worldwide.



America's Veterans Serving America
...Again
Boy am I lucky Bush sent us to war.

West Coast Willie said...

Keith

I think you should probably stay on the beach if you are going to lose sleep on this one.

This is a trade for those with the luxury to watch the market.

I think the RTH put move is over for now. Come back to that after the market regains 500 points.

But spy or QQQQ calls Nov. or December. They should do very well this week.

I agree SDS and SKF are good short trading vehicles.

Kudos to anyone long GFI today. Anyone have an explanation for why the metal stocks went crazy today?

yasmin said...

ditto i've had it. except i did manage to convince my dad to invest with europac. other than that, ridicule or apathy.

Anonymous said...

I got out of mutual funds and into cash when the stock market was 10,500. I plan to stay in cash until the market hits 8,200 (altho I think the market will briefly hit 7,100). Once the market hits 8,200, I will be shoving my money into the market with both hands. In 2011, I will have more than doubled the money I put into the market when it was 8,200. In the years after 2011, my friends, not retired as I will be, will often express the wish that they had timed the market such as I.

For some, this is a crisis of a lifetime. For others, this will be an opportunity of a lifetime.

Which will it be for you?

BB said...

Mish's blog is exploding with news of longer term treasury auctions FAILING today!

That's right. The rest of the world is snapping up 3-month treasuries, but auctions for 2, 10, and 30 year US Treasuries are having to be put back on the auction block for another go round. Looks like the market is betting that they should be getting a better return to hold our currency and give us a loan for longer than just a short period of time.

This spells T R O U B L E folks.

When treasury auctions for US debt begin to fail -the wheels come off.

How will the FED try to cork this leak? Raise interest rates?

Hmmmmmmmmm......

Rock -meet Hard Place.

Anonymous said...

a good friend lost 4-5 million in the stock market. I've warned him but he did no listen, he listened to his financial advisor.

Anonymous said...

Got myself a well paid secure gov't job and husband and I are still renting/saving. Looking forward to when the prices fall back down in NOVA so we can buy. Now that is finally looking like a reality by the end of the year or following year.

Anonymous said...

Colleagues at work are freaking out. Home value dropped 35% so far (Miami), 401K dropped 40% to date, company talking about cutting compensation by 20% instead of layoffs. This is ARMAGEDEON! A lot of people have reached PANIC stage.

Miss Goldbug said...

Two people in the front office were talking today. The financial mess is what everyone is talking about these days!

Quote"house prices kept going higher for no reason" or "why even contribute to my 401k, because it keeps going down"?

yoski said...

"lets inflate the alternative energy industry and see if we can generate some jobs

create tax incentives for companies to move back to the USA"

That sounds to me like you're one of 'em faggot, communist, anti-American types.
Your kind should be shipped off to Guantanamo and waterboarded.

Roger said...

Still too many people I know that are wondering if they should buy back in now in both stocks and real estate. Call me when the sheeple start sounding like HPers at the peak when someone brings these up - then it'll be time to move in.

Anonymous said...

Well... I live in sunny La..La..land California and new real estate listings are at 2007 bubble prices. I live by the beach and I swear it doesn't seem to effect this community. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone..drinking carries on. If someone else lives in California correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see problems yet..again I live in the beach area. Actually Im seeing people from other states moving to the area.

Anonymous said...

"Hahahahaha...this website like most of the blogs out there is good entertainment. Does anyone really think that the world will end because the DJIA (a number made up by a private corporation of all things) ends up at 7000 or 5000 or 1000? I think not."

DJIA @ 1000 would be a disaster, it's not a number, those are jobs. If a company goes down so does the workers.

My son has lost his job in the last month, along with his father-in-law. The people I work with that are close to retirement are losing there money. Your best investment is a few guns, plenty of ammo and gold to trade for food.

I bet you thought everything on these boards in 05,06 were b.s too, I hope your right on this one!!!!!!!!!!

thomas jefferson said...

In September 2006, I told my dad about this stuff one day when he stopped by for a visit (he lives about six hours north of here).

I mentioned that he should probably sell his big old motor home (RV) before gasoline went too high. He said that he couldn't sell it because he, "owed too much on it." (Yeah, WTF?) I'm assuming he was underwater on the debt on the RV. Anyway, I continued telling him about the housing bubble and how the debt was being sold off to investors and how this would explode the American -- if not the Gobal -- financial system. He became so offended that he went into a huff and got in his truck and drove away and I haven't seen him since. He didn't even call or arrange to visit when my daughter, his first granddaughter, was born three months later. Last year, he sent me a letter telling me I was suffering from mental illness and that he hoped I would seek help.

Naturally, this didn't please the lady of the house, who promptly banned him from the premises (and this from she who had been scrupulously diplomatic this whole time, despite numerous "actionable" issues over the years). I told him our economy was going straight over a cliff and he looked at me like I was nuts, which he later formalized with his letter. I haven't seen him since. And he's never met his grandson, born this past March, or his granddaughter, now 21 months old. His loss.

I guess my point is that he is in his 60s, retired on a state pension, and he smugly told me that when he started getting social security that he'd be making more money than when he was working. All his life, he spent his money on paying for loans on all manner of toys, motorcycles, boats, cars, trucks, campers, RVs, you name it, he's borrowed money to "own" it. He is only one of an entire generation who was trained like rats to believe reflexively that debt was the way to get what you want. One time when he visited, I muted a teevee commercial while we were watching a program. He asked me what I was doing, like seeing the commercial really mattered! We mute the commercials routinely, but for him, the commercials are just a part of the whole "entertainment" package he's lapping up.

I hope he has loved his life of debt and buying cheap consumer crap, because his emotionally impoverished attitude has alienated him from his family and his grandchildren. It's sad, but he probably represents tens of millions of boomers who think exactly the same way: A teevee in the kitchen, living room and bedroom and Saturday football, Sunday football or NASCAR or golf always on. Duck-on-a-stick, ruffled faux Dollywood/Branson/Gatlinburg decor in his house. Country music on the radio of his truck. A retired civil servant (prison guard). Really, his heart and soul died years ago, killed by his dull life as a debt slave, but he was happy to bar-bee-que on his back porch now and then and pay the monthly debt coupons and work a job that slowly incinerated his humanity so he could afford to get up and do it again, week after week, year after year. And look what it got him -- old.

I don't know or really even care if he understands what I was talking about two years ago. I have a feeling he might have a dim inkling, like an animal in the woods who smells smoke ahead of the raging forest fire, but he's not the type to admit he was clueless or even wrong. Proud and dumb, I guess.

(Sorry for this sad and, in many ways, stupid story. That's how it is here.)

Out at the peak said...

I work for an equipment vendor and our sales are outstanding this year.

I imagine our area is a lagging indicator because our dot-com layoffs didn't happen until about two years after the dot-com crash.

So that's scary.

What sucks is that with the market crash, I lost all my profits from shorting Lehman Brothers. It could have been worse; I could have not had those profits and I'd be red for the year.

I went to my girlfriend's dad's house and he and his fiance told me they changed up their 401K yesterday and also called his fiance's mom to do the same. At that moment, I really saw the great unwinding first hand.

Today my dad called to make sure I didn't lose too much. He has no idea where he stands as he gets quarterly statements. He cannot alter his investment until he's 60 (for another ~4 years).

The panic is hitting lower and lower on the bracket levels.

oneclickplus said...

Got cash "under the mattress" ... no stocks ... no debt ... mortgage free. I don't need credit so I haven't noticed a thing personally. Wait! I did notice that the price of popcord went up.

Bill in St. Aug said...

I went to Target last night to make some minor purchases and the place was DEAD. It is usually packed around that time of evening (6pm or so). Yesterday, it was like I was walking around the place after closing.

I do like my new pillows, though.

Anonymous said...

What a sick asshole. If he wanted to fucking kill himself then fine. But why oh why did he have to kill his entire family? Is this part of Indian culture or something? There was a case here in Naperville in which a man killed his two kids and then tried to kill himself too.

Anonymous said...

Housing Panic helped me. My father died two months ago today. Realtor listed the 5 bedroom, 3 bath house in nice older neighborhood for $255,lots of lookers, no offers. So, after 6 days, told realtor to lower to $215. Got cash offer for $180, said no. Got another offer for $210, then first buyers came thru with $215 cash. Other houses sitting around for months at $285-$325. Anyway, sold after 12 days on market. I really feel like I did the right thing by being the first on my block to sell at a reasonable price...marking to market. YEAH!

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, I have no debt and have lived frugally for years, rent and drive a 2000 Focus. Money in the bank. I feel so cool....for a huge change.

Anonymous said...

TED SPREAD is currently at 391

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

What is MONEY.

MONEY is a measure of Unit Labor Worked.

Many of todays investors forgot that concept.

So today it is all about Credit Worthiness or a lack of it.

http://www2.highlandstoday.com/
content/2008/oct/08/la-children-
of-the-great-depression/

Rose Panzarella, 86, speaks about her experience during the Great Depression during a group interview at Balmoral Assisted Living Center on Tuesday in Lake Placid.

Panzarella spoke about her father working for the WPA saying "he had to do it he had no other work, we had to eat."

"I saw people jumping out of windows and it could happen again."

Anonymous said...

"I work for a defense contractor. Our business is stronger than ever, we're making healthy profits, hardly any debt that I know of, and our main customer owns the printing press."

The MIC will need to undergo a major retooling in the near future.

Swords into plowshares.

The TRILLION$ wasted on
'defense programs/projects' have contributed MIGHTILY to our national bankruptcy.

Heckuva job!

lemans spank tech said...

Do any of you have a noose I can borrow.I cannot take the losses anymore.I have been wiped out, 50 years of work down the tubes.when will it end?

Susan said...

I've been a devoted follower of HousingPanic for the past couple of years, and while I support most of what is said here, I have to say recently that I don't think things are as "doom as gloom" as it's being painted. At least I hope not, because there is no safe haven in this "doom" and the world as we know it will change in a very negative way. With all this negative energy, I can only hope that we can turn things are around and try to be a bit more optimistic about how to overcome the obstacles in front of us instead of being a victim of the outcome (while not drinking from the "kool-aid"). There are some markets that are going to do well and a lot that are going to go down...but it's survival of the fittest and those markets/companies will be bought by bigger and stronger companies. I can't help but feel that the election has made the intensity of the economy that much more of a hot topic. I saw in the newspaper that some guy got shot for wearing an Obama shirt. This election is a very heated and historical one and I feel that the anxiety of the new president (which is greatly dividing the nation), the uncertainly of the war(s) and economy is adding to the panic. I think next year, there will be a breather for everyone and things will get better...because as a society we WANT them to get better. Enough will the doom and gloom, and start thinking of solutions. Huddling at home with your money in your mattress is not exactly the way to attack this situation.

Anonymous said...

He turns to me and says, verbatim: "can you believe this? man, nobody saw this coming"

And I told him to go read housingpanic when he got home
-----------------------------

I think what he really means is nobody WANTED to see this coming. It didn't take much effort once you WANTED to look.

Anonymous said...

it is still not too late to cash out of stocks and go short the market. I don't think another 30% down is out of the question.

It is going to get really ugly, ugly like we have never seen before.

Anonymous said...

We are very busy. Business is good. I am hoping my competition that depends on Venture Capital will Bite the dust this year. However I am sick to see this going down, and it is very scary. Doing the math on the Dow we are down 34.64 % since the High of 14,164.53 on 10/09/2007. The Dow is down 16.93 % since 9/29/2008. The fed lowered the rate to 1.5, loaning way too much money now. Worst case on my DOW calculations; we can see a three year decline by 83% to a bottom of 2407.97 like what happend from 1929 - 1932. Best case is what Cramer is saying

Anonymous said...

oh, AIG gets another 35 billion or so. Now we, the tax payers, are into AIG for 120 billion.

Any bets that we will never see that 120 billion again? anybody?

perhaps the AIG executives needed another retreat.

I love how the retreat was justified. along the lines of "things are really depressing at AIG, so they needed to take management out to a retreat otherwise they might start leaving for other jobs".

Loved it. what other companies are they going to go to? Lehman? Bear Sterns? give me a break. It was one last suck at the teat.

Anonymous said...

how long till they dispense with the niceties and abolish private property?

trent joffers said...

"I work for a defense contractor... I got lucky when landing this job."

I could have followed you but, due to ethics, I just couldn't design WMD's or enable the bad behavior of others by transforming idiots into supervillians.

Anonymous said...

Typical Democrat drama.

So how is it out there? The same as any other day. It is what you make of it. Yesterday I took the day off work and went to an apple orchard. It rained the whole morning. We had the orchard to ourselves. Even my 2-and-4 year old girls know better than to let a little rain get them down. That's more than I can say for a lot of HPers.

Everything you bring up in your headline has happened before, and it will happen again. I don't see the big deal. I've been laid off, fired, ripped off, and broke. And by broke I mean outdoors, sharing wine under a bridge, bumming quarters broke. The kind of broke most of you spoiled brats will never experience in your life. There are plenty of failures in life - true genius is shown in how you recover from it. Right now most of you are showing poor recovery skills.

too late said...

I am angry, angry, angry. How dare AIG demand more funds after their ridiculous party? What is to be done? Where does it end? I demand rules, responsibility. I demand the cessation of the wholesale pouring of dollars into these businesses, as if the same management that presided over the collapse of any given bailout company could possibly resurrect it with nothing but more cash! Ridiculous. Those executives deserve jail. I work hard, spend thriftily, make do. Where the hell are my public works jobs? My New Deal? I should have started a damn insurance company.

Incumbents out, my vote, my one tiny voice.

Peter T said...

I anticipate the crash, but my life as many others is still on the line, because I need my job to feed my family. I could survive a pay cut, part time for a while, even no job for six month, but we couldn't survive being out of a job for a year.

Anonymous said...

"I need to find a job, but Michigan's job market sucks after our government let cheap imports into America without fair tarrifs. The auto market is connected to many other types of local industries. The playing field was never balanced. And now get ready for new car dealerships from China flooding our great land.

But who cares about American jobs anyway?

Nobody that I know of.

Sincerely, f*cked in the a*s."

The US is still the largest manufacturer in the world. Why don't you move away from Michigan? Or are you the center of the universe, waiting for some great company to set up shop in your neighborhood? I've got news for you - your area has peaked. You can sit and whine, or you can man up and go get a job where there are jobs. Are you a self-sufficient man, or a welfare parasite? Oh, wait, you're UAW? I already know the answer, Nancy.

Anonymous said...

Hanky Panic you can't denial it now.

It all out panic.

Let's NATIONALIZE THE BANKS

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/
081008/meltdown_paulson.html


The Bush administration is considering taking ownership stakes in a number of U.S. banks as one option it might use to deal with a serious credit crisis, an administration official said Wednesday.

Adam "SlowHand" Smith said...

Yeah, my family thought I was nuts when I explained all the problems that were bubbling up from below the surface, and that this kind of information was coming from respected economists, e.g. Christopher Thornberg, Noriel Roubini, etc. Never-mind that housing bubbles are hardly novel: this is the 3rd such cycle I can remember.

While it's satisfying not to have been wrapped up in the market frenzy, and trapped in an overpriced asset, it also sucks to be right on something so devastating for others.

Funny, but I've been listening Bob Brinker's radio show for quite awhile now, just to see what he's telling his listeners (plus I learn from his vast knowledge of bonds, etc). He's quite the pompous ass, but whatever..... He's forgotten more about finances than I'll ever know. But that doesn't bestow him with clairvoyance, and he's been just as blinded by his prior experiences to miss market trends.

Anyway, I remember one weekend back in June when he tore into the so-called "Cassandras" who had warned of impending problems on Wall Street. He poo-poohed these types as 'chicken littles', and stripped them up and down for scaring people out of the market.

Of course, the market had experienced the last real prolonged rally at the beginning of a bear market, and he was chastizing the 'chicken littles' who caused some investors to miss the 20% run-up during that period. I actually didn't get involved in that 'sucker rally', as I didn't know how long it would last, etc.

Of course, the market has given up those gains, and then some: anyone who bought and held from that time is now upside down in their stocks!

So it's taken a few months for Brinker to finally "get it", and I've not heard him apologize to HIS LISTENERS for suggesting it was safe to get back in the market.

The irony here is Brinker repeatedly called these naysayers "Cassandras", what he apparently thought means "false prophet".

Apparently Brinker is unfamiliar with the origins of the name "Cassandra", as she was a gifted prophet with the ability to accurately foretell the future, but was cursed by the Gods such that anyone who heard her words would not believe her!

So in a sense, Brinker was more accurate than he ever realized by calling these bears "Cassandras"!

Benji Franklin said...

Anyone wanting to know where we're headed from a technical analysis standpoint might want take a look at:

http://w3.cantos.com/

Click on "Charts of the Week".

David Linton (CEO of Updata) is calling for further drops (based on point & click, Ichimoku charts), with a target for the S&P around 750.

In his (and my) opinion, we ain't seen nuthin' yet!

(BTW, his video podcasts are also available thru iTunes, although sadly this past week's video was the last one he'll be making for some time.)

jim said...

Gentlemen. Ladies. Chatbots. Even DOPES.
You folks here, and at Ben jones blog, and patrick.net, and housing doom, saved my ass. I was all set to start buying a condo, then i saw something about "the housing bubble."

I am down 5%(Roughly) on my investments, but i expect to make that back and then some in the next couple of weeks. I would hav ebeen down 30% if not for you guys.
I would have made 100% if i had just let it ride on your advice and my instincts, but i couldn't do that. I am about as prepared as I can be for a major economic upheaval, and have warned my family and friends to varying degrees of success. I can sit here and say "I told you so" to 99% of people i know.

I don't know what the coming years may bring, but i have slept better for the past 2 after reading the information on these blogs.

Paulson Bite me said...

You can't keep on saying that it's a temporary emergency.

jim said...

" I have a few words about this stock crash. SDS, DUG, and QID."

Holy shit yes. Also, DXD.

/SKF why did you hurt me you bitch. I loved you. Then, you left me in the cold at the prom.

S said...

I Take Refuge in the Buddha
I Take Refuge in the Sangha
I Take Refuge in the Dharma.

Namu Amida Butsu.

For the love of god get out now said...

SIFMA recommended early close 2:00 ET of Friday........Here it comes!

Jim said...

Laid off in June, from-a bank (not a lender, but techie)-of course. Severance package goes through end of Jan 09, 3 interviews this week so I should be alright.
410k down and individual broker account down 33% overall in the last 1 1/2 years.
I've followed HP for the last 4 years and stood clear of even considering buying a house. Watched and warned many idiots not to buy, but somehow they just "walked Zombie-like towards the light"!
I get a kick out of those that lied on their loans, yet somehow it's the "gu-ment's fault" everything has gone to sh*t. Plenty of blame to go around from the banks to the mortgage brokers to the "gu-ment" to the realtors....well, you know the deal. I just hope when it is time for me to get in line to buy a house, that Joe (dumb ass) six pack (with credit rating in the toilet) isn't standing in front of me because some new "gu-ment" program has wiped his credit rating clean...that would be classic and would really just complete the loop!

Anonymous said...

wait a minute..I'm smoking some good pot here, ignore my nonsense above

They might be good ideas... but it's sort of like starting to board up the windows of your Florida home, just as the winds of the huricane have just gone to 100 mph.

Too little too late.

Anonymous said...

Right before the recent stock market correction I told my neighbor to get out NOW . My neighbor told me that I would be better off watching cartoons than read the sources I read .

We know what happened and I don't say a word to my neighbor friend .
Many People listen to the talking points on all channels . See where it got them .

Baby boomers are really getting killed . Baby boomers down by 30% or more on their stock holdings ,down 30% or more on their real estate holdings . I would say just off hand that the Boomers are screwed and will be forced into
working at least 5to7 years longer because this economy is not going to turn around for at least a decade . The younger people actually have the opportunity to buy stocks cheaper and buy real estate cheaper and actually build wealth over the next 30 years ,hopefully for them .

I hear stories of older people losing life long savings now and that's not a pretty picture because these people were actually savers and not short term flipper gamblers .

Bring back a good job based to America and rebuild .Hopefully other countries will start producing for their own people . Trade between countries is a good thing but the proper trade tax should be put on imports .

I stocked up on can goods ,just in case of problems (maybe a months worth ),and I have been in cash for awhile now ,no debt except a mortgage I can afford . One months worth of cash on hand ,just in case . I figure if anything happens if it can't be solved within a couple of weeks ,than its mad max time any way you look at it . I do keep thinking of those people that were surviving on mud cakes when the speculators drove the oil prices up .

I have been waiting for the axe to fall for 31/2 years now ,and now the World knows about the bubbles and all the other crazy economic house of cards that people in power set up .
I think that the meltdown blew up in a more dramatic way than I expected ,in part due to the panic driven approach that Paulson and the Feds resorted to .I wanted us to take the medicine after Katrina hit ,but no the liars/cheer-leaders had to drag it out another three years and
create more Houses of Cards.
Can't wait for the next chapter ,but I long for a life where I get rewarded for right action .

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

The less we have to maintain, the easier our lives will be.

It's nice to know there are still sane people like yourself who chose not to get caught up in the housing feeding frenzy.

Perhaps when all this is done, and the rot washed out of the system, we'll actually have housing that makes sense.


Anonymous said...
The wisest thing I've done in the last four years is to consistently follow the doom and gloomers of this renegade web site. I thank you all for having the courage to speak the truth. I sold my house in '03, made 200K which has sat quietly in an ING account making 3+1/2% , no wait, 3% interest. I have no debt at all, a 60K a year job with Raytheon, cheap rent, good health, and I sleep peacefully at night. And I owe it all to HP.Com. Thanks Keith. My only regret? That I couldn't get any of my friends to follow me. Sadly, most of them are in fear or panicing right now.

Anonymous said...

No, this can't be true!

HUD: Five Million Fraudulent Mortgages Held by Illegals

Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Some five million fraudulent home mortgages are in the hands of illegal aliens, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

It's not known how many of those have contributed to the subprime housing mortgage meltdown, but it has affected every state, including Arizona.

The problem began years ago when banks were forced to give mortgages without confirming social security numbers or borrower identification. As a result, illegal immigrants were able to obtain home mortgages which they could not afford.

One illegal alien was arrested this year in Tucson after allegedly using a stolen social security number to buy two homes and rack up over $780,000 in bad debt.

Source: http://kfyi.com

Weazels ate my retierment said...

I have often felt stupid for my decisions and the fact that I was so easily influenced during the tech boom in California.

Granted I did make a nice sum of money selling stock options that I had but somehow I missed the peak and held on too long. Still got out with a nice chunk of change but always felt stupid for being so caught up in the hype.

What really hurt was my ignorance of the AMT back in 2001. That was painful because at that point, the remaining options I had vested and had not yet sold, had triggered an AMT bill that was bigger than the value of all the options I could possibly sell.

What to do? Sell the stock and drum up some cash to pay the entire bill? It seemed like the best thing to do but I went for plan B:

I used all those "free money" credit card offers where you can write a check for 10,000 dollars with no interest for 6 months.

During those 6 months, Sept. 11 had hit and the stock tanked even more. Now I had loans on my cards worth over 50,000 and the clock was ticking down.

I ended up waiting with the remote hope that somehow the stock would rise up in price again. I got very lucky and in Jan. I sold all my options and existing stock on the day that particular stock peaked. I felt incredibly lucky to have gotten out on that day as it was just a "feeling" I had from all the news on the MSM.

Paid off the bills to the credit card companies, paid off the car and other loans, put some cash aside and sold everything and moved to Europe. I didn't move because I hated America or anything like that. I just always loved the cities in Europe and since I had paid more than my fair shair of taxes (acutally a prepament when you look at AMT) I felt I had done my patriotic duty to support the economy already.

Now I'm working as a photographer over here and spend my days photographing beautiful European models after having used the cash to buy studio equipment and rent a space.

It's not an easy job though but I love it ;-)

Never did invest in a 401k all those years when I could have, now even there I feel incredibly lucky to have the opportunity now or in the near future to put aside money. But I don't think I'll bother, the income from my model photography biz is growing quite fast and I prefer to invest in my own business instead of somebody elses.

Plus with the downturn, I reckon that the market for certain things will continue to increase i.e. cigs, booze, magazines, things that people use to ease the pain of bad times.

Anonymous said...

Reports have come from a London source that gold futures contracts are being settled in cash only at the COMEX, rather than with physical gold metal. That leaves would-be buyers without the metal they wish to take on delivery under contract. IS THAT NOT A DEFAULT.

==================

Full Article: Corruption, Whispers & Receivership

yoski said...

"The US is still the largest manufacturer in the world. "
...of happy meals, McMansions and toxic debt. We all see now how far that got us.

Anonymous said...

DEREGULATION......DEREGULATION:
funny fox news was furious over a man who held up a bank and got away with a few thousand dollars....
They will get furious over that but not corporate theives who have raped this country.
I can't stand that fucking channel.
I can not believe they just gave that fucking asshole Hannity multi million dollar 4 year contract, on top of his 100 million dollar radio contract.
I guess it pays to be a high class hate whore.

Roccman said...

HAVE A NICE DIE OFF SUKAZ!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Since we might have National Health Care and maybe soon the gov in the Banks will it be acceptable to call my fellow Americans comrades?

I must admit ive always thought it was catchy.

Anonymous said...

Susan said:"Enough will the doom and gloom, and start thinking of solutions. Huddling at home with your money in your mattress is not exactly the way to attack this situation."


So Susan, do you think if we stop taking about how bad things will get that it the economy will get better?

Lets see....happy thoughts...solutions...will make all this bad stuff disappear!

If you would have been reading this blog like you say, you would know we have posted solutions that would this crisis - the truth is our govermint won't listen to the people and acted in their own interests.

Now, go back to where you came from, and remember to keep repeating happly positive thoughts to yourself... would you please?

Anonymous said...

Is anyone else amazed at the similarities in the weaknesses of both global banking and global food supply? I think the locavores are onto something that would greatly improve finance...

Keeping systems on a human scale actually reduces waste and graft. Defying laws of nature and logic only leads to debasement and destruction.

All these years the titans of industry- and business-as-usual have been telling us that greener, cleaner, more transparent instruments and technologies would only pencil out to economic armageddon. And now we find ourselves there at their very hands. Nice work, geniuses!

I cling to my belief that something better can grow out of the compost of this destruction. I suggest anyone feeling blue get their hands on a copy of William McDonough's Cradle to Cradle. Real, enduring value is out there waiting to be designed into our current broken systems.

Regards, Keith... L.

Anonymous said...

"AIG to taxpayers: Pay no attention to the $440,000 spa trip"

"If we ever needed an argument against using taxpayer money to bail out private companies who made bad decisions and are teetering on the brink of extinction, this is it."

"Less than one week after the U.S. government forked out $85 billion related to the American International Group (AIG) mess, the AIG executives took a little jaunt to a California spa and spent $440,000 on their stay."...

http://tinyurl.com/3pqmpw

Nick said...

Hey DOPES, just Google "Sheriff Tom Dart Stops Foreclosure Evictions". This October 15 it will be TWELVE FULL MONTHS/ONE YEAR without me making a mortgage payment. Yet I am still in my beautiful townhouse. The only payments I make are my utility, insurance and property tax payments. For obvious reasons.

Also, in Cook County, even if property values fall, property taxes are going up! HA, HA, HA, LOL, LOL, LOL. I guess they really are socializing all of the losses. Fine with me.

Both McCain and Obama are tripping over themselves on how to help us "struggling homeowners". I am all for reducing my principal plus giving me a ten percent instant equity!

I told you time and again that in the end, we so called Fucked Borrowers will be fine and the losses will be socialized.

Anonymous said...

Jersey Girl

Sickened. Disgusted.

What can you do with the government we have?

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

No surprise to me - infact it should have been expected.

Naturally, the whole point of the "bail-outs" is so that those who gambled and lost, can still wine and dine off shrimp and caviar.

The rest can "eat cake".

The same will happen with the 700bil+$ tax-payer's "bail-out" for wall-street and housing gamblers.


Anonymous said...
"AIG to taxpayers: Pay no attention to the $440,000 spa trip"

"If we ever needed an argument against using taxpayer money to bail out private companies who made bad decisions and are teetering on the brink of extinction, this is it."

"Less than one week after the U.S. government forked out $85 billion related to the American International Group (AIG) mess, the AIG executives took a little jaunt to a California spa and spent $440,000 on their stay."...

http://tinyurl.com/3pqmpw

Paisano1 said...

PIMCO poised to become the Federal Reserve’s PIMP-CO

So it looks like the $1.7BB paid to shut up Bill Gross also bought his “free” services - Oh, aren’t we lucky! The incestuous relationships between business and Government have escalated to orgy-like proportions!

http://tinyurl.com/4a9h7m

Anonymous said...

"I haven't got a clue what to do next."

Consider buying some Gold.

Anonymous said...

"Does anyone really think that the world will end because the DJIA ends up at 7000 or 5000 or 1000?"

The world will not end, but this will hurt the economy. For example, people will spend less since they will have less money to spend, or that will be there perception due to the decrease in their net worth. Also, pension funds will have to decrease there payouts.

Anonymous said...

Prescott Bush would be proud.

Anonymous said...

"Boy am I lucky Bush sent us to war."

Disgusting.

Anonymous said...

"For some, this is a crisis of a lifetime. For others, this will be an opportunity of a lifetime."

Barring hyperinflation, we may see the DOW below 7000, and for sometime.

Anonymous said...

... faggot"

What a terrible thing to say.

Anonymous said...

Hahahahaha...this website like most of the blogs out there is good entertainment. Does anyone really think that the world will end because the DJIA (a number made up by a private corporation of all things) ends up at 7000 or 5000 or 1000? I think not.

You're an idiot buddy.

My friend used to work for Primus Canada until he got laid off recently. Primus Canada btw had profits of over 20% on top of revenue - unheard of.

So why did they lay him off? Because Primus US is losing money and is in debt. Because the US banks are unwilling to extend or renew loans, they might be forced to sell off the Canadian (wholly owned) subsidiary just so that they can pay the banks back.

So... A company which is making phenomenal amounts of cash - hand over fist - is forced to shrink because they have no access to cash. A company which should actually be growing.

It's not like the banks dont WANT to lend them money - it's a telephone company with a known number of subscribers. No gambling here - they know exactly how much money they'll get each month. The problem is that banks are force to hold on to cash in order to pay off their debts.

THIS is why the DOW is dropping like a rock. The seizing up of credit is forcing Main St. to lay off people even if they are making money.

And this is affecting companies in OTHER countries like Canada. Do you think German, Italian, Australian, Japanese companies are immune?

So you just keep thinking that DOW at 1000 means nothing... btw... did I mention you're an idiot?

Anonymous said...

"It is going to get really ugly, ugly like we have never seen before."

Spot on!

Anonymous said...

"I could have followed you but, due to ethics, I just couldn't design WMD's or enable the bad behavior of others by transforming idiots into supervillians."

Well said.

Anonymous said...

"Reports have come from a London source that gold futures contracts are being settled in cash only at the COMEX, rather than with physical gold metal. That leaves would-be buyers without the metal they wish to take on delivery under contract. IS THAT NOT A DEFAULT."

Yes it is.

Anonymous said...

People assume if they have a job everything is a.o.k.

What if the corporate paper market is frozen and the fed is so bankrupt it cannot prop it up?

Then you get no paycheck.

Anonymous said...

I've been paying ahead my small mortgage. If the bank goes under etc. then I'll have that obligation taken care of no matter what happens.

Anonymous said...

I cannot properly express how pissed off I am! I want heads and I want blood!!!

Yeah Iwas doing well in the boom. Is it my fault that I was in the industry that was most affected by it. I am an Architect. I own an Architectural frim. I went to through a professional degree program. I did their 3 year internship. I sat for the lisecsure exam. I invested in the System by Creating my own firm. I paid back my students loans. I did everything that this stupid and F'ed up system told me to do and for friggen what?

Only to have somone trade my work like a commidy. Only to work with in a run away inflated industry. Ony to have my complete income steam go away. Only to Borrow money to keep my 8 w2 employees, and to lose them when I had no borrowing power. I PAID people for 2 years on my credit only to lose them. I paid Their GD taxes with my f'ing credit. F.. the system tand those that created it. MY perminent residence is one the chopping block, ONLY because I Floated this F'ed up econmoy on my Stupid credit. Who is gonna help me now? No f'in' one!

Karma is a bitch and I want and demand a full swing. I want blood and I want heads.

When I choose to be an Architect, I did not sign up to CARRY the economy of this nation on my back. WE HAVE BAILED OUT THE GULITY ON THE BACKS OF THE PEOPLE. There needs to be retribution. There needs to be payment. This Government is NOT about the peole and it needs to be adjusted.

The pendlum swigs wide.

F' this Government! F' this fiat Money economy. These narket makers need to be looking over their shoulder!

Anonymous said...

"I was so easily influenced during the tech boom in California"

There's something a little different about technology. In general, when there's investment in hi-tech, there's usually some kind of benefit to the overall economy. The Korean economy, since the 70s, is a good example of it but in our situation, we tended towards the mania side; it didn't necessarily have to translate into the NASDAQ 5K bubble but instead, could have been a 1994 to 1997 type of steady state growth so that resources wouldn't have been wasted on boondoggles like conglomerate Global Crossing, vaporware Pets.com, and other less than kosher operations (Worldcom) at the peak. Realize, had IT and telecom proceeded at its original pre-1998 pace, we would have also had hi-speed internet and the rest but the difference would be a stable job sector and high savings since the NASDAQ today would be higher than its 1998 level w/ all the implosions. Realize, the current '08 crash, nevermind the one in '01-'02, has put us back there.

Now, fast forward to 2004 and instead of technology, we have a mania in real estate and private equity. Now, explain to me how that's suppose to help the real economy? Simply put, it's a complete waste of resources on non-tradable goods and services or washing-each-others-laundry economy. The only end result of this is a financial wipeout with no dividends like high speed computing or the net.

Anonymous said...

Happy peak-DJIA day! On this day one year ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record 14,164.53

Stuck in So Pa said...

I just got back from the gigantic antique auto show and flea market up in Hershey, PA yesterday. This is the grand daddy of them all and I go in mid-week when the crowds are not as vicious, still packed, but not as bad as Friday on.

Now, the old car hobby is somewhat immune from economic swings, at first, but I heard more than one dealer complain that "everybody is looking, nobody is buying." At our club’s hospitality tent, I got in a group's discussion when one gentleman asked if the high prices of old parts and cars at the show was "Hershey pricing" and I told him No, its "desperation pricing," that one last shove up the mountain to attempt to clear the peak before you slip off into the abyss. I went on to explain to the group that we saw the same thing in 1988-90. While the economy was going through the last housing cycle low, the old car hobby was still riding high, lagging the curve as it were. In 91-92 the old car hobby crashed down to earth, big time, and I picked up some previously unattainable bargains. The same thing will happen again, as I expect next years show (assuming there is a next year) to have noticeably lower prices. Time will tell!

Mr. Joey said...

linen 'n' things is going out of business forever. there are no longer house flippers and subprime buyers out to furnish their so-called homes.

what other chains will die, will pay the price?

Mr. Joey said...

we are also hypocrites for pushing these bailouts when we as a country ordered previous countries in this boat to privatize, liquidate, suffer high unemployment. now we are acting like argentines or filipinos, in our desperation to preserve bloated companies and industries. shame on the US of A

chesty love said...

Regarding the coming economic depression. Look at the bright side. At least feminism and girl's shopping addictions will be destroyed! LOL

VectorzSigma said...

Wait, where do you get off saying the "NGUYENS" are part of the illegal demographic whom are defrauding our country? I seldom ever hear about illegal Vietnamese in this country. Please set me straight if I'm wrong but you come off racist and ignorant for that statement.

another bush regime credit said...

National Debt Counter Clock Runs Out Of Digits:

NEWS:

The US debt clock near Times Square was set up in 1989, when the US National debt was $2.7 trillion and had only enough digits to show $9,999,999,999,999.

With the republicans in charge over the last 8-years, it has blown way past that figure.

Way to go Bushy-boy! (as*wipe)

Full Story:

http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/7198

Tyrone said...

Credit not available in Europe?

Although the reporter says 'unverified'. Will this become normal?????

Anonymous said...

There should be blood, there should be heads rolling (literally), and the end of not capitalism but parasitical FINANCE CAPITALISM.

Anonymous said...

I remember at the bottom of the .com bust people were going into real estate and out of the stock market.

Problem is, Wall Street followed them and securitized real estate.

They will follow your money again like raiders.

new cars from china said...

Michigan's economic problems due to cheap non-American (imports) cars and trucks flooding the US Market - including a new wave of CHINA MADE cars coming here soon because Bush regime members will own these new China dealerships.

RE: NANCY

***************

Dear Nancy: Sure moving out of Michigan to another state might help me find a good job, but for one thing, I dont "cut and run" from economic challanges like McCain did in Michigan. I'm not a pussy. I try to find solutions.

Anonymous said...

There are plenty of failures in life - true genius is shown in how you recover from it.

Actually, I think true genius is learning from other people's mistakes and trying to avoid making them.

Overcoming failure is fundamental to ALL forms of life - including single celled organisms. Intelligence lies in seeing potential failures before they happen in order to prevent them.

How else would we have gotten to the moon otherwise.

Finance is no different - the problem is that people stopped being intelligent and became greedy and stupid.

As they used to say... if an engineer makes a mistake in his calculations, the plane will correct that mistake by crashing to the ground. This is why we expect more intelligence from our engineers, doctors, lawyers, CEO banksers, etc.

Can you imagine if an engineer designed a bridge to make the construction costs more important than safety? Or a doctor using a cheaper pace maker in you to save some cash?

And yet our presidents and bankers are utter morons.

And yet - the fault lies with us for electing them and trusting them with our money. Instead of using our brains to see where they might fail and do something to prevent it.

Nature is never kind... and as for the stupid - it is prefered that they go first so the smarter ones have a better chance of survival.

Lost Cause said...

I am not too worried. I have already been suffering through economic pain for the past five years, and now that the fat cats are soon to be going broke, I look forward to being rewarded for hard work and talents. I work hard, I work cheap, and my business will be growing by leaps and bounds without them around.

Look Out Car Hobby speculators said...

"Stuck in So Pa said...
I just got back from the gigantic antique auto show and flea market up in Hershey, PA yesterday."

Wow. Same story from me! Last (cycle) time I didn't have cash and was not prepared so missed some great bargains (well, relative bargains, even though I love the hobby, some of the stuff {West Coast prices} is just still priced ridiculous IMHO).

This time it will be different...

Thanks for your great informative post.

Ross said...

This thread is absolutely brilliant and I'm glued. Unfortunately I need to get back to work explaining to client after client where all their money has disappeared to.

I truly feel for everyone who has beared their problems and a part of their soul here. I thank the man upstairs every day that I'm young and only have a "little bit" of "bad debt." And I don't "own" a mortgage, which gives me comfort in these trying times.

Watching my friends and family spend money on silly material things while the economy is crashing down around us makes me sick.

I really want them to read this blog and see the light. It's time for humility and to stop being so flashy, trashy and shallow. Some are getting the message, but I fear many never will.

More power to everyone who spreads the message and takes flack, loses friendships and damages relationships. It's hard to get the blind to see.

Anonymous said...

"Dear Nancy: Sure moving out of Michigan to another state might help me find a good job, but for one thing, I dont "cut and run" from economic challanges like McCain did in Michigan. I'm not a pussy. I try to find solutions."

OK, so sit and go broke. Your choice. There's cutting and running and then there's being self-sufficient. The UAW will not tell you which is which, you have to figure that out for yourself.

Ross said...

" chesty love said...
Regarding the coming economic depression. Look at the bright side. At least feminism and girl's shopping addictions will be destroyed! LOL"

Please tell me it's true. That would make this all worth it..ha!

I'm kidding folks.

Anonymous said...

Doing fantastic!!! No money in the market. Sitting on the sidlines with $ at the ready. Gov't job. Another city wants to contract my services. Currently too busy but may do it after we look at the FY 2010 budget. Life is fantastic!! I am loving all those 401K losses. Told people long ago that they would never retire with a 401K. I chug along with my pension. Also, before anyone blabbers about the security of it, let me remind you that if it is lost, you are all in even deeper shit.

Lady Di said...

I learned my lesson from the Dot Com bust after relying on a dumbass stockbroker that made his money on the way up and on the way down while I lost big. 7 years later, and I am still writing the losses off.

I got informed and got out of the market on January 2nd. This year will be a break even year for me, but in this environment I am not complaining.

Oh, and I no longer involve stockbrokers or financial advisors with my finances - just make my own decisions and trades. Best decision I ever made.

Thanks HP! You helped me see the light (along with Ron Paul, Roubini, Rogers, Mish, Schiff and Jim Sinclair).

Anonymous said...

Blogger VectorzSigma said...

Wait, where do you get off saying the "NGUYENS" are part of the illegal demographic whom are defrauding our country? I seldom ever hear about illegal Vietnamese in this country. Please set me straight if I'm wrong but you come off racist and ignorant for that statement.

October 09, 2008 5:43 PM

There are a lot of white trash who hate Asians for their success and thus stereotype them; they are illegals, they are not real Americans because they are not white, they look funny, they worship a God different than Jesus, etc....

Anonymous said...

I'm never going to forget those congress people high fiving each other after that crony bailout bill. What a loot job. They just better hope I can eat.

VectorzSigma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I renegotiated my contract last week. Got a 7% increase in my bill rate. I wasn't stupid enough to buy a house and love the housing crash. I was also smart enough to get out of stocks last year and so I'm sitting in cash and enjoying this crash.

Tomorrow I am going on a boat cruise for my friend's birthday party. He rented out the whole thing for about 75 people.

Some depression!

Anonymous said...

I work for a well known .com company. While no layoffs have been announced we've had a hiring freeze since July.

Last quarter's revenue was down about 15% overall,as much as 50% in some markets. Layoffs should be coming any day now.

I'm prepared though. I have $175K in the bank and if need be could last 4 to 5 years on that. In a way I hope I do get laid off, I hear they've extended unemployment benefits for 52 weeks and I sure could use a 52 week paid for holiday.

Bush is an idiot said...

"Hanky Panic you can't denial it now.

It all out panic.

Let's NATIONALIZE THE BANKS

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/
081008/meltdown_paulson.html


The Bush administration is considering taking ownership stakes in a number of U.S. banks as one option it might use to deal with a serious credit crisis, an administration official said Wednesday."

This above is the reason the market keeps falling. Every time the morons in this administration talk, or do something, the market crashes. Pretty simple.

Anonymous said...

they raised my utilities for the eleventh time in six years.....got to find something to turn a little wheels and harness it to a larger wheel as generator.............

Anonymous said...

The goverment has lied and padded the wall street types for so long ...from the immigration bill to this bailout..buisness and the very wealthy just kept hitting us...faith in gov and buisness is gone kaput DEAD.

Anonymous said...

new cars from china:

If wagon wheel makers had that attitude when the Model T Ford went into production, they'd probably have starved to death.

Anonymous said...

Stuck in So Pa:

I am looking to get some great deals myself on antique Porsches. I see it already. Cars that were in the $20 to $25K range are in the $17-20K range now. By this time next year $10K should do it.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Look Out Car Hobby speculators said...

"Stuck in So Pa said...
I just got back from the gigantic antique auto show and flea market up in Hershey, PA yesterday."

Wow. Same story from me! Last (cycle) time I didn't have cash and was not prepared so missed some great bargains (well, relative bargains, even though I love the hobby, some of the stuff {West Coast prices} is just still priced ridiculous IMHO)
----------------------------------
Got to agree, those "west coaster's" and their prices just prove that they truly live in their own little world out there, just about as far from the real world as you can get. Some things will never change.
=================================

Anonymous said...

Stuck in So Pa:

I am looking to get some great deals myself on antique Porsches. I see it already. Cars that were in the $20 to $25K range are in the $17-20K range now. By this time next year $10K should do it.
----------------------------------
Good for you, best of luck! Unfortunately for me, that cars in my interest area are still cost skyrocketing to the point of ridiculousness, beyond insane. I'll have to wait longer, but come down in price they will.
History will repeat itself (assuming that there will be a history left to repeat!)

sophie said...

www.zeitgeistmovie.com

Anonymous said...

"Stuck in So Pa said...
Look Out Car Hobby speculators said... Good for you, best of luck! Unfortunately for me, that cars in my interest area are still cost skyrocketing to the point of ridiculousness, beyond insane. I'll have to wait longer, but come down in price they will."

Well, frankly, me too somewhat. But: example '57 Chev post coupe (I always wanted a '57) rotisserie restoration to a high but very drivable standard, LS-1 with all electronic control, 6 speed nash/hurst PS (quick ratio GM box with Ididit tilt column with turn signals) ,PDB (4wheel) Ford 9' rear, new everything, incl mild tint new glass, hand bent stainless exhaust built by a perfectionist all 1st class 60's style original interior, stock apearance -oh yes, vintage air and built into stock panels multiple speaker sound syst with stock appearing radio, etc etc. By my estimate at least $60K to build, was on sale for 42K, then 39K now 34.5K. 30K is half of build cost. Will go lower and let you know if I pull trigger. They are out there... BTW, this is in Nor. Cal/Bay Area home of draconian smog laws thanks to the liberal retards in office. Good Luck with your search.