I'm not sure if there could be a more clear sign.
Even a Newsweek cover would be less convincing.
Dollar to the moon Alice!
August 18, 2008
Casey Serin loves gold and hates the US dollar. HP'ers, you know what to do now.
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63 comments:
The end of the Olympics in China is a major wild card.
Anything could happen.
this is a great sign. it means that all the Caseys that speculated on the housing bubble have licked their wounds and are now positioning themselves to pounce on the upcoming gold bubble (yeah it's coming).
I say buy gold now while its cheap, then unload it on these idiots when it skyrockets.
Hey Keith, don't start crowing until the USD index breaks 80. Looks to me like it's a stalled rally, one that was probably engineered by the central banks.
In the meantime I'm buying gold and silver at some darned good prices. The real show starts after the Fall elections when it's time for those pols to make good on their promises. We'll see our first trillion-dollar budget deficits (Bill Gross is the head cheerleader) and by 2010 you'll wish you had bought gold at $800 and silver at $14.50. I'll be selling mine to fools like you at much higher prices.
I think the good ol' USA is about two years ahead of the UK and the euro-zone when it comes to our housing collapse. So I expect the GBP and Euro to keep falling.
Ben's next big problem will be deflation I think
The commodities bubble bust should be good news for American consumers and for the stock market.
Keep an open mind. Things have changed.
The Newsweek cover story on inflation last week was another good sign. Kind of like the SI Jinx. Or the "Gaga for housing" Time cover.
Casey Serin loving gold and hating the dollar is a classic though. Classic.
Beware of Exhange Traded Funds:
Who is the funds countpart?
Is it a bank?
The pictures of him panning for gold are simply priceless!
I think gold is already overpriced.
The problem with gold is that when the price finally busts (which it must), it will take years (if ever) to break even on it.
I see the ads on TV telling people to mail in their old gold jewelry to melt it down for cash. It reminds me of the silver frenzy back when the Hunt brothers corner the market.
Bottom line – if you’re not already into gold, now is NOT the time to buy.
What’s the line?.... if you’re playing poker and you don’t know who the sucker is at the table, it’s you?
Deflation! Where?
The price of oil correcting to $110 after going from 70 to 147 (without a breath) is not deflation.
Gold is not money anymore. It merely represents catastrophe insurance and not a sign of deflation.
Housing is returning to normal after hysteria bubble mania. I still can not afford a home with 30% of my post tax take home pay (my father paid 25% and had 3 kids). Deflation? Of the bubble maybe. How about you get back to me in 12 years (ala Japan).
Food? Still going up here; no deflation detected.
Consumer goods? Still going up here; no deflation detected.
Don't get me wrong! I earn USD and could use a little of that deflation. But Ben says he has a printing press (and a helicopter).
You can go to cash if you like but John Williams says the value of your buck is deflating at a rate of 12% per annum.
The gold run is over folks.hopefully you sold at 1000.Invest your money in quality stocks and you wull be a winner.
Anyone know where casey is living? Is he in a half way house?
Do the opposite of what this clown says.
keith said...
I think the good ol' USA is about two years ahead of the UK and the euro-zone when it comes to our housing collapse. So I expect the GBP and Euro to keep falling.
The Option ARMs, Pick a Pay Option, and Neg Amorts have not even begun to reset yet and already they are a problem. Resets on these loans will not top out until 2010 & 2011.
http://tinyurl.com/6pf7v2
So are we there yet?
JaneZ
Murder Casey?
Please tell me it was murder Casey?
you see bubbles everywhere and throw the term around far too lightly.
"So I expect the GBP and Euro to keep falling."
Do you think this could lead to gold and the USD to decouple its inverse relation? Didn't a lot of money flee the USD for gold? Why wouldn't a lot of money flee the GBP and the Euro for gold? This is all over my head and would like to hear others opinions. Could there be a global loss of faith in fiat currencies, a global shift to gold?
You guys are hilarious. One day it's $2000 gold the next it's buy dollars.
I think we have one last rally this winter. I sold half at the peak and will sell or hold the other half depending on the price. No matter either way, basis minus six zeros.
At the bottom no one will want it.
Casey and Cramer should have thier own TV show, giving financial advice.......NOT!
"are now positioning themselves to pounce on the upcoming gold bubble (yeah it's coming).
I say buy gold now while its cheap, then unload it on these idiots when it skyrockets."
LOL...any other sage advice?
Keith, you certainly seem to have pulled a quick reversal regarding gold. Do you really think its goose is cooked? Has the long-term fundamental picture changed in the past six months? I'd love to hear your reasoning.
As far as I can tell, the recent dollar strength / gold selloff has nothing to do with fundamentals and is largely technical. Sure, large institutions may unload positions to generate much-needed cash, but won't the Fed's response to deflationary pressure be further dollar devaluation? You seem to be saying that it's different this time, but why?
Yes, I'm in the deflation / oil bubble burst / stock rally / dollar rally camp
I'm not a permabull or permabear on anything.
Folks,
This is no longer about sitting in your comfortable chair saying, Hmmmm...where should I position my assets now?
This is gonna be systemic meltdown, society coming apart at the seams.
"In the meantime I'm buying gold and silver at some darned good prices. The real show starts after the Fall elections when it's time for those pols to make good on their promises. We'll see our first trillion-dollar budget deficits (Bill Gross is the head cheerleader) and by 2010 you'll wish you had bought gold at $800 and silver at $14.50. I'll be selling mine to fools like you at much higher prices."
Heh Heh. The Perma-Libertarians just can't get their mind around deflation.
Keith,
I was not aware there was any camp predicting both deflation and a stock rally. Aren't the two notions antithetical? If prices go down, driving down corporate earnings, shouldn't the stock markets drop as well? After all, if there are fewer dollars to go around, then there will be less money available to invest in the stock market. This is what happened during the Great Depression, as well as the Japanese deflation, yes?
Even if your stock rally prediction is more short-term, won't the fact that we're in a deep recession put a damper on it? I could see the DOW inching its way back up to 12,000 before this fall, but shouldn't it eventually be on its way back down to about 10,000 or even lower, since this is, after all, the worst recession in the post-war period?
Also, the US government is now in the position of providing massive amounts of liquidity for failed banks and lenders, and the casualties are going to mount during the next year. This broad intervention is itself inflationary. Of course, I won't even bother to go into our massive public and private debt, which everyone here is well familiar with. Isn't it "Print or Die" at this point? And doesn't your prediction of a combined dollar rally, stock market rally, and oil price collapse sound almost too good to be true for the US economy at this point? I'm no permabear, but I don't see why things would suddenly turn around at this point.
Yes, I'm in the deflation / oil bubble burst / stock rally / dollar rally camp
I'm not a permabull or permabear on anything.
August 18, 2008 5:47 PM
=========
Whatever dude. You were saying sell dollars, buy oil and buy gold. Up until the bubble burst that is. Your advice is good...but about 3 months too late.
DOPES!
This guy almost seems too good to be true.
Is it really possible for anyone to be this comically stupid?!
Thanks for the tip Keith.
Crap. Gotta unload soon.
get a clue, fools. commodity prices across the board have been rising for years and this "bust" you refer to has only brought prices down to levels that were new all-time highs earlier this year.
inflation is winding its away through the system and deflation is an impossibility. Ben Bernanke already told you how easy it is for the Fed to fight deflation.
And the rest of the world is not depending on the US credit market to continue to buy goods and services.
And inflation becoming mainstream news does not mean its going to magically go away as some of you psuedo-contrarian fudgepackers seem to believe.
At this point you are better off owning anything but Federal Reserve Notes. Even real estate.
DOPES!!
I think gold is already overpriced.
LOL Ya I agree--gold should only be about $415 an ounce--about half what it was in 1980. That would make sense, because, of course, U.S. dollars are worth TWICE what they were worth in 1980 in terms of anything else--bread, a hamburger, a music album, a postage stamp, oil, gas, copper, uranium, steel, a house, a car, a year at college, an hour of labor, 15 minutes with a doctor, a dollar's worth of earnings in a Dow stock, etc. All those things are now HALF the price IN DOLLARS as in 1980. Right? I'm mean, WOW that U.S. "strong dollar" policy sure has worked out well in 30 years, right?
RIGHT?!?!?!?!
LOLOL!
Pop quiz: What did the price of gold do last year between Sep 1 and March? And the year before that? And the year before that?
Hmm, last I checked the party line over here on HP it was "Dow Jones Industrial Average and One Ounce of Gold Will Converge".
The reasoning behind this was, as I recall, "because Peter Schiff said so on TV".
Yet now that gold has fallen slightly the outlook has changed dramatically, ehh?
I guess if you predict every possible scenario, at least one of your predictions will come true?
Clowns. Do any of you have actually invest in anything at all? Or just sit on declining USDs?
Maybe Serin is a Bush Love child?
Given that every industrialized economy BUT the USA got kicked in the shorts these last few weeks (Canada, Australia, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Eurozone overall) it looks like their currencies are following, yes, the dollar is making a comeback.
GET RID OF YOUR DEBT. You won't be able to pay it off with your lunch money in three years' time, despite the inflationists' claims.
keith, you are correct on all but stocks. they are going to deflate as well because the gains since the bush maladministration are almost solely due to dollar destruction. the neoconecons erroneously believe (as usual) that the great depression was mainly the fault of collapsing asset prices. so, they have busily tried to destroy the dollar to fend this off and in the end they will have made things much worse. of course its obvious the primary reason for the last great deflationary period was the popping of massively over leveraged credit bubbles along with soaring debt and falling real wages. sound familiar? deflation owns us now and there is no escaping until it takes us to its natural bottom. no escaping. bernanke has spent his life studying this phenomenon and knows every theory that has ever been advanced on the subject of preventing it and let me tell you he is scared. he knows that with every trick ever thought of its still a long shot he can keep the monster at bay. pray for him, he is the right man at the right time and still will likely fail. we are in a really dangerous period.
>Anonymous said…
> Pop quiz: What did the price of gold do last year
> between Sep 1 and March? And the year before
> that? And the year before that?
You could say the same thing about real estate prices until recently.
Like all bubbles, the price keeps going up… until it tanks.
My problem with gold is that once the price tanks it takes a long LONG time to make up your losses.
For example: take a look at this graph of gold prices over the last 30 years.
http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html
Let’s say, for example, you’re sitting here in mid 1981. You look at the dramatic increase in gold prices over the past 10 years, so you stock up thinking that you’ve bought a sure thing.
The next thing you know, the bottom drops out. Now, that $700/oz gold you’ve bought has bottomed out at about $340/oz, and it takes until 2004 for the price to get up enough to make up your losses. That’s right: you have to sit on your gold for almost 20 years in order to break even.
Now, if you had a crystal ball to know when the prices were going to peak, I’d say sure, buy it until the day before the bottom drops out. But since it’s impossible to know exactly when the peak is going to happen, you’re gambling against history.
You can’t eat gold. You can’t heat your house with it, and the only real value of it comes from the fact that people say it has value.
But even with inflation, deflation, dollar-destruction, etc: cash is liquid where gold is not. You can’t go to the grocery store and say “I’ll trade this loaf of bread for this chunk of gold”. Sure: if the end of the world comes maybe that will be the case; but if the end of the world comes the least of our troubles will be a argument over gold prices.
The only gold I have is in collector coins. And even then I’m not buying at these prices.
Deflation, yeah right. My daughter's tuition bill for Fall semester just arrived. It's 5% higher than they forecast just last May. Our company's health insurance premium is up 8% since last quarter. How do you explain those away deflationistas?
Outside of a few commodities, there is no deflation for people living in the real world.
It is deflation all the way which includes the stock market. I got out at 14,000. I am not even close to going back in.
Gold does well in deflation and inflation, so that one is up in the air. I am still buying gold but also saving cash for future fire sales in real estate.
Commodities are scheduled to crash. This includes oil and gold. Anybody who can read the various CFR organs already knows this.
Wake me up when he is in love with hard work.
Wait for a crisis to sell gold. Bear Stearns sent gold over $1000, Fannie Mae sent it to $975. If you have gold you want to get rid of, wait for a crisis and sell before the Paulson/Bernanke weekend rescue. Maybe $925/ounce next crisis? Also, if there are any financial stocks you are thinking of buying, that will be the time to buy.
BTW, nothing is funnier than than "gold is money" fundamentalists trying to prove that gold wasn't overpriced in 1980.
SELL Gold
SELL Stocks
SELL Your house along with anything and everything you can liquidate including your 401K, it will be worthless much sooner than you retire
SELL SELL SELL ! ! !
Mr. Permabear
For the retards asking "Where is the deflation", here is a an idea - stop looking at price movements.
Credit is contracting and the money supply is weakening...that is deflation.
Remeber Keith's recent absence?
Let me get this straight:
1. Sell gold
2. Buy dollar
Either aliens have abducted Keith or the PPT has taken over.
I hope you are only speaking from a trader's perspective, not an investor's. You were the one warning about bank failures and how bad this is going to get. Now things have changed?
Won't you all be surprised when Casey turns out to be right?
Ha ha, fools......
Funny how all you jackasses have been screaming for months about Ben and the inkjets, now you claim "deflation" or decrease in the money supply. How do you figure?
You're just chasing the latest trend and trying to prognosticate on it.
Little puppy dogs.....
A deflationary environment goes along with falling stock prices, so you're wrong again on that count.
Ben's next big problem will be deflation I think
-----------------------------------
dude, deflation has been here for a while. oil increasing is not inflation, it is price inflation for that particular commodity, not monetary inflation.
you may have been early to the housing bubble party but you are late to the deflation party. It is about money AND credit, not just money(m3).
Peter Schiff would disagree with you.
I think Peter Schiff is right that gold is still way undervalued at $800.00.
Casey the assclown is just looking for the next bubble, and in gold he just may have found it.
Even assclowns can pick a winner sometimes. But, being assclowns, they usually hold it on to it long enough for it to become a loser.
Casey again, LOL.
He is following the gold bugs line that the financial system will implode and gold will rocket to the moon and the ones left holding gold will be wealthy beyond their wild imaginations. Fantasy. If indeed the financial system were to implode your best investment would be a few guns and a lot of ammo.
People think they are good at the speculating game, that they can invest a few $100 a month and retire early and wealthy. Hence the fascination with the deflation we are experiencing. They forget the government hasn't even pulled out the big guns (minimum wage, SS/Medicare benefits, makework jobs and the FEDS ability to monetize ANYTHING). They (the gov and FED) will let deflation go a bit, but only so far. It cannot last, people with a long term (20+ year) investment horizon should be betting on more inflation.
Here's a quote from Bloomberg:
"Fifty-eight percent of independent investment advisers surveyed said they expect the Standard & Poor's 500 index to rise, an increase from 46 percent over the prior poll in January. One-third of advisers who said the S&P will rebound said it will rise more than 10 percent by the end of the year."
So I guess by your logic, the market is going to crash.
Idiots.........
While casey is pro-gold, he is pushing mining penny stocks as an "investment" strategy instead of physical gold/silver accumulation as long term wealth preservation
Where is that pic from? In the background a white woman is holding hands with two knee-grow children. Very odd for the 1930s.
BUY GOLD... Keith wakeup and smell the inflation!
Large U.S. bank collapse seen ahead
Tuesday August 19, 1:07 am ET
By Jan Dahinten
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.
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"The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he told a financial conference.
"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2001 to 2004.
"We have to see more consolidation in the financial sector before this is over," he said, when asked for early signs of an end to the crisis.
"Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said -- these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present form in a few years."
Rogoff's comments come as investors dumped shares of the largest U.S. home funding companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday after a newspaper report said government officials may have no choice but to effectively nationalize the U.S. housing finance titans.
A government move to recapitalize the two companies by injecting funds could wipe out existing common stock holders, the weekend Barron's story said. Preferred shareholders and even holders of the two government-sponsored entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt would also suffer losses.
Rogoff said multi-billion dollar investments by sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East in western financial firms may not necessarily result in large profits because they had not taken into account the broader market conditions that the industry faces.
"There was this view early on in the crisis that sovereign wealth funds could save everybody. Investment banks did something stupid, they lost money in the sub-prime, they're great buys, sovereign wealth funds come in and make a lot of money by buying them.
"That view neglects the point that the financial system has become very bloated in size and needed to shrink," Rogoff told the conference in Singapore, whose wealth funds GIC and Temasek have invested billions in Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
In response to the sharp U.S. housing retrenchment and turmoil in credit markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a cumulative 3.25 percentage points to 2 percent since mid-September.
Rogoff said the U.S. Federal Reserve was wrong to cut interest rates as "dramatically" as it did.
"Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States."
This isn't any different than Keith's flip-flop when he went from Ron Paul to Mitt Romney to now Hussein. Keith flip-flops more than Kerry and Hussein combined.
Just because a moron goes panning for Gold in a creek doesn't mean that gold is going down. I agree that Serin is an idiot, but inflation is a huge problem here. The Gold price is manipulated, because if it weren't, it would be a very clear signal that something is wrong. Do you think the Plunge Protection Team wants gold at $950 when the next batch of stuff hits the fan? Or do you think they would rather see it below $800?
They will create money without limit, and by the time the average person receives the money, it will have lost most of its value in circulation.
Dump your gold and other commodities. That rise in the producer price index, far more than the economists expected, means rising prices will be passed on to the consumers or the producers will go bankrupt.
Dollar does well in rising price environment. The dollar buys more as prices rise.
Duh
Anon said
"Dollar does well in rising price environment. The dollar buys more as prices rise."
---------------------------------
That is the most idiotic comment I have read all year. Congratulations!
HOLD gold
HOLD dollars
DUMP debt
Bloomberg -- ``There's no doubt we're in a period of stagflation now,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York who formerly worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Fed Board in Washington.
http://tinyurl.com/5erd7k
Anon said
"Dollar does well in rising price environment. The dollar buys more as prices rise."
---------------------------------
"That is the most idiotic comment I have read all year. Congratulations!"
I think they were trying to sound idiotic. I hope so anyway.
Even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.
Casey Serin is a shiftless, lazy moron but he just might be, by accident, right on this one.
There is little doubt that we are experiencing classic deflation as defined by a reduction in the money supply. However, I do not see consumer price deflation occurring.
While the US and Europe will tank, the BRIC countries will continue to grow, albeit more slowly. In aggregate, demand for all commodities will continue to rise even without rising demand from Europe and the US.
Also, Benny and the inkjets will get more and more creative in ways to keep wall st. firms afloat and will make sure that many dollars are created. The fact that these newly created dollars will be given to those creating very little material value means less productivity relative to the money supply and less value in the dollar itself.
The people on this blog need to make a decision. Do you allocate money to certain assets such as oil & gold and be defensive or do you try to time it. If you time it trust me its a 24hr a day job, alot of technical analysis and sentiment work, but make a decision, otherwise dont complain about oil from $145 to $113. If you have the time by all means trade it, if you dont just allocate some money to what you think is the long term trend.
LOL Just read an article about indian gold imports--you know for the wedding season.
They're importing FIFTY TONS. That's their imports for this MONTH. That's like 16 million shares of GLD. GLD has an average daily trade of 13 million.
And what do you think their imports will be NEXT month?
(Their offseason imports in June/July were more like 24-32 tons.)
Last year to June their total was 260 TONS.
LOL Ya gold is way overvalued--that's why the second biggest country in the world is SCRAMBLING to buy at these prices.
The problem with gold is, it's just not that useful. 15% of annual production for all your electronics, teeth, etc. 20% hoarded by investors. The rest - jewelry. Compare that with grains or energy products.
I am one of the deflation campers but this is an important consideration i hadn't thought of. And its fits the neoconecon models and methods.
"The fact that these newly created dollars will be given to those creating very little material value means less productivity relative to the money supply and less value in the dollar itself."
hmmmm... very good point.
Holy cow is this guy an idiot.
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