September 22, 2008

Ho hum, another day, another stock market and dollar meltdown. When does American Idol start up again?

Get out your crystal balls HP'ers, and be realistic:

1) Are you buying, selling or holding

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

3) What stocks do you like?

4) What stocks do you hate?

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?




73 comments:

keith said...

Interesting that oil (priced in dollars) was up $25 at one point today. The previous one day record gain was $10

May you live in interesting times.

Holy crap this is wild.

Anonymous said...

Since I don't socialize with this crowd, I have to ask here: does anyone know what the McMansionites are thinking about what is happening? Do they think that just maybe they might be even a tiny bit at fault for buying a house beyond their means?

HAH! Just a trick question. McMansionites don't think. Never have, never will. After all, their mommies and daddies told them they COULD have it all...

Turning to my real question, does anyone know what it will be like to work for our Chinese and Middle Eastern overlords? How are their 401 K plans? Do they recognize Columbus Day?

Mark in San Diego said...

HEY - the frickin Swiss Franc went up .04 cents against the dollar while I was having a pizza here in Zurich!! WTF!!. . .Bernie and Hanks Inkjet has been discovered by the world. . .here comes MASSIVE inflation!!!. . .The American public will not know what hit them, since public schools are a disgrace, and only teach "self esteem". . .when gas is $10 a gallon, and even ChinaJunk (tm) cost double, maybe they will finaly catch on.

keith said...

They banned short selling

They threw a trillion dollars at the problem

They bailed out AIG

They backed up money markets

They put out happy talk

And none of it worked

Getting spooked?

ANON? said...

Keith,


I propose we start a new round of predictions. Predictions based on past history and current events. Nothing in the tin foil relm, but realistic predictions. Topics:

The future of the Dollar, Housing, banks, stocks etc....

Anonymous said...

i tried to short AMR today and i couldn't. permission denied.

haha, america, what a joke.

what was that? we're in iraq to protect our freedoms? what freedoms?

dAVID IN sOcAL said...

I AM PISSED and GETTING MORE PISSED BY THE DAY!!!!!!!

IT IS TIME FOR A REVOLUTION AND I AM NOT JOKING!!!

IT IS TIME TO MARCH ON WASHINGTON AND DO IT NOW!!!!!

HOW ABOUT 2 MILLION PISSED OFF PEOPLE STORMING DC???

I AM SERIOUS!!!!

Anonymous said...

Here is my position. I am staying in all U.S. Dollare (in WFB for now), even though the dollar is currently tanking.

After the elections and in the first quarter of 2009 interest rates will go up. Period! Banks will have to raise cash by offering higher C.D. rates and thus borrowing costs will soar!

The U.S. Government is in survival mode and in addition to buying all the gold they can muster they will close gold and silver exchanges and confiscate all the bullion they can. Not to mention manipulate the prices.

Cash will be king as evident by the flight to U.S. Treasuries because the U.S. will continue to issue U.S. Treasuries at higher rates to cover our nations needs.

This all points to higher inerest rates coming very soon so savers will be rewarded!

Anonymous said...

I'll bite and make a few predictions. I predict the stock market will drop so drastically one day this week that trading will be halted. Next week, there will be two days where trading is halted. In ten to fourteen days the stock market will be at 8,200 to 8,500. Within 30 days, the market will crawl its way back up to 9000 to 9100. It will remain there with a few hiccups here or there until late 2011 or early 2012. From 2012 to 2015 the stocket market will reach 11,500. Once the stock market breaks thru the 11,500 mark, cable channels will be flooded with infomericals on How to Get Rich in Real Estate. Many viewers will be intrigued by this almost risk free way of making money...

gutless and lazy said...

Get out your crystal balls HP'ers, and be realistic:

1) Are you buying, selling or holding

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

3) What stocks do you like?

4) What stocks do you hate?

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?



1) Are you buying, selling or holding.
SOLD all long positions ... stocks, bonds, mutual funds last summer.
BOUGHT MM funds last summer.
HOLDING MM still, probably for 2 more quarters. 100% MM 'cash' now.

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?
This year is down for equities, bonds, real estate, cash (inflation).

Hedging inflation in currencies or commodites a very dangerous game. EXTREME volatility.

I will set aside 10% for speculation in commodities. But that's it.

2009 is DOWN for equities, real estate, cash as recession hits.

3) What stocks do you like?
Capital preservation is the game. TIPS? For appreciation ... a very few select Asian stocks is it. Avoiding the Eurozone completely as well.

4) What stocks do you hate?
U.S. growth. Index funds. Except for maybe the dogs of DOW. ;-)

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

Maybe a few select recession stocks. Booze. Cigs. McDonalds. But mostly Cash. TIPS... Least amount of lost capitial.

Researching REAL ESTATE now. Just doing the ground work for a purchase MAYBE in 2010.

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?
Short term, Bunker for me. Overseas for the kids. I'm suggesting kids move to Ozz or New Zealand. Getting out of USD based assets. Looking to leave MER as Private Client. Maybe go to Schiff's firm.

vanilla ice said...

When is our Black Tuesday? A 5% decline in one day is the biggest we've had recently. Big deal.

And watch, the stock market will look like it's getting ready to fail again this week. Then towards the end of the week, hallelujah, someone or something swoops in to save the day.

That thing will be the something like the quick passing of the new Treasury bill, or Comrade Bernanke comes to the conclusion that the markets are so down they have to go up, or some analyst discovers good is bad and sideways is up and down.

time to slaughter the hogs.. said...

I agree that we need to march on DC and throw out the corrupt pigs!!!!!

How do we organize??? I am in and I would go.

Anonymous said...

Cover of TIME: "How Wall Street Sold Out America" - oh, so close! Keith's final prediction before the blog shuts down.

Ibod said...

About four years ago, based on then current US conditions and future prospects, (had a hunch of this unwinding, price inflation, wage depression, etc.), formulated a plan and took steps to secure citizenship overseas. Due to my European ethnic heritage, my particular country, allowed me and my only child to secure citizenship, (not my spouse, as she's an American mongrel, but allowed to tag along, due to marriage relationship).
The effort was worth it as we now hold dual citizenship, (permitted by USA law), and have passports which provide the extra benefit of allowing residence and work, in any country of the European Union. Also have slowly transferred bulk of assets overseas and when full retirement in effect, its HASTA LA VISTA, Amerika.(Munich is appealing).
If I'm going to live in a socialist type system, it might as well be a place without the outrageous hypocrisy and pseudo-conservative phonies.

Honica Jewinski said...

Mark in San Diego said...
HEY - the frickin Swiss Franc went up .04 cents against the dollar while I was having a pizza here in Zurich!! WTF!!. . .Bennie and Hanks Inkjet has been discovered by the world. . .here comes MASSIVE inflation!!!. .
-------------------------------

The same thing happened in Weimar era Germany. The people that perpetrated that crime, are the ancesters of the people now stealing from the American people through inflation. The Germans had the sack to hold the guilty accountable, will we????????

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2003/germany.html

"The New York Times ran a story on October 30, 1923, datelined Berlin, which told the tale of an American who went into a restaurant and handed the waiter a dollar, asking for "all the food an American dollar will buy." The waiter recovered from his astonishment and began to serve the guest.

"Soup, several meat dishes, fruit and coffee were served. While the guest was smoking his cigar the waiter brought another plate of soup, and later another meat dish.

" 'What does this mean?'" the astonished and satisfied guest asked.

"The waiter bowed politely and replied: 'The dollar has gone up again.'"

Anonymous said...

I also agree - lets march on DC. Either that or a tax revolt, but that would probably hurt all the little people and most people would be too afraid to do it. There are people involved in this that are guilty. Both Democrats and Republicans. They can be identified. Over the years various real people gutted banking regulations, took payoffs from lobbyists and committed fraud in their peddling of worthless paper. Not to mention brokers, appraisers, real estate agents. But mainly, it was Presidents, some big money players and Congress that made it possible.It wasn't the average working guy who created this problem. I am all for the March. When? (I wonder if they will invoke the Patriot act!)

Anonymous said...

1) Are you buying, selling or holding

I sold out early this year, closing down my 401K. I took the money and paid off my home and rental house, and put the rest in money market. I'm waiting for the prices to come down some more before I buy a farm, and maybe another rental property.

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

It looks like crap with high inflation (but not hyperinflation)and declining production (which the gov. will claim is not yet a recession)

3) What stocks do you like?

None, yet. I will be looking at energy stocks once the dust settles, but I expect the stockmarket to go nowhere for a decade.

4) What stocks do you hate?

See above.

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

Money market now, then housing, if all goes well, towards the end of 2009

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?

I am planning to buy a farm. I'm not going overseas, though. This will be a global problem.

Anonymous said...

Hey HPers... You all still negative on Gold? Keith??? Naivete.

Anonymous said...

I am ready to march and have been.. Too many sheep around here not willing to stand up a fight for what is right!! Stop the bailouts before our kids kids kids are left holding the bag!

Anonymous said...

6) I've gotten my Bug-Out Bag (BOB) ready to go. Zombie Squad, unite!

Anonymous said...

It's really simple folks. Do what I've been saying for nearly a year. Buy long-dated puts on every rally, say every +500 DJIA. Sell some on each -500 DJIA. Try to keep some for each next leg down.

Another tip: they nearly always bail out put *writers* during expiration week (last week was a brilliant example). So buy calls (or go long stocks) on the dips on option exp week. I made an insane killing last week buying calls at the Wed lows.

The market should have a nice multi-week rally now. Oil should stay suppressed (excluding the expiration today). The short-term play is buy (front-month calls) on dips. While doing so, load up with long-term index puts (LEAPS) along the way. Don't spend more than 1/10 your wad in each put buy.

The FNM bailout didn't get the March BSC rally effect they wanted. They will NOT fail on this rally attempt. This one will be a Mar-May type rally. However, it can be derailed at any moment. If they contain the financial mess, perhaps it'll be the horrible Xmas numbers that will kill it.

I'm not talking up my book here as I don't hold much of anything right now. I don't care which way the market goes, I'm going to make money on each side.

The only other alternative is the market goes and tanks again right away, in which case it's 1929/1987 crash time and all bets are off.

No matter how good a rally we get in the next few weeks, it will NOT exceed the 14k highs, and we WILL go lower. You can't magically forget about trillions in losses. Someone has to pay the piper.

Also: gold higher, dollar weaker, oil higher (after election), interest rates higher.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

My basic breakdown:

25% gold, silver, miners
10% Money Market/Checking account
15% Foreign Currencies (via MERKX, MEAFX)
15% Oil ETF/Resource Stocks
35% Equities, mostly foreign, nothing strongly tied to American consumers, long term holds.

Anonymous said...

After the elections and in the first quarter of 2009 interest rates will go up. Period! Banks will have to raise cash by offering higher C.D. rates and thus borrowing costs will soar!

Negative. The US economy's heading to a Japaniesque deflationary period. The flood of printed money by the FED will be invested back into Treasuries by financials. Financials won't be lending any money, but opting to hold the money in a safe place (i.e., treasuries). Everyone should be buying treasuries right now.

Anonymous said...

1) Are you buying, selling or holding
BUY BUY BUY

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

Don't really care, I'm looking 20 years down the road.

3) What stocks do you like?
Financials and homebuilders.

4) What stocks do you hate?
Commodity related.

5) Where's the safest place for your money?
Stocks long term. No clue short term.

DJW said...

I agree, lets march on DC and make our voices heard!!!!
I am happy to do anything to help organize.

email me: bailoutbs@gmail.com

lets make history and rock DC!!!

Its time to mount up!!!

Anonymous said...

Dancing with the Stars starts tonight!

Woo-Hoo!

Anonymous said...

Three suggestions - write your congressmen:
1) Bring back the uptick rule.
2) Bring back Glass Steigel.
3) Do not allow a name change to change all the rules. WOW - in the real estate runup it was oh it's an old apartment, oh wait it's a Townhouse, oh wait it's a CONDO - WHAT a GONGA. And now it's an investment bank... oh wait, it's a holding company - WHAT a GONGA! Hey, I don't wan't to be called a taxpayer any more - what's MY new name and GONGA?

YoungExec2B said...

1) Are you buying, selling or holding?

Had to sell my stocks outside of my retirement plan. As it happens, I sold at the peak or near it, so no regrets. Holding the stocks in my retirement plan, as I'm heavily invested in relatively safe (Canadian) financials and high-dividend paying blue chips. Amazingly enough, my funds are still up about 0.5% on the year. I'll likely take a beating, but I won't need that money for another 25 years, so I'm not all that concerned.

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

Saving up money to invest in Canada's new tax-free savings account. Looking to buy stuff on the cheap in 2009.

3) What stocks do you like?

Blue chips with a solid history in any sector. Everything's going to get beaten down, so people will flock to traditionally "safe" investments and well-run companies.

I'd be interested in seeing at what GM and Ford look like after restructuring. Not anytime soon, but kick the tires in a year or so. They might be undervalued by then.

4) What stocks do you hate?

Everything. Any buyout plans don't matter. The American public is still tapped out, and will be for quite some time. Consumer spending will be just a faint pulse until 2010.

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

Ummm...under my mattress?

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?

Nope, already taken measures to keep my head above water. I've been averaging 10% a year wage increases at my job, so I'm keeping up with inflation, though barely. Besides, where exactly would we move? Europe is going down the crapper too...?

yoski said...

A deep look into a rather murky crystal ball.
1) Are you buying, selling or holding
Holding right now. 60% cash, 20% bullion PM and 20% stocks (medical, consumer staples, energy)

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?
Very volatile. Like gambling in a casino.
3) What stocks do you like?
medical (aging boomers), energy (got to gas up that SUV and keep the light on), consumer staples (everybody got to have toilet paper and cheesy puffs), foreign markets like Canada or Brazil (resource rich countries will be OK), industrial (will make a comeback once it gets too expensive to ship crap all over the world), technology (once people have to work from home)
4) What stocks do you hate?
consumer discretionary (No BMWs, Whole Foods and I-pods when people are broke), financials (a good part of their business model is gone for good and it ain't coming back), builders (especially those catering to the upper crust), retail
5) Where's the safest place for your money?
Out of reach of Wall Street and the IRS. I have a big gun safe at home that's bolted to the floor.
6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?
As long as I have a job I stay put.

I think this whole deal will play out similarly to Japan. I am still not sure about the inflation/deflation thing. While inflation makes more sense given the lack of revenue and the amount of the bailouts, that's not how it played out in Japan. They tried like hell to debase their currency but got deflation instead. It's also likely that the rest of the world will be less enthusiastic about the latest American financial innovations, dollars and T-bills. That would imply a lower trade imbalance and less crap from China and... you guessed it, less oil.
Personally I tried to stay employed and hold onto cash for now.

Anonymous said...

Keith:

Here is my prediction:

MARTIAL LAW by March 30, 2009.

That's no joke. I have friends in the military who are warning about it.

Lady Di said...

1.) Mostly out of the market and holding in cash.
2.) 2009 will be a tough year as the market continues to punish us
for years of excess and greed.
3.) Not in the market - don't know
4.) "" ""
5.) gold and surprisingly real estate (selectively).
6.) To Greece where we have a home, family business, and lots of family (on my husband's side) - yeah, it's pretty screwed up from an economic standpoint, but you can't beat the beaches, food and great people.

Life could be a lot worse and for that I am grateful.

patrat said...

Thank you Keith for the great comments and videos. I am not much of a trader. I have kept my asset allocation about the same but must admit I am getting really nervous.

Paul E. Math said...

Yes, asset price deflation. But otherwise the devaluation of the USD will result in higher commodity prices when denominated in USD. In particular, the overall trend for oil will be price increases.

Honestly though, this is very wild and unpredictable and I could be very wrong.

There has been such a strong negative reaction to this last bailout that it's making me wonder if it's even going to go through. If this bailout doesn't go through then maybe you really get your full-on deflation.

But I think it's more likely that congress will demand some stupid giveaways to homeowners in the bailout, making it even bigger, and then it will be pass. Then the dollar is gone forever, runaway inflation ensues.

vanilla ice said...

I was ready to march on Washington or downtown NYC a long time ago but I never have. The least I could do is picket in front of NY's Fed building, but I would look like an idiot doing that alone. If I ever see Bernanke I'm going to yell at him.

Anonymous said...

I seen this sucker coming, I sold and bought a ranch in Colombia. Will be heading out by the end if year!!!

Anonymous said...

david in socal said...
I AM PISSED and GETTING MORE PISSED BY THE DAY!!!!!!!

IT IS TIME FOR A REVOLUTION AND I AM NOT JOKING!!!

IT IS TIME TO MARCH ON WASHINGTON AND DO IT NOW!!!!!

HOW ABOUT 2 MILLION PISSED OFF PEOPLE STORMING DC???

I AM SERIOUS!!!

----------
TO LATE!!!

consultant said...

Out of the country. And I can't get there too fast.

Anonymous said...

I would also pony up the cash for a bus/plane/train ticket to DC. Have never done it before, but this is worth it.

Is there ANYONE who knows how to organize this stuff?

Sincerely,

Angry White Middle Class Mom

Anonymous said...

I avoided the rush and applied for New Zealand residency in 2006 -- made the move in Jan 2008, along with my wife and children.

What a beautiful and productive country NZ is!! At any rate, having lived a financially moral life, never going into debt, never debt leveraging into particle-board condos, $1B Goldman Sachs X-mas bonuses, etc etc, I didn't feel any moral obligation to stick around for the financial ass- fucking that Wall St/White House are putting on everybody now.

Here are my predictions:

US Government collapses in 2009; martial law instituted. Civil war unfolds

Secession movements already in place take hold; watch for the Republics of Texas, Vermont and Idaho to lead the way.

In 2009, Gold at $10,000/oz. as US Dollar collapses completely; when the public finds out that there is no gold in Fort Knox, gold will skyrocket to $200,000/oz or higher -- or no longer priced at all in US Dollars.

When the enforcement mechanism (police, FBI, Secret Service, Military, Homeland Security, etc) become destitute themeselves and their own families start suffering/ starving, watch the Illuminati crowd (Bush and Clinton crime syndicates, British Monarchy, Rothschilds, Rockefellers, etc. etc) hunted down worldwide like wild pigs. Just like the Nazis after WWII, look for most them to flee to places like Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina.

Anonymous said...

Can you believe Paulson has the nerve to fight the Democrats over CEO pay in this bail out plan?

Democrats want a provision in the bill that will limit CEO pay of companies that participate in the bail out. Paulson stated that he does not want to discourage companies from using the program. That guy could not be anymore corrupt. Obviously he is watching out for his pals at Goldman. If a company made bad decisions and took on excessive risk to make quick profits, then they should be damn glad that the lender of last resort (U.S.) is there for them. CEO's are supposed to act in the interest of the shareholder, so if their company needs U.S. funds or they face insolvency then they cannot be discouraged from using it because they want to preserve their obscene pay.

Paulson did not leave a high paying CEO position at Goldman to become Treasury for nothing. He is going to take care of his roots, his interests, and his people; not the American people.

Anonymous said...

1) selling
2) ugly
3) miners
4) fin

5) swiss alps

6) moving overseas

sandman said...

Keith and my fellow HPers,

We can make a difference!!!

I've been e-mailng others tonight.

We can help.

YOU/WE are all very bright. You knew it. No one else did. We're getting stuck with the bill.

Just review the suggestion below and take action.

We need a count of who is voting - opposed and for? We need at least 50.

Pick the people "For". Look at who their non-incumbent opponent is. We need to contact their campaign team directly for an assault. They can put out the word - xxx has been in the Senate for y years - we are now in a crisis and they want to "ream the taxpayer". These folks have $millions to fight. They are risk takers - as they are non-incumbents. They can help us.

Just write them and the local news. They WILL respond. Send the message that Americans will be damned if we're paying for some flunky's bad CC debt - which is what Dodd wants.

Keith - you wanna do something spectacular (you did with your blog). Help us finish it. Please.

Anonymous said...

So which is it DEPRESSION or HYPER-INFLATION

http://www.usatoday.com/money/
industries/energy/2008-09-22-
oil-prices-monday_N.htm?csp=34

The price of oil, below $100 for much of last week, rocketed to its biggest one-day dollar gain in history on Monday as speculators had to buy at any price to deliver on contracts expiring that day.

"A short-term panic," says Joe Marshall, energy trader at McNamara Options. "I've never seen a move like this in one day."

Light, sweet crude oil for October delivery closed the Nymex trading day Monday at $120.92 per barrel, a leap of $16.37 a barrel from Friday's close.

Anonymous said...

btw, you can't wait it over, this is the end. american way of life never coming back

Anonymous said...

I'm a "liberal Democrat" but I'm pissed at some of the proposals I've seen that want the bailout plan to include provisions for keeping people from being foreclosed on.

I admit, I'm a little bit of a bitter renter, here! I rent while saving for a down payment so that I can buy a house I can afford. Half the country barged willy-nilly into loans they had no ability to pay back, and although I feel for people who were misled and didn't understand what they were getting into, I still don't want to pay taxes so that they can stay in their house...while responsible people like me continue to rent!!

However, that is a very minor thing compared to the truly frightening parts of the bailout plan as Paulson has presented it. I'm really pissed that the taxpayers are going to be giving truckloads of free money to Wall St. when Wall St. has been reckless, stupid, and GETTING FILTHY FREAKING RICH off of these ridiculous CDS's and other kre8iv financial instruments. They created this doomsday scenario...and they are going to benefit from it!! It's insane!! It's perverse.

I really think Dems and Repubs alike...anyone with a brain left in this country...should be marching on Washington. I'm planning to call my representatives tomorrow and let them know my thoughts. Everyone else should too.

Sorry to rant. This bailout thing makes me so damn mad.

Mitesh Damania said...

Sign up to say NO TO THE WALL ST BAILOUT!
http://www.votenobailout.org/

Anonymous said...

Think of the things we could do in this country with 700 BILLION dollars. (Which will be far more after all is said and done.)

Instead we are giving it to Wall St.

I really can hardly believe it.

Predictions? I have none. I am shocked more every day. Not sure what I, personally, should be doing. I'm like a deer caught in headlights.

I do wonder if everyone feels this way? Or is it possible this has escaped people's notice? if so, what a sad sad commentary on America in 2008. Our country is being plundered and we don't care.

tater said...

These are definitely interesting times. And, I feel that we're definitely foreign-owned, too. Maybe, we should ask our Chinese and Middle East overlords to bail us out just one more time. That way, we can do a bait and switch, and take their money, and then crash to the final bottom. We'll have one big blast before we flame out for real!!
SUUUUWEEEETTTTT

Of course, if our overlords are smarter than the average possum, then they'll leave us to flame out, with nary another penny! If this scenario happens, then watch out, because - 我們被強暴! Translated to English this means that "We're screwed"!!

I'll have to find a translation for Arabic. Maybe, I can impress our new overlords, and get a nice cushy job like cleaning out portable toilets. Hey, it's every man for himself!!

goldismoney said...

Keith,

We MUST march on Washington to oppose this bill. If word gets out there will be a march I'm sure a million people would show up. Have you heard of a group organizing such a march or of a group whom would organize a march?

djw said...

LETS ORGANIZE!!

IF INTERESTED, EMAIL ME:

BAILOUTBS@GMAIL.COM


NOW IS PAST THE TIME TO ACT!!

IF WE DONT FIGHT, WE WILL GET WHAT WE DESERVE....I AM PISSED AS WELL.

LETS GO FOR 2 MILLION PISSED OFF AMERICANS IN DC!!!!

WHITE, BLACK, BROWN, ASIAN....LETS UNITE AND MAKE A STAND!!! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!

Sir Harold said...

There is always that possibility that if you are stupid enough to show up at the white house in huge numbers to protest all of you will most likely get wiped off the face of the earth from those weapons in space, remember the star wars program ?

what you think they do not exist ?

get a clue

we have no rights, massive wealth is an illusion end of story

Anonymous said...

It is highly likely [or a certainty on my planet] that J.P. Morgan was INSOLVENT and was “BAILED OUT” last Monday, September 15, to the tune of 138 billion dollars. This would explain why the Fed and Treasury dictated that Lehman fail – to disguise or otherwise obfuscate the recapitali​zation of or illicit transfer of 138 billion to A MUCH SICKER, TEETERING ENTITY, J.P. Morgan Chase.

Th​is makes sense. Investment banks are dropping like flies, owing to their involvemen​t in credit derivative​s – this is a fact.

J. P. Morgan is – HANDS DOWN – the largest derivative​s player in the world with a book of 90 Trillion in notional value on March 31, 2008 – with 9% of the book composed of Credit Derivative​s. That amounts to a cool 8.1 Trillion worth of Credit Derivative​s. We know this from the Office of the Comptrolle​r of the Currency’s Quarterly Derivative​s Report – pg. 24.

As to “how” J.P. Morgan could be insolvent without a public declaratio​n, I remind you of something mentioned in this space on several occasions; it was Dawn Kopecki that reported in BusinessWe​ek Online, back in 2006, in a piece titled, Intelligen​ce Czar Can Waive SEC Rules,

“P​resident George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligen​ce czar, John Negroponte​, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities​-disclosure obligation​s. Notice of the developmen​t came in a brief entry in the Federal Register, dated May 5, 2006, that was opaque to the untrained eye.”

htt​p://financi​alsense.com​/Market/wra​pup.htm

satan said...

You know there is something wrong in the world when the "villian" in a 80s movie about wall street seems to a more decent human being than a CEO of an investment bank.

http://tinyurl.com/3wfqdg

Nick said...

As I predicted HP'ers, the government will soon rewrite people's mortgages down to "affordable levels" and they will do the same with credit card debt. HP'ers, how does it feel to finance other people's bad behavior? To me it is awesome since I am in that category. HP'ers, thanks for being honest and hard working! Someone has to be the sucker and I am glad it was you!

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

"A safe place for your money" - what a sad,sick joke.

Squirrels busy hiding their nuts - there is no safe place. Anyone telling you "your money is safe with me" is just another opportunist, and there will be many more opportunists as times get tougher.

In the mean time, I've ordered plenty of hot buttered popcorn in advance - the real show is just about to start.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

This is a global systemic collapse - which makes the "Great Depression" look like DisneyLand.

All the squirrels will try and hide their nuts - but it won't keep them safe from the eventual collapse.

Good luck to all of you attempting to hoard your money in gold, silver, oil etc...

Anonymous said...

nick is my new favorite HPer

keyser soze said...

Buying commercial banks that I think will survive and thrive. It's a bloody mess. I am also buying C preferreds.
Send in the clowns...better yet, the guys in white suits! lol

Keith, the loan to AIG will actually make a profit for the US.....unlike the Iraq fiasco, and other wasteful government programs. I thought it was genius for Paulson to trash the AIG stockholders. I think the US will lose ~ $200b on the GSE & current proposed toxic purchase. IMHO

keyser soze said...

Man, you guys are doped up!
Paulson is planning on buying frozen RE assets for pennies on the dollar w/ the $700b. They could possibly turn a profit in 3 years, but don't hold your breath.
You should be spending your 'angst' on the Iraq debacle, deficit spending, national debt, oil dependence, loss of manufacturing base...not this silly loan purchase.
That is all.

Nick said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

nick is my new favorite HPer

September 23, 2008 11:39 AM

Thanks, it means a lot to me. I am the anti-thesis of Andrew Hac and other HP'ers who were constantly mocking us, making fun of us, disrespecting us, demeaning us, etc... By us, I mean people who bought a house and lived a life of palatial luxury based on credit. They all wished and hoped that all of us would suffer. Boy are they DOPES or what? The government will sooner or later help out "struggling homeowners who are saddled with a tremendous amount of debt".

Sorry HP'ers, you LOST and we WON!

Nick said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a "liberal Democrat" but I'm pissed at some of the proposals I've seen that want the bailout plan to include provisions for keeping people from being foreclosed on.

I admit, I'm a little bit of a bitter renter, here! I rent while saving for a down payment so that I can buy a house I can afford. Half the country barged willy-nilly into loans they had no ability to pay back, and although I feel for people who were misled and didn't understand what they were getting into, I still don't want to pay taxes so that they can stay in their house...while responsible people like me continue to rent!!

However, that is a very minor thing compared to the truly frightening parts of the bailout plan as Paulson has presented it. I'm really pissed that the taxpayers are going to be giving truckloads of free money to Wall St. when Wall St. has been reckless, stupid, and GETTING FILTHY FREAKING RICH off of these ridiculous CDS's and other kre8iv financial instruments. They created this doomsday scenario...and they are going to benefit from it!! It's insane!! It's perverse.

I really think Dems and Repubs alike...anyone with a brain left in this country...should be marching on Washington. I'm planning to call my representatives tomorrow and let them know my thoughts. Everyone else should too.

Sorry to rant. This bailout thing makes me so damn mad.

September 23, 2008 3:48 AM

I am sorry that you worked hard and now will see the fruits of your hard work given off to the likes of people like me. But when the party was going on, you had a choice, either to join the party and live it up or sit on the sidelines. You sat on the sidelines .Thus you will pay.

The federal government won't let home prices deflate like you DOPES want and current homeowners will be helped out. Count on it. NEVER FIGHT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.

Anonymous said...

Two months ago, sold all equity positions and put that money into Tbills. Yeah, I know that Ts will crash too, but what the hell. My current allocation is still going entirely in stocks, because that leaves me a lot less exposure (since my existing positions were liquidated, and I expect the market to drop further).

So I still have equity exposure, I just dropped the amount. NO debt, unless you count the Tbills, which are now essentially Fannie and Freddie crap.

I have a cash position, parcelled between banks, and I have a little gold I bought when it dropped substantially. My only other investment is a bunch of dry goods down in the basement. I wish that I were kidding.

I, too, expect a huge inflation. I just want to make sure I can feed my family, so I have a lot of rice, dry beans, cooking oil, vinegar and salt for pickling, and enough peanut butter to be a bona fide member of a separatist group.

Nough said.

NONE OF THE ABOVE said...

In Great Depression I, we had factories making tons of things, stores were overloaded with inventory.

In Great Depression II, the US manufacturing sector is gone, so stores will be empty.

In Great Depression I, prices dropped due to deflation.

In Great Depression II, prices will skyrocket as hyperinflation takes hold.

In Great Depression I, people used the stock market to speculate and it crashed.

In Great Depression II, people used derivates to speculate, and now they're crashing.

Thanks to the two party system. A duopoly which destroyed a nation, for both parties were bought off by crooks who ruined the economy.

Miss Goldbug said...

Nasty looking graph. Change the date to 2008. We are only at the first leg down...

I think suspending short selling is wrong. Changing rules arbitrarilly shows this game is rigged. Thanks. The world is now completely scared and distrustful of our financial system.

Simultaneously, we have shotgun marriages going off between 'investment' banks and 'main street' banks. These shifty crooks know the derivatives leverage/swap model is unsellable and DEAD-even at a deep discount. Investment banks are now panicing and downsizing at supersonic speed looking to hook-up with any main street bank who will have them, and frantically changing their investment model from derivatives to a deposit (savings, interest) banks.

This is what savers have been waiting for for years now...much higher interest rates.

This is why Volcker had no choice but to raise rates. He did what a Fed Chairman is sappose to do-keep the economy from blowing up. But our last two Fed chairmen listened to pandering, greedy wall street shiesters begging for more and more rate cuts, instead of having logic to what really needs to be done-even if unpopular and difficult....

I wouldnt be a bit surprised if the Fed hired Volcker as a consultant to steer us through this mess greenspan created.

Anonymous said...

The Web Bots see September 22-27, 2008 as precursor dates to the main turning point date of October 7, 2008. Closely watch events during September 22-27, 2008 for hints as to what to expect on October 7, 2008

The Web Bots have never picked up any event lasting this long. In comparison, 9/11 length lasted about 10 days. This event will be four months of high emotion.

The Web Bots foresee consumer society collapsing by mid November 2008.

http://pimpinturtle.com/2008/09/22/update-on-web-bot-predictions-for-the-coming-weeksmonths-coast-to-coast-radio-with-george-and-cliff-the-time-monks.aspx

Anonymous said...

As I predicted HP'ers, the government will soon rewrite people's mortgages down to "affordable levels" and they will do the same with credit card debt. HP'ers, how does it feel to finance other people's bad behavior? To me it is awesome since I am in that category. HP'ers, thanks for being honest and hard working! Someone has to be the sucker and I am glad it was you!

nick is my new favorite HPer

Mine too. Normally, this type of Iritainment would piss me off, but I don't let strangers on blogs do that (anymore). Also, Nick has a very good point. Poor behavior is being rewarded more than ever. Crime pays.

Anonymous said...

sure 300 percent interest rates and maybe my purchace power will break even with all the leveragites and bogusosities..............

Anonymous said...

i sdtopped driving for pleasure at about 1.59 a gallon and now a days i spend one gallon a week.....turned off the hot water gas pilot and got my weekly shower to 3 bucks a month but watched the non use shipping and delivery charges rise 30 percent and ditto all miminums./ turned all electric off but my reading light or a television and sometimes cook stove and refer................still rich........?.

Anonymous said...

plant tobbaco...........

Anonymous said...

Flipping FRE and FNM

Accumulating VOYT and GBN

Do your own DD........IMO

Miss Goldbug said...

Get out your crystal balls HP'ers, and be realistic:

1) Are you buying, selling or holding.

MGB: I sold 90% of stock postions last fall, parked all in CD's thinking the Sh*t would hit the fan last Oct. But I think this is the year all hell will break loose.

2) What's the rest of the year and 2009 look like?

MGB: I won't lie, it looks bad for this year with a very bad Oct for the stock market and housing prices collapsing at the end of this year. I have been saying this about housing since 2003, and now finally, I think we are at the tipping point.

3) What stocks do you like?

MGB: Only gold and oil.

4) What stocks do you hate?

MGB: All of them, especially financials.

5) Where's the safest place for your money?

MGB: CD's. Its better to preserve capital than risk it in the "grand casino stock market".

6) Are you thinking about heading to the bunker or moving overseas to ride this sucker out?

MGB: We are prepared as well as we can be. No debt, paid off cars and renting. The only thing is I don't have room for a garden. Just hope it's not as bad as I imagine it will be.

Mike Hunt said...

Hey HP'ers,

Here is what I wrote to my congressman:

Congress has no right to give the White House and its Secretary of the Treasury the power to transfer the people's money to the richest bankers in the country. Vote No to the Bailout legislation. The Bailout legislation is being rammed through Congress in a matter of days. This is an illegal power grab by the White House and their richest friends on Wall Street. The Legislation allows the Treasury Department to appoint the same bankers who created the crisis to administer and dictate the use of trillions of our tax dollars. It is also one of the biggest transfers of wealth from working families to the ultra-rich in the history of the United States.

(NOTE BELOW THE PARTICULARS I ADDED)

The Secretary of the Treasury has been the ultimate Wall Street insider and is now continuing to enrich his former colleagues. When Wall Street offloads their toxic paper to the government this will be done without a bidding system and there will be no true price discovery. The taxpayer will have to eat the cost of this and Wall street will once again walk away with record profits and bonuses at the expense of Main Street. Furthermore there is no legislature that prevents the same institution from buying back the same paper at a deep discount lower so they can make money back on the buying side of the trade. This legislature is written in such a way that there is little to no protection to the taxpayer.

The current form of the plan should be rejected. Amendments should include:

-Adding a competitive bidding system to discover the true market value before allowing the government to buy the distressed paper.

-Not allowing the seller of this paper to every buy back the same note.

-Adding the same bidding system when the notes are to be later sold back to any institution with no favoritism in allocation.

-The companies that participate in this scheme should have to return the executive bonuses given in 2007 & 2008 to the government to offset the expenditure of this plan.

-There needs to be a review committee independent to the Secretary of the Treasury to review each transaction that the government buys or sells. This should be an appropriate check and balance system

-This should not apply to bad derivatives or credit card debt.

Anonymous said...

I like your plan M. Hunt.

If we could only get the main st. robbers to agree to it.