September 26, 2008

FLASH: J.P. Morgan predicts California home prices to crash 58%. Yes. 58%. And for US home prices to fall 37% from their fraud-and-speculation-peak


Ho.

Ly.

Crap.

Well, now even J.P. Morgan has gone HousingPANIC.

Does anyone know what a 58% fall in home prices looks like?

Seriously.

Do you have any idea what the world looks like after the knock-on effects of a 58% fall in home prices? Or 37% nationwide?

Example: Pay $500,000, get foreclosed, bank sells for $210,000.


No, that's not data the NAR wants you to see.

No, that's not what Connie de Groot, Mike Norman, Tom Adkins, Greg Swann, Nicholas Retsinas, David Lereah or Lawrence Yun wanted you to believe.

But believe now you will. California prices are already down a sickening 41%. Hitting 58% is a walk in the park. And 37% nationwide might be optimistic.

I feel sorry for all the innocent people caught up in this. Tradesmen who went to work for years and years in homebuilding, earning an honest living. Honest appraisers, who wouldn't fudge a number to make a commission. Home Depot salesmen, who really wanted you to have the right screw. And people who 'bought' homes because that's what people should do.

They listened to realtors on commission, they watched housing porn, they laughed at HP, and they got killed.

Never again America. Seriously, never again. George Bush, the US Congress, appraisers, ratings agencies, realtors and mortgage brokers should now be seen on the same level as terrorists. Instead of using bombs and guns, they used happy words, broken promises and glossy brochures. And they did much, much more damage to America than Osama bin Laden ever could.

In a presentation on its WaMu acquisition, J.P. Morgan forecast a 58% peak-to-trough slump in California home prices if the U.S. enters a severe recession. In Florida, house prices could fall 64% in such a scenario, while nationwide prices could drop 37%, the bank said.

73 comments:

Anonymous said...

Average folks make about 50,000 a year. With a 20% down payment how much house can they afford. I thought the old school was double your income that is what you can afford? Let me see ....I have not seen a house in the range of 100,00 to 150,000 in about 7 years? Help me out folks....
Now lets throw this in...2008 jobs are down. Gas and Food on the rise. Salaries cut. So that 50,000 a year job is probably at 42,000 or less. So what can the average folks afford now, if they can save for a house?
Who will benefit from this?
A shift in wealth.
I have family members salavating at the idea of buying lots of stock and realestate cheap cheap cheap.
Keith no matter how you look at it unless we have jobs in America, stuff made in America, solar wind energy in America .....
we are screwed.

gutless and lazy said...

And you were going to shut down HP. That's like leaving a movie 15 mins before the big finish. Silly, silly Keith!

Got pop corn everyone?!

Daphne64 said...

We probably will that kind of crash in real dollars, but the kind of deficits being piled up will have to be monetized - hello double, then triple digit inflation. My pet theory is that Fannie and Freddie will be ideal places to insert electronically created money - it would be easy to hide from accountants, and no one really knows what to expect the profit and loss numbers to be.

Anyway, I don't think our nominal home prices will fall much further on average. The bubble states could see another 10% or 15% drop in nominal terms, though.

Anonymous said...

In my words recap of what Crammer just said on TV .

Crammer seems to think that
Main Street is stupid ,because they could of got in on the good
deal that JP Morgan just got in on
by buying WAMU . Crammer thinks that
now the Big Banks left get in on all the good deals ,that the taxpayers could of gotten in on .

What Crammer fails to mention is that JP Morgan just bought the good assets ,and the junk loans are sold out to someone else .

I would like to know why this shill is on television trying to
act like he is a friend of the people .Further ,Crammer yelling fire in the movie house has been
only when it suits him .

Anonymous said...

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Worst-case scenario: Dow under 8400

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says without the Paulson plan, every component is in trouble. Let's take a look.

Without the Paulson plan, or if the plan is so watered down and delayed, I have been saying all bets are off and we could be in for a huge swoon. How huge?

I like to sit down and noodle on the actual components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a real sense of what can go wrong. And there is so much going wrong. The credit markets are vanishing, the earnings are vanishing and the only hope is a plan that ignites credit markets, forces money off the sidelines and gets this economy and the worldwide economy moving again.

Not long ago, I postulated that this market is literally repealing all of the moves since the Brazil-Russia-India-China emergence that gave us better markets to sell into than just the U.S. With the collapse of Chinese growth -- they have simply ceased to be importers since the summer -- the inflation in India, the war in Russia and a U.S.-led slowdown in Brazil (although that remains a robust market) BRIC is more like having a brick around your neck than a wind at your back.

Meanwhile, the peak in energy and the collapse of the financial system have left both of those groups in disarray with valuations simply too difficult to pin down, so you retreat to worst-case scenarios where you can at least find some terra firma -- mainly where stocks were last time things were this bad.

Given that most of these companies bought back stock at high prices and issued stock to executives, the actual value of the buybacks seems almost nonexistent, so the value that was created since those hard times is hard to see.

Finally, in a recession like we are having, one can only guess how badly the consumer will be scalded. This list of prices is about a scalded consumer.

I don't want to bury the punchline, but when you add these worst-case prices together you get Dow Jones 8378, which, reluctantly, I admit is where we are going if everything fails with the plan and the economies here and worldwide are left to their own devices.

Anonymous said...

The problem is what to do with the losses in the aftermath of a housing mania that inflated values beyond their worth .

Bad banks get bought out and than
lose . Borrowers that don't pay their mortgage get kicked out of the house . Why is this so hard to understand .

Had the Feds not interfered with these bail-out this process would of worked itself out a lot faster .

Daphne64 said...

I wonder how many readers understand the tulip reference. Maybe a third? How about the average schmuck like the one who phoned into CSPAN in support of the bailout because "a lot of people are hurting." Honestly, the guy didn't even understand the bailout was for BANKS. Probably less than 10% of Americans know anything about the Dutch tulip bubble or any other bubble.

I am guessing the 30 to 40 support (in some poorly worded surveys) for the bailout comes from folk who have no idea who the bailout is for, or how little of the benefit would dribble out of the banks to the real economy.

Anonymous said...

Didn't you hear?
The crysis is over. It's the truth!

Anonymous said...

Why the hell did WAMU send me a 0% for a year credit card offer just 2 weeks ago????

Anonymous said...

No one in their right mind is going to keep making morgage payments if their house value drops 58%, unless the thing is mostly paid off anyway.

But hey, I must be wrong, because Ben Bernanke says the "hold to maturity" value of a mortgage-backed security is much higher than the market value.

gutless and lazy, sitting on HUGE cash pile said...

Hey, cool! 37% on ave? That means I'll be buying that 2005 500k MLS house for only 337K.

SHWEEEEEET!!!

I just gotta wait until 2010 or there abouts.

Anonymous said...

Just a example :

Lets say a Bank goes BK and is taken over by a strong Bank . Who will win and who will lose ?

Winners
Funds on deposit insured by FDIC
Bigger Bank that gets a good deal on a Bank with Branches .
People who shorted the stock

Losers
Stockholders in the Company
Creditors against the Company
Equity holders with the Company.
Investors who hold equity positions in loans that might not be the face value of the loan .
Merging Bank taking over would be a loser if they agreed to take on the Bad loans of that bank .

Ok, so if you Look at it from that standpoint . What Wall Street is trying to sell is that the taxpayers should be the jerk that buys the bad loans ,therefore it increases the value of the Bad Bank ,and end up being a loser .


All this so that the Bank can say "Thanks" ,now I'm richer and I will do what I want . I give no assurance that I will lend .


You get the picture of the deal Wall Street is trying to cut .
Fools deal for taxpayers .

Anonymous said...

You know if Wall Street just stopped trying to screw the public on this deal with all the lies ,but Wall Street is so greedy ,they want to get the better of the taxpayers .

keith said...

BBC just had a live report from Detroit about homes going for $1,000 3-bedroom.

Property taxes of $6,000 a year

Everyone leaving Detroit - no buyers.

BTW, 6% commission on a $1,000 house is.... wait for it... $60

Hmm...

Anonymous said...

$210,000 is still too high

Try $150

Agent 99 said...

Hey, let's all go to Detroit and start an HP utopia!
Naw, apparently that would include too many gun owners.

Anonymous said...

come on keith, it was clinton's administration that strong armed the mortgage industry into accepting welfare income on loan applications.

The idea was that made if fairer for minorities to enter the "ownership" society.

Anonymous said...

i bet that Detroit will soon offer free houses if you simply pay the early property taxes.

actually, that is not a bad idea. get people to sign up to pay property taxes for a period of 5-10 years and they get the house for free.

Anonymous said...

$1000 is expensive - i looked into buying 3br homes in detroit and saw many in the $1 - $50 range

the realwhores have a commission floor of $1500. there isnt a house in that cracked out wasteland worth $1501 so i look elsewhere. i think it might become america's first abandoned city

Anonymous said...

still does not break even my purchace power loss from over the last 15 years of manipulated markets and laws nor the loss of purchace power from depositing 1 dollar into the bank and that act allowing the creation of 10, 20, 30 or even 100 of debt dollars indistinguishable from my dollar that p;laced competing bids on housing ....against my dollar...........

Anonymous said...

Banks stop lending.....

housing might hit 0

try to get a loan i dare you its over

Underwriting will toast your pre approval in a firepit

Anonymous said...

Someone please arrest Mozillo and the other mortgage CEO's and all of the flippers who committed fraud. Seize their assets and use them to pay for the bank losses. While we are at it put them into work camps instead of white collar prisons. Have them work on repairing our infrastructure. Think of all of those Depression era programs that had unemployed building bridges, fixing roads, thinning forests. Put these people to work repairing our country that their greed and wickedness is trying to destroy. Don't make the middle class pay for the sins of these scumbags.

Ross said...

Maybe Warren Buffet can just "buy" Detroit. I've heard they have a nice lake.

Anonymous said...

Well this is dangerous. A drop of 50 to 65 percent will have everyone stop paying their mortgages! So either way everyone is screwed! Is as simple as that! All these banks are going to sink!

VP said...

Am I the only one who thinks real estate on the East Coast is still way overpriced?

Anonymous said...

Screw you! I LOVE BUSH!

It's all OBAMA and CLINTON's fault you rabid Lefty kooks!! Take your Che Guevara and Castro coffee mugs and shove them up your ass!!

I L.O.V.E BOOOSH!!!! A True American Cowboy!!

I L.O.V.E MCCAIN!!!! A True American Hero!!

I L.O.V.E PALIN!!!! A True American Moose Hunter!!

Obama is a Muslim Terrorist in Disguise and his wife is an AMERICA HATER!!! Plus, THEY ARE BOTH BLAAAAACK!!! They'll turn the White House into a Crack House!!!

But seriously folks. When are you guys going to realize that both parties are at fault. There is no lesser of two evils when both evils will destroy our Constitution, our Bill of Rights, protect the corporate criminals and destroy our economy by endlessly spending taxpayer money like drunken sailors.

There is NO LESSER OF TWO EVILS!!! BOTH parties are the problem.

WAKE THE F*CK UP!!!

Skeletor said...

When a young man with good credit who makes $70k can't afford to buy a house, the market is STILL TOO HIGH

I'll tell you when the bottom hits:
when the vast majority of people (including bankers and investors) finally see housing as a consumable, as a place to live that requires upkeep and not as a get r-ch quick scheme. Only then will things turn around and stabilize.

Anonymous said...

haha, $500k homes going for $210k?

in certain parts of california they're already at that price.

someone commented about $150k, i've been anticipating $165k...

Anonymous said...

GREG SWANN ROCKS!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

The current recession is not caused by lack of credit . Current recession is caused by Americans not able to live off credit any more . So feeling up credit markets is a
fake excus for a bail-out .

Anonymous said...

I cannot believe that the majority of the American people are against the bailout. How many experts do the American people have to hear from before they realize the serious danger posed by this crisis? Didn’t the American people learned from the Y2K crisis that we must listen to the experts? For how long did the Y2K experts warn us to prepare for societal collapse and financial meltdown come 1-1-00? And yet still Americans did not adequately prepare themselves for 1-1-00 when, as predicted by the experts, planes fell from the sky, electrical grids closed down, and the entire fabric of modern civilization was torn asunder.

Oh yeah. That’s right All the experts were wrong.

Well, I still say we turn over the 750 billion, just in case. Maybe the experts are right this time.

Hmm, the dow was up today despite no bailout. Geez, maybe the imminent collapse of Western Civilization has been put on hold. Perhaps the banksters need more time to chick little around Congress some more, telling them not to reason why, just sell out the taxpayers and leave ‘em high and dry.

i've had it said...

I agree 100 percent with the prediction that everyone who bought since 2002 will walk away from their homes. This means they won't pay back the banks and they will all go bankrupt. We have seen just the beginning here. It is going to get worse, much worse.

Jeff said...

Diana Olick wants to bail out the speculators

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26904853

Are you kidding me?

Obama girl said...

I guess you fuktard taxpayers need to cough up another $700 billion...

Anonymous said...

58% sounds about right. We bought in the lovely OC in '98 for $283K just as real estate was starting to take off here. The people next door bought in '06 for $825K. 58% drop = $346.5K. Essentially, Morgan says prices will revert back to the ~1996 bottom + inflation.

My house won't have kept up with inflation but I won't be upside down and would have paid a lot more in rent than I do in PITI+upkeep to live in the same neighborhood/schools.

Just hoping all the newer neighbors had a big down payment....

i've had it said...

The US Mint announced tofay that it will stop selling buffalo dollars because they have run out. They won't apparently be minting anymore anytime soon I guess.

Anonymous said...

But Keith all I have ever heard OVER AND OVER for the past 30 years is "California real estate never goes down, it ALWAYS appreciates"!

Right?

California is Burning said...

Some areas in California areas (inland) already down 50% to 60% from the peak. Historically, though, the prices still appear on the high side.

We are all screwed. The consumer is 2/3 of the economy. And sky high housing prices have put the consumer under pressure. Meaning, he does not have any extra money after paying his housing costs. So even if some sucker is still able to pay his bills and not get foreclosed on, he still has no disposable income to spend on other crap. This means we are all going down, bailout or no bailout.

Anonymous said...

Senator Shelby Web site has 200 professors
from the best colleges in the United States (,Yale ,Harvard ,etc,)in opposition to the Paulson Plan in a Petition . Go to the site and the Petition explains why .

I would rather go with 200 "experts" than One Paulson who has a hidden agenda and was a Wall Street thug himself.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if JP Morgan also yells "fire" in crowded theatres? t?

In any event, this whole thing is planned, they want it to happen and now they are just making it go faster.

Inflate, deflate and buy everything up on the cheap to consolidate your position and obtain more power.

And, by the way folks, The Fed, Wells Fargo, Chase, BofA and JP Morgan are all the same people, as are your so-called leaders.

Come on, the FDIC "sells" them a $300 billion company for $1.9 Billion?

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...

come on keith, it was clinton's administration that strong armed the mortgage industry into accepting welfare income on loan applications.

The idea was that made if fairer for minorities to enter the "ownership" society."

Don't be such a brainstem. Whether the mortgage industry accepted welfare income as income on a mortgage application does not make a damn bit of difference. If someone comes in looking for a mortgage and only makes $20K a year they should not be given a mortgage. Does not matter if the money came from welfare or walmart or crack dealing. $20K is not enough money to buy a house. If the banks decided to get clever and give a $20K welfare queen a $300K mortgage that is the banks fault. Not Clinton's and not Bush's.

The partisan bickering is just a load of old shit and we've got to get past it if we are to get through the crash of the entire US economy if not the world economy.

The blame in all of this rests squarely on the shoulders of the parties who signed the contracts: The banks and the buyers. Stupid decisions were made and neither party should be allowed to escape the unpleasant reality that is the result of their stupidity.

BB said...

Houses in Detroit have sold for $1.00 recently. No shit. Don't believe me?

Google "detroit $1 house"

.

Anonymous said...

.



58%



Then Hurry the F**K up!




.

pulte homes up said...

Who cares what JP says?

PHM to be up Monday.

LMAO said...

"Anonymous said...
So feeling up credit markets is a
fake excus for a bail-out ."

That has to be one of the funniest typos I have ever seen.

Is the Fed's Discount Window now called The Glory Hole?

wc said...

Well that certainly will get things moving again. If I can get what's selling for $500K now for $210 - I'll buy it in cash. Who needs lenders at that price.

a.creampuff said...

Housing Panic in all its glory. This is the proverbial "it", friends.

100% up, a doubling, is offset by 50% down, a halving. It's in the bag!

short knocker said...

the chickens have come home to roost.

Anonymous said...

The bailout plan is holding the U.S. Citizens hostage by saying give private companies your tax dollars or the economy will fail (which it will anyhow). The only way a bank is involved is because Paulson is running ***** like its his own personal hedge fund and that a lot of banks are going down because people are doing runs on them

Anonymous said...

Keith, you HAVE to read this! If we're going to pay for this crappy bailout, why not make it actually help ALL of us?(Don't know the author)
I LOVE THIS PROPOSAL !!


I’m against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I’m in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in

a We Deserve It Dividend.

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000

bonafide adults in the U.S.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman

and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.

My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a

We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free.

So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.

That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.

A husband and wife has $595,000.00.

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.

Repay college loans – what a great boost to new grads

Put away money for college – it’ll be there

Save in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.

Buy a new car – create jobs

Invest in the market – capital drives growth

Pay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improves


Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks

who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company

that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it...instead of trickling out

a puny $1000.00 ( “vote buy” ) economic incentive.

If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG – liquidate it.

Sell off its parts.

Let American General go back to being American General.

Sell off the real estate.

Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can “never work.”

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion

We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .

And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned

instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

Anonymous said...

ha ha mclooser botched the bailout

Happy OC Renter said...

58%? No way! Last I read, SoCal was down 43.5% YoY, not counting whatever it was down last year. We still have 2-3 more years of Alt-A and Pay Option resets to go, which means this downturn has just begun!

Maybe it was a typo! I think 85% sounds closer to the truth.

I expect to be able to buy a nice house for a few ounces of Gold in a couple of years. No mortgage required!

I sure am glad I sold my house in Phoenix near the peak. It's lost a third of it's value since, according to Zillow.com.

Here in OC, a Realtwhore left a nice card on my doorstep showing that a 4 bedroom , 3 bath bank owned home nearby just sold for $168,000, while the median price around here is still hovering in the $500,000 range. Prices are in a free fall and going much lower.

I am a happy renter, biding my time until the price of houses drop and the price of Gold explodes until I can by a house with Gold Coin.

Anonymous said...

Diana Olick wants to bail out the speculators

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26904853

Are you kidding me?


That's one way to interpret what she said. I didn't

patrat said...

This IS a massive Ponzi scheme and it is all falling down. There was really no money there - Fake Sh#t. A lot of people lied, got their money and put it in Swiss banks, offshore accounts - not here in the US. I don't agree with Cramer - the rich are not taking money out of bank accounts - they don't put their money in bank accounts. I do believe the Chinese and maybe some others out there in the global economy are really pissed that we have sold them a bunch of crap that is worthless. There is more to this story than we are being told. We ARE a debtor nation. We owe our soul to the "Global Economy".

Anonymous said...

This is a fun read for all of you as you prepare for the impending economic collapse:

Lessons Every American Needs to Know from the Soviet Economic Collapse

Excerpt:
Many people expend a lot of energy protesting against their irresponsible, unresponsive government. It seems like a terrible waste of time, considering how ineffectual their protests are. Is it enough of a consolation for them to be able to read about their efforts in the foreign press? I think that they would feel better if they tuned out the politicians, the way the politicians tune them out. It's as easy as turning off the television set. If they try it, they will probably observe that nothing about their lives has changed, nothing at all, except maybe their mood has improved. They might also find that they have more time and energy to devote to more important things.

patrat said...

This IS a massive Ponzi scheme and it is all falling down. There was really no money there - Fake Sh#t. A lot of people lied, got their money and put it in Swiss banks, offshore accounts - not here in the US. I don't agree with Cramer - the rich are not taking money out of bank accounts - they son't put their money in ebank accounts. I do believe the Chinese and maybe some others out there in the global economy are really pissed that we have sold them a bunch of crap that is worthless. There is more to this story than we are being told. We ARE a debtor nation. We owe our soul to the "Global Economy".

Miss Goldbug said...

I have been saying this for a while now, that prices have to drop back not 10 years, but prices of 20 years ago here in the bay area.

Some probably think this will never happen, but if they're talking 58% out in the open right now, that tells you it's going to be much lower.

san jose said...

What good websites are you guys using as your sources of information on the housing/credit crisis besides housingpanic (in my opinion the best one)? I am using patrick.net, tickerforum.org, globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com, rgemonitor.com, europac.net, piggington.com, and http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Commentary/ByAuthor/BillFleckenstein.aspx?pkw=PI&vendor=Paid+Inclusion&OCID=iSEMPI. What other websites have independent opinions, well thought out ideas, and have been accurate in predicting what has been happenening.

Anonymous said...

Cramer is a tool. I hate him.

He's twisting this bill around so much making it appear the deal is so sweet, and basically said -how can the stupid people pass on making money?

This is the death of leverage folks. The model is broken and it's not coming back.

Hopefully Cramer will be out of a job soon.

Holyschlitz said...

Hey anon (September 27, 2008 12:29 AM)

Check your math:

$85000000000/$200000000 = $425.00

Anonymous said...

How can the taxes on "giveaway" houses in Detroit be $6000???

Aren't the house taxes there a percentage of assessed value? And won't the taxes on the house be refigured when the new owner purchases the house for next to nothing? $6000 would be a MULTIPLE of assessed value rather than a percentage.

Dan said...

HEY.

Who gives a frig if they fall by 60 pct!?!???!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

THAT MEANS THEY WERE OVERPRICED BY 60 PCT!!!!!!!!!

Sorry if I seem to be a rabid 13 year old from the CAPSLOCK above, but for the love of all that is holy, I moved to SoCal with a "top 1%" salary and STILL couldn't buy anything other than a frickin' pig sty because home prices were insanely astronomical.

Good insanity, Hello common sense.

Housing prices were WAY out of whack with household incomes.

Sorry to you impulse buyers, you're gonna take a damn bath.

Stuck in So Pa said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can the taxes on "giveaway" houses in Detroit be $6000???

Aren't the house taxes there a percentage of assessed value? And won't the taxes on the house be refigured when the new owner purchases the house for next to nothing? $6000 would be a MULTIPLE of assessed value rather than a percentage.
=================================
You have to remember, property taxes (here in Taxsylvania, and in most other states,) have no basis in reality, but rather are based solely on how greedy the giant state, county, and teacher's unions are come contract time.
Example: Let's say that the teachers union, giving itself its usual A+++++++ rating, decides that its going to award itself a 20% (remember, kids come first)raise next year. It tells (that's “negotiate with,” to the sheeple) the school board what is expected, the school board promptly kneels and kisses the ring (Thanks Keith), and PRESTO!, your house is magically worth 20% more.

Here in Taxsylvania, home price is meaningless, it's all about greed. The fact that you could not sell your place for any way near assessed value counts for naught. Assessors know who pays their salaries. And if you challenge the outrageous assessments, they just re-assess you and up your assessed amount even higher to teach you a lesson about keeping your mouth shut, and pay up, if you know what's good for you.

And, to ad insult to injury, the first THREE layers of assessment appeals, are carried out, and conducted by, the subcontractor a$$holes who do the assessments. Talking to people who have suffered through this farce, ALL appeals are ALWAYS rejected. You have to run around with these clowns, sometimes for years, before you even get into tax court before a judge! Most people cave in defeat, which is the expected and planned result.

That's how a $1.00 house can have a $6000 tax bill, because the tax ba$tard$ have determined that it is “worth” whatever the price base is that would generate $6000, because that's how much they are expected to come up with, regardless of it's “mark-to-market” real worth, which is $1.00!

Property taxes, if nothing else, will kill this country. Anyone that thinks that the politico's and unions are going to take a hit during the down times, might as well start packing now. I see that the sheriff's deputies now storm delinquent seized houses with drawn weapons now; kind of like Manson was holed up inside, that's how bad it's getting. The first homeowner who dies in a gun battle, and takes some deputies with him, because he couldn't afford the outrageous property tax increases, will be the tipping domino, I'm afraid.

Anonymous said...

Whenever some one is selling me a con job ,I have to ask why .

The Wall Street gang is out to fleece the American people or any investor who goes into the casino .

I not against making money,but fleecing someone is playing them for a fool .
What happened this time is that Wall Street went to far.

Wall Street created a big huge
Ponzi-scheme of leverage using dopes as pawns (borrowers ) so they could make more money . The game was based on inflated values of real estate to keep it going .

If its a 5 trillion dollars lost ,
than Wall Street should pay it .
The liar loan borrowers should have a penalty also .

This economic issue that is threatening the country is only
showing how misplaced our values have been and how corrupt our
Politicians have become .

Is clear that the Fat Cats of Wall Street owned the Politicians ,or the de-regulation would not of occurred .

Expecting greedy Wall Street to self-regulate was the first mistake . Capitalism is a good concept ,but it must be regulated to keep the greedy ones from
creating a scam .

So, in the final analysis Wall Street brought us down ,just like they did in 1929 . Don't give those creeps and criminals with their fat wallets one more penny .
Stop the bail out because Wall Street won't care if you suffer
because of their acts .

Bobby Sherman said...

Maybe it's just me, but what's the big crisis? Prices increased 15% annually for (5) years, and people didn't REALLY think their valuable assets would keep increasing in value forever, did they? If they did, wouldn't their kids be pretty much screwed, with no hopes of owning a place of their own?

I watched from the sidelines as housing affordability dropped in California down to 6%, in certain areas. Also not a sustainable condition, so it has no choice BUT to revert to the mean.

And it's not just houses: Apple stock peaked at $200, and recently dropped back down around $125 within just a few months. That's a 40% off price, but so what? Perceptions of value and worth change, and if people can't handle price fluctuations, they shouldn't be investing.

Benji Franklin said...

You know, it's occurred to me today that perhaps Bernanke and Paulson (under the direction of Bush) no doubt over-asked for powers, such that their request would be a 'shock and awe' on politicians, simply knowing they'd be able to back off the more onerous aspects of their request as a negotiating tactic.

The Bush regime has a reputation for being power-hungry, willing to abrogate by hook or crook. Perhaps Bush felt they should live up to their reputation on the way out the door, since they'd raised such ire, there was nothing left to lose.

If they got lucky, they might actually have GOTTEN the powers they requested, but either way, it's a smart tactic to start out asking for much more than you know you'll ever get.

Andrew Hac said...

OK, Snapper Turtle, fat-ass Americano and all other tortoise-like creepers out there,

Listen and listen hard:
A house is a place to sleep in, eat your meal, do your homeworks, make kids, get piped-up, get shitface, smoke a doobie, take a doo-doo, etc...
A house is not an investment, a Las Vegas casino, a stock purchase certificate, a trading commodity, a bank, an ATM machine, etc...
Not every turtle is entitled to own a house. Owning a house is a privilege, not a right, not an endowment from God or Uncle Bushy.

Most Americano believe that it is their God-given right to own a house. Heck NO !!! That is incorrect. It is also stupid to heed that belief. If you are poor, ignorant, illiterate, dumb, uneducated, buckteeth, harelip, fat, obese, or just plain WACKO then you do not have the right, the mean or the privilege to own a house. No BUT, IF, HOW, WHEN ,WHY, WHAT, etc...

The game of survival is simple. You are strong then you will survive and prosper. Your descendant will grow strong and will not have rotten teeth or marry his/her cousin as spouse. Joe6Pack is like a gazelle in the African Segenreti plain, his destiny is to be hunted down, chased after, pursued relentlessly, devoured by the lions, the leopards, the hyenas, etc... Joe6Pack does not simply possess any right or privilege to own a house in the land of the Americano AKA the land of the Skunk.

Got it, Turtle ???

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

BTW, 6% commission on a $1,000 house is.... wait for it... $60

LOL ... that's about all the realtors have been worth all along anyway.

On this 58% on California thing ... SWEEEEETTT!!!!!

Got plenty of guns & ammo here so I'm online now looking at ham radio gear to keep in touch when all hell breaks loose.

Frank
WA2W

Anonymous said...

Swanndive, 2006:

In any case, here do I compile my list of 21 really good reasons to bank on the future of the Phoenix area real estate market:

1. The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
2. A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
3. The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.
4. Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.
5. Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.
6. Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.
7. Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.
8. Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.
9. There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.
10. Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.
11. While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.
12. The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.
13. People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.
14. Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.
15. We build thousands more new homes every year.
16. The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.
17. Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.
18. Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.
19. People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.
20. A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
21. Year-around golf.

Anonymous said...

.



21 points on phoenix...

you only need 8 ,

1. to many mexicans

2. to much traffic

3. to many old golfers in mismatched loud clothes

4. to Hot

5. to trendy

6. to yuppie and metro

6. to many confusing freeways 101 202, 10, 87...

7. to many mexicans

8. ironically no good mexican food



.




.

Anonymous said...

Take a look at the areas in SoCAL that are depressed. Much of that RE was purchased by low-income minorities who had NO ability to make even the 1st mortgage payment.

What's going to happen is that these very same people will get a SECOND bite of the apple, thanks in part to commie organizations like ACORN! No one except minorities would find these areas appealing...crime, gangs, and no pride of ownership. In other words...dumps!

I would love to 'trade up' in my own neighborhood, but unfortunately there are NO bargains because our property values have not declined.

It looks like we will just have to import more unskilled laborers and underclasses to fill the glut of foreclosures in blighted areas!

Anonymous said...

ITS about time.Home pricess have been inflated for last 10 years

JDallas said...

Wow , a price drop of 58%. Any news on how long this will take to occur ? More importantly, when will these newly merged banks begin lending credit.